Well well well, according to a release from the club at the stroke of midnight, the Jays have declined to offer a contract to arbitration-eligible catcher Bobby Wilson.

This surely makes JP Arencibia’s week– and John Buck’s, most likely– as it significantly cuts down the flexibility Alex Anthopoulos has to deal one of his catchers, at least for the time being.

Obviously the Jays could still pick up a catcher if they decide to deal either Arencibia or Buck– since they now have an open space on the 40-man roster, maybe they even have their eye on one of the non-tenders, like Geo Soto, who has been dropped by the Rangers. But since Wilson was theirs for the having, and Soto is now a free agent, that doesn’t seem all to likely.

No, what seems most likely– now more than ever– is that JP Arencibia are going to head into the season as the club’s starting catchers, with Travis d’Arnaud starting the year in Buffalo and needing to force his way to the Majors.

Granted, this doesn’t mean that anything is set in stone, or that an offer couldn’t still come up that might change the team’s mind about parting with Arencibia and letting Buck or d’Arnaud take the reins, with another player coming in as a backup, but it’s certainly a much stronger signal that they don’t feel the need to spin off one of the current group than it would have been if they’d held Wilson.

And really, that’s OK.

JP Arencibia is a decent-enough trade piece, to be sure, and Travis d’Arnaud is even better, but the biggest needs the Jays have at the moment are for rotation depth at Triple-A and a platoon partner for Adam Lind. Both of those goals can be accomplished for cheap on the free agent market. And even though it will cost more, so can adding a starter to push J.A. Happ out of the rotation.

Yes, it’s very possible the Jays could find a deal for that kind of starter, but the price in talent from an already-thinned system would be steep, and Alex Anthopoulos himself has indicated that money probably remains for the club to make a play for a short-term starter, of which there are still many on the market: Erik Bedard, Joe Blanton, Dallas Braden, Ryan Dempster, Dan Haren, John Lannan, Francisco Liriano, Shaun Marcum, Brandon McCarthy, Kevin Millwood, Joe Saunders, Carlos Villanueva, Chris Young, and others.

Hey, I didn’t say they were all good, just options.

Point is, adding one of those names to the rotation and keeping all of the non-Wilson catchers may, in fact, be the club’s best bet. I mean… it’s only money. And apparently Rogers is actually, finally, willing to spend it.

Comments (231)

  1. The JPA haters will be upset, I’m sure.

    • DJFers will riot over not having the flexibility to trade JPA for half of the players in MLB.

      • It’s not like they couldn’t trade him easily enough if a good offer comes along and get another catcher to backup Buck. There are other guys like Bobby Wilson out there (and potentially, even Bobby Wilson himself).

      • Agreed. A few weeks ago, JPA tweeted that he wasn’t going anywhere.

        I don’t have any problems with Buck & JPA. TDA in Buffalo is a good insurance policy.

        If he does very well, maybe he will be here in July.

      • They can still trade Arencibia and make D’Arnaud the starter. I never understood why Bobby Wilson, he of the 593 career OPS, was ever considered to be a depth option.

    • I don’t think this closes the book on any sort of JPA move. The Jays could sign him or any number of similar replacement level catchers (or acquire them off waivers or acquire them for next to nothing minor leaguers) back later in the offseason. This is probably more of a gesture of good faith to allow Wilson to pursue a better opportunity than it is any sort of pronouncement on which way the Jays catching situation is going in 2013.

      • Agreed. I still think it is possible they may dump Buck next week, and take back some spare catcher from the trading partner ( example = Thole if we deal with the Mets). We could still see a Buck + cash+? for a Dillon Gee or simialr type of move elsewhere.

    • In all honesty though whats wrong with trading jpa and having buck and wilson start the season as the catching tandem. Buck is not a worse hitter than jpa and wilson isnt a worse hitter than mathis. How much are they losing? VERY marginal. When darnaud comes up thats when it’ll be a big upgrade hopefully.

      • Buck in 2011/12: 809 AB, .213 with 28 HR and 98 RBI
        JPA in 2011/12: 790 AB, .225 with 41 HR and 134 RBI

        Buck certainly is a worse hitter than JPA, and JPA has more upside.

        • Uh, no.

          JPA hits in a hitter’s park. You know, the same hitter’s park where Buck was an all star.

          Buck hit in a pitcher’s park.

          They have basically the same skill set.

          JPA is not really better and he could confirm his future as a backup catcher if his atrocious K/BB catches up to him this year.

        • Really? Batting average and RBI totals? Really?


          wOBA only has a difference of 12 points over those two years. 10 “points” of wRC+.

          So… sure, Arencibia has hit better. Though, if you trust UZR to evaluate catchers OK defensively (I don’t entirely), Buck has been worth almost a full win more (per FanGraphs), thanks to that an to baserunning.

          Add in a third year of data for Buck and he smokes him across the board.

          I can’t really argue, with JPA’s improved second-year defence, and Buck’s bat getting so much value from 2010, that it’s really a wash in the real world, but it sure is a lot closer than your numbers make it look.

          • Well yeah, except Buck is in his decline phase, and while it obviously won’t be a linear plummet as it sort of looks right now, expecting him to come close to his age 29-30 season after two bad ones is more than a little unlikely.

            Arencibia, on the other hand, is about to enter his theoretical peak years and still has some upside. Not that I wouldn’t trade him for another valuable asset, but if you gave me the choice of going into the season with either Arencibia or Buck it would be Arencibia by a mile, even if he was making the same money as Buck.

          • Well, no, avg/HR/RBI weren’t the only things I consulted in my comparison of these two, but I’m not getting where you say “add in a third year of data for Buck and he smokes him across the board” when JPA didn’t have a third full season to compare with.

            Using Baseball-Ref, Buck’s OPS+ in the past two years averaged 81 (as a veteran) while JPA averaged 90 (as a young player in his first two full seasons). Buck’s WAR totaled 0.8 while JPA totaled 2.4 in these two seasons. Their dWAR is identical.

            For that comparison, JPA earned 900K while Buck earned $11M. Far better bang for the (ah) Buck to further show that JPA had the better two seasons.

          • So you looked up other things, and then chose to quote RBI as your evidence?

            Their salaries should be irrelevant. You have to pay both of them the same amount regardless of whether they start or not. The only way the salaries matter is if you’re trading one and feel you get more value from the salary relief of trading Buck than the assets you would get for trading Arencibia.

        • The difference in avg is small and Buck is better at getting on base which was a huge problem for this lineup last season. Im also ok with losing a bit of power. Im just not an arencibia fan as you can see. Buck isnt great either but as a stopgap till darnuaud is ready hes fine.

          • Why are people in such a rush to trade a 26 year old catcher with 43 career HR’s entering his 3rd season? Sounds like crazy talk to me. I’d trade him for Dickey but otherwise, I’m fine with keeping him.

          • The comparative on JPA and Buck seems futile as they are both weak defensively. Weak as in can we win a WS with either of these two guys as a starter? – no. Need some help here AA

          • Right, because nobody has ever won a World Series with a sub-par defensive catcher. I’m pretty sure Jorge Posada was a figment of my imagination.

          • Good point Stoeten.

          • @ Stoet. Pat Borders was a WS MVP and a consistent hitter. His D was lacking at blocking the plate at times but was able to make guys like Morris, Stewart, Hentgen, Ward, Henke potch their best. No I certaintainly don’t put Buck or JPA in his class. Use all the comparative stats to make your argument but Borders is superior….we need a #1 catcher, and AA will get one soon

          • Birddawg, the only problem is, you’re quoting myths. Or, more accurately put, horseshit.

            Borders was replacement level for the vast majority of his career, and sorry, you can’t tell me not to quote the relevant data. Your warm fuzzy memory and years of mythologizing of those clubs isn’t exactly compelling to people you’re trying to make an argument to.

          • Stats are relevant absolutly. Some things go beyond measurement i think. How can I prove my contention that top flight pitchers don’t like JPA behind the plate? JPA still has too many past balls (yes and wild pitches) for my liking. He still jumps around behind the plate, sets up late, and his pitch selection is still a work in progerss. How do you measure the pitchers confidence in him?
            Maybe you are correct and JPA can pe statistically proven to be the right guy – but I don’t think so

            • Again, you’re talking in myths and stuff you’re simply making up to serve your argument. The burden of proof in this is on you, my friend, and you’re coming up way short.

          • giving the nod to stoetsy here

            i recollect borders was average defensively, below average arm, good at blocking pitches in the dirt, good at handling pitchers, average offence at best

            JPA progressed from below average defensively to average last year, better bat than borders with more upside

            in other words me and stoetsy are smarter than all of you

            **stepping out of the dugout, waving to the crowd, making eye contact with stoetsy then bowing to the crowd generally, but because i looked at stoetsy just before i bowed he thinks I bowed at him, or did i?**

          • I will conceed the point, but I will win the War (see what I did there)

    • JP is the money burning a hole in most everyone’s pocket. That itch won’t go away this easily.

  2. How much more could really be forthcoming? The jays non-tendered a player who they got off waivers and doesn’t belong on the 40 man. This surprises me less than Corey wade

  3. As much as it made sense to keep Wilson on the 40 man up until now, I can’t see how this will affect a JPA or Buck trade in the least.

    Wilson was claimed on waivers because nobody else wanted him. Fringe catchers aren’t hard to find.

    Hell, AA could trade JPA or Buck on Monday and sign Wilson 5 minutes later.

  4. I dont get it. Why would the jays pick up wilson on waivers than non tender him. The guy makes peanuts (relative to pro sports). Why would they get rid of the flexibiily? Is the empty roster spot that valuable?

    • Actually, they could easily resign him later for less so i guess it doesnt matter. This has to be the least significant blog post ever on djf lol.

      • The fact that AA had Wilson on the 40 man so long was proof, in my mind, that he was open to trading either JPA or Buck.

        And since Wilson was on the 40 man before Buck, presumably JPA was the guy who was available for the right player.

        I guess the termination pay, along with not being a dick to Wilson, was enough for AA to let Wilson go.

    • These transactions happen all the time. A few years ago the Jays waived a crappy third baseman named Encarnacion, and he was picked up by Oakland, non-tendered weeks later, and ended up coming back to the Jays for less money. I wonder what happened to him…

  5. I’m still holding out hope for a Tuffy Gosewich cameo in Toronto.

  6. “I mean… it’s only money. And apparently Rogers is actually, finally, willing to spend it.”

    I still can’t believe Rogers is spending some actual money. I’m still shocked that trade actually happened.

    • Good perspective actually. I’m still not sure it really happened myself. It’s hard to believe that we’re here enthusiastically discussing baseball in November/December. (Is it not laughable and pathetic when 12-month-a-year hockey fans are calling jock talk radio in July about the junior draft or some such? but I digress.) The whole Blue Jays world has changed.

      • @Chris: the only major downside of the whole hockey thing making baseball such a huge deal in the Toronto area right now is that the longer the boots with blades don’t play, the more Damien Cox needs to troll other sports to create copy.
        I wish part of Brendan Kennedy’s assignment as the junior beat grunt on the Jays as to smack Cox on the nose like a misbehaving puppy with a Saturday edition every time he tries to write about baseball and say NO! BAD TROLL!

    • I remember making that exact comment and being shit on by a number of people. In business, and this is ultimately a business, you have to spend money( wisely!) to amke money. I made the comment that your team ( business) will always be mediocre unless you are in the upper quintile of payroll as it just tremendously increaeses the odds of having a good to great team year after year.
      Sure it is possible to “beat the odds’ , for awhile, with cheapo players and shrewd management like Tampa has done or catch lighting in a bottle ala Baltimore but nothing gets and keeps you there like good palyers and $$$.

    • “I still can’t believe Rogers is spending some actual money”

      You’ve got to be fucking kidding,Franko.

      “It’s hard to believe that we’re here enthusiastically discussing baseball in November/December.”

      @ chris3173
      Go look at the archives for DJF in Nov/Dec 2011,2010.

      @ fukstik
      Bullshit, It’s money spent wisely, the assets in the minor leagues and the financial flexibilty to complete deals.For example, even the yanks couldn’t have done the Marlin deal,They didn’t have the flexibilty.The cheapo players were there to aquire high upside draft picks that COULD be used as trade chips.

      • Radar:
        Since your name is a pallendron, you can see in my post, looked at either way, that I did put in parentheses the word “wisely”. You must spend wisely in baseball as you do in business and not like crazy batshit drunks on stupid stuff that sets you back years at a time. Other than that your points are fine.

        • @ fukstik

          I get testy when people forget what the goals were along the way,at different stages.
          I’m not a big fan of Rogers,the corporation but as a business, they are extremely successful.
          They’re not idiots in protecting and increasing value of their properties, and the plan set forth by Beeston makes sense to me.
          Even when AA was hired, i went WTF?, Beeston must know what he’s doing.
          In analysing the “why” of certain moves, the logic of it all makes sense.(At least in my fucked up mind).
          That’s why when commenters take the ” cheap Rogers shoulda done this earlier” stance, I get frustrated and vent.

          • I couldn’t agree more RADAR.

            All those little bullpen trades and minor moves over the past 3 years were done as according to the plan.

            At the time, they seemed insignificant, but the sums of their parts equals our current beastly roster.

            Saving money on guys in the pen and by having young, cost controllable players with upside has allowed them to make these moves.

            It has been the plan all along, most just weren’t buying it. I’ve been drinking the Kool-Aid AA has been serving since 2009, and it has culminated in this mega deal and, so far, successful offseason.

            They always said the money would be there when the timing was right. Not many fans and media types believed them, continuously asking ‘What is the actual payroll number?’ time and time again, all the while completely missing the point that it has never been about a concrete number.

      • +1

        There’s a reason the Jays have maybethe best team in the AL on a $120 mill payroll, while the Yankees are spending much more and the Red Sox will likely spend $120 million+ on a 70 – 75 win team.

        People continuously ignore the tremendous work AA has done the last 3 years to get to the point where it was prudent to make the Marlins blockbuster, sign Cabrera etc.

  7. Completely disagree Stoeten.

    AA had a deadline where he could control Bobby Wilson without it costing him a dime.

    The only affect it had was on the 40 man spot, which really isn’t a big deal considering how many guys inevitably rotate amongst the last couple of spots.

    There is no was in hell that AA makes this kind of a decision BEFORE the winter meetings have even started.

    I know you qualify the statement by saying that “if the right offer comes along” either JPA or Buck could be moved. But I think that’s misleading.

    I don’t think the chances of JPA or Buck being traded changed by a percentage point today.

    AA simply kept his flexibility as long as he could without costing the Jays a little money and fucking around Wilson the way JP did with Reed Johnson.

    • That’s really what you got out of what I was saying?

      Here’s the money quote, FYI: “it’s certainly a much stronger signal that they don’t feel the need to spin off one of the current group than it would have been if they’d held Wilson.”

      • I disagree with this as well.

        A stronger signal would have been DFAing Wilson more than 10 minutes before the non-tender deadline.

        If the non-tender deadline was November 28 or December 6 you can bet that Wilson would have been on the 40 man until the last possible minute in either scenario.

        Nothing significant has changed about the catcher situation. Wilson was acquired via waivers and he is currently a free agent. Signing Wilson or someone like him will not be challenging.

        There is no way a trade of JPA or Buck was ever contigent upon Bobby Wilson insurance.

        • Does this make sense to anyone else?

          • @ Stoeten

            No. It’s all speculation but it I concur. Wilson looked like insurance. A hedge.
            AA was gonna need to make moves. If the Marlin trade didn’t evolve then other moves were needed.
            Those would’ve needed to involve somebody at the MLB level.
            A certain amount of “WTF” was bandied about here when Mathis was re-signed and later Wilson was picked up.3 MLB catchers on the roster?
            Once the TRADE went down,Wilson was redundant and the easiest to discard.

          • @Stoeten.

            Let me put it this way. If the chances of JPA or Buck being traded were 50/50 Friday morning, I can’t see a logical reason why losing Bobby Wilson has changed those chances.

            It takes a pretty big leap of logic to go from Bobby Wilson being non-tendered (along with many other players) to JPA/Buck being safer in trade discussions.

            The two are not mutually exclusive. It’s December 1 for god sakes.

          • Still not quite getting my point. Again: “it’s certainly a much stronger signal that they don’t feel the need to spin off one of the current group than it would have been if they’d held Wilson.”

            The important thing here isn’t that they non-tendered him, it’s that they didn’t NOT non-tender him.

          • Have to say it doesn’t

  8. I thought Wilson would sign before the non tender deadline, similar to Jeff Mathis last year.

  9. This is not the Wilson I’m interested in. Time to bring the beard to TO.

  10. I like Arencibia’s character. But i just wish he didn’t strikeout so much. And he’s been horrendous at times behind the plate. It was nightmare-ish in his first full season, it got better last year, but still wasn’t above average by any means.

    One thing that’s really scary about Travis D”Arnaud is the fact that he’s extremely injury prone, I think he’s been injured every year that we’ve had him in our system. Hopefully we’ll get to see him make it to the show this year. I really wanna see what his bat can translate into @ the MLB level.

    • The injuries have mainly been freak ones, though.

    • This is the kind of shit that fans of other teams spew about TDA.

      ‘Injury prone’ is the guy out a week and a half every 2 months for ‘back spasms’ or ‘sore knees’ not a guy that tears his PCL sliding into a base.

      Freak injuries occur, it doesnt mean they’re any more or less likely to in the future.

  11. I hope AA still plans to acquire a legit major league starter. Haren, Marcum, Dempster, and McCarthy could all work depending on the price. An injury to Johnson, Buehrle or Morrow wouldn’t be so bad if that meant Happ was going to fill the spot. One more decent starter would mean the Jays have legit starting depth, especially with McGowan and Drabek potentially able to start at some point in the season.

    • McGowan is gonna be shit when he comes back!!!!! What a waste of money…. Fucking Rogers, but they finally seem to have their shit together.

    • To me, it is unlikely either one of these two ever pitch for the BJs again given their new desire, to you know, win games, and not just fritter them away on guys still learning how to pitch in MLB.
      I love Dustin’s determination and resolve etc but the real fact is he has never been real effective in MLB. Yes injuries have been a large part of that but so be it. Everyone remembers his near no-hitter against Colorado but, really, that is one of the few good games he ever pitched, so no, he cannot be counted on at all.
      As for Drabek , he is nearly a fukstik, and it is painfully obvious with his pitiful K/BB ratio and number of pitches he throws by the fifth inning in every start that he is not ready for MLB.
      Yes he, like a lot of guys, has a “great arm”, but he will be used as trade fodder in the future and someone else can work with the arm. Most prospects don’t work out, and I’m afraid he is one of them. It happens.
      I think down deep, AA knows he cannot count on these two, hence he must get what he calls rotational depth

      • McGowan had a good year in 2007 (holy shit that’s a long time ago) and is decent as the team’s 7th or 8th option. He was looking good last year too before yet another injury.

      • I think that Drabek is a guy who can benefit a huge amount from Buffalo. Better competition in a real league, without the pressure of being either a top prospect anymore or having to be the 6th starting option should, hopefully, allow him to actualize some of the potential he came up with. Hell, with the rotation the Jays have for next year and the talent in the pipeline a couple of years away, having Drabek become a legit 4-5/swingman is something I’d take at this point.

  12. First the Mathis trade, then the dog problem and now this. I gotta go to Mexico, not drink the water and think about this. Adiós Bobby que eran los mejores.

  13. Just wondering if they couldn’t or maybe shouldn’t trade either JP or D’Arnaud for another pitcher. Don’t they have enough hitting already!?

  14. I love this new “thinned system” meme that has emerged. Newman put it best – “they traded parts, not key pieces”

    • True but Marisnick and Nicolino would be a lot more hyped up in other orgs not Texas or st. Loooo

    • That doesn’t mean the system isn’t thinned out after the trade, or that it wouldn’t take a significant hit if more pieces were dealt.

      I guess it all comes down to semantics, but I’d say, pretty unequivocally, the system is thinner now than a month ago. Quite obviously.

  15. This is good for Jays fans that the team is loOking to go into the season with two starting quality catchers. Like we can expect both of them to stay healthy. I just hope they aren’t injured at the same time!

    The team has depth at SS C and CF. just need to round out the pitching.

  16. You know what I liked about Bobby Wilson? One word: everything.

  17. You guys are missing the obvious in my opinion. Anthopolous has been using every minute since he claimed Wilson to try and make a big deal for Arencibia. It didn’t happen so Wilson walks. I’m sure that AA will pick someone up soon that gives him similar options.

  18. Enough already with Wilson and the comaparatives of 2 back-up catchers. AA needs a certified #1 starting catcher, and there are some FA’s out there – Barajas, Jose Molina are available. AA will have to eat some of Buck’s salary to move him or give up a prospect, but we need to do it to win

    • Seriously? Barajas or Molina? Really?
      I’d take JPA over either.

      • Long time no see Paul. So here’s what I see. AA is wanting to build a winner (not the AL Division but WS), his legacy will be built on this team. This team is still wanting up the middle. Catching is the priority, and JPA & Buck will not take AA, me or you to the promosed land. We are close, but an undisputable #1 catcher must be had to start the season.
        This point gets fucked up with naming guys, as the focus shifts away from the need, to the guy who you name (like when I named Molina) Give me a solid #1 catcher and the WS is within view. Leave me with what we have now and we can say how great it was to win the East but boy, how can anyone beat the Tigers or Rangers.

      • Oh but according to maddon, molina saved 55+ defensive runs.

  19. what about mark reynolds as a possible platoon partner for ole lindy? am i crazy for thinking that might work?

  20. The Jays could still trade him and have some sort of catcher mixed in a package coming back to Toronto and Move Buck to starter, something he is more then capable of handling. But I still stand by what I say, that the Jays don’t need anymore Starters although in a Kinda
    contradictory way, it would be nice to see Dempster in a Jays uniform.

    • Dempster apparently turned down a two year deal worth $26M from Kansas City, which means he is entertaining better offers at the moment, like a three year deal?

      I doubt AA wants to committ those dollars and those terms to a 35 year old?

      I would kick the tires on guys like Karstens, to see if they are willing to go one year. When healthy, he provides Villanueva type production.

      But I get the gist of what you are saying. We need more pitching. But so does everyone else.

  21. Just remember people, AA is working on something all he time. If he doesn’t like it, he won’t do it. When the time is right, it’ll be done. You know he’ll tweak a little more, but you just don’t know the when, the who and with what team. You might like the upcoming move(s) or hate the move(s), but rest assured, it’ll be talked about. And there’s still 4 months to go for tweaking.

    • This. He could blow us put of the water with a move next week or next month there’s still plenty of offseason left

      • Absolutely

        Winter Meetings havent even started and already some unexpected moves, like R Mart to the Bucs, the Span trade, and the Royals trying to kick the tires on everybody.

        Once a few more dominoes fall, especially a couple more big signings like the Upton one, it will open up a whole new world of opportunities for all GM’s, including AA, to reconfigure the marketplace. And for the most part, all of the trade chips AA has will only go up in price the longer he waits

  22. Davis, Arencibia and even Buck would be OK to platoon with Lind. With Jonny Gomes gone, there aren’t many better options than that. They might carry an 8 man pen, so as to not to maintain depth and not lose guys that are out of options. I actually think that might be wise. Buck, Davis, Bonifacio make up for a good enough bench. They could also carry Cooper on the bench, but being that they’re in the AL and that he wouldn’t really pinch hit for anyone, except maybe Izturis.

    • Sierra had an OPS north of .800 against LHP in something like 60 PA’s in 2012. He is another option, and is a better defender than most other platoon options.

      Against a tough lefty, why not have a lineup of:

      C-JPA or Buck

      Bench: Bonifacio, Rasmus, Lind.

      Gives a day off for Bautista. Or you can move around players in the DH spot, like EE and have Bautista play some 1B,

      Keeps your lefty bats on the bench. Available for pinch hitting later.

      • Good points. We already have decent platoon options. It would be nice to pick up another decent starter though. An upgrade over Happ would be great, but we can’t forget about Romero as well. He’ll have a long leash, but you still have plan in case he struggles for a few months.

      • I am big on Sierra too, but….. thats a pretty small sample size dude.

      • Thinking they might want Sierra to play every day and see what they’ve got. Maybe he can learn to catch fly balls in day games. Former first round pick Brandon Snyder was not tendered by Texas (lost his job to Mike Olt) He’d be a cheap option to platoon with Lind, and he could field the position as well. He’s only 25 and has some up side. Not as sexy as Morse or Ludwig; but not as expensive either.

        • They do want Sierra to play every day… in Buffalo.

          Outfield’s kinda full. Jose isn’t getting asked to move to DH.

          • Exactly. Should have put “in Buffalo” in the post. Thought the intent was clear, but I guess not.

          • Jose will be DH versus lefties I think…to keep Lind out of the lineup. They may rotate a few guys through DH v LHP to rest them / sit Lind.

      • pretty sure Davis’ is regarded as a sub-par defensive CFer.

      • I like that lineup very much, but I think Sierra would actually bat higher than JP.

  23. I’m not sure why JPA needs to be traded so fast. There’s a trade deadline in July and you can safely bet that more than one team in the hunt is gonna need a catcher and may overpay for same. And you can also safely bet that if we are chasing a playoff spot there will be something we are gonna need as well. Put JPA away in the safety-deposit and let him accrue some interest.

    • +1 JPA’s value might jump a notch or two if he has a good first half in 2013. And if TDA is busting down walls in Buffalo, then maybe at some point, a decision would be made to move JPA or Buck.

      Interesting that TDA had reps at 1B last season in AAA. One wonders if the Jays are worried about his durability at C. Very doubtful that TDA’s bat plays at 1B, but it could play in a platoon situation with Lind and EE for next year. Easing TDA with some AB’s at 1B, DH and at C over the course of 2013 would make sense.

    • He doesn’t have to be traded so fast, it just may be the smarter thing for the club to use him to get a pitcher now, rather than later. They don’t have a lot of depth there, and they have a similarly skilled guy in Buck, and a better guy in d’Arnaud almost ready.

  24. What will jays do without Bobby Wilson? Always next year.

  25. Roster spot is open for a reason…we’ll know this time next week.

  26. Brandon McCarthy please. Just for the jokes, and his wife.

  27. Stoet.. It always brings a smile t my face when you have to post on a Saturday.

  28. Sign me up for AJ Pierzynski on a 2-year deal with an option. Before you start throwing things, hear me out.

    The man mashes right-handed pitching because he is the all too rare left-handed hitting catcher. He’s an absolutely awful defender according to the recent rankings by Matt Klaasen (IIRC) which makes me a little more hesitant. But after two years of JPA behind the plate, I think I’m used to passed balls.

    Acquiring him would allow the Jays to move JPA who’s got much more value on the market than John Buck who’s owed $6M. Start the season with Pierzynski/Buck working as a platoon. By midseason, the team would be able to trade Buck and the ~$3M he’d have left on his deal and bring up a healthy, fully ready Travis d’Arnaud.

    There are questions about d’Arnaud because of his lack of plate discipline which could expose him early in his career. Having a platoon partner and power partner in AJ Pierzynski would go a long way to shielding d’Arnaud from the toughest right-handed pitching and give the Jays a high-quality bench bat. By the time, Pierzynski’s done his contract, he should have been supplanted by d’Arnaud full-time and would become expendable in the 2014 season.

    Teams want to pay Pierzynski as a full-time catcher, but he’s not nearly as talented or valuable as Russell Martin who got two years, $17M. He’s more likely going to get in the $6-7M per range based on his HR outburst in 2012. If he were given a choice between the low end of that range for the Jays or the high end with a non-competitive team then maybe he’d actually choose the Jays. He was rumoured to be headed here in 2010 in the wake of a stinker season. It’s most likely a pipe dream because the Dodgers are rumoured to be sniffing around him even though they have a much better option with incumbent AJ Ellis. Still, despite being a POS human being, Pierzynski would make a hell of an addition to the team.

    • I don’t this makes any sense.

      • AJ is an asshole, Gibby will knock him out within a week’s time

        and yea, makes no sense to go after a catcher

        • Where else do you improve the position players? At 1B/DH? Full-timers at those positions will be expensive. Lind is getting paid $5M in 2013 and could not be moved without eating his salary/chipping in a prospect.

          Yes, there’s already catchers under contract/control but they are not very good and could not be platooned with d’Arnaud to take advantage of his splits. Arencibia has upside and can be traded for starting pitching.

          Buck/d’Arnaud to start 2013 would be a risky proposition in my mind considering d’Arnaud’s youth and 84 game a year average over the last 3 years. Buck’s fallen off a cliff offensively in the last 2 years and there’s no guarantee that a return to the Rogers Centre will see his numbers improve.

    • It was too late. I started throwing things after your first sentence.

  29. This may be crazy talk, but to delay this “who’s your starting C” conversation a year or 2, do the Jays look to move TDA for another highly touted C prospect who might be further away, and some potential later season rotation help. I’m thinking something along the lines of a TDA/Syndergaard to Seattle for Zunino/Walker-or-Hultzen? Seattle seems to want close to if not league ready guys (according to reports anyway), which TDA is, while Zunino should need another year and a half to 2 yrs at AA-AAA. It allows us to get a better look at JPA and see if he can take further strides forward this season too. Meanwhile Walker or Hultzen are both high-end SPs that would help in late-2013 or 2014 as opposed to Syndergaard’s 2015 projection. Or does nobody care about this because it’s just prospects and nobody’s proven a damned thing yet…

  30. One potentially undervalued platoon partner for Adam Lind is Andruw Jones.

    2010: 256/373/558 vs LHP
    2011: 286/384/540 vs LHP

    2012 was only 202/294/411 vs lefties, but that included an absolutely brutal August & September.

    He had an overall .784 OPS on August 1 and supposedly had a hand injury down the stretch which put his numbers in the shitter.

    He can probably be had for $1 million or less and certainly has the potential to be very valuable in 250 PAs or so.

    FWIW he has been worth 3.5 WAR in a little over 800 PAs over the last year while facing a lot of LHP.

  31. Scott Kazmir anyone?

    People keep saying Rays could trade David Price but I think they only say that now because he just won a Cy Young and expect his value to be at his highest ever. Jays have the right pieces for a Price trade, but I think it will be pretty costly

    I think Dempster will end up being overpaid somewhere – gotta wait for Angels, Rangers and Dodgers to make a few more moves first before we see what pitchers will be expecting in years and money

    • Kazmir is pretty much done. Last reports had him throwing in the mid to high 80′s with his FB. Even when he was throwing gas, he could barely command his FB.

      I would pass.

      • can’t believe that Kazmir hasn’t put together a good season since 2008

      • He’s pitching in winter ball this year and supposedly attracting interest from teams. Possible he might have got some of his stuff back. However, I wouldn’t give him more than a minor league deal at this point personally. That said, we’ve seen a lot of guys that have been out of baseball for a while or those that struggled for a couple of years and they ended up bouncing back quite nicely so you never know.

  32. Fuck another SP, we need an everyday 1B (Fuck Lind altogether) and WE WANT TRAVIS sooner than later, dump Buck for a bucket of balls.

  33. Love to see AA take a chance at Jair Juurgens…

    • And Brian Wilson.

      • Brian WIlson does NOT fit the profile set about by AA.

        No member of the bullpen makes more then $5 million per year, Wilson can make no less than $6.8 million based on his salary last year and the fact that it can’t be 20% less than last years salary.

        The bullpen on this team is made up of young, cheap, controllable, hard throwers with swing and miss type stuff. And Brian Wilson doesn’t meet the criteria.

        The pipe dream needs to stop, the Facebook page of DJF comments got retarded about it earlier. Give me a fucking break.

        Anyone with half a fucking brain can plainly see high priced bullpen help isn’t on the menu this offseason, nor should it be.

        • He’s a free agent now. Of course he can make less than that. If he went to arbitration with the Giants then that rule applies. That’s why he was non-tendered in the first place.

          That said, I’d be totally shocked if AA signed someone like him. Wouldn’t surprise me if the Dodgers grab him.

          • Right, thanks for the correction on the salary bit nm…

            You get the idea…he isn’t a fit and likely will make north of 6.8, given whats being thrown around to the likes of Brandon League and Jeremy Affeldt.

      • No to Brian Wilson. TJ #2, 30 yrs old, weird fuck that wouldn’t fit this team.

  34. I think release was inevitable the moment AA realized he had signed Bobby Wilson the catcher, not Bobby Wilson the guy who trolled Albert Pujols for signing with the Angel’s had his name posted all over the internet, and then got counter trolled on his facebook last year. Those shenanigans got me through a brutally slow news day.

  35. I was curious about the Miami perspective of the big deal, so I listened to a couple Miami sports radio shows on podcast.

    Check out the interviews with David Samson (Marlins pres) on the Dan LeBatard Show since the trade:


    There’s been about 2 or 3 since the 13th. You’ll never complain about Beeston again.

    They asked Samson ‘what would your ownership prefer? Winning 80 games, not being in the playoffs, and making money – or winning 100 games, making the playoffs, and losing money.’ Samson says ‘How about winning 90 and breaking even.’

    Imagine that was Rogers’ stance a year after getting a new publicly funded stadium? Wow.

  36. Man I want Brian Wilson on the team so bad. I fear if he goes to the Red Sox or Dodgers I won’t be able to like him anymore.

    Just cant see a way AA makes it happen – they won’t trade Santos. They could trade Janssen but that would be pretty stupid. If Olliver doesnt come back, they could technically move Santos and Janssen down into set up roles for Wilson. Janssen would be back in a role he’s used to, although he played his way into closer. Santos would be similar situation, another guy who had one great year as a closer but other than his peripherals doesn’t have a longterm experience or numbers to back it up.

    I’ve forgot about Santos a bit but I take it he doesn’t have the potential to be a Chris Sale and turn into a SP right?

    • Pretty sure it’s not going to happen. The money needs to be spent on starter depth without question. There’s still plenty of arms and more on the way that can fill the pen if needed from internal sources.

  37. I imagine that AA does everything for a reason but I was wondering why he exposed McDade and then non-tendered Bobby Wilson. If there was never any serious intention of keeping Wilson then why risk losing a switch-hitting first baseman?

    Now the answer could be that McDade doesn’t project as a major league player but, even so, the minor league teams need to fill out their rosters. Was he holding someone back? Did AA simply need to open a spot up on the 40-man in case an opportunity presents itself this week?

    Another puzzler- to me- is why everyone believes that J.A. Happ is the pitcher on the bubble. Why Happ and not Romero? With the exception of the small sample size offered up by Santos there can’t be too many pitchers in either league who gave up more home runs and walks than made strike outs. Home runs allowed + walks > strikeouts. Ugh.

    Finally… the best argument in favor of keeping Lind is Aaron Hill. Probably the best argument against keeping him is Lyle Overbay. Hill rebounded impressively while Overbay never had much to rebound back to.

  38. Ok ranking Catchers on their ERA as follows:
    1 Ryan Hanigan CIN 3.05
    2 A.J. Ellis LAD 3.33
    3 Brian McCann ATL 3.35
    4 Buster Posey SF 3.52
    5 Kurt Suzuki OAK/WSH 3.54
    6 Alex Avila DET 3.61
    7 Yadier Molina STL 3.61
    8 Matt Wieters BAL 3.8
    9 Miguel Montero ARI 3.89
    10 Russell Martin NYY 4.07
    42 Buck 3.9
    86 4.79

    • So Stoet: rankings a little fucked up as Buck and JPA (he is the 86th raked 4.79 number) (my fault) didn’t qualify in innings. JPA and Buck are ranked in non-qualifiers category. But putried numbers for JPA and Buck, I’ve long waited to say this, has a sample size too small to draw from. Ge me a # 1 catcher please

      • Fucked up again Cnclusion JPA is putrid, Buck sample size too small. Get me a #1 catcher, win WS.

        • Hey Birddawg did you notice that most of the catchers in the top 10 made the playoffs last year? And Buster Posey won the WS with SF? Keep up the good work

          • That doesn’t have anything to do with the pitching staffs they were working with at all.

            The Nationals incredible starting rotation can be safely attributed to Kurt Suzuki’s #1 catcher status.

          • Maybe because they all played for really good teams?

      • birddawg, you really don’t see how the guys on the top of that list play for teams with really good pitchers?

        Sorry, catcher ERA doesn’t tell us enough about the catcher to be meaningful in the slightest– far too much to do with the pitchers involved.

        • That’s almost as good as judging the pitching and hitting coaches strictly on the team results.

        • No shit

        • Fer fuck sakes of course good pitching staffs make it to the post season, and thay are accompanied by good catchers. Put a top flight pitcher with a losusey catcher and guess what happens? The pitcher gets preoccupied with the poor signal calling, the jumping around, the late set ups of the jack ass he’s pitching too and BANG there goes another one outta the park!
          I promise you the JPA will be gone by the start of the season, or we won’t make the playoffs. Damn straight

          • I can’t belive that anyone here would think that the BJ’s have invested all this capital into one of the best rotations in baseball and them with the 86th ranked ERA catcher in the league. What kind of loonacy prevails here? If you disagree with me, because its me fine, but fuck fella’s please you have to make a change at catcher – its painfully obvious

    • Ranking catchers with CERA is fucked up and too variable at best

      • Way too many variables TomW.

        Take a couple years ago, for example, when Molina exclusively caught Morrow, how could his stats be compared to his teammates? It makes no sense, the other guy caught the other 4 pitchers, none with the same type of skillset.

        And then, what about the other splits…home vs road, day vs night, and on and on and on.

        Way too many variables for sure.

    • I am not sold on these stats. How much can be said that its the catcher, not the pitching staff. These teams all had great staffs. What does a list like this prove?

      Where is the link to this article/list? Id love to learn more

  39. ON mLB last night they were talking about the winter meetings from a NYM point of view and their need for a CF and a catcher. They were actually suggesting that Davis would be an acceptable CF for the amazins ( tee hee) and that they should look at either JPA or Buck. They did not have a strong recommendation of what should come this way although in addition to the names floated around in these parts, AA also did mention that he always liked Bobby Parnell ( throws 98mph) although he has never fully put it together inthe bullpen. I still think their maybe something brewing with the NYM, it just won’t be Dickey as we already have a Johnson.

  40. Rosenthal on Jays looking at pitchers:


    Seems to think the Jays are more likely to add a low end guy as insurance for the rotation rather than an upgrade on Happ.

    • I honestly don’t have a problem with that. Get some quality lower end stuff for depth but keep grinding for a good deal…if one pops great. I gotta say having AAA in Buffalo is huge for this team and its chances at weathering a storm during the season.

    • Im not blowing my load over Wade Davis. IF I am talking to the Rays about trading JPA, I feel like Davis isnt enough. Maybe thats just me. I don’t think he is any sort of upgrade over Happ, thats for sure.

      Id be right down with Niese though. Giddy the fuck up.

      Kenny Ken Ken didn’t really tell us anything we already didn’t know here…barring something falling into his lap, I believe we will only see minor rotation depth moves from here on out. But hey, wtf do I know.

      • ..and that is the perception that has been put out there. I have a feeling (based on sweet fuck all) Happ will shine this year if things are left as is. Just need some depth and a little faith in trade deadlines.

        • I liked what I saw from Happ late in the year as well and also believe people are underestimating him.

          AA has liked him for way too long to spend all those prospects and not believe in him or know/see something that we don’t.

  41. lol Rajai as a valuable CF’er – shit if the Mets actually believe that get on that ASAP – too bad Duda hurt himself, could have made a play for Magic Ike

  42. People that are advocating keeping JPA are overlooking the fact that he is going to make the minimum this year. This is his last pre-arb year. He’s probably looking at $2 million plus in 2014, and increases up to 6 or 7 million by his last arb year. On the trade market it’s his 2013 season that is hugely valuable. Paying a guy $480,000 or whatever for a full season of a starting catcher is fantastic value. Trading him later basically chops off the biggest thing that gives him value. Once his arb years come up, his value quickly depreciates. For an asset management perspective, it’s a huge squandering of value to wait till the trade deadline or next offseason to trade him when you could just trade him now and have 2013 at the minimum as the carrot to dangle to interested teams.

    • This. Bang on fella.

    • I’m pretty damn sure AA has him out there and knows his worth. Fuck forget stats, I want him gone just because he was arrogant enough to tweet he is going nowhere. Just joking but fuck, talk about poking a very confidant Ninja tiger in the gut.

  43. Pat Tabler would blow his load if Jays made a JPA for Wade Davis trade – everytime he pitches against Jays he jizzes over Wade’s big, strong physique, lol!

    I think I’d make a trade for either of those – Niese is preferred as he’s locked up longer, a year younger, but Davis has the better track record and probably would come cheaper i.e. not having to add another piece – both teams are pretty much set up perfectly in terms of needing a catcher and not having too much money to spend on one

    • Yup trade would make senses rays and mets desperate for catching help

      • I don’t think the Rays can be considered desperate for catching help, they did just fine with Jose Molina their #1 last year. ANd by just fine, I mean nearly made the playoffs. And there are studies showing he saved a shit tonne of runs for them last year.

        Friedman will not overpay for a catcher, IMO.

        I don’t believe dealing within the division in this situation would help AA’s leverage to get maximum value for JPA.

        • As of today, MLB depth charts shows the Rays with an outfield of Fuld-Jennings-Joyce. Every day players include Sean Rodriguez (2B) Stephen Vogt (1B) and Brandon Guyer at DH. Very much agree that catching is not their number one priority at the moment. psst, Hey Andrew, that Lind guy over in Toronto in available….

  44. I say good riddance to JPuss he is a phony like MJ. If we can get another pitcher, HOLLA. Anotha thing doe, he lives in da Tampa area, he wont care.

  45. Wouldn’t surprise me to see nothing gets done with the catching situation until more of the free agents sign first. Could also see the same thing happen with center field until Pagan, Bourne and Victorino sign. At least the Jays have a lot of depth there too. I just hope AA doesn’t sit around waiting on that happening before making a move on someone like McCarthy or Haren.

    Would love to see him sign one of those guys right off the bat followed up by a depth move. Then he would have the luxury of letting teams come to him.

    As for guys like Wade Davis, pass. I’m not a huge fan of inter-divisional trades unless one of the teams is heading into a rebuild mode and won’t be serious competition for a couple of years.

    Also if he were to get someone like McCarthy or Haren now I’d have no problem in sitting back and waiting until the All-Star break before making another move. IMO there would be a better chance of JPA/Buck/d’Arnuad and Rasmus/Gose improving their worth by then. If there was no improvement they’d be worth a bit less, but not by that much.

  46. Would people want Soriano if he makes about the same as Gomes did with his Boston deal (pending the Cubs eating a good chunk of his salary)?

    Hits lefties well enough to platoon with Lind, can play the OF, opens up the option to move an OF’er down the road should they find a good trade

  47. Id like to go back in time and erase metrics stats from existence

  48. Trading JPA for Wade Davis is stupid as all hell and anyone that advocates anything of the sort is just an idiot. Seriously? Wade Davis straight up for JPA? The Jays would be taken to federal pound me in the ass prison on that deal. Youre talking about trading a young team controllable power hitting catcher to a division rival in exchange for a guy that as a starter is not much better than Happ. Its just completely retarded. The rays would have to do better than Davis for that trade to work out.

    As for Niese, I am still not ok with a straight exchange here. There would have to be more coming over in the deal, not much more but more, even a prospect etc. Niese is a solid #3 at best but honestly, I feel like Happ would be just as good.

    To all you people talking about trading Buck or JPA now… it’s not going to happen. Buck’s salary is high and value is low, no chance he gets moved. he’s going to catch Buerhle and Johnson for a while and he’s going to need to establish value.

    TDA IS NOT READY,, not sure why that information isnt sinking in for so many people. He hasnt proven he can stay healthy and he hasnt had a major league at bat. There’s virtually ZERO chance he gets the starting catching job on what is a really hyped up team now. Theyll ease him into things slowly. Unless youd rather have another ruined top prospect on account of being rushed and under pressure.

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  79. Third Flower…

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  80. Sehr geehrter Dr. Steinmann,
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    Wenn die Eltern einverstanden sind, kann man sich die Haare trotzdem weg lasern lassen?

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