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Happy New Year! I haven’t done one of these in a while, and rather than knock off a column today, I thought I’d post this and get back into the habit.

First, some inside baseball. I’m thinking I might adjust the PDO to reflect a ten game rolling average to give a better picture of the shifting spectre of random chance. After 20 games, it’s not really useful to include shot and save percentages from games 1 through 10…the whole point is PDO regresses toward the mean. But this is still a good enough guide.

Man City and Chelsea continue to look dominant in shots ratio, and their PDO is likely augmented by skill. They are both clubs in form. Arsenal are also rocking a high save percentage, but their shot dominance should be cause for concern over the remaining 18 games of the season. Even so, they have taken the most final third touches, though this may also come down to Arsenal’s patient approach in the opposition end. Elsewhere, Spurs are getting back to normal under Tim Sherwood, with a much improved shot percentage in only a few games in charge.

On the other side of the table, Crystal Palace appear to be suffering from a low PDO, along both shot and save percentages. Aston Villa and Man United look just about where they should be. And Cardiff are in very rough shape. Hopefully Solskjaer will be able to lift up that shot ratio in short order.

Explanation

Total shots ratio is shots for/(shots for + shots against), and it calculates shot dominance. It correlates very well to points finish in the table…for a better explanation, read this. In a few weeks’ time, we will include an expected points total in the table.

PDO meanwhile is just (sh% + sv%)*1000, and it is a rough measurement for luck, as these statistics tend to regress to the mean over time (except at the extreme positive end). A team with a low PDO should be expected to improve as the season progresses.

Finally, final third touches are a good predictor of future goals scored. Grayson has a post on the matter here, which breaks down the work of Mark Taylor.

 

Team P Pts TSR PDO Sh% Sv% Final 3rd Touches
Arsenal 20 45 0.555 1127 35.5 77.2 4742
Manchester City 20 44 0.626 1137 45.6 68.1 4454
Chelsea 20 43 0.614 1041 34.2 69.8 4076
Liverpool 20 39 0.566 1089 35.7 73.3 4035
Everton 20 38 0.567 1022 28.6 73.6 3968
Tottenham 20 37 0.614 934 22.4 70.9 3964
Manchester United 20 34 0.525 1055 34.7 70.7 4163
Newcastle United 20 33 0.544 1018 30.2 71.6 3189
Southampton 20 27 0.554 969 30.2 66.7 3476
Aston Villa 20 23 0.468 959 26.0 69.9 2684
Hull 20 23 0.459 1035 34.4 69.1 2960
Stoke 20 22 0.414 1020 31.7 70.3 2957
Swansea 20 21 0.512 936 29.5 64.1 3793
West Bromwich Albion 20 21 0.495 1036 34.3 69.3 3354
Norwich 20 20 0.434 933 23.3 70.0 3348
Fulham 20 19 0.374 940 27.6 66.4 2937
Cardiff 20 18 0.363 997 26.8 72.9 2762
Crystal Palace 20 17 0.459 850 19.1 65.9 2800
West Ham 20 15 0.419 1019 30.2 71.7 3266
Sunderland 20 14 0.436 901 23.8 66.3 3025