Deep Dickey-ing

Turns out the rumours about the Jays’ interest in Mets Cy Young winner RA Dickey aren’t going anywhere anytime soon– and probably not until the Mets make a move, one way or the other.

Fortunately for us, Andy Martino of the Daily News makes it clear enough that it’s not like anything is imminent. Rather, he simply confirms what many have been speculating all week– particularly, in my mind, Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, who mentioned Dickey several times in a chat with readers that I wrote about yesterday.

Martino adds:

In an extremely fluid situation, the Mets were said to like Toronto catching prospect Travis D’Arnaud, and Texas third baseman Mike Olt as major pieces in potential deals. It was unclear if those players were available in any trade for Dickey.

Toronto was not a strong player for Dickey earlier in the week, but Alderson was back in contact with Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos before leaving Nashville, according to a major league executive briefed on those talks.

“Contact” doesn’t mean a whole hell of a lot, but it’s pretty bloody obvious why Anthopoulos would be interested here: reigning Cy Young winners looking for a 3-year, $30-million contract don’t land in the Jays’ lap for the opportunity cost of a prospects from within their areas of need every day. That is an opportunity the Jays can sell to Rogers, certainly, and even with decline, regression and the effect of switching leagues, the deal Dickey is reportedly looking for is certainly palatable. He’s been worth 10 wins above replacement over the last three years– even if he racks up only six in the next three, it’s worth a shot on the upside that he’ll be worth far more.

If I sound more into this idea than I have been for the past few days, it’s because I am. We’ve been led to believe we know the kind of deal Dickey is looking for, as the Jays will have as well. If they truly think they can sign him, or they get a window to extend, the prospect price hurts a whole lot less than when we’re just talking about one year.

And maybe there’s something to this.

Forgive me for trying to hard to connect a couple of dots, but in an earlier piece, Martino wrote that “while the team was dissatisfied with many trade proposals from other clubs, it was sitting on at least one acceptable deal.”

Add that to Elliott’s statement from yesterday’s chat that he had been told that an offer of JP Arencibia and Anthony Gose “gets it done, but Mets still looking for better offers,” and you start to wonder if both reporters are talking about the same thing.

It’s a damn hefty potential price for Dickey– especially only one year of him– but the Jays are in a decent enough spot in centre, with any production from Rasmus basically being gravy, and Emilio Bonifacio available to cover the position in case of injury. DJ Davis is still much too far away to start thinking about him, but… yeah, it could be lived with, I really do think.

Then again:

And, shit, maybe entertaining this stuff with a club in a “foreign country” is a way to force the issue. Who knows?

So… there’s that.

Comments (228)

  1. 1st!

    except that you can just sign him as a free agent next year and give up nothing.

    you don’t spend years acquiring top prospects to blow your whole wad in 1 year on a pipe dream of winning a world series

    • I doubt the Mets keep him and do not sign him to an extension. Hence the trade talks.

      Think about it.

      They either trade him now, if they can not agree to an extension. Its simple.

    • um ONE year? have you seen the players and the contracts currently signed by the Jays? give your head a shake.

    • There is no fucking way id trade Travis D’Arnaud or JP. for the Dickman. No offense to him, great year last year. but. the guy is 38 years old. And i dont see him repeating his last years performance, or even get close to that. gose, sure. but 1 of the catchers… no way.

      • You should take a look at the stats for Tim Wakefield, Phil Niekro and Charlie Hough. Those guys had the best years of their careers in their late thirties to early forties.

    • Amazingly obtuse comment, even for you.

    • You are stupid.

  2. Best title ever.

  3. you also forget the jays need to resign johnson next year. you can’t have both.

    so who do you want to lock up dickey or jj? I’ll take jj.

    • +1

    • What do you mean you can’t have both? Is there a rule I don’t know about where you’re only allowed to sign one pitcher per year? Does Josh Johnson have a line in his contract saying he’ll only play one season with R.A. Dickey and after that it’s “him or me”? ARE THEY SECRETLY TWO DIFFERENT ASPECTS OF THE SAME PITCHER THAT HAVE BEEN MAGICALLY SPLIT UNTIL 2013 AND THEN WHICHEVER ONE GETS SIGNED GETS TO KEEP LIVING????? WHOA!

    • Because you know for a fact that the Jays can’t afford both Dickey & Johnson smart guy?

    • This is so not true.

      Cant have both? WTF is wrong with you?

      Why not? Like really, why not?

      • no they can’t afford both. there are already maxed out. do you even listen to what AA says?

        • AA is saying the same things he said a month ago when the payroll was $80 million.

          Phrases such as “it’s not a bottomless pit”, but qualifies it with “if I can make the case to Paul, he makes the case to Rogers for more money” etc.

          Do YOU even listen to what AA says?

          • you are stupid if you don’t understand that 120 mil is prob break even for the jays but 150 would be loss territory so there is NO CASE to be made.

        • You need to go away.

          AA has always said and continues to say that there is no FIXED payroll number and that he goes and asks upper management (like he did with The Trade) for more cash.

          So how you could possibly say that they can not sign both, as if you actually fucking know something is beyond me.

          I think I am simply going to stop reading your stupid fucking posts.

        • REALLY?

          $150 million is probably less than Rogers annual advertising bill, and believe me, the last month’s worth of action has bought them far more positive feedback than any ad they run.

          Each home playof game probably nets them $3-5 million, and that’s without counting the ancillary benefits, like the MILLIONS of dollars to be made by the parent company on advertising revenues across the country, and the increase in value of the franchise.

          The entire gross revenue for the team for one year is less then the EBITDA Rogers makes in 2 or 3 weeks!

          An extra $10 million to Rogers? They’ll make that in about the time it takes you to write a witty response.

          Or even an unwitty response..

          • He’s talking about the blue jays division of rogers. A 150MM payroll probably wouldrepresent an almost guaranteed loss for that division, you can’t look at rogers as one company that moves cash from one thing to another, each division of rogers is expected to be financially self sufficient, so the advertising dollars rogers spends as a whole are irrelevant.

          • You’re going to have to explain to him what EBITDA is; he’s likely typing his stupid comments on his father’s old desktop in the basement.

          • Problem is, Josh, you can’t do that, at least not if you wanted to get a fair representation of value.

            Remember reading some months back what Rogers was paying the baseball division for their tv content. Can’t remember what it was, but I do remember thinking that it was a gross and dramatic under-representation of their fair value.

            As a 100% owner of the Toronto Blue Jays, this does not represent a problem or an accounting inaccuracy, as one hand is just eating the food of the other. If Rogers was a part owner, however (even if it was 95%), they would then be expected to pay fair market value.

            However, to comment on the baseball division as being a completely separate entity financially, and to deny them fair value on a major portion of their income would be unfair and inaccurate.

            But then, we aren’t being fair or accurate when we consider player payroll as the primary factor in expenses. It is the most variable, but far from the only cost.

        • Maxed out? How the fuck? They break even at 120 and lose money at 150? What if they fill 2.5M+ seats and host at least 2 playoff games?

          They have a free stadium, free advertising, free broadcasting medium. Please divulge your secret Rogers financial spreadsheet or stop pretending any of us know the true $ situation.

        • AA has never said they are maxed. He said he would have to go to beeston, who would go to rogers, and he doesnt want to go to that well too often. Not the same thing

        • You, sir, are remarkably skilled at talking out of your ass.

    • @Big Mouth Hungry

      “you can’t have both.”

  4. I’d take D’Arnaud’s future > Dickey’s 38 year old present, thank you very much. Our rotation is solid right now. In order of talent (imo):
    1. Johnson
    2. Morrow
    3. Romero
    4. Buherle
    5. Happ
    Is dickey in the echelon of Price & Verlander? No. Maybe last year he was comparable because he was sensational. But is it worth giving up Travis D’Arnaud? Heck no. I’d rather roll the dice and see how he develops because from all accounts, he can be our catcher of the future.

    • except they’re talking about jpa

      • I think it would be smart for AA to wait and see what he can fetch around the trade deadline. Think about it, if JPA is hitting .245 with a .310 on base, and 12-15 dingers with 35- 40 RBI and slightly improved D, he would be worth more on the market than he is right now, coming off an injury riddled season. Plus we’ll be able to see what D’Arnaud is like with another half season (facing International League pitching) at AAA. And if he’s tearing it up, even better. But why be trigger happy? Time is on our side, AA should play the waiting game and fetch the best deal possible.

        • His OBP has never cracked .285, for one.

          It wasn’t an injury-riddled season, really. Yeah, he missed some time, but if there’s a big change in value, the Jays will want to keep him anyway.

          It’s nice to think that time is on the club’s side– AA certainly COULD wait– but as I said, opportunities like this don’t come around very often, and you’re always going to need more than five starters– especially in a rotation with Josh Johnson and Brandon Morrow– so adding another good one and making Happ your six would be kinda huge.

          It’s as much of a gamble to expect this team as constituted to be good enough to make the playoffs as it is to deal a high end prospect and make your chances that much better, frankly.

          • Can you be certain that removing Murphy if you don’t hit you fail approach as hitting approach won’t improve his obp percentage Stoeten?

      • well played David. Looks like someone actually read the post.

    • I hate to break it to you, and to myself for that matter since I love TD’A; but starting pitching is at a higher premium than catchers who can hit for average. TD’A is ‘the best catching prospect in baseball, except possibly Mike Zunino.’ Dickey was, this year, voted the best pitcher in half the major leagues. He also pitched hurt most of the year, and shows a fairly reasonable progression curve with learning “The Thing” that matches up reasonably well with other pitchers’ development, albeit much much later in his life. While I’m neither sold nor scoffing at the idea of a big deal for Dickey, saying it’s clear cut in either direction is ludicrous.

      • 6 years of d’Arnaud vs. 1 year of Dickey is pretty clear cut to me

        • It is. Which is why we’re not talking about that here– we know the cost of Dickey for three years, and it’s pretty reasonable. Changes the equation considerably with an extension at that rate. Only question is if he’d sign here, and I don’t think anyone would do that kind of deal if he didn’t.

    • fuck you, romero is number 5!!! didnt you watch baseball with your eyes you stupid head…..now back to my curry jello

  5. Blue Jays and Dodgers at the winter meetings were in on him the most probably. I don’t think it was odd that Dickey mentioned Toronto and L.A on the daily show. If dodgers don’t get Greinke they have Sp prospects and Dee Gordon to offer up while we have Jp, hope it’s not d’arnaud we’ve offered…. Hoping he becomes. 75, % of a Buster Posey.

    • Those cities were not based on any inside knowledge of trade discussions for him, I guarantee.

      Guar-an-tee.

      • Yup – he specifically referenced those two cities as being huge upheavals that are difficult for him and his family to hear about (the question asked was is it hard to hear about the rumours). Wasn’t presented completely negatively, but certainly as A negative and not in any way, shape, or form as ‘this is where i might end up’, more, ‘the two furthest places in my mind from playing in New York are LA and Toronto’.

  6. Three comments:

    1) Martino also tweeted that Alderson and AA “talked” last night, which means you missed a great opportunity for a headline like “Alderson and Anthopoulos talk Dickey late at night” or “Alderson approached Anthopoulos last night about scenarios involving Dickey.” Yes, I’m a child.

    2) I’ve brought this up before, but if the Mets want d’Arnaud, can the Jays involve Ike Davis – who the Mets have been rumoured to be open to dealing for a while? Dickey/Davis for d’Arnaud + a replacement at 1B like Lind or Cooper (who admittedly have no value) is worth considering, as much as people would hate the idea of losing d’Arnaud. You’d be trading six years of d’Arnaud for essentially a total of six years of Dickey (if extended) and Davis. That’s not so awful.

    3) The Mets need bullpen help. Wonder if the Jason Grilli rumours might be related to freeing the Jays to move a good reliever as a small part of a Dickey deal?

  7. Dickey’s agent has already said he’s amenable to an extension with a new team.

    It could be as simple as a 1 hour window if AA knows what Dickey is looking for and is willing to pay the price.

    Even for 3/30 including an extension I’d be hesitant to add Gose or Rasmus to a JPA-centred trade. But it would be an entirely justifiable move.

  8. I’ve gotten my head around the idea that it would probably take Arencibia+Gose to trade for Dickey, but if the Mets are demanding D’Arnaud then that would cause me to step back from the (imaginary) negotiating table.

    • Agreed, It may only be because it’s the deal I’ve talked myself into but Gose/JPA is way more acceptable to me than TDA+

      But, fuck, I want Dickey on the Jays.

  9. I tend to believe what AA had said about nothing even being close in terms of ongoing negotiations. I think the asking price in AA’s mind is too high and unless the Mets come down nothing happens. I think he feels the Jays are really in a pretty good situation and unless something blows him away he’s not budging any bit when it comes to giving up top prospects.

  10. JPA and Gose I could do, (with the stipulation of an extension on Dickey) if the rumors are true and the Mets want D’Arnaud instead of JPA I’m not sure I’d be happy with that, as good as Dickey has been.

  11. the jays have a limited budget. they are already maxed out. you can’t extend everyone.

    1 year of jj left
    2 years of morrow

    I’m assuming AA is planning on having drabek/hutch back in the rotation in 2014 therefore there is no need to sign dickey or any other free agent pitcher at this time.

    • “the jays have a limited budget”

      So does every major league team.

      “they are already maxed out.”

      Based on what?

      “you can’t extend everyone.”

      2 pitchers isn’t everyone.

      “1 year of jj left
      2 years of morrow”

      3 years of Morrow including team option.

      “I’m assuming AA is planning”

      How can you possibly know this.

      It’s amazing. Virtually every line is pure invention.

    • Big Mouth Hungry, stop saying dumb things, please.

      • you do remember I predicted john gibbons hiring don’t you?

        • Is this you pulling a Don Cherry, where you make sure everyone knows about the instances where your spitballing at the wall happened to be right, but the 90% of times where you’re talking nonsense disappear down the memory hole forever?

          And even if it wasn’t, what does correctly throwing out Gibby’s name a while back, have to do with the complete nonsense you’re talking right now?

        • blind squirrel meet acorn

        • No, no one remembers.

        • You’ve far and away used up any leeway you may have gotten with your Gibbons prediction. You’re now just spouting nonsense to get a rise out of people. It’d even be a bit funny if it wasn’t so obvious and stupid.

        • Big Mouth Hungry apparently angling to be the next baseballl insiderr.

      • Please use the ban hammer or something. He hurts my brain.

    • When you talk about how the Jays are “maxxed out” because spending more means a guaranteed loss, are you including the fact the Jays are going to make more in revenue next year than any other year prior, due to the excitement from The Trade? Or how much money a playoff run could net?

  12. Really hesitant to add Gose considering what Revere got in Worley. I know some people aren’t as high on Worley but he looks alright in my mind – you give Gose a year or 2 more of seasoning, if he can up his average to .265 with his 40 SB potential and some team might be willing to trade a young, long term pitcher like a Worley at that point.

    Obviously it’s still an if, but if teams dont want to spend big on a CF, the market would be in the Jays favour to wait, unless they can convince a team now to take a Rasmus, but I think average and speed is what teams were looking for.

    Who knows if that market will be there 2 or 3 years from now when Gose is in his mid-20′s, but certainly this year, there are 6-8 teams who were looking for a speedy CF and it seems many want to avoid paying big for one

    • You don’t think the Phillies would have taken Gose for Worley now? I think that’s a deal the Jays turn down.

      • On paper, no. But b/c he’s a former prospect I can’t say for certainty. Revere was much more polished but Gose may have been more desired by Phils.

        I wasn’t necessarily speaking to just the Phils in this case, more so painting a broad stroke across the league in terms of the recent deals for CF’ers

        I also dont know if Jays would turn down Worley, have never heard them in connection with him, but he’s under contract thru 2018

  13. If Elliott is right that JPA & Gose gets it done today but AA feels it’s too steep even with an extension, I don’t see the rush.

    Espescially when Alderson really seems to want this issue resolved one way or another.

    I’d love Dickey, but it’s not like he’s the only pitcher available.

    I mean, Edwin Jackson may sign for as little as 3/30 if Jim Bowden is correct. Is he likely to provide similar value to Dickey over the next 3 years? And he only costs money, not prospects or even a draft pick.

    • with the way teams are reaching out to get CF’ers via trade, I’m sure AA thinks twice before adding Gose onto any other player in a trade

      too few pitchers have signed to really set the price, need Greinke or Sanchez to sign already

      also seems like teams are hesitant to invest much in a catcher just yet

    • I agree, that would be the way to go in my opinion.

    • Jays2010: I agree, that would be the way to go in my opinion.

    • There is a huge difference between E-Jax and Dickey though, Dickey’s floor is E-Jax No. 3/4 numbers, whereas his ceiling is CY/ace numbers. A serviceable catcher like JP and right now a 4th outfielder like Gose can be easily/decently replaced.

      • shaddup, shadddup, shaddup!!! i wont tell you again……shaddup!!! Gose has too much future value to be called a 4th outfielder. you are a 4th outfielder!!! now shaddup and get out of my turbin!!!

  14. TWENTY-EIGHTH!!!

  15. Everyone always over values their own prospects and we have a chance to make the post season in 2013. Let’s go for it and role the dice on RA & JJ for one year hoping you can re-sign one of the two. We have been waiting for an opportunity to make the playoffs for 20 years and the majority of the core is currently in their prime. AA, go for it while we still have a good farm. AA is also about average salary and RA’s would be around 5 mil. No reason not to do it.

    • Having a chance to make it is still a completely theoretical exercise. We aren’t talking about a team well into the 2013 season, poised on the brink of a post-season appearance, needing that starting arm to get them over the top.

      Completely blowing our prospect pool to bits in a matter of a few weeks, to shore up our paper tiger of a team, seems like dangerous business to me.

      I’d consider doing a trade for Dickey if it can be consummated for JPA and someone like Gose. If they insist on d’Arnaud, I walk away. Unless d’Arnaud starts to show worrying signs of regression from his latest injury this season, I don’t trade him for anything less than an absolute blue chip, all-star player.

      Not one year of a 38 year old RA Dickey, Cy Young or not.

      - Scott

      • In today’s market find another top three starter for the price point in prospects and dollars? Not happening. I’m not saying blowing the prospect pool however we have a large gap between waves of talent. AA has shown the ability to keep talent when he desires and I don’t know how many more years we are going to have with this core. My guess 2-3.

  16. I don’t know why are you guys are so down on Dickey. A 20 games winner is gonna make this team an instant WS contender. I’d say trade him for whoever they want. It’s shouldn’t be hard to sign him a three years extension.
    He is a knuckle baller so his age shouldn’t be an issue.

    • By using the number of games he won as a basis of value your comment loses all of its value.

    • that is correct bare ass!! my great great great uncle mahindar duarta sinjab singh was pitching his knuckle ball to the age of 173!!! then he blew out his elbow washing out his turbin, thus needing Rama Koosh surgery……known today as Tommy John

  17. RA Dickey for Arencibia + Gose + C+ prospect for me is a no brainer… He’s a legitimate top of the rotation starter that has the most valuable pitch in the game… a 80 mph knuckleballer is unheard of… Hardly any ware and tear on him so him being 38 isnt a huge concern… i’d be that we would be getting at least 3 years of solid production. Our window to win a world series is l2-3 years also… It makes a lot of sense. Having a knuckle baller in between power pitches (Morrow, JJ) and to finese pitchers (romero, Buerhle) would really trip out lineups during a 3 day series.

    Power pitcher
    Finese pitcher
    Knuckleballer
    Power pitcher
    Finese pitcher

    So:

    Johnson
    Romero
    Dickey
    Morrow
    Buerhle

    switch Buerhle and Romero if you don’t like Romero as the number 2 or if he isn’t back to his old form… they all get the same amount of starts and all 5 have very good resume’s. Anyone can alternate 1-5. Not a big deal to them, i’m sure they only care about winning.

    This being said… if the asking price is D’arnaud then I hang up immediately. D’arnaud + + is the starting point to any pitcher in the game including Feix if he were ever available.

    • you hang up the phone immediately if they ask for TDA

      but you’re comfortable sending Jpa AND gose AND a C prospect?

      how does that make any sense

      • I’m in the same boat.

        We are much stronger/deeper in CF than we are at C.

        JPA+Gose+Fringe prospect and sign Dickey to a 2-yr extension, seems like a no brainer if the mets would actually accept it.

      • Lol @ the people who say there’s hardly any wear and tear on his arm when he’s had multiple surgeries and has on fricken UCL in his elbow.

    • hold the cab there!!! ROMERO a number two????have you been sniffing my steel toed works sandals??? or perhaps i will have to bless your face with some of my magic curry fart dust as i chant at the top of my lungs!!! pffffffffrt!!!! 1 johnson, 2 dickey, 3 morrow ,4 buerhle, 5 happ. romero gets to pass around the gatorade and sunflower seeds

    • Um, I’ll take Chapman throwing 101 over Dickey’s knuckler

  18. I said this in a different thread but I’ll say it again:

    What do you think Gose’s value would be right now if the Jays hadn’t exposed him to big league pitching last August and September?

    I think Alex may have missed this point when expressing his belief that bringing up prospects early doesn’t harm their development. Maybe that’s true, but perhaps it exposes their (real) trade value. It’s sort of like driving a new car off the lot, depreciating its value even though a car with an odometer reading 1,000 is functionally the same as the car with 0 miles on it.

    I know the Jays didn’t have much choice but … don’t you think exposing Gose last year to major league pitching really diminished his value? Think of what the Twins just got for freaking Ben Revere!

    • I dunno . . . Jays had some many injuries, they didn’t have much of a choice

      And AA felt like he had to trade Snider while he could still get some value

      I think if J Bau didn’t get hurt, Gose wouldn’t have been called up

    • Gose probably did exactly what opposing scouts thought he would.

      He showed his wheels & potentially elite fielding.

      He struggled mightily with the bat the first time, but was respectable during his second callup.

      Honestly, if I were a scout I might feel better about him after the adjustments he made.

      GMs don’t just look at the stats page.

      • He had a 105 wRC+ in 97 PA in September.

        With the other tools, he’s an all-star if he does that over the course of a season.

        • I didn’t look it up, but yes that is fantastic.

          At the same time, SSS and neither of us expect him to do that consistently.

          But it’s why I’d rather trade Rasmus than Gose. Along with the money & years of control, he doesn’t have to hit very well to be a 2 win player at the least.

          • Skeptical of his September numbers, both because of SSS (which August was, too, I know) and also because it was September. Not to say he won’t be very good, but I’m not looking at 97 PAs, some of which against 40-man pitchers, as evidence that he’ll be very good, that’s for sure.

          • …no, but its evidence that he’s capable of making adjustments. Throw out all the numbers and look at his strikeout rate (which tends to stabilize faster than something like BABIP, although 97 PAs is still a small sample). He went from an absolutely egregious ~40% to a far less scary 23.7% in September and showed a strong 11.3% walk rate. The rate at which he made contact alone was extremely encouraging

    • His value would be absolutely no different.

      • Gose was a completely different player the 2nd time up. First time, looked like a regular joe at the pitching machine at a local fair. Second time he was timing his swing much better and hitting opposite field gappers that he would slide into second with before the OF’er barely had even picked up the ball in his glove.

        Those moments made me cringe at any thought of trading him. What could have been’s and so forth

        • Dildo: I think you’re overstating how good he was in September.

          Stoeten: You don’t like when people make those kind of unprovable blanket statements. As you might recall, some “public” evaluators had Gose as the Jays #2 prospect and others had him at #7 or whatever. How do you Gose’s overmatched performance didn’t confirm the perceptions of those who felt he was the #7, for example?

    • Like when Trout came up late 2011 and didn’t impress much?

  19. If they didn’t add D’Arnaud to a deal netting JJ, Reyes, Buhrle + Boneface – I sincerely doubt AA is going to give up on him at this point. I can see a collection of lower prospects & JP but D’Arnaud.. wouldn’t fit the way AA has done things.

    • You mean the way he’s done things that got thrown out the window three weeks ago?

      • Even then he didn’t offer up the biggest prospects. Niccolino + Marisnik + Hechavaria is a lot, but there are higher ranked prospects in the system.

        I’m not saying D’arnaud is off the table, and as much as Dickey would be a tidy piece to tide the org over until the younger prospects hit.. I really don’t see him using D’Arnaud unless we’re bringing in a King Felix, Halladay (when he was traded to the Phillies) type Ace. Dickey is awesome – but over the last 2 years there are qualified pitchers in the NL who have been more valuable. Add the fact that he’s 38 to the equation and D’Arnaud is cost controlled for like 6 years… I don’t see it.

  20. JPA, Anthony Gose, and a free nose job for JP Ricciardi for RA Dickey and an fake autographed 6 X 9 poster of Mookie Wilson.

  21. I’d do Arencibia and Gose for Dickey, but only because of what has happened earlier this offseason. Take away the trade with the Marlins and the Cabrera signing and I wouldn’t do it. The time is now for the Jays and the long-term value of Gose and Arencibia are important to their trade value, but not to the 2013 Jays, especially with Rasmus, Bonafacio and D’Arnaud already secured for many years to come.

    Dickey is old but 38 for a knuckleball pitcher is not the same as most other pitchers. I don’t think the Mets are hesitant to sign him due to his age, but due to the fact their team is not ready to contend in the next couple of years and it doesn’t make much sense to lock him up for a certain price, when future pieces can be added (similar to when the Jays traded Halladay).

    A rotation of Dickey, Johnson, Buehrle, Romero, and Morrow would be decent and allow Happ to move to bullpen/fill in for injuries.

    One last point – have we ever seen the Yankees and Red Sox so weak in the last 15 years? The opportunity is available so I say go for it. The East is a winnable division for the Jays in 2013.

    • Man, the Yankees are still pretty scary and BoSox aren’t nearly as bad as they were last year.

      • Scary how? Almost every one of their players has their best year behind them. Who is their catcher, right fielder and the back-end of their rotation? Rivera is coming off surgery and they have lost Soriano. I don’t think they will be a bad team but this is currently the weakest they have been in years.

        Melky Cabrera is actually younger than any Yankees outfielder.

        • Well, they’re not too different from the team that won 93 wins last year.
          And look at their lineup. Sure, a lot fhem aren’t at their prime anymore but there’s still a lot of production left from Jeter, ARod, Tex.
          Add in Cano and Granderson and you have a pretty damn strong lineup.

          • Have you read a sports page in the last 6 months?

            A-Rod is out at least until July, and I’m not sure if he’ll ever have WAR value again, considering his health.

            Jeter is still in a full boot- limited range before this.

            Texeira has seen his OPS drop every year for the last 5 years, and is trending below 800 OPS this year- good but not great for a 1st baseman, no matter his defence.

            Granderson stikes out in 33% of his plate appearences, and is a whole lot less intimidating without others in the lineup.

            Cano- OK, I’ll give you him.

        • True, but you can never count them out. They still have some great hitters in the line up with Granderson, Cano, Tex and possibly Jeter.

      • How in the world is Boston not worse than they were last year? They lost Crawford, Beckett & AGon and replaced them with???

        They are a MUCH worse team on paper than they were at this time last year.

  22. No way i give up TDA for Dickey, Arencibia sure, but no way TDA.

    • I think you could make the case for being more reluctant to part with Gose than d’Arnaud.

      • How?
        Just about every scouting report indicates that TDA has more value than Gose.

      • I’d be hesitant to assume TDA’s .380 OBP from AAA last year will translate to MLB – 59 K to only 19 BB.

        I’d be perfectly fine moving TDA for Mr. Dickey.

        I’d also be perfectly fine having JPA run into fastballs 20+ times per year for the next 5-10.

      • Please make that case, Stoeten, because I don’t see it.

      • Now that this team is poised to contend are spending money Melky, Buerhle, Reyes hopefully Johnson extension and Dickey extension if we trade for him. I could make the case with all the money on the books at makes sense to actually Trade Jp and Rasmus for Dickey and keep 12 years of control and inexpensive contracts of D’arnaud, Gose to allow AA to sign Extensions for guys like Johnson and Dickey and go after free agents in 2013, 2014 . Gose and D’arnaud have years of control and I don’t think you lose much value in the now and have potential to gain so much more compared to the duo of JP and Rasmus…. Is this crazy?

        • This is assuming you feel there’s not much more to see from JP and Rasmus. I’ll admit they could be more, especially Rasmus if he can hit like June for even half a season.

        • The issue with extending Johnson will not be $: it will be term. If he has the kind of year we’re all hoping for, he may be looking for a 5-6yr contract and it is highly doubtful that AA will go there. If such is the case, they make him a qualifying offer, take the pick and sign/trade for a comparable guy next season.

      • I wouldn’t trade either gose or tda for dickey.

        I’d much rather trade JPA and Rasmus.

        I’m assuming that the mets would find that deal far less attractive however.

  23. Has anyone else thought that maybe Dickey’s numbers are inflated because Citi Field is a pitchers ball park, as opposed to the Rogers Centre which is a hitters park? Heres hoping that if the Jays do trade D’Arnaud for Dickey, that he gets lit up on a nightly basis.

    • His xFIP last year 3.27 (incidentally the same as his FIP). xFIP doesn’t explicitally incorporate park factors but it does account for BABIP and HR/FB rates which are pretty much the only effects of the ballpark.

      • Don’t forget FIP isn’t a good stat to use for knuckleballers. Look at his ERA+ (baseball reference) or ERA- (FanGraphs) if you want a comparison on how he did with adjustments for park factor.

    • I also recall Tim Wakefield saying that throwing The Knuckler in the closed dome was one of the best environments with which to throw the pitch.

      So TOR keeps the lid closed for all Dick-starts.

      • Agreed. I seem to remember Wakefields knuckler dancing all over hell and befuddling our hitters during his Dome appearances.

        Wouldn’t give up Gose or TDA for Dickey though. Gose is just too electric and exciting a prospect (despite his hitting concerns) and TDA is well…TDA.

    • Not much difference last year.
      http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.cgi?id=dicker.01&year=2012&t=p#hmvis::none

      The most thrilling thing about him was those back to back CG one hitters against BAL and TB.
      I want Dickey.

  24. Oh no, DO NOT Trade D’ Arnaud. Not for Dickey anyway.

  25. Not liking the lack of depth we’d be going to.

    No depth at SS currently, no depth in CF after Gose, only far away depth at C after TDA.

    • What are you talking about? After Boneface and Davis, you still have Gose as a CF who can still survive on this roster in the bottom of the lineup. What do you want? 3 starting MLB CF’s on the active roster? Boneface is a reliable SS option as well. To say we don’t have Catcher depth is silly too. JPA, Buck, TDA, and now Whiteside.

      If anything, we are lacking depth at 1B which can easily be handled by another platoon bat or JBau/EE quite easily. Starting pitching and the bullpen to an extent is where we have a lack of depth. Thus the Dick post.

  26. this whole 4 team-Greinke-Upton-Hamilton love quadrangle is really clogging things up

    nobody wants to act first

    kinda want Hamilton to just say fuck it and sign with Seattle, that’d be awesome to see – probably expedites the Greinke signing and Upton trade (if it even happens)

  27. Sorry…I wouldn’t do that. Not JPA and Gose – especially with Dickey potentially prematurely ejaculating from the Jays after just one season. (hadn’t seen that one yet, so I’ll use it)
    There’s about 4 guys I consider untouchable right now – TDA, Gose, and the two guys in Lansing.
    If there was a way to extend our Dickey for a while – I’d think on it.

  28. Anthony Gose minor and major league batting averages and strikeouts, year by year:
    A .259 110
    A+ .262 132
    AA .253 154
    AAA .286 101 (Las Vegas factor)
    MLB .223 59 (only 189 PA)

    Who the hell cares how fast or young he is. These are shit numbers, unless you can hit 25+ HRs a year. He’ll be lucky to hit that many over his career. Either trade his ass while he at least has some perceived value, or wait for the most glorified pinch runner / defensive replacement in Jays history to continue to falter at the plate every single night.

    • when you start listing a minor league players batting average, all credibility of baseball knowledge pretty much goes out the window.

      Age/Level Games/Total Bases wOBA
      18/A 131/180 .316
      19/A+ 130/201 .339
      20/AA 137/211 .348
      21/AAA 102/176 .352

      Given that he plays a premium position, and plays it well AND is a threat on the base paths.

      you couldn’t be more wrong

      • wow that chart came out all fucked

        18/A games 131 total bases 180 wOBA .316
        19/A+ games 130 total bases 201 wOBA .339
        20/AA games 137 total bases 211 wOBA .348
        21/AAA games102 total bases 176 wOBA .352

        • You basically just added whipped cream to a log of shit. I’m still not going to eat it.

          • That’s a good line, but it’s completely wrong.

          • I dont see why I have to spell out the concept of context to you, or perhaps you simply lack the mental capacity to see right of the batting average.

            If these were David Cooper’s numbers, IE a cement footed 1B, then yes, chance are that you take him out back and shoot him.

            but given the fact that he’s a good defensive center fielder with a ton of speed AND is playing vs older opponents, you are simply wrong.

          • Next stop Yuk Yuk’s now go away, RHG(Fuck)face.

          • what if I sprinkle curry on it and put a cherry on top?

      • Well said man. Considering what they asked him to do in AA with his swing, those numbers look even better. Again people forget how young he was for the competition. He was either the youngest or 2nd youngest in his league the last 2 years.

        • So being young relative to your peers automatically means you’re going to get better?

          • Obviously there are no guarantees but it certainly means the percentages are better and it gives a player more time to improve before reaching his prime.

            • I just don’t get how someone who clearly struggles at the plate, regardless of his defence or speed, is considered a valuable prospect. Or how the chances are that he’ll get better. Nothing trumps hitting skills, and being great young athlete doesn’t mean you’re likely to get better at something as unique as hitting a 95 mph fastball or dirty slider just because you’re only 22. I’m not sipping the blue kool aid.

          • Holy Fuck Hassey.

            Stop bringing batting average into the argument. Period. This blog is not meant for batting average, RBI loving fans. TSN is that way ->>>

            • Calm down…. Gose can’t hit. Strikeout king. Pinch runner. Defensive replacement. Not sure how many ways to put it.

          • If the message you’re trying to convey is how oblivious you are to anything baseball related beyond old-timey shit, don’t worry, you don’t need any more ways to put it

      • This.

        Age relative to peers as a prospect is the new market inefficiency darling.

    • Gose is 22. He was playing with older guys at every level of his minor league development, and especially with his speed, OBP, not BA is way more relevant, and has been .350-.365 the past two years. He was a 0.4bWAR player despite really struggling in his first call up, when he was 21.

      It’s completely bonkers to write him off.

      • fuckin ay!!!! hes just getting his feet wet, give him some time and a sweet blue fuckin turbin!!! he will slap all the bitches with his meat!!!all day and night….now back to my favorite breakfast cereal Curry Loops!!!

    • Yes, I know I’m a racist and didn’t pass Grade 8, but look at his batting average! He Sucks sucks, sucks, sucks! I should know! I suck more than– squirrel!

    • You do realize he’s like 8 years old right? And please, don’t use batting average for someone with that kind of speed and elite fielding ability, if he can get his OBP into a respectable range he’s an all-star with 90 stolen base potential.

  29. I would never move D’Arnaud for Dickey. I would much rather move J.P.

  30. If it takes a 2nd good asset to attach to JPA, would people prefer it be Rasmus or Gose?

    I’d rather move Rasmus (though I’d still like to see him get one more shot) based on contract, years of control and the fact that Gose doesn’t have to hit much to be more valuable than Rasmus has been the last 2 years with his wheels & glove.

    If Rasmus repeats what he did in 2012, he’s likely looking at $7+ million in arbitration and could be a non tender candidate.

    • That’s a good question because wins matter so much this coming year (and the next). Moving two starters for Dickey almost defeats the purpose.
      I think I’d lean towards Gose but I feel like an idiot for saying that.

      • But Rasmus’ projected $4.5 mil salary could be used on another OF.

        I tossed out Ichiro the other day as he seems like he’s going to get a 1 year deal. And there are enough potential CF on the 25 man not including Gose.

        In a perfect world, I’d like to see the Jays keep both Rasmus & Gose and have at least another half season of data before trading one.

  31. Tall Boys Tonight! Steibs’s No-No!!
    Anyone else going?

  32. I dunno, doesn’t AA take a risk if he managed to deal for Dickey but isn’t able to sign him? I think I would sweeten up the deal with JPA, and another prospect(s) not named Gose or TDA. Surely AA has someone to give up other than those two.

  33. Dickey ain’t coming here.

  34. You may not like it but BMH makes a point. I’d love to have Dickey here but if he comes, I’m not convinced they will extend both him and Johnson. The point about the payroll is a valid one. Rogers have pushed the payroll up by around $40M. Yes they have more money than God but they won’t just spend and spend and spend. I think they will pick one and let the other go at the end of the season if things go well, or trade him at the deadline if they don’t.

    • Look at the Dodgers TV deal. Extrapolate.

      Of course we can afford both JJ and Dickey.

      • For the last many seasons since Rogers took over we have been able to afford the most expensive payroll in the major leagues. But somehow we didn’t. The tv money is great but doesn’t make a huge amount of difference to Rogers. They are not all of a sudden flush with cash. They’ve always been flush with cash. I don’t think that leopard just slips off its spots and climbs into a fully-finished wild sable coat.

        I would love them to have and keep both Johnson and Dickey. I’m just pointing out they will have a considerable amount already committed and I think it’s possible they won’t commit that much more. It doesn’t matter if we think Dickey is affordable. It’s Rogers that decides what’s affordable

        • +1.

          I would rather invest in Johnson than Dickey.

          I would rather bring back Halladay or Marcum.

          Obviously, Rogers was convinced by Beeston & AA that the Marlins deal would add payroll at a discount to what new free agents would cost.

          Now that the Jays have a solid core, it will be relatively cheaper to sign new free agents that want to come here.

          Rogers can now bring the MLB network to Canada.
          There must be some synergies involved. Could they add Jays content t o the MLB Network?

        • Your right but now with the new moves and if they’re playing we’ll on the field you have more people watching and attending games more sponsors nd tv sponsors and new national tv money. If this team competes for the playoffs all season… With more people watching and attending I have no doubt payroll can go up next year. If they make the playoffs, Maybe a payroll of 140-150 next year.

      • OK, but Rogers would want to see what the Jays do next year in terms of performance on the field 7 at the gate before they extend both pitchers.

        I can’t see AA trading TDA & Rasmus for 1 year of Dickey or even 3 years of Dickey.

    • Thank you isabella! you are driving the trolls mad! please give me a +1 so that stoeten will kill himself.

    • Oh God, first of all please don’t credit BMH with making a point.

      If we were talking about Greinke or Hamilton, I’d agree with the payroll worries.

      But the speculation is Dickie wants, what? A 3 year 30 mil contract?

      10 mil a year is really not that much for a team in this payroll range. I’m sure they could find ways to fit it in. I mean, Buck and Lind are going to make a combined 12 million this year and probably be garbage.

    • I don’t think anyone would object to BMH raising that point in a reasonable way. Of course payroll is a factor, and extending Dickey could impact the team’s ability to extend Johnson.

      It’s the over the top absolutist statements that are impossible to get on board with. Unless it’s Paul Beeston trolling DJF, nobody can justify that kind of certainty.

      • Yeah..

        “You can’t have both” vs “Could the Jays afford both?”

      • Every team in baseball is set for a new MLB TV deal next year- what 20 or 30 million more?

        The Jays finished 9 games below .500 and increased attendence by 15%? A playoff contending team in Toronto could easily pack in another 1 million fans- maybe $50 million in extra revenue? (just spitballin that number).

        I really don’t think the fans have a solid appreciation of how drastically the revenue makeup of Major League Baseball teams is and will be changing over the next few years; there’s bucket loads of new money coming in. A smart baseball team should be reconsidering his payroll parametres ahead of the curve, and locking people up for what would be presently considered overpays, but in two years will likely be considered bargains.

        My opinion. Beeston and Anthopoulis are I’m sure aware of this, too.

        • @Buffalo

          Very true.

          AA was able to get last year’s prices on Reyes,& Buerhle .

          A high quality pitcher like johnson costs 13 million plus.

          I would not trade TDA, Rasmus or JPA for Dickey unless you got a guaranteed extension for Dickey.

          It’s amusing to see the hype over a 38 year old knuckleballer from a posting fan base that valued prospects like they were gold. Now they have gone 180 degrees the other way & forget about “young, controllable, high upside ” etc..

          I remember a series at fenway in 2009 when the Jays were 27-14 & the Jays were completely baffled by the knuckleballer on the mound. I think Kevin Millar hi ta HR against him but that was it.

          • They then went on to lose the next 11 games, and crushed the hopes and dreams of thousands of frenzied Jays fans

          • @Buffalo.

            At the time I remember the players complaining that Wakefield’d knuckeballs completely screwed up their timing in subsequent games. The losing streak aftrwards wa horible.

          • Rios used to tee off on Wake as well.

        • what you’re saying about pre-emptively locking in players is absolutely true…….yet AA is doing the exact opposite when his policy involves no contracts beyond 4-5 years. so, there’s a disconnect here…..

    • The following contracts come off the books in 2014. Johnson – $13.75 million, Oliver – $3.0 million, Buck $6.5 million, Davis $2.5 and Lind $3.15 million (5.15-2.0 buyout) for a total $28.9 million.

      Increases in guaranteed contracts amount to $15.1 and arbitration raises and replacement costs for those players (if you use rookies like d’Arnaud) will amount to roughly $6.9 million for a total of $22.00 million

      Therefore you’re looking at a net SAVINGS of $6.9 million heading into 2014. If Dickey and Johnson were to cost $33 million a year combined starting in 2014, you’re looking at a net increase of $26.1 million of which roughly $25-$26 million will be offset by new national TV money.

      Now if the Jays were to trade for Dickey, there’s nothing stopping them and turning around and moving Buehlre and signing someone like McCarthy or Marcum for $10-12 million. The net effect for 2013 would be about $7 million more ($5 mil for Dickey + $10-$12 million for free agent x -$10 million for Buehrle). However, where a deal like that really shines is in 2014, as you’d save $19 million right off the bat with Buehrle gone. The last spot in the rotation could then go to someone like Hutchison, Drabek or Nolin who’ll make $500k.

      Therefore in 2014 you have a rotation of Morrow, Johnson, Dickey, Romero and Hutchison or Drabek or Nolin and team payroll would only increase roughly $7 million over 2013 which again is offset by $25-26 million in new TV money.

    • Right now Rogers is paying 36 million dollars for tv rights annually , increase payroll for JJ at 17 million and dickey by 15 million in 2014 that is just about the increase in national tv rights . Secondarily the frigging padres are getting paid 70 million dollars for regional tv annually in 2014. Rogers can cover this increase cost of pitching and not affect their bottom line. Probably receive an increase in actual advertising to cover the payment .

  35. Damn look at all the good discussions I missed out on this afternoon. Wish they would put me out of my Dickey misery one way or another. Losing out on Haren was bad enough.

    As for what we’d be sending back for Dickey look at it this way. 4 years of Ben Revere gets you a ready now back end starter in Worley for 5 years and a potential #3 in May with 6 years of control. If the Jays are offering 6 years of Gose who is a better fielder and likely to be at least as good as Revere at the plate, if not a hell of a lot better, for one year of Dickey you have to ask why the Jays would pay a lot more than that. If the center fielders are worth that much in this market then maybe the Jays look around for a better deal. Don’t get me wrong I would love to see Dickey here and wouldn’t hesitate to get him especially if an extension is possible.

    Personally I just want to be the in the stands for his first home start with a sign that says:

    R U
    A
    DICKEY

    FAN?

    I AM!!

    • where would you prefer the depth to be,
      in center field, behind the plate, or on the mound?
      I can’t picture tampa putting a crooked number on the scoreboard in a 3 game set against johnson, dickey, morrow.

      • i guess the jays hate knucleballers then

      • Personally on the mound every time. Imo we have depth to spare in CF. I guess my point is the Mets were asking an awful lot for Dickey if the Gose and JPA rumors are true compared to what other teams are getting or paying for CF players.

  36. Quiz question:

    Who flew out to George Bell in left field for the third out and sealed the Jays first post season appearance?

  37. I hate all this dickeying around.

  38. In 1991, what Jays hitter sealed the American League East with a hit in the 9th against the California Angels?

    • Dammit… I remember the call…. Jim Hughson was doing play by play on TSN….”base hit, Blue Jays win the east! Let the celebration begin!”

      I think it was Joe Carter?

  39. anyone know the three players the jays took in the rule 5 draft, and one guy they lost?

    jamie campbell was on prime time sports and told mccown, jays got three players and lost one…. but were at AAA level of the rule 5…. anyone know?

  40. Name me 3 Juans that have played for the Jays?

  41. While took the infamous Karate kick at the mound from George Bell?

    • Can’t remember…. Too focused on George charging the mound…. Good question.

  42. Who busted up the double play that broke Tony Fernandez arm?

    Speaking of destroying Fernandez, who hit him in the face with a pitch?

  43. I’ve been hoping for a Dickey deal ever since it looked like the Mets might not extend him. This is one the stupidest discussions I have ever read on DJF, with moron after moron giving retarded arguments why it would be an awful move to bring in Dickey. I don’t know what the odds are that he actually lands here, maybe 10-20% at this point if the rumours are true. But what I do know is that the mouthbreathers in this thread who have argued “DICKEY IS FLUKE HE CANT DO IT AGAIN!!!@!111″ or “THE JAYS CANT SIGN TWO PICTHESR!@!!” or “DICKEY IS OLD HE WILL SUCK AND I DONT KNOW WTF KIND OF PITCHER HE IS BUT IM JUST SAYING THISS!!!”, yes these idiots will be loving the move within the first month or two of 2013 as Dickey becomes a fan favourite in Toronto.

    Barring a huge overpayment, which I think would include d’Arnaud, the Dickey move is the Jays most realistic chance to land a #1 type pitcher. JPA+Gose for 3-4 years of Dickey could end being a huge steal. If JPA continues with his sub .300 OBP and Gose never quite learns how to hit at a high level in the MLB, then it is an outstanding move.

    • Agree with the assessment…. Especially if its Gose + JPA. Not that concerned with Dickeys age since he’s a knuckler. The window of opportunity has shortened, time to live in the present. Oh and Gose sucks balls.

    • Amazing how you took “including Gose in a deal for Dickey isn’t a great idea, considering we have no idea how likely he is to maintain his 2012 performance going forward or how his numbers are going to translate to the AL East” and turned into whatever you just accused most of the commenters of saying

      He was a good pitcher in 2010 and 2011, but you’re paying for the 2012 stud if you trade for him. How you can proclaim him a #1 type after one season is beyond me

      • not sure if this is directed at me? I didn’t say anything about Gose.

        Also Dickey has been a #1 for 3 years. His 2010 and 2011 were fantastic seasons.

  44. at least #bluejays along w/ #rangers involved in RA Dickey talks. toronto thought unlikely to trade D’Arnaud. gose maybe

    https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/276842761754390528

  45. I really wish we made the deal with Philly instead of the Twins. Send Gose to the Phillies for Worley and maybe hope to also get a reliever. Twins got a steal.
    What about a big deal with Tampa. We could send Gose and JPA for Shields. Tampa needs outfielders and is starting Molina at catcher, so that wold make sense for both teams

    • might make sense, maybe not, but in any event there is no way in unicorn land that TB trades Shields within the division. If the Ranger don’t land Greinke ( and apparently now, they are the frontrunner) they are rumored to want Shields

  46. it seems like mets holding out for something better than gose and maybe jpa. expect zach wheeler +. it doesn’t seem like any team realistically giving up a blue chip prospect for dickey. plus, mets are looking for a catcher and young OFer’s. seems like good match. but he’ll probably just re-sign. jays should bring back marcum.

  47. I think the Jays want RA Dickey BUT might want to expand the deal. I don’t think the Mets want that right now but if the offers are not to their liking, they might come back to AA and we might see and expanded deal.

  48. Get it done

  49. If you look at Dickey’s Split Stats, its a bit of a concern. Most of his success came against weak hitting teams. He was lit up by NYY, Cin, Atl and Was.

    Food for thought.

  50. I hope Alex can make a move without D’Arnaud in the deal. He’s the best catching prospect in the minors, has made steady progress every season and should be untouchable.

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