Happy New Year! I haven’t done one of these in a while, and rather than knock off a column today, I thought I’d post this and get back into the habit.
First, some inside baseball. I’m thinking I might adjust the PDO to reflect a ten game rolling average to give a better picture of the shifting spectre of random chance. After 20 games, it’s not really useful to include shot and save percentages from games 1 through 10…the whole point is PDO regresses toward the mean. But this is still a good enough guide.
Man City and Chelsea continue to look dominant in shots ratio, and their PDO is likely augmented by skill. They are both clubs in form. Arsenal are also rocking a high save percentage, but their shot dominance should be cause for concern over the remaining 18 games of the season. Even so, they have taken the most final third touches, though this may also come down to Arsenal’s patient approach in the opposition end. Elsewhere, Spurs are getting back to normal under Tim Sherwood, with a much improved shot percentage in only a few games in charge.
On the other side of the table, Crystal Palace appear to be suffering from a low PDO, along both shot and save percentages. Aston Villa and Man United look just about where they should be. And Cardiff are in very rough shape. Hopefully Solskjaer will be able to lift up that shot ratio in short order.
Total shots ratio is shots for/(shots for + shots against), and it calculates shot dominance. It correlates very well to points finish in the table…for a better explanation, read this. In a few weeks’ time, we will include an expected points total in the table.
PDO meanwhile is just (sh% + sv%)*1000, and it is a rough measurement for luck, as these statistics tend to regress to the mean over time (except at the extreme positive end). A team with a low PDO should be expected to improve as the season progresses.
Finally, final third touches are a good predictor of future goals scored. Grayson has a post on the matter here, which breaks down the work of Mark Taylor.
|Team||P||Pts||TSR||PDO||Sh%||Sv%||Final 3rd Touches|
|West Bromwich Albion||20||21||0.495||1036||34.3||69.3||3354|