Is Kevin Comer Houston’s PTBNL?

Comer? I just met her!

According to a tweet from Joe Musgrove, who went from the Jays to Houston in the deal that brought JA Happ, David Carpenter, and the ability to watch Brandon Lyon for two months, instead of Francisco Cordero, it sure looks like Kevin Comer, 57th overall pick in 2011, is going to be the Player to Be Named Later going to the Astros.

Wow.

I’m also being told that all the Bluefield players were saying goodbye to Comer on Twitter, so… it sounds like this is a thing. And… holy fuck, either they soured on Comer ridiculously fast– they gave him a $1.65-million bonus a year ago– or… they paid a ridiculously steep price for not a whole lot. It really pushes the deal from I guess I can kinda understand why they might do that territory to something more along the lines of holy fuck, is that seriously the best they could have got??!!?!

I don’t even dislike JA Happ as much as a lot of fans, but… seriously, wow. The players the Jays received are just not that good. I mean, I understand that there are a finite number of potential roster spots down the line, that waves of prospects keep coming and may have been passing the likes of Comer, Musgrove and Asher Wojciechowski, but… whatever has changed in the last year, those are some of their higher profile prospect names, and I just can’t see how that’s seriously the price for what may amount to a pair of relievers.

But hey, if you’re into silver linings, at least it’s a signal that Alex Anthopoulos doesn’t always horde prospects and years of control above all else, and that he’s starting to be willing to move some of the prospect capital the club has built up in his tenure to get actual Major League talent– or “talent,” as it were– even if it doesn’t appear he’s done so… y’know… smartly. But I suppose that, like the Travis Snider deal, we could have another case of the club getting value in return for guys who were about to lose theirs in a big way, which, obviously, we can’t entirely be sure of [Note: Or can we? See below].  But, shit, at this point I’m OK with making things murkier than they might seem on first blush, because I’m pretty sure if you’d told me eight months ago that the Jays made this trade I’d have puked my fucking guts out.

Ugh.

Update: Keith Law confirms, via Twitter, that it is indeed Comer as the PTBNL, and gives us a reason why the organization may have soured on him so quickly, noting that his velocity is “down to upper 80s this year.” Not a good sign, nor is the 6.02 K/9 through 43.1 innings in Bluefield. So… starting to calm down a little here.

“Comer’s go-to pitch is a four seam fastball. The pitch regularly clocks in the low 90’s, and touches 94-95 mph,” wrote Kyle Matte at Hypocritical Sports Fan earlier in the year, but in the same piece he noted that “Comer lost some fastball velocity late in his high school career, which is something that should be monitored once he gets underway in 2012.”

In July at Baseball America, Jim Callis answered a question about the Jays’ pitching prospects, listing the top ten (prior to the 2012 draft class), among which Comer was 10th. “It’s possible to dream on all of these guys and envision them becoming at least No. 3 starters,” he wrote, “though Nicolino and Comer will have to add more velocity to profile that well.”

Yep… starting to make a lot more sense.

 

Image via SenecaWarEagles.com.

Comments (271)

  1. Keith Law confirms it. Also says Comer’s velocity down to upper 80s this year.

    Wow.

  2. Keep fapping fan boys!

    AA is a GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOODDDDDDDDDDDD!

    Right?

  3. awful trade, I could understand the trade if it was for a consistent #4-5 starter, but Happ is certainly not that.

    • Not sure you can write Happ off as “certainly not” being a consistent 4-5 starter. I think he very much has the ability to be. Sure, he’s been shelled a couple of times that we’ve seen him, but isn’t that kind of what a consistent 4 – 5 starter does? They get shelled sometimes, are mostly decent enough though unspectacular, and then have occasional gems. Any better than that and they’d be a #3.

      I have no problem w/ Happ as a 4-5, and I certainly don’t know enough about this Comer kid to give much of a shit, though on the surface it does seem like an overpay.

      • He put up 5th starter numbers on the worst team, in the worst division in baseball. What makes you think he could be anything more?

      • I just don’t think Happ is good enough, or performs consistently enough to be a #4-5 starter on a potential playoff team. Sure on the Astros he was, but I don’t see the value here. Think of it this way, is Happ really better the Cecil or Laffey? I would say barely. Imagine if this trade was those 4 prospects for Cecil and Laffey, wouldn’t you all be fucking ecstatic? I would, and now see that we got even less then that for those 4 prospects, a fringe starter, 2 months of a reliever, and another 27 year old reliever who hasn’t made it in the majors yet… pretty awful.

        • We could’ve got someone like joe blanton who I’d much prefer to happ for much less. Dodgers have up their 23rd best prospect. Who cares if he’s a free agent end of season, happ is going to be non tendered anyways…

  4. For what it’s worth, Keith Law says Comer’s velocity is now down to the upper 80s (http://twitter.com/keithlaw/statuses/236127038384259072), and he’s not really striking out very many at Bluefield. Still, seems like a whole lot more than they should have been paying.

  5. I was worried about this for the past month. If you look at the 2011 draftees that couldn’t have been made official when the deal went down, it was mostly big names: Dean, Anderson, Stilson, Norris, Gabrezewski, Comer, DeSclafani, DSmith. There were only a couple of scrubs on the list, GCL guys that didn’t seem likely candidates for the ‘Stros…’

    TERRIBLE>

  6. Either a mistake was made in taking Comer with the pick they did last year and signing overslot, or they overpaid in this trade here. Either way….ugh. What happened to our Greek genius?

  7. or, is it a suggestion that the pre-season BA rankings system isn’t as good an indication of what the team actually ranks their prospects? Not sure I believe that but giving up this much “value” for what we got seems pretty…strange

  8. Musgrove, Wojo, and Comer? At least one of those guys will probably turn out to be decent. I would have thought that for a return like Happ, Lyon, and Carpenter the Jays would be giving up guys like Jenkins/McGuire/Carreno, not ones who still have some projectibility left.

  9. The most amazing thing is that we spent roughly 3 million on comer, wojo, and musgrove as supplmental picks.

    Then we trade them for garbage..

    I don’t see how these guys could have been saved for a SP in a trade, just on the fact they were recent supplemental picks.

    • Not only the $3M in bonuses, but adding the major league salaries of the garbage the Jays got back.

    • “The most amazing thing is that we spent roughly 3 million on comer, wojo, and musgrove as supplmental picks.”

      Thank the good Lord the Blue Jays ARE spending, as we’ve been told so many times. Otherwise how would they be able to land elite talent like JA Happ & David Carpenter?

      AA has done nothing in the last calendar year to improve the team.

      • Colby Rasmus.

      • Really would like to see some of these minor investment $ (draft picks with signing bonuses traded away for questionable MLB depth, Mathis and McGowan contracts, one year RP contracts) be used differently to maximize on-field value.

      • Yeah I guess the Rasmus trade didn’t improve the team at all, and don’t fucking say that wasn’t within the last calendar year, cuz that would be the ultimate arbitrary end point game.

      • They didn’t have a draft this year?

        • Hahahahahaha. Sorry, I forgot that AA allowed his team to participate in the annual MLB draft.

          • And there isn’t value in not making the team worse while letting all the talent you’ve accumulated continue to improve you from within.

            I mean, we get it, you love being a little pisspants, but putting the calendar endpoints on it is pretty weak– almost as weak as ignoring the deal for Santos, a great contract for Darren Oliver, getting Encarnacion re-signed, the positive changes made to Rasmus’ swing, building a cost-controlled and very good bullpen, or precisely how he went about exploiting the CBA changes in the draft to outstanding effect.

            Nope, just been sitting on his hands.

          • Replying to Stoeten. He very well could have made the team worse. He traded a potential everyday LF, Snider probably won’t amount to anything, but who knows.
            He rushed 2 of his top 3 prospects, arguably starting them on the path that Snider was on in the first place, who knows if this hurts their development, but it might.
            He traded a good amount of his minor league depth for nothing, prospects that on their own are worth nothing, but could be a final piece in a bigger trade.

          • @ Jaysball

            Gose and Hech were only “rushed” if you believe the Jays have no intention of ever sending them back down again.

            To me, it’s a perfectly reasonable developmental strategy to bring up Gose and Hech for a few weeks so they know the adjustments they’ll need to make to become ML regulars before sending them back to the minors.

            You don’t think it helps Gose’s development more to play a few weeks in the majors b4 the AFL as opposed to just riding it out in Vegas?

          • @jays2010 – interesting point, but to play devil’s advocate, wouldn’t that logic argue that most prospects would follow that path (ie brought up for stints)? Clearly that doesn’t happen so how do you connect the dots?

            • i agree it’s an interesting thought. and without having any actual numbers too back it up I’d say it does happen with a lot of prospects, only the ones that take off on their first try usually stick. examples would be mike trout and Anthony rizzo last year. Both came up failed went down made adjustments that seem too be working out nicely this year. who knows though?

          • @Bored… actually, I think that does happen a lot, and I feel certain that it’s deliberate. Easing people into difficult jobs is kind of common sense. Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and King Felix are extreme exceptions. Remember Cliff Lee’s last trip to the minors? Or Doc Halladay’s first pass at the Show?

  10. KLaw says Comer’s velocity has been down in the high 80′s this season. He was sitting at 94 when he was drafted. Is there something to that maybe?

    But yes, in general I think this is an overpayment. I don’t get it either unless AA really hasn’t liked them now that he’s seen them up close. But if that’s the case, shouldn’t they be asking questions about their scouting?

    It’s not so much the players that the Jays got that puts all of this into question. I’m more interested in knowing if the cost of taking on Francisco and Cordero was really that high?

    • I’ll also add, that I think the Jays ARE asking questions about their scouting. AA has said before that they’re always learning from previous drafts. Maybe the strategy they went with for that draft simply didn’t work and they’re seeing it play out that way and are making attempts to get “stuff” for them before their value is limited like say, Justin Jackson or Kevin Ahrens.

      • SO a year is enough time to make those decisions? And Jesus: look what AA GOT for those guys! NOTHING WORTH HAVING. Happ the fucking non-tender candidate and Lincoln Log.

        • A year might be enough time to make those decisions. Neither me or you work in scouting and player development, so who are we to say that you can’t evaluate a player up close in such a short time? If you want to be an idiot and make the assumption that you know better than the team then go right ahead.

          As for what they got in this deal, I don’t have any problem with the guys they got from Houston, as long as your expectations weren’t sky-high (and why would they have been?). Also what does this deal have to do with Lincoln (who is actually a good reliever)?

        • Delabar looks more than fine to me

    • Actually he wasn’t sitting 94 when he was drafted. His velocity was down leading into the draft (or was overstated before that) leading some to believe that he really wanted to go to Vandy or was injured). He has touched 94 in his time with the Jays but the best he’s sat was 91ish. This year he’s barely hit 90 on the gun according the reports I’ve heard. Is this a major scouting flaw we are now seeing? High School pitchers in the first 75 picks have the lowest return on investment (College Pitchers aren’t that much better) and smarter teams have jumped away from it.

      • Thanks for clearing that up. I saw in Jays Journal that he was sitting at 94 and made the mistake of assuming that was where he was at when drafted.

        It’s definitely troubling for a guy to peak so young.

        • Here was a pre-draft report.

          At 6-foot-4, 210 pounds, Comer passes the eye test, and at his best he flashes stuff that would make him a lock for the top three rounds. Scouts haven’t been able to get a good read on him this season, as he had thrown just 14 innings and had been inconsistent. Out of the gates, Comer sat in the low 90s and made it look easy. At his best, he also has a 12-to-6 curveball that falls off the table and has shown feel for a changeup. But he missed about 10 days in the middle of the season because of a class trip, and then left a game early and was showing mid-80s velocity. Scouts aren’t sure if he is injured or just isn’t interested in signing. He is committed to Vanderbilt, and most agree he could be a first-rounder after three years there.

  11. Musgrove and Comer may both be damaged goods at this point and that’s why the Astros wanted both and not a single healthy equivalent. Clutching?

    • Up until this season I’ve always understood AA’s moves, even if they didn’t work out (ie Napoli for Francisco). And like mostly everyone, I’ve been hugely impressed with his rebuild.

      But, I just don’t really get all those minor leaguers for basically Happ, and Snider for Lincoln.

      Maybe, as Law said, these prospects are on the verge of losing value and would soon be replaced on the depth chart had they stuck around. Maybe they see something in Snider that makes them feel confident he won’t ever put it together.

      AA has earned trust from 2 years of some great moves … But yeah… Don’t get these.

      • it’s not hard to figure out

        first team to 500 runs

        worst bullpen in the whole league

        trade strength to shore up weakness

        its business and not emotional

  12. Lol if you put the all of his trades this year together
    its one huge LOL

    • I would be happy if no one ever said “lol” ever again. How can you expect people to take you seriously when you use the langage of a 14 year old girl?

      • harsh much? Look around dude, you’re on a site called “drunk jays fans” not the atlantic – get over yourself

  13. What’s the probability a pitcher at Bluefield makes it to the majors? I bet AA has a much better idea of this than any of us do. Prospect porn is fun and all, but the Jays have an additional year of information on all these guys that we as fans do not have.

    • +1. An additional year of info that us fans couldn’t even imagine having. Goldstein said it a few podcasts ago, roughly paraphrased: Clubs have metrics and information even us non-org scouts could only dream of.

      • Plus, clubs can focus purely on their pool of talent, whereas Goldstein et al. focus on the entire pool of talent.

    • That’s true. But if it’s true that they suck, why did you draft them in the first round and give them giant fucking bonuses. And only last year or the year before! Either way, there’s some seriously fucking up going on here. I can’t BELIEVE these fucking trades.

      • or high risk prospects seen in early college or highschool can deteriorate their value at an alarming rate because outside of a few “locks”, it’s mostly a crapshoot.

        • It’s a crapshoot that AA has said you have to play to win. You look for high upside and hope that one turns out. You don’t trade them for relievers and easily acquired #4-5 starters.

          It flies in the face of everything AA has preached up until now.

          • Not really inconsistent with AA’s draft strategy. You look for high upside in the draft, and then get rid of the ones that no longer have that upside when you have additional information once they have played proball. Better to get something for them before they most likely turn into duds.

          • how are all these guys easily acquired? It cost St. Louis Colby Rasmus to get a few months of Edwin Jackson, Dotel, Scrabble and the bag of shit that is Cory Patterson

        • I agree with Gargle. HS arms are a crap shoot. This has been the plan, draft a ton of them because a lot of them are not going to work out.

          At this point it seems we almost have a log jam of them, so I have no issue with them shedding the ones they think have less of a shot after seeing them in proball for a year.

    • You still have to weigh the risk against what you’re getting in return. Perez was a bit redundant since we have so many catchers, so you can afford to trade him. Then you add, musgrove woj and comer. The package has a good chance to out perform happ who is realistically a 5 or bullpen piece moving forward. It’s a shortsighted move from a guy who was against these type of rash decisions. But then again, in AA we trust.

      • Even if four-far-away-prospects is the right price to pay for a number 4-5 starter, it’s not one the Jays need to pay. They have tons of pitching prospects that will fail into number 4-5 starters. They can extend Villanueva in the meantime.

        If ONE of Comer, Musgrove, Perez, Snider or Wojo turns into a 20 WAR player, these trades will have been collossal failures.

        • @GilFisher What if Happ is a 3 WAR pitcher next year and the team makes the playoffs? How does an unknown 20 WAR career measure up to that?

          There’s a consideration of timing that your statement doesn’t account for, not to mention disregarding the future value that Happ, Carpenter, Lyon & Lincoln will provide.

      • Your “good chance” is an assumption. What is the probability that they outperform a season of Happ (a proven mlb’r)? My guess is that AA has a better estimate of this than any of us do.

        • when talking about prospects its all about assumptions and predictions. Im just saying id take a chance on 3 prospects given what we know about happ. And obviously AA knows more than any of us, and its why i said at the end of my comment, “in AA we trust”

  14. Wow. Wow. Wow. What an unbelievably shitty month for AA. Of course, I don’t know these guys beyond what I’ve read. But they took them all pretty fucking early and paid them a lot of money just toss them aside for a steaming pile of garbage. And wow. Lincoln’s sooooo much more valuable to this team than Travis Snider could have been? Seriously, AA: what the fuck?

    • I’ve thought like Pete quite bit the last month.

      Here’s the thing: AA stockpiles these draft picks, and we’re supposed to look long term on them. Project what they COULD be. Rotation arms! Lots of them!

      He trades prospects away, and we’re supposed to still look long-term on them, but with a different spin: that they won’t turn out to be anything. But look at what we got- it helps the team right now! But how much?

      With the Happ trade, either they’re admitting they were wrong right away on these guys, or rolling the dice that they won’t be anything. And for JA Happ, who might be a #5.

      Most modern baseball research says that relievers fluctuate year to year. So sending actual assets- prospects, possible position players- for these guys doesn’t make a lot of sense to us fans.

      I’m almost relieved that AA is fallible, I just hate that it came in two trades where it seems like we got screwed.

      I’m also wondering how much influence John Farrell has in the front office, given the short-term view of some of these trades. I get that he and AA should be working together, but trading for relievers and back-end rotation guys smells like a manager thing to do.

  15. my scalp is bleeding from all the head-scratching.

  16. Maybe it’s just me, but I still don’t think they gave up a whole lot. I guess we’ll see in 4 – 5 years how it ends up.

    • doesn’t matter what happens in 4-5 years, the price is too steep *now*, these are all prospects with buzz. the only buzz around happ and lyon is the flies buzzing around their rotting corpses.

  17. What the fuck!

  18. just take it as a positive that the jays are now a team that moves on from guys they dont think are going to be impact players

  19. At the risk of sounding overly dramatic, would you say it’s time we cracked each other’s heads open, and feast on the gooeyness within?

  20. The Astros must know the secret of the Man in White and AA is paying them off in prospects….

    Or they’ve simply soured on Comer and the others sent to the Astros….

    Or it was just a terrible trade….

  21. Heh. AA is trying to let other GMs think he’s human so they’ll answer his calls.

  22. I just fear that AA doesn’t have the patience that he touted previously. He seems to have lost sight of the “right” way to do things. I believe the early-on intent was to have trade chips on the MLB roster with value to make space for emerging talent and re-stock the lower to mid minor league teams with more talent to ‘bring along’.

    What the fuck happened to this philosophy? Is it the “win before EE and Bautista are old” detour? Because it’s going to short-term the value of this team pretty quick.

    • This is what I feared a few months ago with the impatience of our fan base.
      This is why I’ve spent the last months arguing with the AA sucks camp.

      These calls to win now are pressuring him to make rash moves to appease the LOUD, vocal yet unknowlegable MINORITY.

      Those who watched Gillick take 8 years to build and “stand Pat” understand player development and how to build things the right way for long-term sustainable championship runs. This seemed to be AA’s MO the first 2 years and I loved it.

      Those with a puckhead mentality who just want to make the playoffs are forcing his hand and I fear it’s going to get worse with even dumber trades along the lines of Young for Loaiza.
      For the last year all the win now people have been bitching that our pen sucks and have demanded moves to improve.
      This is what we get.

      I’ve been the biggest supporter of AA but this is just a terrible move.
      Not so much for what we got. I think both Lincoln and Happ will be fine, maybe even good, next year.
      What I hate about this is how much depth we gave up.
      Couldn’t we have packaged those seven guys, with Gose or Hech or a near ready “talent” for an elite pitcher?
      If we burn our prospect porn depth, even if they never make it, then what do we have left to offer for a SP in the offseason. Once we lose depth, we can only offer the special prospects.

      I still think AA has been incredible for what he’s done up to now but this move, me no likie.

      • Fully with you. Well said.

        Unless the Jays know something this move has a high chance of giving the Blue Jays a bad case of Biteyouintheasslater-itis

    • But… really? Is this really a panic move? He hasn’t traded a single prospect in the organization’s top 10. Arguably none who are top 15? Moves like this are exactly why he’s been building amassing huge numbers or prospects. I agree that the value seems a bit tilted to the Astros at this point, but not to a huge degree, and definitely not to the point where I think it show’s AA casting aside his philosophy.

      If he were trading big leaguers for more prospects, that would be more worriesome to me. It’s at least clear he’s focused on improving the major league roster, and trading arms that are at best 3 years off with mid-rotation ceilings doesn’t seem too heavy a price.

  23. At some point between the 2011 draft and today the Jays lost some value. It appears that the return for these once revered prospects is quite low.

    However, it has to be obvious to everyone that no one in their right mind would ever use two supplemental first round picks with the intent of converting them a year later into J.A. Happ, a few months of Brandon Lyon and David Carpenter. It’s clear that the players the Jays traded were no longer worth what they were when they were drafted. That is the only way to make sense of this deal.

    The Jays under Anthopolous have never been shafted in a trade. Although I recognize that it’s wrong to believe that the Jays ‘losing’ a trade absolutely never will occur because it hasn’t happened yet, I think it’s critical to keep in mind that the prospects the Jays have traded away under AA have not amounted to anything of irreplaceable value (yet).

    Let’s also keep things in perspective. Musgrove was injured and Comer’s velo is down hard. They’re both in rookie ball and at least three seasons away from making any sort of contributions at the Major League level.

    • “The Jays under Anthopolous have never been shafted in a trade.”

      Gibberish.

      • I can’t tell if you’re being sarcastic or not, but I’m having a very hard time finding an example of a deal he’s made that has definitively put the team in a worse position than they were prior to the trade.

        • You have a short memory. Napoli for Francisco is the easy one

        • How about the catcher they sent to texas

          • That part of it was rough for sure, but I prefer (perhaps too much on the glass half-full side) to look at that trade in its entirety. It was a solid net gain to rid the team of Wells and his contract. It obviously would have ended up better without the Francisco-Napoli element, but when you look at the trade as a whole, it was a definite win for the team.

    • “Let’s also keep things in perspective. Musgrove was injured and Comer’s velo is down hard. They’re both in rookie ball and at least three seasons away from making any sort of contributions at the Major League level.”

      This!

      And it is even more important to emphasize: “at least three seasons away”. A hell of a lot can happen to a pitching prospect in that time.

    • “However, it has to be obvious to everyone that no one in their right mind would ever use two supplemental first round picks with the intent of converting them a year later into J.A. Happ”

      Nail on the head. Someone fucked up somewhere.

      • Something went wrong, but that doesn’t mean that at the time Musgrove and Comer weren’t the right players at their respective slots. It could mean any number of things, including the possibility that the players simply aren’t as promising as they were at the time they were drafted.

        I guess what I was getting at is that they lost value in picking those players, but only in hindsight. They were both very highly touted prospects leading up to the 2011 draft.

        • I agree with you, Fraser. They were both seen as good – if not great – picks at the time (barely a year ago).

          I guess the pill I’m having a hard time swallowing is that Musgrove and Comer had only pitched 32 and 43 innings of minor league ball prior to being moved.

          As only pieces in a deal to land a fringe NL central starter, these two either lost a lot of value in a very small sample sized performance, or, if they have maintained their draft day value, they were sold at what seems like less than full price.

          • In either case, it’s not an ideal situation. But the amateur draft is a crapshoot to begin with and even if these players were well regarded, they still faced long odds to get to the majors.

    • maybe it was the prospects were being overrated?

      • No way, man. Nobody ever overrates prospects or stickhandles around their flaws, especially those belonging to their favourite teams!!!!

  24. Ok – new theory!!!!!!

    AA was doing so well in trades when he first started that it reached the point where other GMs were afraid to deal with him and wouldn’t take his calls. So his new strategy is to “lose” a few deals that are big enough to get noticed but not big enough to actually really hurt the organization long term.
    Then, once the other GMs realize he’s human after all he’ll be able to snooker them once again!

    TADAH!! NINJA!

  25. Is this a fucking joke? Get Ricciardi back.

  26. First of all, I’m no scout or anything, but isn’t there a good chance that Asher W. becomes as good as Happ, like next year?

    • You’re always taking a chance when you make a trade.

    • I wouldn’t say it is a good chance at all. He was repeating high A ball.

    • Keep in mind that J.A. Happ was an even more highly regarded prospect than anyone we gave up.
      Philly even refused to include him in the trade for Halladay.

      I’d be surprised (though not shocked) if anyone of these guys has as much success as Happ in MLB. Yes, I realize that’s not saying much.

  27. Barf

  28. Everyone take a series of deep breaths and remember that these guys were 3-5 years from even considering to be JA Happ. Now I know its not a popular opinion around here, but I’m happy that AA finally gives a shit about the 2013 team. Jose and EE aren’t getting any younger, and as that little exercise in the comments section proved to me yesterday, there is no realistic 2013 Jays rotation that doesn’t include Happ getting at least spot starts.

    I’ve really made it to a zen space with this season where I’ve convinced myself that AA has set himself up perfectly – in both roster construction and payroll structure – to do some serious shaking in 2013. I recommend you all try and do the same; plus, it’ll make your anger feel all the more righteous when all we add for next season is Carl Pavano and Freddy Sanchez…

  29. Too many people are claiming that this trade doesn’t fit with AA’s philosophy of accumulating high upside talent. AA has said that they want guys who keep moving forward and do not take too much of a step back. It sounds like both Wochj and Comer took steps back. And musgrove’s injury adds more uncertainty to his future, which can be considered a step back from where he was. AA is banking that he sold high on these guys and got a proven MLB 5th starter/middle reliever in exchange.

  30. I’m still waiting for a Tony LaCava draft pick to do something in the major leagues. I have no idea why everyone thinks so highly of this guy?

    • Lacava doesn’t make the picks.

    • Dumb. He was an AGM since 2002 so he would have been involved in some of the JPR picks that are making an impact right now. If you meant since he was named Director of Player Development in 2009 well, that’s dumb too. It takes more than 3 years for any draft pick to “do something in the major leagues” even though some of them are, even if it’s just as emergency relief pitchers in light of the rash of injuries.

      And seriously, just because he’s the Director of Player development doesn’t mean he is solely responsible for every player in the organization, especially because he can’t, you know, pitch or hit for them.

      You have no idea why everyone thinks so highly of him? Well that doesn’t surprise me one bit. You seem to have no idea about a whole lot of things.

      • Okay, humor me. Since 2002 what Jay’s prospects have been succesful?

        Our lineup last night had one player drafted by the Jays (Cooper) and most people, including the Jays’s org don’t think he is a major leaguer.
        On The DL we have Lind and Arencibia, who are both completely hated on this blog.

        As for pitchers, we have Ricky who has been very good except for this year. Aaron Loup who looks pretty good, Janssen who is a stud and then Hendo and Jenkins who are floating right now as AAAA players.

        • Umm… you just answered your own question. All of those guys have “done something” at the major league level to one degree or another. That is, in and of itself, extremely improbably when talking about prospects.

          Obviously none of them are Mike Trout, but neither is anyone drafted by any other teams. Arencibia is only hated because TDA is waiting in the wings. There are lots of teams that would be thrilled to have him.

          The pitchers you named are all perfectly fine Major Leaguers (although I’d love to see Alvarez spend one more season in the minors), with Loup and Jenkins still too green to make final decisions on.

          Again, nobody elite, but elite players are so rare that to somehow imply that all the drafts LaCava has been involved in are busts is just dumb.

      • Give me a concrete reason why LaCava is so well thought of? He may be well deserving of praise, so if so, please enlighten me.

        • Well seeing as how neither you nor I know enough about scouting or prospect development to even have opinions on such things, anything I could say would be pointless. All I could do would be to point you to articles where people who DO presumably know enough say so. Which would essentially be saying he’s highly though of because he’s highly thought of.

          All I’m saying is that players he’s been involved in drafting and developing have “done something” at the Major League level, which was your original question.

          • So in ten years of drafting, with probably more top picks than any other team, you are pleased with coming up with the group of Romero, Jenkins, Arencibia, Lind, Loup, Janssen, Hendo and Cooper. And would this be better or worse than if the Jays just went into the draft with Baseball America’s 1st year player draft rankings and took the next highest rated player with each of their picks?

            Maybe my beef should really be with Andrew Tinnish, however I just don’t get the praise that gets heaped on LaCava when this system struggles at either identifying talent in the draft and/or developing players.

          • @Peter DeMarco

            I don’t think your beef should be with either, seeing as how the Jays have one of the highest ranked farm systems in the league.

            Not to mention that JPR was the GM for a number of those 10 years and his reputation for overriding the advice of his advisers is well documented. Not to mention his gutting of the scouting department which left the organization with less good information on which to make picks.

            Anyways, you’re clearly just looking for a patsy on whom to pin the blame for a problem that doesn’t even really exist.

  31. This shows me that either AA or Tinnish has failed spectacularly. AA, by short-sightedly dealing lottery tickets that the team invested heavily in for marginal major league talent, or Tinnish, by scouting/drafting players that became duds within 1 calendar year of being drafted (an extra year for Wojo). Either way, there’s a serious problem here.

    • How does it show they failed? They bought lottery tickets with what they thought were the best odds/payouts available. After a year they may have realized a few of the lottery tickets didn’t have as good odds or as good payouts as they had initially thought, so they found someone who thought differently about the odds/payouts, and they made a deal.

      No failing involved, only an idiot doesn’t update his expectations as more information becomes available.

      • Did you read my post or did you stop reading at AA? It’s not a scouting/drafting failure that their lottery tickets that they invested $3 million in at the outset were deemed to be duds within one calendar year? It’s not like they got these guys at random. They drafted them in these slots, gave them the signing bonuses, and have assessed them to be failures within one year. You’re acting like it’s completely random that Comer, Musgrove, Wojo et al. have regressed/not met expectations (if it’s even true that this is true, which we don’t know right now).

    • How do you seriously in the same sentence call them “lottery tickets” while bemoaning the fact that they’ve decided they’re not paying off.

      There is no serious problem. At all.

      • I’m not bemoaning the fact that they’ve decided they’re not paying off. I’m talking about two different scenarios.

        (1) Where they haven’t determined whether these guys are busts are not, and are trading lottery tickets. In that situation, I think it’s ill-advised to trade said lottery tickets for someone who very likely would have been non-tendered by the Astros anyways, a would-be FA and David Carpenter.

        (2) They’ve assessed that these guys are going nowhere, and are looking to extract (whatever little) value while they can. In that case, Tinnish/Lacava or whoever is ultimately in charge of the scouting aspect of the draft has failed in their jobs of assessing draft talent. It’s possible I just don’t understand how this scouting/player development thing works, but I don’t think it’s normal for a team to decide these guys are busts within one year of drafting them. If these guys are 2008 or 2009 draftees and the team has had them for 3 or 4 years before deciding they are lost causes, I understand that. If say, Chad Jenkins, was the PTBNL, I get that. I’m just alarmed that they’ve drafted guys and spent so much signing bonus money on guys they presumably thoroughly scouted and assessed, only to find out within 1 year that these guys are busts and that it wasn’t worth finding out what these guys are going forward rather than cashing out now in the form of Happ/Lyon/Carpenter.

        Obviously there are no guarantees, but this is like the Snider/Lincoln thing. I would have liked to see them ride them out a little longer to see which direction they went in a couple years or rode to the grave with these guys.

        I’d rather see these guys turn into Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson with the off-chance they turn into something useable on the ML roster. Ultimately, they’ve cashed these guys in for questionable value. If this was the maximum value available for these guys collectively, I would rather have rolled the dice with them.

        • It’s fair to hold the opinion that you’d rather have rolled the dice with them. It’s just overstating the case that there’s a “serious problem” just because SOME of the lottery tickets the Jays drafted haven’t panned out, regardless of the time frame.

          Comer was highly touted out of high school, and there is quite literally no possible way for ANY organization to predict that he was going to lose 5 MPH off his fastball in his first year of pro ball. That’s just shitty luck, which is to be expected with some lottery ticket picks.

          So yeah, I don’t disagree that it might have been fine to roll the dice on these guys, I just take issue with your assertion that it reflects some organizational flaw. No organization could have predicted any better.

        • 99% of prospects fail to impact the majors

          maybe more

          the Jays are not failing at anything

          • So why did we acquire so many picks? AA seems to think having more prospects than the next team increases your competitve advantage.

            I’m not sure that trading five of them away for a number 5 starter is a completely consistent strategy.

          • @GilFisher

            You just explained it yourself. Having more prospects increases your competitive advantage precisely because you end up with redundancies that you can trade for established Major Leaguers which, regardless of whether he’s a #5 starter or a swing man, Happ is and which these prospects may never be.

            Sounds pretty consistent to me.

          • Again, I have no problem with a player failing. I just don’t think it’s normal for high draft picks (particularly prep arms) to be deemed to be a failure or traded for value that implies that they are seen as such, within one year of being drafted.

          • @Brumfield. Only some 50% of 1st round picks accumulate even 1 season of MLB experience – and that includes the top 10 picks who are exponentially more likely to succeed than the remainder of the round (see Victor Wang). Recalibrate your expectations.

  32. Im happy AA started trading prospects but for these scrubs?? WTF?? They traded a shitload of prospect pitching depth. I dont care that comer’s velo is down. Hes young and you cant come to a conclusion about him this fast. Same with musgrove. I could live with wojo being in this trade but thats it. This has to be one of aa’s worst trades. Up with francisco for napoli

    • “I dont care that comer’s velo is down. Hes young and you cant come to a conclusion about him this fast. Same with musgrove.”

      That comment cuts both ways though. Just as you can’t conclude that he’ll be bad, you can’t conclude that he’ll be good. As such, it’s very hard to give a definite assessment of this deal at this very point in time, as the value of the key assets going to Houston are, as you note, totally in flux.

      However, regardless of whether or not these players are underperforming this season (and they are), there’s still a very high chance they fail to make any meaningful contributions in the majors.

    • “ou cant come to a conclusion about him this fast”

      Why not? I am sure AA and his staff have estimates of the probability of success for pitching prospects who lose that much velocity in their first season of pro-ball. it could be that his probability of becoming a major leaguer went from small to very, very small.

      • Hes just so young and you never know. His velo can increase with some changes in mechanics. Teams always say they need 5 years to truly evaluate a draft. The jays gave it just over 1. They definitely messed up in this trade.

  33. What a lot of you don’t seem to understand, is that although we only got three (3) relievers in that trade, we still got MLB ready talent. You might not think much of Happ as he’s a 4-5 starter, but a 4-5 starter in the Majors is worth a lot more than some prospect in Low A ball. That’s why it required a number of prospects. Those guys may never make the majors…

    That said, I believe the Jays are no longer very high on those 3 pitchers considering the big 3 at Lansing, Norris, Stroman, Osuna, etc. and therefore they decided to get Major League talent while they could before those prospects’ values completely diminished.

    As for the Snider trade, I understand how soooo many of you have Maple Boners for the guy…but you seem to forget that he was out of options. Which means, that if he continued to strike out at alarming rates for the rest of the season, which he likely would have, then he would have had ZERO value next year! So if he then didn’t make the team out of spring training, the Jays would have lost him in waivers, or would have had to reluctantly place him in LF which would have likely created a black hole which spewed out the occasional HR. I personally think AA did a decent job and acquired a reliever in Lincoln who is under team control for years and will anchor the back of the bullpen. Even if he has given up some Lincoln Logs at the start of his tenure here, I think he’ll end up working out just fine for the team.

  34. Just a rough estimate but the Jays spent $3.1 million in bonus money on Comer, Wojo and Musgrove ($1.65, .95 and .50 respectively)

    so how does this money balance out when you expect that Astros were buying minor league depth??>

  35. I gotta say…I’m starting to wonder why make this trade in the first place? They better hope David Carpenter turns out to be Heath Bell (prior to this year that is!) and is a late bloomer, stud end of game RP. Happ isn’t even guranteed a spot in the rotation for next year (!!) and as good as Lyon has been since coming over (RIDICULOUS K/IP) he’s mostly gone. So what was the point??? I’d like to think a highly rated Catcher plus some B level prospects + 2 guys recently drafted as sandwich picks + 2 (proven *cough*) veterans would fetch more than this?

    I think seeing Comer added as the PTBNL has officially put the lipstick on this pig!

  36. For thoose bitching and moaning can someone hame the last drafted sup pick the Jays made to play for the JAYS AND YEAR DRAFTED

    • JP Arencibia?

      • opps, he was an actual 1st rounder

        • Cecil – 2007

          • Dustin McGown in 2000.
            No sup picks in ’01, ’02, ’03, ’04, ’05, ’06, ’08

            Paxton in ’09 (#51 on KLaw’s preseason top 100 list)

            Aaron Sanchez (#25 on KLaw’s midseason top 50), Noah Syndergaard and Asher Woj in 2010

            Musgrove and Comer (among others) in 2011.

    • aS i SAID WHO HAVE THE jAYS DRAFTED sUP PICK TO MAKE IT???? NOONE SO STOP WITH THE WE WERE ROBBED WE GAVE UP PROSPECTS LIKELY TO NEVER MAKE IT FOR A 4 STARTER AND RELIEVER ID SAY THATS PRETTY DECENT.

      • ? What the fuck are you talking about, man?

        From 2000 to 2008 the Jays had 2 supplemental picks TOTAL – Brett Cecil and Dustin McGowan. Both of them have played for the Jays. 2 supplemental round picks – 2 major league baseball players.

        All of their other supplemental picks (that they managed to sign after drafting them) are mostly highschoolers drafted in the last 2 years, so of course they’re not in the MLB yet, dummy.

        PS, your caps lock is on.

  37. Just so I’m clear…we acquire a bunch of crappy players which hurt the team’s performance for the better part of two years solely to accumulate compensation picks, we use all of those picks on pitching, then we bundle up all those compensation pitchers to acquire what will likely end up being 2 months of J.A. Happ?

    I don’t care what he’s done or what kind of scouting information they have, that can only be called a failure.

    • You are not clear. There are still other many compensation picks in the system, not traded for JA Happ (and David Carpenter), and Happ is under control for much longer than two months.

      • Whether it was all or many, his point, while dripping with sarcasm, has some validity.

        We invested a lot in obtaining these players, that we quickly disposed of for completely fungible assets.

        • Please explain how we invested a lot in obtaining them? All we had to do was watch some shitty, over the hill players play shittily in what were undoubtedly non-contending years.

          • The Jays acquired and signed players for the draft pick when they leave, imo. There’s a cost involved there. It’s a strategy I completely supported. Drafting more players than anyone else is a way to gain a competitve advantage. I don’t think you spend that competitive advantage on fungible assets like swing men and relievers.

          • Except they paid that shitty player a high salary for half the season, then paid the supp pick a million + to sign. If the team wants to be cheap with money, they are not doing a great job.

          • @GilFisher and jaysball

            The cost for acquiring the players was often so negligible as to be laughable (I know… Napoli…) and it’s not your money anyways. It was basically using that money to buy draft picks. Don’t give me any bullshit about that money being better used elsewhere, because we all know AA wasn’t about to go spending on FAs in those years anyways. He was basically buying draft picks for cash.

            Nobody said the team wants to be cheap with money. They want to be smart with it. Big difference.

            I would argue that swing men and relievers may be fungible assets, but good ones with years of team control are not. If they were our bullpen wouldn’t have been a revolving door of suckage for the past couple of years. Besides, you spend the competitive advantage on areas of need, regardless of what they might be.

      • My point being that there are much easier and cheaper ways to acquire the J.A. Happs of the world. Also, you said yourself that the Jays should prepare to walk away from J.A. Happ this offseason because he won’t be worth raise he’ll be due through arbitration.

  38. He’s also put himself in a situation where he is going to be handing away more assets for nothing. There are 41 players under contract next year, without Jimenez being added to the 40 man. This doesn’t include replacing or resigning Frasor, Lyon Villa, Vizquel, or adding FA starters. There seems to be a loss of direction right now, I just hope they right the ship before some of these lost assets really hurt them.

    • Read the update.

    • Lots of shite on our 40-man right now. Jesse Chavez is on there.

      • yes there are plenty to drop. Chavez (who we missed out on a $1M last year from Japan, bet they wish they jumped on that now), Beck, Laffey, Abreu & McCoy. And guys like Litsch that should clear waivers if released However there are still hopes for FA pitchers, solid 2B option (or backup if we go with Hech) & LF. It’s looking more and more like we drop or trade guys for non 40 man options or end up with a lot of minor league signees on our club next year after we put all the TJS guys on the 60 day in March (which will happen anyway)

    • Interesting. That could actually explain all of this. Does that mean we’ll see more of this next year?

      Still, not sure why Happ was the best he could get.

  39. Comer was a supplemental pick for Kevin Gregg
    Woj was a supplemental pick for Rod Barajas
    Musgrove was a supplement pick for John Buck

    Make of that what you will.

  40. I’d much rather have 50 young pitchers whose upside is a #4-#5 or 6th inning guy in the majors clogging up the minor leagues than dealing a few of them for major league help.

    One of those pitching prospects will go 10-14 with a 5.00 ERA in the majors and then you will be sorry that we dealt him to the Astors

  41. All we need to be concerned with is 2013, 2014 and 2015. Worry about later, much, much later. Not taking advantage of Bautista’s good health (minor wrist problem aside) and effectiveness while he still has it is showing very poor judgement. Encarnacion, Romero and Morrow are in the 25-31 years of age bracket where players are most effective.

    Houston’s Team will suck for a long time and the GM will be desparate. These prospects, that were traded, will be rushed by Houston to the Majors, if necessary. Under more normal circumstances, they would not be a Blue Jay in 2013,02014 and 2015, if not traded.

    Hate spring eternal on this site, Wait ’till A.A. moves someone very good this offseason in a trade: Syndergaard, Gose, d’Arnaud and others for just one player.

  42. Awful trade only getting worse. Lots of prospect depth thrown away for arguably the worst starting pitcher in the league. If the plan is for Happ to start in the AL he will be lucky to end up with an era below ten. If AA is this desperate he might as well pick random fans to start every fifth day. I’d be a lot more excited for that then watching garbage like Happ get shelled.

    • How dare you claim someone else is a worse pitcher than me!

      • Warning Pat Tabler stat!

        Happ is 3rd worst among 119 qualified (190 innings per) starters in ERA over the past 2 years

        Found this stat somewhere else, to lazy to research any advanced stats.

    • That would be fun to watch, I admit. I still disagree wholeheartedly with your assessment of this trade though. I don’t think it’s great or awful, just kind of meh.

  43. Terrible trade for the Jays. Would expect to give up less for Lyon and Happ.

  44. From a recent BA scouting report:

    Robson was replaced by righthander Kevin Comer in the fifth. Comer was taken in the first supplemental round in 2011 and handed a $1.65 million bonus to sign rather than attend Vanderbilt. He has excellent upside thanks to an extremely projectable frame at 6-foot-3, 205 pounds with very wide shoulders and lean limbs. He sat 88-89 with his fastball, which had good life to his arm side.

    “He’s a strong kid,” Caceres said. “He has a good body. I like the way he pitches. He’s aggressive, he sinks the ball pretty well. His changeup, that’s the one thing we really emphasize with the younger kids. They don’t throw a changeup much in high school. That’s one of our big things—they’ve got to come in throwing their changeup. (Comer) worked on it a lot in spring training and it looked pretty good the other night.”

    Comer’s changeup featured good fade and sat in the low 80s while he mixed in a sharp breaking ball in the mid 70s.

    • Yeah a low 80s change is good if you’re pitching in the low 90s. If you’re struggling to touch 90 it’s just two shitty fastballs.

      Did you have a point in posting that?

      • LOL!!!

      • It’s a pretty decent scouting report from someone who saw him pitch. Everybody seems to be dumping on a teenager as a has been.

        The fact is, scouts still see high upside.

        • As soon as I see a scout say things like “good body” and “projectable frame” I pretty much lose interest. It’s about stuff and results.

          Not to mention Caceres isn’t a scout. He’s the fucking pitching coach on the team. As if he’s going to say a bad word about him…

  45. too bad they didnt trade Gose, he looks awful. should have left him in minors

  46. I just want to be clear on what the complaints are with this deal. They seem to be:

    1) It’s too much to give up for what they got.
    2) It’s a waste of high draft picks.
    3) We should have been able to get a higher ceiling player for the quantity/quality of prospects traded.
    4) It’s too soon to trade those particular prospects.
    5) AA is panicking or has lost his way.

    Does that about sum it up? Anything I’m missing?

    • Swing men and relievers are fungible assets, shouldn’t trade upside to acquire, unless in a playoff run.

      • @GilFisher I’m more convinced of that in theory than in practice. What’s a successful example of this? I think control is a big factor here. Happ is controlled through next year, Carpenter through 2018 (as are Lincoln & Delabar) FWIW.

        I think the fungibility of relievers is over-estimated, and from a team building standpoint, that philosophy leaves the bullpen open to being a significant question mark from year to year – something it appears AA is trying to avoid.

        @Snider’s Stache – I pretty well agree.

        @afdg – why?

    • 6) The astros were the worst team to trade with.

    • Answers….

      #1 – agreed -didn’t get that much in deal, but not sure they gave up much either
      #2 – Don’t sell or throw away the $100 jacket that doesn’t fit you anymore. Better for it to waste away in your closet (or low minors)
      #3 – Just like there are people willing to pay huge money for that junk in your garage
      #4 – Just because a song sucks the first ten times you hear it – doesn’t mean it might be a cool song one day
      #5 – AA forgot that keeping fan favorites who stink will please more morons than actually improving the long-term position of the team

  47. Hey guys, see, look, I suck now. It IS possible to win a trade with me.

    …now will you let me talk with you about Justin Upton?

  48. NOT EVERY DRAFT PICK MAKES THE MAJOR LEAGUES. WHY DO ALL YOU GUYS FREAK OUT EVERY TIME A PROSPECT IS TRADED? THERE IS AN INCREDIBLY HIGH CHANCE THEY WILL NOT AMOUNT TO ANYTHING!

    breathe

    seriously though, every time AA trades a prospect it’s the end of the world. if 20% of the players AA drafts end up on the big league roster then he will be a messiah. keep that in mind next time you’re about to step onto that ledge.

    • Thanks for that pro tip. Never realized most prospects fail. I think AA should stick with this years plan and trade all of them for the worse players on the worse teams. Let’s see how much garbage AA can collect. We can call him the trashman.

      • you just proved my point. you’re a parody of yourself.

        the sky is falling! the sky is falling!

        • Write some more all caps drivel.

          • my last comment didnt even have a single capital letter in it, nor will this one.

            sorry if i offended you by disagreeing with what your opinion is, but there is no need to be a dick.

            please dont take the internet so seriously, its not healthy or conducive to long term relationships.

    • But at this point in their careers its impossible to judge who will be a quality major leaguer, some players take longer to develop and some fall apart at later levels.

      Lets look at 2010 and 2011 high draft pitching.
      Sanchez, Syndergaard, Nicolino, DeScalifani, Musgrove, Comer, Woj

      Obviously the “big three” have a SLIGHTLY higher chance of making an impact, but if 1 in 10 prospects make it, and you trade 3 of them long before they reach their peak, then you drastically reduce your odds of having a prospect pan out.

  49. Fun (and very sad) fact:

    J.A. Happ has more WAR this season than Henderon Alvarez and Ricky Romero.

  50. You all are jealous of my 1.51 WHIP in AA

  51. Garbage in…garbage out. Or in this case spare parts with a few years of control for Cordero, Francisco and IMO questionable prospects. Even if you add Gose or Hech to this equation you will never get that elite guy we’ve been pining for for weeks. We’ve established a great core of players to build around although all but 2 are on the dl. These guys like Happ, etc. are just role players who can be easily replaced if they under perform. This trade is for the next couple of years when we are hopefully healthy and competitive for the playoffs.

    And will we need to spend $$$ on a SP when Morrow was showing that he can be the staff ace and RR will finally get some run support?

  52. I just find it hilarious that the exact same idiots that shit on AA for being obsessed with obtaining high ceiling, controllable prospects instead of major league talent are the first ones to call for his head as soon as he trades those prospects FOR MAJOR LEAGUE TALENT.

    If any of the prospects in this deal turn out to be JA Happ they will have maximized their potential. Odds are it’ll only be one, if any. Don’t forget, they also got Lyon (who may yet be resigned) and a much closer to the majors prospect in Carpenter. They also shed Coco and Fransisco. All for a few guys that might, maybe, some day, if everything goes perfectly be JA Happ who, in case you forgot, is already JA Fucking Happ who is capable of contributing to a Major League ball club in some capacity.

    I’m still perfectly happy to call this trade a draw. We traded future, potential mediocrity for current, established mediocrity, which was better than the current, established awfulness that we had.

    • Nobody in the Houston trade except for Lyon, who is gone anyway, is AL East talent. I thought the main point of AA’s rebuild was all stars at all positions? Obviously an All star #5 is unattainable and not necessary, but Happ is a #5 on every team in baseball, that is not good enough for a team that needs to beat the Yanks, Sox, Rays and now the O’s

      • Then maybe he ends up in the bullpen in the AL East… which is still about as much as can fairly be expected of any of the traded prospects should they absolutely maximize their potential. Not to mention that would be years down the road when the Jays may or may not be in a position to benefit from an immediate injection of Major League talent.

      • Oh yeah, and who says Lyon is gone? Likely perhaps, but unless you have a crystal ball stating it as fact is absurd. And if you do have a crystal ball, quit holding out on the rest of us :P

    • Some of the comments have been ridiculous. Especially those crying about AA spending one or two million in signing bonuses for draftees. That’s the best money a GM can spend in all of baseball. There are a lot of sickly-pallored morons around here that can’t understand that spending money on high draft picks that don’t pan out 80% of the time is still the best way to go about it. I KNEW some people would shit on AA two years after his first draft when some of those guys didn’t pan out or got traded.

  53. everyone needs to settle the fuck down on the inclusion of kevin comer… we’re talking about a kid that looks the part but hasn’t been right since the start of his HS season last spring…

    • Missing the point. The point is JA Happ is fungible. Brad Lincoln is fungible. These players can be acquired in the offseason or from within quite easily. We should go back to drafting college players if we don’t see the value in upside.

      • no, you are missing the point. if you don’t like the trade… that is fine, whatever…. but the inclusion of kevin comer probably shouldn’t sway your opinion much either way. we’re talking about a kid who hasn’t had good stuff in nearly two full seasons.

        lincoln for snider is an entirely different matter.

        • Why was he drafted and handed $1.6M then

          • you’d probably have to ask someone in the organization… i didn’t give him any of my money. lol.

            what i know about comer is that he flashed good stuff early in his grade 12 season… then hardly pitched and looked poor – think mid 80s velocity – when he did later in his HS season. he is from new jersey so it is a very short season. (i think someone posted his BA draft write up earlier in this thread)

            then i heard reports that his velocity was way down all this year. so it all adds up to a kid who hasn’t shown good stuff since early spring 2011.

      • Are your posts sponsored by the owners of the word ‘fungible’?

  54. How many people unfollowed Kevin Comer on twitter?

  55. sad to see him go. he was a real up and “comer”.

    nailed it.

  56. Look., I don’t know very much about Happ and I know less than nothing about the guys we traded for him. But , here is the thing: Reading this article, the writer was angry, then he seems to calm down a bit when he found out that the ptbnl was a bit of a dud. Nothing wrong with that. But what infuriates me is the need of everyone to have an opinion. Maybe AA made a bad trade. Maybe this was the foundation for something that would have happened if Jose hadnt been injured and we were a legit 2 games out of the WC. But here is the thing: You gotta assume that a MLB GM and his staff know more about the players recieved and sent away than even the above average fans that write and post at this site. No need to jump the gun and have an opinion. AA obviously knows what he is doing, so I assume building a solid bullpen and having a 5th starter/ injury replacment and very solid long relief pitcher in Happ trumps anything else these prospects could offer us. Keep in mind too that he has to manage a certain amount of contracts and consider options, relative value, future value, where the teams at etc. No need to lose your shit over this trade. Its not like he traded your favorite future star for a reliever, am I right?

  57. Hey be nice these guys were our saviors (sarcasim) As AA has said prospects are to help the team or get help for major league tram. Happ is decent , Lyons was brought in to help in 12 in case we hung in and Carpenter is a depth pen man thats closer to majors than any of the guys we gave up.
    Happ and Carpenter will help this team in 2013 none of the guys we gave up will help until 2015. We also did not give up anyone HIGHLY thought of.

  58. I’d say I’m surprised at the stupidity of commenters on this blog; but when you have a site named ‘Drunk Jays Fans’ and a whole bunch of extra buzz heading into the season I guess people shifted from posting on TSN & Sportsnet to here.

    SIMMER DOWN.

    Just because Baseball America puts out two mega-lists a year doesn’t mean a prospect’s value isn’t constantly changing. It’s a continuum.

    In the offseason, I remember myself and Fullmer talking about what the Jays should consider giving up for Gavin Floyd. I suggested I’d have no issue with McGuire & Drabek to which Fullmer agreed since he, like me, isn’t obsessed by prospect porn. Of course, people are all “why not just package one more guy and get King Felix?”

    While Floyd isn’t having a spectacular year, is there anyone who wouldn’t trade those two minor league phenoms for a proven mid-rotation starter right now?

    Name me one prospect that AA has given up that he should have regretting moving. Wallace? Stewart? Molina? And those guys were somewhat well regarded.

    EVERY team drafts players who have more value when they were drafted than one year later. These comments would be less ridiculous if you guys weren’t just looking at AA in a vacuum.

    Think of it another way; if AA simply traded one of the players he acquired in Brandon Lyon, you don’t think he could get a single prospect better than any he gave up? I’m quite confident he can.

    • terrible example, Mcguire was a low ceiling high floor pitcher who nobody thought would be more than a 4 or 5. Drabek was coming off a season with some of the ugliest displays of pitching I have ever seen.
      Floyd at his worst is 5x better than Happ

  59. The Blue Jays got screwed on the Happ deal…. They sent 4 guys just like me to Houston. The Jays could draft the next Bryce Harper if they have five of me in their rotation

  60. Wow seems to be the word of the day. I really hated the this trade when it happened, called it brutal in fact and got told off for saying so lol It’s obviously got worse with another prospect heading to Houston to get essentially a guy who looks like he’s 2011 Brett Cecil, a rental reliever and a fairly raw prospect.

    While I still don’t completely understand why he made the move I think you have to look at the context it was made. The Jays at the time were still hovering right around .500 and were only a handful of games out of a playoff spot and there was still hopes that Morrow would have been back within 2 weeks and Bautista not far behind. There were no other additional hitting injuries and the offense was still doing well. Where they were getting killed was the bullpen and the rotation.

    With that said, one has to wonder if the trade wasn’t AA’s first move of desperation in his tenure. I wonder if the example of Baltimore’s smoke and mirrors routine gave management hope that a revamped pen to go with their top notch offense might have allowed them to pull off a similar hot streak. Personally I think the idea has some merits but it would still be a huge gamble. If one of the pieces had some real upside or if Lyon was under control another year then the sting would certainly be less than it is. As a starter Happ might be better than Cecil but that doesn’t say much because I think if he’s your 5th starter next year you’re going to have problems. As a reliever especially vs Lefties is Happ better than Cecil? I am less certain about that. The Jays had to spend another year to find out if Cecil had the goods or not. Why on earth would they essentially duplicate that failed experiment again? The other thing that bothers me about such a scenario is that, at least to me, AA had essentially a free pass for this seasons poor results due to all the injuries. With that in mind and 11 days left until the deadline I guess the pressure of the situation became too much to handle and the trade was made.

    • did you listen to jaystalk the other night where wilner said “if oliver wants to come back”. stil think I’m pulling shit out of my ass?

      oh and you were telling me how great the bullpen is? lincoln era is now 6.00

      please go on.

      • Lets see. He hasn’t decided to leave yet so you’re premature in your gloating. I imagine a lot of what AA does this winter will have some effect on that.

        And I can’t believe you’re going to quote me a reliever ERA that’s been accumulated over a total of 9 fucking innings. What’s his ERA for the year? What’s Lincoln’s ERA as a reliever once you take out his couple of starts? SSS eh? Oh but wait you did that already when you quoted Delabar’s Jays home stats after 2.2 innings. Strangely you said nothing when he blew away 6 guys over 2 shutout innings (righties and lefties) in his next outing. Quelle fucking surprise. Please continue to have no patience and by all means please continue to be a whiny bitch.

        • z not gloating, you claimed that my comment on oliver was baseless which in fact it was not.

          I pointed out to you that these guys were not proven and lincolns two bad outings demonstrates that. you can’t just excluse his starts and act like they didn’t count. He’s been mediocre for his career. He padded his stats against a lot of cream puff teams.

          In fact you are the one that’s impatient because I said all along that the jays need more depth in the bullpen because these guys are not proven and you told me they were.

          I need to see these guys pitch well in the AL against teams like the yankees, sox, rays, orioles before I can have confidence in them for next year.

          • Yes 2 bad outings invalidate a season’s worth of results. Please continue.

            Your claim Oliver is leaving is baseless until he actually leaves. If and when he does I’ll tip the hat to you not before.

      • As for the pen the ERA for the month of August looks better than all but one other month and the peripherals blow all the other months away.

        1.00 WHIP
        9.8 K/9
        4.33 K/BB
        0.75 HR/9

        So yes things definitely heading in the right direction. Cry some more please.

  61. Funny how AA is a dud and we could get the next Bryce Harper when I read just the other day that Brett Lawrie is a better long term player. Interesting.

  62. So the Astros dumped salary AND got prospects??

    Salaries coming back from Astros ($2.78 milllion – 1/3rd of 8.33 million of Lyon, Happ and adding Carpenter to 40 man) vs salaries going to Astros ($2.01 million – 1/3rd of the 2 Franciscos)

    so the Jays took on an extra $750K plus waived the $3.1 million sunk cost bonus money (unless that is spread out over years and becomes Astros responsibility)

    Actually, I don’t know – are bonuses paid out all in 1 shot or spread out and the Stros assume the responsibility from the Jays?

    • You realize that trading Jose Bautista for Musgrove, Perez & Comer would also be dumping salary and getting prospects. It’s not hard to do.

  63. Hey where are all the geniuses who told me how great the farm system is and how high we are ranked and how we are going to be unstoppable perennial contenders with that farm that keeps sprouting stud players? 3 years later and nothing in the majors.

    Someone please tell me who all these stud players are? Who is going to help the team next year, darnaud and that’s it?

    I’m sick and tired of hearing alex say you don’t build through free agency and then all his picks turn into busts. He’s still riding the coattails of JPR and has done little to improve the team.

  64. Well you can start by pointing out that there are six levels of minor leagues–
    Rookie League
    Short-season A
    Low A
    High A
    Double A
    Triple A

    For an 18-year old drafted out of high school, which is the type of prospect AA targets, one year per level is typical for a prospect, though in a good year you might see a prospect jump two levels. Thus the average prospect takes five years to go from draft to the big leagues, and would be 23 when they make their debut.

    You correctly pointed out that it’s been three years since AA took over. AA shouldn’t be seeing the firstfruits of his harvest for at least two more years, provided he’s doing it correctly.

    Obviously college players like Jenkins and McGuire don’t take as long, but those two weren’t exactly the star prospects on whom the high farm ranking was based.

  65. Jason Frasor was re-acquired in the off-season for Myles Jaye and Daniel Webb – two absolute no-name prospects. AA gave up 4 minor league players better than Jaye and Webb to land Happ and (likely) a couple months of Brandon Lyon.

    Is Happ worth THAT much more than Frasor?

    • Well, it was only one year of Frasor versus two and a half of Happ, and you’re missing the key fact that the prospects moved to Houston appear to be rapidly losing value, and are being moved before they’re not even able to bring back a package this modest.

      • ^ This. Plus the fact that Happ can start and Frasor can’t.

      • Fair enough, Stoets

      • I love the inconsistent logic here: So we are to believe that our scouts are good enough to know after one year of having these pitchers in our system whether or not they will ever make it to the majors as bullpen arms or #5 starters. Yet these same scouts are the ones that thought so highly of these pitchers in the first place that they recommended them to be picked within the first round of the draft. Give me a break.

        Nobody uses a first or second round pick on high school arm unless they think it projects to the front of the rotation. So we are to believe that their skill level from that to below #5 starter/middle reliever in 12 months of pitching at single A? Come on…

        Either there is a serious problem with the current evaluation, or there was a serious problem with the initial evaluation. Both evaluations cannot be correct and either way the scouts have let us down.

        • Re:
          Nobody uses a first or second round pick on high school arm unless they think it projects to the front of the rotation.

          I don’t think that’s true at all. This isn’t the NBA.

          Also, Stilson was drafted in the first round and will probably be a reliever

          • Actually it is. When a team has an immediate need for someone in the middle or back end of the rotation they draft college kids because they are older, closer to the majors, and have longer track records so that theoretically you have a better idea of what you’re getting (Deck McGuire). No team takes a flyer in the first 50 picks on a 17 year old because they’re hoping that he’ll be their #5 starter in 8 years.

            As for Stilson, you’re basically proving my point. Many first round draft choices don’t work out and end up being relievers, but that doesn’t prove that the intent when they were drafted was to have that be the case.

  66. So I guess its safe to say people don’t care for JA Happ then? One more angle to this trade, because I don’t even want to dignify the slobbering “but this has a 9.78% chance of costing us between 0.5-1 WAR on the 2018-2021 Blue Jays” crowd – seriously guys, prospect porn is fun, but it doesn’t compare to warm, major league pussy – but I digress.

    My point is that the beauty of JA Happ goes beyond the fact that he’s not a total shitballer like Chavez and Cecil and those other fuckers that we ran out at the low point of our pitching (lookin at the Millwakee series). He’s low-paid, under team control, arb eligible and completely replaceable! It means that instead of paying fucking Joe Saunders too much money for too many years to block prospects we can just keep underpaying Happ to be mediocre every year until his replacement is good enough. Its called flexibility, and its EXACTLY what you want from the back end of your rotation.

    • Where does this crazy idea that Happ is “mediocre” come from? He’s the worst starting pitcher in the division. Who cares about team control when what it’s controlling shouldn’t be playing.

      • Actually, the worst starting pitcher in the division is either Jeremy Hellickson or Henderson Alvarez, depending on which overall pitching stat you prefer–Hellickson is worse on 2 out of 3.

      • Guess you haven’t seen me or my buddy Tommy Hunter pitch?

  67. I wonder where these guys will line up in the astros prospect ranking.

  68. Why are people shouting about the lost upside? To people not realize what upside is in these drafts? You take about 5 shots to get a star player, and then maybe one of them works out. Most of the rest turn out to be garbage after playing lower pro ball, and that’s what AA is giving up.

    And to those stating that we could have added an elite prospect and got an elite pitcher, quit dreaming you idiot.

  69. before anyone loses their mind:
    Don`t think prospects are the be all and end all. The odds are (overwhelmingly) that none of the prospects given up will ever make the majors, especially since they all have major flaws and were not top picks…….. If anyone had to bet, the smart money will be that happ will end up as the the best pitcher by far in this trade…. He was a better prospect just 2 years ago than any of the ones given up by AA….. It doen`t mean Happ will be a star but he can be average

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