Archive for the ‘Friday Football Predictions’ Category

104717211

One game left, so one match prediction this week. The paucity of Champions League-related models is a testament to just how unpredictable these games can be, what with the limited sample size and the relative parity of talent in most of the fixtures. Except for this one. Along with the rest of the world, both the lines and the models predict a likely Bayern win.

On a side note, I read with interest Martin Eastwood’s notes on his prediction model from the Premier League, and I thought it would be interesting to run the success rate of the models next year as a measure of return on investment. A far more interesting way to illustrate whether a model is working is to do a running calculation of the ROI, no? I’ll sort it out for you.

Cheers!

Borussia Dortmund vs Bayern Munich

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 21 24 55
Euro Club Index 37 63
Decision Technology 36 64

> on March 13, 2012 in Cheltenham, England.

Hey! It’s the last one of these for the season. I’ve hope they’ve been helpful in some way to you. Next season I will include a running tally of the general success rate, and I’ll get some outside help to see when we’ve hit the magic number of statistical power to pass judgment on our models.

I’ve been noticing that Bloomberg, which is a paid analytics service, is often an outlier, sometimes by ten points on the odds. To be honest I’ve not been keeping track of their success rate closely, but something to keep an eye on for next year as well.

One or two interesting disagreements on odds, as would be expected with the evenly matched ties here. Newcastle vs Arsenal is of note in that regard, so take heed Spurs supporters! Particularly as your low end win estimate is a not too shabby 61% from—guess who!—Bloomberg.

And I may as well crow in a reminder here that you can vote for Counter Attack in a host of different categories over at EPL Talk.   If you like the site, you can vote for it here. If you like me (haha), you can vote here. And if you like the Counter Attack podcast, you can vote for it here.

Chelsea vs Everton

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 59 24 18
Euro Club Index 60 26 14
Pena.lt/y 52 28 20
Decision Technology 55 23 22
The Football Forecast 58 26 17
Bloomberg 48 25 26

Liverpool vs QPR

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 80 24 18
Euro Club Index 77 17 6
Pena.lt/y 71 18 11
Decision Technology 75 23 22
The Football Forecast 79 16 6
Bloomberg 68 20 12

Manchester City vs Norwich

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 75 18 9
Euro Club Index 81 14 4
Pena.lt/y 77 14 9
Decision Technology 76 16 8
The Football Forecast 82 14 5
Bloomberg 70 19 11

Newcastle vs Arsenal

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 16 22 64
Euro Club Index 27 31 42
Pena.lt/y 23 32 45
Decision Technology 26 23 50
The Football Forecast 15 28 58
Bloomberg 29 25 47

Southampton vs Stoke

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 56 27 20
Euro Club Index 41 31 27
Pena.lt/y 42 31 27
Decision Technology 50 28 23
The Football Forecast 50 27 23
Bloomberg 44 30 26

Swansea vs Fulham

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 55 26 21
Euro Club Index 48 30 22
Pena.lt/y 46 30 24
Decision Technology 46 26 29
The Football Forecast 52 27 21
Bloomberg 48 25 28

Tottenham vs Sunderland

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 77 17 8
Euro Club Index 73 20 8
Pena.lt/y 67 21 13
Decision Technology 73 18 10
The Football Forecast 69 21 10
Bloomberg 61 24 16

West Brom vs Man United

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 22 26 54
Euro Club Index 15 26 60
Pena.lt/y 13 30 57
Decision Technology 23 23 54
The Football Forecast 15 28 57
Bloomberg 26 23 51

West Ham vs Reading

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 59 25 17
Euro Club Index 56 28 17
Pena.lt/y 49 29 23
Decision Technology 50 23 27
The Football Forecast 55 26 19
Bloomberg 54 25 22

Wigan vs Aston Villa

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 47 28 28
Euro Club Index 46 30 24
Pena.lt/y 43 31 27
Decision Technology 40 25 35
The Football Forecast 45 28 27
Bloomberg 46 26 28

143915824

Hey gang! It’s that time again. I want to start off and just put it out there that any feedback on what you’d like to see in these would be great. If enough people want it, I can average the predictions for each game. For next season, I’ll also be running a success total to see over the long term which models perform best against the house odds.

And again, I’d love to go beyond the Premier League but the vast majority of non-betting odds models deal with the Big Show, so until that changes here we are.

On another note, Counter Attack is pleased to note we’ve been nominated for several end of year awards by EPL Talk. If you like the site, you can vote for it here. If you like me (haha), you can vote here. And if you like the Counter Attack podcast, you can vote for it here.

Notes

Pretty straightforward week. Some notable exceptions. Fulham vs Liverpool has a bit of a tossup flavour, and a bet on the home side could turn out nicely. Ditto for QPR vs Newcastle. Sunderland vs Southampton shows the most difference from the betting models and the lines, so that might be one to risk on as well.

Aston Villa vs Chelsea

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 22 26 54
Euro Club Index 23 30 48
Pena.lt/y 21 32 47
Decision Technology 24 22 54
The Football Forecast 15 28 57
Bloomberg 21 23 57

Stoke vs Tottenham

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 22 28 52
Euro Club Index 27 31 42
Pena.lt/y 24 32 44
Decision Technology 21 28 51
The Football Forecast 22 30 47
Bloomberg 28 29 43

Everton vs West Ham

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 65 22 13
Euro Club Index 66 13 11
Pena.lt/y 67 20 12
Decision Technology 61 22 17
The Football Forecast 63 23 14
Bloomberg 55 25 20

Fulham vs Liverpool

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 26 22 48
Euro Club Index 34 32 34
Pena.lt/y 31 33 36
Decision Technology 25 23 52
The Football Forecast 23 30 46
Bloomberg 23 24 53

Norwich vs West Brom

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 44 29 28
Euro Club Index 41 31 28
Pena.lt/y 37 32 31
Decision Technology 38 26 36
The Football Forecast 32 30 38
Bloomberg 38 26 36

QPR vs Newcastle

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 29 29 42
Euro Club Index 30 31 39
Pena.lt/y 32 32 35
Decision Technology 35 25 40
The Football Forecast 39 29 31
Bloomberg 36 27 37

Sunderland vs Southampton

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 36 30 34
Euro Club Index 51 29 20
Pena.lt/y 49 29 22
Decision Technology 35 28 37
The Football Forecast 43 29 28
Bloomberg 36 29 35

Man United vs Swansea City

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 75 18 8
Euro Club Index 81 15 5
Pena.lt/y 76 15 9
Decision Technology 68 19 13
The Football Forecast 78 16 6
Bloomberg 65 20 16

Arsenal vs Wigan

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 75 18 9
Euro Club Index 74 19 7
Pena.lt/y 71 18 11
Decision Technology 74 16 11
The Football Forecast 79 15 5
Bloomberg 64 21 16

Reading vs Man City

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Odds Checker Aggregate 13 22 67
Euro Club Index 13 24 63
Pena.lt/y 8 28 64
Decision Technology 15 20 65
The Football Forecast 11 26 63
Bloomberg 15 21 65

164284723

I’ve recently sworn off the Premier League soap opera machine, and yet I have yet to find any decent predictive models for continental football. Or even MLS ffs. So if you know a guy who knows a guy who’s half decent at this sort of thing, let me know, okay?

Some notes: I’m still waiting on Wallpapering Fog to make his calculations, so I will update as I get them. As for odds…a lot of convergence this week, which is pretty neat. The major exception seems to be Man United vs Chelsea. The lines give more credit to the Blues than some of the predictive models; might be a good bet.

And so here are how a bunch of different models assessed the odds on this week’s games. Happy gambling, inveterate scum!

Tottenham vs Southampton 

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 74 19 7
Odds Checker Aggregate 67 21 12
Pena.lt/y 68 20 12
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 67 20 13
The Football Forecast 67 22 11
Bloomberg 55 25 20

Fulham vs Reading

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 62 25 13
Odds Checker Aggregate 58 26 18
Pena.lt/y 59 25 16
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 52 24 24
The Football Forecast 57 25 18
Bloomberg 50 27 23

West Ham United vs Newcastle United

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 42 31 27
Odds Checker Aggregate 42 27 31
Pena.lt/y 37 32 32
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 42 24 34
The Football Forecast 53 26 20
Bloomberg 42 28 31

Swansea vs Manchester City

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 18 28 54
Odds Checker Aggregate 19 26 55
Pena.lt/y 15 31 54
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 19 23 58
The Football Forecast 17 29 54
Bloomberg 23 25 52

West Brom vs Wigan

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 51 29 20
Odds Checker Aggregate 41 29 31
Pena.lt/y 54 27 19
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 48 25 27
The Football Forecast 60 24 16
Bloomberg 47 27 26

Norwich vs Aston Villa

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 42 31 27
Odds Checker Aggregate 38 29 33
Pena.lt/y 44 30 26
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 39 26 36
The Football Forecast 45 28 27
Bloomberg 45 28 27

QPR vs Arsenal

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 14 26 60
Odds Checker Aggregate 11 20 69
Pena.lt/y 13 30 57
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 18 20 62
The Football Forecast 12 26 62
Bloomberg 23 27 50

Liverpool vs Everton

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 46 30 24
Odds Checker Aggregate 50 28 23
Pena.lt/y 44 30 26
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 52 23 25
The Football Forecast 54 27 19
Bloomberg 48 27 25

Man United vs Chelsea

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 60 26 14
Odds Checker Aggregate 44 28 29
Pena.lt/y 60 24 16
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 46 24 30
The Football Forecast 62 25 14
Bloomberg 46 25 30

Sunderland vs Stoke City

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 45 31 25
Odds Checker Aggregate 47 29 25
Pena.lt/y 45 30 25
Wallpapering Fog
Decision Technology 40 32 29
The Football Forecast 48 28 45
Bloomberg 36 33 31

104717754

So for better or for worse, most of the predictive models are focused on the Big Show in England. If any of you have a good lead on a decent predictive model for the continent, let me know. In any case, here are the aggregated betting models for all this weekend’s matches. All figures are percentage probabilities duh duh duh. Draw your own conclusions and place your bets.

Man City vs West Ham

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 79 16 5
Odds Checker Aggregate 78 16 6
Pena.lt/y 78 13 9
Wallpapering Fog 73 17 10
Decision Technology 76.8 14.8 8.3
The Football Forecast 78.78 15.62 5.6
Bloomberg 63.7 14.1 22.2

Stoke City vs Norwich City

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  51  29  20
Odds Checker Aggregate  43  30  27
Pena.lt/y  47  29  24
Wallpapering Fog  68  19  14
Decision Technology  42.5  29.4  28.1
The Football Forecast  48.3  27.5  24.2
Bloomberg  41.6  30.8  27.6

Everton vs Fulham

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  60  26  14
Odds Checker Aggregate  65  22  13
Pena.lt/y  58  25  17
Wallpapering Fog  59  21  20
Decision Technology  58.8  22.8  18.4
The Football Forecast  62  23.6  14.4
Bloomberg  55.6  27.7  18.8

Southampton vs West Brom

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  41  31  28
Odds Checker Aggregate  52  27  21
Pena.lt/y  39  31  29
Wallpapering Fog  26  22  52
Decision Technology  51.5  24.2  24.3
The Football Forecast  44.2  28.7  27.1
Bloomberg  42.5  28.0  29.5

Wigan vs Tottenham

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  25  31  44
Odds Checker Aggregate  26  27  47
Pena.lt/y  20  32  48
Wallpapering Fog  35  18  47
Decision Technology  21.1  23.9  55
The Football Forecast  17.6  28.6  53.8
Bloomberg  25.6  26.6  47.9

Newcastle vs Liverpool

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  38  32  31
Odds Checker Aggregate  33  28  40
Pena.lt/y  35  32  33
Wallpapering Fog  32  22  46
Decision Technology  34.6  23.5  41.9
The Football Forecast  24.0  30.1  45.9
Bloomberg  26.7  26.2  47.1

Reading vs QPR

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  50  29  20
Odds Checker Aggregate  38  29  33
Pena.lt/y  44  30  26
Wallpapering Fog  20  19  60
Decision Technology  44.4  24.2  31.3
The Football Forecast  46  27.9  26.1
Bloomberg  35.1  29.6  35.3

Chelsea vs Swansea

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  73  20  8
Odds Checker Aggregate  74  18  8
Pena.lt/y  65  22  13
Wallpapering Fog  61  23  16
Decision Technology  71.4  17.1  11.5
The Football Forecast  68.9  20.7  10.4
Bloomberg  60.2  22.2  17.6

Arsenal vs Manchester United

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  34  32  35
Odds Checker Aggregate  43  28  29
Pena.lt/y  31  32  37
Wallpapering Fog  38  17  44
Decision Technology  45.9  24.1  30
The Football Forecast  36.7  31.2  32.1
Bloomberg  39.2  26  34.8

Aston Villa vs Sunderland

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index  49  30  22
Odds Checker Aggregate  43  29  29
Pena.lt/y  40  31  29
Wallpapering Fog  39  29  32
Decision Technology  46.8  26.5  26.7
The Football Forecast  30.2  29.9  40
Bloomberg  36.3  30.7  33.1

104717211

I’ve long been fascinated by predictive metrics along the lines of betting, mostly because, at the moment, I’m far more fascinated with analytics that takes into account what football is than what football should be.

As that’s the case, and because I think it’s pretty funny for someone who has never put any kind of money on sports in their entire life to post betting lines on a soccer blog, I thought it would be instructive to compare some analytics models online to both popular predictions and betting lines.

Basically I’d eventually like a mix of sites that make predictions based on their internal models, the outliers from betting sites which likely determine lines using similar methods, and a site that runs predictions based on popular votes. When I’m not lazy, I’ll include some actual betting chatter. This is just a start.

Just a few notes: you’ll notice that the non-Premier League predictions look terrible. Any help in finding some better sources for analytics-friendly continental betting, holla!

 

You will also notice that there are some predictions missing. Just waiting for/encouraging the bloggers in question to post ASAP.

And in general, if you know of or would like another site added to these (and if you can find a popular votes-based prediction site for all of Europe), please send them over.

Liverpool vs Chelsea

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 37% 32% 32%
Odds Checker Aggregate  44% 28% 27%
Pena.lt/y 36% 32% 32%
Wallpapering Frog
Decision Technology 39% 23% 38%

Tottenham vs Manchester City

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 35% 32% 34%
Odds Checker Aggregate 31% 28% 42%
Pena.lt/y 31% 33% 36%
Wallpapering Frog
Decision Technology 38% 27% 35%

Juventus vs AC Milan

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 50% 29% 21%
Odds Checker Aggregate 57% 26% 19%

Osasuna vs Real Sociedad

Source Home Win Draw Away Win
Euro Club Index 44% 27% 29%
Odds Checker Best Odds 32% 30% 40%

So obviously you’ll note some discrepancies.

Still, as it stands, this post is kind of a piece of crap. I need your help to expand it. Would be fun to also add discussion of where models differ, how betting lines are determined, that sort of thing.