Mario Balotelli scored the winner for Italy, who beat Mexico 2-1 in Brazil. Here is the goal that did it. Always him. Always Mario.


That is the least surprising thing I’ve ever read.


Not much else to say about this but wow. Andrea Pirlo became the fifth player to record 100 caps for Italy today. He marked the occasion by reminding us just how good he really is. Bellissimo.

Neymar strikes in Brazil

The Confederations Cup is underway in Brazil and one of the main attractions–Barcelona newcomer Neymar–has already stolen the show. Less than 3 minutes in the Brazilian star opened the scoring against Japan.

Bolton Wanderers v Swansea City - FA Cup Fourth Round

A director who worked with him once said of Owen Coyle that there was “a touch of the Bill Shankly about him.” That was in 2007, but unfortunately for said director, even hindsight does not fix a broken brain. Supposing, as we must, that the guy was referring to The Bill Shankly rather than A Bill Shankly, and that the ‘touch’ related to managerial ability rather than sexual prowess, it would not be unreasonable to say that Coyle has fallen short of Shankly. Coyle, for instance, has missed out on all of the European Cups played out during his career so far, via relegation and unemployment, and in fact has won only a playoff title since the remark was made. Small but significant details.

I’ll go further. I think Owen Coyle is not only not good in comparison to Bill Shankly, but someone who could and should be written-off on his own merits. Alone, not being Bill Shankly is not so bad. Many people are not Bill Shankly. I myself am not Bill Shankly. Yet. That isn’t the point here: Owen Coyle is not Bill Shankly, but he’s also a fiercely inadequate Owen Coyle. Me and four friends brainstormed for three hours and could only come up with his wearing shorts as a managerial strength, and even then the group was split on whether this was something which should be punished or rewarded. (I was strongly pro-short.)

All of which leads to the problem of Coyle’s appointment as Wigan manager today. The first thing it made me think of was the letter ‘y’, over and over again, which was odd, because I rarely think in terms of single letters. But then I realised I wasn’t thinking of the letter ‘y’ at all, I was thinking ‘Why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why why?’. Which also explained why the letter ‘o’ had also cropped up in my thinking: ‘Why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why oh why?’

If the world was a meritocracy – if football was a meritocracy – there is no way the man I have begun to describe here would have got a job at reasonably appealing club like Wigan, even though they’ve just been relegated. The possibility of Coyle, who at Bolton showed such little aptitude for managing a football team, getting an almost equivalent job mere months after that incident, could not happen in a world which rewarded only Good Things. In the case of Coyle, failure – Bolton weren’t just relegated, they then started to drift towards the bottom of the Championship – has been rewarded.

And the reason failure has been rewarded is (if you’re going to name one reason) because football, like most industries, goes with what it knows. Coyle might well have done a great interview to get the job (although, have you heard him speak?), but the man he is supposed to have been up against is Steve McLaren, another man who has now failed at more jobs than he has succeeded. In football, the same names get all the jobs. The principle behind this makes some sense: when you have seen what a potential manager can do already, you know more about them, so you’re in control of the risk when you appoint them. Fine. But if what you know about the established figure is that they aren’t very good, then the useful thing about this knowledge should, surely, be that it enables you to avoid that figure?

It’s this second bit where football seems to struggle. Success is rewarded, but failure isn’t punished. If you like: The Market doesn’t work. You end up with Owen Coyle’s legs in charge of a football team. And Coyle isn’t a one off. Alex McLeish still gets work. People still think Rafael Benitez deserves top jobs. David O’Leary still gets linked with clubs. The system is broken.

Maybe the worst part of this way of thinking is that new talent doesn’t get let in. I’m not thinking of anyone in particular, but I also am. I wear shorts all the time and I’ve never been relegated; I know most of the players at the big clubs from playing with them on FIFA and I really would like the money: job please.

The fact is: Owen Coyle has the job and I don’t. Don’t tell me that’s a meritocracy. No-one’s ever going to see that I really am the next Bill Shankly, instead, just months of Owen Coyle’s stupid legs.

Spain v Italy - UEFA EURO 2012 Final

As you may have read, I’m a supporter of Financial Fair Play. One of the reasons I don’t think that FFP will kill off any remaining competition in the top flight is because I’m not convinced that clubs currently operate at peak market efficiency, either in revenue or expenses.

I’ve already spoken a bit to the revenue side—in a nutshell, it’s not clear that English clubs for example have explored all commercial opportunities beyond the vast sums they receive in TV rights money (ironically, Man United’s leveraged buy out forced them to be very proactive in securing new revenue, including the NYSE).

But I’ve also argued that clubs have only just begun to fully exploring more efficient ways to allocate financial resources. One of the things I’ve harped on for a while is how FFP might encourage clubs to invest not only in improving academies, but in analytics research as well.

After meeting some of the leading lights in soccer analytics a few months ago at the Sloan MIT Sports Analytics conference in Boston, I got the distinct impression there was a lot of work to be done to improve individual player metrics in comparison with other sports. I don’t want to get into the specifics here, but it should be obvious why this is an incredibly difficult task. Football is a complex sport in which each player is mutually interdependent. We’re possibly a long way out from collecting meaningful data and analysing it to evaluate player performance.

Yet individual performance analysis is only one tool at clubs’ disposal in spending money on players more intelligently than in the past. Here’s Ian Lynam’s excellent article for the Guardian published earlier this week:

The amount of wages paid and to whom is clearly hugely important. What doesn’t receive as much attention is how that money is paid. It’s here that progressive clubs can gain an advantage. Remuneration strategy has become a discipline of its own in the corporate world and it has an obvious application in sport. Without necessarily paying more, clubs can increase player motivation, better align interests between club and player, and improve player satisfaction and the team dynamic.

Lynam is speaking here of performance-based pay. It’s not a theoretical concept, either; Manchester City chief executive Ferran Soriano used it at Barcelona and now at City. In practice, it involves paying player wages that are 2/3rds fixed, and 1/3rd variable, with the latter determined by team performance for those players who played in 60% of the team matches.

Lynam points out that football clubs are miles off from being able to provide a “winning probability added” bonus. Yet even if soccer performance analysts had the means to do so, it’s hard to see how it could improve much on Soriano’s model. First, we may discover that player performance metrics are “in-born” and difficult for player’s to consciously improve. If that’s the case, these metrics should form a part of contract negotiations for base pay, but not performance incentives. Second, team performance incentives prevent players from trying to figure out ways to “enhance” their numbers and throw-off the team dynamic. In the end the onus should be on the club to build a winning side with the right players, individual player metrics would likely be best applied before clubs add someone to the squad.

There is another approach that I hope to learn more about next week and which I wrote about yesterday, one proposed by the International Centre for Sports Studies. It uses a number of means to determine “true transfer value.”

Increasing the efficiency of transfer fee payments based on performance metrics and other economic factors would carry a lot of obvious financial benefits. Most importantly, it could help ensure teams are properly compensated for their best players should they decided to sell on, whilst at the same time preventing interested clubs from overspending on talent. It’s not certain whether the CIES report includes predictive metrics in their analysis, in order to prevent another Fernando-Torres-to-Chelsea-type sale. But the better the data and information, the more efficient the price, both for buyer and seller.

I hope to write a little more on the latter study next week. The summer transfer window is as good at time to do so as any!

An Indian sadhu (Hindu holy man) poses w

It reads as follows:

FIFA Statement: FIFA letter to Canadian Soccer Association (CSA)

Following communication between the CSA and FIFA, the matter related to Law 4 – The Player’s Equipment, the use of head covers and the situation arisen within the CSA has been presented to the members of the International Football Association Board (IFAB) for discussion.

The IFAB has exceptionally agreed to extend the conditions of the current experiment previously approved by IFAB in October 2012 (as per FIFA circular no. 1322), and to allow male players in Canada to wear head covers as well, as long as the following conditions are respected:

The head cover must:

· be of the same colour as the jersey
· be in keeping with the professional appearance of the player’s equipment
· not be attached to the jersey
· not pose any danger to the player wearing it or any other player (e.g. opening/closing mechanism around neck)

The letter sent by FIFA to the CSA on 13 June 2013 authorises the CSA to permit all players to wear head covers as described above, in all areas and on all levels of the Canadian football community.

This matter will once again be discussed by the IFAB in October 2013, before a final decision is reached at the next Annual General Meeting of the IFAB, taking place in March 2014.

This presumably means FIFA will take action on the matter beginning this October. The pressure is now on the QSF to issue a response.

Team GB v Brazil - International Friendly

The Lead

Hey guys. It’s the middle of June. We’ve got a Confederations Cup bearing down on us. It’s two months until the gears of the domestic season begins to grind. Why are you still reading about football? Do you have a problem? Do you need help?

The absence of football is clearly getting to some heads early this off-season. Like Jeff Powell.

Now this is pretty goddamn low-hanging fruit, I know, particularly after Powell’s somewhat embarrassing Thatcher apologia from last April. And I’m trying not to do this kind of thing any more, I’m honestly really trying.

But how any one could accept the empirical premise of this op-ed which currently sits atop the Daily Mail football section is beyond me:

Hands up all those who have heard of Razvan Rat, Ricky van Wolfswinkel, Jesus Navas, Modibo Diakite, Guillermo Varela, Aleksandar Tonev, Jose Canas and Fernandinho.

Hands on hearts, even if you have an inkling of those names now then how many of you knew who on earth they were as
recently as last month?

Thought not.

You can sort of see where he’s going with this. The Premier League isn’t attracting the stars like Neymar and Robert Lewandowski (maybe). It prefers spending on the cheap rather than break the bank on pricier English players. From here, Powell morphs this whole thing into an argument against the current loan system. It all means England won’t win the World Cup, which is what the Premier League is for, apparently.

Before we get into that, some very basic points need to be made here. As I mentioned above, it’s June 14th. That means there remains two-and-a-half months left of the transfer window in which these so-called superstars can be bought up as apparent proof that the Premier League is the best league in the world. To make this argument today completely undermines everything that follows. I could stop typing right now! And you may as well stop reading!

But a second point anyway: how many players have arrived in England as relative unknowns (and I mean relative: who in the hell doesn’t know who Jesus Navas is?) only to become major international commodities? Last season alone saw Michu and Benteke shine for mid-tablers like Swansea and Aston Villa. They would almost certainly have made Powell’s list had they arrived this season. Is the ability to spot and develop talent not a mark of an elite league?

And a third point: while major 80 million pound signings sell a ton of papers, they make for terrible business. We can have a conversation about the pros and cons of the loan system in place in Europe (it does permit for anti-competitive hoarding), but allocating enormous resources to secure the services of a single player, particularly with what we know about performance regression, and now with the introduction of Financial Fair Play, is just plain dumb. Much better to hedge bets over less expensive, and in some cases undervalued, foreign prospects.

Not once does Powell speak to the reforms being implemented by the Elite Player Performance Plan, which could help make the transition of young prospects into the Premier League easier and more affordable.

Best for now that Powell sticks to the keyboard and stay very far away from holding a position of actual power in the sport.
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