Holy shit, MLB Trade Rumors, is that seriously poor Willem Defoe being hunted down like a dog by the VietCong after somehow surviving fucking Tommy B’s three shots to the chest and then having the whole cocksucking platoon retreat without him on fuckface Berenger’s orders?
It is! Well, then, I guess for some reason there must be yet another new update to your magnificently reverse-engineered Elias Rankings, which means that it’s time for us to check out how Alex Anthopoulos is doing in his quest to game the free agency compensation system for as many draft picks as possible…
Jose Molina’s improbable run up the rankings continues, as he now projects as a Type-B free agent– and not even the lowest-ranked one! Jason Varitek is behind him. Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Francisco Cervelli are behind him, on the outside looking in.
It’ll be interesting to see how Molina’s status plays out over the course of the final two months of the season. I’ve said it for months, and I’m going to go out on a limb and maintain Molina’s numbers– a .372 OBP!?! an .802 OPS!?!– are bound to regress to the mean. He has a .286 career OBP for fuck sakes! This could be an issue.
To maintain his status, one assumes he’ll need to keep playing at least a little bit. But if he does, it’s hard to believe he’ll help his case, except with whatever counting stats are used to produce the rankings among catchers. [According to a 2007 MLBTR post, the stats used for catchers are PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage and Assists.]
Complicating matters is that JP Arencibia is rising through the ranks, with just six shitbags ranked between him and Varitek. If Arencibia knocks someone out of Type-B, it makes it that much more difficult for Molina.
There is, of course, also the issue of whether Molina declines arbitration– if he’s even offered. Molina makes $1-million this year, and would be due a raise through arbitration, and looking at the list of free agent catchers who signed last season, I think there’s a decent chance he declines. The only two catchers to sign Major League contracts for less than $1-million last winter were Will Nieves (-0.4 WAR in 2010), and Matt Treanor (0.1 WAR in 2010), so… Molina’s 1.3 WAR through just 132 plate appearances looks pretty salable– especially so given that John “$18-million deal” Buck is just behind him, with 1.2 WAR in 370 plate appearances. [Note: Hahahahahahahahaha!]
Not much to see here, as the only Jays to qualify for this category are Jose Bautista and Adam Lind, who are both locked up long-term. (They’re also the team’s two highest salaried players this season. The next three highest? Aaron Hill, Mark Teahen and Frank Francisco. Then Jon Rauch, then Adeiny Hechavarria! Yikes– glad there aren’t a bunch of morons in this city who think there’s a direct relationship between high salaries and winning baseball.)
For some reason, Aaron Hill still projects to comfortably be a Type-B free agent, though he’s been so terrible these last two years– see Yesterday in Morons– that what he stands to make through arbitration far outweighs what he’ll be worth on the open market, no matter what you heard from some shittacular, pageview-whoring, shit salad of a dump of a that-horseshit-passes-for-analysis? of a fucking moronic slideshow of a worthless turd stew of a snake oil-covered shitshow fake sports site.
(For those who are curious about the Jays’ impending hole at second base, Kelly Johnson of the Diamondbacks remains a Type-A free agent in the National League, but he’s only barely ahead of the lowest-ranked Type-A, Jimmy Rollins. Nipping at their heels are Jeff Keppinger, Chipper Jones, Freddy Sanchez, Casey McGehee and Dan Uggla. If Johnson falls back into Type-B status, look for the Jays to target him in the off-season– even though he’s in the midst of his second .300-ish OBP season of the last three. In 2010 he got on base at a .370 clip and was worth a shade under 6 WAR.)
Things aren’t much better on the Edwin Encarnacion front, as Dustin Ackley, Jed Lowrie and Robert Andino have moved between him and Type-B status– and Ackley certainly won’t be falling behind him anytime soon, and perhaps neither will the others. Adam Kennedy, Cliff Pennington and Erick Aybar are also between E5 and Mike Aviles, who is the last ranked Type-B.
There isn’t a whole lot separating any of those guys (or the ones just in behind Encarnacion– Omar Vizquel, Alexei Casilla, Chris Getz) as, as far as their Elias “scores” go, so there’s a chance Edwin can keep on moving up the ranks, but with all those guys to get ahead of, and Ackley shooting for the top of the rankings, it’s not going to be easy.
So… maybe when it comes to who they should sit when Brett Lawrie arrives, the Jays don’t have such a difficult decision after all…
Nothing to see here– none of the Jays’ starters are impending free agents.
Some changes here, as– did you hear???– the Jays shipped out a couple Type-B relievers– Jason Frasor and, rather unbelievably, Octavio Dotel– in order to make the Colby Rasmus acquisition happen.
Additionally, Shawn Camp has dropped out of Type-B status entirely– a precipitous fall, seeing as he was a Type-A at the end of May. These rankings, however, come at a time where his performance has ebbed, with seven earned runs in his last 3.1 innings. I’d expect him to pitch a little better going forward, which should still give him a great chance to get back to Type-B. Y’know… as long as he doesn’t keep sucking.
Then there are Frank Francisco and Jon Rauch, both of whom seem will end the season comfortably as Type-Bs. The big issue with them, then, is whether the Jays will offer arbitration.
Or… seemingly it’s an issue. I mean, a lot is made of how teams need to make this calculation, but really, there shouldn’t be any reason why the team and a Type-B player can’t have a handshake agreement about how to handle the offering of arbitration. It makes no difference to the player if he’s not offered arbitration or if he’s offered and then declines– either way, he’s a free agent– but obviously it makes a huge difference to the team. Unless an agent wants to torch his relationship with a club, there’s no reason the club shouldn’t be able to trust his answer if they came to him and said, “Hey, if we offer your client arbitration, is he going to accept? Because if he is, we’re not going to offer it.”
It’s different when a player is a Type-A– as we saw with Rafael Soriano a couple years ago, when he surprised the Braves by accepting arbitration– because the fact that teams give up their own picks to sign Type-A free agents, when completely warps the market for their services. Type-B though… why wouldn’t they?
Or perhaps it doesn’t even need to be a handshake agreement. Jon Rauch has a $250K buyout in his contract– might they have already agreed that, if the Jays don’t want him back, he’ll agree to decline arbitration if he’s Type-B and they’ll kick in the extra cash?
It’s certainly possible. And for Jays fans, let’s hope so– because, the way they’ve pitched this year, there’s no guarantee that the market for those guys look so rich that they’d decline arb.
Francisco makes $4-million, and Rauch $3.75-million, which would make them both due more than $4-million through arbitration. Last season the following relievers received contracts of more than $4-million: Soriano, Rivera, Putz, Jenks, Guerrier, Gregg, Fuentes, Downs, Crain, Contreras, Benoit and Balfour.
You could say that the Jays’ two are at the very least comparable to a few of those names– *cough* Kevin Gregg *cough*– but are they slam dunk candidates to decline arbitration? Doubt it.