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Lookie here! Some rando on Twitter says so! Well, a Reuters Miami correspondent:

Perhaps not the most closely guarded secret in Major League Soccer at the moment. I emailed MLS’s vice president of communications Dan Courtemanche for comment on how far this thing has progressed and will get back to you if I hear anything that is remotely interesting.

But from a fantasists perspective, you know a league has arrived when the foreign owners start showing up trying to run the place.

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On David Beckham’s retirement, many words have been spoken – a large amount of these have achieved the important mark of being equally as bland as the man himself. But professional opinion-giver Chris Waddle managed the best opinion on Beckham. “You can go down a list of footballers since the Premier League and I don’t think David Beckham would probably be in the first 1000,” was what Chrissy said to the world so that everyone could hear. And he really did say that. I’m not lying. I’ve not taken him out of context here, stripping away valuable, clever thinking to make a sensible man sound silly. That’s what he said and meant.

What I think has happened here is that “Former England midfielder Chris Waddle has trashed the retiring David Beckham” essentially by mistake. Not that he didn’t mean what he was saying; but that he didn’t realise exactly what he meant. Something which regularly afflicts former football players. When Chris formed his opinion-which like all his opinions do have to be formed to happen at some point, they don’t appear from nowhere, despite all the evidence which suggests they do-he didn’t realise quite the implications of that opinion. He didn’t realise that he was essentially calling David Beckham a mid-table player.

You see, it comes down to maths. One thousand better Premier League players in the last 21 seasons: let’s try this out. Say that Top Four Player means Good Player. About 8 players start every single week for Top Four teams; that’s 32 Good Players per season. Multiply that by 21 seasons and you get 672 Good Players, except that number is meaningless because a lot of the Good Players in one season will be the same Good Players in the next season and the 672 figure counts them twice. My guess from this, anyway, is it leaves around four hundred Good Players in the Premier League era. Now, Chris Waddle has not only said Beckham wouldn’t fit into this 400 Top Four players, but he wouldn’t have him in the next 400 either. Or the next 200 after that.

I don’t want to say it, but I feel the question must at least be asked: has Chris Waddle, professional opinion-giver, got his numbers wrong? Because it feels like for someone to say that Beckham – however good exactly you think he is – is not in the best 1000 footballers to play in the Premier League requires one of two things: either 1. An extremely unusual interpretation of what the word ‘best’ means, or 2. A miscalculation, involving a large overestimation of the number of people to have actually played in the Premier League.

Now, far be for me to guess at what precisely Chris Waddle is thinking at any one time, but I think the second option is the most likely – the miscalculation. And if it is yet more Number Two from Chris Waddle, I think it might be, maybe, a little bit, good reason to question why exactly the people with camera lenses, tape-recorders and media jobs to fill keep going to ex-players for their opinions on the football. These are people who don’t realise what their own opinions are. Chris Waddle thinks David Beckham is outside of the top 1000 players to play in the Premier League. I’ve tried to contact him to ask just how many players he believes have played in the Premier League but heard nothing back, so have taken his answer to be “one squillion billion”. Chris Waddle has accidental opinions.

Okay, doubtless People Like Chris have some use. Laughing at them at fun fairs wouldn’t do, so sticking one of them on a panel as one of a few opinion-givers, with a very specific job talking about the ball-kicking bit in football, maybe, might be fine. But the deference to People Like Chris in football coverage should surely stop. Do I want to know how a dressing room works? A group of men coming together to do a job: I think I can guess. Is it interesting to hear an ex-pro’s opinion on how it must have felt so good to score that goal? I do not.

Where is this deference coming from? It’s got to be intellectual laziness from producers, because in terms of ex-player’s opinions, it goes two ways. Either it’s an insight which only they could give, on the dressing room or fame or how to kick a football, in which case we don’t have the exact insight but we have enough information to guess for ourselves or, in fact, it’s just not that interesting. Or it’s an insight which anyone could give, as is the case with Waddle on Beckham – because in terms of Beckham, Waddle is an outsider, just like anyone else. In both cases, we really shouldn’t value Chris Waddle’s.

Yet the people with money to spend on football coverage do. They choose to spend their cash on people who have opinions by mistake. David Beckham outside of the top 1000 Premier League players indeed, Chris. Well, you’re 1001 then, you idiot.

Hey guys, remember when David Beckham played in MLS? Here’s a 47 minute long ESPN documentary on the subject. Cheers to championsleague.ca for putting it all up in my grill.

> on March 13, 2012 in Cheltenham, England.

Hey! It’s the last one of these for the season. I’ve hope they’ve been helpful in some way to you. Next season I will include a running tally of the general success rate, and I’ll get some outside help to see when we’ve hit the magic number of statistical power to pass judgment on our models.

I’ve been noticing that Bloomberg, which is a paid analytics service, is often an outlier, sometimes by ten points on the odds. To be honest I’ve not been keeping track of their success rate closely, but something to keep an eye on for next year as well.

One or two interesting disagreements on odds, as would be expected with the evenly matched ties here. Newcastle vs Arsenal is of note in that regard, so take heed Spurs supporters! Particularly as your low end win estimate is a not too shabby 61% from—guess who!—Bloomberg.

And I may as well crow in a reminder here that you can vote for Counter Attack in a host of different categories over at EPL Talk.   If you like the site, you can vote for it here. If you like me (haha), you can vote here. And if you like the Counter Attack podcast, you can vote for it here.

Chelsea vs Everton

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 59 24 18
Euro Club Index 60 26 14
Pena.lt/y 52 28 20
Decision Technology 55 23 22
The Football Forecast 58 26 17
Bloomberg 48 25 26

Liverpool vs QPR

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 80 24 18
Euro Club Index 77 17 6
Pena.lt/y 71 18 11
Decision Technology 75 23 22
The Football Forecast 79 16 6
Bloomberg 68 20 12

Manchester City vs Norwich

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 75 18 9
Euro Club Index 81 14 4
Pena.lt/y 77 14 9
Decision Technology 76 16 8
The Football Forecast 82 14 5
Bloomberg 70 19 11

Newcastle vs Arsenal

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 16 22 64
Euro Club Index 27 31 42
Pena.lt/y 23 32 45
Decision Technology 26 23 50
The Football Forecast 15 28 58
Bloomberg 29 25 47

Southampton vs Stoke

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 56 27 20
Euro Club Index 41 31 27
Pena.lt/y 42 31 27
Decision Technology 50 28 23
The Football Forecast 50 27 23
Bloomberg 44 30 26

Swansea vs Fulham

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 55 26 21
Euro Club Index 48 30 22
Pena.lt/y 46 30 24
Decision Technology 46 26 29
The Football Forecast 52 27 21
Bloomberg 48 25 28

Tottenham vs Sunderland

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 77 17 8
Euro Club Index 73 20 8
Pena.lt/y 67 21 13
Decision Technology 73 18 10
The Football Forecast 69 21 10
Bloomberg 61 24 16

West Brom vs Man United

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 22 26 54
Euro Club Index 15 26 60
Pena.lt/y 13 30 57
Decision Technology 23 23 54
The Football Forecast 15 28 57
Bloomberg 26 23 51

West Ham vs Reading

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 59 25 17
Euro Club Index 56 28 17
Pena.lt/y 49 29 23
Decision Technology 50 23 27
The Football Forecast 55 26 19
Bloomberg 54 25 22

Wigan vs Aston Villa

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 47 28 28
Euro Club Index 46 30 24
Pena.lt/y 43 31 27
Decision Technology 40 25 35
The Football Forecast 45 28 27
Bloomberg 46 26 28

Merry Christmas, Twitter!

Merry Christmas, Twitter!

Chris Waddle, the former footballing semi-great, has opened his gob and the social media machine is now attempting to destroy him with Tweets. Anyway, this is the reason:

“I would say he has been a good player, I wouldn’t put him down as a great,” Waddle, 52, told BBC Radio 5 Live.

“You can go down a list of footballers since the Premier League and I don’t think David Beckham would probably be in the first 1,000.”

Considering there are over 500 players currently registered in the Premier League as of writing, this would put Beckham considerably far down the historical list. I’m quite excited as I’m certain this implies Martin Laursen is better than David Beckham.

Anyway, this would be piss in a bucket save for the fact that Mr. Waddle is employed as a media person by both ESPN and BBC Five Live. Most of us suffer under the naive impression that pundits are meant to help inform the football-liking public about the sport they’re watching.

I think we can all say with confidence that placing Beckham out of the top 1000 best Premier League players of all time isn’t very informative. However, the reason Counter Attack is even clackity-clacking over this is because it’s a good reminder that television pundits aren’t hired to inform, but to aggravate, and thereby draw attention.

You weren’t thinking about Chris Waddle yesterday, were you? Or even most if not all of 2013? And now you are. The end.

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The Lead

I’ve been sifting through posts from last August for some measure of prescience for this Premier League season and it seems the more things change, the more things change the same. One of my first 2012-13 posts involved rumours that Rooney wanted a transfer away from Manchester United. Although there is a delicious irony in the CA’s in-house Mancs questioning their manager’s approach: “questions must be asked of Alex Ferguson.” Not any more they don’t.

Still, there was no major development upsetting all expectation. Many smart, reasonable people predicted Manchester United to reclaim their Premier League honours, and here we are. We knew Gareth Bale was a good player. We knew Roberto Di Matteo might have a tough time justifying his European Cup win with a stable Premier League performance. We knew even as early as August that Brendan Rodgers’ Liverpool “project” might not be the dead cert some believed it would be. We knew that Mancini would go if he didn’t build on his title win (although the scorched earth approach to the backroom staff has been nothing short of stunning). I guess if I was to spend some real quality time thinking about it though, I wouldn’t have guessed Paolo Di Canio would be at Sunderland. That was messed up.

Anyway, perhaps not a classic season as far as last year’s incredible finish is concerned, but a fitting epitaph to the Old World Order. Sir Alex is gone. The FA Youth Cup winning class of ’92 is dispersed. Wayne Rooney’s career trajectory hangs in the balance. Newcastle’s reserve keeper Steve Harper is retiring. Gus Poyet is Premier League. Maybe next year the British Petroleum League won’t be as popular. Maybe the Bundesliga will. Good enough reason to start speaking Deutsch. Time will tell. Except if this season was any indication, sometimes it doesn’t tell us much of anything.

On Monday, because it’s a holiday and I have nothing better to do, I’ll do a Premier League by the numbers recap for you, a homage to my amazing former colleague Kristian Jack whose boots I continually fail to fill. For now, enjoy the final Exhibition Sunday.

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So Mario Balotelli is on Twitter, which means AC Milan’s social media manager or whomever takes care of these things is now in a mad rush to set up a meeting with the player to discuss best practices, what constitutes online defamation, and why Vine cannot and should not be used by any player, ever.

We also know this is Mario (beyond the obvious fact that he’s taken photos of himself and others in the club have verified it, you party poopers) because there’s currently no avatar, and the Tweets are a disjointed mash of teenage nonsense (he’s only just out of his teens, you know).

Or are they?

While most right thinking people would question whether annotating a player’s Tweets is the best use of one’s time, this wrong-thinking person begs to differ. And so, Balo’s Tweets, annotated.

Cuckoo! A delicious pun that tells us “what time it is” (Mario time presumably!), and plays on the popular media perception of Mario as crazy. The selfie included features some empty seat behind Mario in his car, inviting us to be a passenger on the adventure Balotelli plans to take us on via his account.

Standard new Twitter user fare. We’re also introduced to Mario’s friend.

Mario in his car with an unidentified stranger! Or who is that? I’m probably supposed to know and now seem like a total idiot. Typical.

Shout out to Sean Wright-Phillips. Look! SWP in the news again! Balo’s using Twitter to connect. Gathering steam now.

The dog lover in his element. A banal selfie. This is a bit boring now, isn’t it?

An RT for a ludicrous hashtag. This is getting chummy and terrible. Already a typical player account. Dreadful news.

Friends with Neymar. Don’t see much potential there.

Thank you brother and best of luck to you. So this has all the potential of being a shit account. My prediction: a lot of deleted Tweets, perhaps some poorly translated insults, or some lame apologies for on-field behaviour. A real disappointment all around. Will need some improvement.