Shi Davidi of Sportsnet checks in again from Nashville, speaking with Pat Gillick about the trick the man sitting in the chair he once held, Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos, pulled by making a 12-player deal with the Marlins.

More interestingly– or at least more rumour-mongeringly– at the end of the piece he indulges some of the speculation about the reported availability of the Mets’ RA Dickey.

I wrote during the GM meetings last month, the New York Mets will not do a 1-for-1 deal of Arencibia for left-hander Jon Niese, who is locked up through 2016 with options for ’17 and ’18. Dealing him forR.A. Dickey would be far more problematic since they’d be giving away four years of Arencibia, a 20-plus home run hitting catcher, for one of the Cy Young Award winner.

When the Blue Jays inquired about Josh Johnson and the price was set by the Marlins, Anthopoulos didn’t flinch but said the deal would need to be expanded.

One could expect the scenario to be the same for Dickey.

Now, read it again before you go off believing that Davidi is saying such talks are actually taking place– he’s not– but I think he’s probably right when he suggests that if there’s a match between the Jays and the Mets here, it will have to be in a bigger deal that what may seem obvious.

Tim Dierkes of MLBTR has it right, I think, when he passes along an Andy Martino tweet where it’s explained that “Fair or not, Dickey’s age and repertoire is making teams reluctant to give up significant talent for him.”

I understand the issue: four years of Arencibia is hardly nothing, especially since you could probably get a lesser pitcher for a little bit longer in exchange for him. But Dickey certainly would make a fantastic addition to the Jays rotation for 2013, and with the club suddenly going for it and committing major dollars to do so, there’s appeal to pushing their talent level that much farther over the top. Straight up for Arencibia, I’d do it– I think the difference between Dickey and Happ (and as a consequence, Happ over Chad Jenkins as the six) is much greater than the difference between Arencibia and some combination of Buck and a very green d’Arnaud.

But I understand why Anthopoulos might not– let alone some of the crazy scenarios I’ve seen proposed by fans suggesting they add a Rasmus, a Gose, or a prospect arm to the offer. No fucking way. Arencibia alone, in my book, is hardly a slam dunk.

So… there’s that.

Comments (141)

  1. i hope they don’t even consider dickey at all….

  2. The entire premise of this post was you could use that brilliant headline, eh?

  3. Doesn’t it change the equation if Dickey will sign an extension?

  4. Dickey’s been pretty good the last three years..

    2010: 11-9, 2.84 ERA, 174 IP, 1.1 WHIP, 2.2 B/9
    2011: 8-13, 3.28 ERA, 208 IP, 1.2 WHIP, 2.3 B/9
    2012: 20-6, 2.73 ERA, 233 IP, 1.0 WHIP, 2.1 B/9

    Even if he drops off a bit, he could still be a nice piece..

  5. Arencibia and Sierra for Dickey is about as far as I would go. Not that anyone cares.

    • Jays are going to have to throw in a pitching prospect also. Sean nolin maybe?

      • Nolin might turn out to be pretty good. He’s actually not that much different than Nicolino. With him being one of the few prospects that could help out this yearI’d hope we could keep him. Maybe if JP still likes Jenkins? He’s good filler but that’s about it.

  6. I’ve said it before but I think to get a John Niese or Derek Holland Rasmus would have to be included with JP. Is that something the Jays would do, I have no idea but I think that’s the price after seeing what Jeremy Guthrie signed for. Kudos to his agent getting the deal done quickly because that deal would not be available to Guthrie in January.

  7. Agree. Let some other team make a mistake on Dickey.

    • What mistake?

      The guy is a knuckle baller. He can pitch for another 5-10 years, realistically. Look at the comparable’s, Phil Neikro, Tom Wakefield….like seriously. Dickey is a young 38, if you ask me.

      • How long he pitches doesn’t even matter. It’s a one-year deal.

        • I guess I am presuming the Jays would want to keep around for longer than 1 year…

        • With an extension, it becomes a different deal IMO. Whether it’s fair or not, the market for a guy coming off a Cy Young season on a 1-year deal is going to be for much more than 4 years of JP Arencibia. The holes in his game are as apparent to the rest of baseball as they are to the Blue Jays.

          A deal without an extension would probably have to include Sean Nolin and a position player with upside like Chris Hawkins.

          With an extension, I think the cost would have to include a position player either in or close to the Majors i.e. Rasmus/Gose. Otherwise, the Mets should keep him and trade him to contender at the deadline.

          Zack Greinke brought the Brewers a nice package in July including the Angels’ best position prospect in Jean Segura and two pitching prospects. When you factor in the difference in salary, RA Dickey for a full year should be worth a lot more than that.

          • IF THEY INVOLVE ANYONE OF THOSE NAMES IN A TRADE FOR A 36 YEAR OLD PITCHER WHO WILL GET LIT UP BY THE AL EAST ALL DAY I WILL NO LONGER BE A JAYS FAN…. ARECEBIA FINE, BUT I PERSONALLY DON’T THINK THEY JAYS WOULD WANT DICKFACE FOR MORE THEN ONE YEAR, AL EAST EATS COUGARS…. YOU WILL SEE THAT VS ANDY PETITE ALL YEAR THIS YEAR. THE JAYS ARE YOUNG AND SPEEDY AND ANY MORE THEN ONE YEAR FOR A PITCHER WHOS CURRENTLY AT IS BEST BUT COULD END AT ANYTIME IS NOT WORTH IT

  8. I’ve decided I’m gonna focus my efforts towards scott hairston

  9. Make it bigger, add some prospects and bring back some IKE DAVIS.

    • Ike Davis’s dick is so big, it hit .360 in the minors until it blew it’s knee.

    • What the fuck is everyone’s infatuation with that guy?

      • Maybe it’s his big dick?

      • They’re just enamoured with his 32 HR’s last season and ignoring that he struck out almost as much as Kelly Johnson.

        • No, i realize he has serious flaws but he had a career .371 OBP in the minors to go with the power. He looked lost last year but it’s a classic buy low situation.

          He’s cheap and controlled until 2017. If he sucked in 13 then let him figure it out in Barfalo.
          We’d still have our putrid Lind/Rajai combo.
          Seems like a good gamble if he came cheap.

          • I’m not enamoured with the kid, it’s just if it as you guys have been saying “4 years of JPA is worth so much more then 1 year of DIckey” then maybe theres room to grab a young kid coming off a bad year who has upside and can be the answer at DH.

            • Prolly the fact he has a huge power ceiling considering 16.2 hr/pa was 9th in MLB last year, plus defender, left handed and under control till 2017…splits and k/BB aren’t pretty mind you…I’d take him over Lind x 1000

  10. So…there’s that.

    My new email signature.

  11. Think it’s a bad idea to give up too much for Dickey and I think Arencibia alone is too much. Don’t get me wrong, Dickey’s had a very nice three-year run, but he’s also 38 and came literally out of nowhere and could just as easily go *poof* in a hurry. Take away those three years as a Met and his career numbers are rather dreadful.

    I think the Jays can do better than Dickey, especially at the cost of someone like Arencibia.

    • You mean the three years where he reinvented himself as a knuckleballer, and finally mastered the pitch that takes a lifetime to master?

      You don’t say!

      • Dickey started with the knuckler in 2006. Took a few years for it all to gel, but still the point stands that he literally came out of nowhere and it’s just as easy for it to all go away with only so many years left as a pitcher.

        Don’t get me wrong, I think Dickey is a decent pitcher, but to give up Arencibia is too much in my books.

        • Again, like Jose Bautista did.

          The argument you’re making is far too simplistic now that we have this much data. Will he ever be the guy he was in 2012 again? I can’t say that, but even if he’s the guy from the two previous years, that’s more than fine.

          • I also think that Dickey could possibly be had for fewer prospects, and extended for fewer dollars than his stats warrant because he’s a knuckler.

            Bit of a gamble, but if you got 200 IP and an ERA between 3 – 3.5 that’s pretty fucking sweet. As long as it wasn’t for the farm, I’d love to see Dickey here.

            Johnson, Morrow, Dickey, Buerhle, Romero? Mann.

          • You’re right, there are never any guarantees in baseball, but I just feel that JPA alone is too much for Dickey. Think Niese is more attainable and he’s got long-term upside.

      • Thank you.

        • Hey guys, I’ll give you my [young controlled catcher with defensive question marks and 20 dingers a year] for your [reigning cy young winning starter]

          “think niese is more attainable”
          Based on what? They’re talking about trading Dickey. They’re not discussing Niese.

  12. I cant believe no one wants me!

  13. I was lost at the point where it was wrote that 4 years of JPA is hardly nothing. Count in pitch framing and it’s less than nothing

    • Hah yeah Arencibia + 2 bucks could get you a coffee from Tim Hortons but Arencibia doesn’t get a Dickey.

  14. Dickey is old for a pitcher but not really old for a knuckleballer who can also throw standard pitches effectively. I would venture to bet AA would expand the deal if others made sense

  15. You say Dickey won’t come alone and then conclude with Arencibia for Dickey is all you’d do. Uhh so what other pieces with Dickey could come here and why didn’t you mention that?

  16. the Mets fans are overly unrealistic about what Dickey will bring…..they all seem to think is starts with d’arnaurd…which is laughable

    I laughed anyway…

    I’d really have to think about a straight JP for Dickey swap…might do that…probably would.

  17. Considering Alderson has said that he wants a “difference maker” in return for Dickey, I’m not sure why we’re even talking about Arencibia.

    • What else is he going to say?
      When I walk into a bar I want Kate Upton but usually settle for something that looks more like BJ Upton.

      • Honesty is vastly over-rated Smasher.

        It’s going to be a while before I lose that particular image of you and Lady Luck.

  18. If AA’s past tells us anything, its that if a trade option looks like obvious then it won’t happen. Ninjas don’t perform like that

    • Sometimes, a ninja will. It all depends on what’s expected. I knew a ninja, he once hid in plain view; pretending to be a rock in the middle of the road. He wore a bright blue plaid vest and cowboy boots and crouched down with his arms over his head. The security guard walked up to him and asked him what he was doing, the ninja answered ” I was pretending to pretend that I was a rock”. The security guard asked him “why?” My friend, the ninja answered: “so that you would come over and ask me what I was doing”. The guard asked again: “why?”. The ninja answered :”so that I can kill you”. And so he did.
      Bring on RA Dickey. I’m so stoked.

  19. I wonder if anyone would ever wear a jersey with Dickey on the back…except for Dickey?

    • I read once that Rudy Gay’s jersey doesn’t sell well, but I think this is different.

  20. Jays get Dickey, Mets get dick all.

    My headline should a straight up trade for Arencibia happen.

  21. Why do so many fans want to drop Arencibia when he’s due to come into his prime and we have no proven options behind him? I don’t get it.

    • because apparently AAA numbers mean the world. thus because TDA did better at AAA at x age then JPA. even though under that same example Jays RF should be Corey Patterson and not Bautista…… (in reference to Patterson’s former #1 BBA prospect and former jay player).

    • Last time I checked, 2 catchers aren’t allowed on the field at once. Trading from a position of depth is considered to be pretty common practice.

      • Is there really depth though? John Buck is a backup at best, and probably wouldn’t bat the Mendoza line if given a full year.

        Moving JPA would suggest to me the organization thinks D’Arnaud is ready to take the lion’s share of AB’s at catcher. D’Arnaud looks good/great in his past year between AA/AAA, but the guy hasn’t taken a single AB in the bigs yet.

        If he doesn’t pan out when he gets his shot at the bigs, JPA would be the only thing keeping the #9 spot in the batting order from resembling that of an NL club.

        • I think Dumpy said it well below….Arencibia’s performance is not hard to replace. He’s got some pop (like Buck), but he’s a pretty terrible hitter otherwise. Nothing to write home about on defense either.

          So, I don’t really see the dropoff you are afraid of. Perhaps you really believe that JP will develop into a great catcher/hitter – which could happen…but not much in his 2 years so far suggests that he’s going to develop the all-around game of an all-star catcher.

          • you mean JPA’s first 2 years in the bigs? He’s improved in every facet of the game two years running. Having said that, I’d trade him to get Dickey.

    • @JM, Buck and D’arnaud is hardly nothing behind JPA. JPA is a league average\below average catcher with power. So is John Buck, who left the confines of Marlins stadium for a place he had a career year. JPA has set the bar so low that TD or Buck can match it or do slightly worse and not effect the team. Both of them are better on D than JPA. So when it comes down to it. You have a “potential” 2 War catcher and that’s a big stretch in JPA as the centerpiece for a potential 6 win pitcher, that if he regresses is still 3x more valuable than JPA.

      That’s why everyone want’s to trade a catcher that in his prime is at best a backup for a former cy young 3-6 war pitcher.

      • @Dumpy: Yeah, I guess that makes sense. I still think it’s a high risk proposition until D’Arnaud proves himself somewhat at the big league level.

        What if Travis comes up and struggles at first and needs time to develop? The whole situation post-JPA would make me uneasy if they moved him now.

        • @JM Buck is there to help. He isn’t much worse then JPA and is the definition of a stop gap (except for the money!)

  22. There used to be two cricketers called Holding and Willie. Leading to the immortal commentary ‘The batter’s Holding; the bowler’s Willie’.

  23. Dickey, Buehrle, and Johnson combined to chuck 627.1 innings in 2012. That’s 40% of our 2013 innings, including a sweep of the playoffs!

  24. If the Jays make a deal w/ the Mets, it’ll be for Niese, not Dickey. And honestly, I think that’s the far better play.

  25. I fail to understand why people think that Dickey would command way way less than any other of the top 10 pitchers in baseball on one year deals have for trades.

    There’s no reason the Mets should trade him for less than the packages that went for Lee, Halladay, CC, or Santana have.

    I don’t suggest that the Mets can get the same package as those guys brought back, because he won’t command quite as much as those simply based on age and profile, but to suggest that Arencibia and a top 50 prospect is an overpay seems pretty crazy and doesn’t really jive with what the actual consensus around baseball is to JPA’s value.

    • Agreed completely….Mets would just hold on to him rather than get a less than stellar package for him. They may not get it, but they are certainly not regarding JP as a “difference maker” to compensate for losing their Cy Young award winner!

      • I think it really depends who comes calling and what they come with. If the only thing close to a “difference maker” that get’s offered is JPA and a prospect\prospects they may still do it. If the market remains cold on a 38 year old knuckler does it make the Mets take it? There are are still question marks on Dickey, but landing Dickey or Neise is nothing to sneeze at. They both have 3-5 war potential. I dpnt think JPA and Sierra with someone like Nolin gets it done, but who knows.

  26. Arencibia for Dickey.. This has be torn in two pieces. One side of me says that we should not do it because catchers that can hit for power are rare, and the other side of me says that aquiring a cy young winner would push the blue jays to real contenders. Dickey is old and we dont know how his body will hold up, however, if we get 2-3 good years of him and TDA turns into what we all think hes going to be which is a superstar, then this trade will be worth it. If TDA ends up being a bust like Mcgowan, drabek, snider, etc…. This deal might not be as great for the jays.

  27. phillies running out of centre field options, rasmus in play????

  28. Grab Dickey…?? Too easy Stoet!

  29. So apparently the Mets have asked the Red Sox for Bogaerts and Bradley for Dickey. I could be wrong, but this would roughly translate to D’Arnaud and Gose. Still think Arencibia could get it done?

    • Red Sox will tell them to go fuck themselves in short order.

      • That’s for sure. But if this is where the Mets are starting, I can’t see them getting anything done that resembles “Dickey for JPA”.

    • Hardly.

      D’Arnaud & Gose are both far and away better/higher-rated prospects that Bogaerts and Bradley.

      There’s no way they’ll get that package though, ridiculous asking price.

      • They’ll probably counter with Saltalamachia and a scrub now that they have Napoli and Lavarnaway to catch.

        Come to think of it with their history with Wakefield Boston is probably the favorite to land Dickey.

        I disagree with your assement of the prospects. D’arnaud is probably the best of the four but even though I love Gose I’d take Boegarts and Bradley over him in a heartbeat. And from what I’ve read about them I think most scouts would too.

        • Where would Bogaerts play? He’s simply not a longerm solution at SS.

          He’ll probably end up around 6’3 and 190+lbs by the time he fills out.

          • Who cares, they didn’t know where Miguel Cabrera would play either when he was coming up. It’s all about the stick.

  30. i think that the jays should go for the title in 2013…put in all your chips, sell the farm. i would rather have one world series win, then a bunch of years in the playoffs.

  31. Saying that Dickey is clearly better than Happ isn’t fair to Dickey. He has been clearly better than every blue jay pitcher since 2010. If they traded for him I would be shocked if he wasn’t the opening day starter. Some people are heavily underestimating the guy.

    No one would want to come to Toronto and face Dickey one day then Morrow the next. Knuckleballers are a bitch to adjust too. Dickey is good for 200+ innings and is a one of a kind rarity that would be a good secret weapon for the Jays. He can throw 60mph or 80mph knuckleballs, plus he uses fastballs and a changeup if he needs to (unlike Wakefield).

    Sure wakefield doesn’t have 10 years of baseball left in him like Price, but if the Jays want a guy that can put together an ace type season in 2013, and probably a couple of years beyond too, then Dickey is by far the cheapest option on the market. If AA does land Dickey he will be an immediate fan favourite and I bet everyone who is skeptical in this thread won’t be upset they got him after the 2013 season.

  32. I would love to see Dickey on the Jays, but I don’t see it happening for a couple of reasons. Firstly, pitying is the hottest commodity right now, and we are talking about a Cy Young winner! Even if he’s a geezer, he must still be tremendously alluring.

    Also, I wonder how eager Ricciardi is to deal with AA. Getting burned by your former assistant is something I can see JP trying to avoid

  33. JPA plus a C prospect on contingent that Dickey is willing to sing an extension for 3 years. 3 years 40 to 45 million should do it. Sure Dickey might not be the safest play, but us DJF followers are so used to the value arguments from all of our rebuilding/ shit years that we forget it’s about taking risks at this point. It’s like poker. We’ve already committed the majority of our stack, why the fuck would you leave 10% of your chips left, just push em all in, who the fuck cares if it’s an over bet, we’re in, we have to win the hand or its over (rebuild/rebuy), and Dickey has the best possible value of ANY pitcher we could realistically get in trade or FA not named Greinke (and no i don’t think Price is realistic for the jays as it’s within division)

  34. If TDA suffered a major injury tomorrow, I’d still have zero qualms about trading JPA and a couple of B assets for Dickey.

    Time to dump JPA before his career as a backup catcher is confirmed.

  35. I’m a little surprised there hasn’t been much more written about people going after masterson.
    I’m a huge fan, he always shuts us down, the indians have no plan of contending, I’d love to have him on the team.

  36. If we knew Black Magic was coming back I’d throw in Sierra and Cecil for Dickey with JPA, if we get a decent 2 year extension with a couple option years on Dickey just in case he is still befuddling hitters when he is 41-42. Cecil, another JPR pick looked very good out of the pen in Sept. Frankly, i’d rather extend Dickey than JJ as I believe him to be less of an injury risk. With bionic Hutch coming back in 2014 there won’t be room for everyone and JJ should easily bring back a sandwich pick.

    Everyone seems to worry about Dickey being a fluke. That’s possible, but it’s also possible he gets even BETTER!!! Also, can you imagine being a batter facing Dickey for 3 AB’s then Jeffress comes in throwing 100mph! Lots of great hitters used to ask out of the lineup when the Niekro’s pitched because they screwed up their swing. Anecdotal, yes, but I think worth a try to sandwich Dickey between JJ and Morrow and put a bunch of AL East mashers into slumps.

    And yes, i realize I typed sandwich twice into this post as I’m ready for din din.

    • Flukes simply cannot happen for 600+ innings. Also Cy Youngs don’t exactly happen by chance either.

  37. I used to mock trade proposals I’d see in the comments, but after the Florida swap, nothing surprises me now.

  38. As AA just said, only major acquistions to come through trade, depth moves via free agency

  39. The fact that the Red Sox have shown some interest in Dickey is bad news too. If they snag Dickey and add a few free agents then they are all of a sudden a team that is going to win games in the AL east.

  40. Has anybody looked into how he pitches in domed parks?

    • Last year fairly well, but not beyond that. You’d hope that they wouldn’t close the roof in September when he pitches here (in this hypothetical) assuming the theory that cold weather is the knuckleballers best friend.

      The skydome is such a furnace with the roof shut that you’d have doubts about his value.

  41. When I first read the article I was like, of course he wants to bring two balls with him

  42. Don’t waste time on Dickey, he had a big season, but there’s no evidence to suggest he’ll do it again. AA will pull something out of his rotund ass that we don’t see coming.

    http://pregamesheiza.wordpress.com/

  43. Report: Dickey asking price is two B level pitching prospects and a solid position player

  44. Why not just bring back Luis Leal? Problem solved.

  45. What about this:

    Dickey + Niese = Arencibia + Gose + Romero + Happ

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