It’s funny. Jays fans, myself included, have kinda been falling all over themselves lately to argue about whether Rogers are doing right by the club given the TV revenue they generate, how much the Jays can spend, why they’re not spending it, and whether Alex Anthopoulos even wants to spend it. And we’re doing so at a time when the club hasn’t actually missed out on any of what fans have identified as their prime areas to spend it.

Sure, the Jays avoided the market for closers– after we heard enough times that they were in hard on guys like Heath Bell and Jonathan Papelbon that we were afraid they might actually sign a guy like that– by selling high on prospect Nestor Molina, who had been hyped a lot recently, but may be viewed by the club as someone who’d never even crack the big league rotation, thanks to the wealth of arms behind him and the occupied positions in front. But Prince Fielder hasn’t gone anywhere, and teams still have 24-hours to bid for Yu Darvish. The club has downplayed the possibility of going after them, but don’t you find that fans get selective to the worst degree about what front office babble they choose to and not to believe?

And it’s not like the Jays would come out and tell the world that they’ve got money burning a hole in their pocket, right? Not that I’d be inclined to place a bet on a hopeful, free-spending resolution to the Jays’ off-season at this point, but there’s actually not yet been much tangible reason to believe for certain that it won’t come true.

Richard Justice certainly believes that the Jays can spend big and will still be players for Prince Fielder, listing them as the frontrunners ahead of the Mariners and Cubs in a piece today at MLB.com. And while I can’t possibly believe that he’s doing anything other than guessing, he feels those are “the three logical candidates.”

And if this pipe dream ever actually does come to fruition, Jays fans better hope to hell that there’s wisdom in the pages of the book pictured above. Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com, who in his piece notes that the Jays seem “intrigued” despite their self-imposed rule against guaranteed deals of more than five years, takes a skim through the latest version of Scott Boras’ infamous books– this one lauding Fielder with Cooperstown-worthy projections and comparisons. At the very least, Boras’ handiwork may nudge a few more suitors into the race, and one of them might be the Jays, if they’re not there already.

So… there’s that.

Comments (148)

  1. 23 hours until we get Darvish!

    So pumped!

  2. Is that supposed to be Boras’ actually marketing material? If so, one would assume Boras would choose a cover shot that downplays Fielders body issues. If both of these are the case, and that picture is the slimmest Prince action shot out there – Mother of God.

  3. The “Jays MUST SIGN FIELDER” echo chamber is getting absurdly loud and it’s bound to dissapoint a shit load of Jays fans when he signs for 7/175 with the Cubs.

  4. The comparison of numbers you had with Wells’ previous seasons to Fielder’s previous seasons at the same age is kinda scary. Also, these contracts never work out. “Fans” just want to have some hype to get excited about the next season, because they figure this roster isn’t good enough to do anything next year. Sadly, they’re probably right given the competition.

    Or are they. The Yankees are a year older and look at who they relied on in their rotation last year. Granted, the RS and Rays are still there..

  5. Not true, while there’s certainly been failures, there’s been a number that have worked out.

  6. Only chance the Jays sign Fielder is if he’s willing to do 5 yrs. Even then I have my doubts rogers will pony up the necessary cash to get it done. I really hope they’ll make Fielder a 5yr offer atleast. If the annual salary is enough he’ll strongly consider it im sure. Maybe they could do 4 yrs and two player options. Another frustrating thing is they are wasting Bautista’s prime yrs

  7. Don’t open that Wells can of worms! Trust me.

  8. If he signs for 7/175 I think the vast majority of Jays fans will be OK with him going elsewhere.

    If his deal winds up being less in terms of years, then you’ll see more disappointed people, IMO.

  9. There is no more logical candidate for Fielder than the Jays, but we, of course, already knew that.  They have a huge hole in their lineup behind the best hitter in baseball, a starting 1B that can’t hit, an incredibly low payroll filled with  talented, cost-controllable players, and tons of money to spend. It all points to the Jays being involved in the bidding…it’s just a question of whether they’ll bid the most (and knowing Rogers’ methods, they won’t).

    I still hope that  the five-year thing was a smokescreen by Beeston.  It’s absurd to make it club policy not to sign any player for longer than five years.

  10. I have a very hard time believing that book will influence the Jays in any way.  They’ve done their own research.  If memory serves, in the Oliver Perez book he compared him to Sandy Koufax by cherry-picking stats.

  11. I would say that the Mariners have a bigger need for Fielder than the Jays. At least Lind has had a decent offensive season once. Justin Smoak looks like a bust to me.

  12. 2007 Wells and 2012 Fielder aren’t similar in any way beyond their ages and fWAR production (which they accumulated in completely different ways). In the case of projecting Fielder’s value going forward, what happened to Wells is not anything to concern yourself with.

  13. man youve pretty much been posting the same stuff for the past month, we kind of get it, we know how you feel. you realize none of us can influence whether or not fielder is signed by the jays, right?

  14. Here’s a list of the available 1st basemen for 2013. If Lind was a bust and there was no viable internal candidates, here’s who you get to chose from baring a trade of course.

    Jason Giambi (42)
    Eric Hinske (35)
    Aubrey Huff (36) – $10MM club option with a $2MM buyout
    Adam LaRoche (33) – $10MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout
    Carlos Lee (37)
    James Loney (29)
    Mike Napoli (31)
    Lyle Overbay (36)
    Ty Wigginton (35) – $4MM club option with a $500K buyout

    Not a lot to love there.

    That said both of the articles listed above were pretty interesting. I just wish that the authors would get their numbers correct when they do their research. Seattle looks like it`s on the hook for $95 million this coming year not the $59 million that`s quoted in the article. In addition there`s this:

    http://seattletimes.nwsource.c
    http://www.andrewdwashor.com/b

    http://www.baseball-reference….

    That doesn`t look like an owner who is prepared to take on a massive contract for a single player no matter how much his GM loves him.

  15. Good advice.  It’s a stretch of a comparison (to put it mildly), cherry-picked with no context.  And I’m pretty sure you realize it, Stoeten.

  16. I cant say its a bad thing theyre not willing to do to 7-10 yr contracts. How many of those end up well? Wells was an albatross 2 yrs into his 7 yr contract. In fact they used it as an excuse not to spend money. I dont want to hear any excuses from them not to spend if Fielder is signed. The most Id be willing to go for Fielder is 6yrs and preferably that yr is a player or team option

  17. Except the Mariners just came off a sub 70 win season. Adding Fielder won’t do anything in the short-term for that team, unlike Toronto. The Jays are a more desirable location because they are at least close to the playoffs (and playing in Toronto won’t completely sap a player’s power numbers like playing in Seattle will).

  18. Did you know Alex Anthopolous doesn’t even LIKE spending money?

  19. If we really want to draw parallels, how about using BR’s similar players by age?  At least that’s an honest way of finding comparable guys.  Here are Prince’s top 10 through age 27.  A pretty impressive group, not exactly full of guys who were chumps by age 33.

    Eddie Murray (912) *
    Juan Gonzalez (908)
    Jose Canseco (901)
    Mark Teixeira (892)
    Greg Luzinski (892)
    Darryl Strawberry (887)
    Kent Hrbek (885)
    Boog Powell (885)
    Jim Rice (884) *
    Orlando Cepeda (883) *

  20. following the jays to this level is a mental sickness…i am a sick man.

  21. Hah, just saw this on mlb.com through a link on twitter, and I come to DJF to note it and it’s already up. 

    Fast.  Fast fast fast…

  22. if that deal was on the table, id sign it before they could move it away

  23. The Jays adding Fielder, I highly doubt, would push them into the playoffs either. At least not for 2012. The rotation still has far too many holes.

    If the Mariners signed Fielder and traded James Paxton for another bat, with a rotation including Felix and Pineda? Yikes. Justin Smoak I’d imagine would have some value too, maybe netting them a #3 SP.

  24. Pretty much Napoli or bust…and I’m guessing Napoli will be locked up by the Rangers soon. 

  25. dont impose your definition of “worked out” on all of us.  some of us would willingly overpay for his fat years to get 4-5 of his dominant years and some exciting september baseball.  Fuck the WS. Let’s start with consistent exciting september baseball.  

  26. Now call AA on his cell and apologize for that remark.

  27. The Yankees and Red Sox had a rotation full of holes last year, too. In fact, they’ve had generally poor rotations for quite a while now. You’re downplaying what a great offense can do.

  28. Hey just pretend it’s following the Leafs in the depths of August and everyone will think you’re normal.

  29. They’d still be at best the 3rd best team in that division.  The Angels have a WAAAY better lineup AND a better rotation, and Texas lineup is just scary.

  30. Generally, it’s not the best idea, no. Extending that rule to everyone, though, can make you miss out on adding some great players.

  31. Absolutely agree with Fullmer_Fan…..the Phillies had the best rotation in baseball last year and look where it got them and the cards had a solid rotation but I wouldn’t call it amazing and look what they did with a good offence….and I realize they aren’t in a division nearly as hard as the Jays but the point still stands I think

  32. Perhaps the jays could offer Prince a 5 year contract with very lucrative club options in year 6 or 7. or a high buyout?

  33. Yep. Totally irrelevant, guys. Fullmer already decided he doesn’t like the way the comparison makes his conclusion look, so we’re just gonna go ahead and put more weight on the differences than the similarities. Can’t possibly compare two things that aren’t EXACTLY alike anyway, right? What could that possibly tell us?

  34. I agree. Fielder alone won’t get us to the playoffs. No sign. 

  35. I wouldn’t exactly say I’m downplaying what an offense can do. Rarely does an anemic rotation win you a WS. The 2009 Yankees team is the only one that comes to mind in recent history.

  36. It’s good to have different opinions. I wonder if bautista or Romero would speak up that they want the team to get better quicker. Farrell wants to compete.

  37. That Richard Justice article was hilarious. 

    “Fielder is a solid defensive player, a very good baserunner”.

    He has a -19.9 fielding value in the last 4 years and -26.3 base running value in the same period.

    If by “very good baserunner” he means worst baserunner in MLB (as per Fangraphs leaderboards) and by “solid defensive player” he means 4th worst defensive 1B in MLB then I guess that’s a fair description.

  38. None of us really have any idea how the Jays feel about Fielder or what sort of contract they’re prepared to offer him.  But looking at that infield and the lineup below, I really hope the Jays are looking at all avenues to make this happen in a deal they deem “affordable”.

    Escobar
    Johnson
    Bautista
    Fielder
    Lawrie
    Rasmus
    Encarnacion
    Snider/Thames
    Arencibia

    Sign Johnson to an extension and this is likely the worst lineup your Toronto Blue Jays will field for at least 3 years.

    25+ homer potential from 2 – 9.  .800 OPS potential from 1 – 7(8?).  Great OBP from 1 – 6.

    That’s some scary shit.

  39. I’m not saying Fielder is good, but 1B defensive ratings are really bad.  They don’t take into account being able to dig balls out of the dirt or adjust to bad infield throws of any kind.  They essentially ignore one of the most important aspects of the position.

  40. That’s the beauty of the relatively short series. All you really need is a strong #1 and #2 starter and you’re ahead of the curve. Depending on those pitchers and how they’re set up, both could account for 5 of the 7 starts. All the more reason in my mind that the Jays get a strong #2. Not to say that will make them a playoff team this year but when the time comes they’re going to need one.

  41. omg i would blow prince every day if he would only join our grand team!!!!!

  42. Maybe Rogers could sell tickets for gay folk out there and further offset his salary.

  43. Rather long winded article on the Jays over at Biz of Baseball that I have neither the patience nor the disposition to sift through right now, but I thought I’d link to it anyway for those that do:

    http://www.bizofbaseball.com/i

    I hope it’s not just a regurgitation of the events of last week, but that maybe it can add something to the discussion…Or maybe not…Worth a shot.

  44. Imposter troll below me, dont respond.

  45. The Rangers and Cardinals also demonstrated the importance of strong, deep bullpens this year if a team wants to make a long playoff run.

  46. Also, what’s with people saying “Fielder alone won’t get us to the playoffs… so don’t do it.”

    Christ… you’re not signing him to a one year deal.  And hopefully you’re planning on competing sometime in the next 5 – 10 years, so why not. 

    You’re got to build the team up to competitiveness.  Even if you’re not competing next year, if you see value over the life of the contract for the dollars paid… I think you jump at it.

    Your prospect pitchers will start contributing in 2013/14.  D’arnaud will be here in 2013.  Gose and Marisnick will be up at some point.  More players will be added over the next couple years and Fielder will still be here.

  47. Oh come on.  No one’s saying it’s irrelevant, but the fact that 2 players have similar WAR over a 4yr span does not necessary make them good comparables when trying to make future projections.  Honestly, it seems like you’re sticking to your guns because you don’t want to agree with BFF.

  48. Thanks for the link. Not a lot of financial information in there but a couple of good points all the same.

  49. I would rather keep the Yankees and Sox pitching full of holes and go after Darvish.  I think he has a much better chance of providing more value then his salary(and posting), while Prince has proven that he isn`t worth what he is looking for (25M per)

  50. In a Fielder vs. Darvish situation, if it were one or the other, I’d take Fielder hands down. Even though I perceive starting pitching to be more of an priority/immediate/daunting need, this guy isn’t the answer at the price that will be commanded. I personally guarantee wherever Fielder lands, he won’t take a shit and make a mockery of his contract…

  51. We’re getting neither, just suck it up. AA isn’t going to try to make this team good until his job is threatened, for now the goal is to have his decision always pushing everything back 2 years at a time . . . just wait for Aaron Sanchez in 2016, we’ll all be saved then.

  52. trade idea for heyward: snider + thames/fransisco/davis/teahan + mid level prospect+ kj for heyward and prado

  53. I think I got your answer.

    Sign Fielder to a 15 year,30 mil per year contract for a total of 450 mil

    This raises payroll to the level that,according to you, gaurantees the Jays will go to the playoffs.
    It’ll create a buzz in the city and teach those Rogers bastards to spend some money.
    AA can go about his business developing the team because payroll will be higher.
    And because payroll is higher, you’re gonna have to find another cause to troll about.

  54. Sign Fielder to a 200 year deal at 1 million per.  That way the Jays only take a small hit to the payroll from him each season, and Fielder gets that long term contract he’s after.

  55. Jays would still have the 3rd best offense in the division.. so whats your point..

  56. I´m not convinced we should get Fielder. We need arms.  Its been a shortcoming of the Jays for years now.

  57. if fielder cant get a 7-10 year deal, i think he signs a deal with an opt out after the first 3 years ala cc sabathia. that way if hes still producing and the 1B market is stronger he can then get a better deal. i wonder if that could be a possible deal breaker for the jays or any other team.

  58. If you sign fielder, you have to acquire a starting pitcher. doing one without the other doesn’t make much sense.

    Even then you need a Lawrie, Johnson, Rasmus and Arencibia to put up some 3 WAR seasons (min)

    Just signing Fielder, would just be wasting another year of Bautista and a really expensive year of Fielder.

    Its probably a year too premature 

  59.  its a good idea, but if he does break down. he’s not going to opt out

  60. Good point. We can just sign Fielder when we are ready because he’ll probably take a series of one-year deals.

  61. but many many more that didn’t

  62. Fella, I think you may be on to something. 

  63. haha, yeah

  64. I don’t see how both aren’t possible, they just can’t sign two massive names. I’d gravitate towards Fielder for the guaranteed offensive onslaught, and a shorter deal/trade for a solid arm that you can lock up for two-three years. 

    Anyway, I’m by no means an impatient fan, but at least one or two big moves/spend are necessary for the 2012 season. I think a good chunk of the pieces are in place; scrap heap-shit sends the wrong message to the entire team and is a disservice to the fan base in general.

  65. Mark Teixeira is pretty chumppy.. do you think the yankees are loving how his deal is working out?

    and he atleast offers defensive value

  66. The thing is.. AA made his 2012+ improvements in mid 2011..

    If we had finished last year.. and this offseason, AA added Kelly Johnson and traded for Rasmus, Jays fans would be hyped..

    but he added them mid 2011, and they didn`t hit that well in a small sample, so everyone is waiting for massive improvements

  67. As fullmer said 100,000,000 times rogers is cheap did you not get that yet

  68. Beware of imposters

  69. I would suspect that they’re plenty satisfied, yes, even though they might have hoped for more.  What the fuck is wrong with 12.6 WAR over 3 years? 

  70. We don’t have to add both this winter. If we got one this winter at least it is showing fans the will to spend is actually there.

  71. I was hoping for Johnson to decline arbitration; I don’t have much faith in him at all, but I hope I’m wrong. 

    As for Rasmus, great young talent but highly unproven, and I don’t have much faith in his attitude, particularly given his admitted capitulation for the remainder of 2011. 

    The way I see it is that the Jays have shed a ton of payroll, and they need to do some smart spending for 2012. I refuse to accept a rebuilding year with nothing committed, but as I have commented, my contribution is $7.50/game, with hard stuff brought in and stolen concessions. 

  72. “…It all points to the Jays being involved in the bidding…it’s just a question of whether they’ll bid the most (and knowing Rogers’ methods, they won’t). I still hope that  the five-year thing was a smokescreen by Beeston.  It’s absurd to make it club policy not to sign any player for longer than five years.”  

    Again, who knows, but I can imagine them business wise being more interested in going for bigger annual dollars at the shorter term (since they lay out it clear detail why they don’t want longer than 5 year terms. Atleast for genetically overweight men and Pitchers)… But how is it absurd? It’s not your money or your building strategy. It’s only absurd to you as an idividual. If it was your money, maybe AA’d give a shit.

  73. I’ll bet Scott Boras didn’t think he’d have to wait this long to get his boy a contract.  Especially after the Pujols deal.  I rather like the idea of him pacing up and down, checking the phone line to see if it works, hitting the email button on his iPhone every 30 secs…

  74. There are WAY more differences than similarities. You’ve been avoiding that fact, despite many (including me) pointing them out.

  75. Boras should be required by law to send along a copy of the book he did for Barry Zito with every other FA book he puts together…

  76. Turn the fucking page!

  77. http://www.fangraphs.com/graph

    any team that looks at those graphs up to 2006, especially the rising BB/9, and thinks that guy is heading to anything other than being a average, back of rotation guy, has no idea what they’re doing.

    unfortunately, brian sabean’s job is sercure because the NLWest is such a pile of shitty teams, and they drafted three aces who basically carried them to the WS once they got in to the playoffs.

  78. He’d cum here no doubt.

  79. That book must be 275 pages, ah ha fat joke. 

  80. My grandmother can throw harder than Barry Zito and she has no arms.

  81. I WOULD LET FIELDER FIST MY BUTTHOLE FOR THE ENTIRE TIME A CHRISTMAS STORY IS ON THIS CHRISTMAS!!!!!

  82. http://www.baseball-reference….

    Jays sign Alex Gonzalez for 2.75 with a 2.5 team option. Trades him while his value is at it’s peak for a four win player, extends that player for 2 years and 2 option years @ 5 per.
    @738228ed7477cb67dd351dd621233be7:disqus 
    Alex Gonzalez just signed with the brewers for 4.25 with a 4 million option based on 525 PA.

    What GM AA did was textbook, yo.

  83. What scrap heap shit do they currently have in the starting lineup though? 

  84. Edwin Encarnacion. He should be pushed into a utility role by a better hitter.

  85. Edwin Encarnacion has the third-highest OPS on the team last year, are you serious?

    (he was also 4th in wRC+ and wOBA, so it’s not like it’s just one metric that’s overrating him or something)

  86. Heck, if they signed Prince, he should be pushed into a straight platoon with Lind, also filling in elsewhere if needed (so slightly bigger role than utility)

  87. A .344 wOBA from your DH is not good at all, especially when your 1B is posting a .315 wOBA. That’s a lack of offense, and chances are those 2 players are better off platooned.

  88. Fair enough, I wouldn’t be opposed to a platoon at 1B/DH involving those two guys. I don’t know why your original answer was EE though when Lind was markedly worse, and they’re both basically equally able to play 1B/DH as necessary.

    Either way I wouldn’t classify either of them as “scrap heap guys”… it’s not like they’re Mencherson or David Delluci or Corey Patterson or something.

  89. Just checked their splits out of curiosity and I’m not sure platooning would be such a good idea. In 2011, Lind’s OPS vs. righties was .771; EE’s was .767… yikes.

  90. Bring on some real news.

  91. Well Lind is being given another chance because of his 2009, so I think it’s important to view their stats in 3 years splits to get a more accurate measure.

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/

    Combined they make for around a .345/.515 type hitter.

  92. I’d love to see Prince crush the ball @ Rogers, and could make it a  lot of fun.  Not that it’s likely of any value here, but Prince kinda sorta has a very similar “physique” to his daddy…the kind that breaks down joints over time (I think Big Cec had major knee issues, IIRC).  

    Looking at B-R.com, Cec’s last 800+ OPS year was at age 32,  and his oWAR was only 0.6.  Went downhill quickly from there, but maybe he was busy gambling or whatever.  Different era, different player…I know.  But I just keep wondering if Prince’s knees and body are gonna last the length of a 5 or 6 year deal, let alone 10.  And we all become our parents, right?Of course, I can also remember watching Cecil playing 2B in a game for the Jays in the mid-80s… I suspect nobody slid in to break up the double play in that game.

  93. I think my comment was just deleted, but use their 3 year splits and you have a combined .345/.515 hitter. 

  94. That’s not how it works though, unfortunately. I don’t have time to find any links at the moment but there’s some good reading out there about why you can’t predict platoon output that way.

  95. I’m not predicting their output, I’m pointing to what it’s been 2009-2011.

  96. Even without Fielder, move Lawrie up one… Not shabby, either. 

  97. Fielder would be a 3-5 WAR upgrade himself. Not that I’m saying signing him is a requirement. But if you take Fielder as +3 over Lind, full season Lawrie as +2.5 over last year, and Rasmus and Johnson as +2 upgrades, Arencibia as +1 you have… 91 wins, around about. 

  98. Just for fun? lol, we were talking about the idea of platooning them in 2012, were we not?

  99. Don’t worry….. AA is just holding off signing Prince until he wins the bid for Darvish.  If AA signed Prince first, the Yankees and Red Sox would be more inclined to submit huge bids for Darvish to make sure the Jays didn’t land both players.  Once the Jays do land Darvish, they don’t have to worry about the Yankees or Red Sox driving up the market for Prince since both teams are already set at 1B/DH.

  100. It would be interesting to know how successful teams that have dished out the most expensive FA contracts (i.e. top 5 in a given year) have gone on, in the first 1-3 years of said signing, to 1) win the World Series 2) make the playoffs or 3) improved by 8-10 games. Not to say that there aren’t many other factors that contribute to the change including other big name signings, other players leaving, etc.

    Blowing your wad on one fat asshole that could just as easily hit 50 HRS/120 RBIs as he could gain 100 more pounds and keel over (one dimensional with a penitence for food and other stuff?) in the next five years is a big $25-30M gamble. How can you commit that kind of money to someone that can’t even commit to being the best athlete that they can be? Some random words to close my post:

    1/5th of a billion dollars ; fat ; glutton ; selfish ; non-committed ; mistake ; lack of motivation ; fat ; Boras ; Wells ; J.P. ; sustainability

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