What Price Encadwin?

You have probably noticed that Edwin Encarnacion is hitting the cover off the baseball this year. He leads the team in slugging, OPS, wOBA, wRC+, and home runs. His 14 home runs are tied for second most in all of baseball. It’s great to watch a guy with an undeniable talent for hitting “put it all together” for an extended period of time.

Before Adam Lind’s demotion this week, it was easy to forget that EE was DFA’d, demoted, released and re-signed within the last two years. Quite a journey for a man who is now the team’s cleanup hitter. It is also easy to forget Edwin Encarnacion is just 29-years old and about to enter free agency for the very first time.

EE is putting together a tremendous walk year – getting into great shape and posting crazy numbers when he stands to profit most. The talk of “extend EE” began with earnest this spring and only grows louder with each successive big fly.

Surely the Blue Jays are interested in keeping the right-handed power bat in their reach but does anybody really think Edwin won’t at least toe the free agency waters? What will it take to lock down the artist formerly known as E5?

After reading Matthais of Mop Up Duty fame’s tweet, I immediately agreed. Encarnacion is sitting on a hefty payday, if his numbers come back down to Earth or otherwise. But then I got thinking…Edwin Encarnacion indeed one of the best hitters in baseball this season but he is, as previously mentioned, less than two years removed from kicking around the fringes of baseball. He was a man without a country, languishing on the bench and crushing PCL pitching for sport.

His E5 nickname also betrays a real lack of defensive value, though he makes a decent account of himself at first base (I guess.) Edwin stands to get a healthy raise from the $3.5 million he stands to earn in 2012 but, really, can we expect him to command an eight-figure annual salary? Consider Josh Willingham.

Josh Willingham is a very good hitter. In his six full seasons at the big league level, he never once posted an OPS below .800. His annual home runs totals over those six years? 26, 21, 15, 24, 16, 29. The two seasons he dipped below 20 represent the only years he managed less than 450 PA.

He’s very good. He’s durable and consistent. He was a free agent this offseason and received a nice contract from the Minnesota Twins: three years, $21 million bucks (with a health incentive for 2014 that worth $1M.) That’s it.

Like EE, Willingham isn’t much of a defender. Willingham is primarily a left fielder so EE’s new home at first base means the two players aren’t far apart on the defensive spectrum. Two players employed solely for their offense. Willingham was older than EE when he hit free agency but he is also, well, better. Is this contract a decent starting point for Encarnacion? It just might be.

Just three years ago, Adam Dunn hit free agency at 29 and signed a two-year deal with the Nats worth “just” $22 million total. Adam Dunn! EE might be a bad defender but he is not even close to Adam Dunn’s fielding butchery. With that in mind, no one in their right mind would argue Dunn’s production in the seasons leading to his free agency (five straight 40 home run seasons) eclipses even the most pie-in-the-sky projections for Encarnacion.

All of this is to suggest that, short of some GM losing his fool mind and shoving a truckload of cash in front of EE, the Jays should be able to ink Encarnacion at a pretty respectable price. It comes down to comfort level: the Jays known EE well and remain very high on his skills, sticking with Encarnacion through ups and downs. How many years get it done? How many years are they (or you, dear reader) comfortable with, keeping the potential outfield logjam/inevitable move of Jose Bautista to first/DH at the front of our minds?

If I had to guess, I’d say EE will trade dollars for years. Is two years, $16 million too little? A mutual option/buyout for a third year might get something done. Three years, $20M? That seems fair in a vacuum but considering what some other players got…I just don’t know. It is an interesting debate no matter what.

As stated above, I don’t think EE is going to pass up a chance to hit the open market. Everything is working in his favor to secure the biggest and longest pay day of his career. The Jays won’t be alone in bidding for his services but surely believe they have an inside track if they want to keep the popular masher in the mix.

Comments (86)

  1. Your numbers seem about right and if I was the Jays I would happily pay him that or at least do my best to extend him right now. Maybe that gets soon or right after the draft – at least I hope it does.

    If you look at what’s available on the free agent market next year and how far away the supposed minor league high ceiling impact bats are away from the big leagues then it should almost be a no brainer.

    It’s not like he’s been a fluke this year alone. Going back to June of last year where they stopped playing him at 3rd for the most part he’s had 4 excellent months, 1 average month and 1 bad month for a .864 OPS over that time. That would put him among the top 30 hitters or so in all of MLB in OPS.

  2. In the arbitrary end point game, EE is hitting .203/.286/.432 since May 3rd. So in other words, he had a good month so far, that’s it. If he wants to sign a reasonable extension a la Yunel Escobar I’m all for it, but even 3/20 is too high for a guy tearing it up to the tune of a .337 OBP.

    • exactly right northyorkjays.

      people gotta put their dicks back in their pants until the end of the season before awarding any trophies, or contracts, or drumming guys out of the league.

    • You can’t ignore the 3 great months he had last year and the one this year. Even for May he’s got an OPS of .750.

      • By the same token you also can’t ignore the 3 shitty months he had last year.

        • True but he definitely seems to have turned the corner. It’s like saying you had to ignore Bautista’s 2010 because he was shit prior to that. The trend is in EE’s favour. Going back to his Cinci days he also had 3 seasons right around .800 ops that’s nothing to sneeze at either.

      • Nobody is ignoring it, but it makes no sense to offer EE a Willingham-type contract when he’s been an inferior hitter since the start of 2010 compared to Willingham’s career. Willingham’s better stats and consistency (a very important piece of the pie) only landed him 3/21, so anything in that area for Encarnacion is way too high at the moment.

        • Very little to argue with here. None, in fact.

        • Well maybe Willingham only got 3/21 because he was 32 and just finished a second season of OPS decline after he topped out at .863. The trend in Willingham’s case was the opposite of EE’s. EE would be 3 years younger and on an upswing.

          • Below is his career month by month OPS splits:
            .916
            .707
            .743
            .937
            .738
            1.018
            .991
            .992
            .585
            .554
            .842
            .820
            .614
            .908
            .969
            .945
            .475
            1.025
            .987
            .743
            .715
            .476
            .901
            .478
            .854
            .677
            1.033
            .598
            .720
            .789
            .720
            .647
            .590
            .846
            .909
            .961
            .666
            1.054
            .750

            Encarnacion has always been a streaky hitter, and I expect by the end of the year he will be in and around his career averages. I personally say sell high.

    • Since we’re playing arb. end points, most of that bad line in May is due to a bad 5 game slump (around which he initially tweaked his back in LA, apparently) where he went 0-20.

      Since then he’s had about 60 ABs and had a .931 OPS.

    • Remember he has been dealing with that bad back so maybe that is the reason for his struggles

  3. I got mocked 3 weeks ago for suggesting 2/15 + 10 mill club option by either Law or Goldstein…can”t remember which.

  4. 3 years $28M. Throw in team option (AA’s favorites) for 4th year at whatever price. Open market is and will always be a bitch.

  5. when do we get to start calling him E3?

  6. Question Drew – I never understood why there is a premium on years vs. dollars. From a purely economic perspective, it is better to get dollars in a shorter period of time…plus you push up the clock on your next contract. You also put a higher value on your time so if you were to get a longer contract in the future it would presumably be a higher aggregate value. It never made sense to me. I think back to the Prince Fielder signing and the apparent insistence on more years even though the dollars were the same…just don’t see the logic there. Thoughts?

    • You always have to operate as if the contract you are signing is your last one, because you never know…

    • Always the years. Could be related to service time/pension. That and the risk of injury that might leave them empty handed.

      • Does anyone know what kind of pension MLB players get? Is it based on a percentage of career earnings?. I remember Johnny Mac getting excited last year because he would get a guaranteed pension with 10 years of service.

        • I think I heard the MLB pension was around 80,000 a year if you accrue 10 years of service time. But it could have changed since then.

    • Risk aversion. There’s always a significant chance you might lose your ability, get injured, etc etc, which completely destroys your earning potential down the line.

    • What your saying makes sense, but guys won’t take the risk of injury. Only guy who was doing this well was Clemens as a hired gun took some big 1 year contracts, but he had already made a lot of money over his career so he could risk it.

      I think Tim Lincecum might be wishing he took the long term money he was offered instead of the 2 year deals he’s on now.

  7. With the expectation that Edwin would trade years for dollars, and if he keeps up this level of production for the course of the year, AA may consider tendering a qualifying offer. I know 12.5M is a lot for EE, but if his production is real, then it would actually be a decent deal. Coupling that with the likelihood EE wants to try to get a multi-year contract, it may not be too bad of an idea to consider waiting on for a while.

    In terms of in year offers then, you would probably make an offer in the range you suggest, maybe a touch lower starting out at 18M over 3 years and negotiating up to maybe 21M over 3 years. After that, wait to see if it makes sense to go with a qualifying offer at the end of the year.

  8. 3 years $22 mill including a $9 million team option and a $1 mill buyout.

    I’d be cool if both E5 and Kelly Johnson signed for something like that.

    Well, technically Johnson SHOULD be worth more…but I’m not sure his skillset (premium position, high K & BB with a fluctuating batting avg) is going to be well compensated on the open market. After all, nobody particularly wanted him this past winter.

  9. He’s doing much better at the plate. I’m not calling him E5 any more. But let’s get a grip here. So far in his career he’s been worse far more than he’s been better. He had a good back half of last season and a very good April. But this isn’t a Jose Bautista-like breakout. I’d agree with everyone who says wait until the end of the season and see what the situation is then. There is absolutely no need to rush here. DHs aren’t hard to find. We need a 1st base and at least one outfielder before we need start to worry about EE next season.

  10. Seems like the best thing to do is talk to him now and find out where his head is at in terms of re-signing. If he’s willing to discuss an extension then try to hammer one out. If he’s undecided, and if the team is well out of a playoff spot come the trade deadline (which is looking unlikely at this point) I’d put him on the trading block to see what you can get for him as a rental, and take the chance that you can sign him in the off-season.

    With that mindset people will probably harp on the Jays for being sellers instead of buyers at the deadline, but to me it’s just smart business, particularly if the team isn’t a contender yet.

    • you folks are nutzzzz.

      the yanks and the sox are going to bounce back, if not this year, then next. and the rays are going noooowhere.

      the orioles farm system seems to be straightening itself out and that means this division is about to become the worst clusterfux you’ve ever seen.

      the jays would do well to realize that squeaking in via wildcard and making a surprise push is something to consider. Not to bet the farm on, but playing it ‘safe’ could just mean you’ve written yourself out of the following year when your near-competitors may get even tougher than the last year.

      if you’ll excuse the hockey reference for a moment, look at those goddamn new jersey devils. you could have argued at a few points this season that with an aging brodeur and underachieving top forward, they might have given more consideration to being sellers of guys like Parise and so forth. instead…they kept their hand in the game and now look…..i won’t be surprised if they take the whole thing…as crazy as that may end up being.

      you can’t run a team purely on economics and ‘good’ business. if there was a road map that could be followed it would be a helluva boring/frustrating exercise.

  11. I shudder to think what this team would be without EE. That said – I don’t think he’ll be extended until AA sees a lot more of him this season. So far he’s actually been pretty solid at 1st – and if he keeps hitting then it would be great to keep him there at least for the next couple years because his bat certainly plays at that spot in the lineup when things are going good. This is especially true when you consider a weak FA pool at that position this year.

    I think Willingham’s deal is too high to use as a good comparator. Willingham has 16.3 Career WAR since 2006. EE has 8. I’m not sure he’ll make a LOT less than Willingham, but I don’t see him as an automatic for the same dollars… although – if he plays the way he has this year for a full season, it could change things dramatically in his favor.

    • If you’re smart you’re paying for a what a player is going to do not what he’s done. I know it doesn’t always work out that way but don’t forget Willingham had 2 seasons of OPS decline and was about to turn 33. A few years ago he might have been able to get more but a lot of teams aren’t paying guys what they used to for those age years and with good reason.

      EE is 4 years younger and his stats are on an upswing.

      • The youth on EE’s side is something to consider for sure – and like I said, if EE continues to rake in 2012 then there is a serious case to be made for a deal a lot like Willingham’s.

        I would argue that case is hard to make at this point in the season – encouraging as EE’s season has been to date. Willingham had some relatively productive seasons. From 2006 to now he’s OPS’d :
        .852
        .827
        .834
        .863
        .848
        .810.

        I’m just saying that Ed hasn’t really been close to that except his 2006 season when he OPS’d .831. Since then not so much until this season in a small but impressive sample of 200ABs. He definitely has age to his advantage. But if we’re talking extension right now then I don’t see him getting Willingham money.

  12. if a team friendly deal can be had then yes. remember that he has the same agent as Yescobar.

    if the price and years start to creep up then offer arbitration. 12 million not bad for a one year deal. if he walks, the extra picks have a lot of value in the current cba era.

    book it!

  13. The other thing to factor in here is if he eclipses the 30 HR (likely) and 40 HR (possible) thresholds.

    Forget the rest of the stats. If he hits 40 HR I guarantee he eclipses Josh Willingham’s contract.

  14. Any chance he stays for a “hometown discount”?

    • Considering AA has never really signed anyone to a poor multiyear contract (Lind may have worked out poorly, but it was a great risk to take at the time), I’d guess he gets him at what we would consider a good price…or he walks away.

  15. I guess the question for me is this;

    Is Edwin just making a free-agency push (and will he let his new-found work ethic slide once he gets paid)?

    If we think that he’s truly gotten it together, and won’t buttslide once he has security, then great – sign, sign, sign.

    Maybe I’m a Doubting Marcus, but I’m not all-the-way convinced that this isn’t just ‘play-for-pay”. Color me happy for this year, but skeptical in the hereafter.

  16. Fairservice deserves a Pulitzer for “…the artist formerly known as E5.”

  17. The Aaron Hill and Adam Lind contracts lurk as reasons to be cautious. Don’t fall in love with this guy, he will fall just as he rose. EE looks like a tradable commodity in August as the Jays may start their slide now – Texas, Baltimore, and Red Sox coming up.
    Let some other team overpay for him. Just think of EE with a big fat $14M annual contract bating .189 with 3 HR’s by June 1, 2013. Bye bye EE

  18. The main factor to me is why let him get to free agency and have someone put a price on him the Jays aren’t willing to match? If you can lock him up ahead of time where you’re the only offer it seems like the smart thing to do. They out of all the clubs will know what he’s like and how he’s changed.

    Going forward you have to look at what’s out there in terms of free agents. People say DH’s are so easy to come by and while sticking a body there might be the case, getting a productive one isn’t always the case. Looking at the 2013 free agents, there’s not a lot out there that merit an offer that aren’t on their way to being over the hill or those that have sub par bats to begin with. Then there’s the added dimension of actually having to get a player to agree to play in Toronto. Tell me, is it going to be harder to get a guy to come to the city for the first time or someone that’s already happy and comfortable here?

  19. i was floored by the realization that EE is only 29. I thought he was older than bautista.

    as long as he keeps up the production of the last 1.5 years overall, and they’re no longer required to play him at 3rd, it looks promising.

    i do kind of like the possible versatile options the jays may be looking at:

    d’Arnaud – C or 1B
    Gomes – so far has seemed playable at 1B or 3B. at least as a backup/bench guy. Bat doesn’t seem half bad off the bench either. Feel a bit better about him than Thames given the versatility.
    EE – Seems playable at 1B. I would scream blue murder at any further 3B appearances, but 1B as a limited back up during injury/etc seems doable.

    not a bad bit of flexibility there. a longer term 2B/SS backup and outfield backup (that plays better than Thames and isn’t limited to just Rajai) would be pretty nice…

    and for gawd’s sakes…let’s dump Francisco and bring in anyone with a bit more use. Vizquel and Rajai seem to have some reasonable use…but everytime Francisco is in there its a real headscratcher…

  20. Past experience may not be applicable to what EE gets, maybe there was less competition for the comparable free agents?

    It seems to me that he’d be able to mash at least as well out in the NL West, and it’s a division that could sorely use a masher.

  21. What about flipping him to a contender at the deadline for a prospect then re-signing him in the offseason

  22. Hopefully, he considers his home/road splits when thinking about where to play.

    2012
    At Home .316/.409/.759 10HR
    Road .228/.270/.413 4HR

    2011
    Home .289/..353/.537 14HR
    Road .255/.314/.366 3 HR

    The man loves the Rogers Centre.

    • I call this Vernon Wells syndrome. You don’t realize how bad a player really is until he plays for another team.

      • In fact after taking a closer look, Edwin Encarnacion is replicating Vernon’s last season with the Jays:

        Vernon at home 2010 – .321/.363/.628
        Edwin at home 2012 – .316/.409/.759

        Vernon on the road 2010 – .227/.301/.407
        Edwin on the road 2012 – .228/.270/.413

        • There’s only a 50 pt ops difference between his career home and road splits. Josh Hamilton for instance has a difference of 110 pts.

  23. uh the difference between the tune of millions and millions of dollars….

  24. *being to the tune*

  25. Right now it’s looking like 2013 is going to be another “see what we have” year, with a ton of question marks, including some old faces as well as a new cast of characters:

    Hech
    Gose
    Hutch
    Rasmus
    Snider
    Gomes
    Thames
    Lawrie
    Jenkins
    McGuire
    D’Arnaud

    All of these guys should see the Show at some point next year even if they don’t break camp. And a few are out of options so they pretty much have to break camp or be given away for nothing—which means they will be starting at the MLB level for awhile, even if they suck (see: Reyes, Jo-Jo).

    Given the uncertainty and the need to give playing time to so many of these guys, I don’t see E5 getting any more than a “thanks for your services” from the Jays this winter. I think AA will argue that with so many question marks and gaping holes, spending $7M+ per season on a DH (who can kind of play 1B, but not really in the way most of us would like to see it played) is a luxury the Jays can’t really afford.

    I agree with those who recommend trading him at the deadline rather than losing him for nothing. It sucks to see him finally get good, after years of frustration (assuming he stays good—it’s equally likely, based on his past, that he goes 0 for the next 3 months and ends up with an OPS <.800) and then leave right away. But if we were even able to get a B+ prospect for him at the deadline (again, assuming he stays good until then at least), that's way more of a return than most of us would ever have predicted or even dreamed about a year ago when we were ready to let him go for nothing.

    The only way I can see them resigning him is if they trade Bautista, which might also be possible if he stays on track. If they maintain similar numbers the argument could be made that you're keeping the younger, cheaper guy who will probably put up similar offense in future and be equally useless on defense (I'm of the opinion that Bautista should never be allowed near the outfield). Personally, I would trade both.

    • The problem with trading a rental player at the deadline now thanks to the new CBA is you’re pretty much going to get jack squat in return. If we’re supposed to be building on the base we have here and not constantly auditioning new young players then EE is a guy you need to sign. It’s funny how people complain about the Jays not spending money (not saying you per say) and when it comes time to lock up a guy that looks to have found it then it’s forget about it.

      As for the young players themselves, unless we’re talking super premium high end no fail prospects a lot of those guys are most likely going to struggle or regress for a couple of years as we’re seeing with Lawrie and Thames. Are you seriously saying we should wait another 2 years or so until all those guys are hopefully ready before we spend money?

      • “It’s funny how people complain about the Jays not spending money (not saying you per say) and when it comes time to lock up a guy that looks to have found it then it’s forget about it.”

        Umm, that’s precisely why you can’t go lock up Encarnacion. If I had confidence in Rogers’ ability to spend money and eat bad contracts, sure, give him Willingham’s contract right now. But when you suggest giving a market value deal to a guy who is 6 weeks into a decent season I have to scratch my head, considering what we know about AA being a value whore.

        • NYJ nailed it.

        • It’s not just 6 weeks I’m including from June on when he stopped having to play 3rd base and worry about his fielding. He’s been a totally different player since then.

          EE’s contract is the type Rogers is more than happy to pay for. It’s not the epic Wells or Fielder type and if they sign him sooner rather than later there’s far more chance for the extra value that AA craves because it will be cheaper to sign him now than compete with all the other teams come the winter. Again look at the list of players who are available. Tell me where you’ll get the same production for decent value out of that group.

      • I’m all for spending money. I would have made a serious run at Fielder (not 9/214 serious) and maybe Darvish (again not 6/125 or whatever he got).

        This isn’t the universe the Jays play in. They’re dumpster divers. Spending $7M on a DH is way too much of a “win now” move and AA has been pretty clear that that won’t happen until the team is ready. I’m just pointing out that AA will be able to come up with plenty of reasons to say the team isn’t ready in 2013, just like he did in 2012.

        I don’t agree with that, but that being the case, they should trade both E5 and Bautista while they still have value. Try to get prospects close to the majors so they line up with the timelines of most of our young guys (e.g. Lawrie, Hutch, D’Arnaud etc.).

        I don’t agree that they’ll get jack squat at the deadline. Adding a 30-40 HR bat for August through the playoffs is highly, highly valuable to any team that is on the cusp and/or has injuries. You won’t see hauls like in the past where you could go through a team’s entire minor league system and circle your top 5 names, that is true. But I don’t think one top prospect is too much to ask for half a season of a top hitter—again, assuming E5 still fits that bill by July.

        Put it another way: if we were second, two games out of the division lead, on July 30, and let’s say the Rangers were out of contention, would you trade Gose for two months of Josh Hamilton? I sure as fuck would. Flags fly forever. Not saying E5=Hamilton, but you get the idea.

        • Teams value their prospects far more than they ever did before. You’re not going to get anywhere close to what you used to for 2 months. As you’ve all said EE doesn’t have the track record of say a player like Beltran and even then the Giants caught huge flack for giving up Wheeler.

          From the sounds of it you’re talking about waiting another 2-3 years until all our prospects make the bigs and turn out to be superstars instead of adding them in where needed and when they are ready to the talent they have in place like most other clubs do. I say fuck that. If paying common players like Frasor or Coco 4 million a year for 60 innings worth of contributions or paying EE 7-8 million a year I’m going to take EE every damn time. This team will spend but it obviously isn’t going to go down the epic contract route. The contract I see for EE is far from that.

          • EE has been really productive at the plate for a while now and he is OK ar first (not great). Problem is that we have seen his ugly downside not so long ago. I would like to keep him, but in Toronto we too often get treated like a second class outfit by the players. Don’t overpay him and keep him, then OK…anything else then lets see what we can get

          • But track record and potential future performance matter so much less when you’re talking about a 3-month rental. If we trade EE in July the other team doesn’t care whether he can repeat his monster season next year. They only care that he stays hot for another couple months.

            Would you do the hypothetical Gose-for-Hamilton trade I mentioned upthread? I’m pretty sure every baseball fan I know would do that deal. Even if we get something less than an Anthony Gose, that’s still a pretty amazing return for a guy who most of us (myself included) as recently as a year ago never wanted to see play baseball again.

            Personally, I agree with you that continually being in wait-and-see mode is dumb. It’s like playing whack-a-mole honestly because for every hole you fill somewhere (a prospect comes up and is awesome, or someone like E5 breaks out) another one opens up somewhere else (Romero starts to suck, Bautista struggles, Rasmus struggles, Thames struggles, Lind/Cecil/McGowan/Litsch suffer career-ending injuries/shittiness, etc.).

            However, this is the path our GM has chosen, or at least been forced to take because ownership won’t spend. I think the idea is that within the next few years (I would say more like 3-4, given how rare it is for even the best prospects to straight up kill it in MLB without struggling for a year or two first), there will be so many players/prospects at similar stages of development that we manage to plug almost all of the holes at the same time. Then if we really really need one more piece, that’s when we go get the rental player.

            Frasor and Coco (as well as Oliver) aren’t a good comparison because 1) they’re on one-year contracts, not multi-year deals that could fuck us in the future a la Hill, Wells, Lind; and 2) they were also acquired solely for the purpose of being dealt at the deadline. Please don’t believe the spin about shoring up the bullpen for this season (like that’s worked anyway). The idea was to spend the last few million of AA’s budget allocation, since we couldn’t get a player who would actually help us in future, to acquire some potentially valuable trade chips. The thought is you really only pay $2.5M of the $4M owed each of these guys anyway, and you get a prospect back. So it’s basically like buying another first-rounder for $2.5M, only the prospect you get is closer to the majors than actually drafting a guy this year.

        • I don’t think the Jays can try another rebuilding year in 2013.
          If Baltimore gets to the playoffs before the Jays we will be a laughingstock of the AL East.

    • They won’t trade bautista & will probably resign Edwin. I suspect Hech or Escobar will play 2B in 2013.

  26. Jays should sign Ortiz on a 1 year next year and form the Dominican Triumvirate of Power with Bautista/EE/Big Papi.

  27. Assuming it gets to that point, I think Anthopoulos would make the $12 mil. (approx.) qualifying offer.

    • I think AA learned his lesson about making those kinds of offers after KJ accepted arb.

      Also, don’t see Rogers signing off on that much of an increase in payroll.

      • He made the KJ offer because he was ok with either scenario. He may have preffered the draft picks, but the one-year deal was very palatable.

        I guess I meant that if EE hits 40 hr and finishes with an OPS north of .900 I think AA will make the offer. A BIG if, I knnow.

        Increase in payroll? There are a lot of moving parts in the offseason.

      • Are you suggesting that KJ accepting arbitration was bad for the Jays?

        • Bad how? In terms of winning more games this year, definitely not.

          In terms of AA’s plans, definitely yes. AA’s plan was never to win this year. It was to stockpile draft picks while he still had the chance. Valbuena was signed to be the starter at 2B, and everyone knew he would be shit, but he was willing to sign for nothing and we would have gotten two picks out of it.

  28. I’d trade EE now, before he turns back in to a pumpkin

  29. Encarnacion has actually been an All-Star at every level he’s played at, minus the majors. Maybe he’s just 7 seasons late on reaching his full potential or somethin. The risk is definitely pretty high on resigning him long term, but if he is for real you pretty much gotta lock him up before he hits the market.

  30. I say the Jays extend Eric Thames.

    -Eric Thames

    • AA: Hey Eric, you will be getting a call from your agent, but I thought I would like to be the first to announce our extension offer.
      THAMES: Holy shit, I am getting an extension?
      AA: Yes, we are extending you an offer, do you like the window seat or an aisle seat?
      THAMES: Huh?
      AA: Your flight to Vegas leaves tomorrow morning. Let me know of our extension offer by 5 p.m. We’re flying you with Air Canada, and those fucking union service reps get coffee breaks at 5. After that, its a bitch to get any customer service.

  31. “D’d FA” please.

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