I’m certain that the well educated readers of DJF wouldn’t pay the thought any more mind than it deserves, but it appears that among the less ardent members of Blue Jays Nation, a vocal minority is suggesting that Toronto’s Major League Baseball team follow up with the Boston Red Sox on rumours as to the availability of one Kevin Youkilis.

I assume these are the same people who expect Vladimir Guerrero to be an impact bat for the team. For whom, I have these words of advice: Live in the now, man.

Never mind the potential hesitancy for general managers to pull the trigger on an intradivisional swap of assets, such theoretical dealings are not going to occur. No, it has nothing to do with the possible ill will between Youkilis and pitchers Drew Hutchison and Francisco Cordero. Nor is the unlikelihood of Youkilis in royal blue associated with the emergence of looks-good-in-small-samples David Cooper.

Kevin Youkilis will not be a member of the Toronto Blue Jays because, to date, almost every transaction that the front office under Alex Anthopoulos has made would indicate that they’re not stupid. And it would be stupid for a team in the Blue Jays’ situation to give up anything of value for the opportunity to dress a declining Youkilis while paying him the rest of the $12 million he’s owed for the remainder of this season in addition to either a $1 million buyout of his 2013 option, or an additional $13 million to suit up next year.

Again, that’s before even considering that in order to acquire Youkilis for a playoff drive, they would most likely have to pay a premium to the division rival Red Sox, thus handing their opposition a boost to their playoff chances and potentially equaling by addition.

The main reason this won’t happen is because of this (via FanGraphs):

In this case, “this” is Kevin Youkilis’ weighted on base average, which peaked in 2010, and has been on a steady decline ever since to the point where it is now below the blue line which represents an average wOBA. For those not in the know, wOBA is, in my opinion, the best way to measure offensive contribution under one metric, as it combines all the different aspects of hitting (from getting hit by a baseball to hitting a home run), weighting each in proportion to their actual run value.

Put simply, acquiring Kevin Youkilis isn’t acquiring the Kevin Youkilis we might think of when we hear the name Kevin Youkilis. No, acquiring Kevin Youkilis is more like reacquiring last year’s Adam Lind to play first base for this year’s Toronto Blue Jays.

Okay, well maybe not that bad, as Youkilis’ true talent is probably slightly above what his wOBA currently suggests, but as a hitter, he certainly has more in common with the numbers put up by last year’s Lind than 2010′s version of himself.

Thanks, but no thanks.

Comments (101)

  1. Even if the Jays were remotely interested there’s no way the Sox would trade him to a division rival where he could possibly help bury them even more. The Boston media would have a field day with that.

    But yeah…nobody in their right mind is going to consider Youk in Toronto as an option.

    • The stance of not trading in your own division is going to soften now that there are two wild card slots. You are competing against all the teams in the AL for those two spots so not trading within your own division is not going to save you from facing the player you traded in important games. The only way to do that would be to trade the player to the other league, and even then, starting next year, you might have to face that guy a few times.

      I think you take the best deal you can get no matter what team it is with.

  2. Plus, you know, PUKEEEEEEEE

    • Yeah that dirty beard is disgusting. Can you imagine how much food is in there?

      • Stoeten’s Beard (sufficiently epic as to deserve capitalization as a proper noun) would eat that pathetic chin rag for breakfast, shit it out by noon and bitch that it was starving by the time lunch came around.
        Beard cannibalism. That’s what the internet has come to.

      • jeepers karen, whats with the facial hair fascination last night and today? i take it you like a clean shaven man, non smoker who loves the jays with a few hard liqoured drinks. and from this profile i would assume you are under 50 with short highlighted hair who is medium to high management or entrepeneur who wears glasses to see long distances and loves the colour red.hahaha and IQ in the 128 -130 range. im close to a mexican hairless, dont drink and smoke with piecing hazel eyes with a IQ of 126.

  3. ZiPS has a rest-of-season projection of a .360 wOBA for Youk. Yeah, I think you may be going a bit too far with the Lind comparison.

    • That performance over half a season (even with nil defensive value) is worth like 50% more than Youkilis’ salary. I don’t want him, personally, but using that projection, you could justify giving up a C prospect for him and then paying the buyout unless he catches fire.

      But there is no way the Massholes take a C-prospect from the Jays for their Greek God of Walks… but maybe from Kenny Williams…

  4. Also because I don’t want to look at the stupid face he makes during his stupid batting stance, sweating like a pig, just standing there at the plate.

  5. Thank fuck too. If he became a Blue Jay, I may have considered becoming a Masshole fan.

  6. I don’t want him, but he does not deserve to be compared to Lind.

  7. I’m glad you said ALMOST every transaction that the front office under Alex Anthopoulos has made would indicate that they’re not stupid, because that Mike Napoli for Frank Francisco trade was a fail of epic proportions.

    • There’s always one. But if that’s all the ammunition we have against Anthopoulos, I feel good.

      • McGowan extension? Anyone? Maybe not the wisest decision to extend an injury prone… ok constantly injured… ok living in Dunedin on a permanent basis with Hawkeye Trapper and Frank constantly in tow wisecracking at each other… pitcher unnecessarily for three years. Even if it was cheap. And he’s a good dude/story… And I have a running bet that he’ll have a more successful career than marcum with an ex roommate (And I’m not paying til they both have officially retired, and even then I’m using birddawg’s AMEX)

    • Imagine if it had been Lind for Francisco…

    • looks bad in the short term but remeber that Franscisco had a pretty mean 2nd half and his compensation for when the Mets signed him is the pick used to drdt Matt Smoral.

    • It would be a failure (that’s the word you’re looking for, not “fail”) of epic proportions if Napoli would have gotten the Jays to the playoffs last year, or this year. Would he have done that? Not a chance. Added a win or two? Possibly.

    • I don’t get how people say that. Napoli for Francisco made sense at the time. No, it doesn’t look good now, but NOBODY was expecting Napoli to do what he did last year. It was in no way a ‘stupid’ move…hindsight is always 20/20. Napoli till that point was basically who Aren Cibia is now.

      • Exactly right. Made sense at the time. Napoli was not a great player before last season and there was no obvious fit for him on the Jays’ roster for 2012. It’s really easy to criticize that deal now, but I bet a lot of those “told ya so” people didn’t attack that trade at the time. And if they did, they probably attacked a lot of AA’s good trades, too, but won’t admit that now.

        AA got rid of Wells’ contract a week before. I’m not complaining.

      • well lets see how this smoral kid does in the next handful of years before any sane person passes judgement on this deal. I believe the 50th pick was comp for FF….

  8. I could see him going to the White Sox because Kenny Williams is just cool enough to spoil a surprising season like that

  9. I would seriously consider renouncing my 30 year fan-dom of the Blue Jays should this unlikely, and devastatingly sickening proposition come to fruition.

  10. AA looks at everybody, so he’d inquire here, but I tend to agree that the current, broken iteration of Youkillis is not really a fit.

  11. He’s too “scruffy and scrappy” for our cool blue uniforms… except the grey-on-grey.

    • What is the grey on grey people keep talking about? Do you mean just grey jerseys / grey pants?

      • If you go to 2:12pm in the comments of this post, it will explain a lot.

      • That’s my fault.
        I commented in an earlier post, a friend of mine has been charting the Jays uniforms and their success ratios in the different colour combos.
        Sort of an extension of the plethora of stats available.He’s a uniwatch.com guy and has a lot of time on his hands.In the spreadsheet,that included pie charts,it included a ton of stats for every game in 2012. The win % by uniform was one. Made me laugh,so I shared it with DJF.
        Grey on grey refers to grey jerseys and grey pants.
        Blue on grey is blue jerseys and grey pants.Also white on white and blue on white.
        Best combo as of May 31st was blue on white,worst was blue on grey.
        Is uniform combo a better indicator than WAR?
        Wait to the end of the season.Small sample size up to now.

        • Because baseball doesn’t have enough stats :-)

          • Hi Karen.

            But it makes it easier for old farts like me.
            Already in THIS comment section ,talk of the value of wOBA vs wRC+ vs WAR in projections of a players value.Soon somebody will mention ISO,fWAR,rWAR and Pythag wins.When we get to Park Factors by Handedness,I start to drool on myself.
            Makes my head spin (remember I’m old).
            Much easier to forecast by uniform colour instead of all this math.
            Screw the stats,tell me what he’s wearing,I’ll tell you how he’ll do.

          • Hi RADAR,

            I forgot to ask if you’re coming to the wedding. Oh, and does birddawg know that I put the down payment on my new house on his AMEX?

          • Ya Boudreau,I’ll be there,with bells on.
            Literally,bells on.
            I’m still hiding from birddawg, so I’ll be there incognito.
            I’m dressing as Lulu’s half sister from Albania.That way I don’t have to shave my mustache or armpits.
            I hope Lulu likes seamen ( a customer of hers says she does) cause I bought a yacht with birdawg’s AMEX as a wedding gift.
            Gotta love that “no spending limit” policy of AMEX.

        • Mmmmmm, pie charts.

  12. “Steady decline” is a bit misleading here. He was down last year, but 2 months of this year is hardly enough to present it as a full sample size as you have done here. you could have made the same claim about David Ortiz from 2007 to the first 2 months of 2010 (an extra year of decline over what youk has shown) and he’s been pretty damn good since.

    Don’t let confirmation bias (old bad body player=steep aging curve) make you present 2 months of 2012 data in a trend with previous full season data to prove your point. Youkilis may be done, but a year and 2 months of a banged up player isn’t evidence of that.

    You can probably make a pretty good case that youk isn’t worth the money and loss of assets anyhow (which i’d agree with) but the data you worked with here definitely isn’t enough to convince me he’s done.

    • I agree with everything you said here.

      While I agree that Youkilis is not coming to Toronto, he makes a nice buy low opportunity for someone considering he likely won’t cost anything other than taking on his contract.

      A .360 wOBA the rest of the season seems realistic to me.

  13. Not to mention that he’s an asshole( but he is) so that should factor in somewhere. Perhaps on an asshole graph.

  14. Also, he has a dirty whorish mouth…Canada wouldn’t appreciate that..it’s science.

  15. Not to mention we just threw a bunch of baseballs at his head…

  16. Greek God of Walks!

  17. 2005-2010 Youk, yes. Current Youk, aging badly, declining predictably, no.

  18. It’s too bad you even had to write this article.

  19. Bald, sweaty, ugly fucker who smells like old cheese. Who would he hang with in the clubhouse?

  20. “For those not in the know, wOBA is, in my opinion, the best way to measure offensive contribution under one metric, as it combines all the different aspects of hitting (from getting hit by a baseball to hitting a home run), weighting each in proportion to their actual run value.”

    Why not wRC+? I guess you could make the argument that wRC+ is just wOBA on a different scale, but if you use Fangraphs then wRC+ is surely better because it is park and league adjusted. (I’m not sure if other sites adjust wOBA for park and league effects.)

    • Answer: WRC+ graphs aren’t on fangraphs player page, meaning Parkes would have to create his own graph.

      • Hmmm…I actually thought they did have wRC+ graphs but you are right, they don’t.

        I’m surprised because even aside from the park and league adjustments, wRC+ is on a much more accessible scale.

        • Not everybody prefers the hundred scale. Personally, I just don’t care though. Either one works, just be clear about whether park and league ajustments have been made.

    • Yeah, I would rather use wRC+ too but that’s mostly because you REALLY need to adjust for park and league when looking at Las Vegas’s numbers. I also find it’s easier to take a quick look and see how good a guy is because, for example, a 120 wRC+ is basically a guy that is 20% better than league average.

      • I agree and I think it’s still pretty important for somewhere like Fenway. Although, if I’m not mistaken, I think that even wRC+ doesn’t take into account how a particular player is favoured by a park.

        Looking at Youkilis’s home/road splits, it seems likely that Fenway is particularly kind to him.

    • why not rbi’s

  21. Youk is groosssssyyy

  22. I’ll take SSS Cooper over the shitty numbers Lind and Overbay put up at their worst. Everybody on here is smart enough to realize Cooper hasn’t done it long so we’re not gonna write his Cooperstown plaque just yet, but since last fall he has been solid. I don’t know why you have to go out of your way to constantly shit on Coop. Guy has been passing the eye test for sure in recent games.

  23. more importantly, Youk would lower the Jays average physical attractiveness by at least 1.1 WAR, eventually turning away straight female and gay male Jays fans, which would then lead to less ticket and merchandise sales, which would lead to Rogers reducing the team payroll and eventually folding up the franchise.

    This same thing happened with Marquis Grissom and the Expos

  24. we could have had the Y team

    Yunel
    Yan
    Youk

  25. Lol…. “The same people who think Vladimir Guerrero will be an impact bat”

    You’re so smug… when has Vladimir Guerrero ever not been an impact bat? Go look at his career numbers… INCLUDING LAST YEAR. He’s better than 80% of the hitters on this team in his worst statistical season. Get a clue you fat fuck

    • Umm.
      I don’t think you could accuse Parkes of being fat.But otherwise point taken.

    • And the only reason he had even a remotely decent season last year was because he mashed in september against a weak schedule and shitty call up pitching.
      I love Vladdy, but he’s old and slow. Impact player off the bench, maybe, but how much value (beyond his “veteran presence on the bench”) did Matt Stairs have? I would suggest we’d be lucky in Vlad can replicate that to this team.

      • Just looked it up. Vlad was not an impact bat last year. He was an average bat. precisely average. As in a 100 OPS+, 0 rWAR, 0.1 oWAR (baseball-reference), 0 fWAR, 95 wRC+ (fangraphs)
        He was the 6th best hitter in the OriLOLes lineup.
        Bench player, sure. Injury filler? Why not.
        But impact player.
        Fuck No/

  26. on a seperate note, my all time second favorite pitching matchup happens tonight:

    Wang vs Dickey

    My all time favourite matchup was when Wand pitched against david bush

  27. Don Mossi, Pascual Perez, Eziquel Astacio… Otis is a Ken doll compared to those mugs.

  28. Listening to Bill Simmons on the BS report makes it sound like the defensive requirements and physical toll playing 3rd is compared to 1st on his body is affecting his game offensively. A trade would be best for Youkilis for any team that will DH or play him at first. However Toronto is a 3rd place team and not a wild card or playoff team and should not be trading for him. The Jays should stand pat and let the Lind Cooper EE Guerrero combination play out at 1B and DH for the season

    • The Jays should stand pat and let the Lind Cooper EE Guerrero combination play out at 1B and DH for the season

      The Lind combination is playing in Vegas for the season thanks.

  29. Didn’t we already do the Kevin Millar thing once?

  30. Youchhhhh.

    That’s all we need. Another has-been ex-Red-Sock.

  31. The guy who is always bitching and moaning about small sample size is telling people to “Live in the now”.

    Priceless.

  32. No way I’d want to see Kevin Youkilis in a Jays uni. Ever. Keep that greasy goatee away!

    As for Vlady, 63 RBI’s is an impact bat for a guy his age, and he certainly was one (minus his legs/knees) with Baltimore. Give me 35-45 RBIs in a Jays uniform, which I think is completely achievable for him, and I’m good. I don’t even need to see the HR’s. We don’t have any problems hitting them, and it’s not like we’ll be getting them from Adam Lind or David Cooper either. Vlady’s been a clutch hitter in every big league season he’s played.

    • I think that for this kind of sample size (Vladdy’s time in a Jays uniform), you might be better off using OPSBIs (Bowden copyright 2011).

  33. I think AA would do a trade for Youkilis only if he hated his job.

  34. Everyone here is an anti-semite.

  35. No thanks, we already have enough whiny pusses who go into great theatrics over the smallest slight from an inside pitch or from the umpires. Plus, Youk is on a rapid decline.

  36. This post=”This guy has been great for his whole career, but since he had a shitty April this year he must now be terrible.”

    Do I actually think the Jays will acquire Youk? Probably not, for all the interdivision reasons mentioned above. But do I think, at age 33, he could still provide what this team is sorely lacking (a mashing 1B who gets on base) if the price is right? Maybe. We all thought Ortiz was done at 33 too. And you weren’t going to get him for cheap when he was a 29 year-old MVP candidate signed long-term.

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