Now it’s time for all the stuff I don’t figure on making full posts out of (and that I need to distract myself with in order to keep from arguing with the commenters), with the spiffy graphic by Matt English (aka @mattomic). It’s your Afternoon Snack… er… Afternoon Hangover… er… links!!!

Not that I’m not taking this seriously, because it’s horribly shitty news, especially considering that ex-Expo Pascual Perez had the flair and the talent to be really noticeable and fun to a kid in the 80s back when he actually had a second team he could cheer for– in other words, I was definitely a fan– but of the many items out there on his murder yesterday in the Dominican Republic, I’m going to choose to link to the one in the National Post, because at the bottom of the piece the have a picture that I’m pretty sure kinda embodies exactly why he was a fan favourite for Montreal.

Jon Morosi of Fox Sports lists his top 13 free agents, taking guesses as to where they end up, and who is he to turn down pageviews from these parts, so he has the Jays landing Anibal Sanchez, who he ranks number three.

A tweet from John Lott informs us that Chris Woodward, who was playing last year for Las Vegas, has retired, and will become an infield coordinator for the Mariners. “Woody” debuted in 1999 and peaked with a 2.2 fWAR season for the Jays in 2002, in which he put up a wOBA of .342, which would have been better this year than any Toronto Blue Jay with more than 50 plate appearances, save for Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Good fucking lord.

Excitement for fans of overrated pitchers (yeah, that’s right) and baseball in the capital region: according to the Ottawa Sun, Nolan Ryan is part of the group that is aiming to bring to bring Double-A baseball to the nation’s twat. The Sun’s Don Campbell also notes that the Eastern League may bend rules allowing clubs to renegotiate current PDCs with MLB CLBs… er, clubs, which is probably going to lead a lot of people to believe the Jays will try and find a way out of New Hampshire, even though I’m pretty sure they’re not lying when they say they’re real happy with their relationship with the Fisher Cats. More importantly, the group Ryan is involved with also owns the Triple-A team in Round Rock, and the Double-A club in Corpus Christi, who play at Whataburger Field! Go to Texas and find yourself a damn Whataburger. Seriously.

Nobody tell Geoff Baker, but Dave Cameron at FanGraphs looks at the trap of over-spending for mid-market clubs, as he believes the Royals did yesterday with their pickup of Ervin Santana. It’s an interesting take that doesn’t insist against overspending, but highlights its dangers, and begins with an important truism regarding the Santana deal: “The Angels have options. They’re a winning franchise in a major metropolitan city with nice weather, so attracting free agents isn’t a big challenge, so long as they’re offering something close to market value. The Angels can afford to take calculated risks with players, knowing that their pool of potential replacements is pretty large,” he writes. “That doesn’t describe the Royals at all.” The Jays either, I’m afraid.

Elsewhere at FanGraphs, Bradley Woodrum takes a look at some NPB free agents, of whom three of the top four are middle infielders, which could be of some interest to the Jays.

Bluebird Banter wonders what it’s going to take to get Dan Haren out of Anahem, and puts the question to their readers. Certainly a lot more than what the Royals gave up for Santana, I think, because of both the quality of the player and the depth of the market. Reportedly the Angels have been weighing offers– fingers crossed the Jays have a good one out there, and that if they do make a deal, adding Haren’s salary doesn’t curb their free agent adventures this winter. It’s entirely possible they will and it won’t, but… try telling that to the peanut gallery.

The Blue Jay Hunter wonders about Ricky Romero and the trouble with hiding injuries– a sometimes understandable reflex of players worried about keeping their jobs or letting down a club that’s already been decimated. Interesting stuff.

Working Towards a Title looks at managers fired by American League clubs since 1990 who have ended up working elsewhere. For the Jays, John Farrell will be the first. And that’s well below average.

Lastly, it’s yet another outstanding installment of the Getting Blanked GIFs of the Year: Fan-Made Greatness!

Comments (127)

  1. The jays need to sign nate mcclouth asap. He’d make anice platoon combo for left field with davis and so LF would only cost you about 5mil. Then you can focus the restof the payroll on pitching.

    • Yes, because the market for shitty Nate McLouth is going to be a fucking stampede.

      They can do better than a guy who is worse from the left side than Rajai Davis is from the right side, I’m pretty sure.

      • Except that you forget that most of the pitchers in the league are right handers right? so mcclouth’s splits are actually more important than the 100abs davis would get vs lefties right?

        and if davis is supposedly this 4th OF then who is this regular left fielder who is going to mash everyday? unless you can find someone with better splits and same cost then mcclouth is hands down the guy you want.

      • just like there was a stampede for davis at 2.5 mil so alex had to outbid himselft.

        • Apples and oranges. AA didn’t outbid himself – the Jays had to make a decision on the option. Seems that the team decided to keep Rajai. Rather than exercise the option they came to the agreement to decline it and sign him for $2.5M.

        • “just like there was a stampede for davis at 2.5 mil so alex had to outbid himselft.”

          Spoken like someone who is truly hopelessly fucking clueless to the fact that Davis has actual value.

          The fact that you say it emphatically, like a dick who knows anything, doesn’t mean you actually know anything, friend.

          • I never once said davis didn’t have any value. I clearly stated that his value was in the 1-1.5 mil range which is why I said to decline his option.

          • rajai davis and his slow-jam at-bat music more than make up for whatever discrepancy you see in the dollar amounts

    • ya ummm….no thanks. Leave him to the OriLOLes

    • So I guess you read all the posts showing how much better Rajai Davis is than Mr McLouth yesterday and then decided to use Andrew’s data to show how they could work as a platoon.

      Genius!

  2. Everyone complaining about the Jays not spending for the sake of spending should read the Dave Cameron article and then shut the fuck up

    • Mr Cameron’s article does not apply to the Blue Jays.

      The Blue Jays issue is the laughibly small budget in a major market; it has nothing to do with overpaying a single player.

      For example, I feel pretty confident the Jays could have taken 1 or 2 year stabs at Santana, Haren, Melky and Scutaro and have a payroll of $110 million WHILE still making a healthy profit for Rogers.

      Sadly, it’s not about a healthy profit with Rogers. It’s about maximizing profits.

      • But that’s the thing: the Jays aren’t any kind of market. Rogers tells them how large their market is, basically. It’s not untrue that Rogers could run a much bigger payroll and still be sitting pretty, but since they’re won’t, bullshit as it is, what the hell do you do? You do what Cameron is saying, pretty much.

        That, I’ve always felt, has been the chief M.O. of Anthopoulos: to try to pull this all off within Rogers’ artificial notion of the market here. It sucks, but I think he has done an excellent job of this, and wish fans would be able to better view things with this context. Hate Rogers, not the Jays. But even then, Rogers are just being good corporate capitalist fucks, so it’s hard to even hate them, in a way.

        • Oh I agree 100% that AA is doing an execptional job as GM, while Rogers is doing a terrible job as owner.

          However, the argument was about the Jays not spending, which implies Rogers, not AA imo.

          Dave Cameron is great and often makes great counterpoints to people who say “it’s not my money, so why should I care how my owner spends it”.

          As fans, we should care. We want the budget to be used optimally.

          But my argument is against the laughibly low budget, not how the budget is being spent.

        • Good points, Andrew.

          I find it hilarious when people act pissed off at AA for not spending to get guys like Darvish or Fielder.

          Do they actually think if Rogers said to him ‘feel free to go nuts and acquire these kind of guys’ that he wouldn’t? He doesn’t set the budget.

        • @ Stoeten.

          That’s a breath of fresh air from you.

          I appreciate from you used the terms”inflation adjusted payroll” in your previous post.

          The reality is AA is trying to do his best with whatever scrap Rogers gives him.

          What I find extremely annoying from the “Rogers Apologists” like Wilner & Davidi is that they justify the low baseball payroll as the better way to build a team as if the Jays would magically benefit from poor performance resulting in more draft picks etc..

          The reality is that until AA’s draft picks show up in Toronto and are able to contribute to the team, we have a long wait for success.

          Today’s interview of Stephen Brunt by Jeff Blair was an eye opener.

          Brunt said Rogers has been forced to do something “flamboyant ” this year. Blair & Brunt are opposed to a 140 million payroll. Brunt said AA gets 1 more chance to hire a manager & if the new manager fails, then AA has no mulligan.

          If the team turns around in the next 2 years, he gets promoted to President when Beeston retires. If AA fails…

          Blair says the players were aware that Farrell & the other coaches were not fully committed to the Jays. Boston.

        • Stoeten, like you tell some many of your followers on here, what do you fuckin’ know? Which is a legit question because myself included, we are diehard fans, we care but we don’t know inside info and neither, in all honesty, do you. If Rogers do not bump the payroll to 110 million, we are going no where. Capitalist fucks? Capitalists know how to capitalize on a good situation and they have it here. So, this winter tells the tale. If they do not spend, they should sell the team to a group that will spend in keeping with the size of the market. You can’t play both sides. Either Rogers are fuckers or not? I’m waiting until the offseason concludes but I do know they have been fuckers to point of ownership of the Blue Jays. Now the question is are they smart Capitalist Fuckers and actually realize for a bump in salary, relatively small at that, they can rake in more money because the team is more competitive?

      • how do you know that will make them a profit?

        I think that maybe rogers could spend more, but I don’t think they are making money by not spending. I don’t think any amount of money they make on the jays would be significant to them.

        They are simply spending what they make on the team. you may disagree with that philosophy but don’t confuse it with them sitting back and raking in millions of dollars.

        • True, but the value of the franchise just keeps going up and up, and that kind of theoretical capital certainly never makes it back into the club. And Rogers controls internally how much is made on the TV contract, which is an issue as well.

          At least, it’s an issue now. The fact that it’s a rolling figure that the Jays get is, in a way, perhaps a good thing. By the time we hit the back end of the TV deals that are powering clubs now, the market may inflate so much that it’s not enough anymore.

          So… it’s complicated.

          • +1 Stoeten.

            I think you realize that even a crappy team like the Astros was sold at an astronomical amount. Houston is a smaller market than Toronto.

            The Dodgers went for over a billion.

            Sports teams in the age of DVR are very valuable because the content is valuable for advertisers.

            Rogers is running the team at a break even level because they don’t seem to realize the extra profit they would make from a winning franchise.

            If I was a cynic, you could pump up the Jays for a couple of years with extra payroll, get a playoff team & sit back & milk those memories for years later.

            Rogers is still trying to capitalize on the 1992 & 1993 Jays.

        • Because they’re making a healthy profit now (MLB has been subsidizing them too) and if they invest, TO and Canada are waiting to see and support a winning team, one fitting to represent them. If you think they are not making a healthy profit now and not reinvesting in the team, you’re sadly mistaken. Spending a bit more will help fill in the holes on this team and make them more competitive and thus, fans will come to see the team, watch it on various platforms and buy merch. Is it such a stretch to say that for a bump of 20 million they’ll make more money? The team isn’t even close to the point of diminshing returns folks. As for how I know, I worked in low minor leagues for a few years and looking at the numbers, and what MLB has been giving Rogers, they are making money and not reinvesting. I was no where near AA’s level obviously and work in an entirely different field and have been successful in that field, but I know how team’s budgets are set and the lack of transparency and results of last year’s offseason tell me we have excellent management of the Jays up and down the organization but an ownership group that are, to be polite, “meh” regarding the team. I believe they don’t care either way if the team is a winning franchise as long as it doesn’t cost anything to run vs profit margins and it doesn’t embarrass the Roger’s brand. AA and Paul might get more money this year because of the latter. The only one that cared about baseball in TO and Canada at Rogers was Ted and unfortuantely, Ted is no longer with us. I would suggest that if Rogers want to cap the MLB roster at 85 million, that’s fine. Why not bring in a limited partner, one who is passionate about the Jays, and they can invest another 40-45 million a year in MLB team payroll in return for advertising on the various Roger’s platforms etc? There would be other benefits too but because Rogers owns the team, the facility and all those revenue streams, plus the broadcasting rights obviously, this would not really impact Roger’s bottomline that much if at all, with the bump in attendance, merch sales etc from being connected to a winning team. Just a thought.

      • I would rather see the Jays allocate more money to their payroll (done propoerly) as well, but can we stop trying to justify a larger payroll based on pretending that they’re in a “major market”.

        Sure 37 millionish canadians are supposed to be fans, but 8 million (Quebec) would rather daydream about the past, the west is not exaclt 100% Jays fans and the maritimes (were I’m originally from) is probably close to 50/50 for the Red Sox and Jays, respectively.

        Toronto and it’s suburbs is large, but I cannot believe that they get the same kind of support that Texas or the teams in southern California receive with comparable populations.

        Due to these factors, it is not fair to justify the Jays spending based on direct comparisons to other “major market” teams.

        That being said, if there are other reasons they could justify spending more, I would be all for it.

        • What I want to know in all this is, where did the money go that they were spending internationally and on the draft before the limitations came in?

          Granted, draft spending isn’t curbed too much, but there was like an extra $30-million spent in those ways in AAs first year– not beyond zero spending, but beyond what Ricciardi was spending on them.

          So, that should be coming into payroll as well– plus whatever budget they might have tucked away by not spending to their limit in the last three years, assuming it works that way– and I hope it’s missing from calculations like Davidi’s. As well as the additional money for backloaded deals that will come from the new national TV contract for MLB.

          We may be worrying for nothing, is what I’m saying, though Rogers is going to have to prove me wrong before I consider changing the word “may” to something more confident.

          • The problem with the jays is there is no transparency. They don’t tell you anything. They won’t even tell you what the payroll number is. AA wouldn’t even tell you that farrell had a 3 year deal! WTF? Why all the secrecy? It’s not a good way to run a business that relies on public perception when you don’t give the fans any direction on what you are actually doing and when you do you lie about it.

          • That’s a good point but that figure is kind of misleading because a good chunk of that (Hechavarria $10 million ) was always on the major league payroll.

            Also if you break it down yearly, the money the Jays were spending internationally and on the amateur draft over and above the median of what other clubs were spending works out to be a small amount when viewed in the context of the differences in the payroll. For example if the Jays were spending $7-8 million more than the median in those areas when you add that to their ridiculously below average payroll it doesn’t do much to close the spending gap. In fact it probably still leaves them in the bottom 15.

            I really just like to go back and look at what they’ve spent historically. In 2008, the last time they were inside the top 15 of MLB payroll, that $97 million is worth roughly $104 million today in adjusted dollars and it pales in comparison to the roughly $147 million they last spent when Interbrew were still partial owners . We all know for a fact that revenues today outstrip the revenues from 2008 and most certainly from 2001.

            As for worrying, you’re entirely correct. The Jays certainly may end up increasing it to levels that would make even the biggest Rogers haters happy. I for one certainly hope that is the case. I know spending isn’t a guarantee for success but it certainly doesn’t hurt either especially when you look at things beyond the single year results.

          • I agree Stoeten. Good questions. Paul and AA might have the pressure but fans clearly are watching how committed Rogers is to winning.

        • “Toronto and it’s suburbs is large, but I cannot believe that they get the same kind of support that Texas or the teams in southern California receive with comparable populations.

          Due to these factors, it is not fair to justify the Jays spending based on direct comparisons to other “major market” teams. ”

          Well, I mean… Toronto IS a major market. It’s the 4th or 5th biggest market in the league.

          Texas was near the bottom of the league in attendance as recently as a few years ago. Then they got a good team. Boom. Big support.

          The last time the Jays were an elite team (early 90s) they had big support (record breaking, as we all remember).

          The point is – like most markets – if the Jays win, the support will be big. If they don’t for an extended period, it will fall off.

          But the potential is unquestionably there.

          • population doesn’t always surmount to market size. There are a lot of hardcore baseball fans in the city, but their isn’t a lot of casual fans.

            There are a lot of teams that rely on casual fans, and have the population to support it. We have the population, but do to many factors such as geography, immigration and team relevance, the population hasn’t produced a lot of casual fans.

            Toronto has more immigrants setting up shop than any other city with a baseball team (legally moving) and most of the newcomers are south asian, a region that has little to no connection to baseball. The dynamic of the city has changed, and it wont be until the team is relevant again that you would be able to turn people back to casual fans.

          • The beauty about the Toronto market is that when you compare it’s size to others in the States a lot of those areas have competition from other teams especially in places like NY or Southern California.

            The fact is it’s a chicken and egg scenario when it comes right down to it. You nailed it when you said good team, big support. It’s just getting that good team that seems to be the hard part. They way I look it is we’ve tried the build from scratch – low payroll way for a decade now and we haven’t got anywhere. Time to try something else.

            They great thing to me is that we don’t have to completely abandon all the work that AA has done over the last couple nears. All we have to do is add to it. Sure it’s just not one or two players, but so what? The fact is, due to injuries and a bad organizational philosophy in the past, we’ve got a developmental gap that needs to be filled from outside. Doing it this way doesn’t crimp the pipeline you’ve arduously created over the last couple of years for the future. We love to talk about it not being a one or two year wonder. Keeping guys like the Dunedin 3 in place while we use the free agent market is the best way to do that.

          • all true and lockout killed some fans permanently

        • Part of the lack of national support is due to the fact that the team has been no better than average for 2 decades.

          What I don’t quite understand is why Rogers is not looking at this year, when just the promise of a competitve team put a couple hundred thousand more fans in seats, and a few million more people tuning in to their programming, and seeing the benefit of spending (even) another fifty million on the team.

          Don’t see how this doesn’t make financial sense.

          To me, this year should prove to them ‘If you build it, they will come’.

          My back of envelope balance sheet says most of the increase in expenditures would be made back in at the park revenues, never mind what it’s worth to them for Sportsnet (regardless of what they pay the team for said tv rights). Hell, for a corporation of this size and scope, 50 million is just a addendum to their advertising expenses; and a good one at that, seeing as their name is plastered on everything around the Jays.

          It’s true that the Jays are primarily a Toronto/Ontario franchise, but I also think this year showed a dramatic increase in interest outside of Ontario (also helped by Vancouvers team). It’s not a static market.

          • I think the sexy new logo and marketing is an understated part of causes of increased attendance and viewership

          • Buffalo Sojourn: I totally agree with you. From a business standpoint, it makes sense for Rogers to seriously invest in the Jays.

        • Good points. But that’s still a lot of fans and it does speak to market size or potential market size. I think it makes it a major market, even for baseball and that’s not my opinion, it’s a fact because we lead MLB in attendance in the past for a few years. We do have to spend more time and money building the fanbase more than say Texas and California after 20 years of failure to make the playoffs and that’s one important reason to invest more money in the team. I’m from the Maritimes too. NB more so than PEI or NS are Red Sox fans. NS is 90+% Jay’s territory now. Most baseball fans in Canada are Jay’s fans. AA is moving towards supporting that pan Canadian approach to building the Jay’s fanbase and brand with minor teams here. But at the end of the day, it will be the success of the Jays that determine interest and that’s why Rogers needs to pump up the MLB payroll.

  3. I noticed someone suggested trading JPA + Cecil + Jenkins + Nolin for Haren + Iannetta. It is beyond my abilities to comment on any blog other than this so I am blog arbitraging.

    This is for 1 year of Haren. But the commenter says it will give Jays the opportunity to evaluate him and then bring him back.

    This evaluate and bring back thing? Do people put a lot of stock in this?

    We have a bulge (yup) of high ceiling pitching prospects maybe 3 yrs away. We’ve waited a couple of decades. Why are we so eager to pursue a 1 yr flame at this stage at the expense of depth and future year control?

    Fuck my comments get longer and pissier as my deadlines for actual work become more pressing.

    • That suggestion is complete insanity, and while there do seem to be an unfortunate number of people who put stock in the “evaluate and bring him back” thing, it’s pretty laughable if you’re actually contemplating risk or thinking about all this like it’s the business that it is, and not entirely as a fan or a populist columnist.

      So… you’re right.

      Haren for one year would be great at the right price (and I don’t think it will be anywhere close to that insane suggestion), but one year of anybody isn’t remotely worth anything of value to this club. To a franchise on the cusp of a championship, sure, but for us that remains less a real goal than a best case scenario.

      • stoets

        I know we all love black magic, but do you think if he’s on the fence about retiring, a trade to a contender would convince him otherwise, plus the warm climate etc.

        I would think the Angels wouldnt do much better than an incredible reliever @3 million for a year in return for haren.

        • I’d do it in a second, yep. And I think you’re probably right that it would be a whole lot more attractive to him.

    • Involving Arencibia who is arguably are most valuable trade chip right now with Haren is ludicrous given the situation.
      Like i said earlier an avg relief arm netted Santana. I realize Haren is better but lets not get carried the fuck away.

  4. Im very interested to see what it would take to aquire Haren. The Royals sent an average arm their way for Santana.
    Granted Haren should covet more than Santana. Lets hope AA has something on the table and lets hope if he does that Haren doesnt veto the deal

    • Haren doesn’t have 10-5 rights or a no-trade that I’ve heard of, so I don’t think he’d be able to veto anything.

      And yeah, as much as I really try to distance myself from the chicken littles, and as much as I entirely understand that there are red flags on Haren, there’s a very decent it will be upsetting if the Jays don’t wind up landing him. Depends on the price, of course, but it’s a one-year deal at the cost of little more than Yunel Escobar plus Adam Lind, so the stumbling block won’t be term, it’ll be straight up dollars. Sure, they could argue they don’t think it’s a great way to allocate resources because of his track record last year and the many red flags, but if they had the payroll freedom to do this and more, it seems to me like too nice an opportunity to be passed up.

      That’s easy to say now, of course– maybe they DO think they could better use those resources on an army of Bradens and Bakers and Lirianos or Blantons. I suspect you could make the case that two of those kinds of guys might be better options. But… man, it would be deflating to see them not take a crack here, if the team who does get him ultimately pays something palatable.

      • Cots says that Haren has a no trade list of 12 teams. I’d read somewhere else that it’s 8-12 teams.

        • Could be, then.

          I hope they tell us this if they don’t acquire him.

          Of course, no-trades are hardly insurmountable.

      • Couldn’t agree with you more on Haren. As per Cameron’s article at FanGraphs, the guy has been a stud up until 2012 and if you look at his monthly splits he looks like much less of a risk if you factor in the injury Cameron mentioned. In April and May he was his old reliable stud self and again in September.

      • Hang on. Why does Escobar suddenly have little value?

    • they didn’t send an average arm.

      they sent a 26 year old reliever who’s never made the majors.

      it would be the equivalent to us trading chad beck or something

    • One red flag was his fastball which previously was around 90-91, now tops out at 87-88. And it was that (87-88) even at the end of the season when his lower back problem was over. Shades of Brett Cecil.

  5. Don’t forget that Haren has 8-12 teams on his no trade list and prefers the West coast meaning there’s some chance that the Jays are on the list.

  6. To be more precise, Woodward’s peak was the day he hit 3 HRs.

  7. Did you see the ESPN article by Paul Swyden of Fangraphs suggesting the Jays trade Drabek and McCoy to the Nationals for Mike Morse? Morse is alright, but I’d like to see Jays do better at 1B/DH.

    • Morse isn’t a bad target – can play 1B/LF/RF/DH. Hell he came up as a SS…

      • Uh… he can play the outfield in much the same way that Adam Lind and Edwin Encarnacion can play the outfield, I’d say.

    • why would the nationals gamble on drabek at this point? The success for pitchers after their second tommy john drops dramatically

      • I think that success rate is liable to change as the medical technology and knowhow gets better, but still… you’re totally right. Who trades for an injured pitcher, especially one who has had no success since Double-A three years ago?

        I could live with Morse, but ugh. Horrible walk rate. He’d fit right in!

        • I honestly feel like every important trade piece or FA signing should be in to the rotation.

          I know no one wants to see Adam Lind get 400 Ab’s next year, and the offense does have some holes no doubt.

          But i’d rather the jays fix their rotation moving forward, because the talent and potential in the offense is at least there, its not there in the rotation after a few names.

          • With you on that for the most part. Solidify the rotation for at least the next two years. Let your depth get healthy and refine their skills as in Alavrez’s case. 2 more years should see the Dunedin 3 ready to contribute in a major way. Being able to deal from a position of strength going forward is going to be a huge advantage.

    • Michael Morse is a TRB – Total Raw Beast.

      He would fucking mash at the Rogers Centre…not that we need another RH power bat. But, I love that guy for some reason. (Probably because he carried my fantasy team to glory in 2011)

  8. I think my biggest fear this off season is AA getting caught in paralysis by analysis, and watching other opportunities pass him by. Not getting the exact value back, and doing nothing.

    I dont know where im getting that from, bcs theres no evidence thats happened in the past (maybe Latos?), but thats my main concern.

    • latos would have been nice, but he also wouldnt have saved the shit tastic year that was 2012.

      jays now have another year of draft pics they’ve added to the farm and top prospects are closer to being ready for jobs, so perhaps letting a gose or marinsick or a syndergaard go in a trade (or an arencibia, escobar or rasmus) becomes a whole lot easier.

    • I share those concerns…waiting around for the perfect ninja move while the rest of the league completes their rosters.

    • I sometimes worry about that too, but a lot of that just comes from their recent history of not doing much during the winter. It would be easy to sit here and say that because they haven’t done anything in the past they’re likely to not do anything in the future. The logic of that is pretty silly especially in the context of a rebuild.

      However, I truly think things have shifted substantially where they just can’t take a wait and see approach anymore. They know better than anyone they have a developmental gap in their system and won’t be able to fill the majority of the holes internally. I think we’ve seen AA come right out and say that with his comments regarding the importance of depth and making the mistake of relying on the young guys to come through for him.

      The interesting thing for me is will they be aggressive enough and often enough early on?

    • No I think there has been some small evidence of that and it’s something of a worry now. I believe AA over-thinks and it hampers him. I don’t want him to jump on something too quickly. But sometimes you need to just trust your gut in a trade situation and I don’t think he does that.

      • You mentioned this last winter as well and I disagree.

        Based on his 3 years at the helm, I’d argue AA has no qualms about making trades.

        I’m ignoring Halladay & Wells ’cause those are different kinds of trades.

        But just look at the moves he’s made to acquire Escobar, Morrow, Lawrie, Santos & Happ.

        He’s traded quite a few guys who were considered top prospects (Stewart, Wallace & even Snider) as well as a quality mid-rotation starter in Marcum.

        There simply aren’t many, if any, GMs who have made as many trades for good players in the last 3 years as AA.

        What he hasn’t done is “overpay” for anyone yet.

        But I don’t really think there has been a good case to do that up until now. Because “overpaying” to fill one hole doesn’t magically make the other 3 or 4 holes disappear.

  9. Hey Stoets, what effect do you think not having a manager/coaching staff in place affecting signing any FA’s? I know that money talks, but in my mind, wouldn’t most players want to know who they’re going to play for before they commit to the Jays?

  10. http://updates.deadspin.com/post/34780905169/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being

    Great article for those that are Sabremetrically inclined and are more than a little interested in how those principles are being applied to the Presidential Election in the US.

    • interesting factoid: the more often “experts” appear on television, the more likely what they say is false.

      nothing silver is doing strikes me as anything different than polling/informatics/etc. has been doing for a long time. it’s just positivist methodology.

  11. and this is why stoeten you probably don’t reference bleacher report http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1391609-toronto-blue-jays-chances-are-good-for-a-2013-regression

  12. So Nolan Ryan will have ownership stakes in teams based in Dallas, TX, Round Rock, TX, Corpus Christi, TX and…wait for it…Ottawa?

    Why does that Ottawa Sun story not ask the obvious question of why the fuck would Nolan be in interested in club that is not in Texas and not affiliated with his Rangers, let alone one that 2,700km away in Canada?

    Oh yeah, this is a recipe for stability, adding ownership from even further away. And stll no visibility on any local ownership, which we’re assured will be a…er…”component”.

    I grew up in Ottawa and love the baseball stadium there, but with faraway ownership like this, if this franchise doesn’t find its footing early on, talk of relocation is going to happen so faster than it takes to fry up a Beavertail.

    I also loved Nolan Ryan as a player, but rather than this news giving me warm, comforting feelings, it’s just an annoying reminder of why soesn’t moneybags Rogers follow the Braves and now Ryan/Rangers models and aim to take ownership of its minor-league clubs, starting with this Ottawa opportunity.

    Sure this a rarity in MLB, but if Rogers is serious about leveraging its Jays brand across Canada, why not pony up for the Ottawa franchise, name them the baby Jays, rebrand the stadium as Rogers whatever and go all in?

    Seems like it would make a lot more sense, than piggybacking on American ownership with a puzzling interest in Ottawa and who knows what level of long-term commitment should baseball’s rebirth there not take off as quickly as hoped for.

    • because “fans” in ottawa are of the fairweather variety, unlike in manchester. the fisher cats have a new stadium, and a reliable draw. the jays are happy with their situation. in my estimation, london is a better baseball town than ottawa, anyway – and i think the jays would be better off to look at st. kitt’s or worst city (london) before ottawa if and when they do want to own a farm team.

      • London is the ‘worst city’? I lived there for many years, there are far worse cities in SW Ontario, in its size.

        • London was only tolerable when I was at UWO because of the drugs and alcohol. Let’s be real. That place was a fucking bubble

        • I too lived there for 10 years. Didn’t particularly enjoy my stay, but that had more to do with its location (I’m a wilderness guy- London has lots of nearby beaches, few rough nature areas), and the fact it was stuffed with asshole Western students and nouveau riche wannabe’s. Mind you, Ottawa has very much become that, too.

          There aren’t really any other cities in SW Ontario it’s size; it’s really outgrown Windsor and KW.

      • Just a quick comment to London. I worked for the London Rippers Independent Baseball last summer, and we couldn’t draw more than 100-150 people. I also worked for the IBL team in Ottawa, and saw at least more attendance there for definitely a lower calibre team. In either event, London’s IBL team did okay, and the Rippers lasted half the season before folding. I’d like to see Ottawa get another chance. I miss the Lynx. Plus London has had the warewolves, the monarchs, and the Tigers AA team, all of which didn’t find success. The problem with Ottawa would be that it would benefit them to have the Blue Jays as their team. The question is, whether it benefits the Blue Jays.

  13. One aspect maybe we should speculate on: Will the NHL lockout affect Rogers’ funding the Jays? Remember that they just dumped roughly $533M into the Leafs, and now have no revenue streaming from that investment.

  14. Haren’s NTC expired after the World Series according to this article.

    http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/mlb/story/_/id/8580857/dan-haren-wants-stay-los-angeles-angels-believes-trade-likeliest-scenario

    So there’s that.

    • Ahh good find! Nice work 2010.

    • As I said above I think if you look at his splits pre injury and again in September after he was supposedly back to normal there’s an awful lot to like especially with his track record.

      • Agreed.

        Even if he is pitching at reduced velocity, it’s not as though he can’t be a good #2/3 starter and those are hard to come by.

  15. I’ve had a Whataburger when I was in San Antonio a few years ago – they’re great!

    AA… get Haren and Sanchez, pronto! And if Papi isn’t signed by the Red Fux by 5 pm tomorrow, be ready with an offer at 5:01 pm.

  16. By the way, if you guys want a hearty laugh, read this from 1999.
    https://groups.google.com/forum/m/?fromgroups#!topic/alt.sports.baseball.tor-bluejays/rKC3NGorbrk

    In which the Sux accuse Beeston of tampering with Clemens…

  17. Fuck Rogers! Capitalist scum!

  18. For more idle speculation, how about AA’s new market inefficiency being going out and signing some large contracts now, with the idea that player salaries are going to take a large jump in 2014, when the new national tv contract kicks in.

    • Rogers is behind the curve.Cincinatti got Votto last year.

      Even the Royals are getting more regional tv money.

      It’s getting harder for Rogers to pretend that Jays TV rights at 200K per broadcast are FMV.

      Prices for players were rising last year. AA missed the boat because Rogers wouldn’t give him the money.

      I fully accept that Rogers is the owner. & can do whatever it wants with the team.

      However, I don’t have to put up with Rogers “selling me” on a prospect porn palooza, wait for Lansing Trio , watch Dana Eveleand, Jo Jo Reyes & Tallett etc…

      The Jays have not yet proven that they can develop these draft picks into solid MLB players.

      If the Jays become like the Rays then AA can run the team on an 80 million payroll & get into the playoffs.

      • You realize TBay had a 10 year period of sucking before they started contending in 2008?

        And it’s not just Longoria, Price, Upton, Nieman;

        It’s also Delmon Young that landed Garza who netted a bunch of prospects.

        It’s also selling at the deadline every year to get back prospects.

        TBay has done a fantastic job, no doubt. But it was greatly aided by 10 years of suckage.

        • @Jays 2010.

          Yes I am aware of the Rays 10 years of suckage.

          They did make good trades.

          The Jays under Rogers were usually able to win 78-85 games per year.

          this has resulted in mediocre draft picks which have not developed into mediocre players.

          Rogers media department would not tolerate repeated 65 win seasons because Sportnet would lose a fortune.

          The team has muddled along for many years.

          Tank nation works if you can use the high draft picks & develop them into top performing players at the MLB level.

          • I’m certainly not advocating tank nation.

            For every team like the Rays (who have also had excellent management since Friedman arrived) and the Nationals, there are perpetual cellar dwellars like Pittsburgh, KC and up until this year Baltimore.

            I’m just saying Tampa had some help and it isn’t exactly a model for TO to follow. The ideal models would be teams like Texas and Boston before this past season.

  19. Rosenthal writes Jays looking at managers with MLB experience. Names Wakamatsu, Acta, Tracy and Riggleman.

    http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-seeking-experienced-manager-110112

    • Meh I know the majority of us don’t have any real insight as to whether or not any of those guys would actually make a good manager or not, but none of those names really have that wow factor you’d like to see with a new manager. Then again Farrell supposedly had it and we didn’t get great results.

      Still, I think it’s got far more to do with the players/talent on the field than the manager. If the talent is truly there and they actually perform up to their capabilities then I suppose it doesn’t really matter for the most part. I just wish they’d get it done. Hopefully the delay is because AA is working hard on getting Haren and someone like Anderson or Johnson.

      • the jays seem to be looking for a BobbyCox/TLR-type…except AA basically went out and got Escobar and Rasmus almost precisely because they didn’t get along with that kind of manager.
        i really think that aa has yet to grasp how to make good “baseball” decisions. he’s like the anti-sabean. sabean seems like the worst talent evaluator and contract-negotiator, but then, combined with a pathetic division…it always seems to work out. and you have to watch this team of un-hate-able dudes bro’in’ down.
        the jays are full of dickwads. they really should sign swisher, imo for that reason. but they need a dickwad manager too.

      • Based on today;s interview with Brunt on Blair’ show, AA knew that Farrell would leave once it became apparent Valentine would be fired.

        If Valentine would have been successful with the Red Sox, Farrell would still be here.

        Thus, AA had to have known by August at the latest that Farrell would be taking the job in Boston for 2013.

        What’s a bit confusing for me is if AA knew Farrell was going to Boston why didn’t he scoop up Francona ASAP?

        That would have been a ninja move.

        Francona vs Farrell would be 9 guaranteed sellouts at Rogers Centre.

        The Jays roster would pay attention to Francona who would be motivated to d a good job here & out manage the Red Sox.

        • the writing was on the wall for Valentine back when he said Youkilis didn’t have his heart in it (or whatever euphemism he used).
          i agree, if AA didn’t see by mid-august that farrell had a foot out the door he had his head up his ass.

          boston is a fucked up situation. i sincerely hope they spend cash senselessly this offseason and farrell can’t do anything with it. what happens in boston in 2013/2014 will greatly impact how i view the role of the manager and coaching staff probably for the rest of my life. he’s supposed to be loved by the players that are left there, so if they don’t “show up” for him, then i’ll take that to mean that the manager really doesn’t do shit. and since, as it stands today…i think they have the worst team in the al east.

          • @carbuncle.

            That’s a good point.

            farrell is supposed to be buddies with teh pitching staff who are afraid of him.

            Let’s see what the red sox do.

            I do think that the Jays have a new enemy team.

            If the Jays can land Ortiz, doubtful but if it happens, the Rogers Centre will be rocking when the red sox come to town.

            Whenever I go to the Rogers Centre to see them play there are thousands of red sox fans that show up in buses & cheer Youklis, Pedroia etc..

            Frankly, if the Jays got youklis & Ortiz, Red Sox nation would not know what to do.

    • Jesus fuck. Of those 4, it has to be Manny Acta. Otherwise, just fucking shoot me now.

      • Agreed. Manager with experience, ties to the expos, experience with small markets etc….

      • acta: fired twice in the last 3 years…i mean, the jays had a shitty season this year and farrell made stupid in game decisions…but the jays weren’t going to fire him. the indians fired him with what? a week left in the season? why do that? i really think that people should take this into consideration more instead of just “oh, he sort of maybe doesn’t think sabr stats are total bullshit”

        • Acta: Coached a god awful Nats team and an even more god awful Indians team. Cut him some slack.

        • Don’t attack saber stats. You will be subjected to the wrath of Stoeten.

          I don’t know why a manager would be fired with a week to go. That’s bizarre.

          Is it rational for the Jays to have kept Farrell in 2012 when he told AA he wanted to go elsewhere in October 2011?

          Was AA hoping Farrell would change his mind?

          The media meme about Farrell being upset that his friend Francona was fired & had vicious rumors spread about him & his wife didn’t stop Farrell from wanting Francona’s job.

          That tells me that Farrell is a real S.O.B. to take Francona’s job after the way the red sox treated him.

          If I had a boss that was treated that way, I wouldn’t want to takeover his job.

    • It’s got to be Acta.

  20. I’m not reading any comments. I just wanted to say that it might not have always been legal but Pascual Perez had the dirtiest 12-6 curve ball the world has ever seen.

    • I remember Perz from my Expos fan days. He was quite a caracter. The expos had all sorts of weirdos pitching.

      I remember when the Expos acquired Pedro Martinez. He was his very skinny kid who I thought would blow over the mound if it was windy.

      Pedro was beaning hitters on a regular basis in 1994, but he could strike them out as well.

      You knew he has talent & went on to win the Cy young.

  21. Agreed. Wakamatsu? Like fuck me he totally shit the bed in Seattle. Why does the manager have to have managerial experience anyways??

    Get someone fresh like the cards n white sox did in Matheny n Ventura. Albeit if theres an option out there somewhat similar.

    I never understood why a guy like Wakamatsu could be so considered. Cuz he has experience losing??? I dont fuckin know.

    • Again I am a big believer that it’s the talent not the manager who makes or breaks a team. So saying that you really can’t blame the Wakamatsu’s or the Acta’s for their records because they had shitty teams to work with. However, if you say that, it also means that having experience as a Manager as opposed to just a Coach probably doesn’t mean all that much.

      For me, like in any position of authority, if you surround yourself with talent first and foremost then things usually work out just fine. A Manager who has a competent hitting coach, pitching coach and a good bench coach should be more than fine unless he’s a complete and total tool. Any of the lifers like Alomar Jr. certainly have more than enough baseball experience to manage and that’s what it really comes down to. If the guy is light on managerial experience hire a bench coach who has been around the block to smooth things out.

      • I agree that first and foremost you’ve got to have the talent to do the jobs need doing, so in that sense that “makes or breaks” a team. But a good manager can ensure you get the most out of what you’ve got, while a bad manager can spoil the broth.

        I’ve been in work situations where we had good people on our team but where it all descended into dysfunction due to a terrible manager. Conversely, I’ve seen situations where good managers get staff to exceed expectations. Leadership and quality management matter.

        And while good managers don’t have to be experienced (everyone has to start somewhere), good managers with experience bring more to the table. The idea that because a guy’s a baseaball lifer he’ll succeed as a manager is nonsense. Look at John Farrell’s crappy tenure. Every guy that gets a MLB managerial gig is a baseball lifer – they don’t give the jobs to pizza deliverers looking for a change of scenery.

        Alomar Jr might be the next great MLB manager – we won’t know until someone gives him a shot. But we also don’t know if he’ll be any kind of manager, since he’s never done the job at any level. As such I’d be much more comfortable with someone equally respected and highly touted like DeMarlo Hale, who we know can manage, because he’s actually done the gig at every level in the minors.

        Sure managing in the minors isn’t the same as in MLB, but it’s a hell of a lot closer than just being a MLB coach. I also have more respect for managerial candidates that were committed enough to earning their stripes that they were ready to go down to the minors and actually learn how to manage. To me, going straight to a cushy MLB coaching gig doesn’t show anywhere near the same commitment.

        • My point about the Alomar for instance is that his experience as a lifer counts for far more than people give it credit for. Especially his experience as a catcher where he’s used to calling the game and directing things from behind the plate. Experience dealing with pitchers also plays a huge factor in that lifer experience for me. I’m not advocating for any particular manager. I mean how could I? All I am saying is that I think managerial experience is overrated especially when you can surround yourself with other experienced help. Again not being a tool is a big factor in a case like that. As you pointed out a manager can still make or break a situation if he’s a tool no matter how good the talent is.

        • +1.

          Farrell did seem to make more logical batting lineups in 2012 vs 2011.

          He did learn from experience.

  22. I feel bad for Woodward that he couldn’t get the call-up to the Red Sox coaching staff and had to settle for the Mariners

    • Don’t feel too bad, at least three Jays coaches got the call-up to the big club. And by the sounds of it, Luis Rivera is still in the mix to get the call to The Show.

    • +1

    • im surprised ol woody isnt in line for the new managers job. he was a gamer. if i was still in charge hed still be playing and be ahead of that hotshot lawrie. no flash but woody knew how to play baseball. im sure he’ll be a manager someday. him and kevin millar would be a great team. really grit there.

  23. This: `“Woody” debuted in 1999 and peaked with a 2.2 fWAR season for the Jays in 2002, in which he put up a wOBA of .342, which would have been better this year than any Toronto Blue Jay with more than 50 plate appearances, save for Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. Good fucking lord` is obviously the most insane statement I`ve heard about this past season. Ugh. Whatever dumb shit you guys are talking about in the comments, it pales in comparison that that above information and what it says about what we endured this past season. Oh, and Dave Martinez should be hired, having suckled from the teet of Joe Maddon the last 3-4 years in TB.

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