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I’ve long been fascinated by predictive metrics along the lines of betting, mostly because, at the moment, I’m far more fascinated with analytics that takes into account what football is than what football should be.

As that’s the case, and because I think it’s pretty funny for someone who has never put any kind of money on sports in their entire life to post betting lines on a soccer blog, I thought it would be instructive to compare some analytics models online to both popular predictions and betting lines.

Basically I’d eventually like a mix of sites that make predictions based on their internal models, the outliers from betting sites which likely determine lines using similar methods, and a site that runs predictions based on popular votes. When I’m not lazy, I’ll include some actual betting chatter. This is just a start.

Just a few notes: you’ll notice that the non-Premier League predictions look terrible. Any help in finding some better sources for analytics-friendly continental betting, holla!

 

You will also notice that there are some predictions missing. Just waiting for/encouraging the bloggers in question to post ASAP.

And in general, if you know of or would like another site added to these (and if you can find a popular votes-based prediction site for all of Europe), please send them over.

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 37% 32% 32%
Odds Checker Aggregate  44% 28% 27%
Pena.lt/y 36% 32% 32%
Wallpapering Frog
Decision Technology 39% 23% 38%

Tottenham vs Manchester City

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 35% 32% 34%
Odds Checker Aggregate 31% 28% 42%
Pena.lt/y 31% 33% 36%
Wallpapering Frog
Decision Technology 38% 27% 35%

Juventus vs AC Milan

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 50% 29% 21%
Odds Checker Aggregate 57% 26% 19%

Osasuna vs Real Sociedad

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 44% 27% 29%
Odds Checker Best Odds 32% 30% 40%

So obviously you’ll note some discrepancies.

Still, as it stands, this post is kind of a piece of crap. I need your help to expand it. Would be fun to also add discussion of where models differ, how betting lines are determined, that sort of thing.