James Grayson tweeted a link today to a piece from June of this year on whether Roberto Di Matteo had in fact fared better than Andre Villas-Boas while at Chelsea, at least as far as total shots ratio (TSR) was concerned. The results were remarkable.

The teams that finished in the the top four spots in the Premier League last year maintained on average a TSR in the .600-.700 range. Di Matteo’s TSR since taking over Chelsea from AVB ahead of the current season hovered around or just below the .500 range, which would be commensurate over an entire season with a mid-table points total.

I plotted Di Matteo’s TSR for the season so far, expecting a higher average based on some impressive results and a score of solid summer purchases in Oscar and Eden Hazard. His season average, excluding league cup results, was .498.

Again, TSR should be taken as an indication of a team’s ability to control the ball, which shows up in the ratios to shots for and shots against. It strongly correlates with final table position. It’s clear that Di Matteo’s new iteration of Chelsea, despite it’s impressive results in the European Cup in particular, was not a dominant side in the long-term. We can deride Roman Abramovich for hiring him, but his less obvious numbers were alarming to say the least.

Comments (8)

  1. Well seeing at Torres was the loan forward for 95% of the season, these numbers don’t surprise me one bit. We were always outshot!

  2. I’d be interested to see a TSR correlation comparison between League play and Champions League play. Does the correlation stay when teams are more evenly matched, particularly in the later rounds?

    • There’s actually a drop off in the CL. Grayson told me on Twitter his Premier League TSR is .546, which is commensurate with a ~62 point finish.

      • I suppose I’d be wondering if top teams being head-and-shoulders better than their leagues drives the higher TSR, or whether TSR itself drives table position. Corollary to that, is the correlation between finish and TSR hold true in the Champions League? One would assume Chelsea’s TSR to be sub-.500 in the knockout round of last years CL, weakening that correlation somewhat, but is thier performance an outlier or statistically predictable?

        I dunno. That sounds like a whole lotta math. FML, I’m just an accountant.

        • I suspect TSR wouldn’t correlate to a single season in the CL, but would predict performance over several seasons in trying to get past the group stage. A good question to put to Grayson!

  3. I’m a big Juve fan and I’d rate our back 4 quite highly and our midfield to a certain degree…

    I was shocked how badly Chelsea was outplayed in the middle of the park. And even up top, they were giving way too much space for the strikers to hold up the ball.

    Not sure if the team quit on him or what, but they looked to have some major issues.

    • Chelsea players quitting on their own manager? Chelsea players having major off the field issues? This is new…..

  4. I honestly feel bad for this guy..

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