This Zack Greinke business simply will. not. end. And while in one way I guess it beats talking about Octavio “Don’t Ask” Dotel (H/T to @theskeptictank for that gem), it’s kind of a little fucking ridiculous that now three of our last four posts revolve around a player the Jays didn’t even fucking trade for.

Yet, here we are, with Richard Griffin defending himself in the preamble to his latest mail bag for the Toronto Star– which I’ll dip into myself in due time, probably between some rum and nog over the next week or so– over the notion that he gave the Jays’ rumoured pursuit legs it really didn’t have.

“I am told that I promoted the trade of Greinke to the Jays and suggested it was a distinct possibility when in the wake of the six-player deal between the Brewers and Royals, the strong implication from Greinke was that the Jays were never in the mix,” he says. “I have been around the game long enough that when someone says that a team was on his no-trade list, that can be changed in a heartbeat if that ends up being where he wants to go.”

In fact, Greinke waived his no-trade clause to come to Milwaukee based on the way their off-season has gone, so in that sense Griffin kinda has a point. “I knew Prince only had one year left on his contract and I wasn’t sure what direction they were going to go in with him,” Greinke told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. “But once they signed Marcum and didn’t trade Prince, I knew they were in it.”

However, Alex Anthopoulos tells a slightly different story– though he qualifies it by noting that “Part of [the confusion] is that we don’t deny trades or rumours or things like that people can run with them, and I understand that.”

Jeff Blair spoke to Anthopoulos on his Fan590 show earlier today (audio here), asking him bluntly, “At the end of the day he wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause, that’s basically right, isn’t it?”

“Correct. Yeah,” Anthopoulos replied.

“And the process didn’t get as far as, frankly, a lot of us thought it did,” Blair added.

Cue Anthopoulosian ramblings:

“It was really one of those things [where Dayton Moore and I said], ‘Hey, let’s– rather than even try to engage– why engage and go back and forth with dialogue and names if ultimately it’s not going to get anywhere? Let’s make sure that the player is willing to come here.’ And my understanding was that he was going to review teams that were on his no-trade list [to see if he'd be willing to waive the clause]. … I had been told that there was a strong desire on the player’s part to pitch in the National League, and also have a chance to hit– he’s a very good athlete, he was a two way player out of the draft– so there was a lot of appeal to him [in Milwaukee].”

Comparing it to the situation he found himself in last year with Roy Halladay, Anthopoulos insists that the Royals GM was a class act, and easy to deal with. “He didn’t waste anybody’s time, and he really focussed on the team– on the teams– the player was willing to go to.”

So… yeah, there’s that.

Oh, And There Were Actually Other Things To Talk About

The rest of the conversation between Blair and Anthopoulos (which also included Mike Wilner, though he didn’t say all that much), didn’t reveal anything terribly new, though there were a few items that I thought were interesting nonetheless, most of which revolved around the concept of having a “window” for contention, and the notion put forth by panicky idiots that it could be open this year for the Jays, so they should rush towards it with the speed of… um… something really fast.

“People talk like the Yankees lost Cliff Lee as if he was on the team. They won 95 games and Cliff Lee was not on that team,” Anthopoulos points out, noting that the Yankees’ only real loss so far is Andy Pettitte. “This was a 95 win team with guys like Burnett not having a great year– and you think he’s certainly be better than he showed.”

“Our goal,” he continued, “and it’s always been this way, is to not be built like ‘there’s a small window, it’s a year or two.’ The window– there isn’t going to be a window if we do this thing right. The window is going to be never-ending.” And he’s not about to take short cuts and have to tear the thing back down again in a few years.

However, there’s a caveat: people will actually, eventually, have to start coming out to the fucking ballpark.

He says that with success attendance should rise, revenue should rise, and then payroll will rise with it. And he adds that Tampa, having been a winning club for a few years, have seen that their ceiling, with respect to attendance and revenue, only goes to a certain point, so they’ve had to make some difficult financial decisions.

“If we had had the kind of success that the Rays have had, with the kind of upside of Canada, Rogers, the market that we’re in, Toronto, and so on, you start adding all that up and we’d have been drawing three million fans,” he says.

“This place can be a powerhouse,” he assures us, and don’t take the lack of attendance in recent years to mean otherwise. “There are very few markets where you just open up the doors and the place is full,” he says.

Easy to say from this time and place in the world, but sure, sounds good.

So Who Do The Jays Add?

At the end in interview with Blair, Anthopoulos said that the main thing still on his wish list is someone to pitch the ninth inning. By now you know my policy on Dotel (don’t ask)– who the club is rumoured to be in on– so let’s think elsewhere on the diamond. Specifically, someone who’ll keep Rajai Davis from getting regular playing time, either by playing the outfield himself, or by allowing Jose Bautista to shift off of third.

The Southpaw makes an interesting case for the Jays going after Adrian Beltre, while Ghostrunner On First daydreams about trading for Ichiro.

Me? Being slightly more realistic, I’m going to take whatever dignity I have left from my flirtation with Team Derrek Lee and move it in the direction of Felipe Lopez.

Don’t all start jumping for fucking joy at once.

But think about it:

The Jays could use another guy who hits left– adding one would bring their grand total among projected regulars to three (Lind and Snider being the others)– which Lopez, as a switch hitter, does.

They could use a guy who can either play second or third– Lopez does both.

They could use a guy who, if Davis becomes the fourth outfielder, can leadoff– and while not necessarily ideal, during his career Lopez has been his team’s leadoff hitter more often than he’s hit from any other spot in the batting order, and in 2010 305 of his 441 plate appearances were leading off.

Now, there’s an issue with the fact that he’s not a great fielder– though, looking at his Fangraphs page, his negative value in the field is dragged down monumentally when he plays short, at least in terms of UZR. He’s been passable, or occasionally even decent at second or third.

There’s also the issue of his vomitous .233/.311/.345/.656 line in 2010. However, the year before that he put up a downright impressive .310/.383/.427/.810 (wait, seriously?) and there’s likely some element of bad luck in his 2010 numbers, as his BABIP was .273, compared to a career mark of .316 (and a .358 in 2009). In fact, counting only his full seasons in the majors– not the partial years from 2001 to 2004 where he never played in more than 85 games– only once before last year had he put up an OBP under .343.

He also was a Type-B free agent this year, though that’s largely on the basis of his 2009, which won’t factor into next year’s rankings. And, should you luck out and get to that point with him, you’re really going to take the chance he accepts arbitration?

Still… maybe there’s something there worth taking a chance on? I know, it’s not exactly inspiring stuff. But I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’. At least that way you could hedge your bets a little– hope either Davis or Lopez is decent enough to play every day. I dunno, If you wanted me to make a prediction, I guess that’s where I’m gonna go. One day I might even get one right.

Comments (186)

  1. Sorry guess I’m trying to justify your thoughts, but I don’t see it your way.You may be right that AA isn’t a genius maybe thats why he has hired so many scouts, former GMs and cross checkers.He may not know everything himself but his committee of advisors will educate him.He has plenty of young and older people with a massive amount of experience and just in case he has doubts he can go to Tango for confirmation.There is no doubt he is the face for all these advisors and their consensus opinion.Rightly or wrongly he is trying to follow a plan based upon the Beeston and Gillick model that worked for the 92 and 93 Jays.Yes the Jays had the highest payroll back then but they didn’t start that way.They built a competitive team then added players and payroll to contend.While the leader IS AA, he has debated each move for hours with a bunch of experts to minimize errors.He may be young and trying to retain his job but he won’t lose it because he’s uninformed.

  2. Transferring cable, phone and internet to Bell as soon as possible? OK, enjoy the shittacular “customer service” from their ESL employees over in Bangladesh, or India or wherever the fuck they can hire the cheapest possible “customer service” agents. You wanna talk about cheapskate corporations? I wouldn’t doubt that lower employee costs are higher up on Bell’s priority list than said employees actually having any command of the English language whatsoever. That’s the main reason I will never, ever, ever go back to Bell for anything. When there’s a problem with my services, the person on the other end of the line understands me and I understand them, and it gets fixed.

  3. Q: is AA rebuilding while trying compete at the same time?

    the evidence is that no, he is not. this undermines the Rogers PR line that the money is there if he wants it. If that were true they would fill DH with Manny as opposed to E5, and they would look to sign a ML 3B rather than shuffle existing pieces, and they would shore up the BP with type B FAs rather than guys from the minors with no ML experience. this would make the team more competitive in ’11 but it would cost more than a bottom half payroll.

    the Jays entered ’10 in the lowest 1/3 in terms of payroll. They have since let Overbay go, traded Marcum, got rid of Downs ($4mill), Gregg and Tallet ($2/mill each), and renegotiated on E5 for a $2.5 million savings. none of these savings have been spent on improving the roster. but the money is there if needed, right?

  4. Hitting a round ball with a round bat? Nah, there’s no luck involved there. About a 1/4 inch on the barrel between a popup and a line drive, and another 1/4 inch on the barrel between a line drive and a worm burning ground ball. Sure there’s a lot of skill in baseball, otherwise the cream wouldn’t rise to the top, but to say it’s a game of 100% skill and no luck at all is asinine.

  5. Ahaha.

  6. Tampa Bay should be the model for all organizations, whether they spend $37.8 mil (Padres opening day 2010 payroll) or $213.4 mil (Yankees opening day 2010 payroll). Spending money intelligently, regardless of how much you spend only makes sense doesn’t it? The more intelligently you spend it, the further it should go, and the Rays spend their money very intelligently. They’re a very good organization to model, and I’m glad the Jays are doing so. We’ve seen higher payrolls from Rogers before, and I believe we’ll see them again once the system’s restocked to AA’s satisfaction.

  7. I’m pretty sure that the Jays should just spend as much money as recklessly as they can to get that payroll # up there.

    I mean, $$ = playoffs, right?

  8. Ok, so you read my analogy and decided not to look at the actual meaning behind it, but instead pick it apart in a literal fashion. I guess I should have known better on this blog and run the numbers myself so anal retentives couldn’t avoid the actual point of the post by dealing with the semantics.

    Firstly, standard deviation is a measure of statistical variation, so I am not sure what your point is there.

    Secondly, the stdev in the scenerio I outlined is 5, so 68% of the trials would have a result within that one stdev (+/-) from the mean (45-55). The remaining of the trials would be between 3 stdev from the mean (35-65). So the completely random numbers I tossed out in order to make a simple point were actually statistically relevent and completely possible.

    So maybe you don’t understand statistics.

  9. Don’t know about stoeten’s HoF picks. You’re allowed to vote for ten and these are mine in alphabetical order:

    1. Roberto Alomar
    2. Jeff Bagwell
    3. Bert Blyleven
    4. Kevin Brown
    5. Barry Larkin
    6. Edgar Martinez
    7. Mark McGwire
    8. Tim Raines
    9. Alan Trammell
    10. Larry Walker

    Thanks to the writers leaving a bunch of deserving players on the ballot over the years, while putting less deserving players in, plus this year’s strong additions, I had no trouble finding ten that IMHO deserve to go in. I’d have to put Lenny Harris into the LOLOLOL category. How the fuck did he even make it to the ballot?

  10. I’d say payroll $$ = 3,000,000 per year in attendance, and playoffs every year fer sure. Wooooooo!!!1!!!

  11. Giancarlo Marrelli

    you are a fucking dumbass. your “blog” is a joke, and you don’t know sheeeit. don’t act like you understand these stats. we all know you don’t.

    get a life dummy.

  12. Well, there’s money for building the farm (draft, international FA young players) and there’s money for the big club. I’m fine with a low big club payroll if the team is dumping into the farm. I just want to see that Rogers is investing in the team.

    Using money should be for acquiring talent or getting that last piece needed.

  13. I just checked out the remaining free agents and it’s ugly. Next year outside of Pujols, it’s ugly too.

  14. It seems that freebird has some understanding where SD/chance/luck have completely unrelated meanings. The only way I can fathom such strong negative associations with the word “luck” is that those that freak out about it relate it to quasi-mysticism. Personally, I would say that “chance” is a more accurate term to use, but it is WAY too hilarious to see how much firejoefundamentalists react to the word ‘luck’.

    Here’s an ok article on BABIP:

    tl;dr: batters tend to have their own average babip over a career so it is more meaningful to comapre the player’s past performance to whatever they’re doing now.
    Usually people just assume that everyone will move towards ~.300 (league average) which is a bad way to measure things.

    The problem is with players like A.Hill and J.Bautista where they seem to have seen drops in BA, and increased in HR/AB and SLG, it is unclear how much of a deflated BABIP is due to bad luck, and how much to a changed approach at the plate – that will only become clear over time, and even then it will never be exact, as the world rarely is.

  15. also: if they aren’t going to actively improve the product on the field, maybe they will at least consider improving the field’s name.

    Petition to re-name RC to Roger’s SkyDome?


  16. Most free agent classes only have about 2 to 4 guys that are worth shelling out for. The rest are albatrosses in waiting.

  17. Haha: firejoefundamentalists. Nice.

  18. it was your example so dont complain that I am referring to it. You said “I’d be surprised to get 50 heads” “I’d expect to get 42…then 55″. you didnt say possible. in fact 50 is the highest prob result so why would you be surprised to get that? you dont seem to understand the difference between std deviation and probabilities of each occurrence. 68% of the data would be between 1 std deviation 45-55, 95% would be between 2 std dev 40-60. that doesn’t mean that 60 has the same probability of occurring as 50. as you prob know the data would be distributed in a bell curve with most of the data points bunched around the expected outcome of 50. there would be fewer data points at 55 then 60 etc. ie 65 is possible but not probable. 50 is the highest probably outcome.

    you have arbitrarily picked 100. I wasn’t trying to debate a coin toss. If you read my post I stated that 100 abs could have a lot of variability but once you get to 500 abs his avg is probably a true reflection of the skill of the player and not due to luck or a cold stretch. it is possible a player’s numbers are not accurate but you would have no way of knowing this since you have no idea what the expected outcome of a player should be.

  19. “In general, low BABIP does mean someone is getting unlucky, but it’s not always the case.”

    you just contradicted yourself.

    what you are saying is you dont know when babip is accurate or not. so that makes it completely useless.

  20. ok just tell me who the lucky players are and I’ll believe you.

  21. “in general” = ‘in most cases, but not all’
    if anything, he repeated himself, rather than contradicted himself. You should re-read that post.

    “ok just tell me who the lucky players are and I’ll believe you.”

    this is what you should be able to predict given that you do not think ‘luck’ exists.


    I just want to say again how much I like selling high on Marcum. The guy threw 500 more pitches than any previous MLB season. He threw 3000 pitches after having thrown none (MLB) the previous year recovering. Banking on him throwing 200 innings next year would be risky. My over/under on him hitting the DL would be June 30th.

  23. If you read my post I stated that 100 abs could have a lot of variability but once you get to 500 abs his avg is probably a true reflection of the skill of the player….

    Clearly, 500 AB will yield a more accurate result, but still an arbitrary number decided by you, and does not necessarily back up your claims. That’s just your opinion.

  24. Haha, there are way to many nerds on this site (I include myself in this).

    Somehow the coin flip analogy drifted us away from baseball and onto basic statistics. You are right, 50/50 is the highest probability of occurence. I would still be surprised to get it right away because there is around an 8% chance that it happens. The basic point I was trying to make is that you will always get variation around the mean in everything.

    Everything has statistical variation, baseball included. YT said it eloquently :

    batters tend to have their own average babip over a career so it is more meaningful to compare the player’s past performance to whatever they’re doing now.
    Usually people just assume that everyone will move towards ~.300 (league average) which is a bad way to measure things.

  25. I think that’s what draws many of us to the game – a love of mathematics and a sport that offers statistics in abundance.

  26. I agree. I have been making similar points on the Blue jays message board. It seems that there are many posters on that board that believe that AA can do no wrong, and everything is part of his “plan”. It is frustrating , because AA isn’t following last year’s “plan” of signing Type b free agents like Buck,Gonzalez, gregg, and using them to get draft picks this year, and also helping the team win games in 2010. people don’t realize that without the vets we signed last year, we would have won less than 75 games.

    AA is trying to build the team through the farm system, but that will take at least 3 or 4 years before his efforts contribute to the team in a major way.

    AA’s goal should be to keep his job, and he is less likely to be blamed if his prospects fail than if he went and signed another BJ ryan, Frank thomas etc… Much less risky.

    Rogers won’t let anyone blow another 50 million on a closer who pitched for 2 years well on a 5 year contract.

    If rogers was serious about competing in 2011& 2012, they would have given AA a budget of at least 100 million per year, and see what AA can get with that. We could have signed a 1B for 8 million, keep Gregg or get Jesse Crain for 13 million for 3 years etc….

    The AA fan boys will be disappointed when lawrie comes to the team in 2012 and doesn’t hit 25 HR 90 RBI’s and 300. in his first year.

  27. isn’t beeston only signed to a3 year contract? I thought he only has 2 years left , then he will retire?

  28. “It is frustrating , because AA isn’t following last year’s “plan” of signing Type b free agents like Buck,Gonzalez, gregg, and using them to get draft picks this year, and also helping the team win games in 2010. people don’t realize that without the vets we signed last year, we would have won less than 75 games”

    Buck, AGon and Gregg were not Type B’s last year – the reason why they were signed was that they did NOT cost a draft pick. EEE and Molina could be next year’s type Bs, and JBau will (unless he totally craps the bed or gets hurt) likely be a Type A.
    If anything AA is doing MORE of what he did last year, with more of a “plan” to rely on the likes of Snider, JPA and the young staff/pen.
    Don’t forget that Gregg didn’t sign with the Jays last year until a few week before camp broke. This year Benoit got signed to a pretty stupid deal and Soriano is still playing the market, so I wouldn’t hold my breath on any signings in the near future – though who knows, really?

  29. I should clarify what I mean by type B free agents. I don’t mean Type B, in the sense of getting a draft pick, but less well known , moderately priced free agents that will sign for a year or two with options that fill holes in the organization.

  30. I always enjoy the posters with the crystal balls and the ESP. Thoroughly entertaining.

    Do E3, Frasor, and Bautista not fit the criteria for players that could yield draft picks at season’s end? And consider the potential trade values of players like Escobar and whomever ends up closing. Part of building a team with prospects is to allow them to play (and likely struggle) in a year when you don’t project to compete. Perhaps the plan is multifaceted or dynamic, and what was the goal one year is not necessarily the goal for the next.

  31. What holes specifically? I’m seeing one positional hole at the moment that may or may not be filled by Rajai Davis playing every day (let’s hope not), and not much else. You don’t sign retreads to one year deals and promise them an everyday job unless they’re filling a positional black hole. The jays are in significantly better shape in that regard than they were at the onset of the previous offseason. If more than one positional player is signed onto that type of a deal, they’ll be doing nothing but blocking other players (terrible for any team undergoing a youth movement). What would be the point?

    I think staying the course, seeing what we have and giving the talent on the farm another year to develop and accrue value, while augmenting it with another strong draft (and a few ifa signings) is the best course of action. Anything else would run contrary to everything AA has done up to this point.

  32. Geez thanks for your analysis of AA’s plan and letting us know he’s not following it.You should let other message boards in on this too.

    ^^^ sarcasm

    Sorry bud,I couldn’t resist.But seriously,try to take yourself back to last year.
    If you remember AA didn’t really have much time to implement his main plan due to the Halladay trade, expanding the scouting by over 40 people,putting the support mechanism in place,get married,etc.In the short time he had to make changes he let Barajas and Scutaro go, added Buck,Gonzalez,Gregg etc.Many of those moves brought a WTF from the fan base.In the short term it produced unexpected sucess and gave him the time to implement a plan of larger scope.And yes the plan will continue to develop.If Lawrie shits the bed he’ll have plan B ready.

    Sorry his plan doesn’t match your thoughts. Have some patience and enjoy the ride.

  33. You’re the one who made the absolutist statement that there is no luck in baseball. I’d say the onus is on you.

  34. Merry Christmas to the glorious Monkey Army. Keep the laughs coming in 2011.

  35. Cmon Tools, it’s one thing to play the self appointed intellectual heavyweight on here, but to suggest that a love of mathematics is what draws people to baseball (or any sport for that matter), is the height of arrogance. If your somehow trying to justify your post secondary vocation or impress upon anyone your mathematical acumen, then fine well done. Most people are drawn to sports out of the most basic instincts (competition, aggression etc.) and to assign some kind of academic pursuit to it is just ingenuous.

  36. Indubitably, old chum!

  37. what about chone figgins?

  38. AA does not have an experienced closer this year. Frasor did not do a good job last year as closer and lost his job by May.

    Gregg was Ok as a closer although he couldn’t pitch B2B. Who is the closer in 2011?

    Is JPA ready to be an every day catcher? Wouldn’t it have been more prudent to have an experienced catcher playing, while letting JPA back up so he can learn the game?

    Is E5 the best available DH on the market? I think Vlad Guerrero, Matsui,Thome, Manny are better options at DH than E5, who has been cut by the team, sent on waivers, cut by the A’s etc.

    Is getting rid of Marcum who pitched 200 plus innings with 3.8 ERA without a replacement a great idea for 2011? Can Litsch& Drabek make up the slack?

    Is Lind ready for full time duty at 1B? If he fails defensively, is E5 the “defense whiz at 1B? Lind has more experience at 1B than E5.

    I suspect AA was worried about Marcum’s potential for injury? If not, perhaps he overpaid for Bret Lawrie.

    WhileI don’t expect AA to admit anything, it seems that Rogers is keeping a tight rein on payroll.

    It seems that 2011 is “Play the kids year”. This can be fun, but don’t expect 85 wins.

  39. There are holes at DH. E5 is not a replacement level DH.

    We don’t have a closer.

    We don’t have an experienced full time catcher. I assume Molina is not ready to play 120 games if JPA fails at his job defensively.

    We could use an experienced starter to replace Marcum, but that won’t happen.

    Can Litsch,Stewart & Zep fill in for Marcum? Perhaps but no guarantees.

    Is AA’s plan to trade bautista for a prospect? If so, and assuming he hits 30HR next year with 90 RBI’s, who will replace his production in RF or 3B?

    You either have a hole at 3B or RF, depending where Bautista plays.

  40. I pity the fool who doesn’t have a Merry Kwanzaa.

  41. I think you’re missing the point. E5 is there to spell off Lind at DH to see if Lind can play any kind of 1st base. The fact that he can occasionally mash the ball is a bonus, but he’s not been signed as a credible DH. He’s a very reasonable place-holder and that is all. Can Thome or Vlad play 1st base? Can Manny? Do you not remember what happened with Frank Thomas? All the money they aren’t spending now I expect them to spend in the near future. If they don’t I’ll be out there on the barricades screaming along with you. But you don’t rebuild a crippled team in one year. So I’m willing to wait a little while longer.

  42. It’s December 24th. There are still just over seven weeks until pitchers and catchers report. I’ve learned in this GM’s very short tenure not to try to predict what he’s going to do next. Let’s see what we’ve got come Spring Training before we worry about what holes need filling.

    As for Arencibia and Drabek, I’m not sure they have much left to prove in the minors. Sure Drabek could head off to AAA and get his head handed to him in the hitter happy PCL. His infielders will probably be unable to track down balls at home on one of the worst infield surfaces in the minors, which would probably frustrate the fuck out of him, being the extreme groundballer that he is. As for JPA, there really isn’t much left for him to prove, but at the same time he is still very much a work in progress. If this is a developmental year (and all indications are that it is), then there is no reason for either of them to start the year in the minors. If they’re going to be on the 25 man roster, let ‘em play. You don’t develop by collecting splinters in your ass. You develop by playing, making mistakes and taking your lumps as you go.

    Look at Dustin Pedroia. He’s proof that you’ve got to let the kids play. He was abysmal in 2006 and part way through 2007, it looked like more of the same, as he was hitting an uninspiring .184/.272/.273/.545 with 2 HR and 9 RBI in his first 166 career PA. I can only imagine how the Masshole Mouthbreathing Society was responding to that…Probably not well. But the Red Sox stuck by him, and he rewarded their patience by hitting .335/.392/.470/.861 with 8 HR and 48 RBI in 513 PA the rest of the way, and he hasn’t looked back since.

    In the meantime, Merry Christmas to you and to all of you at DJF. Have some egg nog, turkey, stuffing, or whatever other gustatory, celebratory traditions you have at this time of the year. Don’t worry about the Jays. They’ll be here when you get back. Cheers guys and gals.

    Before I forget, found a really cool link to a really cool holiday tradition that happened to be baseball related this year:



  43. One of my expectations, if they aren’t spending much on the MLB payroll, is that they will spend in the top three on the amateur side of things. The dollars toward draft bonuses and international free agents we can see. The dollars toward the scouting department, the farm system, development and the new complex in the Dominican Republic we can’t. I would like to see them in the top three in the two that we can see (with the exception of those ridiculous posting fees for Japanese players – fuck ‘em – that is a colossal waste of resources) as long as the MLB payroll remains low, or I’ll be as upset as those that are upset with the current direction that AA appears to be taking the team in.

  44. if rogers was serious they would have committed serious money to a proven gm or a top flight assistant . can you imagine the yankees or sox taking 4 or 5 years to turn this pitching staff into a contending team?

  45. I’d like to make you scream too baby

  46. Merry Christmas to all you drunk fuckers. I love you all.

  47. Fuck off Garafraxaguy

  48. Forget about it supper club made me puke. You owe me a fuckin cheetah guy!

  49. And may you find coal in the most uncomfortable of places.

  50. Merry Christmas to all. Ah snap, I forgot, I am the reason for the season. I am Jesus. Who wouldnt want a friend who could turn water in to wine?

  51. Bring me your Gold, Frankincense & Myrrh.

  52. the problem is that there is no mean probability for any hitter because it’s always moving based on their skill. therefore if you dont know what the mean is you cant calculate variance. therefore babip doesn’t measure luck or variance or anything. is aaron hill a .270 hitter who through random variance hit .200? does that mean he is going to jump back to .270 or is his new mean .200? it’s a fool’s game to even try. stats are supposed to remove the bias but we still have people saying “aaron hill is not a bad hitter, he was just unlucky”. if teams thought carlos pena was just unlucky he’d get a 3 year deal but he didn’t because teams know his new normal might be .196

  53. so you want me to prove that something doesn’t exist? while I’m at it I’ll also prove that sasquatch doesn’t exist and where the end of space is and also the last number of pi.

  54. Any of the members of monkey army interested in a browser based BASEBALL mmorpg?

    It’s a fairly in-depth game statistically, it follows the normal tropes of sports mmorpg’s and like most it doesn’t cost anything to play.

    Build your character, have him get drafted, improve his skills as you level up, ect.

    It’s still in it’s 1st season(barely) of beta testing, so you can get your character in early and have him/her make it to the advanced leagues with out being blocked by long time players.

    Here’s a referral link if you’d be so kind:

    Mindless Asshole Who Co-opts Comment Sections

  55. I don’t have a problem with Beeston hiring AA. He has experience from the Expos. The expos did very well drafting talent and finding players in the Dominican republic. I think AA will try to replicate this approach. It should give that Jays a competitive advantage.

    The key test is whether or not the Jays will be able to keep the core players together.

    Will the core players sign LT contracts with the team?

    Will some of them want to play for a team that is in constant rebuilding mode?

    I wonder when the rebuilding will stop?

    The biggest unknown is whether or not this core group of players will be able to make the playoffs on their own without much help from free agents .

  56. “proven gm”

    yea, i wonder if they even checked to see if another member of the bavasi family had a son in the last 40 years.

    also: how do you like the job that the other ‘proven’ gms in toronto are doing at the moment?

  57. what you are saying is so stupid it is hard to believe.

    Aaron Hill’s SKILL declined 30% during a healthy season at an age that many players are having career years, or still trending upwards…

    Yea, that’s what statistics measure. Get a clue.

  58. How much longer until 300 comments? I want a new thread.

  59. fuck off nerd. go jerk off to your cyber stats and leave us alone.

  60. Who the fuck are you? You dumb faggot ruskie

  61. Yep.

    Just like the Sox. That Theo Epstein sure was proven as a GM prior to his hiring.

  62. …And Brian Cashman…What a job he did with…Uh, um…er prior to being handed the keys to the GM suite in the Bronx. Then there’s Friedman in Tampa, Daniels in Texas, Smith in Minnesota, Sabean in San Fran, Amaro Jr. in Philly. All of their teams were in the playoffs last year, and they’re all still in their first jobs as GMs. Non of them were proven when they were hired. Then there’s that Gillick fellow that just went into the HoF. He was unproven when he was hired by the Jays. How’d he do again? Yep, we sure do need a proven GM alright.

  63. any gm who goes to the playoffs in their first jobs, it has to be luck because any time I dont understand something, well it just has to be luck. wilner told me so.

  64. last christmas I gave you my heart, but the very next day, you gave it away

    but this year, to save me from tears, I’ll give it to someone special….

  65. Lind had trouble hitting LHP in 2010. E5 is one of the jays better hitters against LHP.
    I assume that E5 will start at 1B against LHP. Will Lind sit on the bench against LHP?

    wouldn’t it make more sense to leave lind at 1B throughout the year, and sign a good DH?

    If lind can’t hit LHP in 2011 & can’t play avg defense at 1B, then he can be full time DH in 2012 or traded.

    If the Jays platoon Lind & E5 at 1B, why not bring in a DH with experience like Manny, Thome?

    It seems that signing E5 is insurance against bautista being traded.

    Anyone who watched E5 last year, knows that he is a very streaky hitter. he hit 10HR out of 21 in two weeks during the season.

  66. i’ve never seen someone suck so much Rogers cock. You really are a shill for our terrible owners.

    Get fucked, you cock sucker.

  67. Lind had trouble hitting anything in ’10.

    Don’t forget that Thome, Guerrero and Manny all remain unsigned right now. Which means that AA might be waiting for a bargain price there. Thome wants to play two more seasons. Vlad doesn’t want to retire. And Manny is being Manny all over the place. If AA signs any one of them for a realistic price I wouldn’t be upset. But I don’t want to pay over the odds for a superstar well beyond his superstar years…

  68. Bob Elliot just tweeted that Baseball America will be rating the Jays minor league system as the 4th best in baseball when their ratings come out in January..For the AA haters, that 4th place is up from 28th place last year, proof indeed that AA is doing a phenomenal job.


    We might get a new thread- that’ s hot!

  70. From this guy’s mouth to God’s ears…

  71. It’s funny how some have longed for a proper re-build for a long time and when it’s actually happening, people want it to stop, overpay for FA and try to contend that way. It’s nothing to do with Rogers with cheap and it’s safe to say 85 wins was a massive over achievement by this team. Nobody expected them to win this much and most expected them to be in the bottom 5. Now, I will say they have a pretty good young rotation but you know what, they still have to prove a little more which is why 2011 will be a wait/report/result type season. AA will take his time to evaluate this team and how good it is in 2011.

    There are far too many unknowns going into this season such as Bautista, does he hit anywhere near his 2010 season? Does Lind bounce back? Does Hill? Does Wells continue to hit this well or does he decline? Does Snider finally break out? Does Morrow improve or does he stay inconsistent? Does Cecil improve? Does Romero? How well does Arencibia play? Bullpen is also a question mark.

    Hey retards, haven’t we tried that already? Luckily, AA doesn’t listen to you retards and he is doing a fantastic job and hopefully he stays on this track.

  72. Sniderlover, I think the counter argument (not mine but…) is that the rebuild should have happened in the early JP years. People now want to see the team’s owner invest in the product and have a payroll exceeding 100 million dollars. 70-80 million dollars in the AL East is not going to get you where you want to be unless you are going to be losing for a long time. Just barely scraping 100 million for one season is no way to impress a savvy fandom and no playoffs or pennant race since the glory days won’t impress young, new or bandwagon fans.

  73. Yeah thank God we signed E5 and completely ignored Manny. I mean, having to shell out the dollars for Manny would have absolutely bankrupt poor Rogers Communications.

  74. Lol Manny would cost roughly the guaranteed money E5 got… but there is a reason they signed E5. It’s because he can also play first base for us because we’re going with a huge question mark at 1B.

    Can you teach Manny to play 1st? Dumbass.

    Besides, it’s not it’s completely ruled out that we are not going to sign Manny. He would have to come with a reduced role and the coach would require rotating EE, Manny, Davis. Manny DH, EE 3B, Bautista RF — With Davis in the line-up: Manny or EE DH, Bautista 3B, Davis RF

    If they don’t sign Manny, it’s not because of money they would have shell out dumb fuck… which wouldn’t be much.

  75. I just wanted to revisit the marcum trade. if you look at kelvim escobar he was healthy his career. after the age of 28 he had 2 good years and then was finished. given that marcum did not accomplish nearly as much as escobar did and given his wonky delivery it doesn’t seem like marcum has much of a future. he has maybe 2 good years in him and then either declines or gets injured and is finished. so getting a high end prospect was probably the most prudent move.

  76. Yes I understand that but there is no reason to spend 100 million right now and you know what, they need to stick to rebuilding properly instead of signing FA and who cares what the payroll should be because of JP era. AA has said himself that the payroll will go up and it’s bound to when the Jays try to keep their young players and I do envision it going it around 100-120 million in the future.

  77. and why is it a given that lind plays 1st? isn’t it pretty obvious that EE would play much better? has lind show any adeptness at picking grounders? all it’s going to take is a couple of booted plays and lind will be back to dh.

  78. Ohhhh listen, the little Rogers faggot calling me dumbass and dumbfuck, how will I ever go on.

    Of course Manny wouldn’t play first base, he would DH. Plus, your one of the morons falling all over themselves licking AA for the E5 signing, when if someone would have suggested that a month ago, you’d be calling them a dumbfuck, but now its a stroke of genious.

  79. given manny’s age and his big power dropoff down the stretch, pretty much nobody is going to offer him a contract. if the jays have a roster spot open the best alex will do is offer him a non guaranteed contract and see if his power shows up in spring training. at best he will have to split time with lind/EE so I dont see where he’d get ab’s anyways

  80. I find it funny how bill james said that carl crawford isn’t likely to decline and compared him to ricky henderson. a better comparision would be kenny lofton and chone figgins. both of these guys hit .300 and stole 40 bases in their 20′s. after turning 30 their avg’s dropped by about 20 pts and saw their sb’s drop 10+. that would mean CC could turn into a .280/.330 with 30sb pretty easily. that is nothing spectacular. the sox will regret that deal in 2 years.

  81. holy shit. you do realize manny hasn’t signed anywhere yet, right?

  82. I’m licking AA for the E5 signing? Are you dumb? It’s a serious question.

    Besides, he is not here to play 3B which… well I would have criticized AA for but he is here to DH and play 1st base… something this team needs.

    “Of course Manny wouldn’t play first base” — who the fuck would if Lind is incapable of doing it?

  83. I suppose E5 can catch a ball thrown to him at 1B. On a double play, can he throw to 2B without it going into center field?

    Is E5 the best backup 1B available?

    I think E5 will go to 3B if Bautista is traded. It will get messy if E5 throws to Lind at 1B.

    Lind was a 1B in college, so hopefully he hasn’t forgotten to play 1B.

    I am surprised AA didn’t try to get Alonso from the reds or any other 1B on a 1 year contract.

  84. Problem is most 1B like Lee, Laroche, Pena (before he signed), Berkman (before he signed) all want a starting 1B job or they will DH for a contending club. Guys like Lee, Laroche are not going to play back-up for Lind and DH for most of the time. EE is willing to do both and he kills lefties so I could see a platoon situation happening as well with Lind and we could go with a true DH in Manny.

    EE will stay make some errors on the throw but hopefully Butters can cut it down. He did do much better in the second half.

    I assume AA probably looked into Alonso to see what it would take. I have no idea honestly. Could be like Stewart or Gose+? But I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him and moved him to LF to see if that can work… but keep in mind, the off-season is not over so it’s completely possible that could happen in Jan or even Feb.

  85. Stoeten,
    Why has this IP been banned from the current entry? I haven’t even been on this board in two weeks.

  86. Yes folks, supporting AA building our favourite team in an intelligent fashion from the ground up = a Blue Jays fan who “sucks so much Rogers’ cock”.

    Supporting AA running around and spending stupid money on dumb, lengthy contracts that the same people that are bitching about the lack of spending on free agents this offseason will be bitching about in 2 years…tops = a real Blue Jays fan.

    I don’t give a flying fuck whether Rogers spends $50 million or $300 million, as long as they spend it wisely. I’d prefer to see them go 1 year (or 1 plus one of AA’s phantom option years) on Manny, or Thome, or Vlad, or Damon, or even Beltre if you can keep him to no more than three years. The main thing I want to see is long term roster flexibility, which you can’t get when you sign somebody to a seven year deal, who blows a tire two years in. There’s risk in waiting out the market and grabbing the best leftovers for shorter term, in that there might be nothing left or nothing but crap left for you, which is not the case this year. Also, if you go after the older players, you can get them to sign for far fewer years, which is a good thing because I doubt any of those 5+ year contracts we saw this offseason will turn out to have been worth it in the long run. This strategy is the one Gillick employed to sign Morris, Winfield, Stewart, and Molitor when he felt the Jays were a piece or two away.

    Or maybe you called me a shill for my rant about Bell’s shitty fucking customer service. I have no idea, since you didn’t really explain what your comment was based on. If it was this, it makes even less sense because you weren’t the one being bounced from India to Bangladesh to Indonesia to God knows where while your fucking internet connection was moving at the rate of grains of sand through a fucking hourglass. I don’t see how you can talk shit about my experiences with their customer service, but then again you seem to enjoy talking shit about everything, so I guess that’s par for the course.

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