Apparently he’s back in the groove… kinda. Because once again this week we find Richard Griffin taking questions from his readers over at the Toronto Star, which means that I’m back, answering them as caustically as I possibly fucking can, pissing off the select group of fucking soft-brained “readers”– a term I use loosely because I’m not entirely sure they’re literate– who are “tired” of this “shtick” and don’t think it’s “funny,” because apparently they’ve failed to “recognize” that underneath the “recurring” “gags” there are some “interesting” “topics” being “discussed” while they’re busy “weeping” about their fragile “eyes” being “offended” by free content on the “internet” like I put a fucking “gun” to their “heads” to make them “read” it.
As always, I have not read any of Griffin’s answers. If there’s a question you’d like me to answer, submit it to Griffin here, and maybe he’ll select it for a future mail bag. Fingers crossed!
Q-Richard Stoeten:
Have admired your work for years. Two points. First, what are your thoughts about Travis Snider going into next year? Is he going to get 500 AB in the big leagues? Also, thought you’d either love or hate my post: http://mcantil.com/a-blockbuster-hot-stove-deal-that-makes-too-much-sense-to-ever-happen/ Keep up the great work.
M.C., Chicago
Really, MC? I have to click your link to see what your post is about? And then I begrudgingly do so and it’s dated November 14th, yet about early August’s topic du jour, trading Jose Bautista for Joey Votto? Yes sirree, a blockbuster hot-stove deal that makes too much sense to ever happen… as long as you conveniently forget that Votto’s under control for only two more seasons while the Bautista’s locked up for four plus an option. Ugh.
Anywho… Snider probably won’t get 500 big league at-bats this year, and I think that’s a shame. I also think nobody wants to keep hearing me go off about what a waste it would be to give up so soon on a not-yet-24-year-old who once showed so much promise, or how absurd it is that fans of the club where Roy Halladay and Jose Bautista each went from looking like their careers were mere footnotes to blossoming into superstars can act like they’ve sufficiently deigned this youngster enough patience. So I won’t.
Q-Hey Richard Stoeten,
Love the blog and the mailbag. My question to you is in regards to Chone Figgins. I saw something online that suggested that M’s would be willing to eat a considerable amount of his salary to get rid of him. This is easy to understand considering what he represents to them (huge risk gone bad). However, if he can be used as a super-sub he seems to hold a lot of value. Do you agree that the Jays could do worse than having him back up Lawrie, our second baseman, and in the outfield. I also know that this would be a dream that many wouldn’t dare dream, but what about if we take on his entire contract, throw in Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek, Travis Snider, David Cooper (or even Adam Lind), and attempt to bring King Felix to Toronto? What are your thoughts?
Brian, Victoria, B.C.
Um… no, I don’t think “what he represents to them” has anything near to do with why Seattle might eat a lot of salary to move Chone Figgins as the fact that he’s been absolutely fucking terrible, and that any amount less than all of it that the M’s have to pay a guy who was worth -1.2 WAR last season would be a huge win for them. I liked Figgins early in his career, and I suppose I’d give him a look if the cost was zero, but he was so terrible last year that his value can’t possibly any lower. Seattle might as well give him a chance to build some– what have they got to lose?
As for the part of your comment pertaining to Felix Hernandez, I’m not sure why Seattle would be so desperate to offload Figgins’ salary that they’d move one of the five best pitchers in the American League for a bunch of prospects at the low end of their value. I mean, if you had Figgins, would you move him and Ricky Romero for a package like that?
As much as I still have hope– more than most– for Snider and Drabek, I sure as fuck don’t have enough faith that they’re for sure going to figure it the fuck out to want to take Seattle’s end of that proposal.
Q-Hi Richard Stoeten,
I wanted to get your take on Chone Figgins and whether he would be a good acquisition. Here’s a superior defender and switch hitter that can play 2B,SS,3B and the OF. His numbers are a little down since he went to Seattle (it seems everyone not named Suzuki does too), but he probably just needs a change of scenery. If it’s true that Seattle is willing to absorb some salary (he has $17 million with 2 years, excluding the 2012 600PA vesting option) then I’m thinking he could be a pretty good bargain since Carroll (who the Jays were apparently interested in) got $7-million over two seasons and doesn’t have near the ceiling that Figgins has. At worst he would be a Rajai Davis — a backup with great speed, but he would be much better defensively with better on-base skills, switch hitter that can play OF & IF. If they dumped Davis’ $2.75 million salary, a more versatile Figgins might not be a much more expensive option. Thoughts?
Cheers,
Adam
Those “better on-base skills” saw him reach in just 24.1% of his 313 plate appearances last season, which almost matched his disgustin .243 SLG– making for a cool .484 OPS. He’ll probably bounce back a bit, but to where? Up a tick to terrible from astonishingly fucking terrible? He’d make an intriguing guy to take a flier on if not for the contract.
Also, maybe the Jays were interested in Carroll, but it can’t be said enough: they’re “interested” in everybody.
Q-Richard Stoeten,
With the news swirling around the baseball community that the Jays are in fact in the market for a big-name closer, does a move like this in fact state, YES we are going to compete for a playoff spot next season? Would the Jays then if they did acquire a big name closer make more substantial moves to further solidify their roster? It would seem that if a closer was signed first it would be a precursor to bigger moves during the offseason do to the fact you just don’t get a big name closer if you aren’t willing to compete in 2012 or 2013?
Scott Cochrane, Niagara on the Lake
Scott, I have no idea where this “big-name” stuff came from. Yes, they want a guy who can reliably close out games for them, but that’s a whole fuckload different than just paying for a name. Their aim, apart from minor moves to patch over roster holes, seems to be to continue adding long-term high-end talent that’s not going to burn their future payroll and roster flexibility– the exact opposite of jumping into BJ Ryan country again.
Not only that, Paul Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos seem to be keenly aware that once they start asking Rogers for big outlays of cash– to shore up areas they’ve failed to develop players to fill– it’s a hard process to stop. Shareholders expect results on the field and at the gate, and while a big expenditure might provide just that, if it doesn’t the club will be forced to make things right the next winter, which undoubtedly means asking for more money. Things can quickly snowball the wrong way and, before you know it, you’re the Chicago Cubs and you have to start the whole process again, beginning with the shedding of those same contracts.
Sure, that’s a nightmare scenario that doesn’t have to happen if the club makes sound decisions with the company’s investments, but it’s a pitfall that can be avoided altogether by simply having a little patience. I believe Anthopoulos when he says that he sees his club on the same path as the Texas Rangers, who built through the draft and through trade, eschewing long-term free agent signings until Adrian Beltre came along last winter. And I don’t doubt that everyone involved remembers well what happened when Uncle Ted last increased payroll, which the club promptly invested into the likes of Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Frank Thomas, AJ Burnett and the Beej.
That doesn’t mean they’re not going to find ways to continue to get better or that they might not compete as soon as 2012, especially with the extra Wild Card spot in play. But if you’re talking about big free agent signings– and I think you are– I just don’t see the Jays putting the cart before the horse (except maybe on Yu Darvish). And don’t forget, they already have made some tremendous upgrades on the 2011 club, with the acquisition and promotion of Colby Rasmus, Brett Lawrie and Henderson Alvarez, all of whom will play full seasons instead of mere partial ones. Not a bad start already, right?
Q-Do you think the Jays have a chance at obtaining Joey Votto this offseason? He has two more years left on his deal, and the Reds need to cut payroll. They have a young 1B, Yonder Alonso who could replace Votto to some extent. The Jays have a surplus of young pitching that they could offer (Deck McGuire/Kyle Drabek) and a young controllable middle infielder (either Yunel Escobar or Adeiny Hechavarria) that would be a good package for Votto. Dealing Lind, Snider, two pitching prospects and a young catcher (Carlos Perez or AJ Jimenez) could net Felix Hernandez as well.
Jason Sinnarajah, San Francisco
Neither of those packages could land those players.
For one thing, both clubs are almost certainly looking for immediate, young, controllable help at the Major League level– and as much as I believe in a guy like Snider, who right now could seriously think he’s ready to step in and help a big league club? For another, I keep looking at the names you’ve suggested the Jays give up, and I’m still searching for Brett Lawrie, Travis d’Arnaud, Anthony Gose, Drew Hutchison or Nestor Molina– I’m pretty sure other teams would be looking for those names too. Unless you’re prepared to start moving them, or guys like Brandon Morrow and Henderson Alvarez, I don’t see where you start a conversation.
Fun experiment: find a fan of either the Reds or the Mariners and see how fucking far those suggestions get you.
Q-Hey Richard Stoeten,
I love what Jose Bautista does for the Jays and he is clearly their best hitter. That being said, AA has expressed that the Jays have money available to spend to overpay for a player or two but only when those players are the final pieces. If the Jays do not believe that they can really compete in ‘12, I think that it makes sense to trade Jose. His value will never be higher than it is right now. Even if he hits .290 this year with 35 HR, by 2013 (when they will be on the cusp of really competing) he’ll probably be around .280 25 HR. There are many people in the league who the Jays can go after that can put up those same numbers. The Jays should see if they can trade Jose for a young stud pitcher who has started to prove himself (Ivan Nova) and 2 other top prospects (Jesus Montero, Eduardo Nunez). I don’t think that is an unreasonable asking price for the best hitter in the league. Do you think the Jays have or will explore options that involve trading Jose? If they can get a package that includes a front-line starter do you think they should consider this? Thanks!
Josh Cymbalista, Thornhill
This question really deserves its own post– something I’ve been mulling over since Parkes similarly suggested the unthinkable a couple weeks back– but to give the Reader’s Digest version, I’ll say that there’s merit to the consideration, no doubt.
However, with the off-season only just begun, I don’t think anybody is yet in position to say that the Jays are embarking on another write-off campaign. I don’ t think they’re one of the elite teams in baseball, either, but a club that was 9 games out of what would have been the new, second Wild Card spot is going to be giving a lot fewer starts the likes of Jo-Jo Reyes and a terrible Kyle Drabek, and a lot more at-bats to Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus and someone at second base who isn’t, for all intents and purposes, a fucking corpse.
The Jays got a .596 OPS from centre field in 2011, .634 from second base, .677 from left field, none of which can get much worse. And the only reason their third basemen OPS’d .773 for the season is that Jose Bautista spent a few weeks dragging that number upwards before Brett Lawrie exploded on the scene and made it respectable. A full season with those positions better filled, plus Alvarez, a Brandon Morrow who gets the occasional ground ball, a possible mid-season rotation pick-me-up from Drabek, Drew Hutchison or Nestor Molina, and a better-managed bullpen geared toward actual efficiency, not placating guys who were promised innings when the club acquired them in an attempt to game the system for extra draft picks, could go a seriously long way.
Yes, Bautista is probably at his peak value right now, but while they still have huge strides yet to make, the club undoubtedly stands to be better. And unless he completely falls off an Adam Dunn-shaped cliff, Bautista won’t have that much less value next winter. The Jays would be far better served seeing how 2012 plays out before deciding that Jose isn’t going to be here when they truly reach contention.
Q-Hi Richard Stoeten!
There are certainly lots of rumours floating around right now – I love this time of year! What do you think about the Jays chances of landing Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado from Atlanta? Prado can play second, as well as the outfield, and Jurrjens is a young, mid-high end of the rotation guy. The Royals were asked for young outfielders but wouldn’t part with them — we have lots of them! Enjoy the free agent frenzy!!
Jon Empringham, Woodstock
With Kelly Johnson all but certain to be elsewhere next season, Prado makes an interesting option to play second base. At the plate in 2011 he had the worst season by just about every measure– including BABIP, which was 49 points lower than his career norm and maybe suggests a bounce back. Bill James’ projection (available at FanGraphs) has him with a .333 wOBA, which is better than you’d get out of Mike McCoy or most of whatever’s left on the free agent pile. Plus, Prado made just $3.1-million last year, and is under team control for two more seasons.
No, he’s not a guy to be over the moon about by any stretch, but he’s a viable option at least, even though he’s never been a plus defender at second according to UZR, and was in the positive for only the first time in 2011 by DRS. Of course, whether he’s worth going after would depend on the price.
Jurrjens, on the other hand, I’m not so impressed with. Sure, he’s similarly cheap and under control two more years, the ERA looks good, and he could eat up some innings, but there are a lot of red flags there. As Drew pointed out in a recent post for Getting Blanked, in 2011 Jurrjens struck out fewer than six hitters per nine innings, his average fastball velocity dropped 2 MPH in 2011, and he threw a higher percentage of sliders– which especially stress the arm– than ever before.
He’s cheap enough that he’d be worth giving a shot to at the right price, but I’d be wary of what I’d have to give up to get a guy whose selling points are a 2011 ERA that’s a run below his FIP, and his supposed ability to log a bunch of innings. If he’s moved, someone will overpay, and I’d rather it not be the Jays. Prado I’d take.
Q-Hi Richard Stoeten.
Is this the Jays’ year to take the AL East? Is the AL East still the premier division in MLB now that the NL has won two WS in a row? Boston has tanked, the Yankees have blown it two years in a row in the post-season and don’t show the desire to win and the Rays seem to have worn out their welcome. How long can we live in the future? Is Rogers going to sign 2-3 free agents this year to finally make the Jays a contender? What do they need? A starting pitcher, a closer and what else?
Bruce Hutchison, Winnipeg
Seriously? The Red Sox missed the playoffs by a cunt hair, the Yankees lost in the crapshoot that is the first round, and the Rays are about to add Matt Moore to an already sick rotation and get a full year out of Evan Longoria and Desmond Jennings. Plus, now that winning the Wild Card is massively devalued thanks to the fact that it only gets you a ticket to a play-in game, the Jays are more than ever going to be building to be a long-term potential division winner. Overpaying to get a couple big free agents here might get them to the dance– and that simply isn’t enough.
If their core players– Adam Lind, I’m looking at you– show they can actually play in the Majors, things click and they’re in the race come next July, I have no doubt that they’ll strengthen the club on the trade market. But I’m afraid anything else, at this point, falls into the category of “unlikely.”
Q-Always love your fall/winter news and insight. With the Jays organization that seems to be moving towards a homegrown Canadian feeling, what are the chances of a Jays minor league team moving into Ottawa’s empty baseball venue?
Philip McCloskey, Orangeville
I suspect the Jays want it, Ottawa wants it, and that ultimately it will get done. Maybe not this year, but you’re right that the Jays marketing department sees a huge advantage in getting a foothold in cities across the country, and having their top prospects in Ottawa is a great way to do so (even better would be in Montreal, but I digress).
But let’s not get too wrapped up with the Maple-flavoured warm fuzzies here. All this pro-Canadiana stuff is entirely marketing and branding. The Jays haven’t suddenly become pie-eyed maple dicks like the people who wanted to throw up when Adam Loewen was released. Canadianness isn’t without its value to the club, but it’s not the be-all, end-all. Ultimately they want to win, and putting too much value in personnel with the right birth certificate is more hindrance than help. Oh, but they’ll exploit your patriotism where they can, as any smart organization would.
Richard
Have admired your work for years. Would you like to meet me sometime at the malt shoppe so that we could order one of those delicious Coke-a-Cola ice cream floats? We would only need to order one, but we’d get two straws so that we could share it! Keep up the great work!
PS – I made you mix tape of some of my favourite songs and I’ve sent it to you. When I hear those songs I always think of you. Hope you like it!
Unfortunately for the Blue Jays they play with an unbalanced schedule in the AL East with the Yankees & Red Sox (and an extremely talented Rays club), not the AL West. The Rangers, for all their glory the last 2 years, went 22-22 vs. the AL East this year and 19-25 last year. This formula of sitting back and twiddling your thumbs until hopefully all your talent gels together will not work under the current system. And before somebody mentions the Rays, their 3 best players came from the first 3 picks in the draft – the Blue Jays have never tanked bad enough to have that luxury.
If it doesn’t make financial sense to sign a free agent, it never will. And if you aren’t willing to compete for talent on the open market, do us all a favour and sell the fucking team. Otherwise the timeline, which started in 2009 when Beeston said he’d have a new president by Christmas, will just keep getting pushed further and further back. And in the meantime the Blue Jays will continue wasting away one of the best players in baseball, like they did for years with Roy Halladay and like they appear content to do with Jose Bautista.
There’s simply no way to approach the 140m Beeston likes to speak of without being a player on the free agent market. It’s getting more evident by the day that he’s just blowing smoke up everybody’s ass. One day he spouts off about how much the club can spend, and the next it’s about how he doesn’t want to hand out 5+ year deals. It’s fucking ridiculous that the media is giving him a free ride on this.
Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!
Is it everyone’s ultimate goal to see the team spend $140M or is it to see the team get on the right track towards being a winner …. because I’d rather see the team become a winner regardless of whatever the team’s MLB budget happens to be. I don’t want to see the team sign long term, expensive contracts which will hamstring future flxibility just for the sake of placating the less patient among the fanbase. I’d much rather see the team build a solid nucleus of controllable players and when the time is right make a trade or sign a free agent to address a position of need. From everything that AA has said (and Beetson has said) that seems to be the direction that the team intends to head. AA and Beaston have not done anything to cause me to question their sincerity when they say that the money will be there when the time is right.
Just skimmed over yours and Griff’s articles and was surprised by how much you guys agree on this one – Griff was especially reasonable with his answers this time, albeit he avoided using the word “cunt”, for better or worse.
I agree with how the Jays have been approaching things, and the thought to one day paying for high-end free agents when needed, but even then, they would try to limit years, and be willing to pay higher per year.
If you think it is wasting Jose’s talent…. if you sign two high-end free agents, we might just be wasting their talents too!
Also, on a side note, I don’t think the Jays will attract a lot of interest, as most high-end free agents want to WIN!!!! If the nucleus isn’t in place, they won’t even sniff at the Jays…. unless they offer way more money, and then you are essentially overpaying.
I see a solid year with a good outlook for 2013 being able to hook some high-end free agents, otherwise, we are wasting an opportunity to let the kids play and prove themselves, by plunking in a high-end free agent, perhaps one or two years too early….. if they would even come right now, that is..
i think the possibility of trading bautista should definitely be considered. if the jays are going to win with bautista, theyll have to come up with a front line arm. it might be a few years before one of alvarez, hutchinson or norris or whoever the fuck takes that step and that might be too late. free agency isnt much of an option and if they were to land a big arm via trade it would put too much of a dent in the farm system. however, i also think that if they trade bautista they’d have to trade escobar too. im not sure yunel would’ve had the year he did without bautista; those dudes are like best buds. they probably cartwheel into a standing 69 with each other before every game. but i am especially loathe to trade the best shortstop we’ve had since tony fucking fernandez.
I would also like to add that in no way shape or form should we trade Jose. I understand the thought process, but he will be a core element of this team…. As you see with the Red Sox, you need somebody in the club house that has respect… that respect comes from time served and accomplishments.
You can’t have a high-end free agent come into a clubhouse being the best player. It throws the whole team out of whack. If Prince Fielder comes here, Jose is still the man….
Even in 3-5 years when the Jays will hit their stride, he will still be a key piece….. “how many of you fuckers have hit 50 home runs?….. sit the fuck down Granderson! (via free agency)”
So much stuff I disagree with. Just my opinion.
The Jays play,have always played and will continue to play an unbalanced schedule in the Al east.It ain’t changin so they have to deal with it.I once asked some who behind in a playoff series what his strategy was.His answer was “go out and win”.Instead of complaining about the situation you can’t change,deal with it and win.Fuck the extra wildcard,I’m sick of hearing about it.Win the fucking division.The Jays have done it more than once.The Jays don’t need to tank to get 1st rounders,AA has been trading for everyone else’s former first’s.
The Jays have tried to go the spending route and long term contracts, with disasterous results.Would you’d rather have Wells,Rios,Ryan as your core?Perhaps the Jays shoulda made a big splash and signed Werth and Crawford?And if both those tank again this year what do those teams do with those contracts?Would you trade with the Yankees for Arod and Jeter?That would increase the payroll for a few years.
I realize your frustration. But throwing money around for long term contracts may actually block young stars from joining the team.
So in building the Jays you need good ( no, I mean, great )players.How do you get them?
1.Draft them.
Scout your draft picks throughly. Get as many high picks as you can.Even AA realizes only 1 in 10 will be good and not always great.He’s hoping with better scouting it’ll be 2 in 10.
2.Trade for them.
People at DJF were giggling 1 and a half years ago about what it would take take to get Rasmus.The Jays would have had to offer 5 guys from the major league roster and that still wouldn’t be enough.Hilarious dreams that would never happen.
Also with the 27th ranked Minor league system,the Jays had nothing to trade to get those players.Times have changed don’t you think?
3.Acquire from the international market.
Take chances and set records to sign the Latin American stars. Due dilegence in the Asian leagues.
4.Free agency
Until #1,#2,#3 are set up, no need to overspend here.And don’t spend until you know what you need.Better options may be in your own system.If Snider or Thames or even Rasmus hit .230,you can write them off.You can’t write off Werth or Wells or Crawford as easily. You gotta trot them out there everyday ,cause they make so much, contributing fuck all to a penant run.People in beantown were actually saying that the 2011 Bosox were the best team EVER.
A lot of money in beantown pissed away last year and probably next year without the result they were looking for.
The team won’t be getting off track by spending money this offseason. Rogers has the money and there is no excuse for a $60 mil payroll. Make a trade for Brandon Philips. Sign Prince Fielder. Bring back Francisco and don’t forget to grab Darvish when he posts. That’s all they need to do and we’re contenders again.
freddy garcia signs 1 year for only 5mil. fuck alex, couldn’t you have gone after him? you know kill two birds with one stone? make the yank’s life difficult? He’s been reliable for 2 years and would take some of the pressure off the kids. We’ve lost 2 workhorses in halladay and marcum and alex has replaced them with nothing. What’s the plan alex? oh right go with the kids.
Right, because spending $100m on Darvish, $200m on Prince, and trading god knows what for Brandon fucking Phillips has zero potential to cause things to get off track.
Hey Stoeten, about the Minor League team in Ottawa or Montreal like you had suggested, I read somewhere (not sure where, could be bullshit) that it might be both, Ottawa at A or AA and Montreal at AAA would that work at all?
Imagine AA couldn’t get rid of Wells and Williams didn’t have a brain fart in picking up Rios.To make a statement about how serious the Jays were , AA picks up Crawford.
There’s a 50 million plus outfield.
For how many years?
You want it, you can have it.
I get what you’re saying about overspending for Ryan, Burnett, Wells, Rios, Werth, CJ Wilson, etc, but none of these guys have had the career Fielder has had thus far. You’re always paying for past performance if you spend money, but who would you rather pay if we’re to believe the talk/horseshit about $140M payrolls?
What’s the point of stockpiling a farm system if you aren’t really thinking about using these prospects to augment the MLB roster, either via trade for established players or the right mix of MLB-ready prospects plus high-end long-term prospects? How long are we going to continue protecting the best damn hitter in the game with the likes of EE, Hill, and Lind? It’s sad.
Define “off track” because that looks to me, on paper, like a much, much, much, much, much, much, much, much better team.
Isn’t that the goddamn point, to win a WS, not to win the most economically viable treadmill team award? This blog never changes. First, it was impossible to win because of the unbalanced schedule, so a slew of posters wanted to beat up on Kansas City twenty more times a year. Now, we can’t spend because it’s foolish and we’re not supposed to spend and it’s foolish to spend because of Veron Wells and we can’t spend because we can’t spend. Stop being such fucking pussies, guys. The proof is right in front of you: if you can’t get lucky and secure ELITE talent at the draft for many years straight (TBR), you have to spend to supplement your core (Phillies, Yankees, Rangers, Boston, oh, basically any team that fucking wins). Drafting well and being smart with cash in certain areas and taking gambles on free agents CAN occur at the same time. In fact, it’s the successful formula.
Well it WAS pretty close though.
I never complained about the AL East. I love that the Blue Jays play in it. But if you’re going to pretend the Rangers are the model the Jays should be emulating, you’d be ignoring a gigantic reality that helped Texas get to where they went the last 2 seasons. Their performance in the AL East suggests they weren’t as good as they appeared.
You can’t cherry pick the free agents that did poorly. Yes, Crawford and Werth had poor seasons. Neither of those players were ever under serious consideration from the Blue Jays considering their roster construction. It would be like me saying the Jays should have signed Beltre and Lee as proof positive that free agents work.
For the last 15 years the AL East has been dominated by one of 2 kind of teams – the kind that spends a fuck ton on payroll, and the kind that was so bad for so long that they couldn’t help but draft elite talent.
Every move a team makes has the potential to cause things to get off track. Perhaps you don’t remember the near-universal rippage of AA after he guaranteed Bautista 14m a year from 2012-2015. But AA felt it was a risk he had to take, and it worked.
Just because moves have the potential to backfire doesn’t mean you don’t make them. And for all the hand wringing about Vernon Wells and Alex Rios, those contracts were dumped on to other teams.
I just find it funny how people think if we ship a team 4-5 mediocre players they will give us a superstar. Quality > quantity.
Agreed….btw, what ARE we gonna do with Kevin Ahrens?
“There’s simply no way to approach the 140m Beeston likes to speak of without being a player on the free agent market. “
It doesn’t mean that they have to be stupid about spending money. Out of the “Big-4″ free agents, I’d question whether I really want the Jays to go after any of them given the cost and the fact that 3 of the 4 (even all 4 if you factor Pujol’s “age” in) have serious concerns about whether they will perform to the level their contracts dictate
If you ballpark these guys will be worth 5 WAR a year * 7 years (no way for Reyes and Wilson) and will cost say $160 million, I’d rather AA take that $23 million a year and find surplus value above the 5 WAR than lock-up one guy.
But think of the opportunity cost of all the money spent on those two bums (bum is probably too harsh for Vernon). That is the biggest concern here. Can the Jays and Rogers support a large ($100, even $150+) payroll? Yes. Does Rogers have the patience like Steinbrenner to have terrible contracts on the books? Rightfully, no. If AA is getting that payroll, I for one don’t want it used on a guy who is looking at the biggest contract in MLB history, a fat guy whose Dad broke down at a relatively quite young age, a shortstop who can’t play 100 games a year, or a #2/3 pitcher
AA’s mandate is not to be Brian Cashman… it’s to be Andrew Friedman with money.
Wells, Rios, BJ Ryan…ya….let’s rush into this
Who gives a fuck about a balanced schedule? Seriously, all it means is the Jays can beat up Kansas more, but the Yankees and Red Sox and even the Rays will tear everyone else a new asshole too. It won’t change a thing, just win.
The payroll will be increasing every year, but to say you want our payroll to jump 70 million in one year is just absurd. When Lawrie, Alvarez, Rasmus, or any other prospect who succeeds in the major’s contract is up, we will have the money to keep them here, unlike the Royals or Indians etc. Thats where you will see the money going, and some to free agents. No doubt the Jays will offer what they think is a suitable contract this coming off season to free agents, if they don’t like it they can fuck off basically, no use getting players this season that don’t really fit with what we need at a stupid year/rate.
Amaro tai mone hoy. Jai hok amar khub valo lagse.
I disagree with you: second base could get much worse.
If the Jays miss the boat on every 2B free agent and trade candidate, which is possible given the demand, I don’t see them calling up Hech a year early, so that means Mike McCoy as a starter. That could get ugly.
There’s a whole second tier of free agents you could pursue beyond Pujols, Fielder, Wilson, and Reyes if you decide you can’t make the long term commitments to those guys. Last year the Blue Jays sat on the sidelines for talent outside of the bullpen; it would be a shame to see that happen again.
The idea is that Mark Teahen shouldn’t be the second highest paid player on the roster. Throw some money at some guys and see what happens. Maybe you’ll reap the benefits of a Lance Berkman type season from someone.
I don’t entirely disagree with you about the second tier guys, but when you examine the list: a) the Jays likely will sign one or two of call it the next 26 b) there aren’t that many guys that are that desireable relative to the Jays’ situation or at all.
Ignoring closers and Darvish (who is the #1 guy I want the Jays to sign), out of MLBTR’s top-30, the only guys I would want the Jays to be in on are: Jackson, Buerhle, Ortiz, Kuroda, Iwakuma, KJ and Bedard. Some of the guys in the 31-50 range that are interesting are Wada, Kotchman, Furcal. Pretty thin crop if you are assuming the Jays aren’t looking to sign an outfielder.
Prado’s an interesting guy in that the Braves have moved him all over the diamond.
Not saying that Prado is Jose Bautista, but JoeyBats has said that his versatility was, at times, detrimental to his development. His teams kept shifting him around, treating him like a super-utility player and he changed his approach at the plate to keep a major league job.
Who knows if this has affected Prado or if he tried to “do too much” in 2011 based on the stereotypical LF profile. Seems like the one intriguing 2B option on the trade market.
Im just curious as to what is seen in these circles as an acceptable big money free agent player? I dont think one such person exists simply based on the rules in place that govern when someone can become a free agent. Any star player entering free agency will likely require a deal whose length will put them into AT LEAST their early thirties. That right there is a no go on this board no matter who it is. So let’s just eliminate the big ticket free agent as a weapon in the arsenal of team building.
While I agree to an extent with your point about starting to spend money, I believe the key is your statement that you “have to spend to SUPPLEMENT YOUR CORE” (my emphasis).
The Jays are not at the ‘spend full out’ stage as their core is not yet fully established (Romero, Joey Bats, and Yunel appear to be the only three that can be considered to be true pieces of the core at this point…everyone else has some type of question mark beside their name, largely due to youth and/or inconsistent track record). One, maybe two, more years will bring the core more into focus to allow the spending to begin.
In my mind, I have always equated the Jays team under AA to the Jays of 29 years previous. For example, the goal for 2012 should be similar to 1983 (i.e. the first solid record over .500, with the core being established, team within five games or so of a playoff spot on Sept 1 so that there are some slightly meaningful games at the end of the year). 2013 should be similar to 1984…Jays take serious run at division, but may ultimately fall short. 2014 should get you to 1985…start of the long desired period of sustained success envisioned by AA.
Sorry…above comment was meant as a reply to ‘Trillem Dafoe’.
Very good post that sums up the frustration of Jays fans. The team is improving & should be better with the upgrades of Lawrie & Rasmus. I assume the Jays will try to sign Kelly Johnson. He should help the team more than Prado.
I think fans should wait & see what AA does this offseason before complaining.
If the second wildcard is in place for 2012, I hope the Jays don’t waste starts on a Jo Jo Reyes type starters.
Does anyone think Romero, will regress as a starter?