Top Dog: Carlos Villanueva, 30.5%
The Worst: Jose Bautista, -4.3%
Top Bat: Rajai Davis, 7.0%
Impact AB: Adam Lind 2B, Bot 3, 8.9%
Impact Pitch: Betancourt 4-6-3 DP, Top 7, 8.5%
Highest Leverage AB: Bautista Bases Loaded K, Bot 2, 2.47
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Betancourt GIDP, Top 7, 1.72
Lineup Contribution: 12.0%
Pitching Contribution: 37.9%
Average Leverage Index: 0.78
Chart explanation

Carlos Villanueva: 6 innings, 4 hits, 7 K’s, 0 runs. Never in doubt.

The lineup: Workman-like. Unexciting. Victorious.

(WPA data courtesy Baseball Reference)
(Idea for a post game graph courtesy Lookout Landing)

Comments (40)

  1. what — lind had an impact at bat in the #5 slot — well still, farrell is dumb for moving him up because I say so…..and because that stat is a small sample size and managers don’t make a difference except when they move a shitty player up to the 5 hole….no matter how you slice it, farrell was still dumb for doing it right?

    • I’d find taking your shit a lot easier if you’d demonstrated that you understood what you’re talking about.

      • I actually thought putting Lind in the 5 wasn’t the worst idea ever. So long as Kelly Johnson is going to be the worst baseball player ever (non JPA class) he just murders us at the 5. Escobar is okay there, but I’m pretty sure Lind has shown more power in his few games back than the entire 5-9 has in the past month. So long as they all continue to suck I don’t have a problem with Farrell tossing Lind there if he likes the matchup. So long as its not against lefties…

        • I have no issue with lind in the 5 hole,
          i’d say of all of our options outside of our 1 – 4 hitters, he’s the most likely to drive the ball somewhere

          • You just swap them back if they return to their respective prior forms. There is no great option for that spot unless you start mucking with 1-4.

            Question for Stoeten or other expert – in a typical order, does the #5 spot often have a higher aLI than #4?

  2. Of course, Frenchy’s triple wasn’t really a triple. More like a single reaching third on Davis’s error.

    Anyway, yeah, it was an unexciting game that smelled like a victory. Aside from the GIDP anyway. That was just awesome.

    Again, I really do like this post-game graph thingymabob.

  3. These graphs are ideal for the “morning dump” crowd. Please keep pushing these out.

    • I have my morning dump much, much earlier…and I am on the west coast!

      These Score bloggers need to get their ass out of bed earlier and get the fuck to work.

      C’mon slackers!

  4. Weird game jays usually lose those ones… Interesting to see Dyson a lot off positive info from his team mates…

  5. Love the graph and the table. Keep em’ coming.

  6. Fangraphs generates these WPA graphs on-the-fly as the game progresses and they look nicer there than they do here…

  7. that game really made me wonder why we don’t see tagging up and running more often from the jays.

    but i guess its because they have a strong tendency to get 2 outs before getting anyone on base.

  8. I don’t get this graph. When do I get a start?

  9. Oh, Aaaaaaaaaah-chie!

  10. “Workman-like. Unexciting. Victorious” – these kinds of wins are exactly the ones that pave the way to the pennant.

  11. These graphs are awesome. Love it.

  12. 2011 Ray is desperately trying to warn 2012 Ray about the consistency Carlos Villanueva’s performance after a few starts. Unfortunately, 2012 Ray just watched Jesse Fucking Chavez pitch for 3 weeks and doesn’t want to listen.

  13. *consistency of
    Prepositions are for nerds anyway

  14. “Anthopoulos expects to pursue pitching depth outside of the organization to help take pressure off an offense that has carried the team of late, thanks to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. “

  15. My read of the chart is it shows the 7th wasn’t a sufficiently important spot to use one of the only 3 guys you trust in a close game?

  16. It was a weird feeling to not have any doubt about this win the whole time Carlos Villanueva was in there. The only time i got worried was after Davis’ blunder….I figured that would get Cordero up (would only be fitting to watch him get lit up on a day known for fireworks)

  17. Man that Bautista, what a slacker.

  18. Unexciting… I don’t know… I find getting to home base exciting no matter how it happens :)

  19. Another game where our “closer” pitches in the lowest leverage situation of the game. Good thing he got that SAVE though.

    • You can only say its the lowest leverage situation in hindsight. If Royals score a couple in the 8th, having your best bullet saved to close out the game is suddenly really important.

    • 10 pitch 1-2-3 inning against the 4-5-6 hitters isn’t really anything to scoff at.

      • What are you talking about? I would’ve pissed my pants if we hadn’t had Casey ready for the ninth; especially when Frasor let in that run. You probably shouldn’t always pitch your best reliever in the 9th, but like Dos Equis beer, its often a good idea.

  20. This is a freaking awesome thread…keep it up for EVERY game. Maybe do the Tigers too? Asking too much? I know, my bad…

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