Not that I really give a shit about the fWAR-based power rankings from Sports Illustrated– or, frankly, any power rankings– but it certainly jumps off the page to see the 19-16 Jays all the way down in 28th, with a .394 WAR winning percentage, ahead of only the lowly Twins and Pirates.

But that’s precisely where they find themselves in today’s edition of this collection of fucking uselessness…

“No team has a larger gap between their WAR winning percentage and their actual winning percentage than the Blue Jays, which is mostly due to the team’s staff having the second lowest strikeout-to-walk ratio in the league, ahead of only the Indians. The team’s ERA has been 7 percent better than average while their FIP has been 7 percent worse than average, which suggests that they will need to pitch better in order to maintain their results. The defense has been solid, but they are not good enough with the gloves to warrant an ERA that much lower than their FIP.”

Actually, I’d submit that it’s mostly due to the fact that, as we discussed on this week’s podcast, FanGraphs’ WAR uses UZR for defence– which places the Jays in the bottom third of the league defensively, and doesn’t count so much for their newfound love of shiftiness– rather than DRS , in which the Jays lead the entire fucking world.

But it does kinda speak to the fact that the Jays rotation has truly been getting a lot better results than their performances probably warrant– as, again, we discussed on the podcast. Though, as that corrects itself, the club’s struggling hitters will likely start coming around to offset it. Which… we also talked about.

Basically what I’m saying is, just listen to the damn podcast.

I’m also kinda saying… who gives a fuck about power rankings???

Comments (10)

  1. Apologies if it has been posted elsewhere here, but Tom Tango had an interesting piece about Lawrie’s (possibly inflated) DRS earlier today: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/has_brett_lawrie_already_saved_14_runs_so_far_this_year/

    • You can learn more from the comments on that post, than damn near anywhere. Fucking love Tango. Is he still a part-time Jays employee?

  2. Considering that Drabek has shown he’s no better than he was in 2011 (what with the walking everybody who comes to the plate), that Alavarez is getting a flukey ERA without striking anybody out, and Hutch’s struggles, it’s no surprise the pitching has been horrendous. And the bullpen hasn’t been much better, given the # of home runs they’ve allowed.

    THAT being said, it’s worth noting the Jays have a 4.10 XFIP, which is a much better indication of their pitching. While ranking 24th in XFIP isn’t great, there are 12 teams within .030 XFIP of the Jays. And given that the Jays have a 15 % HR%, it’s more likely that the Jays true talent in their pitching staff is 4.10.

    Which, at the end of the day, is still below average, but not nearly as terrible as the SI rankings make them out to be. Since WAR is based on FIP, not XFIP.

    Either way the pitching definitely needs to be upgraded as I doubt Drabek will ever be a successful major league. But I have had little faith in Drabek going back to last year, so maybe I’m wrong here. Alvarez could go either way but he needs a K pitch.

  3. Power rankings are just catchy ways to get hits on your website

  4. Wait so is their power rankings pretty much just going to fangraphs and listing the teams by total WAR in descending order?

  5. Do these fWAR scores (or whatever they are) take into account Fielding-Independent-Pitching and not Fielding-Independent-Hitting? Or do I have that wrong? If I am right, then that is a serious deficiency, in my opinion.
    I know a little bit about math (though they do day a little knowledge is a dangerous thing…) and I do not trust many of these new metrics all that much. Did anyone else see how there was an adjustment to how WAR was calculated and it fairly drastically changed players’ worth? Such a statistic cannot be trusted really – of course it can be revealing to a degree, but cannot be used as the be-all-and-end-all that happens so frequently these days.
    In a few years, more than likely, WAR, FIP and the like are going to be shown to be “very misleading” by the new batch of stats, and some people are going to feel foolish for being so high-horsed about them.

    • Well the creators of these stats themselves note that they are still flawed. Also it was BP that changed their version of WAR, not fangraphs. They use slightly different formulas. For example, fangraphs still uses FIP even though the general consensus is that xFIP is more accurate then FIP and SIERA is more accurate then both.

      Also fangraphs WAR uses UZR, which is wholy unreliable with minuscule sample sizes. As you might be aware it usually takes 3 years of data to get accurate results with UZR.

      • It was Baseball Reference, not BP or FanGraphs, who changed their formula recently.

        Agreed with your concerns, though.

  6. Lawrie’s RB Power rankings, which took a hit in last night’s game, is still number 1.

    RB Power = Red Bull Power.

  7. I need more stats on this theory on ground balls, first playing on turf, so provide spilt stats to see where they are, and to me the most important stat would be mph of the bat, ie is the guy crushing the grounder or soft rollers? I would lead to believe but not proven the turf has something to do with this, and the range of our D. We might have a lot of errors but they get to a lot of balls.

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