So… here’s something that might have some implications on the American League East:

And we thought adding Yunel Escobar was a nice piece of offence to add to a pitching-rich Rays club.

Danny Knobler of CBS Sports either types really fast or saw this one coming a mile away, as he’s already got a story up, in which he explains that Wil Myers is one of the best hitting prospects in the Majors, Baseball America’s minor league player of the year, noting that he hit “.314/.387/.600 with 37 homers, 109 RBI and 98 runs in 134 minor-league games last season (35 in Double-A, 99 in Triple-A).” And while the Triple-A portion was in the hitter-friendly PCL, it was in the much more normal environment of Omaha (you know, beautiful coastal Omaha!).

He’s a middle of the order bat making the league minimum for the next three years, and arbitration eligible for three more after that. Pure gold for a cash-strapped Rays club. And… well…

Ugh. But I’ll say for the Royals that they can hit. And adding Shields, and possibly Davis, to a rotation with Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana and Bruce Chen puts the Royals immediately in contention in the shitty American League Central.

It’s just… here’s the whole trade:

I mean, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery, too? Uh… fuck you, Dayton.

Like, I get why the Royals think this is their window– and especially how Royals’ management figures six years down the line doesn’t matter, because they’re not going to be in the job by then anyway– but… yeah, that looks like a very good deal for the Rays, whose rotation doesn’t even take a terrible hit in the near term– Price, Hellickson and Moore, with Archer, Cobb, Niemann and now Odorizzi easily able to fill out the back end. Maybe Montgomery, too, if he ever puts his struggles behind him.

Yeah… damn.

Comments (334)

  1. Sweet so once Shields is gone and Dickey is a Blue Jay, Toronto has the best rotation in the AL East!

    • I think you mean *if the Jays get Dickey, they could POTENTIALLY have the best rotation in the AL East. Remember Buerlhe is aging and has never performed well against teams in the AL East; Ricky was pretty shitty last year (hard to see him getting any worse)…With Morrow and Johnson you have to hope they hold up the whole season….so yeah. Kinda “Question Mark-ey”, no sure thing.

      • Fair enough.

        Fuck, it’s pretty sick that the Rays could trade their #2 starter, the Jays could acquire a guy in Dickey who would arguably be their #1 starter and that would only put the Jays on par with the Rays.

        Luckily we have the better lineup!

        • Having been a Toronto sports fan (and only being 19, living through only shit Toronto teams) I’m cautiously optimistic….shit always just breaks the fuck down for us.

      • Fuck, dude. At least let the parade start before you take a huge steaming shit on it. Fucking buzz-kills around here, I tell ya.

      • Holy fuck, you guys see this as a good deal for the Jays?

        • Not at all Stoets.

        • I don’t like that Tampa picked up one of the best young bats in baseball but saying “see you the fuck later” to a great pitcher who always seems to blow away the Jays is good news, yes. So there’s that.

          • couple of points, smasher:
            Tampa unloaded Shields who makes 13m although I think the cash piece of this deal will be to forward about 5m toKC. They can now either pay Price or maybe sign a FA like Sanchez with the money. They were going to have to let shileds walk after this year likely, as he had a 14m option I believe for next year or becomes a FA. either way he was gone
            They have acquired myers. its true, but remember how Rizzo was supposed to tear up baseball when he went from Boston to SD. Didn’t happen and he got moved to CHI Cubs where he did better but…, so with prospects no matter how well touted you just never know. T. Snider anyone??

        • I mean… the Rays biggest strength (starting pitching) just took a dent. A small dent, sure, but a dent. They gave up a sure thing quality starter for prospects. Anytime that happens, there is some risk. They still have a good staff, sure, and the guys they got will probably become good players. But that may take a couple seasons. In the short-term (this year), I don’t hate this from a Jays’ perspective. I see Tampa’s rotation taking a hit, and now needing to rely on unproven / questionable guys to fill out their back end. Just saying, it’s not a for sure coup for the Rays. Yet.

        • Hey Stoets what gets me as people saying what a great deal for the Rays this makes and some of these guys are same guys saying trade TDA for Dickie

      • It’s never a sure thing

    • If this is the price to get shields…I don’t want to know the price it takes to get Dickey…

  2. Dickey is a Bj, ,WHEN did that happen?

  3. This is a bad thing as Friedman just acquired world-beater offence for some lousy arms.

    • Idiotic statement. Myers is going to be good but Tampa bay gave up pretty damn good pitcher.

      • This deal is a huge win for Tampa, guy.

        • Long term – I totally agree with you. For the next two years (and I think that’s the Jays time to win) I believe that Tampa is much weaker after this trade.

          You don’t think there will be some adjustment period for this kid in MLB? He’s not Trout or Harper.

          • Totally agree with smasher. Stoeten seems to be assuming that Myers will be Trout THIS YEAR. And before you get upset, YES IT’S A GOOD DEAL FOR TAMPA IN GENERAL. This year? I don’t think so. Again, the DNA of their club (pitching) took a hit.

        • Why? Because Myers is the best offensive prospect in the league? Jesus Montero was a top-5 prospect two straight years (something Myers has never been, by the way) and he put up a sparkling .298 OBP and -0.2fWAR last year. Shields was tied for 10th last year in xFIP, 20th if you go by FIP. Wade Davis put up 1.1 WAR last year, Shields put up 4.3. And let’s not forget that Myers lost most of his 2011 season to injury.

          Let’s not pretend the Rays just won the next six World Series.

          • Totally agree, Chris B., I hate the confidence with which it’s said that Tampa won this trade. Sure, in terms of years of control and upside, they won. But we don’t have a clue how any of these guys will perform in the bigs. Assuming Myers and Odorizzi are sure-thing big-leaguers, they could be middle of the road big-leaguers or worse, and it may even take them some up and down before they realize that middle of the road potential. The others sound like fringe-ish prospects.

            The way I see it, the Royals are (perhaps somewhat foolishly) going for it, sensing some weakness in their division. They don’t have a big market team so when will they be able to do this again? I think Tampa may have the edge in this trade and could end up having a huge edge depending on how the prospects turn out, but let’s not act like it’s a massacre.

            So … you know … there’s that, guy.

        • only if myers lives up to the hype-remains to be seen. Joe Charboneau of Cleveland once tore up MLB and in his first year won Rookie of the year. Next season hit about 154 and was outta baseball 3 years later-ya never know til they do it.
          The pitcher, “might” develop into a number 3 so sort of a tradeoff for Wade Davis who will be a 3 in KC I would imagine.
          So, short term I actually like the trade for KC while Tampa imo, has upside potential long term

          • Chance and risk has been taken on by both sides, pitchers blow out their arms all the time. Especially a pitcher like James Shields who’s biggest strength is IP (about 600 cumulative IP last 3 years). The Rays have a stellar track record of selling off their supposedly elite arms for prospects at the perfect moment. Just look at their 2008 rotation: Shields, Garza, Kazmir, and Edwin Jackson. Garza is still pretty good but with arm issues, Kazmir is out of the MLB and Jackson is a midlevel 3-4 SP on a contending team. Wade Davis was an elite prospect but its pretty clear he’s a RP. In short, Myers’ risk to bust (which is fairly low as most scouting reports have him as a pretty safe guy; elite bat speed, decent peripherals, K rate a little high but not a red flag ala Brandon Wood, Travis Snider etc) is canceled out by Shield’s risk to suffer a serious arm injury and the Rays’ strong track record of pitching evaluation. Furthermore, the Royals gave up more to get Wade Davis (Odorizzi, Montgomery, Leonard) than they got from the Brewers for Greinke with 3 years of control. I get the feeling that a guy like Montgomery who stagnated with the Royals will thrive with the Rays development team who churn at lefties like no tomorrow.

        • I’ll take Toronto and Tampa for the playoffs over Boston and the Yankees anyday.

      • Nope. This is wrong. Myers is going to be better.

        • Yes, I’m not arguing that Myers won’t be better, I’d love if the Jays had traded for Myers as well. But had the Jays made the same trade giving up Josh Johnson or Brandon Morrow, would that have made us better? No way. Granted TB has more arms but Shields has been pretty fuckin good in the best division in baseball for several years. In my mind Tampa is only an injury away from being in serious trouble. Can you imagine if Price/Hellickson or Moore get’s injured? They have some good young arms coming up but with no MLB service time.

          Tampa could be thin in the rotation after this.

          • Look at the timestamp.

            Man, you’re really angry about proving wrong points.

            Shield is Not That Good. Look at his stats. Compare with teammates. Tampa has enough young arms to fill his role and still compete with the AL East.

          • What the fuck are you talking about timestamp?

            “Shields is not that good” – excellent point, I must have been feverish when I argued otherwise.

            I guess I should expect this kind of thing from an idiot like you.

            • Hey I’m with ya Smasher. Shields and his nasty Jays killing shit along with Davis can now fuck off and play with tornados in Americas heartland. Dorothy may not be in Kansas anymore, but those two fucks sure as hell are.

              Look at the Yankees big sticks, they dont win championships, Will Myers doesn’t either, its pitching. So I like it as a Jays fan. Sorry.

            • You guys are both retards

          • @Gruber
            Kansas City is in Missouri. Neither Dorothy nor “two fucks”, are in Kansas.

        • DC: Did you just argue Myers is going to be better than Mike Trout? Like, the (actual) MVP of the AL as a rookie Mike Trout?

          That is crazy. We haven’t seen a player come up and play like Trout right away in many, many years and now you say it is going to happen basically two years in a row.

          Deal is a win for the Rays, but don’t get carried away with prospects.

          • And, I didn’t look at the timestamp either. No guarantee Myers will be better than James Shields either. And it is kind of hard to compare pitchers and hitters as it is.

          • Sorry trout was not MVP nor should he have been.

      • And acquired the best hitting prospect in the minors, have a glutton of arms at the ready, and acquired a few pitchers with really high upside. The Rays aren’t really gonna miss shields.

        Holy fuck Andrew Friedman is a goddamn magician.

        • Shields has a career 3.24 ERA against the Jays. Myers might be awesome, but Shields gets the nickname “Big Game James” from kicking our ass. Good Riddance!

          • Isnt that “Complete Game” James?… or both?
            (in 2011 he had 11 CG’s, 1st overall). He averages 227 IPs /year.

      • Very bad news for the Jays.

        TV has an arm to fill in for Shields and now has Odorizzi to fill in for that arm.

        Trade from a position of strength to upgrade a weakness in potentially a big way.

        Anyone saying the Jays should trade JPA because we have Buck/TDA can not think this is bad for Tampa.

        • The only saving grace for Jays fans is that by the time this guy is coming into his own, Price will probably be a Dodger.

          Hopefully, they’ll be unable to chain these beasts they’ve acquired into their prime all at once.

    • You mean a triple A player with numbers just a little better than Travis Sniders were ?

      • Travis Snider’s K rates were alarming but simply ignored. Plus, the Rays are strong at player development. Travis Snider himself has said the biggest detriment to his success was not his ability but Cito Gaston jerking him around.

        • I don’t think he QUITE said that, but I agree that evoking Snider at every turn as this prospect bogeyman who makes it impossible for anyone to think anything positive about is something that needs to be stopped.

          We can evaluate guys individually. Myers wasn’t rushed the same way (Snider played at four levels as a 20-year old in 2008, which is just nutty), and he crushed AA at the start of this season in a way that Snider could only ever dream of, even with all the strikeouts.

          His numbers in AAA aren’t as nice as some of Snider’s, but Myers, despite also being in the PCL, is playing in a much more neutral park, and against teams in much more neutral environments than Vegas.

  4. Jamie Campbell ‏@SportsnetJamie

    Good news for #Jays fans. According to @Ken_Rosenthal, James Shields is on way to KC (with Wade Davis). Still a deep rotation in TB.

    Jamie Campbell and Greg Zaun are actually paid to discuss baseball. Yay great news Jamie. The Rays just got the best hitting prospect in baseball.

  5. I don’t like the sound of this.

  6. So that takes KC out of the Dickey race, only Texas and the Jays by the looks of it…

  7. rays just lost 8.6 of WAR. looks like they are back to rebuilding.

    yanks lost 11+ of WAR

    the AL east barn door is wide open

  8. Goddamn Moore is fucking stupid.

    • I’ll wait to see what the ++ is. Getting Davis in the deal is better than I figured Moore would do.

      • confirmed, its shields, davis & ptbnl for myers, odorizzi, montgomery and leonard

        Okay Moore is an idiot.

        • I’d have made this trade in a SECOND for Price. Shields? Ehhhhhhh not so much. He’s a nice #2/3.

          • This was Shields’ walk year, or next year is. They just got like 22 years of control for 6.

        • Lol if AA made a similar trade djf would burn down

        • why is he an idiot? they know what they gave up and what they are getting in return. they now arguably have what they need to compete in ALC. Ordozzi hasnt done much nor do they have faith that he will be a frontline pitcher ie shields.

    • The royals are fucking stupid. They gave up their best prospects for #3 and #4 starter. Now it looks like jays and rangers in on dickey

    • I actually don’t mind this trade for the Royals. It makes them fringe contenders this year and next, which they wouldn’t have been otherwise. Seriously, their staff was awful last year.

      Remember, trading away prospects is the new market inefficiency.

      (I’m mostly kidding with that last part.)

  9. And Yankees…..

  10. Rays reloading their farm system and still have a quality product on the field. Their GM deserves major kudos.

  11. “Huge #Rays trade is Shields AND Davis (and PTBNL) to #Royals for OF Myers, RHP Odorizzi, LHP Montgomery, 3B Leonard ”
    Marc Topkin ‏@TBTimes_Rays

  12. RoyLOLs include Odorizzi

  13. Well including this trade and the revere trade; Anthony gose will be a fucking valuable piece in any trade for a starter

  14. It’s Shields, Davis, PTBNL for Myers, Odirizzi, Montgomery, Leonard.


  15. If the Rays make serious upgrades to their offense the Jays will probably have to settle for a Wild Card Spot

    • This is a great trade for the Rays, but they haven’t necessarily improved their 2013 team.

      • I think they have. Odorizzi gets 150 innings of sub 4.00 ERA ball this season. Myers might be an upgrade on everyone the Rays had in their lineup in 2012.

        • Key word in what Jays 2010 said is necessarily. They traded something as close to a sure thing as you can get for a bunch of uncertainty. Usually it will pan out well for them, but it is a touch risky. Still a really good trade though.

          • so far for 2013 on the offensive side of the coin, TAMpa has lost Keppinger ( ok defence, very good OBP and toughest to SO in MLB after Scutaro) and replaced with Escobar ( good defence, ok avg ok OBP). Essentially a wash at best.
            Lost upton with 30 steals alomost 30 HR and yeah he struck out a lot and replaced with Myers who will do??? Better Than Upton?? that is the $64 question. I do not think Tampa is any better than last year unless myers has a monster year and the chance of that I beleive is small.

    • How do you figure? It’s a crapshoot at the top and the Jays are as much in the mix as anyone.

  16. Whats your source on the players the Rays are getting back? That shits not even on MLBTR yet

  17. Wade Davis will be made a SP according to the KC news release. Oh Royals, you never cease to dumbfound and confuse me.

    • Davis was a SP his whole career minus last season when Hellickson/Moore emerged and the Rays moved him to the pen. David has a much higher ceiling as a SP

      • And he was never THAT good of a SP. He really broke out last year in a relief role for the Rays and I think that would be best suited for him.

      • His SP and RP numbers say he’s a WAY better RP.

        • or it just meant that Davis pitched well last year and his numbers as a starter will improve from what he learned. You now know that’s he a really good reliever (something that the Royals had a few of this year), why not start the season with him starting, if he struggles how tough is it to switch him back. Not starting him, with the bullpen that the Royals have, would make no sense to me.

  18. I wonder what it will take to poach Hosmer from idiot Moore? Romero??????

  19. Wow, great deal for the Rays. Thanks for the farm team Moore.
    This is the reason why KC will continue to not matter. They can’t stick to a plan.
    Myers is going to be good and everyone else is a bonus.

  20. Wow. Rany ain’t gonna like that.

  21. Rob Neyer, huge KC fan’s comments ..

    “@robneyer: My quick take: This is the worst trade in MLB history unless Wade Davis becomes a good starter, in which case it’s only the second worst.”

    Not good for jays as TB got great value and this may take AA’s ninja crown from him!

  22. Aren’t those 3 of the top prospects in the Royals system?

    • Myers and Odorizzi yes, Montgomery was once a top 20 ‘spect before he got hurt and sucked for 2 years, but that was in the PCL…

    • by BA Odorizzi was number 5 this season (behind Myers, Zimmer, Starling and Ventura). Montgomery dropped out of the top 10. He still has a great change though.

  23. The rare trade that pisses off both fan bases by one team abruptly changing course from the near term to the long-term and the other team sacrificing the long-term perhaps foolishly for the near term.

  24. The Royals are in the AL Central. They should be “going for it” every season. Its not like a real division where if you trade the wrong prospects you might not be able to sustain contention

    • When you have a cheap-ass owner like David Glass, you’re better off hanging on to your elite controllable talent.

  25. Rays and Jays are going to turn the AL East into a bloodbath, and the Yankees always do something too.

    I’d be content with being in contention and missing the playoffs by a hair given what’s transpired since 1993, but wow if the Jays put together the club they did and still miss the playoffs.

    • I take it all back after reading up. This opens the door for the Jays next season, but the Rays will continue to threaten long-term, though I don’t think anyone expected differently. Rays could still threaten next season too if the prospects develop at Mike Trout speeds as opposed to Jose Bautista speeds.

      • It doesn’t change that much for the rays it’s almost the same as it was this morning in terms of the competition int he division in which the Yankees could realistically finish last

    • I could settle for just contention this year IF we lock up Johnson. If we don’t lock up Johnson, that trade was essentially a waste.

  26. Hoping that the PTBNL is Price…

  27. AA has to make a response move for dickey or any other pitcher; Right??????!!!!!!!!!!!! Fuck the rays and Yankees plus sox are going to steal the playoffs from us

    • Seriously? A response move to a team reloading on prospects? We already have Josh fuckin Johnson and Jose fuckin Reyes. If anything the AL East still needs to respond to us.

      • If you think the Rays just traded for Myers, you need to look harder at this trade. The Rays just got back starting pitchers replacing the ones they just traded away. And if Myers continues to desecrate the minors, all that talk about the Rays having no offence is gone by June.

        The Jays have yet to put this team on the field, and all of sudden, it’s our division to lose? Well, this season is a disaster if the Jays don’t win the division I guess.

    • I think less of the entire human race after reading this

  28. the Rays are just trolling with asset-management porn at by this point. It doesn’t matter which good big leaguers (whose value is maximized and who are about to enter the average-to-decline stage of the aging curve) they trade for affordable, sexy prospects, it only matters that they keep doing it. the process!

    • Give ‘me the farm for price!

    • As much as I hate the Rays when I’m watching them chip away the Jays all damn season I can’t help but secretly love the shit out of them. You can’t even bitch about their ownership because they play in an empty stadium.

  29. the ninja part is that even if Odorizzi or, less likely, Montgomery just become average 4th starters, which is a likely enough projection, Tropicana and the Rays’ consistently good D will make them look better than they are. So by the time they’re getting more expensive and entering their mid-to-late 20s, the Rays will trade their maximized value for more youthz.

  30. I like this deal for the Jays next year, but after that the AL East is going to be an even worse nightmare. Tampa got a massive haul.

  31. Look, it’s a great trade for the Rays. But let’s not act like this will definately make their 2013 team better. They lost a pretty fucking good pitcher even if they have like 5 arms behind Shields.

    If Archer/Cobb don’t fully replace Shields (they likely won’t) & Hellickson has a season that matches up with his FIP, the Rays pitching may fall a touch even if Moore improves (which he likely will).

    Let’s remember that Travis Snider & Kyle Drabek for 2 years of Zack Greinke would have been a huge “overpay” by the Jays 2 years ago, even though in retrospect it would have been a steal.

    Just because Andrew Friedman is Midas doesn’t mean this has to turn into gold.

    • Looking at Friedman’s history of dealing for talent, he’s got the best track record of any GM in baseball.

      • Oh I fully expect this trade to be a huge win for the Rays based on just that.

        But it’s different “stealing” prospects as opposed to “stealing” major league players.

    • Exactly the rays remain the same as a contender while the royals will probably fall on their face and lose 90 games next year!

    • Only complete nutshows thought that trading Snider for Greinke would be anything but a complete steal. A Cy Young winner for a puff of hype.

      • Not true at all oakville. I remember the majority thought Snider + Drabek was too much to give up for Zach Grienke.

        I actually recall Getting Blanked doing a takedown of one writer (Griffin?) who started bashing Drabek and Snider on irrelevant matters to show his support for making the trade.

        • Greinke had half a season of control left.

          Royals just got Shields for 2 and Davis for 4.

          Not even remotely the same situation.

      • This is a fake oakville post. I would approve of greinke coming but he vetoed the trade

  32. The jays equivilant of this trade would be D’arnaud, the Lansing 2 and a fringe guy for two years of Shields (solid 2) and 4 years of Davis (fringe 5/swingman) Who pulls the trigger on that fucking insanity?…I used to find the rays endearing since the Jays were the perenial 4th Place team but now my hatred towards them is on par with Ny and Boston…

    • Not d’Arnaud, Lawrie is more likely, Syndergaard/Sanchez, McGuire and Osuna is most comparable. Either way it’s a fucking shit ton.

      • Actually D’arnaud and Myers are currently ranked 14 and 8 by scouting book so lawrie really isnt a realvent comparison…

    • + million

      at least the Sux and Skankees have intolerable but dedicated fans

      nobody gives a shit about baseball in Tampa and yet they keep lingering – that’s almost doubly worse than the above

  33. Hey at least we got Jeremy Jeffress right?!!!

    • Low risk…possibly high (get it) reward…

      • Whole clubhouse will be rolling a Jeffress for Jeremy!

      • Is he even in the bullpen for 2013?

        • They obviously think they can fix something in his delivery to get him some better accuracy. If thats possible they’ve got a very low cost BP arm that throws 100 mph.

          • Further to that, I went back and read the Delabar story again. Walton and Farrett got a hold of him and instead of working on his Splitter, they got him to work on his FB and Curve location and accuracy. Those 2 pitches made his splitter devastating and presto they had a huge late inning strikeout guy.
            The bad news is, Walton and Farrett are both gone.

      • I LOLd at the “high” reward comment #lamepuns

  34. I don’t think this is nearly as one sided as it’s being made out to be.

    Both teams got exactly what they needed. KC has been waiting on prospects for years, and it’s well past time to start dealing potential for quality. It wasn’t that long ago that Wade Davis was also a top prospect…

    So now KC has one very legit arm who’s easily their best pitcher, and Wade Davis, who fits into their rotation, which was their biggest weakness by far. When’s the last time KC had a winner?

    To gain such valuable rotation pieces with years of control/under-contract, it cost them quite a bit. The Rays get a great young hitter and some high quality prospects. Myers could be the real deal, or he could have a big hole in his swing that major league pitches will exploit. Hard to say. Probably turns into a decent player at least though.

    I think both GM’s did the right deal for their team.

    • I think this trade tells us that teams were pursuing Sheilds more than we thought. The return is now the market price for a #2/3 pitcher. The Mets must be licking their chops right now.

  35. This was a shrewd trade by one of the best GM’s in baseball but you guys are acting like TB just picked up Babe Ruth and didn’t lose anything. Shields would be our number one starter.

    Myers should be good but will have to adjust to ML pitching and I don’t think will be a difference maker his first few years in the league. I could see a .280 avg with 20 homers this year. No need to jump off a bridge boys.

    The other prospects Ordrizzi and Montgomery have lost a lot of their statue as prospects.

    A good trade for young controllable players but I think this helps the Jays chances the next two years.

    • Everything the smasher said here

    • Wait, you don’t see a player who adds “.280 and 20 homers” doesn’t help the Rays in the short-term?

      Knowing that the Rays’ weakness is offence?

      • It’s probably not much above replacement level for a corner outfielder. And if you just were to stack him against traditional corner outfielders in the AL East……

        • ugh you’re the worst

          • Go crawl back into Stoetens Gimp box you ass kisser.

            • Hahahahahahahahaha. What’s in his tickle trunk, dildos shaped as Louisville sluggers?

          • why am I kissing ass??

            because i disagree with literally everything you say??

            because you lack the mental capacity to use WAR in context??

            what the fuck does it matter what the average corner outfielder does in the AL East, in respects to tampa sorely needing offense and now adding an offensive talent for the next 6 plus years.

            explain that to me you fuckin hack. please stop trying to sound smart, you’re a moron, accept it

          • I never used WAR in any of my posts, I think you’ve started so many keyboard fights that you’re mixing up your arguments.

            And your entire last line just proved what I thought, you’re 16, hate your dad and mom doesn’t know that you’re up late trying to find acceptance in a chat room.

            Make up with your dad, Stoeten doesn’t give hugs.

          • FMS

            see how you resort to bullshit personal insults?

            its because you lack the intelligence and capabilities to back up and win arguments.

            thanks for proving my point. cheers.

          • Maybe you’ll get a Jr. Jays club membership for christmas.

        • If Myers (or any player for that matter) achieves those numbers, the Rays just replaced BJ Upton’s production. And that’s a team that won 90+ games. Replacement level isn’t that hard to obtain if that’s all it took.

          James Shields is a loss, but a loss mitigated by Moore’s ascension and the multitude of other pitchers headlined by David Price.

          Look, I love what the Jays achieved so far this offseason. But let’s not act as if all these AL East teams have to catch up to the Jays.

    • why do people have such a tough time using context.

      you can trade any player in the league and not take a hit as long as you replace them.

      So yes TB loses shields, but someone will be taking his starts.

      they still have 7 potential starting pitchers.David Price, Jeremy Hellickson, Matt Moore, Jake Odorizzi, Alex Cobb, Jeff Niemann, Chris Archer

      its not going to have the impact you think its going to have

    • In 2 year Price wont be with the Rays

  36. Rays rotation is still deadly and now they got some offensive pieces to add to their roster and pipeline.

    Freidman is easily the best GM in the game. scary to think what he could do if the rays had any sort of fanbase/revenue.

    Also funny how 3 of the best GM”s in the game right now, daniels, friedman and AA have never played baseball.. kinda puts to be the argument, of You have to play the game you dont understand!!!1

  37. I love this deal for the Rays. Shields road ERA is about the same as Guthrie’s. So they’ve leveraged maybe 16 better than average starts by Shields at home for 2 years and turned it into the best or 1A hitting prospect in the minors for 6 years of control. A player that’s likely ready for the majors this year. The other prospects one whom is projected to be a mid rotation starter and the other was their top pitching prospect a year or two ago go essentially for an elite reliever or back end starter. Wow.

    The net effect for the Rays won’t be huge, don’t get me wrong I still see a positive gain overall, because you have to factor in them losing Upton, but it certainly lets them at least maintain the status quo and for a team on their budget that’s no small feat.

  38. I’ll take even the possibilty of a weaken Rays staff. It is weaker but, they have some good options in the minors to fill their rotation.

    • and are set for the future…. They’re still going to get uber prospects for Price, Hellickson in the future.

  39. Echoing what other have said, it’s a great deal for the Rays, but helps the Jays in the short term. I think you’re really underrating Shields Stoeten, dude has been one of the best pitchers in the AL for the past two years.

  40. The interesting thing about Shields in 2012 is that his ERA+ was only 108. Decent but not stellar either.

    His career road ERA is 4.55. Wonder how much regression you’ll see from him outside of the Trop for 16 starts.

    • i’m thinking pretty substantial.. outside of last year, he was never an elite pitchers.

      he’s above average, but not elite.. he’s still very hittable, and gives up a lot of homeruns

      • Kauffman stadium, Target field, Comerica park and Jacobs probably are more pticher friendly than the Rogers centre, Yankee stadium, Fenway, Camden. However Shields now has to deal with cellular field, but I don’t think he will be worse in the AL central, I think he’ll be better but he was never really a bonafide ace other than that one year. Dude now has weaker lineups and bigger parks to help him out moving to the AL central than staying in the AL Beast…. other words, I think his numbers go up.

    • Pitching in KC will be more friendly to him than the Trop, according to Park Factor.

  41. Kind of an interesting case overall. Royals trade for Santana $11 million, sign Guthrie $5 million and trade for Shields $9 million and Davis $2.8 million. 3 starters $27.8 million + mega prospects. Have to wonder if they couldn’t have signed 2 other starters like a Marcum and Jackson on back loaded deals similar to Guthrie’s and kept the prospects.

    I guess they’re in a situation similar to the Jays where nobody would take their money as free agents.

  42. Great deal for TB long term. They are not better next year IMO.

    This is good news for 13 and maybe 14, that’s my only point even though one ignorant cunt can’t seem to fathom that.

    I hate to see the Rays get good young players but they lost a great pitcher doing it and are very underexperienced in their 4th 5th starting spots with only green guys with no experience should anyone get hurt.

    Trade is a Rays win for 6 of the the next 8 years but I believe they are weaker next year and probably the year after. And that’s good news for a team that just loaded up to make the playoffs for the first time in 20 years. Or am I crazy?

    • But that’s the thing. The Rays, at worst, just remained the same. James Shields isn’t the Rays best pitcher. The Royals paid them like he was a number one pitcher. That’s the point. Will Myers is a substantial piece, who by all accounts, is very close to the majors. If the Rays get even replacement level production from Myers, the Rays haven’t lost anything. Plus, the Rays received players who have the potential to replace both Davis’ and Shields’ production. Even if by committee, so what? The Rays are simply that deep in pitching to replace Shields’ decent stats last season.

      Josh Johnson has just as much uncertainty as Myers and co. Mark Buerhle has been brutal against the AL East throughout his career. Jose Reyes may end up being the best player from the trade, but if Lind gets trotted out every game, Brett Lawrie doesn’t manage to improve substantially, Arencibia hits like his bobblehead, it doesn’t matter that much Reyes is on this team.

      • I agree the Rays had a need for some O and dealt from a position of strength. I also agree that the new Jays come with question marks.

        I don’t agree that Shields gets equally replaced by Montgomery and Ordrizzi though. Shields has a very respectable career era of 3.89, all in the toughest division in baseball. He’s only one year removed from finsihing 3rd in Cy Young voting, a year in which he had 11 complete games and 4 shutouts.

        He’s signed for a very affordable 9 million and 12 million for the next two years.

        As it stands the Rays have”


        There’s proven talent at the top and prospects at the bottom.
        Those prospects may well step in and pitch well but that’s a huge gamble in the toughest division in baseball.

        Long term Rays crush in this trade, they could have some serious growing pains in the next few years thouh IMO.

        • shields is overrated, he’s a number 3 at best.

          • I guess we’ll agree to disagree. You should probably get to bed, you’ve got school in the morning.

          • see, again. you do that because you can’t prove you’re right.

            in 2010 shields gave up the MOST earned runs in all of the AL. . he’s had 1 dominate year, 1 decent year and a bunch of average to below average years.

            you just remember him pitching well against the jays, which is why you think he’s better than he really is

          • Atta cherry pick a guys worst year and discount everything he has done since, thats a good argument. I guess Halladay sucks because in his third season he had the worst ERA in all of baseball.

            You’re mad at your dad, not me.

          • lol not only does your baseball knowledge suck

            but you’re insults werent even funny in the 80s

    • You’re pretty close imo. Upton was worth 3.3 fWAR / 2.6 bWAR last year. Shields 4.3 fWAR / 2.2 bWAR.

      Gorden was worth 2.1 and 2.5 fWAR his first 2 seasons after posting similar minor league numbers to Myers so it’s probably safe to assume that Myers could be right around those numbers his first year or even as much as Upton in 2012. On the pitching side they’ll lose a bit more because it’s unlikely Archer/Ordorizzi will perform as well as Shields. Then there’s Davis who was worth 1.1 fWAR / 1.4 bWAR on his own in relief.

      If anything the key for Rays was sustainability. Again when teams operate on such a tight budget sustainability is usually a hard thing to manage. This trade does that in spades for them imo.

      • Davis’ production isn’t that huge of a loss for the Rays if I would hazard a guess. If we know anything about the Rays, it’s their ability to churn out elite relievers every year without missing a beat.

        As for Shields, I just think Moore and Hellickson will be fine to offset some of that production. Teams could do worse than Price as #1 and the rest as #3 starters.

        I think people will be in for a surprise if they think the Rays are going to substantially do worse next season.

        • I certainly don’t think they will. Not by a long shot especially after you factor in the Escobar trade and the extra money they’ve got to spend now that Shields and Davis are gone.

      • N.M., I think you’re discounting the defensive downgrade that Myers is compared to Gordon and certainly to Upton.

  43. The good news is that the Rays rotation is no longer invincible. An injured Price would go a long ways to ruining their team.

  44. David Cameron ‏@DCameronFG

    Last year, Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos, and Michael Pineda were traded for far less than James Shields just went for. Each had 4+ yrs left.

    That summed the transaction up pretty nicely. Either a big overpay or that’s some serious 1 year price inflation. Man at those prices, Dickey is starting to look even better.

    • Rightly or wrongly I think teams still pay a higher price for pitchers that have success in the AL East.

  45. Its kind of nice not talking about the Yanks and BoSox so much. Looking forward to the AL East battle this year like none in recent memory but as a Jays fan my biggest concern in this division is the Rays.

  46. You know Daytom Moore is being asked why they tendered Hochevar if this was even a remote possibilty.

    • Plus if they knew they were open to trading Myers why the Hell did Moore sign Guthrie, trade for Santana and tneder Hochevar looks even more fucked after this deal. If Royals somehow make the playoffs Dayton Moore better not win any fucking awards.

  47. Man you guys love overvaluing everything. Sheilds IS AN ACE. By all accounts of strikeouts, innings, durability, WAR, etc. Wade davis is under contract till 2015, and Sheilds for 2 years. Jesus that is a pretty good haul. Top prospects are pretty sure things, but not 100%. I mean heyward is good, not a superstar, Weiters is good, but not a superstar. This is a fine BASEBALL DEAL.

    This is how things are suppose to happen. Top prospects, for quality players. Its sad that the rays still have such a surplus, but on the baseball end of things, the world is not falling apart. Royals have good young offensive players, if they upgrade Frenchie, all is fine. They needed arms, they dont have the money to sign them and people dont want to go there much like the Jays.

    • Career ERA+ of 107 does not make an ace. Verlander 128, Halladay 134, Kershaw 138, CC Sabathia 125. Hell even Shaun Marcum 112, don’t think he’d fall into the ace category. Shields is more of a #2 or #3 when you look at everything adjusted for park factors.

      • If you are going to compare stats recently, only verlander and him can boast last 2 years of 200+ innings and 200+ k. He is regularly a 4+ WAR starter for 4 of the past 6 years. He is not Halladay or Verlander at their best, but who is? You want 2 years of Verlander at his best, you have to give up more than just Will Myers of the 0 hits.

        • and even with myers in the lineup, this team wasnt making the playoffs. Risky, but good move by the GM. You gotta make this and try and do something before Hosmer and Moose want more money. They have no pitching coming up in the system. Why not do this? you guys just love your prospect porn too much on this site.

        • Doesn’t make him an ace which was all I was referring to in your post.

        • Buerhle also pitches 200+ innings every year, but most baseball fans won’t call him an ace. There are very, very few aces in baseball.

          And I wouldn’t put Shields anywhere close to Verlander. Just innings and strikeouts don’t make a pitcher.

          And by the way, if Heyward was made available to the Jays, there’s no player on this team I wouldn’t trade for him. He’s close to being a perennial star.

  48. The Mets can put their Dickey back in their pants, because they’ll never get close to this kind of haul and will get crucified if they deal him for much less.

  49. I think it could very well be argued that for the 2013 and even 2014 Jays this trade will make Tampa less

    • Actually the more I think on it, the more I believe it’s a neutral outcome for 2013 and a positive gain going forward. First the Rays just boosted their chances at sustaining what they have in place now. Again can’t stress how important that is for a small payroll team. It’s really no different than the way AA was setting things up the last couple of years. Between Escobar, Myers and Archer, the Rays should come out pretty close to even in terms of WAR for what they lost in Shields, Davis and Upton. However, they also freed up $11.8 million for 2013 that can be used to plug other holes like at DH.

  50. Cnsidering the Jays went “all in” for this season, should’nt the appropriae reactin to this trade be pure joy? Sure, the Rays will be very relevant as early as 2014 again, and its a great move for them as an organization, but this moves makes them worse for the immediate future. And the immediate future is what the Jays are all about right now. I think its finally safe to confidently say they are a top 5 (aka playoff) team.

    • You do realize that the offseason isn’t over, right?

      I, like the rest of you guys, want nothing more than the Jays to become competitive. But assuming the Rays are write-offs for 2013 doesn’t make sense. Myers isn’t exactly a prospect in the true sense that he’s so far from contributing to the team. Archer isn’t a scrub. All the pitchers the Rays have on their team? They’re still there.

      • well minus a top guy in the rotation and davis is valuable too.

      • Hardly writing them off. But there is no denying that ithis trade makes them worse for the near future. And yes, the offseasn isn’t over, but the Rays aren’t exactly big players in most offseasons. And there aren’t any James Shields’ out there for the taking.

        • Like the Jays, the Rays do most of their damage via trades.

          And while there aren’t any ‘James Shields’ out there, there are a few who are comparable both in free agency and whatever creative acquisition Andrew Friedman wants to make. Again, the Rays have a deep system that can help stem the loss.

        • I’ll deny it if you won’t. Rays are still a major factor in the AL East. This trade in no way makes them ‘worse’. I would still pencil them in as contenders (if not favourites).

    • I don’t think the Jays have gone “all in” just yet.

      If they did, Dickey would be a BJ right now.

  51. I wonder about the conversation in KC.

    Moore: We need pitching.
    AGM: Right, who has extra pitching?
    Moore: Tampa gots lots
    AGM: Let’s find some other team…
    Moore: [dialing] Hey, Friedman, wuz up? You got pitching to deal?
    Friedman: Everyone is available for the right price.
    Moore: Great!
    AGM: Hey, other AGM, should we just disconnect the phone line now?
    Other AGM: FUCK NO, one of us will be getting promoted next year.

  52. Quite a lot of people thought Tampa was the favorite for 2013 in the AL East. They now have extra prospect capital, who knows what bats they can turn around and get now or later. A good/smart team will always take a nice trade and move the parts later to better help themselves.

  53. So Escobar replaces Keppinger, Myers replaces Upton & more Archer/Cobb/prospects replace Shields.

    This move keeps the Rays in contention for 2013, while improving their chances in 2014 and beyond. All while saving money and gaining year of team control.

    Fuck Friedman.

    • Yeah.

      Quick math tells me they saved about $7 million between trading Shields/Davis and signing Escobar.

      Maybe they will put this to use and fill another hole.

      Shouldn’t someone be paying a lot of money to steal Friedman? Isnt this way past due?

  54. You can’t worry about how awesome the other teams are. The Jays have to figure out what they need. At this point, flexibility is important for making deals at the trade deadline. The Jays don’t need more right now, just more depth. It’s a waste to get more until you see how the team performs the first two months if we are talking about dealing top young Jays talent. I just wish we could see the internal Jays scouting reports and valuations to see how just how much they value their own prospects.

    • A team can always use an upgrade. The Jays will need someone to pitch quite a few innings out of the rotation next year. If they go into the year with Happ as a #6 then they are just that much stronger. Any move that pushes Happ to the #6/long relief role is more than a minor depth move in my opinion. AA will add more pitchers one way or another, but I hope it is someone better than Happ.

      I see AA’s options as

      1. Dickey – pricey cost of young players but low financial cost. biggest game changer.
      2. Marcum – costs nothing but money, if AA can convince Rogers to shell it out its a great move. Marcum was our ace a few years ago, as a #4 or #5 he makes this team pretty ridiculous.
      3. Jackson – similar to above, but I am a bit less excited about him.
      4. CV – bringing back Carlos is also a good move, but quite a bit less agressive than any of the above options. I don’t think CV is an improvement over Happ as a starter.

      with of course the mystery trade also being another option

      • Imo CV and Marcum are similar pitchers in style and effectiveness. They both rely on a good mix of pitches and both have great control. Marcum has had lots of injuries and will cost more as a starter. Even if the Jays can hire CV and as a starter, he wont cost as much.The old knock against Marcum was that he couldnt win against the AL East. It’s next to impossible to say if that’s still valid but Joe Maddon is still here and he had Marcum’s number. If AA and CV can kiss and make up, I’d go for CV. It’s like they were saying in the previous blog, this isnt for the Ace position, it’s for the guy you put in when one of the 1st 4 guys has to take some time off for injury or whatever.

        If you want Dickey, go get Dickey, but be prepared for him to bolt after 1 season, and be prepared to overpay massively, which in the Jays case, affects their future. And last summer Gose had a very good September against 3 playoff contenders (O’s Yankees and Rays.)

      • Please don’t call Marcum an ace. He was our #1 pitcher by default, but certainly no ace.

  55. Who the hell knows what this means for the 2013 Rays? It is a bold move, that will almost certainly work out in the long run, but it could also really hurt their chances in 2013. Tampa has great pitching, but Shields is a pretty big hole to fill regardless. The gap between the Rays’ and Jays’ rotations just got smaller, and I think the Jays still out match them heavily offensively regardless of the addition of Myers. If anything (as of right now) this move puts more emphasis on the hear and now for the Jays.

    Besides the short term implications, this is a great move for the long term for the Rays. It was a huge overpayment for a year of Shields and it sets the price for Dickey higher. If AA cannot get Dickey for the price he is willing to pay, then I hope the Jays try to sign Marcum or Jackson. If we can outpitch the Rays they will have a very, very tough time matching our offense.

  56. Rays can always flip some of these assets at the deadline – they need to be a playoff type team for what little attendance they get so if they find they are lacking in that area, they could move a prospect for a bat

    Their big get is obviously Myers who they will probably build around as the cornerstone to replace Longo longterm.

    The other pitchers they could easily flip later for more offense so it’s still a win for the Rays.

    I agree this doesn’t necessarily make them better in the short term, but it gives them as much flexability as possible – Shields and Davis’ value will probably never be higher, the demand for affordable mid-term pitching in the wake of the recent Greinke-type signings is increased and the knowledge that some team will inevitably have to rebuild as early as midseason or need to shed contracts for prospects (like NY) means the Rays have not done anything terribly harmful to their brand image, future on field play and ability to retain their best players with a modest payroll

    For all we know, the Rays could pick up some quality star players with expiring contracts from the likes of LAD or NYY once those teams need to shed some dollars – pick up a good bat in time to make their usual late season playoff run

    • good point on the mid season pick ups. the way I see it though is that it is not certain at all that the Rays will be better offensively next year (these are real possibilites: 2013 Escobar < 2012 Keppinger and 2013 Myers < 2012 Upton) and their pitching has regressed. I can't see that team winning 95 games in this beastly AL east, 90 is even a challenge, and they could also easily end up with 75 wins if a few things go wrong.

      If anything this puts even more emphasis on the here and now for the Jays, although without recklessly abandoning future hopes hopefully.

    • He’ll be replacing Longoria as the cornerstone in 2023 eh?

  57. The best thing the Rays could do to put the Blue Jays well above them in the divison is put the devil back in their name…. god they were awfull, when they were the Devil Rays.

  58. This off-season has been crazies

    • The AL east is insane. Who is the favourite? Who will be the last team standing? Will both wild cards come out of the AL east??? I think the Jays are the most balanced team though. Either the Jays or Yankees have the best offense (I vote Jays, largely because their hitters are in their prime) and the Rays probably still have the best rotation and it’s close between the Jays and Yankees. Boston doesn’t suck enough to be irrelevant (and probably have another move to make) and it is the same with the Orioles. This is going to be an amazing season to watch.

      • Yes absolutely! Every team in the division will have to respond to the greater competition. Dog eat dog!

  59. For all those of you trumpeting the Rays for moving salary, getting good prospects, and attaining financial flexibility, I guess you also think the Marlins won the trade with the Jays. I mean they dumped some awful contracts, and got some young, potentially talented, controllable players! Think of all the financial flexibility… All the Jays got were some risky, overpaid, upgrades who will be gone in a couple of years. Man, I so envy the Rays. Poor KC, poor Toronto.

  60. I have to admire the Rays in their ability to stay competitive for years operating without room for error. LA, NY, and Boston can bury their mistakes with money. TB doesn’t have that option.
    This move will keep them competitive until 2015 at least. That is amazing in that crappy market and lousy stadium.
    The Jays have a great opportunity to make the playoffs this year. I hope they make a move for Dickey. I think he just became more expensive tonight.

    • Great points Phil. If the rest of MLB didnt already know Friedman is among the top 5 GMs in baseball , they do now.
      And they could take note of how the Rays are doing it. They’ve got solid management, but they’ve taken a simple but effective route; drafting and developing good pitching and using it to win as well as leverage to acquire other pieces.

      • The Rays are not the model to emulate until they prove they can win – they have exactly 0 WS titles. It is their cost effectivness model that creates this failure both on the field, and to a lesser extent, in the stands. So Tampa gets a blue chip prospect most of us haven’t heard of until now, for a proven elite pitcher in Shields. Imagine how good Shields will look with some offence behind him. I’d take Shields any day.

        • They’ve proven they can win in the last 5 years. And they’ve been in 2 LDS’s and 1 WS series in that time. Most teams havent done that. Not every team wins a WS every year. If I was GM of a losing team with a small budget I’d definitely have a close look at their model.
          Btw agreed on Shields.

  61. I wonder if the Royals would have taken Morrow and Happ for that haul.

    • Why would the Jays do that? They need more pitching, not less.

    • Plus Morrow is no Shields, let’s be real.

      • I think it’s a very good comparison. In fact, Morrow might be worth more depending on how concerned you are about his injuries. 3 years younger with an extra year of control.

        2010-2012 stats:
        Morrow – 3.49 FIP, 9.77k/9, 3.52bb/9
        Shields – 3.68 FIP, 8.40k/9, 2.30bb/9

        • Shields: SIx straight years of 200+ innings.

          • Right. A real concern with Morrow but oseebhai seemed to dismiss the comparison which – imho – is quite valid. A healthy Morrow is likely better than Shields.
            Let’s not get carried away and start acting like Shields is in the same ecehlon as Price/Verlander/Kershaw. His talent is very comperable to Morrow’s.

  62. Jays don’t make that trade for a starter

  63. This is one of the worst trades ever. Fuck Moore.

  64. WTF are the Royals thinking?

    • Don’t say it too loudly, they might sign you to a FA deal now.

      But yeah, Dayton Moore is a fucking idiot.

  65. Just My two cents because I joined this party late. everyone saying Rays aquired best hitting prospect in Myers…. All I got to say is something I have been saying here for months, Corey Patterson at one time was Baseball Americas #1 prospect and was selected third overall. Also Wil Myers played in the PCL for fucks sake.

    • Thing is – they didn’t just get Myers. They got a couple of pretty decent arms with him too. It’s a disgusting overpay by KC.

      • I know, but I am just saying it is an oversimplification that a PCL hitter will automatically be good in the mlb when he was hitting just .304 Gose was hitting 283 I believe and we saw him struggle in his first call up. Mike Trout when he was hitting in the PCL was batting 403… For sure his offense is better but in speed, defense and arm he has good batting and power tools but the others he is just a bit above average. Something tells me RF? he did play a lot of time in CF in 2012 but the fact they had him play some time at 3b and heavy time in RF in 2011 tells me that he may not stick as a cf.

        Ordozzi and Montgomery are good prospects but Patrick Leonard was filler. comparably he was drafted a year earliar now 20 and still only hitting 250 in RK. D.J Davis progressed to low A in 2012 and is still 18. and hit .100 better at a higher level than Leonard.

    • SSS (35 games), but he posted a wOBA of nearly .500 in double-A last year. He still managed a wOBA of .400 in a league where he was roughly 4-years younger than the average age. Patterson never came close to doing that.

      PCL or not, the kid is definitely talented, and is far more likely to pull through than flame out.

      • Patterson only played in the minors untill 2001 and then sent back down at 2005. Thus using about player A -B being uncomparable when A only played minor ball till he was 21 and player B played till he was 22. Patterson was playing AAA with guys 5 years older than him comparably.

    • Corey Patterson was ranked #2 prospect in 2001 to Josh Hamilton and never higher than that. But besides that, there have been far, far more examples of top prospects going on to have successful MLB careers (Chipper, A-Rod).

      Also, he played for Omaha in the PCL, which isn’t nearly the hitters park as some of the other teams in that league. In fact, their division as a whole is much more neutral.

      • you cant seriously think that more often than not, top prospects turn into superstars?

        • Of course not. I said far more go on to have successful MLB careers. Unlike Corey Patterson, who was used to try to make a point that Will Myers could easily be terrible.

  66. This doesn’t make the Rays better this year. Unless Myers is Trout or Harper, it’s probably unrealistic that he’ll make much of an impact this year. Shields is better than people give him credit for. That’s a lot of quality innings the Rays just gave up. I agree that this is a good move for them long-term and keeps them relevant for a few more years, but this doesn’t make them world beaters in 2013.

    • You do realize that Trout and Harper are in completely different universes, right? If Myers puts up a 4.9 fWAR for the Rays, that’s far better than anyone could hope for. If he somehow manages to put up a 10 fWAR like Trout did.. yikes.

      • Sort of my point. If Myers is worth 3-4 WAR this year, that’s pretty much a wash with what they gave up.

  67. 1 less team looking for pitching. Increases the chance Marcum, Jackson etc falls into Jays lap on a short deal

  68. What the hell everyone?

    The Royals win this trade until proven otherwise. The Rays may very well get some great return on these prospects but the bottomline is they are still prospects and not proven MLB players. Wade Davis is the key in this trade. If he can produce even ballpark-similar results from his time as a reliever, then the Royals make out quite well here

    Its still and “if”, not a “when”, but if a couple of these prospects season into everyday MLB players and produce good results, you still have to factor in the value that KC has already received. A guy who has thrown 200+ innings with regular consistency and producing good to great WAR annually, and another good cost controlled pitcher in Davis who was originally scouted as a guy with more potential than David Price. Means nothing now in the Price comparison but my point is that potential and scouting reports still have to be proven on the MLB field

    • And yes Myers and Odorizzi are closer to the MLB than the average prospect but they are still closer to prospect status than MLB status. I’m not saying KC is winning any landslides here but I think it’s closer to a win-win more than the other comments I’m reading here

  69. I think that the bid deal here (for the AL East) is that due to the Rays pitching depth, this trade doesn’t make them appreciably worse for 2013 (they still have tons of starting pitching), but are potentially set up for quite some time with some excellent, ready or nearly ready for MLB players. Say what you want about the PCL, there is a very good chance that Myers, at least, will become good MLB player. Ordozzi as well.

    If anything, this will kill the Dickey talk, as the Jays can’t affort to trade top prospects (and be good in 2013/2014), while the Rays acquire top prospects (and be good in 2013/2014).

    All of you guys who weren’t crazy about doing JPA + Gose for Dickey should be doing a dance right about now. I wonder if they’ll simply spend money on Jackson now, or get some Laffey types for depth (or both).

    • Sorry, losing their 2nd best pitcher makes them appreciably worse.

      Despite Moore’s sparkling pedigree, he is not their 2nd best big league pitcher. That was Shields, and he’s gone now.

      Moore was good for his age in 2012. Now he has to be just good.

      And while the dropoff from Shields to Moore as #2 may not be big, it’s the domino effect that’s hurting the Rays. It’s the dropoff in the back of the rotation that’s going to hurt them.

      The Rays need sparkling pitching from top to bottom with that lineup.

      • Sorry, I meant #3. I’m putting Hellickson as their 2nd best.

        • You’re points are well taken. When I look at Hellickson and Moore going into their age 24 and 26 seasons, I’m unapologetically making an assumption that they’ll continue to improve and likely make up some of Shields’ 2.2 WAR from last year (on a 90 win team).

          Of course losing a great pitcher like Shields hurts, but it is mitigated by trading from a position of strength (young, improving and controllable strength). If you add a full season from Longoria (hopefully, if you’re a TB fan) and the near MLB ready prospects you got back, TB is a formidable team in 2013 and well beyond. When you add the fact that TB had little chance of re-signing Shields, this trade may turn out to be fantastic for the Rays.

          Given their current roster and organizational depth moving forward, I hope that AA doesn’t go all in for one year of Dickey (contrary to what I said on this site last week…this trade changes the landscape of the AL East for me). We may be playing second fiddle to the Rays for some time.

          All that being said, if TB wins less than 88 games next year, I’ll meet you back here with an acknowledgement of your superior baseball intellect.

  70. The onus is now on Texas, Detroit, and LAA – one of those clubs will have to overpay – Sanchez, EJax and Dickey will be their suitors – Dickey seems bound for Texas if Texas is willing to part with Olt. I think Detroit wants to re-up with Sanchez.

    Now many of the other smaller market teams seem set for pitching.

    I mean once it’s all said and done Toronto could very be competing with the likes of a Chicago Cubs for a Marcum, which, really, isn’t so bad after all. We all prefer a more ace-like pitcher, but I think it’s more about depth, so if we add a Marcum on the back end for a 1 yr deal, that’s still ok.

  71. Thank You to the RAYS for FINALLY making this an exciting off-season in the AL East.

  72. Hate to interrupt the circle jerk over Myers, and don’t get me wrong he’s a great prospect. But in terms of valueable, TDA is a more valuable prospect then Myers.

    his offensive numbers in AAA were more or less comparable (TDA had better avg/OBP/SLG/OPS, Myers had a bit more raw power)…as a pure hitting prospect, sure you take Myers. But considering Myers is an OF prospect and TDA is a plus defensive C….and that gives him a pretty clear advantage. ….and for all the “Myers is so young” stuff, TDA is only 8 month older.

    So instead of moaning about the Rays getting a guy who MIGHT kill us in 2 years, let’s be happy we have a more valuable prospect right now, and also that the 2013 Rays got a bit worse. Even if Myers plays in 2013 (unlikely before Sept) there has to be an expected learning curve. Meanwhile the Rays rotation took a big hit. Shields was the 3rd runner up in the Cy Young last year.

    • Because considering our n(arguably) best pitcher is only on contract for 2013, THAT’S the year I’m worried about right now.

      Also, if we fizzle this year, it might cause some problems to our momentum in terms of payroll/fan suppoert etc.

      But if we can do something big like a WS appearance, then that is going to propel this team for years. It’s much more important for us to have worse division rivals in 2013 then it is in 2014 or 2015.

      • I am 100% with you on this.
        i think the years of acquiring prospects have trained the trendy jays fan to really over appreciate and love minor league players that get good reviews.
        Shields is a stud, the royals needed pitching, they added 300 quality innings without sacrificing anything off of their major league roster.
        Myers has a much better chance of being nothing, or just a regular player, then he does becoming a superstar.

      • Right, because it’s reasonable to accept your amateur scouting abilities and minor league numbers over the numerous professional scouts who rank Myers higher than TDA.

        • drabek eric hinske, corey patterson, travis snider, mcgowan….
          fuck the list of cant miss guys who become decent players, or dont even play is 100x longer than the list of cant miss guys who are actually cant miss guys.
          the whole point is you trade a known commodity, that is getting expensive, for an unknown that could be good, or might not be. There is no scout on the planet that can say with 100% certainty, yes this kid who’s never seen a major league pitch is going to be a star.

  73. Dickey. I don`t get. This trade and the Rays love I don`t get.

    The Rays traded the known for the unknown in their pitching rotation. Could be`s are just that. Jays fans should know all about hype regrading pitching talent at the prospect level.

    Wil Myers, I`m sorry. he may end up being a really great hitter for the Rays for a long time. Or he may just end up being a hitter on the Rays for 6 years. He has not taken 1 hack in the “Show“.

    This trade could work out for both or neither. However I just don`t get the drool over the Rays. A) that they didn`t hurt their rotation and B) suddenly they have offense.

    The Rays have lost more this off season in terms of the here and now then they have gained. To make the argument that they are a beast in the east is to disregard how many pieces of their puzzle HAVE to fall in to place at the same time.

    Baseball has a new fan. The numbers cruncher fan., The fan that disregards what a baseball hitter or pitcher. Ex or current might say a situation is because fangraphs tells us different. Which is fair, fun and add`s a new fuel to fires on who is good,great and crappy arguments.

    So I ask why isn`t this used in the trades like this. Has history not shown that in the past trades of prospects for legit MLB players tends to lean towards the team acquiring the “pros“ in the deal the majority of time.

    Lets be honest. If D’arnuad flames out for the Jays. Or just becomes an average guy. Who really wins that trade in the end. 3 or 4 years later and the Jays still don’t know what they got from the Phillies for their TOP prospects.

    Wil Myers may end up being called up and raking like Posey right away. Or Perhaps he just become another Smoak

    • Exactly jays fans need to calm the fuck down

    • assumed success in the major leagues because of success against lesser opposition is running rampant on this site. Two years ago, the JPA talk is almost interchangeable for the TDA talk of today. Catcher, huge year with the bat, what the hell are the jays thinking not starting this guy. Now every commenter on here wants him off the team and is floored it hasn’t happened yet.

    • Fair points…

      I think that TB’s situation is a bit unique, in that they always have to plan one step ahead given their payroll restrictions.

      Two years of James Shields is great – but I think it’s worth giving up those 2 years for 6 of Myers (and likely a 14 year extension after year two!) and 6 of Ordozzi.

      TB is certainly weaker today, but their model of sustainability is certainly something to behold. Of course, all it takes is a couple of these prospects to completely bust – and they’re going to take a bit hit. But overall, I like their approach.

      • Word…

      • I think Tampa Bay gets more credit then they deserve in a trade like this. Or perhaps just the credit they do deserve actually. They have been doing it for 5 years with a good manager and smoke and mirrors. Making the right moves at the right time.

        This is reason enough for people to be blown away at the haul, steal or whatever else one wants to call this trade. However it is not reason enough to locally proclaim the Rays the winner of this deal and a contender in the east for 6 plus years.

        Truth be told. The odds that Myers is playing for a different team in 3 years with corn rows on his head is more likely then the next Stanton.

        • Perhaps there’s some misguided praise for TB – when actually it’s really a lot of confusion about KC’s intentions.

          Not sure this trade takes them to where they want to be. 80-85 wins?

          But then again, it could have a positive effect with regards to becoming a more appealing destination for free agents – i.e., it’s that “spark” that signifies a shift towards a winning mentality.

        • You’re right about the cornrows. But I think we have to acknowledge the great return the TB got by trading a pitcher they wouldn’t be able to resign in a situation where they would have less and less leverage in trade discussions for the next two years.

          If the kids don’t work out, TB still wins 85-90 games for the next 3-4 years. If they do work out, its more.

          Not saying that they’ll win the division, but they seems to keep retooling with good prospects at the best possible times.

  74. Shields has better numbers than King Felix over the past 2 years. (Now, extend it to 3 years and it’s Felix by a mile)

  75. TB doesn’t do this deal if they have budget room to keep their players long term. TDA for Dickey straight up will get the deal with the mets done.

    I’d rather sign Ejax and then trade Gose and D’Arnaud for Freddie Freeman to DH/1B.

  76. I wonder if the Royals saw something in Myers that they didn’t like and wanted to rid themselves of him while his value was high.

    That said, they’re the Royals…

  77. This trade is not that bad, KC has the best prospect pool in baseball, plus a whole bunch of guys who can put it together and be amazing who are not really prospects anymore. People always forget how valuable pitching is.

  78. This whole debate is interesting when you compare it to the Jays and RA Dickey.

    Dickey over the past three years: 9.9 WAR and an ERA+ or 129
    Shields over the past three years: 10.2 WAR and an ERA+ of 102
    Dickey signed at $5 million for 2013, Shields signed for $10 million for 2013 and a club option.

    Now, the debate with the Jays and Dickey was whether JPA and Gose were too much. Would you trade JPA and Gose for Myers, Odorizz, Leonard and Montgomery? If I’m the Jays, in a heartbeat.
    Now considering over the past three years Shields and Dickey have been kinda comparable (in fact, Dickey’s probably been better and is cheaper, though under control for one year fewer). Doesn’t it stand to reason that either we’re big time underestimating Dickey, or the Royals got fleeced in the trade? Or both? Sure Dickey’s got question marks with the knuckleball, but so does Shields with his home/away splits.
    Lets say the Royals and Rays made a good baseball trade. In order to get Dickey the Jays have to give up what? TDA, Sanchez, Nolin? Something along those lines.

    • There is no logic to your post . It is insane. How does trading for a prospect packagae compare to trading for a 40 year old knuckleballer. If you compared trading gose/jpa for what the Royals recieved, at least you still would have had logic on your side though that would not be a good comparison either/

      • What I’m saying is Shields and Dickey are comparable pitchers, both with question marks (Dickey’s are age and knuckleball, Shields is his home/away splits). So we would expect comparable prospect packages for each pitcher. JPA and Gose isn’t anywhere close to the package the Royals gave up.
        So, either the Royals got fleeced, or the JPA-Gose deal isn’t anywhere close to what the Mets should get. Or a little of both.

        • Also, Shields is entering his age 32 season, no spring chicken. And with a 91-92 mph fastball, it doesn’t take much for him to turn into a shitballer.

        • You make it seem like. Shields home/road splits are on two different ends of stick. Which is far from the case. Breaking down his road stats you see most of the damage comes from pitching in NY, BAL and TEX.

          I mean it’s not like he was pitching at new Shea stadium.

          Your next argument is that it is okay to be a 38 year old knuckleball pitcher who may have just come into his own, finally. Then a 31 year old 7 season veteran of pitching in the AL east.

          *side note: Kauffman stadium is a great pitchers park in a weaker division. But that of course should not reflect on talent you give up.

          Look there are no comparable to a trade that has happened and one that is rumor. Different teams different needs different evaluations.

          nobody knows what any of the prospects the Royals gave up are going to be. Montgomery is question marks all over. Odorizzi scouting report makes him sound more like Henderson Alvarez then Moore or Price. Myers may take a few years before he learns to hit against some really good pitching from all teams in the east.

          I don’t see question marks with Shields. At 31 years old you know what you are getting from him. The only question marks in this silly discussion is got to be Dickey and who the hell he really is at 38.

    • According Baseball Reference, Dickey’s WAR was 12.1 while Shields’ WAR was 5.1.
      By most metrics, Dickey has been the superior pitcher over the past 3 years.

      That being said, I don’t know if I’d say that this deal is a good benchmark to use. For one, it’s been pretty widely panned. If it’s an overpayment, I don’t see why that necessarily establishes the market price. Secondly, they traded for 2 years of Shields as opposed to 1 year of Dickey. That is a significant difference.

      • Wow, Fangraphs has Shields at 9.9 WAR I’m pretty sure, quite the discrepancy. That was kind of my point, though, that the Royals severely overpaid. I just get the sense that a lot of people don’t think that’s the case while at the same time thinking JPA-Gose for Dickey is an overpay.

        • It stems from the discrepency between Shields’ ERA and his peripherals. In 2010 he had an ERA of 5.18 and a FIP of 3.55.

          FWIW, I believe that fWAR is a better predictor than rWAR.

  79. Why are people comparing this trade to rumors of R.A. Dickey.

    It’s Apples and oranges.

    TDA, Sanchez, Nolin? for a 38 year old pitcher who “might” have got a “feel” for his knuckleball?

    You know what Dickey is worth in a trade. Travis Snider and Henderson Alavarez that’s who.

    • A 38 year old pitcher who probably won’t feel the effects of age because of his knuckleball, who has arguably been better and could likely be signed for cheaper, vs a pitcher who “may” “suck” when he’s not pitching in “Tampa.”
      Did ya miss the part when I said they both have question marks?
      Do double quotation marks help my argument?

      • This is the reason I usually stay out of the comments section.
        People basing arguments on maybes, mights and hopes. Among other silly things

        All players have question marks. Hell 4/5 of the Jays rotation has question marks. It would be 5 if they had a 5th. And if that 5th was Dickey it should be a collective holding of the breathe that his probably, mights and BS arguments that he has been better all come to fruition.

        I don’t get why people are comparing a this deal with a rumored one of Dickey. The Jays made their big trade. At least that one you can find comparable’s to.

        • You’re the one that made your whole argument based on maybes. I showed how Dickey’s likely been better over the past three years and pointed out how people can’t think the Royals trade is even, while at the same time JPA-Gose for Dickey is an overpay by the Jays.
          And those two sentiments seem to be the major ones I’m reading.

          • I didn’t make this argument. I have never once compared a rumored trade to this one. I am simply stating it is a silly thing to do. That I don’t see the comparable in any of it. That if I had to I would take the 31 year old proven track record over a 38 year old who discovered how to pitch while playing for the Mets in a big expansive ball park.

            There should be significant difference in expected future value. Whether the 38 year old throws a knuckelball or not.

            Tim wakefield by the way wasn’t a very productive pitcher 38+ he just was part of the Boston family

  80. “Who’s your ninja GM now”?
    A little bit of snark from Klaw?Was there a purpose behind this comment?AA’s not a ninja anymore?A little bitter cause he can’t get trade rumours out of the Jays camp?
    Fuck Off, KLaw.Get your own scoops.

    Just because other GM’s see the value of keeping things quiet,doesn’t discount AA as baseball’s true ninja.
    Imitation is the truest form of flattery.

    • i think you’re taking that tweet far too seriously.

    • Radar…So your Twittered up now?

      • Not yet Tom, my one and only fault which keeps me from being perfect, is my procrastination.And maybe my spelling.and typing skills.My knees and my eyes are a little wonky too.Short term memory is great, it makes up for a lack of long term memory.
        On second thought,I’m a fuckin mess.Time for a nap.

  81. The Jays made a great trade. The Rays did well and so did Kansas as far as I can see. It’s all good. The level of hysteria on this board over the last couple of days is almost equal to the Sam Horn Massholes after the Marlins trade. Calm down guys.

  82. Good on the Royals for tryin to improve their club. Should make the division very interesting next season. Although the Royals appear to win the trade short term, I think the Rays win long term. It would be cool to see some meaningful games bein played next sept. that doesn’t include the usual suspects. Be nice to see teams like the Royals and hopefully the Jays in the playoff hunt late next year!
    I think Alex will pull off some other deal or make a sign for pitching depth but the more I think about it there will be no Dickey at the Rogers Center.

  83. What would rangers give for price now?

  84. I think the question that needs answered is why KC moved Myers over Gordon, Butler or Hosmer. If they thought he was all that why not replace any one of these three with Myers? .The fact that he was in so many rumours might be because they feel there is a make up issue and they are selling high.

    • I heard that an established MLB guys (such as one of these) was offered, but TB requested Myers specifically due to his low salary and control.

  85. JPA nearly lead the league in past balls. Can you imagine him catching tricky Dickey and his amazing knuckleball? JP would diffinetly be on a first name basis with the folks behind home plate

  86. Anybody who says that KC is fucked is fucked themselves. They have been shit for so long, it’s time to go for it. Myers could be shit

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