Top Dog: Brett Cecil, 11.1%
The Worst: J.A. Happ, -17.5%
Top Bat: Travis Snider, 6.7%
Worst Bat: Colby Rasmus, -11.2%
Impact AB: Travis Snider Solo Shot, Bot 3rd, 10.6%
Impact Pitch: Derek Norris 2-Run HR, Top 2, -18.7%
Highest Leverage AB: Adam Lind 2-out 2-on Groundout, Bot 3, 1.96
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Jemile Weeks RBI 3B, Top 7, 1.42
Lineup Contribution: -32.2%
Pitching Contribution: -17.8%
Average Leverage Index: 0.73
Chart explanation

It’s funny because at the beginning people were like “If Cecil pitches poorly Happ might take his spot.” and now it’s more like “I hope I never see J.A. Happ again in my whole life.”

Cecil had 8 k’s. Oakland is 52-44. Nothing makes any sense.

(WPA data courtesy Fangraphs)
(Idea for a post game graph courtesy Lookout Landing)

Comments (45)

  1. Seriously? You are going to hang this on Happ? The fucking guy does not know where he fits. Farrell comes out and says he will use him in long relief and had pitched in exclusively in short. AA says he will for the time being go to the pen. WTF? This is the exact opposite of what the Jays did with Morrow. Fucking give him a role and stick with it. I’m pissed.

    • Not hanging the whole thing on Happ. He had the lowest WPA on the team last night, which is what this post represents.

      • Farell should have gone to Oliver in a one-run game and, had he not wanted to use him pre-8th, he should have stuck with Cecil.

        Bullpen management to fail.

        • If Beck hadn’t given up the triple to Weeks with 2-out there’s a pretty good chance Happ doesn’t go on to give up the 4 extra runs.

        • Thing is Farrell likes using Oliver to hold on to leads, not to keep a game close when they’re down and it’s hard to fault that logic. When you’re down, you may or may not ever attain a lead, so if you burn Oliver in that situation you can’t use him the next game when you may actually need him to protect a real lead, instead of just the opportunity to potentially take a lead. I would tend to agree with him that it’s more important to have your best relievers available to hold onto a real live lead than use them to maintain the hope of a late game comeback.

          Doesn’t make it any easier to watch when it goes wrong though…

          • No that is wrong and it is false logic. Its also why the idea of a closer is borderline stupid. You should bring your best pitchers in in high leverage situations. Be that down by a run or a tie or holding on to a lead. Keeping a pitching to maybe hold a lead you might never get only appears to make sense. The idea is that keeping the game close can be just as valuable. This is one example where tradition routinly outshines what should be common sense. And, because they are just jocks and not critical thinkers, most baseball managers are stupid. I would hire a nerd to manage my team and make an ex-player my assistant coach.

      • Yeah fair enough. I was just hoping we could go on a 6 or 7 game win streak. Just can’t get that to happen.

    • On the one hand Happ did poorly and throwing the ball is throwing the ball. Get ‘er done and quit yer bellyachin’.

      On the other hand he came in to a game at home, with a new team, in a close game with a runner on and must have had some nerves or some such. He actually did nicely after he got that elusive out.

      Plus… SSS

  2. I’m not basing this off last night alone, and I haven’t looked at his stats yet, but it appears to me that Rasmus is falling back to the earth pretty hard.

    • .135 / .195 / .216 in 9 games since the All-star break.
      .200 / .321 / .415 in July.

      • Anyone know what his BABIP is over the same time? Or his BB and SO numbers? Just by the very unscientific eyeball test I feel like he’s still been putting balls in play pretty hard but not getting the same results he was. I mean he was bound to regress some, but it’s a pretty small sample size to draw conclusions from and could easily be explained by a bit of lousy luck.

        • Looked it up. Walking a lot more, striking out a lot more, and his BABIP for July is a whopping .208 with his FB% being the same as June, and his LD% going way up from 17% to 24.5%, which makes no sense, but is probably a case of a SSS.

        • Yeah he put a good swing on that DP ball where Lawrie got thrown out. And even on a few recent strikeouts he has gotten, I thought the pitch was pretty damn good (as in any batter would have trouble hitting it).

      • Well he is not going to get as many good pitches to hit with Jose out of the lineup. Plus, if he continued doing what he was doing, wouldnt that make him one of the best players in the world? I mean, he is good, but he was pretty much Babe Ruth there for a while.

        • His stance has changed I thought last night when watching Colby’s at bat. He is an more open stance than he was when he was tearing it up. Seems like he is trying ti compensate for the inside hole in his swing that some pitchers seemed to figure out.

  3. I agree, nothing makes sense. Billy Beane can build a better team on the fly in one off season than AA can do in three years. Our minor league organization is well regarded, at least.

  4. Blame the hitters, they didn’t score the obligatory 11 runs to win…


    Its a joke damit. :)

  5. Over here in the U.S., Big Gulps will soon not exist, When they ban drinks over 16 ounces, the idiots in congress think everyone will suddenly become thin

    • Don’t worry. I’m sure Americans will find other ways to stay fat. Maybe just order two Small Gulps?

      • Ya but the idea is that the necessity of having to order two will make people think twice about the amount of sugar they’re consuming. Putting two servings in one cup is a powerful psychological illusion that deludes people into thinking they’re only having “one soda” when in reality it’s not.

        It’s like pounding a couple of pitchers at the bar and then telling the cop that pulls you over that you “only had 2 beers”.

        Anyways… let’s talk about baseball!

    • I heard they were gonna ban t-shirts too. Which is pretty gay cause I have the right to bare arms.

    • Kinder Eggs are illegal in the US as well, but you can have all the guns you want. God bless America

  6. I’d love to see Happ get a start just so we can see what we’ve got going forward but who gets taken out of the rotation? I realize this is a strange thing to say with the shit we call starters but: Cecil pitched too well last night, Villaneuva is undefeated, Laffey deserves to stay for now, and taking out Rickey (though he deserves it) is just plain bad politics. Sorry but it’s Henderson to the pen-derson.

    • What? You bump Henderson so that we can see what Happ has? Why does he have to be a starter to see that? Plus, how many starts do you need in order to make an assessment of his skills? One? Five? The rest of the season?

      J.A. Happ is a serviceable placeholder arm. Maybe he’ll be marginally better than what the Jays have currently, but not a lot. He’s also nearly 30 years old, and is on the downslope of his career. More innings for guys like Alvarez is the way to go, because he could still potentially develop. Happ should be thought of as nothing more than an innings-eater on this team, which he didn’t do very well last night.

      • Relax tough guy. Henderson’s on an innings limit anyway. Happ’s a starter. I want to see him start. We’ve seen what Henderson can do. He doesn’t miss bats and gives up alot of long balls.

  7. Yeah I hope they put Happ into the rotation ASAP and stop messing around with bandaid starters and hopefully we bring in another legit starter. JJ a BJ sure sounds good.

  8. It’s a shame that Rasmus was close to catching that triple. I kept thinking that he’d maybe have laid out for it if the warning track wasn’t such an unforgiving pile of rubber.

  9. I still can’t get over how much AA gave away for Happ.

    Honestly, unless we were all over-hyping our own prospects (which happens), it seems as though this was a brutal trade all around.

    Put Wojo/Musgrove and more into a package for a better pitcher…

    What is the overall payroll implications (Frankie + Coco – Happ/Lyon).

    Payroll parameters move? Or team control a pitcher who will get trashed in the AL?

    • Jesus Christ. The Jays had to make their bullpen better. They made it way better and can now insert Happ into the penn (and despite last night hes an above average pitcher) or whoever comes out of the rotation makes the penn better. Whatever. The point is that they traded a whole bunch of nothing. Who the fuck cares? The team is better and AA is smarter than you. Fuck off.

      • I don’t know why you would assume that AA is smarter than anyone. He runs a baseball team, not a nuclear physics laboratory. Remember George Costanza?

        • Betcha the guy running a nuclear physics laboratory couldn’t run a baseball team though…

          Fever, if it was that simple, don’t you think he would have done it?

          “unless we were all over-hyping our own prospects”… we probably were. For the millionth time, Wojo is a 23 yr old college pitcher repeating High-A. Musgrove has thrown 30 innings between the GCL and rookie ball. While neither of those things preclude them from both being good prospects, it also gives things a lot of perspective. Wojo might end up being a major league reliever; Musgrove probably has overwhelming odds against him ever even making it.

          Happ’s performance out of the pen last night withstanding, I’m sure the brass see things in him and Carpenter that will provide value in the future

        • Facts from fiction always #win.

      • Simmer the fuck down, Fonz.

    • Have you noticed what teams are paying for pitching? Have you read what other GMs are saying about how hard it is to land pitching right now?

      Rather than release the Francisco’s and still have to pay them, the Jays got someone else to eat their salary. Then they traded some *potentially* good future players for some somewhat established players.

  10. And don’t forget the orioles are a contender too!


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