## Post Game Graph – A’s 4 @ Blue Jays 10

Top Dog: Brett Lawrie, 15.6%
The Worst: Aaron Laffey, -17.0%
Worst Bat: Omar Vizquel, -6.5%
Top Arm: Brandon Lyon, 12.4%
Impact AB: Edwin Encarnacion 3-Run HR, Bot 4, 25.0%
Impact Pitch: Brandon Inge 2-Run HR, Top 4, -19.0%
Highest Leverage AB: Lawrie Advances On Tommy Milone Wild Pitch To Colby Rasmus, Bot 6, 3.01
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Josh Reddick RBI Bases Loaded Fielder’s Choice, Top 5, 3.12
Lineup Contribution: 46.5%
Pitching Contribution: 3.4%
Average Leverage Index: 0.93
Chart explanation

Only 4.0 games out of the wild card!!

(WPA data courtesy Baseball Reference)
(Idea for a post game graph courtesy Lookout Landing)

1. Ouch. Can’t help but feel that’s kinda unfairly hard on Laffey lol I’m sure it’s just some statistical quirk (seeing as how I have no idea how this is calculated) because he was really pretty ok… But then again the bar has been lowered so far this year that it’s not real hard to step over…

• The way this works is pretty simple (even if the math is not). Based on historical evidence, at every point in the game each team has a certain probability that they will win. At the start it is 50/50. If a team is up by 10, their chance of winning is pretty close to 100%.

Each play affects this probability. If a hitter gets an out, your teams chance of winning goes down. Score a run, it goes up. Pretty easy.

• Didn’t mean to post that yet …

So basically, after each play, the player gets attributed for either increasing their chance of winning, or decreasing their chance of winning. When the game is tied, a pitcher giving up a run has a much bigger impact on the teams chance of winning then it does when the team is up or down by a lot of runs. That is why Laffey had such a negative WPA – all the runs he gave up were when the game was tied or close.

• Ah ok that does clarify it a lot. Still seems kind of harsh but I get how the higher leverage situations have more impact. But ya it’s not like AA is gonna go into contract negotiations and say “Aaron you definitely pitched above expectations and consistently gave us a chance to win when our rotation was in tatters. But on the other hand you were named “The Worst” on Archie Zuber’s Post Game Graph for your July 26th start against Oakland”. So ya…

2. Kind of shocking to see the Marlins give up and not win the world series this year. I mean, they bought some really expensive free agents (unlike those cheap rogers fucks). I thought when teams did that they always made the playoffs and usually won the world series? I thought it was a guaranteed formula for success? I mean, it’s obvious that until those cheap rogers fucks buys some really expensive free agents this team will always suck like Pittsburgh.

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