Where’s the money, Anthopoulos?

As Parkes just posted over at Getting Blanked, MLB has announced an extension of their national (US) broadcast TV partnerships with FOX and TBS, which will add a cool $6.8-billion to be spread amongst the 30 ballclubs starting in 2014, until the deal expires in 2021.

Money quote [Note: heh.]:

“This means that each team, beginning in 2014 and lasting until 2021, will receive almost $52 million annually, which is more than double what clubs received under the previous agreements with ESPN, FOX and TBS.”

Granted, those deals don’t kick in right away. Still, add in the fact that, per a Bruce Dowbiggin piece in the Globe and Mail back in February, the Jays received $36-million from their parent company for TV rights this season– a figure that’s been closely monitored by MLB, in order to make sure there was no funny business under the old revenue sharing format– and, even assuming no change to that figure, you’re looking at the club receiving $88-million, or more, before they step onto the field a game.

Um… that’s kinda a lot.

And that’s before any additional in-stadium ad revenue, before gate receipts– which, according to Forbes, accounted for $39-million in 2011, when the club drew more than 200K fewer fans than this year– or other additional revenue streams.

Now, clearly the dollars required to run an MLB franchise aren’t wholly represented by the MLB payroll, and I’m really just talking ballpark figures here, rather than shoddily attempting any kind of mathematical heavy lifting, but for 2014– the season after next!– that’s a starting point of at least $127-million in theoretical revenue for a team that’s currently running a payroll of $83,739,200 according to Cot’s.

The 2014 Jays, as the new national TV deals kick in, have just $47.5-million committed so far– the entirety of that in the form of guaranteed contracts with their core group of Jose Bautista, Brandon Morrow, Edwin Encarnacion, Ricky Romero, and Sergio Santos (um… plus Jeff Mathis and Dustin McGowan).

As things stand now, heading into 2014 the Jays will still have options on Yunel Escobar, Adam Lind, and Casey Janssen, and they’ll have third-year arbitration guys in Colby Rasmus and JA Happ. JP Arencibia, if he’s still here, will be in his first arb year, and most of the young core will be even farther back in the process than that. Meaning, the committments will go up naturally from that $47.5-million figure, but certainly not enough on their own to push it anywhere near the kind of dollars we can plainly see will be coming in.

In other words: Paul Beeston wanted to see revenue growth before starting to ramp up spending? Well here it fucking is.

It’s guaranteed. It’s going to be there. With the backing of a megalith like Rogers it can be worked with now, moved around to suit more immediate needs. The longer a club waits to jump whole hog into this new economic environment, the farther behind they’re going to find themselves, as the majority of teams– those who aren’t so singularly focussed on achieving the most robust bottom line for shareholders– begin to spend this cash, providing player salaries a lucrative “market correction.” We’ve already seen all kinds 0f clubs locking up their best young players at rates commensurate with current payroll levels, not ones potentially exploded by what Parkes says is “more than double what clubs received under the previous agreements with ESPN, FOX and TBS.”

The fact that the Jays could claim– spurious as it may be– they didn’t foresee these types of national TV deals on the horizon makes convenient cover for the fact that the club has spent so modestly in the last two years, but that cover is now blown. And while it makes me hopeful that we’re perhaps starting to see an acknowledgement of this in the way that Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos have been talking this month about needing to spend this winter– a corner they intentionally backed themselves into with their ultra-conservative approach to last off-season — it makes it all the more potentially infuriating to contemplate the very real possibility of them not acting– or not being able to act– with the urgency they plainly need to.

That they risk following the JP Ricciardi course into bad contracts is no longer terribly relevant. AA’s diligent work in creating a flexible payroll has, at the very least, set the club up to far better handle the odd massive contract gone awry than his predecessor could. This new influx of TV cash should help immensely in that regard, too, if it’s actually deigned acceptable to put it back into the club, rather than the shareholders’ and ownership’s pockets– which obviously would be a damn good thing, because the Jays can’t afford to wait another year before they start making serious free agent over-pays in the hope that they hit on the right guys to take the club to the next level. For the sake of the brand– to put it in terms that the holders of the corporate wallet should be able to understand– that time has to be now.

Comments (103)

  1. Excellent article Stoeten.

    • +1

      I hope Rogers sees the urgency to spend before salaries blow up even more now that clubs are flush with cash.

  2. Hear, hear! Hope jays fans aren’t setting ourselves up for more disappointment. I almost quit giving a shit after the Darvish debacle.

  3. So you’re saying that Rogers is about to get richer…

  4. trade JPA now

    • ain’t gonna happen this year. The only possible replacement is D’arnaud and he is simply too risky coming back after season ending surgery ( surely you don’t intend for them to go full bore with Mathis). TDA will be in the minors at the start of next year and JPA likely still with the Jays.
      I think there is a good chance that TDA ends up being the centrepiece in a big deal and they might throw in Rasmus to get the other team to go for it ( tee hee)

  5. When all that new dough rolls in beginning in 2014 it’s going to cause salary inflation across the league so it’s even more imperative for Rogers to start ponying up this off-season.

  6. You know what these TV deals also prove? That MLB is pulling a tremendous scam right now, especially when teams like the A’s and Rays (and formerly the Expos and Marlins) bitch and moan about playing in shit stadiums that are causing them to lose massive amounts of money. With these TV dollar handouts, every team is at the very least breaking even.

  7. Extend Morrow. Buy out Lawrie. Let them spend the fall and winter being crazy rich people so they have four months to get it out of their system. Do it NOW, not in six months, not next year, NOW. Rogers did NOTHING for this money, the contracts wouldn’t kick in until the money actually arrives and they were gonna have to extend these two anyway, Let’s use a bit of it and eliminate two contract headaches before they become problems.

    • They extended Morrow last January.

    • Even if you dont like Lawrie what’s to buy out? He’s in the final year of his initial contract and being paid 482 K.

      • He’s saying buy out his arb years and sign him to a team friendly contract me thinks.

        • Yep. Lawrie is 22 and he’s an everyday player that will only get better. Buy him out.

          (I didn’t see that there was a $10 mill team option for Morrow in 2015, I thought he would walk after 2014. So he’s cool for now.)

  8. Boston will still have more money to spend and need to fill positions, and have a history of giving large contracts. If you’re a player, where you going to go?

    The Jays will need over the top overpays for the type of signings fans are hoping for. Especially if we’re capped at 5 year deals. I really want to be hopeful but I’m not optimistic.

    • They’ll need overpays for even the mid-tier guys, who are far more realistic. If fans are thinking Greinke or bust, they’re going to have a spectacularly awful winter, I suspect.

      • That’s true based on their track record. But, IF they wanted a Greinke, nobody could out bid them. I suspect AA knows that the new TV money will be invested on the major league roster. He’s basically saying as much because the guy, based his track record, never speaks in specifics.

      • werd.
        It drives me nuts how many fans think FA shopping is like going down the cereal aisle at the groceteria, just tipping whatever you like into your cart and ringing it up. Despite our love for the team, the Jays have not been relevant in most player’s living memories.

        B.J. Ryan redux, come on down. and that’s fine with me. no risk, no reward!

      • Excellent post Stoeten. I have been harping on this issue for a year. You could see a team like Cincinatti which is a much smaller market that Toronto giving Joey Votto 200 million. Not only are the MLB deals getting doubled but the regional cable deals that Cincinatti & San Diego are getting are also at higher rates.

        Rogers has tried to be very conservative in providing Broadcast revenue to the Jays, but it is logical to assume that if the MLB is getting more money from US networks, the Canadian networks would have to pay more to the Jays under regular business conditions.

        Rogers & Beeston must be furious that the MLB made this information public.

        Rogers has spent years convincing fans that the Jays can’t afford any “badcontracts” & thatthe team has to spend minimal amounts in order to survive.

        That game is over. MLB payroll will increase throughout the league. Players will be overpaid , but if the Jays want to compete they will have to do it. The failure of the team to compete over the past 20 years will lead to areturn of
        the AJ Burnett & BJ Ryan deals. However, AA has proven to be smarter at structuring contracts than JP Riccardi. I don’t expect player opt out after 3 year deals, but definitely more dollars & years added to the contracts.

        • you’re an idiot

          • Greinke – meh. I’d rather grab 2 guys at $25 mil per year than Greinke at $20. A rotation of Morrow, Edwin Jackson, Anibal Sanchez, Romero and JA Happ looks damn decent.

            Maybe bring in Swisher to play LF, Ortiz to DH and Jeff Keppinger to play 2B; then package Lind and Escobar for something. Who knows… I think the Jays have a great opportunity this winter to grab some mid-to-high tier free agents and then trade some pieces.

  9. Okay, which free agent should they go after? Doesn’t make sense to just throw money around for the sake of it. Plus this influx of cash doesn’t make the Jays richer than the other clubs, all the clubs are getting the same amount of increase in revenues due to the national TV deal.

    • True, but not all clubs will spend it. If they do, it might have little impact on their roster immediately, perhaps down the road as well.

  10. The problem with the national TV money is that 29 other teams are also reaping the rewards of this windfall. Everybody is suddenly armed with more spending capital for the free agent market. The only thing the national TV deal is good for is the MLBPA. It’s a player’s free agent market for sure now. For teams, the free agent markets are about to get even more competitive. Teams that would be apt to stand pat now have free money to go hogwild on the free agent market. The seemingly limitless Rogers pockets are no longer as much of an advantage.

    If anything, a national TV deal is bad news for the Jays in my opinion. The FA market is about to get flooded with more teams looking to enter the dance. Don’t expect free agents to suddenly flock to Toronto in droves.

  11. That is a lot of talk about revenue’s but not a lot of talk about expenses. Hiring Staff to work the concessions, parking attendants, security, electricity, those “free” gift handouts (bobble heads, hats etc. Property taxes, renovations/maintenance to an old deteriorating Skydome (did you hear they have had issues with the roof?)

    On top of that coaches salaries, minor league payroll, international spending, draft spending, GM/scout salaries.

    That is a lot of expenses that have not been taken into consideration. Meaning last year with the (36M TV + 39M Gate fees) less Player Salaries/Coach Salaries/Scout Salaries/GM Salaries/Property Taxes/Corporate taxes if looks like the Jays have been losing money for the past couple years… No?

    • Well I guess Corp taxes only come off if they were making money so that was a dumb addition to the costs haha

    • True, but doesn’t that leave out, for example, concession revenue which, I assume, far outstrips concession costs. Or parking revenue. Or other promotional opportunities (for example, the post mentions gate revenue amount but not the in-stadium or other promotional deals.

      So, yes it’s more complicated, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that the Jays have been losing money.

      • There’s no freaking way the Jays have been losing money. All you have to do is look at Oakland and Tampa and realize that no owner would be able to retain their teams for that many years while bleeding millions.

        The Jays numbers are not broken out for a reason in their AR, it’s in Rogers best interests in their dealings with MLB for them not too.

        Of course MLB isn’t dumb. It’s the primary reason why Toronto lost their revenue sharing in the new CBA.

    • I see what you mean and it’s a valid point. However, I don’t think we have to worry ourselves about the financial health of Rogers. They could pay the salaries for all of MLB IF they desired. They’re that rich. As a fan, I’ll settle for putting the BJs around 125 million next year and subsequent years.

    • No the Jays are a profitable team. The undervalued TV contract makes more money for Rogers overall. This team is a goldmine because sports content is very valuable now for advertisers who don’t want their commercials to be fast forwarded.

  12. Only problem with this is the fact that every team is receiving this nice fat bonus…. So it pretty much cancels out (assuming teams use it to improve their roster). Basically players will be the ones benefiting from this as all teams can meet higher asking prices.

  13. Isn’t the key to this piece, the fact that every team gets this revenue?

    This gives the Blue Jays no actual competitive advantage, no? If anything, it means we may have to overpay even more, since other teams have this surplus revenue may be throwing it around all willy-nilly.

  14. Been saying this for a week now with regards to the new revenue. However, I still expect teams to start spending it this winter. Possibly not the full amount, but even if it’s half, that’s enough for all the teams to afford an Edwin Jackson type starter. I think the Jays are going to have to overpay without question and I expect competition to be even fiercer than normal with the teams having some experience with the new WC format. That said, now that the base is much more solid compared to the last major increase in 2006-07 or I should say return to the previous norm, it shouldn’t be such a problem in the media if god forbid they overpay a little. I still laugh at the moaning about Burnett for instance when if you actually look at it on a $/WAR basis the deal ranges from average to excellent depending on what version of WAR you’re inclined to use.

    Even without the increased national TV revenue I truly think the money was there for a substantial increase in payroll already. I just hope Rogers doesn’t try and pull the wool over fans eyes and say “hey we’re getting $26 million more, don’t expect us to spend more than that”.

    • Good points.

      I am curious if any of the Rogers controlled media would dare ask Beeston or AA if they plan to spend an extra 20 million in payroll as a result of this new deal?

      Does extending Carlos V at 5-7 million per year look to be foolish in light of this new MLB deal?

      Doesn’t AA believe that someone other team won’t use the new money to go ahead & sign Carlos V at a similar amount.

      Considering the Jays are willing to spend 4 million on Dustin Mcgowan who may never pitch another inning again, what would be the excuse no to extnd Caros V??

  15. Does this mean an end to Sunday (or as they say down South: “Sun-Dee”) Night Baseball?

  16. So the Angels just got Vernon Wells paid for.

    I wonder if this announcement will mean a wave of big contract buy-outs is coming, teams can always make the money work with debt or deffered payments to players.

  17. The really interesting thing for me is how this relates to the luxury tax.

    I’ve never seen so much restraint in the off season from the Yanks and Red Sox. They could have bought up players but didn’t. Lots of comments about staying below the luxury tax from two financial powerhouses. I’ve never seen that before. Maybe it’s actually becoming a deterrent for the big spending teams.

    If so, but everyone is getting more money from increasing TV deals, maybe the lower payroll teams have an opportunity to level the field a little bit.

    Of course this only lasts until the revenue gets too high and teams start blowing through the luxury tax threshold again and it all goes to hell.

    I bet the Dodgers screw it up

    • And if I’m right about this the Rays will win the World Series for probably a decade straight.

    • good point, but you’d have to think the luxury tax is related to league revenues.

      I’m thinking this will be the old “a rising tide elevates all ships” scenerio and nothing really changes. But you’re correct in that this is going to help the smallest market teams immensely.

  18. Pry Jose Abreu out of Cuba and then sign Josh Hamilton to play left field. After that use Gose and/or Rajai to cover for Hamilton when he is injured and it woudn’t really matter who plays second base. Then get some actual pitching so that we don’t start off 2013 relying on McGowan, Cecil, and Laffey to get us through to the returns of Litsch, Hutchison, and Drabek.

  19. Well done Stoten

    What I wonder is how much of this is driven due to changes in the CBA specifically the draft. There is no reason to believe that AAs strategy has not changed. When there was a strategic advantage in Group B free agents he focused on it and exploited the draft. thereby building a great farm team. Now that there is an influx of cash he seems to be saying all the right things about going after free agents. The fact that he saw a huge premium requested for pitching has also had an impact on the clubs strategy.
    Here’s to an interesting off season. Would the World Series just be over.

  20. Good time to be a FA.

  21. greinke or bust

  22. I fail to see the competitive advantage when every team gets the exact same increase in revenue. I see no changes.

  23. Stoeten’s correct that we can only count on what the parent company pays the Jays for the regional TV sports rights and should not speculate on what FMV really is.
    Can’t help but think what that number really is.
    And with the flexibility afforded by the current players under contract, you’d think it would bode well going forward.
    Doesn’t mean the Jays can spend their way to the max leaving zero flexibilty but the purse strings can now be loosened.

    IMO, In looking back at the moves made in the last three years they all start to make sense financially and for the best for the team.There was a lot that didn’t make sense before or were questionable at the time but now seems clearer.

  24. Hmm…this blog post looks an awful lot like the argument I’ve been making for the last three years. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. Good to see you jump on this bandwagon, Stoeten (even though the current team may be more full of holes than any of the previous three going into an off-season…it’s going to be a damn tough road to contention).

    With the amount of money that Rogers is already making off the Jays’ TV rights, there’s never really been any good excuse as to why their payroll is so low (and that’s 11 out of the last 12 seasons, I believe, that have been below average). Add in the ESPN, FOX, and TBS revenue, and it makes the lack of spending even more egregious. I’ll be interested in what bullshit Beeston comes up with next if Rogers keeps the organization from spending once again.

    • I thought the lack of spending made sense from the standpoint of the Jays recieving revenue sharing under the old CBA.By understating RSN revenues and not overspending on payroll it allowed for that huge revenue stream to exist.
      Now that’s gone, you could speculate the spending should rise.After all, it’s been proven that the fans aren’t apathetic if the Jays are precieved as a competitive team.

    • +1 .

      It’s very nice to see that Stoeten has finally figured out what we have been saying about real baseball revenues for the team.

      Roges has been pulling the wool over everybody eyes, saying that it would be a mortal sin to pay a pitcher more than 7 million per year & have convince fans that the way to go is to get Jo Jo Reyes, Brian Tallett, Dana Eveland into the rotation.

      Yu Darvish at 20 million per year looks like a bargain compared to wha the nxt U Darvish will get.

      You also have to realize that with the new wildcard spot, more teams can jutify trying to stay competive throughout the year. There won’t be as many trade deadline deals.in the future because team are till in it.

      Can you imagine if the Jays had the Orioles record or even the Ryas record how high the ratings would be, bandwith downloaded , gate revenues etc…

    • stoeten has been turning the corner on seeing the light for the past few months…too bad the FA market was so much better last year, as was foreseeable at the time. i think the grienke and hamilton deals are going to look really bad very quickly. as someone that wanted them to sign both or either of darvish and fielder…i really hope they look elsewhere for upgrades.

  25. Big Papi!!!!!!!!

  26. I’m the first person to want Rogers to spend more money, I’m just confused as to why the situation is any different today than it was last winter. If anything, I think it can be easily argued that with high hopes for Johnson & Snider/Thames and Drabek/Hutchison practically MLB ready that it made more sense for the team to augment its depth last winter than it does now when you’re looking at a team without viable everyday options at LF, 2B, and DH and with gigantic holes in the middle of its rotation. Any argument for fiscal responsibility last winter should extend to today, and news of some new media deal really shouldn’t have any effect on whether AA is willing to sign bad-value contracts. Once MLB announced that the Jays were going to stop getting 35m in revenue sharing in the future it was obvious that it was either no longer needed or wouldn’t be once an impending deal was consummated. Last year’s inaction on the FA market wasn’t because Rogers didn’t want to spend the money, we were told, but rather because AA couldn’t find the right player for the right contract without getting to uncomfortable commitment territory.

    The Jays payroll for 2013 is already at 80m if you bring back today’s team without KJ, Villanueva, Frasor, and Lyon and that means starting Hechavarria and Davis everyday with a Romero/Morrow/Alvarez/Happ/Cecil rotation. That would be a team that needs, in my opinion, at least 2 more starting pitchers and 2 more quality bats to consider itself a contender, and you’d be hard pressed to find that kind of talent without being able to take payroll WELL north of 100m.

    If it didn’t make sense to be in on premier talents like Darvish, Cespedes, Pujols, Fielder, Reyes, etc. last offseason I don’t see why it’s the time to get involved in a rather underwhelming FA class. If you can add some quality players on 1-2 year deals I’m sure AA will be all over that but then it becomes harder to get guys to choose Toronto when FAs see a 90 loss team with a manager whose heart is supposedly in Boston.

    • So we are stuck where we are forever?

    • I think the conditions are different from last year,not a solid enough base was built last year going into 2012. I think a lot of those questions have been answered and definite holes have been indentified.

    • Speaking strictly in terms of money, for one thing, the Jays have been removed from the profit sharing teat. They most likely couldn’t spend a ton more than they were spending previously without raising issues with MLB. Now that MLB has removed that problem for them they can spend like the higher revenue team that they actually always have been. Whether they will or not remains to be seen.

      Back in 2002 prior to Rogers ownership payroll was at $76.8 million. Today that’s worth $98.3 million. With the growth in revenues from all sources over the past decade it just goes to show just how much Rogers has been holding back since then. Even if you want to argue about the increases in international and amateur spending and extra scouting costs it still doesn’t come close to where payroll was a decade ago once you account for inflation. It’s even worse when you factor in the rise of the CDN dollar vs the US dollar.

      • Dont forget that the 77 million USD was 123 million CDN at the exchange rates back then.

        Today’s 80 million USD is 80 million CDN.

        Thus even without inflation, Rogers is spending 35% LESS THAN THEY WERE 10 YEARS AGO.

        Are ticket prices 35% lower than 10 years ago.

        I would love to find out what Rogers was charging for beer in 2002 at the game.

        Were TV ad rates 35 % lower now?

        This has been one of the biggest con games in baseball getting gullible Jays fans to feel sorry for Rogers & their payroll parameters.

        • That’s what I basically said. When you factor in US dollar inflation then add in the CDN dollar gains vs the US dollar it becomes a joke especially against the backdrop of 10 years of revenue gains and new revenue sources.

  27. AA can turn this good news story into a tale of woe in no time….now don’t get excited beause we already have commited money $20 in pay raises and deferred salaries, we have capital invested in the minors like the transfer of AAA Vegas to Buffalo, infasturucture improvements at Rogers Centre, direct expense increases in areas of uncontrolled costs, actually we are fortunate in this becomes a revenue neutral cash flow issue. We will spend when the time is right.

    • LOL…I can see him saying that! But if he goes that route, he’ll have an empty ballpark, TV ratings will drop etc. It’s time to spend some money. Investing for three years to build up the farm is over. It worked. Lots of assets there. Now, spend to your market size and interest level for a change. And if Rogers wants a guarantee you’ll win by spending, tell them nothing is guaranteed in life or pro sports. And remind them how NOT spending has been working?

      • Sadly, they will look at Baltimore and the Rays to defend their business strategy of thirft. If we can keep Lawrie and Joey Bats (remember him?) from pissing off the umps, get production from the rookies and then reclaim valuable assetts from the ashheap, the BJ’s will be just fine

        • and look at how both the rays and baltimore spent years in the bottom of the al to get there. they have had many years of decent draft picks, Also with the rays how is that working out for them attendance wise? they have 550k less seats filled this season than the jays.

    • LOL!.

      Don’ forget the Jays will have to spend money on shoveling snow in Buffalo in April!!.

      Increased meal allowances will get Parkes hyper about spending on the minor league team…:))

  28. I have said a couple of times, that much like the stock marker , once you can get momo going you need to keep pushing for it to go higher or risk it capitulating.
    The jays got a good first 3 months with great crowds, great concession sales, ratings and an ok record. But now , 2nd half results and poor performances have started to put a damper on this developed momo.
    I think they KNOW, they must make some kind of splash this winter to keep that momo going and I for one am waiting. NO tickee, no washee

  29. I should be shot for commenting after only skimming but am I right that the big news here is that every team in the league is about to get an equal boost in revenue?

    If we’ve got money supply going up with complete certainty then we’ve got immediate ‘inflation’ for those years. It should be priced in at the next contract that ‘sets the market’.

    So the big winners here are not anyone expecting to spend big but everyone who has already locked in long term deals and previous rates.

    This means the Jays and their no 5year+ discipline are the relative losers while the Dodgers and Angels are relative winners??

    • Very true. Votto would be paid more now had he waited till 2013 or 2014 becaue more teams would be able to afford im.

      Bautista’s contract is even a bigger steal.

  30. God, Stoeten!! Stop being such a Rogers apologist!! This is the 4th largest market, and Rogers make billions … what? Oh… Nevermind.

  31. This money changes nothing. Every team is getting the same increase in revenue so the Jays arn’t getting any competitive advantage from it, all this will result in is inflation in player salaries.

  32. Great article Stoeten. One of the reasons why I enjoy your writing so much is that you are thoughtful, and rarely black and white on issues.

    Half the people on here gave you shit for approving of AA’s ability to get value on the cheap in AA’s first couple years, but it DID make sense for him not to get caught up in big contracts at the time. To develop youth, and stay flexible for later on when the time was right.

    I think though, this offseason is clearly a time to make a move and start to change course in terms of payroll.

  33. If the 2013 payroll isn’t in the $110M to $120M range, then my friends, the Blue Jays are fucked. The MLB roster needs two proven starters, someone who can hit and field in LF and someone who can handle 2B. Lind is dead to me. If he remains, lets keep it under 450 PA’s as a platoon DH or 1B. So, you might also want to consider what is available at 1B.

    Pipe dreaming, I know. But fuck, at the very least, AA needs to get off his horse and get the Jays some quality arms for the rotation. Trade, free agency, who the fuck cares. It will bump up the salary committments either way.

    I also wonder if AA would now take a mulligan on Cespedes.

    • “”If the 2013 payroll isn’t in the $110M to $120M range, then my friends, the Blue Jays are fucked.”

      I want the Jays to spend this offseason too, but after how the Orioles and A’s seasons went this year, how can you say that? Not to mention the Red Sox and Angels? (and almost Tigers).

      • Those are one offs James. Not picking you or anything and I hate to say it but it’s the same argument a lot of people use as a reason for them not to spend money. They will hold up the rare small market/low payroll team team that does well for one year on a reduced payroll. Those teams are usually more like the anomalies than anything else. You’re something like 5 times more likely to make the playoffs when you are among the top 10 spenders compared to the bottom 5. There was a great article that FanGraphs did a couple of years ago looking at the percentages. Have to see if I can find it again.

        • @night_manimal – I agree with you. I think the odds of them making the playoffs next year are FAR better if they spend more. And I’ll probably be as pissed as you will if they don’t.

          I’m just pointing out that it’s not absolute. Sometimes teams with high payrolls don’t play well and one’s with lower payrolls do.

          I definitely am hoping we’ll see a sharp increase in spending, but I’m not writing anything off if they don’t is all I’m saying.

        • Very true night manimal.

          Look at the Phillies that everyone laughed at for overspending.

          Th Phillies have turned out to have a decent season which kept the 40K plus fans entertained through the last half of this season.

          There is hope for the Phillies in 2013.

          A for the Jays, the injuries were very bad this year, but tthe team had no depth once the starters went down.

      • Well, the A’s spent on Cespedes. And they had solid pitching.

        And the Orioles? Well, have you not watched their season? Jesus, they fucking kidnapped Jobu and previoulsy unheralded guys Jason Hammel and Chen have stepped it up and contributed like big league starters. Followed by no-names like Darren O’Day and Luis Strop, who suddenly became unhittable. That black magic voodoo shit goes above and beyond payroll parameters.

        The Jays have nothing in the high minors that can contribute to the MLB starting rotation. They have 4 guys with MLB service on the 60-day DL (McGowan, Litsch, Drabek, Hutchison). And then that leaves Morrow, Romero, Happ, Alvarez, Laffey (if he is retained), Villaneuva (who is likely gone the minute the season ends) and Jenkins, as starting pitching depth.

        Then you have the clusterfuck that is second base and left field. Not to mention first base.

        So what I am basically saying, is that the Jays will need to spend just to field a competitive team.

        You can’t win jack shit if your pitching staff sits near the bottom of the barrell. The A’s have had solid pitching – that was never a problem for them. And the Orioles have had one of the luckiest seasons in MLB history.

        I am not advocating that the Jays go ape shit and sign big ticket FA’s like the Red Sox (under Epstein). But seeing an increase in salary in the $110M to $120M range would give them some much needed AL proven talent in the rotation. That is gonna cost money. Doesn’t matter if you acquire said talent via trade or free agency, if there is a proven arm coming our way, the Jays will either assuming a big contract, or they will have to outbid the competition to sign a FA.

      • James, it seems we defend the BJ’s spending straegy by comparing ourselves to the bottom rung wildcard play-off teams. Tampa, A’s, O’s, the list of teams that have mere silvers of success and never win. Compare the Jay’s to the winners – Giants, St. Louis, Yanks, Rangers (kinda)…these teams send considerable more. This is where we gotta head. To hell with the playoffs, lets win

        • @birddog and ballsdeep

          Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with you guys. There’s NO reason they shouldn’t be spending this offseason.

          I’m just pointing out that spending more does not necessarily = more success. So it’s not as absolute as saying ‘spend more or you’re fucked’.

          But yeah. I by no means want them to cheap out.

          • Your post sounds like AA alright, spending won’t solve the problem (probably won’t hurt either), being cheap won’t solve the problem (but now’s not the right time to spend), you will be stuck in the middle forever….keep waiting James. We slid backwards this year, and next year dosn’t look so great from where we are today.

  34. So the MLB is going to be cutting sweet cheques to every team, then penalizing them if they spend too much money on salaries? Talk about a cock tease

  35. “I’m really just talking ballpark figures here” [note: heh].

  36. If each team is receiving that much, then it doesn’t affect the status quo. All this does is encourage inflation in contracts in my eyes.

    • Yes that will be the primary result for sure. The good thing in the Jays case is that they can spend big this year because they have the resources to do so. Hopefully the will is there to allocate those resources. I do think that even spending big this year won’t have the same effect as it might have simply because I believe teams will spend some in advance of what they’ll get in 2014 if the situation is right for them.

      As for the inflation aspect, I think people will look at the Fielder, Darvish and Votto contracts in a different light come 2014. They won’t seem nearly as outlandish. Contracts for guys like Jose and Edwin will seem like outright steals if they maintain anywhere near the production they put up in 2011 and 2012.

  37. I don’t see why this news is anything to get at all excited about. It affects all teams equally. It’ll just result in an increase in player market value. How is this news even a smidge above neutral for a Jays fan? For a fan of any team?

  38. This could be quite dangerous. I can see player salaries getting EVEN MORE out of control than they are now. This could be the start of a monumental crash/strike/lockout in a few years, when the pendulum swings back.

    • Interesting longer-term view… except that I am not certain that they are currently out of control – most US clubs have already had a decade of rapid increases in TV revenues and salaries should be expected to grow at that rate approximately.

  39. “For the sake of the brand– to put it in terms that the holders of the corporate wallet should be able to understand– that time has to be now.” … I may never stop chuckling. Awesome.

  40. With across the board revenue increases, there will be rampant salary inflation. The new market inefficiency will be acquiring contracts signed before 2012. The GMs that can suss out the quickest where the dollar per WAR figure will eventually settle at will be in the best position to make value trades. Now’s the time to pull reverse Halliday trades, shipping out prospects for super stars with fat tickets that won’t seem burdensome in retrospect.

    • Yeah man.

      I would add that the Jays, under this new reality, are in a good position because they have so many players who were either signed to extensions prior to this announcement or in their pre-arb or arbitration years.

  41. And on a side note, I wonder how much this played into the dodgers willingness to take on all of those Boston contracts.

  42. The reason this is big news is because some teams have essentially already spent this revenue on the players they got last year. The Angels are looking at this money as salary relief for Pujols and Wells. The Rangers just got a big chunk of the money they spent on Darvish back. The Tigers got a lot of Fielder’s contract taken care of. All that money owed to Mauer just became less of a burden. Ownership for these teams is going to think they got away with spending a shitload of money, and are back to normalcy, not “time to spend even more.” IMO.

    You will also have teams like the Royals and Rockies who will never, ever spend anywhere near what they “ought” to be spending. It doesn’t matter how much they get in free revenue.

    The Jays and Rays and A’s are precisely the sort of teams this helps. Teams where there is not an adversarial relationship relationship between ownership and fan base, and teams where they didn’t just completely blow their wad on a Class of 2011 free agent. Don’t get me wrong, the Rangers and Tigers are going to the playoffs and we’re not. But I don’t believe it will just raise the salary waters for 2012 free agents equally.

  43. All of these poor jays they didn’t raise payroll last year crap I am reading is like reading this shit article http://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/article/1265856–miserly-rogers-strikes-out-as-blue-jays-owner-kelly

    Can someone explain to me how spending 100 million on Yu Darvish who had a slightly better year than Henderson Alvarez was good spending? Can someone explain to me how 300 million on Pujols is a good investment, when MVP Candidates like Mike Trout are making the league minimum. Food for thought Prince is making 2 million more than Cabrera was he worth the 2 more?

    People who say last years free agency was better are drunk or stoned. Last year there was more A list names but in regards to SP there was very little. the jays needs are sp over anything else. worse case they have a 1b. worse case they have 2b and lf. however they do not have sp.

    • You make some good points. However, Yu Darvish is a metric fuck-tonne better than Henderson Alvarez.

      • How about Brandon Morrow than 7 mill a year vs 18 (include Nippon Ham Fighters rights). …. Now, its not my money, however I would rather see the Jays make contractual long term plans, whereas they have some youth that could make them have stellar team in 3 years over the method of lets sign some big names, make a push, but fall sort and wasted an extra 20-30 million for 0 results.

        Do I think Gose, Alvarez, and Adeiny are fantastic current mlb players, no but do I think filling there seats with over the hill has been is better either?

        I would like to see the Jays send Gose, adeiny and d’Arnaud to winter ball, and get Alvarez to work on a shut down pitch.

  44. There of course is alot more to this story. The Jays, from the central fund, will receive $51.7 million from television, $2M from Sirius, $10M from MLB properties, and about $20M from MLB Network and sponsorships, this represents an $83.5 million dollar Payout PER TEAM.

    Add to this the $38 million (which seems very low) in revenue that Rogers Media gives to the Jays as their “broadcast deal”. MLB will probably force this number to go higher as broadcasting deals are increasing exponentially across the market and the revenue number goes up to $121 million before GATE and merchandising revenue.

    This doesn’t mean that the Jays will have $121M in payroll. Of course, there are plenty of expenses, including development contracts, team expenses, stadium expenses, and so on and so forth.

    The Jays, beginning in 2013 will begin to lost their share of revenue sharing, meaning that they will need to increase their revenue in other ways. The amount of this sharing is rumoured to be in the $30 million range. The Jays will lose 25% of this amount each year until 2016 when it is all gone.

    So what does this mean? For next year, the Jays will lose about $7.5 million in funding before the 2014 agreement takes effect. The Jays did increase gate revenue by about the same amount this year.

    And with all of th eincreased TV revenue being split evenly, I think that the 2013 season will be filled ith a couple of big free agent signings (per team) to spend those dollars. Hopefully, those two big signings for the Jays are free agent pitchers.

  45. I’m a bit late on this, but I don’t know how helpful this new money is for the Jays. If the Jays spend this off-season, I don’t think it will be due to the new TV deal.

    Each team will have an additional $52 million to spend beginning in 2014. Therefore, no competitive advantage is created for any MLB teams relative to the others. The real winners in this are the owners and the players, but not certainly not the Blue Jays. Salaries will rise due to the influx of new money and the requirement in the CBA that 50% of baseball revenue is paid to the players. In other words, a dollar today doesn’t go nearly as far in free agency as it did yesterday.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *