The Lead
There’s a running theme among my baseball colleagues here at the score involving Old Newspaper Media touting the importance of game-to-game narrative over the simple fact that, as the cartoon says, sports is just a slightly weighted random number generator, so let’s not get too horny over a small sample size.
In football, there is simply no hard line between statistical science and an utterly compelling single-match storyline involving a slumping, over-priced Madrid-born striker scoring a breakaway goal in the dying minutes of a second leg semifinal against a vastly superior Barcelona team with which they have an on-going heated CL rivalry and that’s spent the last four years with Europe in its death grip (with numerical superiority on the night after the captain, John Terry, who famously missed a Champions League-winning penalty in the final in 2008, was sent off for kneeing Alexis Sanchez in the back), for a London-based club that has never won the Champions League owned by a wealthy Russian oilman and managed by an interim replacement who failed with West Bromwich Albion and who replaced the previous manager, a thirty-four year-old Wunderkind from Porto whom many compared with Jose Mourinho, Chelsea’s greatest ever manager who now manages the same Real Madrid team that has almost certainly won the La Liga title after beating that same Barcelona team 1-2 not four days ago.
In this case, the numbers fuel this incredible, obese narrative rather than put it in some sort of non-hyperventilated perspective. It was, on paper, an aberration. Barcelona conceded two away goals against Chelsea despite an 82% possession rate, and and 23 total shots to Chelsea’s 7 (although only 6 on target, which is where the tactics people will find their answer).
But the “aberrations” this season have piled up for Barcelona, and that goes beyond their El Clasico loss or the first leg 1-0 loss at Stamford Bridge last Wednesday. The seeds of last night’s head-spinning match, surely one of the greatest and most important Champions League semifinals of all time (at least since the European Cup reformation in 1992), were sown back at the end of November when Barcelona lost 1-0 to Getafe.
The defeat came after the first part of a Barca season that included a pair of of 2-2 draws against Valencia and, more alarmingly, Real Sociedad. In many ways, the loss was similar to last night’s display, with shots off the post and a maybe-maybe-not offside goal that didn’t count. It was a case of Barcelona not catching a lucky break and being slightly below their intimidating best.
Does this mean therefore the end of Pep Guardiola’s impressive Barcelona pressing side? Does Jonathan Wilson’s three year best-before date for possession-based clubs apply? It’s too early to say how European football will digest this moment, but it does seem similar to Porto’s 2004 Champions League win, which also came on the eve of a European Championship. In 2004, Greece stunned Europe with a well-drilled, conservative side that adapted well in transition between offensive and defensive formations, which mirrored Mourinho’s Porto. The Champions League final and the course of the Euros this June could cement yet another transitional moment in Europe.
Canada
Aron Winter says Toronto FC will make the playoffs.
Now or never for the 4-3-3.
Kara Lang on Canada’s difficult Olympic test.
Canadian Soccer Association presidential elections: what happens next?
How Montreal Impact shape up in the power rankings.
Two up, two down for the Vancouver Whitecaps.
England
John Terry could be suspended for some time. But he’s really sorry.
A history of European Cup final suspensions.
Was last night the most incredible feat since Liverpool’s 2005 comeback?
Aston Villa in deep trouble as Alex McLeish remains defiant.
Brendan Rodgers takes Mancini’s bait.
Rio Ferdinand cleared of some nonsense involving Twitter.
This week in Michael Owen Still Exists news.
Italy
Boateng the odd man out at Milan?
Conte pulls the whole “Five Finals” approach to Juventus’ Serie A season end run in.
Spain
Will Pep Guardiola stay beyond the end of this season?
Mourinho meanwhile declares he will stay at Real Madrid.
Ronaldo wary of Bayern Munich firepower.
Guardiola defends Messi over missed penalty.
Germany
FC Kaiserslautern, the yo-yo tales.
Bits and bobs
Swiss Ramble on the importance of Champions League revenue.
Maradona threatens to quit Al Wasl.
The Reddit soccer community is pretty clever sometimes.
I hope you play that Gary Neville soundclip during every podcast from now on.
I don’t know how anyone could not laugh every time they hear it.
Best sound clip since the “throw up”
Saying Greece played any type of offensive formation at Euro 04 is an aberration in itself.
Is this the dawn of the “Turtling” tactic? 10 men within 20 yards of your own goal and a lone man up front with pace and strength?
If it can stop “The Greatest Team”, you can bet that others will copy it.
Switzerland used it to great effect at World Cup 2010. Fortunately, Spain still found a way to defeat the tactic and its proliferation was delayed. But no more?
It can be defeated if the team has guys who can actually score. In La Liga, Barca’s second best scorer is Sanchez with 11; for Real it’s Higuain at 21, then Benzema at 18. Barcelona decided to rely on Messi for production once Villa was hurt. In hindsight, this was a huge mistake and they have now paid for it.
This tactic can clearly be defeated. Barcelona actually “defeated” the tactic, but Mesi did not convert the penalty.
I still believe this to be an aberration and not a trend. But you can bet that many out there will not believe this and will copy the tactic.
I also believe that Real Madrid is simply the better team this year.
Except that Switzerland won that game.. ;)
I am not a Chelsea fan, but i am already sick of the bullshit criticisms of Chelsea’s tactics. They were defending a lead in an away match against a posession-based team that can cut teams apart. WTF did you think they were going to do – play an all out balls-to-the-wall attack? Bunkering down, especially when you are a man down, is a pretty obvious tactic. And guess what, it worked. Fabregas can bemoan the long ball, but if you can’t defend against a routine ball over the top, I don’t think you are the best team ever. Funny thing about footie – the better team on the night usually wins. Instead of belittling Chelsea for playing a strong defensive game, shut the fuck up and accept that they got it done.
Well said man. Manchester United decided to give the world a spectacle last year and they paid dearly for it. The thing is Barca forces you to play defensive. I mean after running around chasing the ball for a good 5mins, (without touching it once) you might as well give up and protect the back of your net.
Im just happy there is no Barca in the final because, if they play Bayern, it will be a blow out. And if they play Real Madrid, it will be too slow paced because Jose wants the champions league at all cost and he will do everything to pile his net with bodies. At least in this final, Chelsea would take the initiative to attack, and either Bayern or Real would also want to attack. It will be a spectacle.
As for Barca, I dont think this is the end of their hegemony. They will be back, but I feel the wind blowing Madrid’s way slightly.
And for the record, that isn’t directed at the comment above – it seems that every media outlet has some story putting an asterisk beside last night’s game or explaining why the better team lost. Fuck that.
“The better team“ is such a vague concept that it doesn`t mean anything anyway….that`s the beauty of math. The team that scored more goals over two legs won.
Here is a pretty interesting article about financial fair play in the Championship.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/17841566
Any club that has over £6 million in losses will be put under a transfer embargo.
Lack of depth seems to be the problem Barcelona has. They don’t have people for Messi, Xavi and Iniesta, who looked tired and unfocused when compared to their peak performances in the year. They simply couldn’t muster a clear response. So Barcelona has some choices, because I don’t think they will find a replacement player for those three – sorry Fabregas. They will have to come up with a ‘second line’ a hybrid-style of play able of winning matches without the flash and style so they can rest their players down the stretch. This actually might have been the problem for the first part of La Liga, when Pep tried to put the second string team together but failed. Maybe some of the younger guys will eventually ‘figure it out’.
Also, the defence and maybe with it the high-line pressure in general has to be dropped back. As intelligent as the players are, they do not have the pace anymore to occupy the space well.
Really its not dead and done, Barcelona still dominated the games and failed on its chances – if Pep can figure out how to make their ‘chances’ easier or give the players more energy when its needed, then Barcelona still has two or three years.