Though only two days old, already there has been a tidal wave of reaction to The Trade, as it’s reach goes far beyond the two markets involved in the deal, and far beyond just the world of sports– it has been a lead story around here this week, not just in sports but in news. For me there remain thousands and thousands of words still to sift through on the subject, and it feels as though I’m endlessly falling beind on them, as my focus has been more on the day-to-day movements in the wake of the deal, and less on what’s being pontificated elsewhere.

One story that immediately caught my attention, however, as I’ve begun the process of reading and filing the ever-growing items in my RSS feed for a major trade reaction piece, comes not from one of the usual suspects, but from the business pages of the Globe and Mail, as Paul Waldie and Grant Robertson go deep into the economic side of the deal, managing to lay this nugget on us in the process:

While the team’s play had disappointed fans, the club’s attendance increased 15 per cent last season, and revenue was higher than expected. Some marketable players, like Brett Lawrie and José Bautista, were attracting fans across the country. Meanwhile, divisional rivals the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox looked vulnerable for the first time in years, and MLB had just concluded television deals that would put about $25-million extra in each team’s pocket. Suddenly, spending more on players looked like a smart investment and a chance to capitalize on fortunate events. In the words of a source familiar with the trade: “The banana was ripening.”

A few weeks ago, Rogers management cleared the way for Jays’ president Paul Beeston and general manager Alex Anthopoulos to take the payroll as high as $120-million for the season if necessary, according to the source. Mr. Anthopoulos went out to look for players, and soon found a willing seller in Jeffery Loria, owner of the Marlins, who seemed eager to unload some team members with big contracts. The two concluded the trade this week, even as the Red Sox tried to poach a couple of the Florida players, not realizing Mr. Loria was interested in a much bigger transaction.

Um… I don’t know about you, but that’s news to me.

If the source is accurate, it means that the Jays have something in the neighbourhood of $10-million still to play with, given that the general estimation of payroll after the trade and arbitration raises currently stands at around $110-million (who’s a math whiz? this guy!). An additional $11.65-million (note: PUKE!) is tied up in Adam Lind and John Buck, and while the club has no prayer of getting someone to take those guys at full price, perhaps even more dollars can be creatively freed up by attempting to move them as well.

Of course, the source may not be accurate at all. It’s just, call me naive but the fact that these are business writers, and presumably more plugged-in on the financial side of Rogers than the darkly secretive Blue Jays side, makes me kind of want to believe there’s a pretty good chance it’s true.

Also: because it would be awesome. And because it would be slightly ridiculous of Rogers to push the team to the brink of True Contender status and not do just a little bit extra to make sure they make it over the top.

I know it’s greedy, but so what? Don’t half ass it, guys– expect to be repaid in playoff revenue.

Comments (260)

  1. There’s also the fact that a few reporters are saying that the Jays got even more then $4M in the trade from Florida, which could leave them enough room to grab a couple of significant pieces. Here’s hoping!

  2. Does that $110 million estimate include the money the Jays get from the Marlins? Could give them even more money to spend ($4-8 mill more?)

    • It does. It’s just a ballpark figure, but it includes the full trade, plus a guess at arbitration raises and pre-arb contracts.

  3. You forgot to account for the reported 8 million coming back in the deal potentially allowing for 18 million still available

  4. No wonder my cable bill was $800

  5. Fuck it!

  6. Wait, I thought davidi said that the jays payroll will be $120M after the trade and arbitration raises etc.?

    • He must not have used the original $4M reported dollars

      That has the $4M included and MLBTR projects 11.2M for the arb guys, and Davidi was using $5M for the pre-arb players. That gets them to about $114M if it’s $4M, under $110M if it’s 8.

    • Davidi’s numbers are wrong because he’s including guys not on the 25 man roster.

      • That’s how the Jays account for payroll…40 Man not 25 man

        • There’s two figures that are published. The ones you see on the sites like baseball reference or USA Today are 25 man costs.

        • Obviously there’s a whole bunch of government payroll costs and things like medical we don’t see so that’s why we need to talk apples to apples.

          • You can’t project it perfectly beforehand, but the Jays internally have to budget for the major league costs accrued throughout the season of guys who don’t break camp on the 25-man roster. Last year, they Jays probably spent around $2.75 to $3 million on major league salaries for these players (i.e. prorated 9/10 at the minimum for Hutchison, prorated 4/10 for Gose, Hechavarria, Sierra etc.). You can’t really ignore these costs.

          • No and I am not saying you should but if you go and browse any of the lists published by sites like AP, USA or Baseball Prospectus which uses Cott’s for their figures they are all based on the opening day roster plus things like pro-rated amounts of any signing bonus.

            My whole point is that the figures we generally talk about here by referencing sites like those are for those opening day rosters. So why would we use those figures one time and not now for comparison purposes. As I said there’s a shit ton of costs like payroll taxes, insurance and other stuff that goes into the final bill that have always been there but nobody ever talked about before. For comparison purposes you’d have to go back and dig those costs up too. I know ESPN actually publishes – or they did, a final roster cost closer to the end of the season and there’s usually a difference of a few million.

          • Right, but what we’re talking about here is what Rogers is talking about when they say their payroll budget is $120 million. When you budget for payroll, you usually budget for adjustments due to outside accrued payroll costs. That’s something different from operational costs like medical, insurance, and corporate tax expenses. It’s possible that Rogers is referencing opening day payroll when they cite $120 million, but we don’t know that for sure. I’m just saying it makes sense for a payroll budget estimate to include estimated adjustments to opening day payroll.

  7. If the jays have an extra $10M to play with to upgrade LF and maybe add some pitching depth then thats fucking awesome!!

  8. Any thoughts on what Melky would cost on a one year deal to re-establish his value longer term?

    • yeah, my first thought was ‘this is great news for Team Melky.’ i’d be surprised if he gets more than $8m for the year.

      we’re not adding one of the notable FA pitchers with this gap, but we can get him.

    • I wonder if Melky would do 3 years for $25MM with a mutual option for a 4th year?

  9. hmm then where would you spend 10mil on next then? 1B LF or another pitcher? or some of it as super lube to get Lind and/or Buck to move.

  10. Here’s the updated roster and costs as I see them.

    Figures in parentheses are for 2013 salaries in millions of dollars.
    * Denotes the arbitration estimate via MLB Trade Rumors.

    Position Players – Starters (8 out of 9): Buck (6.5), EE (8), Lawrie (0.5), Reyes (10), Rasmus (4.5*), Jose (14), Lind (5.15), Bonifacio (2.5*)

    Position Players – Bench (3 out of 4): JPA(0.5), Davis (2.5), Izturis (3)

    Total Cost for 2013 for 11 position players: $57.15 million
    Holes to Fill: Left Field, 4th Bench Player

    Starting Pitchers (5 of 5): Romero (7.75), Morrow (8), Johnson (13.75), Buehrle (11), Happ (*3.8)?? fuck no please lol
    Relief Pitchers (7 of 7): Janssen (3.9), Santos (2.75), Delabar (0.5), Lincoln (0.5), Loup (0.5), Oliver (3), Rogers (0.5)

    Total Cost for 2013 for 12 pitchers: $55.95 million
    Holes to Fill: None or one starter if Happ ends up as depth (praying to BJ gods one more time)

    Total Cost for 2013 for 23 players: $113.1million
    Additional Costs**: $1.5


    Again for the pre-arb guys Lawrie, Delabar, Lincoln, Loup and Rogers I gave them $500k. I changed Rasmus’ arbitration number to reflect the estimate they had in MLB Trade Rumors of $4.5 million. In addition to Rasmus, I put Happ down for $3.8 million and Bonifacio for $2.5 million as per MLB Trade Rumors.

    I have Bonifacio as the starting 2nd baseman at this point. Again feel free to flip Izturis and Bonifacio if that rocks your boat a little better. Unfortunately, I have included Happ as 5th starter at this point. Still hoping that the Jays make another move for someone else like Marcum perhaps and send Happ back to the depth bench but that looks doubtful.

    Total payroll is sitting at $113.1 million for 23 players.

    Spots that still needed to be filled: Left Field, 4th Bench Spot or 8th reliever if you’re into S&M.

    If you count the $8 million coming back from the Marlins if that is in fact true, payroll is at $105.1 million for 23 players. If they were to dump Buck’s contract off on someone else and use d’Arnaud they’d be at $99.1 million giving them $20.9 million for a left fielder and another starter. Additionally if they Oliver doesn’t come back and they use Cecil in his place you would save some there as well. If they send Happ to the minors you save a good chunk that could be put to a use on a better starter. Lots of wiggle room still when all is said and done.

    I know Davidi has it reported as higher but he is including guys not on the roster in his totals. You have to remember a player in the minors doesn’t make the same money unless it’s a guaranteed contract. Even guys that are arbitration eligible make less but I think in their case it can’t be less than 60% of what they made the year before.

    Here is the link I use for the payroll numbers. Again I found this a couple of years ago and the person does a fantastic job of updating it in a timely manner. Good thing for all DJFer’s to bookmark.

  11. Melky for 1 year, $8 mil.

    Also, JPA + Osuna + more (much more, but not sure on the pieces) for James Shields. Who says no?

    • Tampa

      • sorry missed the much more

        • Looking at it, maybe TDA + Osuna… I would do that for two years of Shields.

          • That’s a huge amount to give up for just 2 years, not sure if I wouldn’t go for Matt Moore if I am giving up that much with another arm from Tampa as well to even things out.

          • Why would Tampa even consider it though? The whole idea of trading Shields would be to upgrade their offense, right? Well JP is ok for a catcher, but hardly the guy to bring your lineup to the top of the pack.

          • Hell no. Im not trading TDA for a couple years of a pitcher who will be too expensive to sign after.

            I also cannot stand the way shields pitches from the stretch….(not that he has to do that vs the jays very often)

            he does this deep squat and looks like he is taking a shit. I cannot handle that for an entire season..

  12. I think we can come to the conclusion that Rogers was cheap last season! ;)

    There is no way AA goes into the season with no flexibility payroll wise to add players for a pennant race. He will not spend to his limit unless there will be guarantees for more. Having money at the deadline is hugely valuable and makes a lot of trades work.

    • lol two very good points. Yes Rogers has been spending below average no question. Your second point is one I’ve also made in the past, however, they’ve stated publicly in years past that if they make a good case for more money later on in the year it can be done as well. Obviously things like year-to-date revenue numbers and future revenue projections from that point on would have a lot to do with it.

  13. AA will save funds for mid season trades in case the Jays are in contention. Always need to additional room if need be.

    • This makes no sense. Would you rather spend the money on a player NOW that you know will improve your chances..and get 162 games out of him..or would you rather leave the holes unplugged..hope you are in contention mid summer…and then hope to add a piece and only get 70 games out of that player?

      • Injuries happen every year except you don’t know who or when they will happen. You prioritize based on needs down the road. This team should keep you in contention until then.

  14. I can’t really see the team going into the season with JPA and Buck, so I think we can assume there will be more deals made. I do think the team has enough to go to war with to be legitimate contenders. Also, I’m not completely sold that the team isn’t going to turn around and deal Buhrle.

    I just can’t wait to hear Alex talk about the trade and how it went down- and how hard it was for him to trade Alvarez and tossed and turned at night trying to make the decision ;)

    • I can see Buehrle having value from a strict baseball perspective..but his backloaded contract is going to be very tough to move..without ponying up significant cash. he also has a Pluse Five ERA in his career vs the yankees and red sox. this is not good.

  15. I honestly don’t know why so many of you are in a hurray to trade JPA. I get that is value is high as he is not arb eligible til 2014 but do we want to risk starting the year with TDA coming off a bad knee and unproven at the MLB level?
    Do we want to START with John Fukin BUCK, he of the .192 avg and less than that for fuk sake in throwin out runners and pay the CS 6.2m per year??
    No, I think we start the year with JP for sure ( he is after all is said and done in about the middle to upper third for catchers despite his lousy OPA) and we do our damndest to unload uselss Buck, who is TERRIBLE defensively, on some other rube. Throw in some money and take an A prospect but get rid of him. We”ll see

    • I agree, with the other pieces we have, I don’t see us needing to get rid of him. Having said that, like with any other deal, it’s all about what we’d get back in return. If we can get something decent for JPA? Great, roll the dice with Uncle Buck and TDA. If we can off load Buck for a TB size bag of popcorn? Even better. And if there isn’t any takers or the right price for either? Its not a catching platoon that will sink the Jays. A mid season deal might happen and AA can say, “Oh yeah, and you’re taking Buck”.

  16. Hey Stoeten,

    This keeps bugging me about the trade. Lots of the media outlets are talking about how Loria screwed the people of Miami into building a stadium with tax dollars. Yadda Yadda Yadda. But Florida doesn’t have State income tax. Their tax base comes mostly from Sales Tax, which disproportionately affects tourists from other states and countries. You can argue that the city built a stadium to increase tourism and drive more sales tax dollars.

    Don’t get me wrong, Loria is a motherfucker and it sucks what he did to the fans hopes and expectations, but it is not like he stole a part of everyone’s paycheck. He skimmed the top off the “Tourist” Tax, and the city let him do it because they thought it would help them bring in more tax revenue.

    • It’s more so property taxes I’m guessing…if it was the municipality that helped pay for the stadium then it’s all the local residents (some being snowbirds I’m sure) who paid their property taxes that went into this new stadium…..maybe not….just a thought

      • If I were one of those citizens, Id be more pissed about what a fugly, nasty, eye sore of a park they built than this salary dump.

        new players can be developed, traded for, and yes, even signed (players will always want to live in miam regardless of this debacle)

        but that stadium….oh are stuck with that piece of shit for the next 30 years .

    • It’s not about Florida, it’s about Miami Dade county, who fronted the money for the stadium. Their revenue comes from property taxes and local levies. Even if the money was coming in from tourists and out of state visitors due to the high proportion of tourism dollars in the economy, it still means that Jefferey Loria gets a brand new ball park while schools are closing, state and local employees are being furloughed, and other services are being cut and/or underfunded. For a ballpark that hasn’t drawn any new fans (as most studies showed it wouldn’t).

  17. I’m curious, do you think AA might turn around and actually flip someone like Buehrle. His contract seems to be the one that’s really going to start dragging on the Jays in terms of $/WAR considering his age at $18 and $19 million for the next two years. That’s money I’d rather see them give Johnson going forward.

    As for actually moving Buehrle at this stage if he could get two more pitchers either through trade or free agency that are better than Buehrle and Happ combined then I’d be all for it. It definitely give him greater flexibility going forward though it would probably be riskier because you’d be looking at injury concern guys like Marcum, McCarthy and Villanueva instead. Of course it for 2012 it’s not really an issue because Buehrle is actually cheap for the expected performance this year.

    • I really don’t think Buehrle is that moveable. If Buerhle gets moved it’s going to have to be now, because you certainly aren’t going to find takers for him at 2/37. $/WAR for this year doesn’t really matter because whoever has this guy on August 1st, 2013 is almost certainly stuck with him for the duration of the contract. You’re in it for the long haul. Furthermore, his $/WAR makes him “cheap” on the free agent market but not the trade market, where he’s compared to the universe of pre-arb and arb pitchers too. The Jays, in desperate need of an innings-eater, are actually one of the only teams that Buerhle at his current rate actually makes sense for. I don’t know how many other teams there are like that.

      • Well all I will say to him being immovable is look at the Wells deal or what LA did last year with players. One thing I think that’s very fair to say, at least in the early glow of the new TV money, no contract is the ball and chain it was a few years ago. When all 30 teams get that additional $25 million next it will be a whole other ball game. Of course I’m not saying it’s not possible the Jays would have to chip in a few million to get it done.

        I agree with you about Buehrle being a need here in 2013 but I was really thinking ahead for Johnson and 2014 and 2015. I’d take Johnson and 5th starter type over Buehlre and 5th starter type for the same money any day of the week.

        • Certainly it’s not impossible to move him, but it’s not likely. For every Wells that gets moved, there’s 5 Sorianos/Zitos/Ryan Howard-types that aren’t able to be pawned off unless you eat virtually all of the money (see: AJ Burnett). I do agree with you that it is possible that the TV money shifts the market and makes these contracts palatable, it’ll be interesting to see how things shake out this offseason and how the market responses. If teams go crazy on Edwin Jackson/Kyle Lohse types, maybe Buerhle starts looking a lot better come February and March.

          • Funny you mention Soriano I was going to add him to my list of examples since he was going to be moved last year but he blocked a trade.

            That said you could be right about his contract looking more favourable after all those other guys sign.

      • The last time Buehrle was worth less than 3 bWAR was 2006. He’s *averaged* 4.2 bWAR over that time span.

        Fangraphs has him at about the same, except a 2.1 fWAR last season, and consequently a slightly lower average.

        You’re telling me that level of pitcher, whose stats would easily slot as second-tier ace, is unmoveable? Are you joking?

  18. Fucking awesome!

    Space for one of Melky or McCarthy or Marcum on a short one year deal for them to rebuild value.

  19. I just want them to approve what will forever be known to Jays fans as The Mathis Trade.

  20. The confusion between 4 and 8m is, I believe, from Buerhle. He has a deferred 4m signing bonus the Marlins are paying.

  21. I’d bet this is true.. as Noam Chomsky said, “If you want to know the truth about the world, just read the business section of the newspaper”. They often report on items in there very matter-of-factly that if reported through other prisms would be shocking. (Although I don’t know I’d call this shocking)

  22. You know, a payroll of $120m is nice, but is it really inconsistent with where it’s been in the past under AA? Our ML roster spend has been around $80-85m for a few years now. Our Draft and International spend has been around $15-20m. Uncle Bud has cut off our left arm on the player development side, so we’ll be capped at $5-10m. That savings, plus the new TV contracts next year, contribute another $30-35m available for the ML payroll. That would be $110-120m right there.

    So I’m not sure Rogers Media’s bottom line is going to suffer at all from this increase. Because, it isn’t really an increase.

    • The jays lost significant amounts if revenue sharing like Washington did. The writing was on the wall that these teams needed to sink or swim on their own dime.

      • Ed both you and Gil have good points. They are likely to save a few million, less than $10 million if I judge it correctly, on amateur and international spending, but that and more is going to continue to be clawed back from the revenue sharing they were receiving prior to the new CBA. The fact that they can jump up the payroll so much just goes to show they always could but chose not to.

        They way I look at is this, and again it’s just my opinion of course, do you really think Rogers would bump the payroll up to this amount in 2013 and even more going forward if they were actually going to lose money? I certainly don’t. I do realize it might have an effect on their profit margins if the revenue doesn’t keep pace by the end of the year, but them taking a loss?

  23. With Buhrle, does he fit with the Jays short and long term? I’m not sure but maybe the jays see him as more valuable than I do. He will profile well against the hard throwing right handed bullpen.

  24. Is geting Swisher a pipe dream? Anyone know what kind of contract he is looking for? Getting him would make too much sense… he can play LF, and 1B/DH. Have Swisher and Lind in the lineup against righties… Swisher and Rajai in the lineup against lefties.

    Against Righties:
    JPA or Buck (D’Arnaud later in the year)

    Against Lefties:
    JPA or Buck (D’Arnaud)
    Rajai Davis

    Nah, that’s just stupid. Too much sense.

    • This team doesn’t need Swisher. You drop that money on a JJ extension.

      • Swisher wants Jayson Werth money fuck that!!!!

        • Yup!!! Ignore my previous statement. Anything more than $12-13 mil per over 4… maybe 5 years would be too much for Swish.

      • Agree that a JJ extension would be nice. The way I look at it, this trade just put us on an even playing field with the the Yankees/Rays so it only makes sense to go one step further and try to gain an edge. One way would be to add another starter… however, another starting pitcher doesn’t help us when it comes to playoff time and we go down to a 3 or 4 man rotation anyways. Another bat would help us, both in season, and in the playoffs. LF, 2B, or 1B/DH are the obvious places we can upgrade with a bat…. a player who could be slotted into several of those positions allows for some pretty sweet platoon options. Swisher came to mind. I guess Gomes could be a cheaper option (although he doesn’t have the same track record of success).

        Having said that, if the Jays extended JJ, you won’t hear me complaining.

    • I think it is a pipe dream because he’ll cost more than $10m per. But totally agree that he would look awfully good in the 2 hole.

      Even clean up against righties to break up the right handed bats with Rasmus at 2 isn’t terrible.

  25. Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
    On #BlueJays: Anything is possible, but team did not get J. Johnson to flip him. Reality is, Jays still need – and want – one more starter

  26. Ken Rosenthal ‏@Ken_Rosenthal
    #BlueJays fans: Teams prefer to go into seasons with MORE than five starters. Again, Jays want one more.

  27. Also

    jp arencibia ‏@jparencibia9
    Not going anywhere… #GetUseToIt

    • hell yea.
      everyone should calm down on the TDA front. injury prone, never played a single game in the bigs.
      JPA is still young, and people seem to like him, even if we’d all be happier (i’m sure he would too) if his line stats took a big bump like his second go-’round in vegas. have some faith in our guys!

      JPA baby! guy even got into hockey last year and bro’d out with the leafs. i mean, we could get real cynical and say he was trying to ingratiate himself with toronto fans, but c’mon, you know that’s bullshit.

      • You, sir, are fucking ridiculous.

        • i try.
          but seriously. let’s let d’Arnaud play a fucking game before you anoint him the new jesus (montero [good version from minor leagues, not the one that hasn't been all that good yet])

          i guess my thinking is just: if other teams are aware that everyone wants TDA here, and JPA/Buck gone, it doesn’t exactly seem like the stuff that meaningful pieces coming back are made of…

    • Good for him. No need to trade JPA ASAP because Buck is here.

      These are new payroll parameters. 120 MLN + Get used to it.

      • That’s not at all why you’d trade him ASAP.

        But Buck and Wilson can hold down the fort until TDA is ready, so if a deal comes along that looks good, there’s no reason not to trade JPA– and no reason to believe anybody gave him an assurance that he’s definitely not moving anywhere this off-season. Because that’s ridiculous.

        Wouldn’t shock me if he’s referring to the fact that he’s not in this particular deal.

        • Buck was shitty last year and Wilson is no reason to trade anybody. Sure they can keep things together for TDA, but can TDA keep thing together? Great prospect, but not a sure thing.

          With the other options on the 40 man, I get it from an asset management perspective. But like it or not, JPAs the only controllable C we have that you can count on being above replacement. I bet JPAs here at least until we see TDA face some MLB pitching.

          Buck can be moved if we eat salary and Wilson can be flat out cut.

          • On-field, Buck and JPA aren’t that different. They’re valued differently because of off-the-field considerations, namely JPA’s control for 4 more years and Buck’s enormous contract.

            Buck’s batted ball profile doesn’t look that much different over the past two years aside from losing 100 points of BABIP from his 2010 year with the Jays.

            There’s not much separating Buck and JPA on the field, so you might as well cash in on JPA’s substantially larger market value.

          • agree completely. I don’t believe JPA is going anywhere at all-just can’t see it;plus he’ll only make 500k

        • @Stoeten.

          Ok but no need to dump JPA.

          What does JPA get you on the trade market?

          JPA + prospect for a LF?

          Would anyone want John Buck as a trade ?

    • If the team wants to be a contender next year, trading your best current catcher is probably not a great idea.

      JPA isn’t a superstar, but he’s definitely not a liability as far as catchers go. Lots of teams would be quite happy with JPA numbers from their catcher.

      It all depends on who you get back of course, but I bet he stays. Maybe next year after TDA has some MLB reps or at the deadline if the Jays are (dare I say it) not in contention.

    • Well, that almost had correct grammar.

  28. I am glad Stoeten picked up on the Globe & Mail article.

    It looks like someone was awake in the Rogers accounting department last year.

    They realized that changing the uniforms & new marketing strategy & better opening day roster led to a big attendance increase & tv ratings etc…

    From Rogers perspective an extra 40 million USD into MLB payroll should translate into higher season ticket sales & more advertisers .

    You can be sure there will be new advertisers on sporstnet broadcasters next year.

    The extra 25 million USD helps which offsets the cut in revenue sharing from the MLB that no longer classifies Toronto as a small market team.

  29. So when are we hiring Motolla as a hitting coach?

    • Managers usually like to get a say in who is on the staff, at least somewhat.

      • Of course, it would just seem awkward with Murphy being the hitting coach for all these speedsters with not a lot of power, but hey, maybe he can do it.

        • @fatpuppy

          With so many speedsters on the team, who’s the best manager available that can harness the running game?

          The Jays were reckless with Farrell but someone should be able to get a better running game organized.

  30. Generally speaking, if the Jays CAN afford one more upgrade (say at $10m per) would you want a SP or LF/1B/DH?

    I’m thinking the bat.

    Bats play every day and Happ was showing us some good starts in a small sample last year.

    • Agreed LF/1B/DH would be ideal with maybe Lind going out in a trade….

      Hutchinson, Drabek could be back at all star break… McGowan hopefully is healthy too in spring training

    • Pitching, pitching, pitching.

      Happ looks a way better sixth starter than a fifth, and who is the current number six? Chad Jenkins? McGowan’s ghost?

      • Having Jenkins in the rotation would be like buying a Ferrari and then putting firestone tires on it.

      • Changing my tune. I gotta believe that a decent platoon bat could be found relatively cheaply so if you’re going to add one more heft salary, make it a pitcher. I’d rather have 1 more decent SP + cheap platoon bat than 1 big bat.

      • I would focus on pitching. Who and how would be dictated by how the free agent market shapes up, which could take awhile. I wouldn’t mind seeing Marcum on a 2 year deal with a club option. Or maybe flipping a piece from the Marlins haul (or a substitute like JPA) + mid-level prospects for a back end starter via trade. Could guys like Niese, Masterson, Anderson, be available via trade?

        There will be some minor league free agent pick ups between now and spring training, but realistically, you can only expect middling results from AAAA types.

        • Haren?

          • Well not knowing his medicals it gives you pause but from a pure risk reward situation I’d be all in on him with the last of my dough. If he comes back healthy you’ve got at worst 3 #2′s in Johnson, Morrow and Haren. That would be pretty fucking sick over the course of a season not to mention a playoff series as well.

      • @Stoeten

        It depends on how healthy McGowan’s ghost is.

  31. Another option for the Jays pen if Oliver doesn’t come back is not to put Happ there but use someone cheaper like Cecil. By sending Happ to AAA the team would save about $1.5 million if Happ does indeed score $3.8 million in arbitration. Add that to Oliver’s $3.0 million and subtract Cecil’s $0.5 million and AA just saved another $4 million.

    Funny how people were bitching about AA making nickel and dime moves with Davis, Aviles, Rogers and Izturis a week ago. If you want to combine those savings with the above move you’ve almost got money for a pretty decent 5th starter or a left fielder.

    • They have a perfectly acceptable fifth starter in Happ. I dont get all the Happ hate around here. the guy is not Laffey or even Cecil… how many lefty starting pitchers you know can put up a K rate of one per inning. perfectly good FIP of 4 (for a back end guy)

      im all for adding another starter..but I wouldnt pay much to add a 4th/5th guy as i consider them only injury insurance, and unlikely to outperform Happ.

      • Actually if you go back and look at the ERA+ numbers I posted the other day he’s worse than both those guys over the last two years. So from my perspective I can’t understand were all the Happ love comes from.

        Again to be perfectly fair, his FIP in 2012 does point to better things to come, but we all know that FIP is just an estimator and there’s no guarantee. We could see a couple more years of actual shady results before his performance matches up with his FIP like we did with Morrow. My point is if we have to live with him so be it but I’d prefer an upgrade and having him as depth. Can’t live without that depth and I really don’t call McGuire or Carreno true starter depth.

      • @alaska.

        Happ isn’t useless. He’s perfect as a 5th starter

        IIRC didn’t AA want him in the Halladay deal?

    • Does Happ have any minor league options remaining? I don’t think he does.

      • Yep I think he does. The one thing I wish that Baseball Reference did was to track the number of options remaining. It would be fantastic if they just tracked whether or not an option was actually used in prior years if it’s too complicated to track for the current year.

        • When Happ was acquired by the Jays from the Astros, I remember talk about how he could be a DFA candidate. I can’t remember if this was related to his lack of minor league options or if it was because he was arbitration eligible. I haven’t checked the new CBA to see the ramifications.

          • He was a non-tender candidate, not a DFA candidate. That was more to do with the fact that he had no future in Houston, a team going nowhere that is building to the future.

            From what I can tell Happ burned options in 2008, 2010, and 2011, so he has out of options.

          • Never mind, he didn’t burn the option in 2011 since he was only down for 11 days.

          • There you go. Thanks for checking Brumfield.

            And yeah, meant to say non-tender.

  32. This trade is the “bridge trade”

    It bridges the gap between the present, and the upcoming years when the AA era draft picks enter their major league service years. by the time the salaries of buehrle and reyes escalate, the effects will be mitigated by the presence of replenisable cheap home grown, controlled talent..

    or at least that is the plan put forth to rogers i would assume, by AA

    • Yep.

    • You nailed it. At least Roger’s management was wise enough to see the gap that was there even though they helped create some of it in the first place. Injuries did the rest.

    • @alasken

      Good point.

    • I think you’re right on with this.

      Reyes and Buehrle start escalating next year when Davis, Lind, Buck and Johnson come off the books. Gose, Sierra, TDA and Sanchez? replace them. (note: please re-sign Johnson).

      Two years later Buehrle’s contract is off the books when Syndergaard, Smoral, Norris and Osuna are more than ready for the bigs.

      In the meantime, load up on middle infielders/pitchers in the draft and keep digging for a long term 1B and 2B.

  33. McCarthy + Gomes (mashes lefties) + trade for Crisp. Release davis to free up some cash. Eat some money to trade buck.

    • Don’t think it turned out Davis was non-guaranteed, so releasing him doesn’t free cash. Still gotta pay him.

  34. Big bad Jays maybe better lay low on the spending or the other clubs will have a bigger shitfit. Lol I get a kick out of how some owners become all indignent about the trade,say its bad for baseball but don’t mind spending like drunken sailors on average free agents. Fire sales like this wouldnt happen if years ago teams like the Yankees, Redsux, and others hadn’t drivin up the market for player salaries.

  35. I want Garza…..He will be healthy and we still have tons of prospects….You go for it this year and he has proven he can pitch in the AL east

  36. Not getting holland fro JPA maybe tda and a prospect

    • I’d prefer to see Brett Anderson from the A’s but Beane claims he isn’t movin him and since the megatrade, i don’ t think the Jays match up now.

      • They just need a solid innings eater…Not an ace….Need another 3 or 4…..Who knows how Ricky performs

  37. This trade also puts AA in the driver’s seat for trying to acquire another pitcher. He does not need to accept what others lowball. He can now go about just trying to make the best deals he can for the rest of the offseason because he has what he needs- it’s now just what he wants. Again, AA’s best accomplishment was in getting Rogers to spend some cache Monet.

    • I guess we really are going to have to find something else to bitch about now that Rogers has gone all billionaire owner on us, or at least a more recognizable version of the one they were previously pretending to be.

      I bet AA must have wet himself once he actually got permission to either take on a lot more salary in terms of free agents or just the permission to pull the trigger on this trade.

      • @night manimal.

        That would have been a fun meeting to watch.

        Did AA approach Rogers & say we need 120 million to get competitive?

        Did Rogers tell AA, that the team needs to be competitive so here’s the chequebook?

        Who made the first move?

  38. Why does everyone love this trade? We gave up 4 top prospects for what?

    1 year of johnson

    buerhle is just an above avg pitcher with grossly overpaid contract

    reyes is injury prone, now has to play on turf, with another backloaded massive contract.

    to me this is a 1 year gamble. the jays are counting on making the playoffs. 500 k in increased attendance = 10+ million. 2 playoff games = 3 mil

    if this gamble doesn’t work then AA will be trying to dump these bad contracts.

    we gave up half the farm for a 1 year gamble. I don’t like it.

    • Gave up the farm? Have another look troll.

    • Every trades a gamble. This one has its risks but huge upside. They really didnt give up a lot.

    • Holy fuck people like you really piss me off.

      The Jays do nothing, you whine. The Jays do something, you whine.

      Just fuck off already.

      • sorry but blind mice like you are not capable of thinking

        this trade doesn’t even make them a 90 win team

        • Maybe not but I think you’re underestimating how hard it is to go from 85 wins to 90 wins because those 5 wins aren’t achieved in a linear fashion.

          • you obviously don’t know what the word underestimate means. that’s exactly what I’m saying it is hard to go from 85 to 90 that’s why you don’t bet the farm for a 1year gamble.

        • @BMH

          I never said anything about wins or even about how good it will make them. Construe my words however you want, it just makes you look more ridiculous.

          I guess I can’t even call out a bandwagoner when their intelligence is rivaled by a gold fish and a worm sharing a braincell.

        • @ Big Mouth

          If you are a scouting guy, the Jays just got themselves an all-star SS, a fucking stud in Johnson, a reliable innings eater in Buerhle, and a versatile super-utility guy in Bonifacio. Buck provides AA with some flexibility if he wants to trade one or more of his many catchers. Plus, the Jays are getting $8M in salary relief.

          If you are a saberhead, Fangraphs and ESPN ZIPS Guru Dan Symborski (or however you spell his fucking name), has already done some math and figures the trade will get the Jays to 90 wins.

          If you are a degenerate gambler, odds of winning the world series went from 100-1 to 15-1 after the trade.

          Put that in your crack pipe and smoke it buddy.

          • as I said this was a 1 year gamble.

            maybe they get to 90 wins this year with johnson but there is no way he stays after that so then what?

            you are back to square one with no prospects to trade.

      • As I commented the other day:

        “There are none so blind as those that will not see.”


        “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make it drink.”

        • you forgot

          “those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it”

          • And yet you insist on posting the same shit again and again, ignoring everyone else’s POV. You are gathering moss my friend, not momentum.

          • They didn’t “bet the farm.” They acquired 4 good players whose presence improves the team instantly. And John Buck. They gave up some decent prospects, but still have a fair number of better prospects. The notion that Johnson will leave after this season is your opinion, not a fact. It could happen, and at worst the Jays will get a draft pick. If he, and they, have success, he may like it here and want to stay. His agent said he was excited to be coming here, which could be BS, or could be true.

            With the team as presently constituted, the Jays could very well win the division. NY is not a lock. Tampa is not a lock. Baltimore is by no means a lock. Boston is a lock not to win the division. This couldn’t have been said prior to the trade, but it’s the case now.

            Next year, if Johnson goes, they will have Drabek and Hutchison back from injury, and probably somebody else whom we have thought about yet. They’ll have some dough to take on salary via trade or FA. They’ll still have Reyes, Buehrle and Bonifacio. Lind will be gone most likely. Rajai may be gone. Gose will be that much better. Etc. Etc.

            They may not win this year, but they have a legitimate chance to do so. And they are better going forward. That’s all I want as a fan. Enjoy the rest of your miserable day.

        • atta boy spud-you tell em.
          Look, we got maybe the best ss in baseball in this trade if he stays healthy. Look around MLB and come up with others that can do all the things well like this guy.
          Sure Andrus in Texas is good but he won’t steal 40 bases like Reyes( Profar is still a prospect). Cabrera in Cleveland is good but makes quite a few errors… so arguably the best ss in MLB, a super sub in Emilio or 2B( depends), an innings eatrer and at least 1 year of an ACE, whio if he bolts after a year ( hoe not) brings back 2 draft choices.
          We give up an OK ss, an OK RHP, a lousy hitting SS prospect and 3 others that are prospects..or is it suspects. Mathis doesn’t count nor Buck. Carry on.

  39. Melky is almost too perfect.. Though another starter makes sense too. As long as we can still try to extend JJ then I say YOLO bitch!

  40. Jays still looking for starting pitching according to Dr. Rosen Rosen.

  41. would anyone like to comment on what was given up for latos and what we gave up? it seems like we could have got latos for what we gave up.

    • It’s a good question but then we would have had to fill the holes those players created.

    • Latos aint no Josh Johnson. Maybe as good as Burhle. And Jays also got some shortstop named Reyes. Way better deal than the Latos deal.

    • I would hope to fuck we would have gotten Latos for the haul we sent to Florida.

      I also think Johnson, Buehrle, Bonifacio, Buck and mothafuckin Jose Reyes will add a lot more value than one lonesome Matt Latos.

      Christ. Reyes alone adds more pure value on the field than Latos. At a greater cost of course but I don’t see any way to compare these two deals.

    • San Diego found a real good fit with Cincinnati. I don’t think we can look to hard back at that one. They got MLB ready pieces back exactly in the positions they had glaring holes. It was a no-brainer for the Padres.

    • Seems, huh? What the blue fuck? How about you look up what Cincinatti gave up for one guy? Wait! I’ll do it for you: 1B Yader Alonso, RHP Edinson Volquez, RHP Brad Boxberger, and C Yasmani Grandal. So, yeah, we absolutely could have, you handjob. You trading card GMs are a hoot. Do you not know that we now have the best SS in the AL and a killer rotation without giving up our best prospect and by sending some spare parts Miami’s way? Of course you don’t!

  42. As my late mother used to say, “You’ve got your shaft half in — go all the way.”

  43. From the latest MLBTR post:

    “Selig has heard a lot of grumbling from other owners about the trade, writes Ken Davidoff of The New York Post. Clubs from the AL East, NL West, and NL Central are not happy with the on-field ramifications of the swap.”

    Well they can just fuck right the hell off. Especially the unnamed ‘clubs from the AL East’.

    • “On field” ramifications?

      What team is happy with the ” on-field” ramifications of a trade that makes their divisional opponents better?

      What does that even mean?

  44. Ha. Ya, we couldve got Latos for that package. Though we did get a top 4 SS thrown in.

    Try replicating this trade another way – 1 yr of a solid starter (lets say garza), mid-rotation innings eater (lets say edwin jackson) and an injury prone top 5 SS (tulowitski).

    Assuming this what would Garza, Tulo and Edwin Jackson cost us in prospects and cash? A fuck-of-lot more than the jays just gave up.

    • Johnson > Garza….

      But I totally get you’re point

    • Agreed. This deal also allows the Jays first crack at extending Josh Johnson which is not insignificant. The team feels a lot better about extending someone they have seen on the inside and they acquired players that probably would never have considered them as free agents.

      The Jays were just lucky enough that Florida had second thoughts about the way they constructed their team and enough ballz to blow it up.

  45. I have a weird feeling that the next starting pitcher than dr Rosen Rosen thinks we’re after is Scott feldman

  46. The way the new contracts are backloaded, they can’t afford to add any long-term pieces without blowing the 120mil in future years, especially if they want to be able to at least try to extend guys like JJ. And I agree with other posters – it would’t be smart to back ourselves into a corner financially before the trade deadline.

    • Agree 100% that why the starting pitcher the jays are after is probably a reclamation project or a cheap guy on the redound like Shaun marcum

    • Don’t forget the following contracts come off the books in 2014. Johnson – $13.75 million, Oliver – $3.0 million, Buck $6.5 million, Davis $2.5 million for a total of $25.75 million.

      Expected raises for returning players that are not arbitration eligible will eat about $16.95 million of that if you bring back Lind for his $7 million option baring a huge turnaround is unlikely but we will live him in for now because I’m slightly delusional or a supreme optimist, you choose.

      Rasmus, Happ and Bonifacio are the only 3rd year eligible players on the team in 2014 and those years could potentially be expensive if they have good seasons. If you give them another 50% bump over what they made in 2013 you’re on the hook for an addition $5.4 million. Again that number has the chance to be a lot higher but it’s impossible to say at this point.

      The other arbitration eligible guys – JPA, Lincoln and Rogers are first year eligible in 2014 and they usually just get double what they had the year before if they had good seasons, so count them at $1 million each or $1.5 million more than last year combined.

      So if you count Lind in for 2014 (I’m such an optimist I know) you’re looking at roughly a bump of $23.85 million for 2014 minus $25.75 million for a net decrease of $1.9 million in payroll compared to 2013.

      If you filled those vacant spots internally with Gose for Davis, d’Arnaud for Buck, Cecil for Oliver, Hutchison for Johnson – I know, I know that makes me a sad boy, at the major league minimum of $500k for everyone with the exception Cecil who would be in the same spot as Rogers at $1.0 million then you’d be virtually even with just a $600k increase. If you take Lind out you’re back to a decrease of $4.4 million compared to 2013.

      However, let’s not forget Daddy Selig is also increasing your allowance by another $25 million in 2014.

      Imo AA has done a really great job in setting up the payroll for the next couple of years at least especially if Rogers sticks with it.

  47. LOL Alomars HIV wins best commenter name of all time

  48. I thought there were some excellent handles a year ago but a lot of them disappeared or didn’t stick. Everyone should try their best to have a Jays related one here on DJF.

  49. funny there hasn’t been a single word said yet from any of the Marlin’s players.

  50. It seemed like a longshot to bring up his name 3 days ago, but I think the chances of acquiring Halladay at the deadline or next offseason through free agency has gone up quite a bit if AA wants him.

    If the Jays make the playoffs this year but lose JJ as a free agent, Doc seems like the perfect pitcher to pursue because he likely won’t command a long term commitment.

    Hell, maybe Philly and Doc can be convinced this offseason.

    Locking up $20 million in a less-than-ace-like Doc might not be the best way for Philly to use their payroll to upgrade their 2013 roster.

    And considering the Jays may very well have a better chance at the playoffs than Philly in 2013, perhaps Roy feels he has a better chance at a ring returning to TO.

    I don’t know if there is some magical way to dump Buehrle and re-acquire Doc; but, fuck, who the hell saw this blockbuster coming. Anything is possible with AA.

    • @jays2010.

      The return of Halladay for a post season run would be a dream come true.

      I know Stoeten is skeptical but if it did happen, having halladay lead the jays to the playoffs in 2013 would be magical.

      stranger things have happened.

      I mean a week ago if someone said the Jays would get josh johnson,Mark buerhle & Jose Reyes, you would have thought they were nuts.

    • Oh my god I’m weeping. Openly weeping. That would be just phenomenal.

    • As much as I love Doc, Cliff Lee would be great prize for the playoffs if the Phillies don’t want to part with Doc.

  51. Ok, why is everyone so hard on Rajai Davis. He was a pretty solid outfielder this year, and he even hit fairly well in clutch situations. I think having a guy around that with those talents plus his speed on the bases, is not really a bad thing. In my mind he has played better than Snider ever did at a major league level, and everyone loved Lunchbox. He may not be the ultimate choice for left field, but I see a lot of value there.

    • I liked Davis over Snider, but Davis cannot play as the everyday guy. Rajai seems to play better when he gets a little starved for playing time

  52. FWIW, I heard a segment with ‘Hall Of Famer’ Bob Elliott today on McCown’s show. He said that he was hearing rumblings about Rasmus possibly being a guy who could move…sounded like maybe the Jays had gotten some inquiries or that there was some interest out there. Of course it’s Elliott talking / mumbling, so who knows. And of course Bob was loving the notion.

    Anyways…certainly a lot of moving parts.

    • Mccowan hates Rasmus. I wonder who would want Rasmus & what would they give up.

      I like Colby & think he is awesome in CF. His bat was magical for 6 weeks last year but I think he was playing hurt the rest of the year.

    • They both like Gose in LF. Ugh.

      • I guess you could argue he gets on base more then Rasmus but I would rather see him in Buffalo at the start of the season

    • Rasmus was awesome in the first half of the year completely fell off in 2nd half. Im not sure you want to sell low on him. McCown loves ripping on him dont know why its like he got a personal vendata against him.

  53. Guess what, Elliot- everyone is available on the Jays for the right price. AA doesn’t sour too quickly on guys the front office made pains to get.

  54. $120M? Peanuts! Ben Cherington wants you to know he expects the Sux payroll to be one of the highest in baseball next season. He’s out there with his measuring tape, making sure his is the biggest in town. He’s got money to spend and he is gonna be spending it! Yes siree.

    • Cherington is a moron I will laugh so hard if he blows over 60M AAV on these free agents

    • One the highest is pretty ambiguous at this stage. With a straight face he say that and still bring the Sox payroll in at around $130 million and potentially still be in the top 7 or 8 teams.

      The article is also misleading because it doesn’t count the shit ton of arb 2 and arb 3 guys which can be pretty expensive as in Ellsbury’s case as he made $8 million as an Arb 2 guy in 2012.

  55. Do you ever realize Jose Reyes plays for your favourite baseball team and pop a semi? *swoon*

  56. Bitch all you want about Lawrie’s youthful aggressiveness and recklessness, but he gave all the hockey households from Owen Sound to Langley a reason to pay attention to the Jays in 2012.

    Which in turn help set the stage with higher ratings and the massive cash infusion. Fuckin’ EH I SAY!!!!

  57. Platoon Brian Chippendale at DH. He really is a designated hitter.

  58. I still thin the Jays will move either Arencebia or Rasmus before the year starts and will move Bonifacio to centre and sign a LF and maybe add a Mcarthy or someone cheap.

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