The New York Mets seem to, finally, be playing the R.A. Dickey situation close to their vest this afternoon, but it appears much of the cat is already out of the bag, as last night it was reported by Jeff Passan of Yahoo! Sports that the teams were exchanging medicals– which Andy Martino of the New York Daily News has also now indicated, saying that the Jays have been reviewing Dickey’s since yesterday.

Despite earlier suggestions that Anthony Gose may be part of the deal, along with Travis d’Arnaud– the believed centrepiece– Joel Sherman of the New York Post now says that no permutation of the would involve Gose.

Sherman also, astutely, points out that one of the main reasons the Jays are doing this– to the consternation of far too many of their prospect-obsessed fans– is that they feel they need to deal prospects in order to best surround guys like Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Reyes and Mark Bueherle with as much talent as possible.

It may hurt to seem to be on the verge of losing d’Arnaud– it may hurt even more to think of JP Arencibia and his shitty on-base being the guy from here out– but evidently that’s the cost of doing business.

And frankly, the way that catchers’ bats are generally slow-coming in terms of development, it’s understandable that, while the Jays may (rightly) be believers in his long-term future, for 2013 it’s hard to picture d’Arnaud’s value dramatically exceeding Arencibia’s in 2012.

The long-term pain is for short-term gain, and with the way the off-seasons have gone in the rest of the division, Arencibia’s immediate value– not to mention Dickey’s– is pretty ridiculously huge for Toronto. Every extra win of talent the Jays can accumulate puts them in better position to win the division; it also helps increase excitement, ratings, gate receipts, revenue; it puts them in a position where, as a championship-calibre club, in the coming years they can actually be viewed as a viable free agent destination– something they haven’t been for decades, and have obviously had to work around this winter, at a very high cost in prospects. It maybe even makes it easier down the road for them to replace Arencibia on the free agent market, or to bring in free agents who will block prospects who can then be moved for an upgrade, if need be.

So, those are pretty clear reasons to understand why the Jays may be about to grit their teeth and part with d’Arnaud, and be less concerned about the depletion of their prospect wealth above the low minors than far too many fans seem to be– a position I find somewhat odd, seeing as we learned last year that close-to-the-Majors talent is paramount in these kinds of deals, and that this is precisely how Alex Anthopoulos has said all along he wanted to build the club.

I’ve seen it suggested that the Jays should simply keep their prospects and go get a pitcher like Edwin Jackson for a little more money than Dickey’s extension will require– and, indeed, another reason to understand the deal from the Jays’ perspective is that all indications are that a trade does not get done without an extension or the framework for one in place with the Cy Young winner– but that kind of market-based solution is problematic for a number of reasons.

For one, Jackson is similar enough to Anibal Sanchez– who just got $80-million from the Tigers– that I suspect the notion of a “little” more money is fanciful (Dickey is only looking for something in the neighbourhood of $30-million over three years). For two, there is certainly no guarantee that Jackson, or whoever else remains on the market, would even take the Jays’ money.

For three: R.A. Dickey is really fucking good, you guys.

There has been a lot of talk about his age, his lack of an ulnar collateral ligament, and his seeming out-of-nowhere season last year, but all of these concerns are dramatically overblown– often lately by those with too-heavy an attachment to a catching prospect who has been built up in the prospect-watching minds almost constantly since he arrived in the Roy Halladay deal. (Again, yeah, he’s absolutely a high end prospect, and I’d much prefer keeping him than Arencibia, but you’ve got to give up something to get something).

Sticking with Edwin Jackson as a comparison, over the last three years Dickey has been better by more than a full run of ERA (4.10 to 2.95). While their FIP, xFIP and SIERA numbers are closer, Dickey still bests Jackson in those, and his tERA has been almost a full run better as well. People get hung up on FanGraphs’ version of WAR– I suspect mostly because it’s visually more apparent on their screen– which means the fact that Jackson’s half win advantage over the three years may loom large for some (though Dickey was two wins better in 2012), but Baseball Reference tells a different story, calculating Dickey’s WAR over that period to be 12 and Jackson’s to be 6.

And that’s when we lump two very good seasons from the possibly soon-to-be newest Jay in with his superb 2012. Understandably there’s skepticism about Dickey’s apparent “figuring out” of his money pitch at age 37, and the spike he saw in strikeout rate as a consequence, but given that it’s an extreme “feel” pitch, such a story isn’t entirely out of the realm of possibility. Add in that the Jays, under Anthopoulos, have greatly expanded their scouting operation, were pulling scouts off of minor league games last summer to watch big leaguers in anticipation of these kinds of deals, and the fact that they have a pretty good track record of late when it comes to identifying regression-defiant changes in guys having out-of-nowhere success (see: Bautista, Jose; Encarnacion, Edwin) and you start to worry a little bit less.

And then even less when you see Joel Sherman point out that Dickey’s worst numbers have come in the cold and the rain– an advantage, then, in his moving to a domed stadium (and one that lines up perfectly with what this 2009 Amalie Benjamin piece for the Boston Globe says about the Jays’ attempts to always have the roof open when Tim Wakefield was pitching for the Red Sox– a plan they can enact in reverse when Dickey is on the hill).

And less still when Dave Cameron of FanGraphs takes a cudgel to the notion that Dickey is a one-year wonder, explaining, after running through the stats, that “Yes, he was better last year than he had been in prior years. So was David Price. If you’re going to call one of them a one year wonder, you have to call them both a fluke. Personally, I’ll just go the other direction, and call both of them elite starting pitchers, worthy of all the adulation you want to throw their way.”

Absolutely there are risks beyond just performance, but it’s worth noting that, when it comes to those too, almost every one of the main ones being constantly bleated isn’t nearly as bad as it seems.

The lack of a UCL? It sure sounds weird, but between the Majors and minors he’s thrown over 2300 innings since turning pro, and according to the injury history on his Baseball Prospectus card, he hasn’t had anything resembling arm trouble since 2006. And he hasn’t spent time on the DL since 2005. That doesn’t mean he’s not a risk to break down, of course, but the idea that it’s a bigger concern than any other pitcher just doesn’t fly– at least not in my mind.

His age? I can’t say that it’s not a concern at all, but normal aging curves simply do not apply apply for knuckleballers– even ones who throw theirs harder than any knuckler that’s ever been thrown. Yes, he throws with more velocity and effort than Wakefield did, but we’re still only talking 75-79 for the bulk of his pitches, with a fastball sitting around 83. To expect aging that’s typical of a 38-year-old for a guy with that repertoire is just nutty– there simply are not the same kinds of stresses and strains on the arm, and not the same kind of wear and tear to begin with either.

His NL-based success? As fun as it is to rag on the National League, the idea that Dickey was a Quad-A/mid-Twins-rotation pitcher who jumped leagues and suddenly turned into a Cy Young winner is pretty seriously ridiculous. The numbers from his last turn on the junior circuit aren’t pretty, but fortunately for the Jays (or whoever lands him), he was an entirely different pitcher then. According to his FanGraphs page he only started throwing the knuckleball in 2005, and from that season through the end of 2009, he only pitched in 209 big league innings, throwing the pitch nearly 20% less often, and not with the same velocity as he began to after joining the Mets and beginning his incredible turnaround.

Are there concerns about moving to the Rogers Centre from the spacious park he called home for the last three years? There has to be, I think, but his ERA was 2.90 on the road, and his FIP and xFIP were both better outside of Citi Field in 2012. That wasn’t quite the case for the previous two seasons, though his 2011 road ERA was better than at home, and his road xFIP in 2010 was pretty close.

Of course, I’m just cherry picking the numbers that look best from those splits, and if he goes back to the guy he was prior to last season, there should be worry about him coming to a team that plays in the Rogers Centre, and so many times at Fenway and in the Bronx. Shit, it’s almost like Dickey isn’t flawless and there really are risks here! But even so, the addition of the “mere” three-win Dickey of 2010 would give a tremendous boost to this rotation, allowing J.A. Happ to become an excellent sixth starter for the club (provided he doesn’t straight-up replace Darren Oliver as the lefty setup man)– and the extension that he’ll sign gives the club time to bridge the gap while waiting for the likes of Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, who are both on a path that could see them debut as early as mid-2014.

Of course, as we saw this year, Dickey can be so much more than what he was in 2010 and 2011. And frankly, if he had been ours for the last three years, and it was the Mets who were offering us d’Arnaud for him, I suspect that many of the people aghast about what the Jays seem to be about to give up wouldn’t exactly be fucking giddy about the heist we were about to pull either.

Even if that’s not true, the bottom line is, Cy Young-calibre talent becomes available to this franchise so incredibly rarely, and it can be such a difference-maker right now, given the career arcs of the Jays’ core players, that as much as it hurts to see them seemingly about to  part with d’Arnaud– as much as we’d much prefer it if JP Arencibia could be “the cost of doing business” instead (again: he can’t, which is precisely why we’re here)– and as much as Dickey maybe isn’t quite a “Cy Young pitcher” in the Justin Verlander sense, this would be a tremendous, tremendous pick-up for the Jays, especially outside of the sometimes-too-cute vacuum of cost control, prospect fawning, and dollars-per-WAR.

Something about flags? Something about how they fly forever?

And hey, if this can finally, finally kill the myth about the Jays never being involved in a deal that’s heavily rumoured, even better.

 

Image via @ohheymike.

Comments (182)

  1. Dickey is our ace in the hole 8)

  2. BJs and Dickey together, as they should be.

  3. I’m not reading the internet the rest of the day. I don’t want Dickey. He’s old enough to be my grandfather and I’m in my 50′s. They’ll regret this. The Mets will laugh all the way to the bank.

    • It’s not every day you can mortgage your future for a 38 year old shitballer, JiO.

    • The next time i listen to anything a man from Ohio has to say about anything other than corn or how badly Cleveland sucks will be the first time.

      • I’m not a Cleveland fan, I’ve been following the Blue Jays since 1977. Oh, and you are right, Cleveland does suck, along with Cincinnasty and Cowlumbus. The most positive thing I can say about this place is the locals appear to have all their real teeth.

    • im glad im not the only one, this bs about giving up something to get something, we would be giving up future talent for future retirement

  4. great post

  5. Get off your knees. When did you become a writer for the Jays and not about them?

    • Fuck off James

      • In the last week or so… I recall Stoeten thinking a deal for Dickey involving Gose and Arencibia would have been an overpay. I’m interested to know what changed his mind.

        I’m of the Flags Fly Forever variety and would be happy to move either Gose or d’Arnaud as the centrepiece for an elite starting pitcher on a cheap contract. I do think a package that included both of them would have been an insane overpay and I’m still not sure how I feel about giving up Syndergaard and d’Arnaud for Dickey + ?. The ? would have to be Niese or Harvey for me not to be a little upset. I’ll reserve judgement until I know what’s coming back along with Dickey, but don’t mind giving up many of our best prospects if it meant acquiring years of cheap control of Niese/Harvey. They’re more proven and capable of contributing while the core is in their primes.

  6. “People get hung up on FanGraphs’ version of WAR– I suspect mostly because it’s visually more apparent on their screen”

    *raises hand guiltily*
    same reason I pick CNN for anything election-related. it’s so pretty…

  7. Nice perspective Stoeten. One of TDA or Gose is palatable. I just didn’t want to see both go. And the notion that TDA was going to somehow displace JPA in 2013 remains wishful thinking. Imagine that, a green horned rookie catcher handling that rotation and bullpen?

  8. Can’t wait for the season to start!

  9. Prospect-obsessed fans? For months and months the Jays fanbase has been hearing that TDA might just be the next Buster Posey, or as close to can’t miss as prospects can really get. I think it’s pretty reasonable to question moving him for a 38-year-old knuckleballer when all the rotation really needs is depth.

    • Next Buster Posey? If anyone said that, you should have known better than to believe it. Jason Parkes in his latest piece projects D’Arnaud to hit .270-.275 with 15-25 HRs. AKA, not Buster Posey.

      • .270-.275 w/ 15-25 HRs from your catcher? Sounds like pretty good production to me, and I do admit the Posey thing was an exaggeration.

        • Great production, no doubt! A catcher I wish we would have for years to come! Just had issue with the comp.

    • “Prospect-obsessed fans”. An outrage stemming from dedicated, for-profit sites dealing in baseball knowledge for a baseball fan clientele. Mmmm.

      It’s a bit like when the online baseball establishment admonish fans for getting obsessed about trades, despite being being the outlets for said rumour-mongering. Perverse.

  10. Great article, as i have written for a couple of months. Get the knuckler !

  11. Aren’t the WAR calculations for knuckleballers also a little off, because the pitch induces a lot of weak swings?

  12. Exciting time for jays fans

  13. If the reports are true, I really believe that the Jays are selling high on D’Arnauld right now, for the following reasons:
    - he’s not really a big guy, and I question whether he will have much power at the MLB level
    - his K to bb ratio has consistently been terrible
    - his brother (of a similar body type) can hit a lick
    - he’s had a string of serious injuries
    - he’ll be 24 in just over a month

    I’m sure he’ll be an okay major leaguer, but I think the Jays were smart to deal him now.

    • Tommie Aaron wasn’t much of a hitter, either.

    • D-Arnoud is 6’2″ and 195 right now, with plenty of time to add a few pounds he’ll probably round out to be 210′ish which is not small, especially behind the plate.

      He walks about 7% of the time and K’s about 20%. Not great but not “terrible”.

      He is not his brother.

      Granted, the 2 injuries are a concern because they might cause problems a few years down the road. A back problem and a torn knee might make him move out from behind the plate by the time he’s in his prime.

  14. “Flags fly forever” is a really cute way to say “we’re making a horribly shortsighted trade”.

    • Spelling your name “sacha” is a really cute way of saying “I am gay”.

    • One prospect (or however many it ends up being) does not ruin the future. Drafts happen, trades happen, the system will get re-stocked, always does. 3 years of Dickey and constant contention with meaningful baseball at the end of the season is well worth it.

    • Which is a cute way of saying “we FINALLY made the playoffs after 20 years of being long-sighted.”

  15. Excellent read Stoeten.

    I’ve come around in the last 48 hours, to say the least. There’s a wide open window here in this division. The Yankees are old, the Rays might be in a one-year re-load, the Orioles are a mirage, and the Red Sox…I’d say fuck them but really, who the hell knows. Let’s live with Arencibia, who’s probably this generation’s Pat Borders, which isn’t terrible. It’s not great, but it’s not terrible either.

    Here’s what I know though: I remember being in the furthest reaches of the 500 level as a 4 year old in 1991 for the game that saw the Jays reach 4 million fans. I remember growing up at a time when baseball in Toronto was everything. I remember growing up at a time when the Leafs opened a season winning 10 straight games — and were on page 10 because the Blue Jays owned this city. I grew up in Toronto the baseball town, not Toronto the hockey town. And it’s a damn good baseball town. I WANT THAT BASEBALL TOWN BACK NOW!

    Let’s make this shit happen.

  16. fuck this

  17. you bring a good point that if we traded, say Halladay, for D’arnaud (at today’s value) I probably wouldn’t have been a fan. He’s great, but looking from a non Jays perspective the knee injury and risk of just getting one prospect is a concern

    • If at the time of the Halladay trade I told you that the Jays would be getting in return Anthony Gose, Kyle Drabek and the 2012 NL Cy Young award winner (but the latter not until the 2013 season). I think most people would be pretty happy with that.

  18. Agreed on all counts. It’s not ideal, but this deal makes sense for the Jays considering their current situation.

  19. ur good stoten

  20. Dickey isn’t worth giving up D’Arnaud, there’s better chance D’Arnaud will become an above average catcher then Dickey will have another amazing season….

    • Agree. This move seems really shortsighted.

      • Can’t be constantly building for the future and hoping all your prospect porn comes to fruition. AA has said all along that when the time came and they felt they were close to competing that they’d pull the trigger to add the final pieces, and its happening. Don’t like it, feel free to cheer for the Royals, I hear they’re system is pretty stocked.

  21. If you arent fully aware of how awesome Dickey is, watch this Movie about the knuckleball. He is the main star : http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/knuckleball_2012/trailers/

  22. Also, Sidd Finch. I want that man in Toronto.

  23. Love the optimism , now hopefully rogers doesnt fuck us

  24. “… one of the main reasons the Jays are doing this– to the consternation of far too many of their prospect-obsessed fans”

    “…and be less concerned about the depletion of their prospect wealth above the low minors than far too many fans seem to be– a position I find somewhat odd”

    Stoeten, you’re pulling the Wilner act. Here is what you wrote two days ago in the Truly Dickey Going On comments:

    “I’d expect him to be more valuable than Arencibia, too. Yes, it’ll be a big adjustment, and maybe there’s lingering concern with the knee– though I think that’s overblown because they were cautious about the AFL– but it’s not like the bar is set very high. It’s certainly too high a price to pay for Dickey.”

    And then in the Dickey Speculation Coming Hot and Hard when D’Arnaud is first mentioned as a likely piece:

    “Andy Martino strikes more fear into me as he lays this on us…”

    There is nothing wrong with having your opinions evolve. That’s a good blog entry. But for chrissakes, don’t do the Wilner-esque revisionism where you act as though you haven’t budged an inch, pedestaling yourself above an irrational fanbase.

    • If he didn’t do that, what would he have to write about? I remember a few posts lately where he all but implied d’Arnaud was a can’t miss all-star and that people who were citing his lack of MLB experience were idiots.

    • So true, I called him out on this on Twitter last night. He has absolutely turned his opinion around, and very recently to boot. Now anyone who shares his previous opinion, which he acts as though he has never had, is, you guessed it, an idiot!

      If I had to guess, this is the Rogers influence on the Score sending their message from the top: “writers, get on board and get your fans on board!”

      I can’t say I disagree with this week’s Stoeten, but I would never be so arrogant as to suggest that anyone who questioned this move was an idiot.

      But hey, I am not a unilateral-thinking, Revenge of the Nerds type writer, employed indirectly by the owners of the team that I am supposed to write about unbiasedly. So what the hell do I know??

  25. http://mlb.sbnation.com/2012/12/15/3768600/the-many-crimes-of-r-a-dickey-against-the-new-york-mets#comments

    Great article spoffing the trash that was in a New York paper about Dickeys character.

    Also let’s not forget that time Dickey was seen at a new Jersey Devils game……. yeah the guy went to New Jersey…. what an asshole.

  26. Great piece. This is why this is my favorite Blue Jays blog. Rationality is so rare nowadays.

    • Meaning he would have been irrational a couple of days ago when he said D’Arnaud was too high a price tag for Dickey?

      • The point being he has come to a rational conclusion.
        If you’re really pissed off and you say youre going to quit your job, its probably irrational, if you take a step back see you need it to support your livelihood you have just come to a rational conclusion.
        Rationality is a process.

  27. It would be better if we could trade JPA with Gose AND sweeten the deal with one or two other prospects and/or Lind then trade TDA.

  28. I like the move, not without risks, but it makes the Jays the true beasts of the AL East. Not only is this team good, it is going to be one hell of a fun team to watch, and the attendance should go off the charts in 2013.

    And holy shit, I’ve spent hours talking about Dickey on this site and with people in real life, and although I always advocated the move, I never really thought it was going to happen.

  29. So what else is there to do if this trade goes through?
    Upgrade the “pen?
    Release Lind (pending him being traded of course)

    • I think upgrade the pen and find out what the fuck Oliver is doing (I really, really hope the fact that this team is a contender convinces him to come back).

      If Lind is hitting .200 in June then that problem can be solved mid season.

  30. Awesome summary and I appreciate re-reading those links. I’m convinced that this would be a good move.

  31. Anybody who questions getting last year’s NL Cy Young, a guy who has dominated and improved over the last 3 years, they are nuts.

    We have what is probably the best core and pitching in the AL, IMO, all apologies to the Angels. Sorry, the Tigers are not close. Texas, meh, a step or two back.

    These Jays core guys are in their prime together over the next 3 or 4 years. If the Jays don’t do this deal, all that A ball talent and d’ Arnaud putting in the 2 years it takes to learn his rotation, and the AL hitters, HELLO, that’s too late for guys like Bautista, Encarcion, Buerle, Jansen, maybe Boneface and Reyes too.

    Prospects may turn out to be suspects, but even if d’Arnaud wins a silver slugger or gold glove, who gives a fuck. Flags Fly Forever. The time to finish building the beast and win it all is now.

    Anybody who can’t figure that out should be fans of the Dead Sox, with the shit they are passing off to their fan base, slavishly simple they are.

    • also no signs point to an imminent regression. Players can watch videos of knuckle balls all day, but each one is going to come out differently. he is a secret weapon that might also have a net effect on other pitchers by throwing hitters timing off. He’s also the first player since Halladay the Jays have had that can be expected to rack up complete games. I think that mid season 2013 Dickey will change some peoples minds.

    • I have to admit, if the AL was a Beer League, the corpulent Tigers jiggle to victory. (or is that waddle?)

  32. http://scores.espn.go.com/mlb/recap?id=320618121

    Lets hope Dickey does this to or Al East foes all year long.

  33. Mike Puma of the New York Post reporting that they’ve discussed Syndergaard in the deal.

    https://twitter.com/NYPost_Mets

    • This I do not want.

    • Another JPR bald face lie spread by a lazy ass crony writer.of his. Typical Riccardi, fucking liar.
      Are you reading this Blair? Blair, for all JPR’s years in TO, you slutted for easy quotes giving you a 10 minute write for your column. And your Sportsnet gig sucks hard like old dirt. Fucker.

  34. does Robert Allen Dickey have another middle name, like Ulysses or Uriah????

    R.U.A. Dickey???

  35. The more I think about it, the more I think AA may not be all that hot about TDA.. There were reports of us trying to trade him for Profar earlier in the summer. Maybe AA really did tell JPA he was here to stay, because he sees something negative in d`Arnaud that we don`t.. clearly just spitballing here

  36. “So to recap, Dickey, Thole and another player to Jays for d’Arnaud, Buck, Syndergaard and another player was on table this morning.”

    https://twitter.com/NYPost_Mets/status/280044122725826562

  37. I’m happy with the deal cause we are getting a pitcher who should be a solid ace or #2 starter for only 3 yrs 31 million. (2/26 extension and 5 mil for 2013)
    Darnaud is a great prospect but you need to make sacrifices.
    Out of curiosity would you guys rather give up JPA, Colby and Gose or just TDA?

  38. I can get my head about dealing Darnuad…. but him and Syndergard? Wow. Wowww.

  39. Oh damn please not Syndergaard too.

  40. FUCKING SYNDERGAARD TO?!?!?! I WAS FINE WITH THIS UNTIL NOW. WHAT THE FUCKING FUCK OF TAINTS.

  41. NO Syndergaard just do it straight up

  42. I’m thinking this Puma guy is atleast a bit full of shit. Imagine this conversation
    Mets: We really like D’Arnaud
    AA: Well you can’t have him unless the deal expands
    Mets: We’ll throw in a crappy catcher and unknown player if you’ll throw in your best pitching prospect
    AA: DEAL!

  43. Love the dick pic

  44. This trade still has the possibilty of falling apart. AA has not said anything yet and all the conjecture is coming from the NYM. To trade both TDA and now m/b Syndegaard, if true, would mean we would have to get back a Wheeler os someone of that stature. i have a hard time believing we would tarde another of what was the Lansing3 to make a Lansing 1

    • the Mets would be idiots for turning down a Dickey for d’Arnaud trade, just because they probably won’t get a better prospect anywere else

  45. Fuck wrote a huge post in the other thread then i see this one and Syndy could be on the block?

    Man, AA is scaring me now. This deal may take a lot longer.

  46. wtf….this up on SN twitter feed.
    TwitterAdam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN
    RT @NYPost_Mets: Dickey, Thole and another player to Jays for d’Arnaud, Buck, Syndergaard and another player was on table this morning.

  47. The Dick man cometh.

  48. The Mets would send Dickey, Josh Thole, and Lucas Duda to Toronto. Toronto would send John Buck, Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez to the Mets in addition to D’arnaud

    Um, holy shit what?

    No way I’m trading those 2 pitchers, the Mets are clowning hard here

    • Somebody said that Syndergaard and Sanchez were discussed in the deal, the idiots at Metsblog thought that meant both would be in the deal. I think it’s obvious that it’d be one or the other in the deal.

  49. Joel Sherman
    @Joelsherman1
    If d’Arnaud, Syndegaard (#Bluejays Nos. 1, 3 prospects in BA) both in package then prospect #Mets will have to give up will be significant

  50. MLBTR is gonna crash again, i just know it, haha

  51. holy fuck it could be this trade that defines AA’s legacy and not The Trade.

    • Nah, c’mon The Trade was what led to all of this happening in the first place!

    • Similar to David Cone trade IMO, although it’s before season and the trade is still weeks old.

    • this is just the start…AA is 35, he takes the Beezers job in a couple of years, but this is how this franchise runs for the next 30 years.. I’ll be dead, they will still be in the hunt…

      I might put that on my headstone…”I’m Dead and Gone the Jays are Alive in 1st Place”

  52. if they lose d’arnaud, I can only hope that he turns into less than nothing, because if he turns into a sliver of anything then in my mind this trade would be a failure. I’m gonna go buy some voodoo stuff.

    • that’s a little dumb. If d’Arnaud turns into an above average catcher but the Jays get 3 years of ace or near-ace quality pitching then it isn’t that bad to lose d’Arnaud at all.

  53. where’s all this shit coming from? who’s the fucking sieve here ? aren’t the two sides bunkered down in their respective offices, away from the media and all else ?? the longer this goes on, the more i’m not liking it. keep it fucking simple.

  54. It looks like AA is doing exactly what Kansas city did.

    • That sounds like an insult.

      • Haha it might very well be. I just can’t say until we know what happens.

        If it’s Syndergaard and d’Arnaud going for Dickey and minor pieces, then the Jays did pull a move very similar to the Shields trade

  55. Iy kurumba! Life is exciting Amigos!

  56. It could be a good sing that JP and Ken Roesnthal haven’t jumped in on this Syndergard stuff, yet. I trust those guys and their sources more than Mike Puma. Who wrote that god awfull peice about Dickeys Character.

  57. What worth is there in the 2 teams exchanging pitching prospects. Darnaud and Thole for Dickey and Rajai Davis.
    Or Dickey for Darnaud straight up…both are fair deals

  58. Two things if this trade passes through with the rumored pieces:

    1) Understanding knuckleball pitchers fare somewhat differently from other pitchers, 38 years is still 38 years. Age, especially where the normal curving age means way more in sports than RA Dickey working in a cubicle looking for his red stapler.Let’s not downplay that the Jays may never get a better performance from Dickey in his entire Jays career – you might minimize the drop off, but you can’t fight age.

    2) The Jays will have a top-10 pick from a shitastic 2012 season, and at least two picks in the top-60 or so. The Jays farm system should be replenished soon enough.

    • 1) I’m totally ok with some regression from the raw filth he was tossing last season
      2) Good point, the system will still be ok, even though fingers crossed we keep Syndergaard

    • fuck off

    • I checked out a bunch of knucklers since the rumour started. Just one – I think it was Candiotti – retired at 41. All the rest (that I could think of anyway) lasted longer. They include Joe Niekro 43, Tim Wakefield 44. Charlie Hough 46, Phil Niekro 48 and Hoyt Wilhelm 49 ,almost 50. But if Dickey retires after 41, that would probably be ok with AA.

  59. Who the fuck is Thole?

  60. d’Arnaud, Syndergaard, and Buck for Dickey, Thole, and Wheeler sounds good to me

  61. Too much chatter, and I’m way to caffeinated to follow it without risking my health. This seems like as good a status update as any:

    Andy McCullough ‏@McCulloughSL

    I can tell you that Travis d’Arnaud is the centerpiece of this deal in the works, and R.A. Dickey throws a knuckleball.

  62. We REALLY need to see the hole trade before we start praising/shitting on AA whenever another piece gets hypothetically “added” to The Trade Part 2.

  63. I always like to turn the tables to try and view a deal subjectively (ie if we had Dickey and they were offering D’Arnaud, how would we feel?). I even wrote about it in a post on the last blog, so I’m guessing Stoeten stole my thunder in this latest blog. Anything I can do to help, ya big lumberjack. Funny how the Mets were so head over heels about Gose eh?

  64. why would we also need to give up syndergaard or sanchez…..we better only give up TDA
    if thole is such a big deal then throw in rajai, bonifacio, buck or even rasmus

  65. Quite fortuitously, Sickels posted his preliminary Mets prospect list yesterday. http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/14/3767222/new-york-mets-preliminary-prospect-list

  66. 1. This post is a lot less condescending than usual toward people who might have the audacity and temerity to disagree with your unimpeachable assessments, so kudos.

    2. I agree. You gotta get this deal done, even if it means giving up D’Arnaud.

    3. People don’t seem to be contemplating that if this team doesn’t work out for some reason, the Jays will still be holding a lot of chips that can be traded to re-stock the farm system with prospects. They have a huge number of players who would be very appealing to contending teams. People are way too concerned about depleting the system. I’m tired of them being renowned for assembling a great farm system but fielding a shit team at the SkyDome.

    • @ Eichorn’s Piano

      Toronto was never known as a team assembling great farm teams with crap results in the field. Until AA’s arrival, Blue Jays had a shit minor system. Don’t be a revisionist.

  67. A couple of weeks ago, I pulled up all I could online concerning d’Arnaud. I have some concerns about his swing.
    I didn’t see anything special about his hand speed. Which accounts for my thinking his swing was a bit long, late to contact if he guesses wrong. Worse, he hitches his hands back then has a medium leg lift. that is a lot of moving parts to time your load properly.

    Without superior wrists I can’t see that working consistently in the Bigs. Just what I saw. However, it tells me why the Jays have puffed him up. I think he is being dealt at high level.

    Besides, Jimenez of the 50% throw out rate, and line drive power, and receiving skills better than d’Arnaud, he is ready to catch around June, after his Tommy John. 22 years old, perfect. And behind him Nessy, not as good a bat, but a blue chip receiver. The Jays are still loaded at the position, trading d’Arnaud won’t hurt much at all.

  68. gotta pick up the pitching no matter what. JPA isn’t all that bad, and even his crappy obp could be carries on this team at the moment.. the only concern will be his ability to catch the ball..sadly..

  69. If we get Dickey, do we plug him in the two-hole to mess teams up between JJ and Morrow?

  70. It’s amazing how so many fans (including myself) are reacting to this in such a similar fashion. It went from a cautious approach of “only make the deal if DArnaud is not involved” to “we gotta give up to get, it’s ok if that means DArnaud has to go”. I guess 20 years is a long time, even though it kinda feels like yesterday. That’s when we would not have even flinched if the team was making a trade like this – a guy like TDA would have been perfectly fine as trade bait. Those were the glory years, when acquiring another solid piece to help you win now was always ok, regardless of the prospect name. That needs to be the mindset once again. No prospect is “untouchable” if you’re in the championship contender conversation, these opportunities come too far and few between. Next move should be to try and trade Gose for a nasty reliever or two, if there’s any trade partners that match. Gotta be as greedy as possible if you want to win the big one.

    • I get where you are coming from, but if AA refuses to pay relievers more than 2 year max, because they are so unstable, why would he trade acompetent everyday major leaguer for one?
      Me, I think that among Jansson, Delabar, and Sanchez, the Jays have strike throwing flame throwers to cover the 7th to the 9th. Jeffrees and Lincoln are huge arms that are also available. I’m not worried about the pen. Though I would rather have Black Magic than Cecil.

      • Gose is far from a competent everyday major leaguer. Have you seen him with the bat? Since when did speed and centre field defence make someone an everyday, competent mlb player? The guy doesn’t even put the ball in play enough to maybe justify his speed at the bottom of the order. Strikeout prone players are huge red flags. And the pen could use some more nastyness. None of those names stand out when you compare them to guys around the league – you’re reaching there.

        • Speed and defense has always been the 3 top requirements for a CF, if you have other tools than you let those first tools slide a little but always go defense (speed is important in CF) in that position. Shut the fuck up with all your dumb fucking trolling and opinion stated like its fact.

  71. I see that the jays and mets are having trouble getting a deal done. Let me offer my assistance. I have 20 years experience facilitating these types of transactions.

  72. once again wilner on twitter doing his condescending I am so smart you are so dumb routine to fans: “baffing how fans are so upset…”

  73. Wilner is a butt sucking company man, ignore him, he says anything to ingratiate himself to anyone who he answers to. Short form…he’s a toad.

  74. My concern with Dickey is at 38 he’s had 1 great year and 2 solid years, which is the real RA? The Cy Young year or the previous 2 where he was more of a #3.

    He doesn’t have the consistency or track record of a James Shield, and he doesn’t have the upside of a younger guy.

    Without knowing all the pieces involved it seems like we might be giving up a lot for a guy that is more likely to be another #2-3 than a true #1

  75. So we’re concerned about contending while thise group of ‘core players’ are in their prime. What about the group of potential ‘core players’ we’re trading away to make it happen?

  76. Sherman reporting this:

    “But right now it’s Dickey/Thole/prospect (told not elite) for d/Arnaud/Syndegaard/Buck/prospect (told not elite)”

    I feel bad for you and what will come from this, Stoeten haha.

  77. I’m a big supporter of AA but I’m not drinking the kool aid on this one. Still not official but I’d love to know what a deal for Porcello, Capano or an FA that would take a 3 year, $31 million would like. None of them are Dickey but you retain the flexibility (not to mention talent) that the young, controllable assets being mentioned provide. I hope this one falls through unless everyone’s getting this wrong and JPA is at the centre of the deal.

    • As a supporter what would you trade for the two pitchers that you mentioned.

      As well, if Guthrie received 3 years for 25 million, what lower level pitcher will sign for 3 for 31. Are you hoping the injury prone Marcum, maybe, why should he do that when he could 3 for 40 million.

      Ok swatto, the ball is in your field ,tee it up.

  78. Why the hell do we need to pay such a high price for another starter when we have 4 horses already?

    If we were talking travis d and snyndegaard for a good 1B or LF, then I’d understand. Any shitballer can be your 5th starter, I don’t like following the old atllanta braves model of assembling the perfect rotation while having major holes elsewhere.

    • Forgot about melky in LF, we’re covered there. But you know what i mean, they could use an upgrade on Adam Lovehandles

  79. tHAT IS WHY you were traded for a CF. you kept forgetting who was on your team.

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