I’ve already made my arguments this morning for Jose Mourinho’s continued stay at Real Madrid. Now, a brief look at his club’s numbers against Barcelona’s under Tito Vilanova. Note these are limited to La Liga and the Champions League.

Barcelona’s total shot ratio to this point of the season is 0.616. For reference, Barcelona finished second in the league last season with a TSR above .650 (for more on the predictive power of TSR, read James Grayson’s post on the subject).

Real Madrid’s TSR meanwhile was .677, higher than their average from last season when they won La Liga. There is solid evidence Real Madrid has been more dominant on the pitch in both the league and in Europe.

Meanwhile, Barcelona’s PDO was 1091. Because PDO makes a rapid regression to the mean of 1000, it’s a good measurement of luck. The higher a PDO, the luckier a team.

Real Madrid’s PDO? 993. That indicates a likely correction for both sides as the final two thirds of the season progresses, and gives a bit of evidence on behalf of the explanation that Real Madrid’s poor start is somewhat down to luck. It certainly gives heft to the argument that Real Madrid’s “poor form” could help carry the club back into the title race.

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