Turns out we have a studio with a bunch of microphones here at the office, so Drew, Parkes and I took a 15 minute break from arguing with people on Twitter to record an instant reaction version of the DJF Podcast in the wake of the McGowan contract extension.

If you don’t want to use the player, you can download it right here.

Comments (129)

  1. Okay, you’ve sold me on the years. But otherwise, this is an Extra 2% move. 1BJW is right – $3 million is nothing. Does not limit our ability to sign another player. If McGowan is for real, holy crap, AA for the win.

    • Like.

      Very well said. The extra year is a concern but I doubt that it was a benevolent initiative by the Blue Jays. More than likely it was a negotiated element to the deal.

      I am disappointed with the pisspoor podcast anyalsis. Dustin has diabetes? Really? FFS Parkes. Oh, and Vogelson was an all-star and Dustin isn’t an all-star? WAR analysis? Really?

      And how the money might take away some plan by the Blue Jays to buy a bunch of Dominicans? How many did Parkes say? Was it 7?

      The guaranteed money is but a pittance. Analyze this. Go and get a free agent number 3 or 4 starter and come up with his contract terms. Both in terms of years and AAV. And who are willing to come play for the Blue Jays.

      Or what it would cost the organization to acquire said number 3 or 4 starter. You still like them top 100 prospects? Well, don’t grow attached.

      Is McGowan a number 3 or 4 starter right this fucking minute? Of course he isn’t. He might never be. He might not even throw a pitch before June for all we know. But the Jays have been scouting the shit out of McGowan all spring. This is what you would call a calculated gamble based on scouting. Fuck sabremetrics.

      • Fuckin’ rights my good friend BallsDeep.

        Fuck Sabermetrics right in its mathematic pi sphincter.

        Fuck beards.

        Fuck off Parkes.

        Here’s a standing ovation to Zaun calling out Arencibia and Lawrie on their “showy” celebration on Jays Connected.

        And here’s a toast to old time baseball, and its intangibles. WAR can lick my nasty ass.

        And here’s to everyone who dislikes what I have said, you can all lick my linty sack and nuts.

  2. medication and hospital bills aren’t cheap these days

  3. It’s a DJF podcast why is Drew still the lead guy not Stoeten?

    • Also this 3M better come out of the Votto 2013 fund!

    • Before Drew joined the Score,the podcasts had mostly Stoeten and Parkes rambling a bit too much ( over explaining and going in circles ).Then they invited Drew to sit in for short stints during the podcasts.When Drew was there, he seemed to move the conversation along.
      When somebody at DJF suggested to Stoeten, that Drew seemed to move the pace along, Stoeten went ballistic for about a week.
      Then he settled down and realized that when Drew moderated,the flow of conversation moved along a lot better and made the podcast more enjoyable.Now with Drew moderating,Stoeten and Parkes get to more subject material and their arguements are more coherent.A win for all involved and for those who like the podcasts..
      That’s why Drew moderates,so Stoeten and Parkes can get to their points in under two hours.

      • Radar, I don’t know what’s more mind-blowing, that you probably actually really believe the shit that just dribbled out of your brain here, or that you think anyone might be dumb enough to buy that you could offer any kind of insight into the inner workings of not only our office, but my mind as well. Amazing.

        • You’re right again.
          I have no knowledge of the inner workings of your office.
          I should’ve added the caveat “in my opinion”.
          From the outside looking in,when you compare pre Drew to after Drew,that the podcasts seemed to move along better.I assumed that was on purpose.Just an observation from my point of view.

          I know you’re overly sensitive to any sort of constructive criticism or to anybody that doesn’t blindly agree with you but sometimes your readers see things different than you ( rightly or wrongly).From what I’ve read from other commenters, Drew’s addition improved the quality and has allowed you and Parkes to get your points across.That’s a good thing.

          • Read back your comment and tell me how it’s tone was at all in the realm of “constructive criticism”. Fuck your little cordial act when you need to back the truck up from something dickish you’ve said completely unprompted.

          • I reread them.
            No need to back up the truck.
            I was responding to a question posed by Dustin M. so it wasn’t unprompted.

            If you found the comments dickish,then so be it.
            Don’t like the cordial act? Uhhh okay.

            Any thing else?

            • You were responding to a question posed by Dustin M. so it wasn’t unprompted? You responded with a bunch of made up horseshit about me, you fucking dope. THAT’s what was unprompted.

  4. “The most ridiculous contract possible”?

  5. A bit surprised that the smartest Jays blog doesn’t understand a smart gamble by AA

    • And gamble is seriously overstating things, 3M over two years is nothing.

      Even bringing up the Johnny Mac contract is silly. This isn’t the same thing.

      • It’s not the money that’s the issue. It’s the spot on the 40 man roster.

        • My God, you’re right. We need to make sure Scott Richmond’s spot is secure.

        • Even the 40-man roster spot isn’t guaranteed. He can be DFA’d at any time. Would another team jump on him if they put him on waivers given his injury history and the contract? Probably not.

          • So, no team would even bother making a waiver claim on him, because of his injury history and contract– and that’s an argument FOR the contract?

        • There’s plenty of room on the 40 man.

          Who are you worried about losing due to lack of spots?

          • I’m not sure how to frame this negatively. It’s basically a very low risk/low loss move that may become a bargain…otherwise it’s an ‘oh well’.

  6. I don’t see this signing as an “expensive lottery ticket” at all. Lottery wins are pure luck. Clearly McGowan has shown management something in spring training, and they have every reason to believe that he’s going to make it all the way back. Is it a risk? Of course. But it’s a calculated risk, and Anthopoulos has a decent record so far in taking calculated risks. They are not relying purely on luck here.

    With all due respect, you sound like a bunch of ninnies in this podcast. “Oh, this is insane!” you say, and yet seconds later you’re contradicting yourselves by validating the reasons on how it can make some business sense. If he’s hitting the mid-90s, he’s probably got an arm worth investing in … and really, this isn’t a huge investment at all. I say it’s a perfectly logical move, and as you said yourself, it ties in with the plan to make this club an attractive one for free agents. I like this signing quite a bit.

  7. Also, this God you worship, Keith Law, is wrong sometimes.

    • Well then I’m glad we didn’t point out exactly that he only saw one start.

      Fuck sakes.

  8. As gambles go, this one isn’t so outlandish. Pales in comparison to whatever the Reds are on the hook for Madsen, and certainly compared to $100M for Darvish or the $36M for Cespedes.

    To me, it just seems to be a $3M gamble that value is added, somewhat like “the insanely team-friendly contract” aka Sergio Santos. I mean, would Santos be worth Molina without Santos’ contract?

    Perhaps this is the new market inefficiency, gambling to add value as opposed to paying top dollar for it afterwards. Wouldn’t surprise me if AA believes so.

    Anyway, If it pays off, bonus; if not, big whoop.

    • Very good points. I think the Jays have invested a lot of time & effort in rehabbing Dustin over the past 3 plus years.

      He is finally ready to pitch, so if he has a decent season, the jays would lose him at the end of the year to free agency.

      It’s a calculated risk like Bautista, although a much lower amount.

      It’s a better investment than paying Rivera 3 million to DFA him in July 2011.

      • “He’s finally ready to pitch”

        That is still very much up for debate. And if he has a decent season the Jays would lose him? Why do you say that? And if they did lose him after a decent season, is that the worst thing in the world? McGowan is not a young man anymore and it’s far more likely he CAN’T comeback from this. Nevermind the fact a “decent” season isn’t anything to cry about if you lose out. There is plenty of pitching coming down the pipe and you’re worried about possibly losing McGowan after a decent season….a decent season that hasn’t happened yet.

        “It’s a caculated risk like Bautista….”

        NOT even close. Bautista had just hit 64 homers in about 180 games. 20 or so more than anyone else over that time. Bautista, while somewhat of a risk I would argue was a very small one. McGowan being extended really isn’t even a risk because the contract is so small…. but why waste the extra money when you don’t have to? Scared to lose your 5th starter with the load of starters coming up? I don’t get it.

        “It’s a better investment than paying Rivera 3 million….”

        I’m sure the Jays would have been happy to not pay him that 3 million or so. But when you are dropping 80+ million on the other side 3 million doesn’t seem so bad. Cost of doing business.

        • Dustin was able to pitch in Sept 2011 & has a pretty good spring except for the foot problem which sunds minor.

          My podiatrist gave me orthotics for the fasciatis & I was OK after a few weeks.

          The Jays have spent enough time & given Dustin a few million while he was rehabbing.

          Why not give him 3 million to see if he can pitch 200- 300 innings over the next 2 years.

          From what I read, he was a very good pitcher before he got hurt, so why not take a chance on him.

          This is not only a positive move for Dustin, but it also sends a message to the MLB, that the Jays won’t abandon their players.

          Didn’t JP Riccardi let Carpenter go after geing hurt & now he is one of the premier pitchers in the NL League.

          3 million is chump change when a guy like Darvish who has no mlb experience gets 100 million.

          Bautista at 65 million was a bigger risk for the franchise than 3 million to McGowan.

          Bautista had one amazing season, & many people thought he could not repeat.
          If Bautista had returned to 2009 or 2008 numbers & AA had resigned him. AA would be fired & selling souvlaki on the danforth today.

          The Jays decision to keep Rivera created Havoc from opening day 2011.

          Rivera could not play the OF in spring training. They make him DH.

          The Jays take E5 who was supposed to be DH, & move him to 3B with 3 days notice because he lost weight!.

          E5 was not ready for 3B & was an error machine in April & May & a disaster at the plate.

          The series of moves was a mess for the Jays & cost them several wins. This was done to save 5 million from DFA’ing Juan Rvera on April 1.

          AA learned his lesson thi year & DFA’d Teahan in January so he would not be a distraction to the lineup.

          Giving Dustin 3 million is a low risk compared to the chaos of 2011 to save 5 million.

          If Dustin bombs after 2 months then he can go on the DL & there is plenty of room for Drabek, Hutchison etc to fill the void.

          AA is smart enough to relize that pitching costs a fortune in 2012. He would have to trade 4 players to get a Latos, which is too much or give Darvish a 100 million which is very risky.

          Dusin is a low cost safe move.

  9. If McGowan pitched well enough to make the allstar game he’d be worth the deal in that span alone. 3.6M guaranteed is less than 1 WAR, so uh, yeah, not sure how it’d be “still suspect.”

  10. What the hell was spewing out of Dustin’s mouth? Bautista’s deal had less downside than McGowan’s because of the health factor?



    • I am pretty sure that Dustin was opposed to Batista ‘s deal last year saying it was too risky.

      It would have probably cost 100 million plus to resign Bautista. Furthermore he would be annoyed by the Jays not signing him last year.

  11. Very good deal for us. $3M is practically nothing, and the third year is a club option. Fair.

  12. if there are more djf podcasts are they gonna be in the podcasts section or impossible to find like that raptors podcast I stumbled upon once, never to be seen again?

  13. If there’s one thing AA seems to do really well (besides trade) it would be talent evaluation. Romero/Bautista/Escobar extension were all excellent, and I’ve got a gut feeling that Morrow’s could look very, very friendly in a few months.

    He traded Wallace away when everyone had him really high (could you imagine a Wallace for Gose trade straight up now? hilarious). He got Lawrie when he was just a stud prospect (instead of the Golden God he is now, allegedly).

    My guess is, AA and his scouts have evaluated that McGowan is going to have success again, and they “pounced” when he was at his lowest (not looking good last few starts, foot injury) and gave him some financial security. Peanuts for the team, definitely attractive to Mcgowan at the moment.

    After all, if hsi scouts are telling him that McGowan is looking really good, and they believe in thsi recovery, then what are a crappy couple ST games? It’s not going to change his mind….but that, combined with the foot injury, may very well have made Dustin much more receptive to a cheap extension.

    The downside is almost nil, and the upside is potentially very large. Great risk/reward move.

    • Very good post. This is a win win for the Jays . I would rather see AA go dumpster diving with one of our own players than trying to waste 20 starts on Jo Jo Reyes or Dana Eveland.

  14. To quote AA…”We will never give up on this guy.” Sometimes it’s about more than the money. Sometimes it’s about the loyalty, which is a 2 way street? You think this contract doesn’t resonate with other players? Having said that, do you think this has nothing to do with talent? How many pundits whined about not laying out a100 million plus for Darvish, yet whine about 4 mil for Dustin? People it’s all relative, get a frigging grip.

    Now, I’m not so dumb to think it will unduly influence free agants to choose Toronto over a bigger payday. It WILL put out there that Toronto is a great organization to play for.

    Besides, don’t you guys feel a bit naked out on a limb being contrarian about the GM’s decision? People questiond the JoeyBats deal, the Escobar trade, jeez a lot of so called experts paid to write about this stuff, they drank the Brewer’s koolaid about Lawrie. Now, they (not necessarily including you guys) are moaning about Rasmus before the guy has really started his time in Toronto. Talk to me about him at the end of the season. Same deal with Dustin.
    I’m going out on a limb yoo, but only a bit considering whose track record you are trashing, that would be AA. McGowan gives them 150 quality top of the rotation starts.

    Just admit that AA with his juggernaut of a scouting dept have more of an idea about projecting performance than media types who would throw like little girls if they were on the mound themselves.

    • But Keith Law said negative things about him recently, and that’s the gospel to these three.

      • How dare we not take the word of people who work for the club as gospel!

        • You’re missing the point. If they were praising the player to boost his trade value, fine, they’re biased.

          In this situation they actually signed the guy, so they must see something.

          • I’m sure they think they see something, yes. Should we just believe, then, that they must be right? When there can’t possibly be the same kind of data on the guy as just about any other player, given how little he’s pitched over the last three years?

            I’m not saying they’re wrong, but we have an obligation to ask questions about it, if we’re going to be more than cheerleading fanboys, no?

    • Exactly like the juggernaut of a department did with Mike Napoli, right?

      • They aren’t going to get everything right and the one glaring misstep they made was on a guy who spent, what, less than a day with the organization. To me, that is less worrisome than giving away an impact player who had been in the organization for a while because those are the types of players on which they should have the most info.

        Based on the way the trades went down between LAA and TOR and TOR and TEX, I’d bet that Napoli was always just a moving part.

      • wow, stoeten… we’re really going to go all contrarian with the one questionable trade by a management team that’s basically been the touted as one of the smartest, most cunning and well-resourced in baseball?

        Right. since AA & co. was wrong about Napoli, goddammit he must be wrong about McGowan.

        • And so the reverse is true?

          There is nothing on which he MUST be either right or wrong. That’s precisely the point.

          • No but the fact that you’re discounting their evaluation process because of one bad deal in Mike Napoli is just as absurd as discounting Dustin Parkes’ opinion because he fell on the wrong side of the Jose Bautista contract.

            So maybe the benefit of the doubt on McGowan wouldn’t be monumentally out of line. Especially considering the potential final loss is so small and the reward can range from marginal to who knows.

          • spclxk, I think I gave the club a lot of benefit of the doubt (especially when you see my actual post on it), and I’ll fully acknowledge that we’re nitpicking, because of the sums involved, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t point out when the club makes a decision that seems off. I mean, I’m not a cheerleader.

          • You aren’t cheerleaders and I know your rebuttal was addressing a more asinine statement but citing the Mike Napoli trade as grounds to admonish a pretty successful player evaluation team seemed rather ridiculous to me and that’s why I was compelled to post what I posted.

            In the grand scheme of things, I think this blog has done a fine job in toeing the line between fans and skeptics, especially amongst a readership that ranges widely in opinions.

      • Good move to play devil’s advocate on Napoli. I wish they would kept Napoli. They needed a backup catcher in case JPA bombed & he would be useful at 1B & DH.

      • Do you mean the Napoli that Texas has yet to sign past this season?
        I’m curious what your original stance was on Darvish or Lawrie or Rasmus (before he even starts) ?
        My guess is you are gung ho about spending zillions on Darvish who hasn’t pitched outside of Japan, or Fielder who hasn’t hit outside of that sterling and deadly National Central Division. I’ll give a guy 3 mil over 2 years when he can still throw up to 96 and can still snap off that wipeout slider. Go back and look at his 2011 8 strikeout performance, against the Amgels, not exactly a pussy lineup. Of course that was so long ago. Like last fall.
        I am a fan of your writing, and I’ve never had the red flag go up on your point of view. You will be wrong on this one. Book it.
        I leave you with 2 words.

        Chris Carpenter.

        • It’s not about money. At all. Please read what I’ve been saying before embarrassing yourself.

          • I’m addressing you original opinion, I’m not bothering with all your backpedaling since readers have called you out on this one. Admit you were wrong and move on.

            • You’re addressing the straw man you want to believe is my original opinion. Sorry, you fail.

    • Good post Pete Puck.

      This is a low cost reclamation project that the Jays specialize in. More importnatly he was drafted a Blue Jay & they have waited 3 years for him.

      It would be idiotic to let him go at the end of the season as a free agent.

      Let’s say dustin pitches 150 innings of under 4 ERA, won’t that be worth 4 million plus in WAR?

      Isn’t current 1 WAR about 3.5 million?

      Pretty sure Dusty Lambchops can put up 1 war in 2 years.

      If Keith Law was such a genius 1 of the 30 teams in MLB would let him go back into a front office position. Keith is not a god.

      • *SIGH*

        He didn’t post a sub-4 ERA back before he spent the last three years throwing only 91 innings total. You see how that’s maybe a leap, yes?

        As for the KLaw stuff, which is as moronic as it is every time this horseshit gets trotted out, 1) he was interviewed by the new group running the Astros, and 2) is it not possible that he LIKES his job and doesn’t particularly want back into front office work at all costs.

        Disagree with his analysis if you like– we even made it real fucking simple by noting that he only saw one start, and just an inning or two of poor performance– but don’t be dumb.

        • OK, I checked the numbers. He had an ERA of 4.08 in 2007 & 4.37 in 2008, with WHIP’s averaging around 1.3.

          This is OK.

          I realize that you may have a personal friendship with Keith Law, but to assume that he must be right about Dusty is a stretch.

          Perhaps Dusty does like being out of the MLB & being a commentator & cooking expert.

          However, why would he interview for a job with the Astros which is a very weak organization if he didn’t want to get back into baseball.?

          In fact, it is a low risk job to work for the Astros since they will probably lose 90 games a year for the next 2 or 3 years.

          My theory on AA’s move is that he sees that MLB quality pitching is very expensive in terms of prospects you have to give up to get a young starter or pay a ridiculous amount of money for Darvish .

          Dusty is a low cost move with upside.

          The Jays are willing to take bad contracts like Rivera & Teahan to get the players they want. They will & have DFA’s these guys in order to get young assets like Rasmus or get rid of Wells.

          Betting on McGowan at 3 million makes more sense than betting 100 million on Darvish or 75 million on AJ Burnett.

          • You also have to factor those era’s against an overall higher run scoring environment. Do that and they kook pretty decent.

          • Seriously, just stop talking about the KLaw stuff. People go to job interviews for reasons other than desperation to work somewhere, you know. Remember Tony La Cava interviewing with the Orioles? I mean… sorry that reality doesn’t fit with the point your trying to make, but it doesn’t. Move on.

            And nobody’s saying a $3-million bet on McGowan is definitely bad, it’s just curiously-timed, given that they could have at least seen him make a few starts and got him for practically the same price– which was also curious high, with respect of guaranteed years. Why the second guaranteed year? Maybe I’m wrong in assuming so, but I just can’t believe McGowan was in a position to insist on it. What’s his leverage?

        • Andrew, I know that being drunk is a badge of pride at this site, hell I’ll be in the bag myself and posting somewhere, as I have before. Hopefully tonight.
          Drunk or not, give it up, else people won’t think you are a drunk, they will think that you are an idiot who is drunk.

      • Straw man? So sorry, I thought you were just a douche who wore a hat in the office. Get a weave so you can get a life.

  15. There is no way in hell I am gonna listen to this circlejerk of McGowan hating over fucking 1.5 million bucks per year.

  16. Shawn Camp made 2.5 mil as a long RP last year and 1.1 before that… dont be silly and stop drinking, this is the year 2012…its not that much for a pitcher

    • Did anyone actually say that it was too much money, though? It’s not about the money– it’s about the term and the timing.

      • OK it’s about the term…was it Parkes or you trying to say it would be better to be 1 year and 3 million instead of 2 years and 3 million…jesus fucking christ.

        • That was Drew, actually, and it was quickly acknowledge by all of us that he went too far in the service of making a point. It was an off-the-cuff discussion, y’know.

  17. It’s a bit odd to me. If he’s healthy, McGowan will probably earn it quite easily. The problem, of course, is that he’s almost never healthy.

    In any case, it’s still better than giving out a 2 year/3M contract to a backup infielder like JMac as they did a few years ago (a contract that Parkes was in favor of at the time, considering it involved his favourite scrub).

    • Bingo Fullmer Fan. Pitching is very expensive now. You either give up a ton of prospects to get a young stud like Latos or pay a ridiculous amount of money for a free agent.

  18. I know everyone has said this already, but…

    It’s three million dollars. Over two years. He’s making less money than Ben Francisco (depending on source). He’s on pace to be the lowest-paid Blue Jay who’s not on the rookie pay scale and isn’t in the minors.

    We’re paying him as much money as a garbage-time reliever. Stop acting like this is some gigantic disaster. If they really needed the roster spot, they’d either send him to the minors or DFA him, and eat the rather insignificant contract.

    I mean, come on.

    • This is all true. But that doesn’t mean the timing and length of the deal aren’t curious.

      • You have to save your outrage for more serious matters like Lind batting cleanup against LHP.

        The season is young & am sure we will see more dumb moves.

        You should do a pre opening day podcast with season predicons.

        A guy I work with today said the Jays are either a 78 win team or 94 win team. Discuss.

      • If anything I’d say it’s a vote of confidence more than anything else. Lets face it when have the jays been wily nily spenders of money since AA took over? This move is very calculated to grant them additional starting depth at the right price. With draft restrictions and loss of compensation picks for nearly all free agents this is just another very cheap way to lock up talent. I am pretty sure mlb will see more of these deals in the future. Lastly you can never have enough pitching, Boston being a perfect example of that last year.

  19. The timing does seem a little unusual, even if he weren’t experiencing foot problems. Still though, I don’t see how we can gripe over $3MM. If they paid Rauch to be nearly completely useless last year for $3.5MM, they can pay McGowan for over 2 years for less money, and more valuable innings.

    Also, there was a little demand for the Snider photoshop pic to be added to (monocle), so here’s the final product. Good for a laugh.


    • lol nice. Only thing I would do is instead of Lawrie, he should be thinking of a smiling Eric Thames…..with voodoo pins all over him

  20. i can barely type this due to my eyes still rolling in the back of my head from the inane comments from this article and djf podcast about “it’s the years i have a problem with” and “it’s 3 million that could be spent somewhere else”.

    first off, it was the jays who probably wanted the extra year. at the current discounted price this is a steal! is there injury risk? sure, but the last time i checked the surest thing type players in mlb start at 5 years and 20 million a year. the jays have obviously done their homework, and they believe that he has come back. they waited as long as they could and got enough information to pull the trigger, and with every with start that he makes the jays realized that the price would only go up.

    think about it (and forget the vogelsong crap example), if he can pitch the year and be anywhere from decent to good (which btw is a huge concession on his upside on my part) who would’t want that arm at 2 years @ 3 million. it’s an absolute buy low with belief in the fundamentals. if he can pitch the year there is not one gm in baseball who wouldn’t be interested in 2 years of McGowan next winter at that price.


    and if you prime time sports round table knock off’s could could stop listening to your own voices for one moment and thought critically for one second, i hope that you could have come up with the best keith law quote for this situation which is that AA is a “value whore”. this deal screams that!

    as a special note for parkes, it is not 3 million dollars that could be used somewhere else, it’s 1.5 million for each of 2013 and 2014. budgets are set annually. comb your beard man! you sound like bob mcCown standing on his “why did they let jose molina go” soap box.

    as an extra special note to parkes i wonder why you went to the SABR convention at all? if you would have been paying attention to what was being said at the convention (between you daydream fantasies of driving down the PHC like a target demographic in a volkswagon ad) you would have saw Dave Cameron’s presentation on “scrap heap” pitchers and, i don’t know, applied the information to this suitable example, just a guess on my part.

    as you were probably listening to a nick drake track in your pontiac vibe rental doing your best to live out the commercial here is the link to Cameron’s presentation. go to the conclusions buddy.


    the following clip is the best way to describe my dismay with the editorial of this story.


    book it!

  21. I love how Parkes proudly parades his main argument against the signing of McGowan being the Giants signing of Ryan Vogelsong. How is that the best case scenario that McGowan could possibly get as a contract if he has a good year? Not exactly passing rhetoric class are we? Classic straw man argument: try to have the debate occur around your comp. Vogelsong was never (NEVER) a top prospect like McGowan was, so you are starting with inferior clay. (158th draft pick out of college & 5.56 ERA in AA at age 24 for Vogelsong vs McGowan being a BA top prospect for 2003 to 2006, as high as #18 and #33 overall in draft year out of high school). Plus, the Giants were buying Vogelsong’s age 34 and 35 years (not exactly prime). The Jays bought McGowan’s age 31 and 32.

    I am not saying I know what the right comp is, but I sure as fuck am confident that Vogelsong is not the only contract a smart agent would find to work on a deal for a decent year, and anyone worth their salt is not going to let you dictate that the negotiation occur on that comp.

    I am willing to believe the Jays have better number crunchers figuring out what fair value, risk/reward and comps work for them than DustinP with his sliderule and Cots baseball contracts. Just because the Score is paying you to poke a calculator and a keyboard doesn’t mean they are getting value for THEIR money.

    • More importantly, Vogelsong was still under team control. The notion that we can look at his 2/8.3m deal to have an idea of what McGowan would have made as a FREE AGENT if he was healthy and had 20-25 effective starts this year is ridiculous.

      • Further, even with all the injuries McGowan still has around 2-3 miles more on his fastball compared to Vogelsong. That’s a vital attribute in the ALE.

    • He was wrong on the vogelsong issue too. I remember making a long post arguing about it. As with any contract there’s going to be risk but both of these deals have huge upside baked into them for the clubs. Both teams are able to take those risks financially and not have it hurt them if they fail like a pittsburgh or tampa. It seems like they are getting more upset by the fact that the clubs didn’t squeeze every last cent out of the players. It’s almost like being upset about not selling a stock at it’s absolute top and then raging at the broker dispite the fact that you already booked a huge profit.

  22. Also, re:signing Dominicans with that $3 million – there is a cap on international budgets so unless you see the Jays go under the cap for the draft or international free agency for the year, this is no longer a possibility to spend the money elsewhere.

  23. gotta say it

    this was your best podcast yet

    can’t wait till you actually have something important to talk about and subject to this level of analysis

  24. I’m not a conspiracy theorist but I think the last statement of the podcast is true. They set the price high so he can go thorough waver without being picked up by other teams. Should be interesting.

    • I think that’s one of the silliest arguments. The money is not going to be a barrier to many teams especially spread over the 3 years. Again it is pretty much chicken feed for nearly all the clubs in an environment of record revenues. Guys with his stuff will always have someone willing to take a risk on them. Just look at how many chances like complete fuctards like Matt Bush get.

  25. I miss the like button. So many great posts tonight. The only thing we can all agree on is that we want Dusty to succeed. It’s only money, and it’s not even our money.

  26. Strange reaction from DJF over such a small contract with a quite reasonable chance of paying off. Worst case scenario it’s like eating Tehan’s contract, best case scenario we have a #3-5 starter for way under market value. The most likely scenario is that we have #5 starter with good stuff that may only start 20-25 times a year but he’s getting paid nothing like an Edwin Jackson or Oswalt or whatever.

    • I know it looks good right now, but after the type and number of injuries he’s had, being 30 already, and having struggled with command in his 21 innings last year, I really believe you have to drink a whole lot of Kool-Aid– and you’re far from the only one– to believe that “the most likely scenario is that we have #5 starter with good stuff that may only start 20-25 times a year.” He might be able to be that, and I hope he does and don’t begrudge him at all for getting paid, but a lot of the arguing about this is based, I think, in very different views of how likely it is that a player in McGowan’s situation can come all the way back.

      It’s much like the Bautista situation, where I’m thrilled to have been wrong about not gambling the way the Jays did on a player with such a strange and spotty track record. But even though I was wrong about that gamble and may well could be about this one too, I’m not going to apologize for trying to best interpret the risk involved in these deals and questioning the Jays’ approach where I see fit.

      • Honestly I really really like McGowan but the most likely scenario is that he throws 25 innings and is out for the rest of the year with another shoulder injury.

      • I seem to remember you backing up a tanker truck to load up on the Fielder tub of goo koolaid, the guy who played in the AAAA National League Central. 37 dingers hitting off of guys more than a few of whom had rag arms or threw like their sisters. 11 years for a guy that Jenny Craig won’t go near until he stops inhaling his veggie sliders. Jeez.

        It’s the American Leaguy (B)east I’m talking about, not the National League Fat Farm, and McGowan has done it here before, like in September 2011.

        • You’re still a complete fucking idiot misrepresenting my argument, but I just looked at Fielder’s HR log for 2011 and… yikes. He truly did HR of a lot of shitbags.

          • And you are still arguing an idiotic premise.

            Were you this stunned when teacher tried to teach you left from right? Maybe not a fair question…it assumes that you have GROWN THE FUCK UP since then. That’s a leap of faith. Douche.

          • i’ll knock off the insults for a bit, but as an old Scarboro guy, ranking somebody, that’s an art form. Or it was back in my day. Take the insults as a game. you wern’t half bad. Anyhow, and I’m serious here.

            Where we have a problem is I go by what I see. You seem to have to look it up, then put your foot in your mouth…ooops i slipped, my bad.

            Like Fielder. I see his daddy, who Fred McGriff chased all the way to Japan, back in the day. I have an edge, I saw them both when they first came up.

            Cecil, he came back with the Tigers, monster with a heater he could extend on. Quick through the zone, as fat as he was. Couldn’t bend over to scoop a bouncer, who cared with 50 plus dingers.

            He cruised along like that, a superstar, until he was 32, then started his slide down.He lost his edge early, guys could buzz him inside, high, sloppy low and away. Like pitchers have done damn near back to the Civil War. the hands slowed down, and he was done.

            And that is EXACTLY what the son will do. I’m here to tell you, the kid is a lot fatter and out of shape at this age than Cecil was. If that 80 year old Mike Illitch wasn’t senile, Prince would be sitting in Boras’ sauna trying to drop that last 75 pounds. Illitch needs an intervention, and probably a Depends change. That contract is dumber than Rios or Wells, hell those contracts put together.

            But you can’t see that, because YOU CAN’T LOOK UP what Fielder will do in the AL for the next 11 years. Which is sweet fuck all, if you ask me, because I WATCHED HIM in the NL Central. I don’t wait to look it up. I think AA and the boys pretty well work the same way. so I understand why you don’t get it.

            So have a good day, take a big bite out of life. It’s baseball, it’s only a game.

            And fuck you if you can’t take a joke.

      • But it’s the same amount AA gave to Johnny Mac. And wasn’t the argument then “it’s hardly enough money to care about it being a touch of an overpay?”

        And this is for a potential (albeit longshot) impact player. Common Andrew. You truly subscribe to Parkes’ absurdity on the subject. Yes, it’s a risk. Everyone knows that. But spending the majority of the podcast focussing on that as opposed to the potential for reward is parochial.


          • Well I see you’ve gone into “I don’t want to concede any more points mode” so let’s all leave you be.

            • I’m busy, for one. For two, read my goddamn posts and comments. I’ve conceded a shit-tonne. I’m not going to go through it all for you.

              But thanks for assuming that I’m just shutting down because I’m wrong and can’t handle it. Charming.

  27. Don’t teams insure players against injury?

    • It is used rarely because the cost of insurance is almost as high the payroll cost.

      Beeston said they don’t do it anymore.

  28. Well, the Blue Jays’ team doctors know more about McGowan than anyone and his health, so obviously the Jays Brass decided it was the right thing to do. We have already seen GM AA talk about how a lot of free agent signings don’t get done because of health. Health is very important it seems to him, so to see the team lock up Dusty for the next 3-4 years looks like they think his shoulder and elbow are structurally sound.

    DJF and GB are way off on panning this deal. This team needs starting pitching depth.

    One thing no one has suggested is that it could mean there is a trade coming with a pitching prospect (Deck? Drabek?) on the way out…

    • We’re nitpicking, yes. But holy fuck, people are looking at us like we farted in church because we aren’t ushering in this move as another triumph on the road to ten straight World Series championships.

      Good god, they signed a guy who has barely pitched in three years to a two year extension. We’d be pissing ourselves laughing if the OriLOLes did a thing like that.

      • Well I don’t know, making an entire podcast between the three of you to point out how ridiculous it is seems a stretch. Yes, it’s an odd move, but it seems to me that this shouldn’t warrant much more than a small post. Interesting, and it sort of makes you think what AA is thinking on this one. But come on, 15 minutes to shit on it?

        • Normally I’d agree but in Stoeten’s defense ( and I hate doing that) the subject has generated over 150 comments over 2 posts.There’s obviously some interest.Perhaps enough to justify the podcast.

          One thing I can note.
          There’s definitely a buzz with the Jays and it’s fans.DJF seems to be busier than ever,even with the move to the Score.The Facebook thingy seems to be growing.Stoeten’s twitter is getting more followers
          Bluebird Banter’s getting close to 1000 comments for ST games.
          Gonna be crazy when DJF starts with their game threats.

        • Welcome to the digital age, friend. This year we’ll be doing that kind of thing more and more, seeing as we have mulitple studios in the building in which to do such things. It just so happened that this was the first time we tried it. The thing was blowing up my Twitter and the comments on the post about it long before, so it fully warranted comment. It wasn’t just like we decided, hey, let’s go shit on this for a larf. Next time there’s a trade, demotion, extension, or in-game incident worth an impromptu 15 minute discussion, we’ll be on it. Y’know, as long as it happens on a weekday between lunch and whenever Drew goes home. Sorry in advance if that’s going to keep on offending your delicate sensibilities.

      • “because we aren’t ushering in this move as another triumph on the road to ten straight World Series championships”

        Wow, martyrdom for you guys I guess. No one I read came here to say this is anywhere near some brilliant strategic move or a guarantee of anything. My interpretation is the reaction is to the histrionics people read and heard emanating from you guys (though admittedly mostly from Parkes). The exaggerations mostly seem to be on the DJF/GB end, not on the reaction of the “fans”. Anyone who did react like it was a super-terrific-happy-time move is obviously deserving of ridicule, but that is not what I’ve seen from people here. And, is that type of hyperbole I quoted above not the kind of comment you guys heap scorn on.

    • well and truly said.

  29. Bluebird Banter ran a poll on this and after 700+ votes it was 80% in favor of this deal. DJF needs more polls is the obvious conclusion, here.

    Actually, I can’t remember seeing Stoeten and Parkes agreeing and going against a crushing wave of the readers at the site. Stoeten, do you remember this happening before?

    • Not quite to this extent, no. Not even on the Bautista thing.

      Probably not since we were all for cutting Reed Johnson to give Shannon Stewart a shot. Ha!

  30. worst case scenario is that a multi million dollar company is going to pay a few million to a player who worked hard to get back to the bigs and probably got shit out of luck on a decent pay day due to injuries. This contract won’t effect payroll parameters much I imagine and atleast a guy who went through a lot gets some financial security. That is the absolute worst that can happen, it could also work out very favourably.

  31. When you look at it as a 3 year, $4.1 million commitment for someone who has thrown 21 big league innings dating back to July 2008, it definitely doesn’t pass the smell test. I’d love to seem him prove that he can even throw 100 innings and not get injured before committing an additional $3.5 million to him. If he earns it I’d have no problem giving him a higher contract later on but how can you do it now?

    • This is pretty much what we said. For 12 minutes. Which somehow makes us history’s greatest monster, incapable of compassion or thought beyond what fangraphs tells us.

      • Seems like a strawman argument. Although, admittedly, I haven’t been completely following the conversations on twitter, the majority of the comments here and in DJF that were counterpoints to your collective reactions, seemed more in the mindset of reward vs. risk of the deal and that the analysis from such — and the strategies that came from it.

        Most of the people that follow these blogs and yourselves on twitter would probably think the emotional aspect of this was bunk anyway.

    • This is an excellent point. I know the money is really low here, but you hit the nail on the head saying that you’d have no problem giving him more if he actually shows he can be effective.

      • Tampa Bay, you know the penny pinching team that Parkes wants the Jays to use as their paradigm, signed Evan Longoria to an unprecedented contract as well as Matt Moore.

        Yes, it’s different because DM has health issues while Longoria and Moore had never-done-squat-in-the-majors issues.

        TBay gave less “before they showed they could be effective.” Remember the days when you wanted Snider to be Longoriad? Well, that was before he showed he could be effective. He has yet to show he can be effective.

        The risks/rewards are obvious. Going off about Vogelsong and Bautista’s contract being “safer” is a nice way to divert attention from the rationale behind AA’s move.

        • Two rotator cuff surgeries. It’s not just “health issues.” You simply cannot speak of this guy like he’s any other player.

          • That’s fair enough. But you cannot speak about this player as though you have access to his medicals. AA does.

            Obviously AA based his decision on his scouting reports (not Law’s one report based on a couple of innings) and the medical info at his disposal (which is more than the publicly available info you have).

            Based on the info he had, how can anyone conclude this is the “wrong” decision as Parkes so vehemently proclaimed?

            Based on the way you and Parkes present yourselves, is it unfair for me to say Parkes picks a side and sticks with it where you take a more eclectic approach and try to see it from all sides? Typically you do this, imo. Not in this instance. Again imo.

          • “Two rotator cuff surgeries. It’s not just “health issues.” You simply cannot speak of this guy like he’s any other player.”

            And yet Parkes continually comparing him to Vogelsong is acceptable?

          • I’m having a tough time taking seriously a guy who has to tippytoe to get on the big boy rides at Wonderland. Like who died and made you an expert?
            Tell me you played ball at Leaside, or GTHL, anything that shows you have been a jock sometime during your sad and short and pudgy life.
            All I see is Kevin Smith Jr, warlocking in mama’s basement. Oops, pardon me, the “control centre.”

  32. itunes link/ rss link?

  33. Given what everyone with inside knowledge is saying about him, McGowan has an upside that can rival Yu Darvish at 1/30th of the price. Control has been an issue in the past, but I’d much rather have 30 Dustin McGowans – ten of which may become solid starters and three of which may become true aces – than one Yu Darvish. I also think that if the Jays placed him on waivers right now, almost every team would try to pick him up with no qualms about this contract.
    “wouldn’t you rather they go out and spend this money on a dominican?” If a dominican came along with his kind of stuff, he would cost a lot more than 3 million.

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