“I don’ see us doing large deals,” said Alex Anthopoulos at yesterday’s luncheon for the Toronto chapter of the BBWAA, according to Ian Harrison of Toro Magazine.

“I don’t think we’re going to do something we consciously don’t believe in, or grossly overpay, unless we feel very confident that it’s got a very good chance to put us in the World Series,” he said, according to John Lott of the National Post.

“The six, seven, eight year contracts, from a historical standpoint, very few work out. From our standpoint, the balance is, there are going to be deals to be made, certainly free agents, trades, things like that, I just don’t think you’ll see us do any large deals because I don’t know of a time that a huge contract has been signed, seven, eight years, $100-plus-million, that anybody in the industry has turned around and said that’s a great deal for the club. It’s not about necessarily great deals for the club, but where someone hasn’t said, that may not really work out for the club,” Shi Davidi of Sportsnet quotes Anthopoulos as saying. “That’s ultimately what it comes down to.”

“For his part Anthopoulos said he felt the best time to try and make a risky move is prior to the trade deadline,” Davidi writes, “when the ‘percentages of handicapping your ability to get to the playoffs and win are so much greater than the winter.’ “

“We’re not there yet, we’re not going to go out and buy a team,” said Paul Beeston, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun. “Not going to happen,” he added, according to Harrison.

“I think they have every reason to think we have a shot next year,” Beeston added, according to Lott’s piece.

So… there’s that.

Comments (157)

  1. Fielder will never happen.

  2. We were definitely never in on Heath Bell. I know us fans were all scared for a minute there, but I bet it was just AA on a conference call saying “oh yeah, Heath Bell, real fuckin’ interested here” between hitting the mute button on the speaker phone to stifle laughter, just to fuck with the rumour market

  3. Payroll will never hit Beeston’s vaunted ‘$120M’ level on re-signings alone.  Bautista, Yunel, Romero all locked up, Lawrie, JPA will be cheap for a few years yet, the new wave of prospects breaking in don’t cost anything. 

    So if not on free agents, then where?  Trading for big salary players?  How is that any different than just signing one?  And isn’t it more harmful to long-term, sustainable success in that you have to deal top prospect inventory to acquire those guys?

    …. just something that’s been bugging me on the whole “we will spend”/”but we won’t ‘buy’ a team”/”we won’t take shortcuts”/”we’d rather trade away prospects for bigtime players” doublespeak that’s going on.

    but carry on….

  4. Sign Fielder and Darvish = World Series Contender. Rogers are cheap f*cking bastards. 

  5. “I guess I have to say it -  I’m not going to be the Alabama coach.  I don’t know how many times I’ve got to respond to rumor and innuendo”

  6. My guess would be acquiring high ceiling talent and being able to afford to pay them market value contracts before they hit arb/FA. If this team was close enough to warrant signing a Fielder or Pujols type for the length and the salary they will command, we’d be hearing different things from management. 

    What this says to me is that they have fairly accurately evaluated where their team is at, recognizing that they AREN’T in a position to make one big splash and instantly be World Series contenders, so they will stay the course until they get to that point, which may not be far off, but perhaps further off than some people would like to hear.

  7. I’m so on board with the Anthopolusian plan. I was starting to really get nervous with all that Bell talk. But having said that, some long term big contracts do work out. Look at the first Jeter 10 year deal. Or Arod. Or CC. Prince is a model of consistency and health. Sure he’s a fat guy, but he’s also a vegetarian. That’s gotta be the “good fat.” All I’m saying is that you can’t flat out reject long term contracts for big players, because that’s what the elite players demand. If the Jays never sign a big contract again, simply because of the Franks, BJs, & Vernons of the past have made them gun shy, then I think that’s closed-minded.

    The biggest concern in my mind is that the Jays currently have the best player in baseball, at his best time. Why not add now? I guess there’s the argument that the Jays once had the best pitcher in baseball, at his best time, and they failed at trying to build a team around him. But this time, the team is mostly there. 

    Forgive me for being an optimist. Hard not to get excited about this team, and dreaming about Prince & Home Run King together…

  8. Stop being so sensible.

    (thanks though, I’m feeling better now)

  9. “ It’s not about necessarily great deals for the club, but where someone hasn’t said, that may not really work out for the club.”

    Beeston is schooling AA well. The amount of bullshit the 2 of them spew together is remarkable. Maybe someone should  remind AA that his Bautista extension fell under the exact same category last year.

  10. So basically he hoping the Reds are out of it by the trade deadline and are open to trading Votto for a boat load of prospects! At least that’s what I am interpreting this as….

  11. Guys that will be considerations for long term deals in this years’ crop of players would be, in order of importance 1. Brandon Morrow 2. Dustin McGowan 3. Colby Rasmus.  The latter 2 not even close to important on signing Morrow if he gets off to a solid start.  McGowan will probably be 1 year at the end of the season, while Colby will be based on their long term plans between him and Gose.

  12. Are we going to get a post about the Euro 2012 draw? 

  13. AA is lying if he’s saying that long term contracts don’t often work out. They don’t often work out when you sign a guy into his 40s, but when you sign a 27 year old – they almost always HISTORICALLY work out quite well for the signing team.

    Add to that the fact that an 8 year deal with Fielder will end when he’s 35. Or, put another way: end at the same age as the deal with Jose Bautista will conclude. It’s also an age  when DHs have traditionally remained productive.

    Fielder doesn’t have to be a WIN NOW move – but it is a move that at least signals that the Jays are ready to compete in the next couple years without having to delve into trades and smaller potato free agents.

    You sign Fielder so that you don’t have to sign middle relievers for close to what you’re paying Fielder because all your homegrown pitchers can step up to those roles.

    I don’t get why anyone would want to trade away prospect depth when Fielder appears to me as a safe play – this isn’t the start of “let’s always sign big FAs” – it’s a move that says: in this one instance, this move is not as crazy or as drastic as it would have been under the old CBA, or in years when the Yanks, Sox, Phillies, et al. are all bidding up the cost.

  14. The thing that bothers me about this is that last season the fucking St. Louis Cardinals won the World Series.

    How close were they at season’s beginning to thinking they were legit? How did their lineup stack up against the big spenders? Did ANYONE think they were just one piece away from a Championship?

    You don’t need to be the best team on paper to win. The Giants had no business thinking they could beat the Yankees or Red Sox – or Rangers for that matter – and yet – they have a banner.

    I’m on board with building a team the right way – by being smart with money, and developing high ceiling talent from within – but sometimes a GM can make winning harder than it really needs to be. We don’t need the perfect lineup to win. I’m not saying throw $200M at the first free agent to show interest – but don’t go into the whole process waiting for a sign from above that we’re finally contenders. You’ll just waste the prime of Bautista’s career waiting – only to have to replace him when you’re finally set.

  15. So if not on free agents, then where?  Trading for big salary players?  How is that any different than just signing one?

    Because you get to choose, and target the near exact player you want, and then you have some more control of what you have to pay him going forward. Sorta like he’s done with Lawrie or Escobar or Rasmus.

  16. So our general manager doesn’t want to engage in a game of risk, the same game of risk that has led to championship after championship.

    All aboard the treadmill.

  17. +1000000 points

  18. It think the Jays are will gladly take on some really bad deals as long as they are rapidly expiring deals. I could see a lot of salary going to Mark Teahen type players that you take on to reduce the cost on someone you really want.

  19. Welp, if AA and Beeston firmly believe this, then we get to enjoy watching another elite player waste his prime with the Jays. Terrific.

  20. I actually agree with this approach for the most part. But t the same time I´m getting sick of these guys talking like they´ve been spending 120 mil/Yr. on payroll for the last 10 years.  Is there some reason they can´t go ¨backdoor¨ on things *AND* make the odd FA acquisition ? They keep saying they won´t  do so until they´re on the cusp of getting to the World Series…..well, compare yourself to Philly and see how far off that place is. In the meantime you´re paying Bautista serious quid to mash for nothing.   

  21. The DH point is HUGE. Everyone is citing Fielder’s size & his father’s early breakdown as a reason to not sign him. Well, if Prince declines in his age 33 and 34 seasons (the 6th and 7th of a deal) to the extent that Cecil did the contract should be well worth it. Cecil was still a valuable hitter those final 2 years and he was declining from a much lower peak than Prince has shown. If Prince’s downside is that he’ll hit better than .246/.340/.405 in the final 2 years of the deal people are making much ado about nothing.

  22. Actually, trading for guys before they hit free agency is not the same as just signing them. Firstly, you tend to get them a little bit younger. Secondly, you often have the chance to do a Romero style contract that buys out their arbitration (or remaining arbitration) years and some of their early free agency. It’s similar to what Boston did with Adrian Gonzalez, and Josh Beckett before that. I think the point of acquiring so much minor league depth. Notice in that how they have thus far stayed away from buying too many of those really big name and expensive high school/college kids in the draft (like Josh Bell) and instead used their money to acquire a shit ton of lesser know, but well-scouted, high quality talent (Snydergaard, Nicolino,etc.) To me, that says they are looking to build up sheer volume of high-end prospects in the hopes of acquiring tradeable assets. Remember, the going rate for a super star is three top prospects. And for the most part, you can get super stars on a far better contract when you get them earlier because you have far more negotiating leverage. You also get them for the better years of their careers.

  23. sorry for all of the grammar shit in that comment. I should have proof read it first.

  24. There’s been so much speculation and disinformation going on. I’m thinking they’ll trade for a 3 starter this off season and sign a catcher. That’s probably it. Most likely deal with the closer situation in-house and trade for 2B during the season.

  25. Consider yourselves MLSE’d for this season lol

  26. I’m sure there’s a plan in place for the offseason.  I know AA and his TBJ Scout Army are working around the clock.

    It’s just frustrating as fuck when we anticipated a big offseason and are then told “nah, free agents aren’t our style” and “maybe the best time to trade is at the deadline”.

    But then again, I am unfamiliar with the Way of the Ninja.

    Stoked for my new cap to arrive in the mail though.  So there’s that.

  27. player a – 2011 FA closer who sported a .933 whip, who cost a first round pick, 5 years and 60 million.

    player b – 2011 FA closer who had a .914 whip if you take away one off month of july (more like one bad week). who won’t cost a pick, and likely won’t command more than 2 years and 16 million.

    player a is of course mike wilner’s favourite pig fucker jonathan papelbon.

    player b is Fransico Cordero.

  28. Beeston’s spent a lot of his famously fake dollars this year. He’s having a good off-season by his standards. When will Anthopolous have the pull to put him quietly to pasture? It’s pretty much fucking inexcusable that the Jays don’t sign Fielder at this point, with how the CBA has torched the draft.

  29. Yes, let’s only base a closer on WHIP. That would be smart. Let’s ignore Cordero’s whopping 5.4 K/9 and 4.00+ FIP. Or Papelbon’s 12.17 K/9 and 1.53 FIP. The worst part is you actually had to remove/cherry-pick a week from Cordero just to make your awful point.

  30. There you have it, the Jays could be contenders next year or possibly 10 years from now as we will have to wait until everything clicks at the same time before this team takes any risks. 

    I think the one problem with this  line of thinking is that if you add pieces after everything clicks you may have missed your opportunity.

    I agree with Ack, this $120 million payroll may be fictitious.  As Bob McCowan would say “I’m from Missouri and you need to show me”. 

    Or as my buddy Chad would say:

    “Don’t piss in my face and tell me it’s raining”

  31. As I was saying to you the other day it’s nothing more than corporate bs. At the end of the day they have targets they have to meet same as any other Rogers division. You’re totally correct in the fact they have to money to do it but obviously the will to spend it is not. Classic corporate ownership. Don’t get me wrong I have no problems with the plan AA has in general but like you I believe Fielder is a rare opportunity because of his age and the fact that the Yankees and Sox don’t exactly need a player like him for once.

  32. The other thing that bothers me is the fact that signing a guy like Fielder would have a ripple effect on all of the young players through the lineup. All of a sudden Rasmus, Lawrie, Aaron Cibia, Escobar etc don’t have to be so perfect to get to contention. What value is placed on having your young players experience playing with winners instead of losing games because they have Juan Rivera batting after Jose Bautista? Whats wrong with signing a guy and not winning in that exact season? I’m sure it would make life a little easier on the pitching staff as it tries to “emerge” as a contender to have some A grade bats to rely on – so that the Jays could win the ugly games that get to 13-12 or whatever.

    Wouldn’t Fielder still be valuable in year 2 of his contract if the Jays are that much closer in 2013? The list of 2013 1B is barren. What happens if we’re magically in striking distance, but nobody wants to trade and our best option is to sign a 51 year old Jason Giambi?

  33. Player A – 2.70 fip in last 3 seasons, 12.17 k/9 last season, lost no velocity

    Player B – 3.68 fip in last 3 seasons, 5.43 k/9 last season, lost 1.5 mph on his fb last season

    Fuck Cordero.

  34. Indeed. The thing that makes me laugh about the risks AA quotes is that when the time comes and there’s no Fielder type players available are they going to do what every other team does and overspend on the next best thing because that’s all that’s available? How’s that work out when it comes to getting value?

  35. Here’s something else worth considering: Wells was supposed to make, what? 23 Million next year? That’s 9 million more than you’re paying Jose Bautista next year, and the year after, etc. Front-load a deal with Prince while payroll is low, say 30 million per year, and then his last 2 years or so, you step him down to 10-12 million per. That certainly lessens the blow, and, at the same time, if you get 5 WAR valued around $5million each on the open market…it’s an over-pay, but towards the end, you create the potential for surplus, where you effectively turn your current payroll flexibility into future payroll felxibility.

    Last year the Jays’ payroll was $70 million even after paying part of Well, and paying for Teahen, etc. Next year they’re coming in even LOWER even after arb cases are settled. I say: Sign FIELDER!

  36. Why were you anticipating a big offseason? Everything this front office has said up until this point has been there will be no big offseason acquisitions. Not going to happen. Now, if you disagree with that, that’s fine, I am onboard with that. But don’t make it seem like they somehow changed their stance for this offseason

  37. You definitely have a point here – we may not need to see a PERFECT lineup before we deem them competitors, but in this division, you need pretty damn close to perfect. Don’t discount what the requirements are in the AL East just because teams in the NLW, NLC and ALW have surprised people. The addition of a wild card spot and (fingers crossed) the balanced schedule may go a long way to reducing the expectations in this division but until then, the team simply needs better players than they would in other divisions in order to make the playoffs. This is old news.

  38. Totally stupid if you ask me. 6 year deals don’t always not work. What about Pujol’s last 7 year deal worth 111 million. Did that work out??? Ummmm…yes!  What about the Manny deal with Boston….he performed just fine and they won 2 World Series. I’m sure the Ryan Braun deal will be just fine with Milwaukee. CC Sabathia is entering year 5 of his deal….that has been good so far. The list goes on and on…….

    We have one bad contract in Vernon Wells and now apparently we can’t make a 6 year deal even if it helped our team make it to the post season.  Absolute Bullshit!!

  39. *high five*
    this team is jeopardizing my long-term fandom by behaving in a way that does not lend itself to irrational and risky spending. i am serious about that. part of that is because, i – like most internet nerds that follow teams too closely – understand enough to know that it’s silly to expect them to behave irrationally.

    i can also make demands that are contradictory (as the ownership surely does) like wanting them to sign fielder, and darvish and have that not translate into higher ticket prices…but hey, they’ve cut payroll the since AA took over, beer is still ridiculous at a game, sportsnet1: ’nuff said, etc….the team on the field has been pretty boring with the exception of the fact that they fluked into bautista becoming the most feared hitter in baseball.
    anyway – the future looks…pretty similar. signing fielder would signal that the jays are a serious team, and not just a team managed prudently to maximize ROI.

  40. Not to mention it would help the atmosphere in spring training, legitimatly having a chance at the post season vs If everything goes well we could finish ahead of 2 teams in our division.

  41. You´re right about that. They´ve been beating that drum for some time. Makes ya wonder, though, why someone like Morosi (Fox Sports) would write that big Fielder story from yesterday or the day before ??

  42. I love this sign Darvish and Fielder and the Jays are a World Series contender talk. Signing those two only make the Jays contenders and JPA, Rasmus and Snider all take steps forward. If any of them fail the Jays are left hoping Gose or D’Arnaud can step up quicker than anticipate or they’re left with gaping holes. And if you think there’s pressure to compete while Bautista’s at the top of his game, think of the pressure there would be with Bautista at the top of his game and huge contracts to Fielder and Darvish. That’s not to mention that Fielder and Darvish would be committing what, $250 million to two players in one offseason.
    AA has done a great job building the organization up, but it doesn’t take any time at all to send it into a downward tailspin. I for one am really excited to see what the young guys can do this year. If the majority of them take steps forward then I could see the Jays playing meaningful games in September. If some fall back, then we start looking at the next crop of minor leaguers and hope they can fill some of the holes. The great thing about the org now is that the current core doesn’t have to succeed, there’s potential core players coming up in the future.

  43. I totally agree. And Fielder on his own probably doesn’t put us over the top. But he does improve the club substantially. My only point is that there is no reason why our young talent should have to develop in isolation. By the time Rasmus et al are ready to go – Fielder will still be here raking.

    What AA has proposed (and he could be very well BSing to get the media off of his back) is like saying you’re going to wait until you’ve identified all of the pieces of a puzzle before you’re going to put any of them together.

  44. Um so Darvish is going to be awesome like Dice K?

  45. But what is the problem with having Fielder or Darvish and not getting the best out of Rasmus? You still have Fielder or Darvish. YOu still have them again for another shot in 2013 and beyond.

    You’re in no worse position if it doesn’t work out perfectly.

    We can’t seriously be taking the Adam Dunn swing for the fences or not at all approach?

  46. I fucking love how AA says maybe in June if everything works out we could consider adding a big name Free Agent next year. Great. Once Fielder has been signed he would consider it.  I’ve supported everything he’s done so far…and I get where he thinks the team is going…but Bautista is not getting any younger and the Free Agent market is bare after this year for big power hitters. It would be dumb not to strike now…especially considering interest in Fielder is actually pretty low since most of the big spenders don’t need a 1B right now (Boston, NY, Philly). Cubs and Brewers are probably his most serious suitors right now.

  47. I think the hope is that some of the Jays young pieces take a step forward. They want Bautista to stay the same. They want Lind to hit like he did in the first half. They want Lawrie to keep doing what he did. They want Snider to figure things out, and they want Morrow to pitch to his potential, and Rasmus to hit to his. If those things happen, they’re a contender. If those things don’t happen, then they aren’t. They just try to keep adding pieces.

  48. You’re probably right…but that could mean another 2 or 3 years then before the Jays plan on adding anything. Meanwhile…the younger players will need to be resigned…Bautista is 35 and we still haven’t added a big bat like Fielder.

    Apparently they have very little confidence in the team we fielded last year and the youth already in the majors.

  49. I agree.

    There is enough evidence to show that signing SUPERSTAR free-agents is usually worth the risk. Signing less than superstar caliber free agents is where it starts to get dicey (see Jayson Werth). Fielder is surely a superstar and worth gambling on, I think they’re making too much of his ‘body type’ and the actual contract he’ll end up being signed to. 

  50. The two are not close. If you don’t know how much better Darvish is, you don’t deserve to write their names in a post.

  51. I’m still going to got o the games because I like baseball but the blue jays will finish 4th. Not saying they should sign feilder but who the hell do they expect to be on the free agent market in two years that will push them tot he playoff’s.
     They dont have to spend this year but sooner or later they will have to, rasmus, lawrie, Jp, Alvarez will be cheap for those two years, with a couplke new players this payroll will be around 80 million in two years.
     That’s fine if Beeston hadn’t said they couold spend 120 million when are they spending 120 million when jose bautista is 35 not as talented because of nagging injuries and age. They will probably miss there window if they dont at least try to find a number two pitcher, and a bat to protect bautista, I dont care who the fuck it is protecting him but when.

     No prospect we have projects to be a number 4 hitter. Number 4 hitters are expensive on every fucking team, so we will end of paying big bucks and 4 good prospects when we could just sign one.
     Why is Rogers the only team in the bottom 10 in payroll that isnt on revenue sharing oh right because it’s the 4th largest market. If I was a player’s agent I would wonder why other teams that dont require revenue sharing are spending money, other billionaire owners. Washington is spending money, Werth was a bad sigining but why would Feilder or trading for a feilder type and pitcher two things we need be stupid it still fits with the timeline he is given. As a player agent I would be wondering why does the richest team in the mlb spending the 5th smallest amount on payroll. I think we have this perception that AA prospects are all going to succed and that in three years when this team appartenly is ready even know Bautista wil be 34 escobar will 32, , Romero will be 29 they will all be healthy or still contributing at an elite level.
     
    I’m saying spend money for the wholes that we do not have 2 starter 4 hitter, second base men and closer do not all have to be pricey but feilder is probably the 6 or 7 best player in the mlb.
     Why do we belive that Boston or New York is going to be gone in three years they will still be there, Tampabay will still be there with younger maybe even better then now talent. We dont have to spend like the Yankees’ or Redsox but when they say they will and theres peices out there that fit with there plan young who will be there in those three years why are we not spending not even 70 million not even close to 120 so what the hell will happen in three years when they spend 120 who’s going to be that huge signing or expensive great player they get in trade. Salarys are just getting higher Votto or this number two starter will not be cheap they will want more then the next guy. There’s number two starters that are going to want to top  Lackey, Burnett money. Votto will want more then Fielder, Rasmus if he has one good year will want more than   Bj Upton who’s not fucking cheap or Denard Span.  He has a case for more even though right now he’s not as good becuase he has more power potenial. Morrow if he comes together and becomes a number two will want Cj Wilson money. Morrow who will have one good year and Rasmus who had one good year in the AL you would rather spend money on them then those who have track record with 5 or 4 years that have been good. There”s no home discounts in baseball look at Pujous who’s apparently the most loyal player in the game. At Lest we know who Fielder is who the fuck is YU Darvish we would rather spend 120 million on a guy that has never ptiched an inning in the mlb.    

  52. Holes

  53. Especially when he’ll probably sign for 6 yrs 132 mil approx.

    I mean come on…really…after trading away 4 top prospects for a big hitter of that caliber…how much would an extension run the team. Approximately the same???

    I don’t know why the Jays think they can get away with team friendly deals for the indefinite future. Just because guys like Lind and Hill signed team friendly short deals with options…does not mean that if they trade for someone like say….Adrian Gonzalez (as boston did)…that he is going to sign a measly 4 year deal.  That type of player will want to get paid. And will want 6 years at least!!! No doubt about it! If AGon, Texeira, Tulo, Braun, Kemp, Holliday, Lee, Sabathia, etc. can get 6 or 7 year deals on the open market…why does AA and Beeston think they could trade for someone…say Votto next year….and that he would agree to a 3 or 4 year extension? Even 5 is ludicrous when he could 7 or 8 on the open market.

    The Jays management…although very smart when it comes to amateur drafting….really seem to be a little clueless when it comes to the free agent market right now. Unless they are just denying it so they don’t drive up the price and then they sign Fielder anyway…which likely won’t happen.

    I can’t wait until they trade 4 of our top prospects away…and I’m talking Gose, McGuire, Hutchinson, Molina for someone like Votto or similar caliber player…and they tell them to go fuck themselves when they offer them 5 yrs at 100 mil.  I know if I was that player with no loyalty to the team I was just traded to…I’m not going to give them a team friendly deal with AA and Beeston like to toss out to our current players.  Good luck with that one!

  54. How is it inexcusable? We’re not ready. You want to sign a 120 million dollar FA to a 6 year contract with an incomplete core and numerous question marks up and down the roster? Dumb and short-sighted. Wannabe Yankee dumbness. 

  55. Don’t get me wrong, I would LOVE the Jays to sign Prince Fielder. I do, however, understand their reluctance.   Basically, I think the only way he’d even consider signing here is if they paid him a LOT more than a perennial contender would. I understand their reluctance to do that. Besides, I think they need a top of the rotation starter more than a middle of the order bat in the sense that they have several guys in the line up who have middle of the order “potential” (Lawrie, Snider, Rasmus, Lind). They don’t have very many arms with#1 or #2 potential that are ready for the big leagues. (Most scouting reports I’ve read don’t put Alvarez, Molina, Hutchinson or McGuire in that category. So the only one is Drabek. And it looks like it could be awhile before or if he ever reaches that “upside”.) Personally, I’d be in heavy on Matt Garza. He’s already a #2 or 3, and with his stuff (and his record against us), I think he might have another level that he could get to. But that’s just me.

  56. That’s what I don’t get about this organization…..it never seems to take any calculated risks on potential superstars…..not saying he would agree but why not offer Fielder a little larger annual amount for 5 years plus a vesting option for years 6 and 7 (where he could be a productive DH if he starts to decline). I don’t understand the risk in that…it shows the rest of the division you are serious about contending…shows your young core your serious and that you believe in the talent they already have to contend…..and for people who compare Prince to Cecil there are absolutely no comparisons Cecil played during a time (in all sports) where physical fitness wasn’t at the top of players priorities (and im not saying they weren’t fit but conditioning and everything is much more prevalent now) and he just has a big body type and isn’t necessarily out of shape…….there is a much stronger and more positive message signing a player like fielder than there is not and hoping you can pry the right piece from a team at the deadline

  57. All I’m saying is that Darvish has never pitched in the big leagues and that the recent record of high profile Japanese imports to MLB has been less than stellar. Personally, if I’m spending $100 million on an arm, I’d want a bit more certainty in that arms success. But I’m not a scout. So…..

  58. Except that, you know, the core could be ready in 1-2 years, in which you still have that free agent in your line-up producing. “Wannabe Yankee dumbness” is having your roster half-made of free agents. Fuck forbid if the Jays sign 1 in your eyes. If the Blue Jays continue to be the Rays for the next 3 years, it’s a pretty telling sign that Rogers still doesn’t give a shit.

    Also, in 2 years, I hardly see Bautista producing the way he is now.

  59. You´re right. I´d be HARD on Garza.  

    Forget Fielder. Sign KJ. Get a reasonable closer. A starter. Call it a day, see what the kids can do in 2012, and make this your last expendable year.  If you´re AA you can´t keep fucking the dog forever….

  60. When will we be ready Wayne? 2…3 years from now…when Bautista starts to hit the decline. We’ll never be ready if we plan on waiting for every single one of our prospects to mature and fill all of the pieces on this team. What’s the harm of signing one 22 mil/yr player??? who is a superstar mind you? That would bring our current payroll to approximately 90 million. Wow….how big is that…oh wait…not very big considering the size of our market and how rich the owners are.

    It’s too bad our team is owned by a bunch of Rich bastards in Rogers who don’t even follow the game of baseball.  They probably don’t even know who Prince Fielder is.

    It’s a shame that the Jays aren’t somehow owned by an American Corporation which was run by actual baseball fans. Then maybe they could see the value in signing someone of Fielder’s potential and the added revenue he would bring in each year. Maybe that kind of ownership would get AA on the phone and let him know the check book was ready if really wanted to make a move.

    *This post is not a knock at Canada…just Rogers and the fact that I’ve heard they don’t know a thing about baseball and that they aren’t fans in the least bit. AA and Beeston have to give them the rundown of what’s going on since no one in that company pays attention or even cares to.

  61. You know. Everyone here is talking as if Prince Fielder would definitely want to play here. What if he doesn’t? 

  62. We are just going on the assumption that all teams are weighted equally in his mind…..the debate is more why isn’t management ready to pony up and make a statement to the rest of the AL east……its not about whether Fielder would or would not play here, if it’s a case of the former rather than latter than management should be saying “we know we are ready to compete and will look for a piece to help put us over the edge.” instead of constantly denying the upside to a superstar free agent signing

  63. “That’s what I don’t get about this organization…..it never seems to take any calculated risks on potential superstars”

    You are aware that they signed Bautista to a long term deal just last year, right?

  64. Good point…except that he doesn’t have very many suitors right now because most teams don’t need an expensive first baseman. Also…I don’t think it would be an impossible sell considering the Jays have a very promising future ahead of them. If the goal is to possibly win a championship…Fielder could sign with teams with way worse chances than the Jays. Right now the Brewers aren’t going to pay enough. The cubs are not near contention. The Mariners are also not near contention. That leave potentially Miami…but they are further behind than Toronto in rebuilding. At least their owners are willing to spend a little.

    Based on the lack of interest…I think the Jays could be one of his best options. I also read where he lives in Florida…and not too far from the Jays spring complex.

  65. First, it’s not just Rasmus, there are a lot of question marks. Second, if those guys fail would it be acceptable to give Gose or D’Arnaud the shot with the expectation that it’d take a couple of years for them to adjust to the bigs. Making a big signing puts the team on the clock as far as competing. I don’t think they’re set at enough positions to put themselves on the clock.

  66. Yeah they did. And now that Bautista has proven that he is probably worth around 20-23 million on the market…but is only making 14….I think AA is afraid of signing anyone to a larger contract than Bautista. Too bad…it would be nice if they signed another superstar for superstar money.

    Because he won’t top Bautista’s smallish yearly contract…we’re probably destined for mediocrity for the next 5 years.

  67. I keep hearing this but how is giving a 6 or 7-year contract to a 27-year-old considered “short-sighted”? It’s not like they’d be signing Prince to ONLY play in 2012 and if they miss the playoffs that year then the contract is a bust…

  68. exactly! or even better…that the team will now somehow completely suck because we didn’t win in 2012 and now our chances of winning are gone forever.

  69. Ya I realize they signed Bautista but I wouldn’t call his deal risky sure its what a 5 year deal @ 12.8/year? but it is at a pretty reasonable price for a player of Bautistas skillset….the risk i’m talking about is one that means putting a very large sum of money into a free agent that could help push them over the edge and I don’t mean throw money at every big FA that comes along because I don’t want to see them turn into the Yankees/Red Sox….you know what I mean….the team has taken risks in picking up Rasmus and Escobar also but its not the type of risk I’m talking about

  70. Just sitting back and making minor moves doesn’t scream to your division rivals that you are ready to compete….and what does it say to our core of young players….”look we think your good and everything….we just don’t think your good enough to compete therefore we don’t think it’s a good idea to get a guy to help put us over the edge.” I mean I’m sure they don’t take it that way but to me as a fan at least it just seems like the type of message it’s sending…..they want to see if the core is “good enough” at the deadline to make an effort to make the team better…..wrong message in my opinion

  71. Why did the Blue Jays sign Bautista then? They certainly weren’t ready to contend yet – and there was certainly no guarantee that he would put up even SIMILAR numbers to the ones he put up the year prior. And yet, they locked him up because they were able to see his value  further into the future – and with players other than those already on the roster.

    What if the Jays’ pitching lights it up this year and they fall short only to find out if they had a little more run support they’d be a legit contender? Wouldn’t the decision not to sign a bonafide all-star slugger seem equally as wasteful?

  72. Absolutely agree with you ErnieWhitt I think there has to be a good mix of long term goals and short term goals…..and wouldn’t Fielder be both with a 6 year contract (ending at a younger age then Bautistas 5 year)

  73. Those are good points too, however, there are (unfortunately) a whole lot of American ball players who don’t want to play in Canada. I mean, have you ever met any Americans? They aren’t exactly known for their open mindedness towards other countries. Besides, the Jays have never contended for anything in the last twenty years (almost) and they will always have to compete against the Yankees and Red Sox. All of that combined could make Toronto a tough sell for a lot of these guys. I mean, I don’t know Prince Fielder (obviously), nor what his thought process might be. But I would hazard a guess that no one else commenting here does either. There is a very good chance that even if the Jays were to make a competitive (or better) offer for his services, he still wouldn’t sign here. And also: do we want the Jays to make a very public pursuit of these guys just so that we (as Jays fans) think that they are doing so? Beeston has done the free agent wine and dine thing before. And he thinks that the big fish won’t sign here. You can believe him at his word. Or you can not. I happen to. So if they aren’t actually going to sign here, those public pursuits just drive up the price for the people who will actually sign him which (ultimately) hurts all of baseball (including the Jays) in future negotiations. No?

  74. In what way does it put them on a clock? What is the danger of being “on the clock”? You say that as though its a given that doing so is a bad thing? How are they “not” on the clock right now?

    If the young players fail how does that change the benefit of having an All-Star bat in the lineup? Even if ALL of the young players fail – does that make the Jose Bautista signing a bad one?

    If the Jays sign Fielder and they don’t win the World Series – what is exactly the problem? Couldn’t they try again next year, and the year after that? Wouldn’t they be in exactly the same position as they were going to be anyways – only with an incredible hitting 1B?

  75. Money talks. The only Canadian team that really struggles with finding warm American bodies willing to come here is the Raptors, but that’s mostly a product of being terrible. Jays had no problems convincing free agents in the past.

  76. This is total bullshit.  AA says you have a better chance of helping your team at the trade deadline.  That would mean trading away assets instead of just spending money during FA.  You have to wonder when the fuck Rogers is planning on spending any money.  Just wait until the trade deadline when AA reports that he is always looking to improve the club if it makes sense.

  77. Maybe. But how much MORE will the Jays have to pay him than a contending, American team? I don’t know the answer to that question. Maybe they don’t. Maybe he loves Canada, and would play here for less. I honestly believe, in my heart of hearts, that the Jays WILL make him an offer. They will evaluate what THEY think he’s worth, in that system of theirs, and submit it to Boras. (They might also do the same thing with Pujols.) If he takes it, he’s a Jay. If he doesn’t he’s not. But I don’t think they’ll get into a public bidding war for anyone. That’s just not the way they do things.

  78. They have assets to spend! Most prospects won’t turn into big leaguers. The point of getting so many of them is (partly) to trade them (while they’ve still got that new car shine!). The Blue Jays have enough assets to trade for anyone who is made available. All they need is for those guys to be made available. That takes time…..

  79. Man is everyone here 14? Think back to when Gillick took over and his method… Seems familiar no? These things take time. I don’t think I would’ve changed how he changed the club, back to back world series and enough playoff appearances satisfy me. We are trying to build a sustainable play-off franchise. All of you fans seem so short-sighted.

  80. If AA knows he needs to protect Jose that in the second half of the season  he was old Jose becuase Adam Lind wasnt scary at all, and knew that a younger more powerfull hitter like Fielder hit’s above 300 was a free agent and his owners were billionaires he would still be raking in two years why not were not the fucking Pirates I have no problem at finding a cheap fucker who can provide protection to Jose but where are they look at there salarys they dont exist.

     In 2013 offseason this is going to be the player AA needs to make the playoff’s only he was signed two years ago by the cubs. Votto resigned with the Reds and Hamilton fucked his back there will be no player in 2013 that will sign and carry a 34 year old corpse and a young team that needs protection to the playoff’s or a number two starter there’s no number two I would ever sign in free agencey they want way to much for there talent level Lackey money, but Fielder right now is a 22 million dollar player. He would provide Wins he would bring attention to the blue jays from america, he would seel jersey,merchandise,  ad revenue, sponsor deals, attendance. He would bring money to this team in his first four years for sure and the last two will still almost bring back 22 million just in his brand.

    We trade for a number two who hasnt hit arbitration yet in the next two years they exist, Prince would still be here, a protecter for Jose isnt cheap.

    Granderson had Texeria and Cano, Arod
    Hamilton has Cruz and Beltre, KInsler
    A gon has Ortiz, Pedroia, Jacoby
    Tampa bay has balls deep pitching
    We could in two years have balls deep pitching but Longoria wa 25, Jose would be 34
    Lawrie could be a stud but who else no one else is a sure thing he’s the surest thing we have and even that’s not a sure thing. Fielder is a sure thing. He fit’s witht he timeline and we have the money why not. Fielder would bring more attention to this team draw money actually would make them money because with fielder americans would know who the fuck Rogers was isnt that the only reason they even bought the fucking team. Were not the Indiansor Royals or the fucking Pirates we have billionaire owneres Fielder wouldnt even put them over 100 million leaving them with 30 million to spend on other areas brining them to contention with a young team and there projected payroll for 2013 of 120 million Beeston’s words.
        

  81. If you read between the lines…. AA is saying that some of his best deals can be done when other team is desperate…. This year will likely be hist last year to make a trade deadline deal that is a big plus for the Jays (ie. Rasmus)

    I think it’s just a “plug holes, let the kids play, and make a few good scores at the trade deadline” year. 

    The following year, the Jays will be the ones who are desperate for players to put them in contention, and likely for the foreseeable future.

    I’m fine with sitting out on Fielder, but with the new CBA, free agents have become a more important piece of the moving target…. it’s nice to keep all the prospects you can without trading them away for a Fielder equivalent in my view.

  82. That big time player will not be any more avaliable in 2013 then it is now reach out and grab it.
    As for Prince not wanting to sign he might not have a choice with the brewers offering no more then 120 million and the cubs and washington. Fielder is not a bad contract sign him the cubs maybe will not with Zambrano, Soriano, Dempster, are not to meniton it wasnt to long ago they bought the team for 650 million or maybe even more so they might not have the money right now we do

    Fielder isnt Well’s or Crawford he’s had great years since he was 20 years old, he;s going to the hall of fame, belive it or not he’s an athlete might not look like one but is. If adam Lind can play a good first base with a bad back and being out of shape why cant a guy who eat’s no meat actually works out filed. He could bring us 8 WAR right now it’s his defense bringing him down but the Brewers also have shit infielders throwing him the ball. Maybe with Escabor and Lawrie who looked pretty good at third and insert name here for second base will actually throw the ball right at his fucking glove making him a better Fielder. Benetcourt and Casey 3B were probably responisable for half his errors.

  83. How is getting Fielder short sighted? Having a budding superstar for the next 6 years PLUS having prospects……that seems long term for me…..use the prospects to get a #2 starter or a closer……while bringing in the big bat via FA…..not making that signing and only doing trades seems short sighted to me

  84. I’m American. And I have nothing against Canada. Except for the cheap skates from Montreal who leave 5% tips at restaurants and pretend like they don’t that 18-20% is standard in the U.S.  But that’s another story.

    As for Fielder maybe not wanting to sign in Toronto…you’re right…we really don’t know. Beeston did say in the Toronto Sun I believe..or was it to Sportsnet…that baseball players do love Toronto as a city. He said they might not like customs, the color of the money, or filling out 2 tax forms…but they do love the city. And that the team would have to show players they are committed to winning. I guess his idea of showing commitment is sitting back and waiting for the team to develop and not handing out actual contracts. I would think that if the Jays signed a FA slugger like Prince and added say C.J. Wilson…then maybe other players would finally say…wow…those Blue Jays sure do want to compete against the yanks and sox. Right now though…the only thing the Jays are doing is showing both the players…and unfortunately the fans….that they are willing to wait 3 more years until the tortoise finally overtakes the hare. (maybe!)

  85. This isn’t the 80s anymore kurtits. The economy has grown a ton since then. 3 yr contracts are the things of the past. even 5 year deals are disappearing unless you’re a yunel escobar type player. Top players want 6 or 7 year deals…period. We can’t run the organization exactly like Gillick once did. We need to adapt with the times.

  86. All you guys are assuming the best of all possible scenarios when you suggest we should go ahead and spend the big bucks, when really all we are at the big league level is a somewhat better version of Baltimore two seasons ago.  They went out and spent, and look where that got them?

    Here, let’s make some lower-25th percentile projections.

    Jays sign Fielder.  Prince Fielder experiences the usual letdown year that most players suffer after signing a big contract and posts a .261/.402/.471/.871 season, which while not terrible are certainly not numbers you’d expect from the contract you gave him.  They’re also numbers in line with what Fielder has posted every even-year season of his career.

    Jays sign Darvish.  He does NOT make the transition well and starts feeling homesick after a month.  After some initial struggles Jays try to mess with his delivery, which only screws him up even more.  He finishes with a 4.40 ERA and a 1.32 WHIP, the numbers Dice-K posted in his first year.  Not bad numbers, but definitely not $20 million per year numbers.  If those numbers look familiar, that’s because they’re similar to Brandon Morrow’s career numbers.

    Speaking of Morrow, he once again fails to translate a very good FIP into a very good ERA, and posts a 4.72 ERA to go with a 1.28 WHIP, good for a career-high 12 win season.

    Romero, meanwhile, our staff ace, takes a step back and posts an ERA that equals his FIP from this past season: 4.20.  This drops him back down to the same 12-win territory Morrow is in.

    Alvarez goes through a sophomore slump, much like Halladay did, and gets sent back to the minors after putting up a 7+ ERA through May and no wins.  McGowan is unable to put it together and is released after putting up similar numbers.

    Bautista pulls a hamstring in spring training and in his first game back he breaks his arm running into the outfield fence for a fly ball.  Jays only get Bautista for 38 games.

    Lind continues to not figure things out and tank his trade value.  Lawrie follows up his Eric Hinske-like debut with an Eric Hinske-like career.  Yunel and Rasmus, without Bautista around to mentor them, start going wild and the fans turn on them, causing their performance to get even worse.

    Jays finish 72-90, barely beating out the Orioles for fourth place.  Because of the spending spree the Jays embarked on in the off-season, the fans expectations were high; thus the Jays not meeting them led to significant fan discontent.  A few fans even brought very, very early “Fire AA” signs out to the Rogers Centre.

    Now the point of this post isn’t that the Jays are a 72 win team.  The point is that most teams experience “issues” during the season.  Contenders are either teams in which everything breaks for them, or have the depth to withstand “issues.”  The Jays do not have this depth yet.  Signing Fielder and Darvish would not change this.

    Eventually our farm is going to provide that depth, but the farm is not yet ready.  They ought to be ready by 2013.

  87. Well obviously it’s a risk, so is signing Prince Fielder to a similarly lucrative deal. Fact is, Darvish has put some staggering numbers in NPB, Dice K’s numbers were good but not close to Yu’s. Some argue that Dice K had already began declining before he made his transition to the MLB plus you add in his insane history of pitching far too many innings as a teenager and you have the result soaking up millions of dollars in Boston. Yu Darvish has been managed much more responsibly, is younger and more talented than Dice K, hands down.

  88. Word!

    It is a common thing that happens every off-season…. if this, this, and this happen, then we are in contention! Then the wheels fall off, and well…. you’ve seen.

    I just don’t like the idea of giving up prospects via trade, when cash as an asset holds less value than prospects does in the new CBA… therefore Fielder might be a nice gamble, and sell low expectations.

  89. Pat Gillick signed a shit load of free agent that year not really but a couple and traded for good plaeyers he did both. AA could do the same thing this yera then in 2013 were in the playoff’s right now the projection is for 2014 or later when our propsects all arrive are we so sure Jose will be good at 35 or older. We could miss our window the fucking yankees and redsox arent going to vanish they will still be here we dont have to spend like the yankees or redsox but 90 million hell 100 million is not even in the top ten payroll’s. You know how every one says wait we have prospects there coming be patient true but do the yankees, Rays, Baltimore and the Redsox not have prospects

    Yankees,Rays and Redsox always are in the top 15 farm systems there not going anywhere.
     Gillick thing could work in 2013 offseason two years from now if no one takes a step back in development and theres good players to sign and trade for what if theres not what if every good hell decent player is locked up because salarys keep getting higher no one wants to trade good players because there not making top dollar. Were stuck with a worse team then we have now.
     We will always finish no higher then third if we cant even bring our payroll to 90 million with two elite bats and an ace. Not straying away from the timeline he’s younger then our good players.
    In 2013 he will still be here.   

  90. “I realize they signed Bautista but I wouldn’t call his deal risky”

    That’s because you just watched him improve over his 2010 season. At the time, his contract was considered unnecessarily risky, and it was accepted as a pretty big gamble. AA and surely some of his staff believed in him, but a great many insiders around the league felt it was a huge risk to take. His career path is almost unprecedented, the guys you would have compared him to (Luis Gonzalez for example) are NOT typically the guys you would have locked up for 6 years after one extreme outlying season. It’s looking now like the deal will pay off (thanks to the luxury of hindsight, being able to look back one year after) but to ignore the risk that was the Jose Bautista extension is simply being misinformed.

  91. “cheap skates from Montreal who leave 5% tips at restaurants ”

    Have you considered that said Montrealers may have been slightly disappointed with American cuisine?

  92. Fair enough you make a good point there I’m just saying it would be nice to see the team take more risks that could push them over the line between contending and not contending….admittedly now the Bautista comparison was misinformed but my point still stands….risks need to be taken in order to become a perennial competitor IMO….not only is it making the on field product better it’s also sending a loud and clear message to the team and other organizations that this team is here to contend

  93. Rogers can afford fixing the team if Fielder has a bad years they would have Jose and Wells right now they did not know they were going to move that contract  . They can afford it Baltimore couldnt that’s the difference were talking about 100-120 payroll not 178 million like yankees and Red Sox.
    If everyone has a bad year we could not make the playoff’s but signing Fielder does not change the timeline at all he’s wouldnt be blocking any prospect.
     Prince might not bring us to the playoff’s ever but we have a better chance with then without.
    The people saying it’s risky, it’s risky to wait for prospects three years from now that might take huge steps back I’ll take every year of fielder even in a down year then Adam Lind.
     Billionaire owners can do bot spend in the now Fielder for 22 million and in the later while developing there farm system and calling up porspects why cant we do both.
     Payroll used to be over 100 million every year just a couple of years ago, they just didnt spend it verywell. Our dollar is stronger and 90 million is not the yankees or Red sox model.

  94. Yeah…because all players who sign big years have huge let downs right…like Werth and Crawford??

    What about Adrian Gonzalez after he signed his 7 yr 154 mil deal?  He only hit .338 with 27 hrs and 117 rbi.  Terrible numbers.

    Or Cliff Lee? 17-8 2.40 era with 7 shut outs. Terrible again.

    Jose Bautista??? 43 hrs .303 average

    Tulowitski…30 hrs .302 average

    All of these players put up huge numbers following their signing huge contracts. And that’s just a few off the top of my head.

    No reason to think Fielder wouldn’t put up huge numbers

  95. That is some confusing logic to follow – Don’t add depth to your team because you don’t have depth.

    You’re saying we ought to have depth by next season – and yet it would be a waste to PLAN for that season by acquiring high end talent. If we’re going to be set by next year – what possible reason is there NOT to get ready?

    Your laundry list of terrible predictions could happen to any team in any year. Are you actually suggesting the Jays don’t make any moves so that none of them go wrong? Again, so what if the Jays don’t win in 2012. In 2013 (which you seem to think we’ll be ready for ) we’d still have a 28 year old all-star masher !

  96. That’s one possibility…another is they either don’t know any better or pretend they don’t. All I know is when they tipped me 6 bucks on a 134 dollar meal and shook my hand saying it was wonderful I felt like throwing the money back in their face.

  97. Here is a question to all of the people who want to let our prospects come up….what if a good chunk of our prospects have major regressions like Snider has…..at what point do you stop and say shit I wish we had that big impact player instead of rolling the dice on unproven players? Why not have the proven player AND keep developing the young players so you always have a new base of a young core available….use FA signings to upgrade at a position use trades of prospects to fill holes and needs such as SP and a closer…..long term and short term gains…..

  98. To add, Fielder is a lot more Lee/Bautista/Tulo/Gonzo than he is Werth/Crawford.

  99. I actually do support the signings of Fielder and Darvish.  I just don’t think those moves are going to make us “contenders.”  It would be nice to go to the playoffs next year, I just think the optimism is burning a tad bright, and when the optimism gets unrealistically high it’s usually followed by a massive, and unfair, crash.

    Also, the numbers I used for Fielder were his exact 2010 numbers.

    Anyways, while I do support the signings of Fielder and Darvish, I can also see the viewpoint that maybe that might not be such a good idea, and would understand if AA chose not to.  Is Fielder really the 1B we want on this team, or are we just settling for him because he’s the best available?

  100. Yes, you are right that risks need to be taken. But it’s naive to suggest that risks = perennial contender. The thing with risks is that sometimes they do not pan out – that’s not to say sports teams shouldn’t take them, but if there’s a way to minimize risk or to maximize potential return on a risk, then obviously that route will be more attractive to a management style such as Alex Anthopolous’. It’s rudimentary but we shouldn’t let ourselves lose hold of the simple fact that sports is a business, what other businesses do you know of that routinely take huge risks with huge stakes? AIG might be a good example…Lehmann Bros. another…I could continue but…

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