Top Dog: Brett Lawrie, 12.2%
The Worst: Aaron Laffey, -31.1%
Worst Bat: David Cooper, -8.3%
Impact AB: Brett Lawrie 2-run 2B, Top 3, 14.0%
Impact Pitch: Dustin Ackley Home Run, Bot 1, -11.0%
Highest Leverage AB: David Cooper 2-out Groundout, Top 3, 1.99
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Trayvon Robinson RBI Single, Bot 2, 1.44
Lineup Contribution: -14.0%
Pitching Contribution: -36.1%
Average Leverage Index: 0.50
Chart explanation

I’d like Jose Bautista back, please.

(WPA data courtesy Baseball Reference)
(Idea for a post game graph courtesy Lookout Landing)

Comments (61)

  1. Do you think Laffey has earned enough slack over his last few starts that he gets another start? Or is this it and we let Happ take over?

  2. Aaron Laffey and David Cooper the biggest contributors to a loss? WHO COULD HAVE SEEN THAT COMING!? Not that I had much hope for playoffs anyway, but man another meaningless August/September with a lineup filled in with fucking scrubs is depressing!

  3. I’m in the camp that doesn’t quite understand the recent moves made by AA, although to be honest, the Snider for Lincoln swap isn’t even top of the list.

    1) The 10 player trade: The Jays gave up a lot of mediocre for Happ and Lyon. Lyon is nearly a wash with Coco in my opinion, and whatever extra value he brings isn’t worth paying a prospect for. Francisco was an unnecessary throw in that could probably have netted a low level prospect himself. Happ isn’t terrible, and I don’t mind him sharing swing man/5th man duties with Carlos V, but it still seems like a big time overpay. I understand we needed pitching given injuries, but then, I also understand that the Braves signed Ben Sheets for nothing.

    2) I don’t mind the Lincoln for Snider swap as much as most. But it sure looks like they traded for Lincoln at the height of his value, and traded Snider away at near bottom. I just don’t see the harm in taking a wait and see approach until the end of the year and making a similar move then.

    3) Thames for Delabar. Who the fuck knows if Delabar will be worth anything in the pen, but he’s worth more than Thames who is worth nothing.

    All in all, we’ve added pieces that are usually reserved for teams that are putting the finishing touches on championship contending rosters. Ours is not such a team just yet.

    SS, 3B, CF, RF, C and DH (sometimes 1B) are sorted out for the near term. We still need:
    - 2B
    - 1B/DH (EE can play one or the other, but will likely need to be spelled at 1B at least some of the time).
    - LF

    It sure looks like the same pieces we were missing last offseason will be missing this offseason. Sticking with Lind has been the shit show we all knew it would be. Thames bombed like we all knew he would. Snider was given zero opportunity before he was traded. At LF, we now have Gose, Sierra, Davis, or an acquisition through trade/free agency to look forward to. I hope it is the latter.

    The Kelly Johnson for Aaron Hill trade is officially a loser for AA. It’s unclear whether KJ will be brought back, and nobody should really give a shit either way. He’s an adequate option if we can’t find a better one. And given the free agents hitting the market, I don’t see us finding a better one that way. Maybe AA can make a trade on this front, but it’s not really a glaring need given the strong hitting we have otherwise.

    The bullpen is solid at this point. Santos should be healthy again. Janssen is solid. Lincoln will hopefully keep it going. Oliver may retire and should have been traded to a WS contender, but we’ve got Perez coming back, and Happ does nice work against lefties. Delabar is a potentially interesting piece, but no sure thing to stick. You can put McGowan in the same category. Laffey would be a fine second coming of Brian Tallet, and Carlos V always does good work. Cecil should be in the mix here too. In my view, the bullpen is set, not to mention the simple truth that there are always guys available in free agency to round out a pen.

    The rotation is in shambles on the other hand. Romero was never a number 1, and we were lying to ourselves when we started to believe he was a 1B, or number 2. Romero is a solid number 3 pitcher, just like Ted Lilly was. And that is just fine for the way this team hits. So slot Romero and Morrow in there, and you need 3 more pitchers. Alvarez is fine as the fifth guy, in my opinion. He could improve, but he throws enough strikes to be a cheap and serviceable back end of the rotation starter. Expect nothing from Drabek.

    Without a true ace, we need multiple solid Romero types guys. We have 2 of them in Romero and Morrow. Morrow could be an ace, of course, but worst case, he’s a number 3. Where to find two more? Free agency:
    - Liriano
    - Anibal Sanchez
    - Greinke (true ace that the Jays won’t sign because he’ll cost too much and the pitcher will want to win)
    - Edwin Jackson?

    I don’t know. Signing both Liriano and Sanchez would make me pretty happy and be pretty affordable all things considered. With our hitting, we’d be contenders.

    • I never thought I’d be pining for Aaron Hill

    • I don’t think we’re as far away as you think.

      I don’t think any LFs will be avail in the off-season, so I expect Bautista to move there and Gose will slot in RF (or perhaps vice versa).

      Most teams have a garbage 2B anyways, so you might as well slot Hech in there and get good defense.

      That leaves us with finding a good DH. Boston is imploding. Ortiz is a FA. Buying Ortiz ought to be obvious.

      Our offense, as it stands, is already the best in MLB. Adding Ortiz would be make us a murderers row (that can’t take a walk, but hey, not every team can be the Yankees). And that lineup would be incredible on defense too.

      That leaves us with the aforementioned pitching problem.

      If you buy a starter in the offseason (Greinke?), you then have a rotation of:
      1) Greinke
      2) Morrow
      3) Romero
      4) The surprisingly effective Villanueva
      5) Alvarez

      With the potential for Hutchison, Happ, Laffey, McGowan, McGuire, and other free agents, to step in when everything goes to pieces. Drabek will be back from injury next August as well, and wasn’t awful.

      Thus it seems to me we are only two major pieces away from contending, and filler. More would be great, absolutely, but only two more pieces are absolutely necessary.

      • Your kidding yourself if you think the Jays are going to get Grienke or Ortiz.

        • Landing David Ortiz is a little more possible than people think. He’s a big Jose fan and if there’s something cooking here, it’s not out of the picture. He is more than likely to stay in Boston, but no one is kidding themselves. It’s possible. I’d even say it’s possible to land Greinke, depending on how he does with the Angels down the stretch. If he fails, Toronto would be a nice, quiet option.

          • It will never happen, Boston will offer arb and if the jays sign him it will cost them a pick. It will neverhappenfor An old DH that can’t play a defensive position.

      • -Boston isn’t imploding, they have won 4 straight and are ahead of the jays. They will probably keep Ortiz
        -Gose is no where near ready to start in RF, there is no way the jays can compete with zero offense from 2b AND RF.
        -Jays are not the best offense in baseball and their numbers are being lifted by a streaky player having a career year.

        • Offense is defined by runs scored, is it not? And by that measure, two days ago they were on top. They’re (goes and looks) down to fourth now because of two bad games in Seattle, but they’re still only five runs off the pace.

          Arguing that numbers are invalid because of a streaky player or a career year is dumb. Every team has streaky players and every team has players on career years. By that argument you should say the Jays are a better offense than they’ve shown because Lawrie, Escobar, and Johnson have all been cold all year. Or do you only discount the good streaks and include all the bad streaks?

          • If their offence is so good, why can’t we score runs in the last 3 games? Answer: the offense is bad and numbers were inflated via poor opposing pitching and blow outs. Other than EE, we have not had one consistently good bat all year. Who cares if we score 13 runs in one game if we lose the next two because we couldn’t muster more than 2 runs?

      • Gose needs another year at AAA. He simply cannot hit. Rajai and Moises are bench players. With that being said, I expect Rajai to be our LF next year.

        Alvarez needs another year in the minors to develop an out pitch. Without that, he may be relegated to the bullpen.

        Ortiz is not coming to the Jays. I fully expect he stayswith Boston on a two year deal. Expect to see Lind DHing next year.

        I could see the Jays possibly signing Anibal, McCarthy, Lewis or Jackson. That means Morrow, Romero, Happ and Hutchison. Cecil as pen or depth.

        • If we’re walking into the season with Happ and Hutchison in the rotation, I fully expect AA to grab a second free agent starter, of the #3 quality.

          I think with the full bullpen, that Villanueva is free to start here on out. And as regards Alvarez, I’ve heard that in the last two or three starts, he’s actually managed to develop that out pitch. If it’s true, great news for us; if not then I agree he needs minors.

          As for Cecil, probably beyond hope, but maybe Delabar can teach him that velocity improvement program and he can regain his lost speed?

      • Our offense is the best in the MLB? By what metric?

        Btw, Cano, Pedroia and Zobrist are all terrible. Wait… no.

        • By the metric of scoring runs….?

          • K. Didnt think top offenses got bitch slapped by Dice K. , Iwakuma and Vargas. Guess I am wrong.

        • Congrats, you just named three of the maybe six 2B who aren’t terrible. All of whom are not available.

          • All 3 in the AL East. Kipnis, Altuve, Hill, Walker, Phillips, Kinsler, Ackley, Barney… Please shut up.

          • Kipnis is a rookie and needs to prove himself to be considered elite. Next season he stand a pretty good chance of joining the elite, especially if he hits better than his present .752 OPS.

            Altuve can’t field 2B for beans, and would have to move if he wasn’t on a team that didn’t care.

            Aaron Hill is Aaron Hill. This is his first season above a WRc+ of 79 since 2009. You can’t be serious.

            This is Walker’s first ever season in which he wasn’t terrible at fielding 2B. He may stick at second, but we need to wait and see if this season is a fluke or not. This is also only his second good season. He’s probably borderline elite at this point, if his fielding keeps up.

            Phillips is legit elite. So is Kinsler.

            Ackley is OPSing .634. Give me a break.

            Barney is OPSing less than Kelly Johnson. (So is Pedroia, for that matter.)

            The only elite 2B in the league are Cano, Phillips, Pedroia, Kinsler, and Zobrist. And Pedroia has been terrible this season. You may add Kipnis and Walker if you like. Only 9 2B have a WRc+ above 100. So, yes, there are no available decent 2B, and many teams are making do with no hitting from that position whatsoever.

            • Ok. And most teams are not going to make the playoffs. I agree that we don’t need premium offense fr every position… but we are getting fuck all from power positions like LF and DH. Can’t compensate for that loss that way. Plus you are slotting in Gose and Hech? Two currently #9 hitters?

          • It’s not ideal to have two number nine hitters in the lineup. But you have a better idea?

            Besides, this team is already producing top of the league offense even as is. Offense is not the problem. It’s pitching. AA has revamped the bullpen. We need an ace, we need Ricky to return to normal, we need Alvarez to find an out pitch, and we need some #3 or other to hold down the fort until our pitching staff comes back from injury or develops from the farm.

            Buying starters isn’t a huge deal, apart from convincing an ace to come here.

      • Everyone gets their runs scored inflated via blowouts and everyone occasionally gets shutdown by a complete nobody. The Jays are not special in this respect. If the Yankees scored their average runs scored per game every game, and gave up their average runs allowed per game every game, they would win every game. But they don’t, because that’s not how baseball works.

    • Did you ever think that this is a team getting ready to compete? All of the pieces they received are controllable for the next couple of years, minus Lyon.

      DH and LF are easier positions to fill in FA. But they still have some internal options for LF with Gose, Sierra & Davis.

      It’s also possible that Snider could have lost all of his value come the off-season. I wouldn’t say the were selling high, but they still could have done worse.

      • Their biggest hole (SP) has been needed for 2 years now, until they somehow acquire one they will not compete.

        Also, DH and LF could have been easily filled this offseason when they where question marks too…

        • Agree 100% that they need a good SP.

          However coming into this year they had Thames/Snider in LF, plus Davis as the 4th OF.

          They had Lind and EE at 1st and DH, and they wanted to see what they had in these guys. They weren’t planning on seriously competing this year so there was no need to upgrade.

          • But they are planning to next year? Tough for me to see how we look better in August 2012 than we did in August 2011.

    • Fucking excellent post

    • You’ve summed it up completely! The depressing thing will be looking back at this post next April and seeing that nothing is any different. If they think Davis or Gose can/should be everyday left fielders then it’ll be “next year we’ll fill in the pieces” again.

    • Your analysis of the KJ / Aaron Hill trade is completely wrong. Aaron Hill signed with the Diamondbacks as a free agent after his options were turned down. KJ was good enough to offer arbitration in the offseason, which would have either netted that Jays compensation picks had he signed elsewhere, or get him on an OK one year contract. Win-Win-Mother Fucking Win. Just because Hill is playing great while Johnson is playing mediocre has absolutely no bearing on that trade.

      Carlos Villanueva is a free agent this year, so there is only a 1/30 chance he is back with the Jays.

      Most (sensible) people recognized that Romero was the #2 starter in terms of talent to Morrow coming into this season. Romero’s peripherals last year would make him a very good #2 starter, plus he had been improving his peripherals every year until this year. Noone could have predicted this melt down, and I don’t think it’s right to say he is really at best a #3 starter (if he can get back on track, of course. This years version of Romero is at best a #4-5 starter).

      I definitely agree the Jays need starting pitching in the offseason though, and hopefully it comes via trade or free agency.

  4. Dewayne Wise is for hire. Call up AA yo.

  5. I really do not get the Snider love in on here . He was hitting 235 with no homers vs right handed pitching. This is a guy that was suppose to be a POWER BAT and has not developed. I think Sniders a good guy he said and did the right things but as others have said come end of season if things did not change you get a Shawn Camp for him instead of a Brad Lincoln

    • And of course we finally drop out of contention with a three game losing streak to a terrible team at midnight on Sportsnet One.

      This is the way the season ends
      This is the way the season ends
      This is the way the season ends
      Not with a bang but a whimper

  6. Pretty much sums up the past few days:

  7. I’m sure what’s happened is Jose Bautista went and opened his big fuckin mouth to the media about wanting the Jays’ front office to bring in some pitchers. Ownership thought ‘oh fuckin no!!! This motherfucker, who our marketing sceme has revolved around, along with Brett Lawire, is going to be unhappy and bail if we dont get a few pitchers in here’. Then, ownership told Beaston to tell AA to get some fuckin pitchers or else. AA rolled his eyes, shook his head, and then said ‘oh well, fuck it’ because he realises that soon enough his contract will be up, he’ll sign a contract with a bigger budget team and wont have to worry about nonsense like this. He proceeded to make a few silly trades to make ownership, and thus Bautista, happy. The end. amirite?

  8. Trade Deadline was a super big let down. One has to figure that the asking price for players was skewed by the new WC and the changes to the FA system. You have to believe that most GM’s were asking for the moon just to see if there anyone was crazy enough to pay the price. Will that trend continue this offseason? Or will the market be a little more “normal”? FA market is really thin this year though. And anyone who thinks Greinke is signing with TO is crazy. Remember, we’ve got that 5 year maximum on contracts, right?

    • Greinke’s girlfriend is a wanna-be actress. Unless she is pining to be the next big thing on DeGrassi High or some lame CBC production, Greinke won’t be coming to Toronto. He is likely going to extend with the Halos.

      The price of poker always goes up in the trade season, especially for quality pitching. I get that AA wants to rebuild the bullpen with some upside guys with good contracts, but holy fuck, giving up Snider for Lincoln could come back to bite him in the ass.

      With all of those team friendly contracts on the books for next year, AA should have some wiggle room to get a quality and proven starter in the FA market in the offseason.

      The rotation has some quality arms, but even with the return of Hutch and Morrow, the rotation gets thin once you get past the top 4 or 5 guys on the depth chart. McGuire and Jenkins were supposed to provide some depth but that plan is not working out. And nevermind the Lansing trio. They are light years away from making the show.

      AA should extend Villanueva and sign a proven arm who can pitch 180 innings. By the looks of it, the bullpen has enough arms to compete, even without Frasor or Lyon (both are FA’s).

  9. I’m sick n’ tired of being sick n’ tired.

  10. The Jays are like your first apartment. You may have one or two great things in it, like a big screen TV or stereo, but most things are mismatched crap from friends, relatives, or Goodwill.

    By the time most people can afford something better, your TV and stereo need replacing.

    Sad thing is that Rogers could afford anything, but expect the fans to be happy with the crap they are serving us. Adding some quality free agents around the few core players we have is the sensible way to go. We saw this season what NOT doing that accomplishes.

    • Why does everyone always assume that ‘quality free agents’ want to come to Toronto. AA tried to sign Carlos Beltran this offseason and he said “fuck no”. The only quality free agents that are coming to Toronto are coming because they’re being overpaid, like AJ Burnett or BJ Ryan types. We don’t want those fuckin scrubs at anything but fair market value and on fair term, do we? I don’t. When the team starts to contend and has a real fuckin chance at making the postseason, the free agents will be much more inclined to comes, you’ll see! Give it time, it’s coming sooner rather than later, folks.

      • Yea right. Dream on.

      • And how, pray tell, are we going to be in the spot “When the team starts to contend and has a real fuckin chance at making the postseason”?

        Just wait, and wait, and wait…… that’s the answer to everything isn’t it? You can never be wrong, because the playoff team is perpetually two years away.

        • Trust me, I understand your frustration. I am pretty fuckin frustrated as well with seeing a .500 club every single fuckin year. I do think the club is improving, though, even though their record may not indicate as much. The farm system is stacked, and that talent is on it’s way up and has looked alright so far. With a decent bullpen these last 2 years, this club would have won 5 more games per season without a doubt in my mind, am I wrong there?? I think AA has realized as much, and has been working hard to make sure that the bullpen isn’t a problem in 2013. That, along with the core of this club, which I think is above average, along with a healthy pitching staff next year will be enough to give the Jays a real shot at making the postseason. I think adding an extra 2-3 type starting pitcher would be a cherry on top of this cake, and I hope AA can make that happen as well, although I don’t want to see him overpay – starting pitchers that aren’t garbage cost a fuckin load.

      • I’m pretty sure Beltran said, I’m old and would like to win a World Series while I still have legs for one more year.

        Anyway, you people posting on blogs need to take it down a notch with the anger. It’s not like you have actual stock with the Blue Jays, and aren’t getting anything out of them except enjoyment. So why are you wasting time with anger with something you watch to enjoy? That being said, if you prefer just watching statistics in baseball and don’t really enjoy watching the game, you can go fuck yourself.

        • Why do people get mad when they play golf? Or when the service at a restaurant is too slow? Or at their spouses during a fight? Or at a movie when the ending sucks? Or at Stoeten when he doesn’t post anything until 5:30 PM?
          You seem to be arguing that people should never be upset when something that they want to enjoy is instead disappointing. I’m sure that’s admirable, but its also kind of retarded.
          Having said that, people should probably simmer down. Its not like we actually gave anything up the last few weeks; we just didn’t add anything either.

        • I agree, there are too many negative idiots posting on here, and in Toronto in general. Every time I say that, I remember that this team hasn’t seen a winner in a long time, though, in any sport, and start to think maybe the anger is a bit justified. People are fed up and need a god damn winner.

          I believe Beltran said no because he didn’t want to play on the turf and blow out a knee (again? I can’t remember if he had knee surgery, but think he has). He was just an example off the top of my head though. There are many more examples of ‘quality free agents’ who will not sign here unless we have a real serious shot at winning.

          • above shoud have said ‘this city’ instead of ‘this team’

          • Not true. He did not want to DH. A formal offer was never presented.

          • I don’t know that that’s true. The vast majority (nearly all in fact) of baseball players take the most money offered to them. It just so happens that the largest contracts are usually offered by the ‘contending’ teams. On the few occasions that a FA doesn’t go to one of the big spenders, its nearly always because of money; Zito, Fielder, Burnett, Reyes, etc.
            If the Jays really wanted to sign a free agent they just need to go out there and get him. Not that they should, but to say there’s a causal link between team success and ability to attract free agents is a mistake.

          • You really think that the talent is above average? I don’t see it. I see a perpetual 0.500 team, where we’re not bad enough to get the top draft picks and not good enough to make the playoffs.

    • Stellar analogy.

      Pretty soon Jose Bautista is going become old, and under performing like a DVD player. Which served its purpose amazing during its time, but then it starts skipping and its time to upgrade to a Blue Ray player. Problem is, the Blue Ray player is too damn expensive and sometimes you wish the Beta Max was still around because of its durability.

      We seem to be currently buying so so pieces off the black market, don’t quite know if its going to work. But what a fuckin bargain. You know, the dollar stores always there too.

      The Greek Geek is turning into that guy who walks into Guess Clothes store wearing nothing but Starter clothes from Walmart. Everyone looking at him window shopping but they know he can’t afford anything so the store clerk just calls security because he’s loitering. Then he scrambles to prove his worth and buy something at the discount rack, but when he pulls out his wallet, he’s 10 bucks short. Security asks him to leave, so he walks into a Winners and buys large. Problem is then all his new jeans have holes in them.

  11. Oh my goodness, Moises Sierra’s hind quarters.

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