Yesterday after the Ottawa Senators were royally trounced by the Pittsburgh Penguins 7-3 to fall behind in the best-of-seven series 3-1, Daniel Alfredsson spoke to reporters. One asked him a fairly generic question that, for once, drew an original response. He was asked if it was feasible to beat Pittsburgh three straight times, which is the type of rote exercise that usually launches Athlete Answer Playlist 16, which starts “of course, we’ve beat them before, one game at a time…”

Alfredsson said “Probably not.” 

He added: “With their depth and power play right now it doesn’t look too good.”

Fearing that might come off as too negative (or that’s my guess, anyway), he continued with what might as well have been “blah blah blah”: “I know what we’re going to do – we’re going to go out and we’re going to play one hell of a game. That doesn’t worry me at all. We know the odds are against us in every way but we never quit.”

Okay then.

So what we have today is people around the hockey world weighing in on Alfie’s comments, some berating his leadership, some saying he’s rolling over, and some just flapping their internet gums because hell, that’s what we do now. I’m in the process myself.

So let’s get to it. Here are all the reasons Alfredsson’s brief initial comments were awesome: Read the rest of this entry »

Here’s the least fun question you’ll be asked all day. Would you rather take a flying knee to the junk…

…or a running uppercut to the junk?

Have fun contemplating this terrible question!

The Lead

The crowds have dispersed, the sun has risen, and the endless European domestic football festival is at an end. All that’s left is for the remaining all-night crowd still hopped up on goofballs to shuffle into the House of Panckakes that is the European Cup final this weekend.

But don’t forget the little guy wading through a sea of newsy detritus in his flourescent bib and litter spike, stabbing at whatever scrap remains and hoisting it up for all to see before disposing into the news cycle garbage bag. Like, for example, the lowly football writer who must now track every last banal transfer rumour to ping around the eletronic ether, just after he collects snap shots of everyone’s vacation destination.

Some of these developments will be hard news in a matter of time: hey there Mourinho, Juan Mata of Chelsea Football Club thinks you’re a pretty special guy. Others crumpled up rumours look and feel like actual news, but are not. Like PSG purportedly matching Man United’s wage bill in the hopes of dragging Wayne Rooney to Gaul where he belongs. Is it irresponsible to wildly speculate on Ronaldo moving to Chelsea? Not if you work for the right paper! Not to worry Madristas, chances are Gareth Bale will arrive to replace him should CR7 leave.

There is some bona fide news amid all of this. Well, news in its embryonic pre-confirmation form:

Uefa to offer Champions League place to Europa League winners gu.com/p/3g3z7/tw via @guardian

— Guardian sport (@guardian_sport) May 23, 2013

This is not an insignificant item; our man in Parks and Rec might consider breaking the rules and sticking it in his pocket for sake keeping instead of tossing it. Rolled in with that news is word of more stringent punishments for racist abuse, too.

And that’s mostly it. The festival’s over. But there’s word of a really great acoustic show at a bar in town tonight. If you get some time to rest up today before going over you should check it out; you might like their act. It’s a little raw at the moment and they definitely have niche sound, but their lyrical progression has been steady over the years. Now there’s word they might have an amazing new bassist in a little while. They’re called MLS. I’ll probably see you there, I just have to pick up a bit more trash first.

Win Probability Added is a weird little stat. In some ways, it should really be more pervasive. It doesn’t ask how or deal in “theoretical constructs” like DIPS-based pitching models or the nebulous concept of replacement level. Win Probability Added: how much did you contribute to your team’s chances for winning. Period. The end.

The whole “probability” thing is the likely stumbling block. How can you measure contributions when you don’t know what is to come? The meticulous records maintained by the accountants of the game help put its rich, storied, turn-based history into context. The codified result might not be everyone’s cup of tea but the fact-based history is hard to shake.

Like many theories, the idea of win probability added breaks down under extreme conditions. Take Jose Bautista, for example. He had himself a game yesterday against the Rays, supplying nearly all the offense in a 4-3 extra inning win. He homered twice, including a game-tying shot in the ninth off formerly vaunted closer Fernando Rodney and then won the game with a single in the 10th. He had four hits today and also added a stolen base for good measure.

The Blue Jays won and, almost single-handedly, Jose Bautista was the reason.

Read the rest of this entry »

I highlighted lots of numbers while assessing the fantasy implications of Michael Crabtree’s injury that’s set to keep him out until at least Week 12 this fall, which is nearly the entire fantasy regular season. Not good.

Now I’ve compiled a few more interesting digits from some people who do really awesome things with numbers and that device you use to add them together.

Read the rest of this entry »

In the latest installment of RaptorBlog Radio, Drew, Oliver and I get together to discuss the “sort of” firing of Bryan Colangelo, the current state of the Raptors organization, who may replace Colangelo, and what might become of Dwane Casey.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’re now down to the semi-finals of the NHL 14 Cover Vote campaign and it’s down to the final 4: Pavel Datsyuk, Martin Brodeur, John Tavares and Sergei Bobrovsky.

We say farewell to 2 Toronto Maple Leafs who made it far into the campaign. Pavel Datsyuk narrowly defeated Joffrey Lupul in what was the tightest matchup of the last round. James van Riemsdyk made things interesting for Martin Brodeur as they battled for a spot in the semi’s, but Brodeur’s increased social media activity got him the W.

Semi-final voting runs until May 26^th at 11:59 PM ET. The winner of the cover vote will be revealed during the Stanley Cup Finals.

Sergio Garcia would like to remind us that racism still exists. Unfortunately, his method for doing so was not a public service announcement, but a joke aimed at Tiger Woods that referred to fried chicken. There are two things that are awful about this: 1) The public reinforcement of an incredibly demeaning stereotype that the majority of us would love to do away with; and 2) His attempt at irreverence wasn’t even remotely funny.

It all started two weeks ago during the Third Round at The Players Championship at Sawgrass. Tiger Woods decided to take a wood out of his bag – signifying to the crowd that he was going for the green on the par-five second hole – just as Sergio Garcia was taking his swing. The crowd cheered Woods’s decision, causing Garcia to slice his shot.

During a rain delay, Garcia vented some of his frustration while speaking with the Golf Channel:

Well, obviously Tiger was on the left and it was my turn to hit. He moved all the crowd that he needed to move, I waited for that. You do have a feel when the other guy is going to hit and right as I was in the top of the back-swing, he must have pulled a wood and everybody started screaming. So that didn’t help very much.

… and so it began.

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