I thought for sure that yesterday I’d get to the office and be able to rather easily toss off a bit of extra analysis of the Yankees’ transformational Friday night. I found myself, however, having difficulty getting up for another version of the same old fucking fucking fight, combating some of the sullen sky-is-falling nonsense I’ve seen in my inbox, in the comments here, and in the Toronto Star. Rogers aren’t spending enough money! Why won’t Anthopoulos make a trade! The future is never now, and the honeymoon is fucking over!
Honestly, it just feels redundant at this point to keep trying to hand-hold these hysterics back to reality, and frankly, whatever I might say won’t be a whole lot different from what most of the reasonable commenters here are saying anyway. You know, the people who’ve figured out that it’s futile to keep thrashing their heads against the dead horse of Rogers’ cheapness, and have seen that there’s a legitimacy, as much as we don’t like it or may not think it’s necessary, to their refusal to put the cart before the horse. The fans who grasp that it would almost certainly have taken including a Brett Lawrie to bring Pineda to the Jays– and do ya maybe think that would have changed the tone of Damian Cox’s moronic spew? The ones who haven’t lost sight of where this club is truly at.
Cathal Kelly suggests that “this year’s Jays look ominously like last year’s Jays,” apparently forgetting that Patterson and Nix are already replaced by Rasmus and Lawrie, Hill by Johnson, Rauch and Francisco by Santos and Oliver, Reyes by Alvarez, shitty first half Encarnacion by solid second half Encarnacion, hurting Lind by healthy Lind, and 27 starts from shitty Drabek and Villanueva (5.15 ERA as a starter, 1.50 as a reliever) by either better Drabek, or Dustin McGowan, or Drew Hutchison failing that.
The Jays start out better on paper. Plus, they’ll see guys like Hutchison, Anthony Gose, Travis d’Arnaud, Adeiny Hechavarria and a number of other arms get another year of development that will push them closer to the big leagues, and turning either themselves, or guys like Rasmus, Alvarez, McGowan, Brett Cecil, Travis Snider, Eric Thames, or JP Arencibia into decent trade chips– the kind of quality MLB-ready pieces the Jays lacked the ability to move this winter, that the Reds (Yonder Alonso), Diamondbacks (Jarrod Parker) and Yankees (Jesus Montero) didn’t.
Sure, another year of poor performance may see guys like Snider, Cecil and Drabek truly devalue themselves, but there were more than enough questions hanging over their heads this off-season that it’s not likely they would have been seen as true centrepieces in any deal like the ones Jays fans so badly want to rue the club’s failure to deliver on. Lawrie could be. d’Arnaud could be a key piece, but he certainly doesn’t have the offensive pedigree or minor league history of Montero– 2011 was truly his offensive breakout year, posting a .311/.371/.542/.914 line after two sub-.320 OBP, sub-.740 OPS seasons in the Sally and Florida State leagues.
Given another strong year, he’s a much better trade candidate– or a more realistic candidate to force a JP Arencibia trade. Same goes for Gose and Rasmus, and the starters who spent 2011 at Dunedin and New Hampshire– Hutchison, McGuire, Jenkins, Wojciechowski– and the guys they’ll push for jobs at the back of the rotation. Even with expected flameouts, the Jays will have a lot of nice pieces– nicer than they realistically do now, given how far away some of their better prospects are, and how important to their future guys like Lawrie and d’Arnaud are– to move in a year’s time, or even at mid-season, when more clubs will be willing to start selling off what they’ve got. And they’ll have another wave of guys– Marisnick, Nicolino, Syndergaard– that much closer.
In other words, the Jays’ recent hoarding of draft picks is only just starting to pay dividends, and while a lot of fans will say that the new CBA makes that strategy untenable, insisting the Jays rush to change course and start spending wildly, there is really a lot still to be reaped from the rebuilding of the farm system.
This, of course, isn’t to excuse the club’s lack of spending– they could have augmented this process by filling roster spots with free agents– but to understand why the club hasn’t rushed into bad deals that weren’t very likely to get them to the level of their division rivals this year anyway, and why it’s not a cop out for Anthopoulos, working within the parameters that have rightly or wrongly been set by ownership, to have stayed so quiet this winter.
The Yankees have shown they’re always going to be strong, and there’s never really going to be some special one-time window of opportunity to blaze past them. People who insist the process isn’t going fast enough, or that spending and success won’t ever happen because it hasn’t happened yet, I’m sure it feels real cathartic to hysterically vent about what seems to be yet another off-season that hasn’t magically fulfilled your wildest dreams, the rest of us will be over here in reality, feeling fucking great about the future, having (mostly) never been under the illusion of any pipe dream path to a 2012 pennant.
I agree with a lot of what you’re saying…and I truly hope you’re right that the Jays have options going forward. But if Lind doesn’t produce like 2009 and first half of 2011, what are our options? EE? Cooper?
EE is only good for a spot start. And Cooper has essentially no power and should not be considered a viable option at first…at least in the AL East.
I still say that Fielder over the length of any contract will produce at a high level. Even with his down years, he has averaged 38 hrs over the past 7 years. I know that includes a 50 hr year…but take that out and he still averages 35 approx. Which I think you and I can both agree is acceptable if the Jays don’t have to completely overpay. I still am of the opinion that at 22/23 mil a year…it’s not such a gross overpay that it shouldn’t be considered over a 6 yr deal.
Plus…at 22/23 mil, if he signed for that…as long as he didn’t get injured by year 3…that contract could be moved if need be.
On the other hand…I’m not completely against the wait and see approach this year. BUT…I am completely against the total avoidance of the free agent market after this year. I am strongly against the philosophy that this team should only sign a free agent as the final piece of the puzzle. There is no reason why this team can’t sign 1 or 2 free agents over the next couple of seasons and trade for other pieces as well.
By essentially avoiding the free agent market, AA has missed out..and will continue to miss out on players who can help build this team. And at least this offseason, he got knocked on his ass when he learned that the trade market was just as expensive as the free agent market…if not more so. Hopefully he’ll adjust his methods next offseason. I agree trades can be cheaper…but free agency this year was not as inflated as in years past compared to the trade market and may have been cheaper for some players.
Sure, Cooper’s a long shot, and Lind’s likely not the player we hoped he is. Both have non-trivial chances to succeed, but I’d bet against either. Same as McDade; he could develop, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
The thing about first base is though that a lot of the guys who end up playing the position aren’t first base prospects, either as major leaguers or minor leaguers. Lind was a LF. Teixeira and Thome and Bagwell were thirdbasemen. Pujols started at third, shifted to OF before settling in at 1B. Palmeiro was an OF. Delgado was a C. McGwire was a 3B. Konerko played a mix of 1b, 3B, and OF in the minors. Youkilis was a 3B, before moving to 1B, before moving back. The list of first basemen – including great ones – who started at other positions is extensive.
Right now, there’s the battle between Snider and Thames – if both develop, one can move to first. Or if only one does, but Gose or Marisnick comes along and pushes into a job, again, one of the corner OF can be moved. Or if Arencibia’s holding his own offensively when/if d’Arnaud comes along, a JPA/Lind platoon at 1B could be solid, and would prevent the need to use an extra roster spot on another backup C. Moises Sierra breaks out? Send an OF to first. A good 3B becomes available in a trade? Blocked by Lawrie, but there’s room at 1B for one of them. Or Bautista could lose a bit of speed, and 1B would be the natural place to shift him. Or somebody who’s not even on our radar yet could take a big step forward. There’s no one option, there’s a whole bunch of options – most of which will be flops – but you need only a small percentage to work out to close a hole there. And failing that, you can always find a good hitter somewhere on the free agent market or in a trade, and it’s easy enough to shift the corner defense around to fill the hole regardless of his position.
You probably won’t get a hitter as good as Prince Fielder out of it, but I’d take my chances on whatever arrangement is available for 1B plus the best upgrades that 23-mil can buy – targeted at the most pressing needs after a few more questions are answered – over an offense-only player, unless that player is close to the level of a prime Frank Thomas (which he isn’t).
No, I don’t think the Jays should sign Votto. I don’t think the Jays should sign any first baseman until they have addressed the other, much more important parts of the club. I’ve said this numerous times now. I’ll yell, if it helps.
Signing Fielder now simply makes it harder to commit resources to other, more important players, and doesn’t dramatically increase the Jays’ chance of making the post season.
Interesting that you mention Howard. Fielder is likely to decline as Howard has started to do, so why commit 7 years to Fielder?
You say that the Jays might have to pay more later, and that that would be dumb? How is it dumber than paying for something now that you don’t need and that doesn’t help you very much? Consider buying a car for your son. You can spend $12k now when he’s 13, or spend $15k when he’s 16. Which do you do?
As for your last question, I ask you what’s to stop the Jays from addressing the 1B situation in 2-3 years at the trade deadline when a team with a top-flight 1B drops out of the race? It seems like the Jays could use the money they have now to acquire starting pitching, or a 2B, in the interim.
I just wish the Jays would decide to go one way or the other. Rebuild or not. AA seems to want to have his foot in both barrels. He has some very good players in place right now and it seems to me if he added a couple of pieces now – #2 starting pitcher and a #4 hitter to protect Bautista the Jays could seriously challenge for a playoff spot. If not they still have some very good players in place then trade Bautista now for some very good young prospects. The braves are looking for a player like Bautista…righthanded hitting outfielder with a team friendly contract and they hav some top quality young players. What about the Marlins? Would it be possible to pry Stanton and Morrison away as part of a package for Jose? Maybe the Rangers would be interested. I’m sure some team would give up 4 very good young players for Jose now with his contract. Otherwise give up some prospects and some cash and make a move now. I don’t know if either way is better but I do know that to have another 2 years same as the last 2 years and watch Bautista decline to the point where he brings next to nothing while not contending seems such a waste and very dumb.
You can say “us” Jays fans are being impatient or hysterical but your opinion of the prospects or what the team looks like on paper is shall i say looking thru rosed colored glasses.. We have no idea how these prospects will turn out.. Its possible only 1 becomes a solid pitcher, and maybe 1 becomes a reliable reliever.. As for how we are improved because Johnson over Hill?? really KJ hit more hr’s but all the other numbers were no better then Hills really so i’d say its same as last year.. Rasmus over Patterson i will give you BUT Rasmus hopefully puts it together this year or the upgrade isn’t by much.. Lawrie over Nix is an upgrade but again there is a “but”.. if he doesn’t adjust to how the pitchers adjust to him it could lead to a down year compared to the expectations people have.. Last year was another down year for Lind so why should we expect him to light it up again? he had 1 good year then 2 bad years so could be that was 1 year was a fluke.. then we look at LF and got no clue if Snider finally puts it together or if Thames takes over again.. so besides SS and RF we have a ton of “??’s”
I have been a die hard Jays fan for 25+ years and have defended them every year but this year is different, this off season i thought AA was gonna be aggresive in the FA market or in trades and our big FA signing is a 41yr old lefty.. So just think about that and tell me again why we shouldn’t be a little upset at the lack of activity”??
If you can defend the way the Jays were run in late 1990s and early 2000s, but not now, then you’re no Jays fan at all.
The Braves spent the entire decade of the 1990s “retooling” instead of rebuilding. They struck an amazing balance between maintaining a competitive team and developing a steady stream of young impact players. They sustained a good-to-great team for more than 10 years.
Why the fuck would you choose “rebuild or not” over that?! That is what AA is trying to achieve.
The Braves were utter shit in the mid 1980s. They didn’t win anything of note between 1982 and 1989. AA’s been at it a couple of years.