Happy winter! Danny Knobler of CBS Sports Knobbled his way to some Jays traffic (um… for his Tweet?) yesterday afternoon, giving us the first ever-so-slightly shifting flake of innuendo in what’s presumably going to grow into an off-season avalanche:

The Jays, of course, had scouts, including the GM himself, over in Japan last year to see Yu Darvish, and we know how that turned out– per the most recent report, third in the bidding, and not within $35-million of what Texas paid– so the fact that a bunch of scouts were there doesn’t tell us a whole hell of a lot about the Jays’ level of interest.

In fact, perhaps their appearance watching Jackson– assuming that’s who they were specifically there to see– and the sheer number of scouts in attendance, tells us that the club has a some uncertainty about the formerly Boras-represented free-agent-to-be. And why shouldn’t they? Jackson has seen a decline in innings each of the last three seasons– though he still logged 189.2 this year– and was down about a mile-per-hour on his average fastball velocity this year, which led, in part, to his first sub-3.5 fWAR season since 2008.

On the other hand, he’s still good for near 200 innings and has only had one sub-3.5 fWAR season since 2008!

So… there’s that.

Comments (74)

  1. problem is, we wont get him on a 1 or 2 year deal anymore

    • well, he’s been a solid innings eater for years. i’d say the problem is, whoever gets him now will have to overpay. i think 2012 might be his career year, and the pessimist in me thinks if the jays sign him he’ll breakdown and we’ll all hate the contract….if he goes elsewhere, he’ll finally find the command he’s lacked that would move him into the higher levels of SP

      • what i meant to say: yes, but he’s never been that good in the first place, and the same concerns he’s always come with are still there (command)- so the length of term is going to be combined with the amount per year…it’s a bad deal waiting to happen.

    • They were never gettin Jackson on a one year deal; he’d be crazy to choose Toronto in that scenario and was smart to go with Washington when the right multi-year offers weren’t out there.. Their only shot has always been to offer more money and years to him than anybody else, something I’ll only believe AA is willing to do when it happens.

    • last winter people were anticipating him getting close to 100m so you never know

      • Honestly, if the Jays are prepared to go over dollars and years on a pitcher, I’d hope they have the sense to do it for an established ace and not some guy who had potential to be one five years ago.

  2. He’s not a Boras client anymore. He dropped Boras earlier in the year.

  3. Jackson would certainly be a good start in the right direction. Not really “top of the rotation” , but a solid middle starter who takes the ball every five days.
    In the event that the Jays don’t get a left fielder via FA or trade, what about signing Mike Napoli to play first/ DH and put EE in left? Thoughts?

  4. Could have also been there to see…. Morse, Desmond, ….
    Lombardozzi, Espinosa……. LaRoche (shudder)

  5. Spoiler: those scouts are actually just Nats fans.

  6. The sad thing for the Jays is that he was an upgrade on everyone in the Jays rotation except Morrow in 2012. Also if you look at his peripherals some of them they were career bests with the exception of his HR rate. His K/9 was a career best and his BB/9 was a career low. He also knocked a chunk of his WHIP in 2012. He had a pretty brutal home-road split but his home ERA was a very good 3.30 and the Park Factor was a dead neutral 100.

    He had 2 particularly bad starts vs St. Louis and Colorado, both on the road, where he gave up 8 runs in 1.1 IP and 3.0 IP which certainly is going to skew the numbers. Otherwise he had 17 quality starts out of 31.

    FIP at 3.85 and xFIP at 3.79 are all very close to where they’ve been the last 3 years so I think what you’re seeing is what you’re going to get for the most part.

  7. For some reason I think of Gargamel every time I see the Knobler’s picture.

    http://www.befter.net/user/huayna/beft/gargamel-smurfs/

    • THATS IT! I have been trying to put my finger on it for quite some time.

      The Knobler goes a Gargamelling!

  8. Random unrelated question….. Soriano has 2ys @ 18mil/yr left. If the Cubs were to pick up say…. 15 million of that and the Jays didn’t have to give up more than one top prospects and some mid tier prospects…. Would he be a viable LF option.

    At that price you’re essentially paying for a 2 WAR player, which he…. might…. be…..?

    • More I think about this,the more I think my answer is no…. heh.

    • So that would be $21 million for an aging player who doesn’t exactly have the greatest attitude by some reports. I’d rather the Jays pony up a couple more million a year and get someone like Melky or even Bourn and move Colby to Left.

      I guess the downside of Bourn is that it keeps Gose out of Center for longer than you’d want. At least with Melky you’re getting a better bat and someone is a lot younger with something to prove now.

      • The Melky thing has me curious.Can’t make up my mind about it.

        • The Melky thing has me curious as well, and I think he’d have been a great fit, but I can’t help but think that the Jays’ PR would be averse to it. After the debacle that was Yunel’s ignorance and the other reports of a ‘problem clubhouse’ (thanks Omar!!), it just doesn’t seem like a move that a now-increasingly-PR-conscious club would make. I would bet that we don’t see Melky in a Jays uniform this year.

          • The Giants didn’t want Melky back after his suspension expired. Why would the Jays want him in that case, since it’s clear he’s a problem child in one way or another?

    • Certainly better than what the Jays were throwing out in left most of this past season. Cubs would have to pick up salary for sure. His age and knee concerns would be a factor. But if the price is right….maybe.
      The Jays may have to look at options like this because if people think that the top free agents are gonna come calling in a few weeks sayin “pick me! pick me! ” they are livin in a dream world.

    • i suspect soriano and dwayne murphy would be a bad match.

  9. Shin Soo Choo for the 2013 Jays… Why?
    He’s got a high OBP (would’ve been 2nd on the Jays) for the lead off spot
    Has some base running prowess (20+ SB)
    Line drive hitter, not simply a contact and run guy
    Would fit perfectly in left field for one year while our prospect outfielders develop
    Probably wouldn’t cost a fortune in terms of prospects (Max one blue chip, maybe a couple mid levels)
    Struggles a bit with lefties but could platoon occasionally with Rajai against tougher lefties
    Cleveland has holes everywhere so it should be easy to intrigue them with prospects of our choosing
    He just seems to fit into our lineup perfectly so what’s the hold up

  10. Jackson would look great in that #4 spot in the Jays rotation. if Jackson and happ are your 4 and 5 starters, you have a top 5-10 starting rotation. Im thinking 3 yrs 27-30M should get it done. Jays still need to get frontline starter through trade. So the rotation could be morrow, player x, romero, jackson, and happ. Thats pretty solid. Of course romero, is a HUGE question mark. Jays will need some added depth as well, but on the surface thats a good rotation and a decent plan if thats what the jays are thinking.

    • Ugh no Happ, no Happ! That would be settling in a big way if he’s our #5. 2 good starts out of 6 as a Jay along with a horrible track record over the last 2 years doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence imo.

      • I’d Rather have Happ than Alvarez in that 5 spot. Happ is not great but atleast he can miss bats. Overall, Happ is mediocre but how many teams have fairly good #5 starters? Not many. Jays could also add someone else through free agency or trade to shore up the #5 spot.

        • Happ is a decent #5 if you got a solid 1 thru 4 ahead of him. I would rather see Happ over Alvarez.Alvarez needs to be in Buffalo to work on some things. I haven’t givin up on him as a big league starter but he needs more seasoning in the minors.

      • You seem…. unHAPPy

      • I’m hoping Happ is our #5, with Alvarez getting time in Buffalo to work on a 3rd pitch.

        Not sure why you dislike the idea of Happ as a 5th guy, night?

        I think he’s MORE than adequate for the last spot in the rotation. Strong, even.

  11. Jackson would be a nice free agent addition. Would be interesting to see what it would take to get King Felix from Seattle or if they are even willing to trade him.

  12. Here’s the deal:

    Lansing 3 to Seattle for Felix if we could get him to re-up with the Jays.

    Then you’ve got:
    1. Felix
    2. Morrow
    3. Ricky
    4. Doesn’t Fucking Matter
    5. Doesn’t Fucking Matter

    • I wouldn’t be surprised if It would take those 3 plus a MLB ready player or 2

      • Id be very tempted to trade the lansing 3 + arencibia for king felix. I doubt thats what the mariners would be looking for since the lansing 3 are far from making an impact in the majors.

        • Trouble is, Seattle trading Felix would be unpopular so they would want way too much. They want him and he wants to stay. The only way they could begin to sell that kinda deal to thefans would be to ask for the Lansing 3 , d’Arnaud , and probably Lawrie. AA isn’t about to go that high.

          • Yeah dont forget they asked for Lawrie to start with last year for Pineda. The fans have no desire to wait 2 to 3 (probably 3) more years for prospects that may ot may not get to the bigs.

          • trouble is it would be so unpopular they would never consider it.

  13. Jackson would give you lots of IPs and you let keep the prospects at home to develop. . A guy that has a good fastball but not blazing. A guy that can keep me close so my bats can get me a win. And he has to average 175 to 200 IPs a year .If I have to trade, I’d want to trade one or 2 or a few of: Rasmus, JPA , Escobar or Davis. Then for my next rotation piece, I’d go out and pay through the nose for a Greinke or Peavy or whoever else wants a fat contract for 3-5 years. That leaves you with your Lansing 3 and Smoral and Stetson and DJ Davis and all the rest of the prospects while in the bigs you’ve got a good team maybe above average team that can contend til the prospects get there.

    • How about signing Jackson, then trading for Brett Anderson in Oakland. If I had to overpay, I would prefer to overpay for David Price ….even within my division. It would take alot but I don’t see the Rays keeping him much longer.

      • Those were my thoughts exactly, Terry.

        If I was AA, my main goal would be to attempt a huge deal (Darnaud+One of the Lansing guys + etc) for Price.

        But failing that I think signing EJax and trading for a guy like Anderson would put the Jays in quite a good spot.

      • I want Price badly but we’d have to overpay for him and it would most likely include D’Arnaud and 2 of the Lansing 3 and probably others. If you give pitching prospects to the Rays with their record of developing pitching prospects, they’d probably be killing us for years to come. If you give up a package like that I’d prefer it to be for King Felix.

    • ….if the prospects get there.

    • That’s it, is it? Just stock the team this year and let the prospects turn to gold? GM-ing made easy …

      • Ya,but what if some or most of those prospects turn to fools gold? Then what? I say move a few (not all) now for some established players or players that have proven they”re ready now.

        • Yea, I was obviously being facetious. Clearly not all those prospects will be coming to save the day.

          You seem to have a tough time detecting the sarcasm, Terry.

  14. Felix has a case of “Ubaldoitis”

    That’s where if he’s not availble, you’d be an idiot not to want him….and if he becomes available, you should probably pass, cause there’s probably a reason he’s available..

  15. Jackson took a 1 year deal in WASH to re-establish some value to swing for the fences and try and get his big long term deal. He was serviceable but there is no way he gained any further value. This might be the time his group re-evaluates its position and look a reasonable long term committment? I’d be ok in the 3 yr, $25M range. I’m not high on Edwin but if the price is right, he can slot in at that #4-5 and eat some innings and keep our top prospects in tact for either future development or another move.

    Anything over $10M per is a bad investment for this guy.

    • it would be a shock if he didn’t get the qualifying offer of 1/$13.5 or so.

      • He signed a 1 yr deal just under $11M. Do you think he is worth the increase? Furthermore do you think Jackson would decline that kind of money to elect Free Agency? I’d say no and no

        • fangraphs has him worth $61.1M over the last 4 seasons… the business of baseball is flush with cash… and there are a shitload of teams in the market for starting pitching.

          he’ll get the qualifying offer.

          • I never said he wouldnt. I said he isn’t worth it and I’d be dissappointed if the Jays gave that kind of money to him

          • fair enough, tom.

            i think the market will determine he is worth it and a hell of alot more.

  16. I actually think Edwin Jackson is underrated a bit.

    2009: 214 IP, 3.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.8 k/9
    2010: 209 IP, 4.47 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 7.8 k/9
    2011: 199.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 1.43 WHIP 6.7 k/9
    2012: 189.2 IP, 4.03 ERA, 1.21 WHIP 8.0 k/9

    He’s not an ace by any means, but guys who consistently pitch 200 IP with an ERA of around 4 don’t grow on trees. Plus, he only turns 30 next year.

    I think the Jays are in a position where it wouldn’t be the worst thing to overpay for a guy like him.

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