Apologies for the deluge of R.A. Dickey-related posts lately– and the bad puns that inevitably go with them– but at the moment it’s one of the few things legitimately on the horizon that we’re aware of and that we can feel comfortable thinking the Jays might be in on. Or that, at the very least, has all the signs of something the club must be considering, even if much of the talk of some kind of feverish interest is bunk. And here we’ve at least got something of a different angle than passing along ever bit of speculation…

The problem with making a play for Dickey, of course, is the question of his value, which no one– not Dickey and the Mets, not the Mets and the teams inquiring on him– seems able to agree on.

The Mets want a lot, and the fact that the Rangers just missed out on Zack Greinke could make Texas more interested in moving someone like Mike Olt to get a deal done, which could escalate the market–and, as Buster Olney points out, given the Greinke deal and some of the other signings this winter, that the “extension request by Dickey looks very reasonable.”

Despite their seeming unwillingness to extend him at that rate, New York clearly knows this, as Andy Martino of the Daily News tweets that even Olt on his own won’t be enough to get the Mets to trade their Cy Young winner.

Ken Rosenthal takes a look at the difficulty of finding the right value for both sides in a piece at Fox Sports, using both the Rangers and Olt and the Jays as examples.

The Jays “definitely would say ‘no’ to” an offer of JP Arencibia and Anthony Gose in exchange for Dickey, Rosenthal says, which– despite how it may feel, on the surface– I don’t think anybody could blame the club for.

Arencibia, despite his deficiencies, is an OK receiver with a nice amount of pop, due to improve at least slightly from the atrocious .275 career on-base he sports, and who has four years of low-cost team control remaining before free agency. There’s maybe not enough value there alone to net Dickey– especially since, despite all the talk of the Mets needing a catcher, Arencibia isn’t that major an upgrade on Josh Thole, who lacks the power (career SLG is 100 points lower than JPA’s) but even including an awful 2012, walks more and generates more contact (.331 career on-base) that JP, putting him in the same neighbourhood in terms of wOBA and wRC+– but it’s a long way from nothing.

Thing is, Gose’s value is far greater than that, even. And the more I think about it, the more I understand the Jays’ reluctance to move him.

Yes, a lot of people– myself included– were pretty disappointed with what we saw from his bat, especially when he looked hopelessly over-matched in August. But September was a completely different story. Stunningly, given the way he was so completely written off as a hitter (again, including myself), Gose posted a .328 wOBA and 105 wRC+ in 97 PA over the season’s final month.

Colby Rasmus, by comparison, had just one month– his torrid June– where he outpaced Gose’s September in either metric.

Granted, we don’t exactly get the clearest picture by comparing numbers broken into small, monthly samples– or by putting too much stock in September numbers– but the comparison of the club’s two CFs is, again, pretty stunning when you do so. Rasmus posted pitiful wRC+ numbers of 36 and 59 in August and September. Those were bested in both months by Gose, who– lost as he looked in August– posted a 41, to go along with September’s 105.

Add in his defensive value and value on the base paths, and Gose was practically Michael Bourn for a month.

Bourn in 2012: .274/.348/.391, .326 wOBA, 104 wRC+, 10.0 BB%, 22.0 K%, 22.5 UZR/150
Gose in Sept.: .262/.347/.393, .328 wOBA, 105 wRC+, 11.3 BB%, 23.7 K%, 55.3 UZR/150*

* Actually his full season number, and only for his limited innings in CF.

Obviously the UZR number is completely warped by the sample size, and again, the September stats are hardly something we can just prorate over 600 plate appearances and call an expectation, but the potential is there, and for a guy with six years of dirt cheap control ahead of him, those are some eerily similar numbers (yes, over a tiny sample) to a player the free market is about to value in the neighbourhood of $75-million or above.

Again, I’m not suggesting Gose would be able to provide that kind of value over the course of a season, especially as a 22-year old, but even with the atrocious August as a counterbalance, Gose was worth 0.6 wins, per FanGraphs, in 2012. Prorated over 600 plate appearances and that’s 1.9 wins– as compared to 1.4 for Rasmus in 2012 and 0.8 the year previous.

Point is, Gose just doesn’t have to be that much better with the bat than he already is to provide a staggering crapload of cheap value for the Jays.

Now, Rasmus looks much better when you use DRS instead of UZR (in 2012 his 7 DRS ranked fourth among qualified CF, while he was tenth by UZR at -0.6), and there’s no question in my mind that his bat has a higher ceiling– we’ve seen it, both in June’s .376 wOBA, and in the 2010 season, when he posted a .369 wOBA for St. Louis– but he’s also about to enter his second arbitration year, meaning that, barring an extension, he’ll be a free agent following the 2014 season.

Regular readers will know how much of a Rasmus backer I have been– and I still do believe it’s possible he can put it together on a consistent basis, though I’m less confident now than I was a year, or even six months ago. You’ll probably also remember how hard we were on Gose around here this summer, too. But I just don’t see how it’s possible not to conclude that, especially factoring cost and length of control, Gose is a tremendously more valuable asset for the club

In fact, I’d be much more comfortable trading Rasmus than Gose, even for a one-year, “win now” starter like Dickey. I might even be able to argue that keeping Gose is preferable to keeping Travis d’Arnaud, too– given the dearth of CF outside of the low minors with Marisnick gone, and the fact that Arencibia is cheaply controlled for longer, and that the system has some options closer behind him.

Do six years of Rasmus and Arencibia match up more closely to three of Dickey (assuming an extension) than ten of Gose and Arencibia? I absolutely think so– and, frankly, I wouldn’t do the deal if Gose was involved. But given what we’ve been hearing, I have a hard time believing the Mets feel the same way– or if not him, d’Arnaud.

Rosenthal, for his part, says he’s “starting to think that all of the trade conversations might just be an exercise in futility.” I tend to agree, and the latest from Martino doesn’t do a whole lot to change my opinion:

Indeed, if I was a betting man (and I am), I’d be banking on him staying with the Mets.

Much of that also has to do with Dickey’s own red flags, too: the lack of an elite track record beyond 2012; the fickle trick pitch he’s making his money with; his age; and the league and ballpark he was succeeding in last year.

The longer I’ve thought about this deal, the more I’m finding myself comfortable with such issues. It makes more than enough sense, I think, to believe he was better last year because he’s finally got the feel for the knuckleball he lives on, and because that’s the pitch he throws, the concerns about his age are nothing close to the same as any other pitcher we might consider. Most importantly, Dickey was quite good in the two years preceding 2012, and if that’s the Dickey you end up acquiring, for a team like the Jays who now need every extra win they can get, I think it’s absolutely OK.

But for the cost the Mets are reportedly asking?

I see why Anthopoulos would salivate over the possibility of adding him, and I see why a team like the Jays might want to get into a staring contest with the Mets, hoping they may blink, but it’s not like Dickey is a “Cy Young winner” in the same way Justin Verlander is. It’s not as though having his name on a trophy washes away all of his warts or question marks.

I think he could be a four win pitcher again for the Jays next year, which would be absolutely huge in their pursuit of their first playoff appearance in 20 years, but if you’re giving up all the value that a player like Gose or d’Arnaud can bring, you’ve got to believe that a lesser pitcher with a few extra years of cheap control might make far more sense– and maybe it makes more sense to wait, with more of those kinds of arms coming available in season, once it becomes less completely toxic in the marketplace for brands to raise the white flag.

Or maybe they don’t even need to wait so long: Justin Masterson, to cite one example, has an extra year of control remaining and has been worth as many wins, per FanGraphs (uh… Baseball Reference, not so much), over the last three years.

Do the sorts of players we’re talking about with Dickey not start that conversation, too?

I mean… really, the biggest issue for the Jays isn’t so much improving on the two wins you can probably (optimistically?) expect out of JA Happ in the fifth spot in the rotation. Rather, it’s improving on the weekly shitcannings you can expect out of Chad Jenkins the second he has to join the rotation to replace anyone who needs to miss time.

It ought to be possible to accomplish that without giving up either Gose or d’Arnaud– shit, it can be accomplished with just a little bit more money, and should be easily sellable to the Rogers suits we’re supposed to believe the Jays now have to tiptoe around after the company finally made something resembling a major, good faith investment in the club (the reported offer to Jason Grilli says hi!). So, no matter how much someone like Bob Elliott wants us to believe the Jays see Dickey as a true number one and might be willing to do something ridiculous to land him, for me, for all the sense it makes, it just can’t possibly make enough unless the price comes down.

And that’s kinda exactly while we’re still taking about it, I guess.

Comments (131)

  1. First!!!

  2. Exactly.

    Couldn’t agree with this post more.

    Except I think the Mets will trade Dickey this year. I can’t see them competing for a couple years so a 2 year extension for Dickey won’t help them much. Maybe it’s a deadline move.

    • But then don’t the Mets risk losing value if he pitches worse for the first half of 2013?

      • Yeah i guess, but every team risks losing value with every player if they play poorly.

        If they’re that concerned his performance isn’t sustainable I’m sure other teams are concerned too and the trade offers now will reflect that.

        If he keeps putting up sub 3 ERAs they will maybe get their monster asking price.

      • Also, teams who acquire him (and choose not to extend) don’t get draft pick compensation if he’s dealt mid-year.

        Value drops off huge, there.

  3. For me, trading Gose is more about depth – if Rasmus gets injured then you’re looking at Davis or Sierra as a starter. Ugh.

    • Depth for 2013 I guess but that’s not why you keep him.

      You keep him for the ridiculous upside potential and the pretty solid floor for his value based on his speed and defense.

      At worst Gose is Peter Bourjos.
      A good chance he’s Michael Bourne.
      At best he’s a healthy Carl Crawford.

      I’m not giving that up too easy.

    • Bonifacio can play CF, so not really.

  4. Touche Stoeten. I like Dickey, but your point regarding Verlander is valid. Dickey is a different kind of Cy winner and although the last few years haven’t been bad for him you’ve got to question what you’re giving up for this guy.

    Certainly don’t want to get into a pissing match with the Rangers for him.

  5. longest post i’ve ever seen on here, centred around stats the author himself discounts as unreliable.

    whats the fucking point? thanks for coming out on a sunday. i guess. stoetsy.

  6. I agree. I would never trade JPA and Gose. I’d trade JPA and lesser prospects and if the Mets say no, I’d be completely comfortable with going after another started and on the FA market. By the way, you need to sell t-shirts on here. Your maximizing value on FB et al but you need to sell t-shirts. It’s a branding issue and I believe this site is the best baseball site out there and it’s not even close for competition. The posts on here are intelligent, funny at times and brawling is okay too. I say AA does a deal with a couple of weeks.

  7. Trading Dickey would be a great way for the Mets to address some pretty glaring holes on their roster (take a look at their ‘depth’ chart for a laugh) – but in the end it’s hard to imagine that they won’t extend him. I get that they’ve got some financial concerns, but what Dickey is reportedly asking for is entirely reasonable.

    Any team would love to have an RA Dickey but I wouldn’t trade Arencibia + Gose for him either. Nor would I trade d’Arnaud in a 1 for 1 swap. Arencibia + a Sierra or someone like that sure…but no way would the Mets do that. Tough deal to make.

    • He doesn’t fit their timeline,

      Mets are looking at a few years before they can really hope to be competitive with the Nats, Braves and Phillies. Dickey is already 38.

      Unless he’s tossing that knuckler into his mid forties he’s more valuable to teams competing in 2013 -14.

      • Agreed – Mets will be looking to contend in a year to two at minimum, once some of their young pitching begins to mature – I think that fact alone suggests Dickey will be moved this winter. My guess is this whole situation will end up like the Darvish one again, Jays will be right there until the end but some team will cave to the Mets exorbitant asking price.

    • I would do Rasmus and JPA, but I think NY says no.

      • Why would you even think about that? You would trade two starting players for a pitcher that couldn’t even play properly in the Rogers Center? I like Dickey but the most I would go is Sierra and Arencibia/Rasmus. One starting CenterFielder and one ready to-go corner fielder.

        • Starters, sure, not quality players though. They both have a chance of becoming something more then a bottom tier starter, but, it isn’t likely.

  8. The price for Dickey is probably a bit too steep for the Jays right now. They just need a RH bat to platoon with Lind (since an outright replacement isn’t likely) and some depth starters better than Jenkins.

  9. Can we just sign Villanueva and/or Marcum once and for and stop debating which guy to trade.

  10. If you are actually looking for depth, send a reliever out to LA Dodgers for one of the 8 pitchers they presently own.

  11. ” It’s not as though having his name on a trophy washes away all of his warts or question marks.”

    I think Dickey has question marks, but if you take 2010-2012 Dickey I don’t think he has shown many warts, if that makes any sense. What I mean is that there really isn’t a glaring sign that suggests he will fall off a cliff and that there is some major weakness in his game. He may not be able to sustain the k/9 he had last year but other than that there isn’t a major reason to assume he can’t keep playing at the same pace.

    I also think that many commentators exaggerate the gap between his 2010 and 2011 compared to his 2012. I would even venture to say that he was pretty much elite all three of those years, or at least very, very good (better than every Blue Jay except Johnson’s 2010, better than all three of Greinke’s last years).

    Maybe it is just my gambling nature, maybe it is just that I think the Jays’ best chance is in the next two to three years, but I think AA should do what it takes to get Dickey, barring some ridiculous price. Based on this I think JPA+Gose on the condition of an extension is worth it, although it is basically gambling that Gose will not turn out or that Dickey is enough to take them over the top. The ideal trade for AA would be to try and switch Bonifacio in instead of Rasmus or Gose, and maybe sweeten the deal with a bull pen arm or prospects like Sierra or Cooper. I think he has the pieces to get it done.

    It could be a very, very, very good move to get Dickey. If any one of the 2010, 2011, or 2012 Dickeys show up for 2013 then the Jays playoff chances increase dramatically. Even lesser versions of those seasons over 2013, 2014, and 2015 would be immensely valuable to the Jays, especially with the chances of Johnson leaving a very possible reality.

    • I agree with a lot of what you’re saying especially about his seasons. If you look at his peripherals they’re pretty constant except with the K/9 in 2012 that spiked. While it was undoubtedly great for his FIP it didn’t change the results that dramatically from 2010. The biggest difference for me is just the number of innings he pitched this time around.

      • even then though 208 or even 174 innings are still quite telling. I don’t know for sure, but I would imagine that the reason why he only had 174 innings in 2010 was because he didn’t make the rotation off the start and spent at least one game in the pen, or he missed 2-3 starts for whatever reason.

        Anyways I think Dickey is ridiculously underrated. Stoeten referred to his “trick pitch” but that really isn’t fair for someone who throws 5 pitches, relying mainly on his two types of knuckleballs. Anyways his 80mph knuckleball is one hell of a pitch and has never been seen before in major league baseball.

        • Have to agree about the trick pitch comment. It’s still a pitch whether it’s a knuckleball or a curve or a change up. All of those pitches are designed to fool a hitter. If players have a hard time making contact in a serious way then that’s all that should matter. At least with his knuckleball, you know if he loses a mph or two off of it that it won’t cause him serious problems. Pitchers that primarily throw heat can’t say the same thing.

          • +1 to jimmynmu.

            I get how good Gose is or can be. But pitching is what gets teams to the playoffs and we could do with another frontline pitcher. And he’s a knuckleballer so bonus. If AA can swing this I will be very happy.

  12. No this is not fantasy island, however, Capuano, or Harang. would give you two solid #3s, that you can trust… with an option. They are both around 7 million a year. More in tune with pricing that you use to exist prior to this inflated values.

    As well the pitchers give you two year window only , which would allow your prospects in A and by 2015 Hutchinson and Drabek and a couple of the kids will be here.

    Read Drabek was beginning to the throw the ball.

  13. Ok really though, the only option has to be a Ted Lilly-Gibby reunion…

  14. Lets put this rumour to bed, please!?

  15. Way too early for any of us to have judged Gose on the negative side. Give him 300 at bats and a second season, and we’ll have a much better idea of his stick.

  16. His August numbers were shitty and his September numbers were good.
    That just indicates that September stats shouldn’t be used to evaluate a young player.

  17. This has been one of the most exciting off seasons, not just as a Jays fan but for the MLB. I can’t believe how the landscape has changed in the divisions so far! As for Dickey, the Rangers seem like the best fit and I don’t see them not adding starting pitching and at-least one outfielder. Olt + Ogando for Dickey is a steep price but I think would get it done. Dickey actually has a better ERA (2.95) than Greinke over the past 3 years but obviously age is the issue.

  18. I think it’s more likely that the Jays make minor moves and then hold on to prospects to make a deal before the trade deadline. That way they will have more info on their prospects and a better read as to what this team is actually capable of as composed.

    Good to have a few extra cards to play.

    • You excited for the Bisons this year or what?

      • The Bisons will be a bit more exciting once some of the pitching works its way through the system. But the Bisons should still have a decent team to watch this year, barring additional trades.

        The Mets teams were horrendously boring to watch.

      • … Bisons = draught beer poured fresh and served to you in your seat (vendors with a ‘jetpack’) in a real ball park with real grass

  19. Gose and his 6 years, are more than worth keeping. With inflationary pressures for quality defensive CF on the climb, we know he presently as good as Ben Revere.

    Better get a #3 pitcher , sure we fantasize for great pitching, choosing Dickey, my preference if salary considerations were not part of the equation, than I would take Cliff Lee.

    That is not the case…..

  20. Will Marcum take a one year deal. Never wanted him here witht he other arms available but after seeing Blanton, Guthrie, Mccarthy gettign multiple years I’m willing to take any decent pitcher on a one year deal and using them or Happ in a swingman role until one of our arms go down to injury. Carlos V is another possibilty give him the fifth spot on a one year deal, if he sucks put him in the swing man role and he can give up the thought of starting and put Happ in a spot if someone gets injured.
    I think we could have done this with Feldman not ideal price but sign him for 6 million and start him in the 5 hole in the rotation if he struggled then you put Happ in the starting rotaion or when someone gets hurt.I want real depth of the 6th guy who can push Happ into the swing man role. Whoever they get on a minor league deal I wont feel comfortably with and don’t feel that comfortable with Happ… he wasn’t very good in the NL.

  21. it’s a tough call but Cy Young pitchers aren’t cheap. I can’t see how the Mets don’t pull the trigger if JPA and Gose are the offer. If it’s my call, I say do it if you get an extension on Dickey.

  22. A good read. Thanks for the insight!

  23. I hope we sign Scott Kazmir to a minor league contract. Heard teams were interested and he was throwing well in international ball. He could be a nice fill-in if one of our SPs go down. At this point, I don’t see many FA pitchers taking 1-year deals thanks to the high demand.

    • a minor league contract sounds good, although I also heard he basically can’t throw anything over 85 mph anymore, not sure how accurate that is.

      • I read somewhere thats he’s somewhere in the 90′s again.

      • Yeah I heard he was hitting 94 and sitting at 91 – 92.

        If that’s accurate I’d be all overtaking a flyer on him.

        I bet he gets a major league contract though with the ridiculous need for pitching around the league.

  24. I’ve also been a Rasmus booster since his arrival but even so I gotta think he would be the smarter choice to move over Gose. I think Gose is the higher risk commodity for next year, and Colby has a better shot at fringe star output. However, Gose’s best case scenario ceiling is higher (if crazy unlikely ) but what makes the difference for me is the floor, where I believe Gose still adds good value even if he is utter shit with the stick, whereas Rasmus value falls apart if all he has is good defense and so-so arm and speed.

  25. Mike Olt suddenly seems pretty available, huh.

    Perhaps his value isn’t as high as it was a few months ago & the Rangers want to sell high.

    All this Dickey stuff will hopefully come to a conclusion in the next 2 weeks.

  26. Rasmus plus Arencibia plus Lincoln for Dickey? Is that what everybody wants to risk. or trading for a solid #3 and keep your prospects for the trade deadline.

  27. It’s definitely a tough decision for AA to make. On one hand you have the years of control that Gose and JPA bring, not to mention the ceiling of someone like Gose. Give him a full season of playing time and you could possibly get nearly the same WAR as you got from Dickey last year at his peak (BR numbers). Maybe not in 2013 but probably sooner rather than later.

    On the other hand, trading for him now goes a long way to bridging the gap the Jays have internally. And this team has quite the gap right now. With their best prospects 2 to 3 years away and their remaining depth in guys like Drabek and Hutchison still recovering from injury, having one more veteran arm in the rotation for 3 years is a fantastic luxury. There’s legitimate concerns about pretty much every starter going into the season even if there’s significant upside as well. Let’s face it, the Jays had to make one trade already to patch holes in their rotation because they just weren’t going to get what they needed in the free agent market at reasonable prices. Trading for Dickey certainly offers them the same chance again and the chance to extend him at bargain prices while they are at it. He’s probably not among the top 10 starters in the game over the last 3 years but he’s just outside of that group. If Morrow and Johnson were to live up to their potential for the entire year along with someone like Dickey you’d have a pitching staff that would likely be unmatched in the AL even by Tampa.

    • Yup Dickey puts the Jays over the top. But facing this tough decision I am not sure if AA will pull the trigger. He is loyal to JPA and Gose, and Dickey is an unusual player. I kind of hope he says “fuck it” and gets it done though. I would take 2-3 years of the Jays as contenders over 10 years of Gose and JPA any day. Bonifacio and Rasmus are similar enough to make the move hurt a lot less too, not to mention d’Arnaud and Buck. Suppose Rasmus has a good 2013 and we extend him, losing Gose all of a sudden becomes a lot less of a hit.

      • I bet AA is dying for just a little bit more wiggle room in the payroll department. If he could expand it by even another $5-7 million for 2013, the team’s situation would look even better in 2014 while solidifying 2013′s team.

        With that money he trades for Dickey even if it costs him a little more than he would like to pay in terms of prospects. Turns around and trades Buehrle to someone else for depth or near mlb ready prospects to replenish some of what he lost in the Dickey trade.

        Then uses the net $10-12 million (Buehrle’s $10 million + $5-7 million in bonus Rogers Bucks – $5 million for Dickey) and signs a free agent to a slightly back loaded deal.

        This maintains your rotations quality overall and frees up the Jays from the burden of Buehrle’s $19 million contract in 2014.

        With Hutchison and Drabek coming back for 2014 he’d then have a Tampa like situation where he would have an excess of pitching in Morrow, Dickey, Romero, free agent X, Hutchison, Drabek, Happ + the money to extend Johnson. Any holes that developed could be filled via trade from a group that included Romero, Free Agent X, Hutchison, Drabek or Happ.

  28. I think the Mets trade Dickey. Doubtful they contend in the next three years — his value is at its highest. I think the Jays should do what’s needed to make this deal happen. I understand the years of control etc …. but that doesn’t mean much unless those years of control add up to some post-season play. Dickey gets us to the dance — cheap years of control make your accountants happy. I know which side I’m on.

  29. Wonder if AA could expand the deal further like he did with the Marlins. If the Mets were to throw in Niese to go along with Dickey, would anyone feel amiss in giving up say Gose, JPA Happ and say another mid level prospect? With the caveat that Sanchez, Syndergaard and d’Arnaud not be included.

    • i think I just saw the plane from Fantasy Island, were you on it/? Not going to happen, nice try, they would want d’ armaid. and one of Dunedin Duo, plus goes, plus

      • Well I don’t think it would be a huge stretch if you start with the premise that JPA+Gose is an overpay for Dickey. Right off the bat there’s an imbalance. Adding Niese to the scales tips the imbalance back to the Jays, throwing in Happ and another prospect evens it out. Hell if you value Gose and Happ highly enough you could argue that it would be a great trade for the Mets going forward because if you believe in Happ’s FIP numbers then there’s not even that much of a difference between Niese and Happ to begin with.

        • I like where you’re going with that, only problem I see is that there are very few of those massive player trades and we’ve already seen quite a few of them in the last 6 months so I’m wondering if some GM’s are reluctant to keep expanding all the pieces involved.

          Then again, maybe this is just the way the market is moving, bigger contracts, bigger trades. I mean, Jays pulled off 2 massive multi-plyaer trades within several months time and a lot of teams seem to be willing to engage in multi-team talks

    • I love that.

    • Lol wow if only u were the Mets GM

    • So then Romero moves to the bullpen?

      • Was thinking he could turn around and flip Buehrle for prospects or more depth pieces to replenish what he gave up. Getting out from under his contract for 2014 and 2015 would mean so much to the Jays going forward.

    • Niese is much better than Happ and is under control for pretty cheap over the next 5 years. It’d cost quite a bit to get Niese. Gose/JPA/Happ+mid-level is not even close to enough for Dickey/Niese.

      Fuck, I’d have to figure Niese’s value is comparable if not greater than Dickey’s

      • Again it depends on what numbers you want to use. If you’re a believer in FIP being the true measure of a pitcher’s results then Niese had one very good season in 2011 and good seasons in 2010 and 2012. If you’re going to measure him that way then you can also look at Happ’s 2012 and 2010 FIP and see that he’s not far off from two of Niese’s three seasons. Also there is Niese’s BABIP to consider. In 2012 his best year by straight ERA, ERA+, and rWAR his BABIP was 30 points lower than his career average. If it were to bounce back to normal levels like 2011 and 2010, he’s not nearly as sexy.

    • With the demand so high for Dickey, adding in Niese would mean the Jays would have to clean house on the farm.

  30. I think DIckey is a really good pitcher – and has been solid for the last 3 years, and exceptional last season, but why is it all about him. I get that the Jays want to keep Gose, and im a huge fan of D’arnaud. That leaves JPA, Rasmus and Bonifacio all as solid trade chips, who if lost would do little to hurt the team. We could probably get a reliable 2-4 starter in a number of ways. With all the Dickey talks, did people forget that we still need some one to platoon with Lind at DH. I guess we will just use Bonifacio and Rajai
    Some deals i think would make sense.
    JPA and Bonifacio for Mat Latos
    JPA for Ogando and a bullpen arm
    Gose for Wade MIley
    JPA and Ramsus for Jarrod Parker
    On another note why don’t we send in some offers for Morneau…hoping the Twins will pay some of his $.
    Wouln’t young have made sense for us as a DH? If Texas pays most of his contract, and he is still a good hitter. Why didn’t AA explore that oppourtunity?

    • People want Dickey because he fills a need that the Jays need if they want to be serious world series contenders. That is dominant pitching. Lind’s platoon partner is easy enough to fill in comparison. Sierra, Davis, or Bonifacio could be Lind’s platoon partner if he continues to not be able to hit lefties. Plus the Jays are already offensive heavy, of course they could always use more, but pitching is the greater need at this time.

      I hope the Dickey situation is solved soon, I think the Mets are leaning towards keeping him just to make teams that want him more desperate.

    • Young has been a very nice player for a long time but he’s pretty much done now.
      Doubt that AA had any interest at any price.

  31. Also would you guys do Gose for Dickey straight up? Or JPA and colby for Dickey.
    I would do both…leave your answers below

    • Yes to Gose for Dickey. Even Gose+JPA.

      JPA+Rasmus I like less just because it leaves a hole at CF that Gose isn’t quite ready to fill and Bonifacio isn’t as good of a hitter as Rasmus. I am cautious about this one because I think Rasmus will begin to hit, so I don’t know if I like that trade. It would require an extension for sure. I guess I am in the camp that believes Rasmus is more valuable than Gose, at least for the Jays current situation.

      • so in your theory buck is our starter… oy vey – there is no way you can think d’arnaud is ready to step in without ever seeing an MLB at bat. Gose stepping in for Rasmus is by far less of a risk then flipping jpa in any deal.

  32. No Dickey will cost more,,, my question is there not someone in the American League that we can trade with … and achieve the same goal.

  33. Nice article and pretty much similar thought of alot of the fandom I think – jury’s not out on Gose yet.

    I still think a lot of this Dickey speculation is to be undetermined until some of the other second tier pitchers sign. With Greinke out of the way, it’s pretty much up to the other big clubs to fulfil their pitching needs – LAA, Det, Texas, etc still in the market to upgrade. Considering a number of contending teams have gone the trade route, that left a lot of those pitchers available and the remaining trade options could come at a heftier price – Dickey in this case

    I imagine we might see a big drop off for some time before Christmas, before the secondary market picks up in the New Year. AA has plenty of time to strike up new options, but as others have said, it really is a fun time to speculate and watch the landscape change, especially when the Jays have some sway in things now

  34. CR and JPA for Dickey…no Gose. But, I rather spend money and keep CR, at least until the trade deadline. But there’s lots of options for AA and he knows it, including my suggestion of adding payroll.

  35. Also FWIW Reynolds just signed with the Indians for 6 mil – probably takes them out of the market for Youk, I imagine Youk now signs with the Yanks.

  36. Great post expressing a sentiment I’ve had for a long time. Nice to see this angle explored.

    Next article I’m waiting on: who is the real Brett Lawrie? The slugger with the great eye from 2011, or the hot headed hacker from 2012?

    • I’d love to see Lawrie paired up with Molitor in spring training so he can learn to knock off the excessive bat waggling in the box. Molitor was the epitomy of quiet in the box, and expended all of his energy simply on the swing, something that I think would benefit Lawrie trmendously. Did you see how many times, after he had been through the league once, pitchers kept him waiting and waggling for extended periods of time to disrupt his rythym, which is a lot easier to do when you’ve got a ‘busy’ bat?

  37. I think my biggest problem with trading Gose has nothing to do with potential, or anything quantifiable. It’s simply that players like him are so damn fun to watch that I get bummed out when I consider not being able to watch him play on a daily basis at some point next season.

    • Dickey would be fucking awesome to watch too though.

      I have more faith in Colby’s bat compared to Gose’s bat. Colby has put in a full season of quality hitting in the bigs before and had a better minor league record than Gose. I need to see more before I will believe that Gose can hit at a major league level, but I know its quite possible that he can.

      • +1 Rasmus has more potential than gose IMO and that’s why AA targets a lower level pitcher in a trade and keeps both

      • Hell yeah he would. No arguments there, but unlike you, I think I would part with Rasmus a little easier then Gose. You’re right that Rasmus has more potential in his bat, but I’m not completely sold that he is going to be able to make regularly year in, year out. At least with Gose you know that his defense, arm and base running ability aren’t going anywhere any time soon. Any value he adds with the bat is just gravy.

        Don’t get me wrong, I don’t think it’s clear cut, this is something I’m still kind of the fence about because I’ve been doing my best to believe in Rasmus since the Jays acquired him but in only one more year if Colby doesn’t come through we’re going to have to admit he’s another Lind.

  38. Great post Stoeten. I agree with everything said.

  39. No! No! No!. This Dickey guy has had one great year in 10 seasons, The rest of the time he was marginal or worse. The list of guys who have had one good year goes on and on. Dickey isn’t worth any of the players (JPA, Gose or TD’A) individually. I’d hate to see another Michael Young for Esteben Loaiza type deal. The Twins, Brewers, Rangers and Mariners had no problem letting Dickey walk away . Let the Rangers lose Olt for him and we’ll see how smart the Rangers really are in 2 or 3 years.

  40. Gose, TDA and the Lansing pair are not going anywhere. Just look at the contracts being handed out. The life blood of the Blue Jays, and maybe 25 or so other teams, is going to be draft, develop and have several young, impactful, cost controlled home grown players on the major league roster. Nicolino and Hech are gone. Would be shocked if they raided the top end of the farm system any more in this off season.

  41. Is there any chance we’ve all been duped and the Jays have very minimal interest in trading for Dickey, if at all?

    If we believe what we were told, a month or so ago Alex Anthopoulos inquired on Josh Johnson. He was told that the price would be too prospects – Adeiny Hechavarria and Justin Nicolino. According to him, he was unwilling to a deal of two, talented, controllable players for a year of one great player, even though he thinks he can extend said great player.

    Now there’s rumours that the Jays are trying to trade for RA Dickey. By the same logic, an Arencibia/Gose package is quite similar to a Hechavarria/Nicolino a package. It’s a trade of one low ceiling, flawed player who has value because of position and a standout tool (Arencibia’s power, Hechavarria’s defense) plus a younger, higher upside player.

    All of that is to say that I think there’s no chance the Jays trade Arencibia and Gose for RA Dickey. I mean, sure, they may have inquired, and there’s obviously a price they’d pay for him. But if we hear rumours of two good young players being offered for Dickey, I think we have precedence to know that’s very unlikely, despite the changing landscape the Jays are now operating in.

  42. Glad you’ve come around on Gose. I would hate to see him go. The way he can turn a single into a triple (stealing bases), and turn a double into a triple with his speed. He has so much potential

  43. AA isn’t interested in competing for 2-3 years only. He wants to be competitive indefinitely.
    I applaud his vision. Anyone who is content with short term over long term probably runs up a large credit card bill and only pays the minimum monthly.
    AA told us (and the Mets) last week nothing is imminent-meaning(I believe) he will not engage in a bidding war for Dickehheimer or he is not willing to part with a ridiculous package for him. Prudent.
    We do need starting depth (or a #1). Can JJ regain his form and be our #1 this year?
    Will Cletus pull his head out of his ass long enough to be productive all season? JPA doesn’t have to be an all-star(he is very valuable to this franchise in many, many ways).
    I won’t be surprised if AA just picks up some relatively cheap SP depth. I also won’t be surprised if he trades JPA and a prospect for Dickey-but only if the Mets relent and meet AA’s terms. In AA I trust.
    1985 to 1993 were amazing years in Blue Jay land(well maybe not the last week of’87) and I’m looking forward to something similar beginning now. Enjoy the ride.

    • My attempt to answer the Cletus question: No, his head will always be up his ass. Trade him and JPA for Dickey.

  44. Pretty good read Stoeten. You put out some good arguements there, and like you said the only reason you pick up Dickey is to protect your starting rotation with JA Happ. I kinda wonder however, if AA doesn’t just wait a few weeks and then put a offer infront of Carlos V. for something a bit less than starter money, on a one year contract. Plus you may have Starsky and Hutch come back potentially to AAA after the all-star break so why pull the trigger on a guy who is going cost you big time in prospects.

    • Hutch wont be back til 2014 and Starsky wasnt doing too well before he went down. The guy needs lots of work at AAA.

  45. Kind of a worthless radio call-in question, but:

    Would you’ve done Marisnick and JPA for Dickey?

    • I would. Just the distance from the majors, not to mention the increasing questions about his contact abilities would make me more willing to part with Marisnick than Gose or Rasmus.

  46. Regardless if this trade get’s made I’ll be disappointed if come spring training
    JP Strikethreebia is still behind the dish for the Jays. Yes he has power, but his strikeouts, poor defense, and complete inability to get on base are nauseating. Buck is great with a staff, the last time Romero was relevant he was the guy blocking his curveballs. Buck excelled in Rogers last time he was here. Lastly and most importantly I think D’arnaud is ready but I can agree that maybe a few more months in AAA are needed. If and when he comes up we can send down Whiteside and let the D’arnaud era begin. Free Travis.

    Cue BFF and other JP lovers to extoll his virtues….

    • Should add for those who can’t read between the lines that Strikethreebia (with or without help) should be dealt for a pitcher,.not unlike the much discussed Dickey Deal.

  47. Uh oh.

    Rays have traded Wade Davis AND James Shields to the Royals. The return must include Wil Myers and be massive.

    • ful’asheeit

    • Great trade for the Rays going forward. Might hurt them a touch this year but they’ll be more balanced imo. 6 years of the 2nd best hitting prospect in the minors or 1A with Taveras and 6 years of a possible mid rotation starter in Ordorizzi. Not too shabby.

      At least the Royals are no longer a suitor for Dickey, though by taking Shields out of the mix it might put other teams onto Dickey.

  48. nope Bret is true

  49. 3B Leonard, RHP Ordozzi, LHP Montgomery

  50. Bret I apologize…

  51. Watch the Royals this year.

  52. I appreciate the good reasoning and well defended opinion. I found it thought provoking and ultimately convincing. Thanks.

    I think AA also is thinking long term — he has said time after time he wants a perennial contender and that means young good controllable assets.

    I keep wondering about Rasmus plus Jimenez plus Davis. Or something like that. 2 or 3 of the Jay’s top 10 in positions the Mets need. But I’m just not clear enough on what Alderson is asking for. Mind to call him for us?

  53. Here is my crazy trade, Rasmus, JPA and Nessy for Santana, Dickey and Michael Fulmer. You pick up two good pitchers Dickey recently and Santana if he can return to 2010 form. and you get a good prospect in Michael Fulmer you are really offering mets 25 million in salary relief which is why you get them to throw in Fulmer. if Mets are not completely happy throw in a PTBNL. heck throw in Alford, thus you are giving up a starting catcher, cf, and throwing in a troubled outfield prospect who is years away and a future backup.

  54. Call this going out on a whim, but going by Gose’s full minor league and major league track record, its absolutely crystal clear to me that he can’t hit. Rasmus was atrocious in Aug/Sep, even my grandmother was a better hitter than him during that time, so its a weak comparison at best. Besides, anyone can have a decent month. Look at what Sierra did when he first came up! Long term stats tells the entire story on Gose, as they do for anyone else. And that story is downright ugly – he’ll pile up a ton of strikeouts without reaching base enough to justify his blazing speed. So I say trade him asap, while the perception is that he has good prospect value. It doesn’t have to be for Dickey, but a respectable starting pitcher would be ideal (as I’m sure most agree). Otherwise we’re bound to see him struggle again and again with the bat once the 2013 campaign starts, and eventually everyone will realize that just because he is young relative to his level of competition, it doesn’t mean he’ll magically “learn” how to hit. He’s a career pinch runner or defensive replacement on any championship calibre team like Det, Tex, SF, NY, Ana, Atl, etc. And that’s what the Jays are striving to become, no?

  55. One thing you don’t mention is that Gose’s main value is derrived from speed which is duplicated throughout the roster with Reys, Davis, Bonifacio and to a lesser extent Rasmus and Lawrie. Its worth considering that what Rasmus brings – basically equal defense for all intensive purposes, a better bat and much needed power – is more important considering outside of EE and Jose, this team isn’t loaded with sluggers.

    I would also ask this: if Danulad or Gose + Rasmus or JPA is the starting point for any package, can’t the Jays do better than Dickey? I like that you mentioned Masterson, I think the Jays should be going after him and Kipnis, who stole 31 bases and has a bit of pop, he would be a huge upgrade going forward over whoever we have to play second.

  56. No way Gose gets traded. Right now, at worst case, the Jays have a gifted fielder with blazing speed who might not be able to hit consistently. So, a Brett Gardner or something like that, although I think Gose has a higher top-speed, while Gardner is probably a hair faster to first.

    The thing about Gose is that we don’t really know what he’s capable of offensively. Although it’s extremely unlikely he’ll be a Ken Griffey-type power-hitter, last September, he looked awfully capable of being an extra-base machine who can leg out a lot of infield hits. Basically, we saw flashes of superstar talent.

    So, if Alex is a smart GM, I don’t see him trading away a potential superstar (who is incidentally controllable and also cheap) for an RA Dickey – or anyone of his profile. Not to mention, Gose is now the #1 outfield depth guy not on the active roster, and if he keeps on improving like he did last year, he will almost certainly be major league-ready by mid season.

    Let’s just say things could get interesting if July comes and Colby is still hitting .220 while Gose is tearing it up in Buffalo.

  57. Although Dickey would be nice i understand if AA wants to keep Gose and Rasmus. But why don’t we trade JP to one of the many teams needing a catcher (Oakland, Texas, Tampa, LAD etc.) for a mid to late starter. A guy like Chad Billingsley or Alexi Ogando is a solid upgrade over Happ, and more importantly happ is a solid upgrade over Chad Jenkins as that starter for extra assurance when some one hits the DL. Meanwhile JPA to Buck isn’t a huge downgrade, and gives D’arnaud more oppourtunity at a big league level. And the Jays can sacrifice some offense for pitching, considering our top 6 looks like this:

  58. The way i see it is that the Mets are just “playing the game” and trying to mazimize their return..Are the Mets even ready to compete for something big? Last i heard, they were a couple or a few years out? If thats the case, what is the actual point for them to re-sign Dickey, pretty much to lose or trade him away when they are ready to compete?

    I think they are just trying to start some sort of “bidding war” and i hope that it doesn’t bite them in the ass (not a mets fan by any stretch but if they wait too long, they are only shooting themselves in the foot). What do you get for Dickey at the deadline with half a season remaining on a contract that you cant seem to come to terms on now?

    I highly doubt that the jays are even offering Gose and JPA, let alone anyone else being added to the deal. As much as i think that Dickey could be a spectacular addition to an already top 5 (i think, but who am i) rotation in the MLB. I think that a knuckleballer will have lingering effects on a 3 game set with anybody. What happens to a team that loses game 1 of a series and has to face Dickey in game 2? Not that he will win every game but he could certainly disrupt some swings in game 3 without even being involved in game 3. Dickey goes into the 7th inning with a lead of any kind, followed by a guy like delebar (or any other 90+ mph thrower) for the 8th and Janssen or Santos in the 9th should be a win in my eyes as long as everyone does their job. Next day (especially a get away day day game) some swings could be off the 3rd game (could).

    I just think that if the Mets cant sign him now, they are only going to get less and less of a return on Dickey, and if you arent ready to win in the next couple years, you may as well grab a couple pieces that “should” be ready to contribute at the time you are ready to win and have their contributions go the furthest for your team. The relationship is already there with the Mets imo and we have what they need and they have a piece that we should want (needs and wants being used properly i think and being 2 very different things).

    Just my opinion but thats maybe why im not a baseball GM (amung other reasons)

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