Well, well… it just so happens that today, as we’re all furiously rosterbating over the new pieces that the Jays have somewhat-miraculously added to the club, FanGraphs has added the brand new Bill James Handbook projections for 2013 to their player pages (courtesy Baseball Info Solutions).

So… uh… let’s have at it, shall we? And by “it” I, of course, mean, “a not-arbitrary but not wholly predictive look at what one might reasonably expect, production-wise, from a bunch of baseball players next season, being careful to remember that James’ numbers are usually a little bullish on hitters and that it’s ridiculous to put any stock in these numbers having anything resembling pinpoint accuracy.”

I also mean: not relievers,  because why?

Obviously the first players we’re going to want to take a look at are the ones heading to Toronto in the massive deal that was consummated yesterday, and– as of the time of this writing– has still yet to be made official. Now, seeing as I don’t really give much of a shit about projection systems, except as a larf, I have no idea if these would need to be adjusted for a move to the American League or the Jays’ cookie-cutter stadium layout. They probably would, right? Whatever…

The Newly Acquired

Jose Reyes: 39 SB, .295/.352/.434 (.339 wOBA). An ever-so-sleight improvement on his 4.5 win “down year” in 2012, but not quite the guy he used to be. I still completely love this trade, though.

Emilio Bonifacio: 45 SB, .275/.336/.350. (.304 wOBA). Closer to his injury-riddled 2012 that his three win 2011, but splitting the difference nicely enough.

John Buck: .219/.298/.384 (.292 wOBA). This would be an improvement on last year. No, really. And James even has Buck hitting a pair of additional mistakes into the seats, bringing his HR total to 14… assuming he actually played a full year (which would be insane, at this point).

Josh Johnson: 3.21 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 196 IP. Not so much the absolutely dominant guy we saw in 2010 (and 2011 when healthy), but very close to his 5.6 win 2009, and I will take the living fuck out of that every day of the week.

Mark Buehrle: 3.78 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 205 IP. The “Mark” of consistency (see what I just did there?), those numbers look just about the same as last year, and entirely in line with his… everything. And why not?

The Cornerstones

Jose Bautista: 39 HR, .259/.377/.529 (.387 wOBA). An improvement on the line and weighted on-base from his injury-shortened 2012, which is somewhat tempered by the fact that last year’s numbers were skewed a bit by his awful start. Not 2010 or ’11, but it doesn’t have to be.

Edwin Encarnacion: 31 HR, .271/.359/.504 (.364 wOBA). Quite a step down from EE’s spectacular, breakout 2012, splitting the difference between that and his previous two years. Not exactly the kind of bullish forecast that we’ve been told to expect from James (eleven fewer homers?), but it wouldn’t be a disappointing season either.

Brett Lawrie: 18 HR, 21 SB, .289/.342/.465 (.348 wOBA). This Lawrie– the Lawrie the realists among us probably expected to see this season– would go a long way to helping off-set the projected slippage from Edwin, and combined with his defence at third would make for a pretty damn terrific age-23 season, even if it’s not quite the MVP-level stuff some were led to believe was coming.

Brandon Morrow: 3.47 ERA, 3.48 FIP, 187 IP. Not quite a return to Morrow’s FIP outperforming his ERA, but not the reverse we saw in 2012 either. A better FIP and similar HR/9 to each of the last two seasons, and if he hits it, with the innings, you’re probably looking at a guy pushing four wins. Sold.

Ricky Romero: 4.43 ERA, 4.46 FIP, 185 IP. Well, who knows, really? Hopefully the surgery helps, but even if it only helps as much as James projects, it’s still Romero’s second-worst season by ERA and FIP. Looks better pitching as the club’s four, and maybe he’ll remember it as quickly as he lost it, but still…

The Old(ish) Guard

Colby Rasmus: 23 HR, .237/.312/.427 (.317 wOBA). This, sadly, is that old Jamesian bullishness, as the projection has Rasmus topping his previous two seasons in average (by 12 and 14 points), on-base (by 14 and 23), and slugging (by 36 and 27). Ugh. Still hope!

Adam Lind: 22 HR, .272/.329/.460 (.340 wOBA). You want to talk bullish? The projection on Lind here is nuts. It would be the second best season of his career to date– after you-know-when– and easily better than his three previous. Not sure how the hell that’s supposed to happen if he’s facing lefties, but… sure, whatever.

JP Arencibia: 22 HR, .232/.278/.451 (.311 wOBA). Not a whole lot different than each of the last two years, and… yeah. He is what he is. Will run into enough mistakes to not be completely useless, but doesn’t offer a whole hell of a lot consistently, except a strikeout per game.

Rajai Davis: 25 SB, .259/.313/.360 (.290 wOBA). Here we see Davis’ OBP creep up towards his career norm, and yet he’s still… Rajai Davis. He’s so Rajai Davis, in fact, that the projection– as you can tell from the stolen base totals– has him as a part-time player. That sounds about right.

JA Happ: 4.30 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 161 IP. Pretty much exactly what you’d expect from Happ, and not a bad return for a fifth starter, or– fingers crossed– a sixth. Uh… you know what I mean.

The Fringe

Anthony Gose: 46 SB, .253/.324/.369 (.307 wOBA). A somewhat substantial bump from what we saw in his first taste of big league action, though the numbers are not quite as impressive as the on-base and SLG we saw when he returned in September. And… um… ten points of wOBA below Colby Rasmus? With a better average and OBP? Things might actually get interesting if Gose starts tearing it up in Buffalo– because the club sure as shit can’t carry both.

David Cooper: .278/.343/.437 (.339 wOBA). It’s only in a part time spot, but James has Cooper with a better on-base than Adam Lind, and virtually the same wOBA. For all the rope Lind has been given, Cooper has been given the… uh… whatever the opposite of rope is. And I know which of these two I’m more confident hits his projection this year– not that I think he can hit lefties either, but with Lind gone he might stop trying to win people over with his bat and take a damn walk at least.

Travis Snider: .278/.345/.468 (.352 wOBA). Because I had to, here’s what James sees in the cards for Not Brad Lincoln, in a part time assignment in Pittsburgh– assuming he even stays there, seeing as he’s out of options and would likely be claimed on waivers should the Bucs attempt to demote him. This line looks an awful lot like Brett Lawrie’s projected one, which… it damn well better not be.

 

Image via the Lawrence Journal-World.

Comments (167)

  1. I think in Cooper’s case, the opposite of rope is shaft.

  2. If Adam Lind is getting starts against lefties then the Blue Jays hired the wrong manager.

    • Yes, for once, I’d like to see a Jays manager utilize a platoon effectively. It hasn’t really happened since Gibbons (they got tremendous value out of that Cat/Johnson combo).

      Platooning is a cheap way to maximize the value out of players and positions and it’s greatly helped teams like Tampa and Oakland contend recently.

      • You nailed it. With that 4th bench spot available there’s no reason to not platoon more often and more effectively this year.

        Still hoping we can sign Gomes or someone like him to hold hands with Lind.

        Then again getting someone to bite on Lind even if it’s for a chump lottery prospect might free up cash for a better left fielder. Then you could slot someone cheap like Cooper into the dh slot to platoon with someone else.

        • I believe Lind is owed $5 million in 2013 and another $2 million to buyout his 2014 option.

          I would GLADLY eat $4.5 million of his 2013 salary just to not have to pay the buyout.

          Give Lind’s roster spot to Cooper, sign Gomes and platoon them.

          • Call me crazy, but I’d bet Texas would take Lind. They’re after JPA apparently. Lind has always destroyed Arlington. Maybe JPA/Lind/Janssen for Derek Holland?

        • Yan Gomes? Wasn’t he part of the Aviles or Izturis trade?

  3. Hey Stoeten, blog post idea: Comparing the Bill James projected opening day rosters for the AL East. How do the new-look jays line up?

  4. C’mon No-Chin!

  5. If Lawrie kept playing defense at the same level as he has with that kind of batting line, he’d be one of the most valuable players in the AL next year.

    • He just hast to stop hitting so many god damn ground balls in 2013.

      • Or start hitting (not chopping) them AWAY from the 3bman. It’s like instant replay every ab. Watches the first pitch, swings through the second, chopper to third…

    • and he needs to stop jumping into the stands and camera bays at every opportunity.

    • Exactly, this. Last year’s defense (if it was real, which I think it was) combined with the James line is a 4.5-5 WAR guy, and I assume the base running can only improve (not that statistically it was terrible last year, anyway).

  6. what exactly would be wrong or impossible about a Colby-Gose-Bautista outfield? Would any balls drop? would any runners run?

    • Nothing wrong with it defensively but even then it would be better with Gose in center. Still not the greatest offensively. If you could guarantee you’d get league average or better production at the plate from your dh and 2nd base spots then it might be worth it overall.

      • If gose is playing well enough to force that then I hope they just move Colby.

      • Judging by the order of the names strictly, I think he meant Colby in lf, gose in cf, and bautista in rf, but I fully agree with that line-up.

        Our outfield defense is more inportant than our outfield offense IMO. We have a pretty solid offensive infield now. Aside from Lind, all aspects *SHOULD* be an improvement over last year.

        First full season in TO for Lawrie in the bag, as long as he reflects on his errors and makes the correct adjustments he should be fine. I always thought that he needs to play the game a bit more wiser, if that makes sense. But that only comes with time and experience.

        Edwin seems to have come on, I can see him being the Edwin of 2012 for a while now, he made the proper mid-late season adjustments when pitchers changed their approach to him with the same results he had all year.
        Reyes = Batting titles, at least at the beginning of his career, but who’s to say he cant do it again this year? Turf makes for quicker, “slipperier” balls, amiright? As long as he doesn’t Buster Posey his legs by hitting a divot or two in said playing surface.

        With the rotation and pen that we now have, I think it’ll be a bit easier to win games that we only score 3 or 4 runs in when players do hit rutts or slump a bit, or, knock on wood, get hurt.

        anyways…

    • You’d like better offense from your left fielder.

    • No reason to think Gose is ready to hit yet at the MLB level.

    • Gose is wicked fun to watch.

      I hope he can improve enough with the bat to stick around for a while.

  7. I think Bonifacio will play a much larger role than many are expecting, especially in LF.

  8. Alex has truly re-made this team into those exciting Expos teams. Well done, Alex. Toronto is going to embrace this team.

  9. Did anyone bother to ask the players involved from Florida that they wanted to come to Toronto but on second thought they are probably glad their leaving this Expo killer, some days Bud Selig does not have a brain and that including Joe Torre, this guy should be booted out MLB

  10. How long does it take to grow grass in the Rogers Centre!

    • Thats a great point! …Especially for Reyes. Lets face it, the Jays have an investment now and should be looking for ways to protect it. (him)
      I noticed Miami has dirt cutouts on the basepaths. If they cant grow grass, that may be a decent compromise.

  11. Lol at James’ prediction of Travis Snider. We just got trolled.

    • And Lind. Makes me wonder if a) What’s the big deal about James anyway if he’s making these kind of predictions? and / or b) WTF is wrong with our batting coach (es) if they cant get production from Lind, Escobar, Lawrie, Hill, etc etc and why couldnt they see that Napoli wouldve been a great reclamation candidate?

      • He is better at created new stats to help evaluate a player’s worth then he is at trying to predict them. Still a genius. Also this is just his system not his actual work since he works for BoSox now.

  12. I wonder if Hentgen will slide into the pitching coach role. He’s still a special assistant and he’s pumped about the team.

  13. Odds on the Jays resigning JJ?

    I wanna say 40/60. Far, far less if the season starts without one.

  14. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4567&position=P#pitchtype

    Let’s look at some Johnson raw data.

    He has lost 1 mph off his fastball for two consecutive seasons. Now averaging almost 93 mph. He has used a curveball the last two seasons and his changeup has seen decreased usage and effectiveness. The change and slider are thrown at the same speed.

    I hope the Jays adjust his change and throw it slower than the current 87 mph. He could then increase the separation between the change and the fastball and add a fourth speed difference for hitters to adjust to. I see huge potential if they can give him the “Blue Jays” devastating changeup with already having three nice pitches to build off of.

  15. Wilner and Blair both speculate that Wakamatsu will be the next manager. Cameron at Fangraphs believes that the Seattle mutiny was led by Griffey after Wak wasn’t using him as a regular when he was clearly done.

    I’m not on the inside, but I want nothing to do with a manager that has been part of two clubhouse uprisings. I will be disappointed if it’s him- I don’t want anyone being promoted after this past season that was on staff. The team did the right thing after Cito and went outside the organization. They should do the same thing again and this time let the new manager bring in his own coaches. If Wak is manager, he better have a pitbull as a bench coach like a Gibbons that is ready to choke out some asshole player if they step out of line.

    • If I was really all that high on the bunt lovin motherfuker, I would have gave him the job the day I sent Farrell’s ass packing

  16. I would take those pitching projections in a fucking heartbeat. All of them, including Ricky’s and J.A. Happ’s.

    Very bullish on Gose. If he does produce solid numbers in Buffalo and if Colby is struggling with the big club, things could get interesting.

    • I totally agree. I think hiring Wak at this point will be a real letdown

      • This was supposed to be a reply to the comment above, though I too would be happy if those pitching projections come to fruition

  17. I would not be surprised if Rasmus gets traded this offseason and Gose is the CF next year. I think YE, CR and AL are not the type of guys that win championships. But, CR is worth another half season to evaluate.

    • You could be right and with the payroll up at near historic highs (adjusted) it might be more of a juggling act in the future with some of the younger guys that aren’t making the minimum anymore.

      I guess the worst thing now is the waiting to see where AA says the Jays stand in terms of payroll and additional trades.

      I guess the danger for swapping out Rasmus with Gose is that as the lineup stands now you could end up with a lot of slap hitters in the lineup with Reyes, Bonifacio, Gose and Izturis.

      • night_manimal: Agreed. But the thing is I like Gose in CF over Rasmus. Gose listens, he hustles and Ramus appears out of touch, moody and a tad lazy. Too many balls fall in front of him for me. I would much prefer Gose play the position and get pop elsewhere, such as LF. And I think Gose has more offense, especially on a team like they now have assembled, than what people give him credit for. I might be wrong and only time will tell. But if a SP or bat becomes available in a trade scenario, I move Rasmus for the right fit in a second and have Gose in CF. Gose’s defense and speed with the line up they have now will not hurt the club and if he can hit 250, he’s the better choice.

        • If we had someone like Willingham for left and Gomes to platoon with Lind I would probably trade Rasmus in a second and put Gose there.

          Be interesting to see what you could get for Rasmus especially if you packaged him with someone else.

          That said, Colby is still my boy (EE too and I am tempted to claim Reyes now but I will be nice and share) and I think a lot of the poor attitude stuff is overdone by people but it wouldn’t surprise to see what you’re suggesting by next season.

          • I fully agree with the overblown attitude statements. He’s a top tier player, and he’s played for the Mets and Marlins, two horribly run organizations. One owner that calls out players on the regular and one that dangles the carrot, then sells the horse, the stable, the carrot, and the string that it was tied to for a pony.

  18. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RH8fi9zK7UA

    Fuck hockey and it’s pitiful locked-out existence.

  19. Rasmus to the twins for willingham

  20. Jp Arencibia, Lind and a prospect to Twins for Morneau. The Twins want to move Mauer from behind the plate this does that and gives them a DH that is only in deal to offset some of the salary the Jays take on

  21. Should of kept Snider

    #ShouldOf

  22. Johnson’s agent was barking that AA may trade Josh to the Yanks….nice touch. This will endear your boy to his new fan base.

    • I didn’t hear it that way, if you didn’t catch the lead into that part,I can understand how you may think that.

      It I think he meant any of the players traded or an existing Jay is likely on the block. Another move to come, basically.

  23. I imagine that instead of every player achieving the mean of their last three seasons there will be significant ups and downs. Rasmus could hit 35 home runs. Johnson could fall apart and end up with a 4.00+ era. really who the fuck knows, I think the batting lineup will benefit as a whole and someone like Rasmus might become a bit more consistent

  24. I believe he said Rangers or Yanks and thats just playing the game. If you want him long term your going to pay because the Yanks or Rangers will next season. Wins will win over the fans . Thanks for trolling birddawg

  25. The most interesting part of these projections is comparing the Jays to the Rays and Yankees as these are the two teams they will have to contend with for the division barring some big upgrades by the O’s and Sox.

    Using the James Projections, here’s kinda where I see the current rosters at, though there is obviously a lot of time to go in the offseason. For hitters, games are in brackets followed by wOBA. For pitchers, starts and innings are in brackets followed by ERA and FIP:

    Bautista (153) .387
    EE (150) .364
    Lawrie (155) .348
    Lind (141) .340
    Reyes (151) .339
    Rasmus (149) .317
    JPA (116) .311
    Gose (148) .307
    Bonifacio (153) .304

    Tex (157) .371
    Cano (161) .370
    A-Rod (135) .356
    Granderson (158) .347
    Jeter (154) .332
    Gardner (155) .330
    *C, DH, OF to be added

    Longoria (154) .371
    Zobrist (154) .352
    Joyce (136) .352
    Jennings (141) .328
    Roberts (126) .318
    Johnson (104) .304
    Molina (97) .270
    *C, 1B to be added

    Johnson (31 – 196) 3.21/3.08
    Morrow (30 – 187) 3.47/3.48
    Buehrle (31 – 205) 3.78/4.10
    Romero (32 – 185) 4.43/4.46
    Happ (28 – 161) 4.30/4.25

    CC (34 – 233) 3.28/3.16
    Hughes (33 – 201) 3.76/3.97
    Pineda (29 – 187) 3.37/3.61
    Nova (29 – 179) 4.42/4.11
    *SP to be added

    Price (32 – 216) 3.13/3.34
    Shields (32 – 218) 3.67/3.75
    Moore (32 – 202) 3.25/3.32
    Hellickson (32 – 187) 3.51/4.10
    Cobb (27 – 169) 3.73/3.29
    Archer (26 – 161) 3.91/3.79
    Niemann (22 – 118) 3.81/4.00

    Lind might be bullshit, but Pineda strikes me as the most ridiculous of these projections.

    I think the Jays stack up fairly well at the moment

    • Yep just have to hope AA does what Stoeten wished on the podcast and not stop now. I think I would cream myself if they were able to trade for Dickey but I doubt that happens now.

      I could be happy with Bonifacio or Izturiz starting at 2nd especially now that we have an offensive upgrade at SS. I could even handle someone like Sierra starting in Left as well but I really would need a platoon for Lind that’s not Rajai Davis and a starter better than Happ. On the other hand if AA did splurge a little more and sign someone like Melky I suppose Happ could be tolerable considering there is the chance that his FIP is actually indicating better things to come. Basically they need one more upgrade at left field or starter imo.

      • Definately and I don’t think AA is done.

        He might not be able to take on that much more payroll, but he could backload a contract for Melky or maybe even add Happ to a JPA+ deal for Dickey which wouldn’t add much payroll.

        As soon as the presser for this trade goes down, I’ll feel a lot better about the rest of the offseason. There isn’t a need for a desperation move and AA can wait for the ideal acquisition.

        Obviously I want the Jays to do more, but they could enter the season with the current roster and win 90+ games.

        • Man I sure hope you are right. It’s sad that I want that to happen so badly lol.

          • @ NM

            I know what you mean.

            Even after this amazing trade, I feel something like Cabrera and/or Dickey is there for the taking.

            Getting both, which I think is entirely possible, and I would be very surprised if TB and NYY could catch up to the Jays this offseason.

            Fuck, I still think there is more good stuff to come and can’t wait for this trade to finally be announced so I can misinterpret all of AA’s ramblings!

        • @Jays 2010.

          I think the Jays are an 88-90 win team on paper now,assuming Santos & Bautista are healthy.

          I heard that Casey Janssen may be on the trading block.

          That doesn’t make sense until you know if Santos is ready to come back.

          • If Santos is healthy, that entirely makes sense. I wouldn’t want to see Janssen go, especially when he’s pumped with this trade, but relievers are so volatile that you’d be trading him while his value is high.

            Although, he’s been great for two years now, so what do I know lol.

          • I am calling bullshit that Janssen is on the trading block. He’s been the team’s best reliever for the past 2 years.

          • @Oakville

            I don’t know where you heard that Janssen is on the block, but I’d be shocked if a team that is clearly a contender would trade their best reliever and bank on a guy in Santos coming off of a major injury.

            As much as I like the interesting cheap guys in the ‘pen, none of them have a long track record of success in an ML bullpen.

            Of course I’d love more upgrades; but the 1-12 pitching staff, with either Oliver or Cecil as one of the lefties, is stellar as is.

          • @Jays 2010. I don’t have any personal knowledge of Casey Janssen being traded.

            I can’t remember where I read it, but the person said that Janssen was at peak trade value. I would not trade him.

          • oakville, you’re paying attention to those voices in your head again. Try night_manimal’s idea–line your hat with tinfoil.

      • How about platooning Lind in LF and bringing in Youk?

    • Agreed those Pineda numbers are wishful thinking. Odd that he has the Rays starting 200+ games as a group.

    • Jays still need to add offensively. Can’t afford those holes at DH and LF. The team OBP can still be improved.

      • True, but it’s not like they need to break the bank to majorly upgrade those positions.

        Melky and Gomes to platoon with Lind is very doable.

  26. Where is that guy that was planning on switching his allegiance to the Angels the night before the trade went down? He could be our good luck mascot. Maybe if he posts again something else good will happen soon.

  27. Hmm fun stuff. Imagine if Lind could hit the ball again… but imagining things is what has kept him with the Jays in the first place. AA needs to let him fly imo.

  28. I see the Angels got their backup plan in place in case they can’t sign Greinke or Haren. Jo-Jo Reyes just signed a minor league deal with them.

  29. I don’t know what’s the point of going big on salary without upgrading your dh plus left field. My guess is Lind will not be around on opening day.

    Does anyone think Rogers okayed this deal but said “that’s it, we’re holding the line now!”

    It would be an embarrassment to spend 120m and finish third, even in the al east.

    • I wonder if the current Jays feel a big sigh of relief that the team has more reinforcements.

      Ricky Romero can focus on his own pitching without having to carry the entire team.

      Buerhle can be the elder statesman.

      I am intrigued by Josh Johnson. If he does well & gets extended, the Jays could be a serious threat in 2014.

      It’s weird being a fan now. The Jays are finally a real big league baseball team with genuine star players that can compete in the AL east.

      The stress of worrying about prospect a,B, or C in Lansing & whether or not they are ready to join the Jays is gone.

      The prospects can develop at their own pace without being rushed to the Jays.

      • his agent said something like “if he has a good year he could sign the largest contract for a pitcher ever.” yikes.

        I have a feeling that AA just pulled the trigger and doesn’t know what exactly will happen with his new haul of players. he has time to figure it out though

  30. Interesting, Jerry Howarth was still trumpeting Sandy Alomar Jr. for coach even after the trade and that the team is going to look for a re-tread. Can’t say I disagree with him though. I’d take Sandy or Sal unless they are bringing in the entire Alou! family to run the team.

    • I often wonder if Jerry is in a position to know more than he can actually say about what the front office has in mind. It would seem strange for them to hire Alomar after they’ve said they now want an experienced manager, and that comment from AA about guys doing well when given a 2nd chance (Wak I would assume). I’d rather Alomar was hired. Or Fasano.

      Howarth was also quite adamant that Gose would not be in AAA to start the season, but would be in left most of the time. Ditto that JPA would not be traded. I think I tend to agree with him. I think the move to come will be to acquire a cheap RH bat with some power to platoon with Lind give EE some relief at 1B.

      However, Howarth also thinks that the Jays will have both JPA and D”Arnaud on the MLB roster in 14 and beyond. I think at that point, one of them goes: whichever one will bring back the best return.

      It’s also possible that Jerry knows nothing more than any other fan.

  31. OK…chances are that Johnson will want to test the free agency waters at year’s end.
    The Jays have a dilemma. What would they rather have…an ace pitcher for a single season only……or flip him now or this season for another guy, who might not be an “ace” per say…but a decent” guy under contract for several seasons?

    • I doubt many of us would shrug and say ‘easy come, easy go.’ It would hinge upon your definition of ‘decent,’ I would hazard a guess. (Hopefully better than what people mean when they say ‘interesting.’)

    • WS win in 2013….keep him

    • It all depends if the Jays are all in or not. I like the idea of adding Dickey and then signing one of the two aces before they hit free agency.

      The Jays look good right now, a potential playoff team, but one or two pieces could take them over the top. I sort of hope AA gets rid of any spare parts not named d’Arnaud, Sanchez, or Syndergaard and goes all in. A Dickey trade + Melky signing looks good to me. Three switch hitters, a knuckleballer, fastest team in the league, elite defense, not to mention some of the games best home run hitters–that is a team that is going to make some noise.

    • Well they have a couple of options depending on how the team is doing come the trade deadline and whether or not he’s willing to sign. Obviously they could trade him if the team is bombing and the potential return is better than the draft pick compensation they would get. Or hold on to him if the team is doing well and make the most of it and settle for the draft pick and one more chance at resigning him.

      The interesting thing is that his salary in 2013 is slightly more than the bumps in salary Reyes and Buehrle will get in 2014. Depending on the budget they might not have room for more. Personally would love to dump Buehrle after the season and give the same money to Johnson.

    • This is simple. Keep the guy til the break, see if he’s interested in re-uping and what kind of $$ it would take. If it looks impossible and there’s no chance for playoffs, flip him for some key pieces. If there’s a chance for playoffs and he’s adamant about going FA , tender him for 1 year @13.3 mill, get your draft pick and proceed.
      Case closed.

      Because it’s relevant, they may want to think about Buerhle’s contract at some point in light of how Hutch, Drabek and McGowan are coming along and see if there’s someone who wants pitching.

      • SP that’s my bad. I posted pretty much what you posted except for the Reyes/Buerhle salaries. I’m having a very distracted morning here but I swear this disquis thing is half the reason.

  32. Is Isturus our 2nd baseman? Don’t know enough about him – can he play a 150 games?

  33. Just the Lawrie and Bautista lines from James for a full season would probably add 4-ish wins on their own over last year.

  34. Would love to see Gose in center sooner rather than later. If he’s never going to really hit, you might as well get the most out the skills he does have. Skills that don’t get better with age. I’m a Colby fan though and wish he could hit just a little bit better to be viable in left. He’d be great defensively there.

  35. We don’t know the exact details of how much money the Marlins are picking up at the moment. For now, I’ll assume it’s $4 million that will cut into the $6.5 million owed to John Buck’s 2013 salary. That puts the projected payroll somewhere between $110 – $115 million.

    I think most on here think it’s time to get greedy and make the 2013 roster as good as possible not only to try and win, but also to push up revenues to be able to afford an even bigger payroll in 2014.

    I’ve been pushing for these moves for the last 2 weeks and based on the recent blockbuster, I think it makes even more sense:

    -Sign Melky Cabrera for 3/21 ($5 million 2013 salary) including a buyout/option to potentially bring it up to 4/30. New LF which will allow Bonifacio to share 2B with Izturis and also sub in the OF as necessary.

    -Sign Johnny Gomes for 3/7.5 ($2 million 2013 salary) including a buyout/option to potentially bring it up to 4/10. Platoon him with Adam Lind.

    -Trade something along the lines of JPA, Happ, Cecil & Sierra if necessary for RA Dickey.

    Ideally, at least one of Johnson or Dickey is extended in spring training if AA likes the price.

    These moves seem entirely plausible and would put the payroll only around $120 million.

    • This would be my dream off season as well, that roster could match up with anyone in the league.

    • Hell yes to Melky – not sure about # of years but he’d make a nice stopgap option for at least 1-2 years to figure out if Rasmus will ever develop further/to let Gose gain MLB experience. I think a Rasmus LF/Gose CF is inevitable down the road but both players are raw enough in certain areas that a Melky stopgap would be real nice, especially since Sierra probably wont factor if the Jays want to compete right now

      Gomes I’d pass on. Coming off a really solid year and he’s useless defensively. Jays can get similar combined stats from Lind and Cooper platoon at DH for no cost at all. A DH should be the last thing AA looks into with his surplus coin or whatever the Marlins give him.

      • Cooper & Lind are both lefties so they can’t platoon.

        It doesn’t have to be Gomes, but he’s the best/most realistic platoon option available I think.

  36. I just want to say for the record that I had a dream that John Gibbons was named the blue jays manager. So you heard it hear first.

    Sort of makes sense too. He’s familiar to the jays and would be his second chance.

  37. Those C H E A P F U C K S

    … Sorry, I just wanted to give it a play one final time. Good night sweet prince.

  38. The winter meetings haven’t even happened yet, the roster will look different at spring training.

  39. NESN is concerned we find exactly the right manager. Kind of them to care. They skate nimbly over the Farrell mess and the reason we’re looking for a manager at all.
    http://nesn.com/2012/11/blue-jays-blockbuster-deal-with-marlins-would-put-serious-pressure-on-alex-anthopoulos-toronto-to-find-perfect-skipper/

  40. What is scary is that Rasmus’ projections which is very bullish compared to last too seasons – - – - still suck!

    Also – I expect Bonifacio’s OBP to be more around .350 to .360

  41. Bonofacio is the perfect 9th hitter

  42. You missed the best projection:

    Brett Cecil: 4.17 ERA, 4.11 FIP, 166 IP

    Better than Romero and Happ. Better ERA than any of his four previous seasons.

    Yeah, that’s likely.

  43. But do the projections account for how many baserunners David Cooper will miss tagging?

  44. i think what you will see is, the players, will play up to the new guys. they all like to compete against one another or to show each other up. this is a good thing each pitcher will try harder to be #1 and each hitter will try to be #1. Lind I see having a great year needs a new contract or maybe out of the game? Its great to think Romero will be #4 going to be a great year. Have already bought the ten pack fingers crossed

    • Lind(a) should pay the Jays back for the last 3 years. There is a VERY slight chance his hitting will improve with the addition of Reyes and Bonifacio, but I doubt it. And it definitely will not improve against lefties. The guy’s a huge tease.

  45. this is not a good read……. boring……. ahhhh…. boring…

  46. Some of the Dickey trade proposals here don’t make a ton of sense. Now that the Jays will have to pony up to keep JJ long term (should they choose to do that) a Dickey trade is not as much of a necessity and other teams will try to fleece AA

    I also don’t forsee AA paying any sizeable amount of money on a DH. I think it has become quite clear he wants to emulate the Rays and avoid paying money to a guy who doesn’t have multi-positional ability. I totally forgot about Cooper – I actually think he could make a decent platoon DH – he put up good numbers last year in limited time – I think between EE, Cooper and Lind, the Jays can squeeze out good enough #s between DH and 1b and slot in guys like JPA, Rasmus, Bautista into DH the odd time to rest them defensively like they did last year. There really is only a handful of DH’s out there worth their weight in gold (big Papi, Butler, etc) so I’m fine with a rotating DH

  47. If this trade doesn’t get the stamp of approval by the end of today I’m going to start getting freaked out man! I think I am going to have to go see a therapist in order to learn how to be a more confident and cocky Jays fan after years of being beat down. Get that stamp sons of bitches!

    • No shit

      “The deal is pending physicals for the players, and Miami could be sending money to Toronto in the trade — something that likely caught the attention of the owners at the meetings.

      “That’s an interesting question, but I think you might want to address that to the commissioner,” White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf said.

      Commissioner Bud Selig said Wednesday night that no deal has been submitted to him for approval, but otherwise declined to address the potential trade. He is expected to talk at the conclusion of the meetings on Thursday.”

      http://sports.nationalpost.com/2012/11/15/marlins-owner-jeffrey-loria-refuses-to-talk-about-blue-jays-trade/

    • Tom it wouldnt surprise me if it was delayed, nor would it surprise me if they tried to quash it alltogether. These (owners and managers) are the same guys that stopped AA from stockpiling draft picks using their rules in the new CBA. In addition the Yankees and Red Sox are very afraid that they may not get their traditional pass to the post season for a few years to come.

      • Selig should be fired if he blocks this trade

      • All i know is the American media is painting a pretty dirty picture of the trade and I can help but think if it were the Red Sox or Yanks involved it would have been signed and delivered by now. I’m just paranoid I hope.

      • Guys, please don’t be fucking ridiculous.

    • The delay is due to players taking physicals. We’d know by now if the commissioner’s office had any intention of blocking it, I’m very sure. And if they did, on what fucking grounds anyway?

      Re-lax.

  48. If its really true and they wanna go for it all this year here is a thought, sign Cabrera, LaRoche and Marcum. Use Happ, Drabek, Lind, Buck and a few not too highly rated prospects to get more bullpen help and hopefully a good closer.

    Rotation

    Johnson
    Buehrle
    Morrow
    Romero
    Marcum

    Lineup

    Reyes ss
    Lawrie 3rd
    Bautista rf
    LaRoche 1b
    Encarnicion DH
    Rasmus cf
    Arncibia c
    Cabrera lf
    Bonifacio 2nd

    With speed / power and a number of players able to win a game for you on a good day plus the ratio of lefties and righties with 3 switch hitters :) . This lineup is a nightmare to deal with everyday and now with proven pitching no matter what happens from now to opening day as a Blue Jays fan I cant wait. Thank-you AA

    • Love Cabrera, not the other guys. Lawrie wouldn’t hit second in this parallel universe, that’s for sure.

    • If Lawrie’s hitting second, he’s gonna have to learn some patience at the plate and maybe hit HIS pitch for a change.
      One more decent bat could change this lineup from merely dangerous to a Murderers’ Row.

      • Still think he’d be better off down in the order like he was in 2011. He hit way too many ground balls to be effective in the 2nd spot in 2012 – double play city.

  49. Doesn’t David Cooper’s head look like the logo for the Las Vegas 51′s? Alien in nature.

  50. Summary:

    Regression to the mean for everyone.

  51. would it be totally uncouth to claim Travis Snider if he were placed on waivers? I like his defense in left if nothing else an you imagine he’d be cheap and familiar with the surroundings/staff, etc… Mottola magic too…

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