One game left, so one match prediction this week. The paucity of Champions League-related models is a testament to just how unpredictable these games can be, what with the limited sample size and the relative parity of talent in most of the fixtures. Except for this one. Along with the rest of the world, both the lines and the models predict a likely Bayern win.

On a side note, I read with interest Martin Eastwood’s notes on his prediction model from the Premier League, and I thought it would be interesting to run the success rate of the models next year as a measure of return on investment. A far more interesting way to illustrate whether a model is working is to do a running calculation of the ROI, no? I’ll sort it out for you.


Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 21 24 55
Euro Club Index 37 63
Decision Technology 36 64