Truly Dickey-All Going On

There isn’t a whole hell of a lot going on today, so let’s dig up yet another picture of RA Dickey from Getty’s archive and pass along the latest on the Mets knuckleballer who probably isn’t coming to the Jays, and whose virtues and red flags have been discussed around here ad nauseam.

MLBTR has been following along, and has all of today’s latest, some of which comes from Andy Martino of the New York Daily News, who also had an appearance on MLB Network Radio yesterday. Longtime reader/commenter/twitterer and scooper-up of good stuff, Clint, aka @stivbators, listened in:

“Hold on… but Arencibia has been told he’s the starter, and they have him on the Winter Tour. How could he be getting offered in trade talks???!??” asked the clueless.

There’s a bit of a he said-she said drama supposedly going on, which maybe makes a trade more likely? I don’t know. Joel Sherman of the New York Post chronicles much of it:

Besides the financial roadblocks, what became clearer yesterday was a underlying tension between team and player. Dickey is frustrated he cannot get the Mets to move faster, especially because, as he said, “I feel we are asking for even less than what is fair.” The Mets, meanwhile, have mounting concerns whether all of Dickey’s off-the-field endeavors could impact his on-field results or his standing in the clubhouse if the perception is that he has become too absorbed with his new celebrity.

The Mets already were annoyed, The Post has learned, Dickey last week turned down a personal appearance request from owner Fred Wilpon. Nevertheless, they knew he was in town for a business matter and asked him a few days ago to appear at Citi Field for yesterday’s holiday party. The Mets expected Dickey to be more diplomatic in his comments.

In the same piece he notes that the Mets “would consider providing an acquiring team a window to negotiate an extension with Dickey if that would improve the prospect haul.”

So… maybe that’s a thing. Maybe the Jays will “step up,” or maybe they weren’t nearly as serious as we’re being allowed to believe. Whatever. This has gone on way too long.

Comments (91)

  1. MLB tr said that the braves are exploring trades for fowler and bonafacio???

  2. What do you mean? There’s tons going on!

    Could the Jays be discussing Emilio Bonifacio with the Bravos?

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/braves-still-involved-in-multiple-trade-talks.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

    • Meh, even if they are discussing a trade how much could the jays realistically get back for bonifacio who is essentially a utility player? Not too much probably. Unless AA likes one of the braves starters and would package a prospect along with bonifacio to get it done then maybe.

      • I was being sarcastic with my excitement about this…

        But yeah, any deal would probably have to be either for a reliever or with prospects for an SP, which I’m not sure makes sense for a competing Braves team.

      • Bonifacio is more valuable than you may think, I think.

        And the Braves have a massive hard on for him….so.

        • agreed, expand the trade a bit (or whatever is required) for the Jays to get a pitching upgrade

  3. I agree that this has gone on way too long. At this point it either happens or it doesn’t…there’s only so much speculation and hypothesizing that can be done.

  4. Buy a pitcher. Trade nothing.
    Love,
    Sherwood

  5. David O’Brien has been consistently naming Bonafacio as an interest to the Braves. They want a LF’er / lead-off type of guy. Fredi Gonzalez of course managed Bonafacio in Miami.

  6. No thanks, I’d rather keep d’Arnaud. 8-10 years of d’Arnaud will far outproduce the 3 years of Dickey (if you take Dickey’s extension money and sign d’Arnaud a few FA years)

    There is a reason they won’t pay him more than 10M a year.

    • yup that reason is because the Mets are cheap fuckers

      • i dont think it’s that they’re cheap fuckers… they’re just not stupid
        As of right now, they have him under contract, no one can take that away.
        They have exclusive negotiating rights with a pitcher fresh off a cy young.
        They have the privilege of waiting to see what could be offered to them in exchange. They know what they’d be willing to take for him and rushing this isn’t necessary.

        • they are either cheap or they are shameless. their initial $16 Million extension offer was insulting to a cy young winner regardless of age. Pettitte got $12 Million as a 41 year old who hasn’t pitched a full season since he was 37.

          • I think they’re just currently not giving a fuck.
            they have literally nothing to gain by signing him earlier than later.

    • His 3 year average WAR should net him 16.1 million per year

      The reason has been stated, METS = cheaper than a Moore’s suit.

  7. Fuck the mets are too cheap, why don’t they just sign him to an extension in this crazy world where Brandon League gets a there year 22 million dollar deal. I’d love to see him on the jays but really, if JPA and a C+/B- prospect doesnt get it done, just move on.

    • I like this one. JPA + Gose is even an overpay IMO. Give them Pillar + JPA + another C+

      • Pillar and JPA might as well be JPA alone.

      • That reminds me of the Yankees boards when Jose B first burst into the spotlight. They were all ‘get this guy for the Yanks!!! Give the Jays Joba Chamberlain and call it quits. They’ll grab our hands off…’

        I think the Mets want an overpay or they are keeping him whether he likes it or not. I would love to have him. But not for D’Arnaud and Gose if that’s what they’re asking.

        • Until the Jays have JJ locked up for more than one year, I very much think it’s worth paying a premium for wins this coming year. And, even then, I think the team is will built to win now before you start to see declines in EE/Bautista/Reyes

          TDA is obviously too much but I am in the JPA+ camp.

    • The guy just won a Cy Young. Unless his arm runs into a chain saw between now and opening day he’s worth far, far more than JPA and a C+ prospect. JPA, one of the Lansing kids, and then a C+ prospect is within the realm of reason here.

  8. Bonafacio for one of the Braves’ excess arms (Teheran, Medlan?) would certainly solve a lot of problems.

  9. Unrelated and irrelevant:

    If the Indians were able to turn one year of Choo into Bauer, could the Jays not have been able to build a package around Rasmus for him?
    That would’ve been awesome.

    • No. They wouldn’t have.

      Cleveland got him for Didi Gregorius, though, mostly– an all-glove, no-bat shortstop not terribly unlike Hechavarria. The Jays maybe could have had something there– I remember hearing that Arizona liked him back when Upton rumours were happening– but as good a prospect as Bauer is, not sure he’s a great fit to pitch at Rogers Centre. And obviously there are reasons to prefer what they did with the Miami deal anyway.

      • I know this is just senseless wondering on a slow day at work but I was imagining the Jays slotted in as the Indians in the 3-way deal. Rasmus heads to the DBacks for Gregorious who’s then flipped for Bauer.

        I don’t think there’s enough evidence pointing to Bauer as a flyball pitcher to suggest he’d be any worse than anyone else at the Skydome.

  10. Why even give them JPA? An offer of Buck (with his salary paid by the Jays) and Rasmus ought to get it done. The more this drama drags on,Dickey offers start softening

  11. A player who is willing to sign a below market contract extension sure doesn’t sound like someone who has become too enamoured with his own celebrity.

    • sure does sound like the kind of BS that reporters come up with when trying to fill the whitespace, though.

  12. Does anyone know what RA’s ‘off-the-field endeavours’ are all about?

  13. Meh. Just sign Edwin Jackson for like 3/40 and call it a day. :)

  14. Here is a good way to look at trading them d’Arnaud:

    Surplus value:
    Let’s say d’Arnaud averages 2 fWAR over the next 6 years, which is fairly close to a median projection. That requires him to play around 120 games a year, and bat .240/.300/.390 with league average defense and baserunning. Let’s just pretend that is the median.

    The salaries through the first 6 years usually look like (paid) [surplus]:
    2013: 414k (414k) [9,566,000]
    2014: 414k (414k) [9,566,000]
    2015: 414k (414k) [9,566,000]
    2016: 40% of worth (10M*.4 = 4,000,000) [6,000,000]
    2017: 60% of worth (10M*.6 = 6,000,000) [4,000,000]
    2018: 80% of worth (10M*.8 = 8,000,000) [2,000,000]
    2019: FA
    Total: (19,242,000) [40,698,000]
    Surplus value: 21,456,000

    So really, we’d be paying in the neighborhood of 50M for the next 3 years of Dickey if we traded for him instead of signing an equivalent pitcher in FA. That’s if you believe that d’Arnaud will only hit .240/.300/.390 with only “average” defense. If you think he will hit more, then it’s like paying 60 or even 70M for 3 years of Dickey.

    • sometimes i don’t know how to respond to well thought out posts…good job.

      • yeah d’Arnaud is just too much to pay. Only way it would be worth it is if Dickey takes the Jays to the world series.

        • That’s right. I’m not against trading d’Arnaud for a player, just Dickey would be an overpay.

          That’s like trading d’Arnaud for Grienke tomorrow. Sure Grienke is a great pitcher and it would make our team better, but he’s already making market value so what is the point?

          People forget just how stupid this Dickey situation is. The guy has a career year, then demands an extension for 2014/2015 or else he will walk. We will be paying him off of 2012, not his contract year, in which his contract year will obviously be worse (unless you pencil in Dickey for back to back Cy Young’s). He isn’t even that confident he can repeat, and he has shown that through his actions. Even The Met’s don’t want to extend him, but are asking the moon for him in a trade because they want to find out if a team is stupid enough to pay them.

          Dickey and the Mets deserve an award for what they are doing. Dickey had a 3.35 GPA in College and was an “Academic All- American” and he’s showing it now. The Mets are smart to do exactly what they are doing too, know he is either walking next season or they have to pay him based off a year everybody knows he can’t repeat.

          • ummm Dickey’s requests are more than reasonable. His extension would mean he would get about $10 Million AAV for the next 3 years. That is a ridiculously cheap amount for someone coming off of a cy young award in this market. If Dickey were a free agent the Jays would pay 3/30 for him in a heartbeat.

          • There is a reason the Mets aren’t keeping him at that price. Don’t you think they would re-sign him if that the case?

            Dickey had a career year then told management if they don’t offer him an extension he will walk next season, trying to get paid based on this years performance because next year you know the value is going down.

            d’Arnaud is worth at least 20M cash, so you are paying 50M for Dickey, for 30.

          • “Dickey had a career year then told management if they don’t offer him an extension he will walk next season, trying to get paid based on this years performance because next year you know the value is going down.”

            The argument that Dickey is getting paid only for 2012 has been repeated over and over and it is flat wrong. Dickey had similar years in 2011 and 2010 which also come into consideration of his price tag. $10 Million AAV based off of 2012,2011, and 2010 is more than fair. Dickey’s request of an extension or he will walk is more than fair. He is old and he wants some security, but at the same time he isn’t going to bend over backwards for the Mets and sign for their insulting $16 Million extension offer (now bumped up to $20). If they aren’t going to give him what he thinks is below market, then he is confident enough in his abilities to play through 2013 and sign somewhere else in 2014.

            Why the Mets aren’t willing to pay Dickey is probably due to a mixture of their cheapness (they have little funds after extending Wright) and also because they probably value him more as a trade asset at this point given that they don’t look like contenders any time soon.

          • Most pitchers who come off a Cy Young season who are 1 year out of FA will test the waters to make the most money possible. Dickey has gone a step further and said if you don’t pay me for what I did yesterday, I will leave tomorrow.

            My argument isn’t Dickey is a bad pitcher, but rather he is not worth d’Arnaud. He is a great pitcher, but not worth a guy like d’Arnaud. It’s ridiculous.

            I think the Wright argument helps my point more than yours. They chose to extend Wright over extending Dickey, as they value their cornerstone 3B over the “best pitcher in baseball”.

            Dickey will get overpaid for, I just hope it isn’t the Jays.

          • I never suggested Dickey was worth d’Arnaud. I just think it is total bullshit suggesting that how the Mets are handling Dickey somehow “says a lot” about his value.

            “or they have to pay him based off a year everybody knows he can’t repeat.”

            this is also horseshit, because paying him for his 2012 would mean he would get a $15 Million + AAV, when they offered him a mere $3 Million per year raise off of his dirt cheap $5 Million AAV. And your suggestion that everyone knows he wont repeat his 2012 is entirely unfair. Why? We all know it is unlikely that he will repeat his 2012, the Mets aren’t even offering close to what he was worth in 2012. But what we do know is that Dickey has been VERY VERY good for the last 600 innings or so of his career. Better than Greinke, better than any Blue Jay, in fact better than all pitchers in baseball except somehwere between 5-10 guys. He deserves to get paid well for that, especially in this inflated market.

            $8 Million AAV for a guy with that resume over the last 3 years, even with all the risks to factor in, is a pathetic offer.

          • Dickey and the Met’s are handling it well.

            If I was a top tier pitcher, I’d wait until the year I hit FA and charge a huge sum of money and get maybe an extra year there.

            He DEMANDS he gets paid after his Cy Young year and is threatening to walk.

            I get if you don’t understand but don’t call it “horesehit”

          • “If I was a top tier pitcher, I’d wait until the year I hit FA and charge a huge sum of money and get maybe an extra year there.”

            Dickey is 38 years old and has never had security in his 20 year career. He could break his wrist moving a piano and never get the chance to sign a contact again.

            “He DEMANDS he gets paid after his Cy Young year and is threatening to walk.

            I get if you don’t understand but don’t call it “horesehit””

            I called it horseshit because I think much of what you’re saying is untrue. To what extent is he DEMANDING an extension? Every player goes through this before their contract year. And it is entirely reasonable to suggest that he will leave the team after the season after the insulting offer the Mets gave him. I don’t think Dickey handled the situation poorly given how ridiculous the Mets have been. On any compettive team in baseball he would’ve been happily signed to that extension months ago.

    • hahahaha.

  15. d’Arnaud …NO WAY….Tell the Mets to shove it. JP and Moses Sierra

    • too bad JPR isnt the Gm anymore

    • TDA? He’s still a prospect. A good prospect, but not one that’s going to help the Jays contend next year – if that is the goal.

      Dickey is the real deal. The Jays need pitching depth more than they need prospects right now.

      • You are aware that d’Arnaud is MLB ready, and is excepted to out value JPA this season?

        PS He wOBA’ed .400+ 2 years in a row in the minors, and slugged .595 last season at the highest level of the minors.

        • In the PCL, yes.

          Regardless, the other guy we’re talking about won the Cy Young in the NL.

          • And in New Hampshire he wOBA’ed .400 as well.

            The Cy Young who knows he can’t repeat a similar performance, who is old enough to be your dad.

        • There is no reason to expect that d’Arnaud will out-perform JPA this season. He is coming off a rather serious knee injury. He needs to start the season in Buffalo. If he’s healthy, and performs well, he may force his way into the ML lineup. But he will have to adjust (successfully): to major league pitching, to handling the Jays pitching staff, etc.

          Not sure who (other than you) “expects” him to be more valuable than JPA this coming season. He could be, but to expect him to be seems excessive.

          • He hasn’t survived a full pro season yet. I get that he’s going to be good but that’s a red flag for me. I think if that’s all it takes to get Dickey, you do it yesterday.

          • I’d expect him to be more valuable than Arencibia, too.

            Yes, it’ll be a big adjustment, and maybe there’s lingering concern with the knee– though I think that’s overblown because they were cautious about the AFL– but it’s not like the bar is set very high.

            It’s certainly too high a price to pay for Dickey.

  16. so boneface for tehran straight up is a good deal for both sides right?

  17. A package centred around JPA + Bonifacio might be able to get something done. Add in a reliever like Lincoln or Loup, or their choice of a prospect outside of the top 5.

    The Mets get the 2-3 good young players they wanted, but each player is probably not quite as good as they wanted, but they were probably asking for too much.

    • I’m not sure that removing JPA and Bonerface from the 2013 Roster, and adding Dickey actually makes the team better….

      • If any of the 2010-2012 Dickeys show up then it surely does. Buck + d’Arnaud couldn’t be much worse than JP and AA could go and find another utility guy.

        • JP put up like 1.4 fWAR last year. d’Arnaud would have to play below himself to even get 2 fWAR. d’Arnaud’s floor > current JPA.

          You are grossly underrating d’Arnaud, who projects to be an All-Star at some point in his career, to a catcher posting below average values across the board.

          Posey and d’Arnaud line up quite nicely. Similar ages at the same level, and both played in the infamous PCL.

          • Of course d’arnaud will probably be better than JP in the long run, the question is whether 2013 d’Arnaud is worth more than 2013 JPA.

          • d’Arnaud’s defense alone will make up like 10-15 runs on JPA, which means he’d have to be pretty gawd awful with the bat for him to be not worth that.

      • It certainly does, IMW.

  18. Is it wrong that I really want the Jays to trade for Bastardo just so I can yell, “Come on you Bastardo, put it over the plate!”?

  19. This is interesting and awesome, the Jays topped Google’s zeitgeist for searched sports teams in Canada. Fuck you Leafs! Just might have something to do with the lockout, but I’ll take it.

  20. I remember the last time a team had really wanted someone from us (Napoli). You better get something you really want if you make trades like that.

  21. Just give up Gose/Rasmus and JPA for Dickey. Over the past 3 seasons he has been one of the MLB’s top pitchers, and won’t cost that much. With the Red Sox down, Myers in the minors for the Rays, the Yanks getting old, and the Orioles ulikely to repeat, now is the time to go all in.

  22. I suspect the process here isn’t some big mystery.

    The Mets continue to dangle him out there for a trade, but demand more than they know he is worth, to see if any team is dumb enough to bite. While this happens, they try to negotiate a cheap extension with the guy.

    After a while, if the talks are going nowhere on both fronts, they drop their price a bit and move him. If it’s true that the Jays have already tabled an offer like JPA and Gose, I suspect they would eventually take it – even a lot of Jays fans are concerned that may be a mild overpayment.

    I just don’t see the ultimate point for the Mets, in extending Dickey for more than they are already offering, unless they think their team is going anywhere in the next couple of years. Otherwise, a package like JPA + Gose should be almost perfect for them. A dirt cheap catcher for the dirt cheap Mets, with some power and some upside, and Gose – a young, controllable player with lots of potential upside still.

    • What would the next 3 years of Price cost in a trade? d’Arnaud, Sanchez, Gose, and something else? Something ridiculously expensive like that? What would 3 years of Dickey cost, maybe it will end up being something like JPA+Gose? sure Price has a lot longer shelf life, but maybe only 3-5 teams in the league could afford the massive payday he will get in 3 years.

      Seems like pretty good value to me. Obviously Dickey isn’t Price, but top end pitching is ridiculously expensive these days, in terms of prospects and dollars, and even with the risks attached with Dickey, I think it is good value. Not to mention a world series win in the next 3 years is worth any cost in prospects. Hopefully AA will do what he can to try and avoid giving up a piece like Gose, but if that JPA+Gose offer is still on the table in a month, I hope AA pulls the trigger.

  23. He’s 38.. Fuck him!

  24. The Mets want outfield and catcher help and they also apparently want a really good prospect and another good one. That sure sounds like an offer of Gose and A.J. Jimenez gets in done, doesn’t it?

    This allows us to keep J.P. which seems like the likely scenario at this point and it gives the Mets their outfield and catcher help and gives them their really good prospect in Gose and their just plain good one in A.J.

    I only trade Gose if we can get the extension though. Offer Dickey 2 years and $25M with a team option for a 3rd year for $13M with a $1M buyout. That gives him his $31M guaranteed over the next 3 years while giving us 4 years of control to lessen the blow of losing young cheap talent. A Michael Scott win win win.

    • if this deal goes through it will also help soften the blow if JJ walks next year, while also not costing as much as Sanchez or Jackson on the market, which would make signing JJ even harder,

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