The final hurdle appears to have been cleared– provided there isn’t so much money being exchanged that ol’ Bud’s office needs to get involved– as Andy Martino of the New York Daily news lays this one on us:

And he has an option year on his deal…

And to clarify:

Fantastic stuff.

Less fantastic: the “prospect” coming back to the Jays isn’t so much of one, according to a tweet from Jon Heyman. Canadian, though, for those of you who care. It’s catcher Mike Nickeas, born in Vancouver… in 1983. So he’s 29, and has a career wRC+ of 35 in 191 Major League plate appearances.

Far away Venezuelan outfielder Wulimer Becerra is the “non-elite” prospect headed New York’s way, Heyman adds.

At the time of writing, Bob McCown is saying he’s hopeful that Alex Anthopoulos will join him and Stephen Brunt on Prime Time Sports before the show ends at 7 PM (listen live here– though be warned, Gregg Zaun is due on for sure, and as I type this they’re talking about the damn CFL).

So, in the meantime, maybe you’d rather some alternate audio– and we’ve got it! (I’ve decided that– rather than trying to stuff it into its own post, I might as well include the DJF podcast we recorded this afternoon in this very post).

If you’re more inclined to download today’s podcast, hit up the mp3 link. The DJF iTunes page continues to be up and running, so get on over there and subscribe– or update the subscription you already have to find the latest episode (once it’s up). You can also find it via our podcast RSS feed. Uh… so yeah… maybe that’s all info we need for this post. Except for one last thing that’s just slightly kinda fucking awesome:

And Dickey tweets that he really is coming…

So there you go. Nails much?

Comments (644)

  1. According to Bet365.com, the Jays are now the favorite to win the WS. While it means nothing, it just give me a warm fuzzy feeling inside to see the Jays up that high.

  2. Does anyone know if AA ended up speaking to McCown tonight?

    • Yeah he was on PTS. Sounded drunk and surrounded by hookers. Can’t blame him.

    • Remember, AA says that if you hear a rumour about a trade its not true, therefore the Dickey trade is a hoax.

  3. Lol. Fastball grip.

  4. Jason Parks tweeted that the thinks the Jays system is still top 15.

    AFTER trading Darnaud, Syndergard, Niccolino, Hechevarria, Marisnick.

    Well done, AA.

  5. Just think, AA will have to add another piece in July for the playoff run. Who could irt be?

  6. I’m sorry if this has been said to adnauseum, but anybody who hates this trade simply isn’t a big picture thinker.

  7. Friends, why have many of you said Dickey makes 5M in 2013 when the tweet at the top of this article says Dickey gets 3/30 with $12 mil team option for 2016?

    3/30 meand he makes 10M in ’13, 10M in ’14 and 10M in ’15 with a 12M club option in ’16.

    This means Dickey’s contract was both redone and extended and he gets a 5M dollar raise in 2013.

    You experts have misled the public. Did you do this on purpose or a sign of being an amateur?

    Or is the tweet incorrect?

    The public deserves answers from you so let’s hear em.

    I betcha Mark and his outrageous 48M over 3 years now get shipped out ASAP.

    You’ll see!

    • Because technically his salary is 5M in ’13 12.5M in ’14 and 12.5M in ’15 which is 30 million over three years.

    • First of all, Dickey already gets $5 million in 2013 as a part of his old contract.

      The negotiations with AA were in relation to 2014-16. AA gave him $25 million over two years, with a $12 million option for 2016.

      The tweet totalled up the guaranteed money now owed to Dickey as $30 million over 3 years, which is accurate. However, that’s $5 mil in ’13, and probably $12 mil-ish in ’14 and ’15.

      There is a signing bonus which is payable immediately. That figure is unknown to me, which is why it’s “probably” $12 million in ’14 and ’15.

    • everywhere is misleading. i did catch earlier today they said that part of the two year extension (24million) was a signing bonus and the signing bonus is payable in 2013 ie now. so yes it is essentially 3/29 (i thought i heard AA say 2/24) with 12m team option 2016

      sounds like AA wants to keep buehrle around a lot. im indifferent. i do like what he brings to the table but im hesitant as he hasn’t had lots of success vs ALE. but again if he can pitch 500 and go 7innings per with 200+ ip fuck it keep him around. with payroll projected at around 130mil – jays will see 3m+ at the gates if all goes somewhat to plan at a $30/35 median ticket price? they will bring it all back at the gates forget the increased tv viewership and what the resulting airtime costs they can charge corresponding companies such as: rogers wireless rogers tv leafs raptors tfc (huge corporate divisional write-offs!!!) … damn it feels good to be a jays fan though.

      • Mark’s contract is outrageous. Mark makes 11M in 2013, which is totally reasonable. But he gets a huge raise in 2014 to 18M, and 19M in 2015. On average Mark makes 16M a year over 3 years.

        Mark is being moved and my guess is to the Cubs.

        The Cubs are looking for a pitcher. The Cubs want to dump Soriano and are willing to pay 26 of his 36M salary. Plus the Cubs have a great shortstop in Starlin Castro and a great pitcher in Jeff Samardzija.

        Jays could work a deal and trade Izturis and Mark and then move Starlin to second. Mark played with ChiSox so he likes the city and Jeff would make a good replacement for Mark on staff or Happ moves up to 5th starter.

        Jays need another bat and Soriano is still smokin em and could be on the bench and spot outfield starter. Plus the Jays cut a bit of salary.

        It’s doable and I’d try and do it if I was AA even if Starlin cannot be had.

        • Okay. Let’s try to think this through logically.

          You’ve clearly pushed in all the chips for 2013, and probably 2014 and ’15 too.

          Why would you intentionally torpedo your chances for that same time frame by dumping Buehrle this year, when he clearly fits in the Jays budget for this year?

          Could “another bat” be useful? Sure. 4th outfielder is not “another bat.” Trading away your 3rd starter to acquire a 4th outfielder is the definition of insanity.

          If you wanted Soriano for DH, fine. But I don’t think the Jays need a DH so badly that they screw up their perfectly fine rotation.

          • If Jays don’t trade Mark now they are stuck with him because as mentioned he makes 18M in 14and 19M in 15. In order to dump him after 13 Jays have to eat some of his salary or include more players.

            I’m not after Sorino, I’m after dumping Mark salary so Jays need to find a taker, and the Cubs tried to sign Sanchez so we know they have money and want a pitcher.

            Mark was not part of the Jays plan. AA didn’t want Mark, Mark was forced upon the Jays if they Jays wanted the others they had to take Mark’ salary too.

            This is the only reason Mark is here.

            Jays need another bat for sure. Sorino would DH and spot star in the outfield. Plus Jeff is a better pitcher than Mark, he’s cheaper and has more Ks.

            There is no way the Jay want to keep Mark. Mark historically gets hit hard in the ALE and this is well known, so why pay him 48M, twice the price of what Roger’s paid for the SkyDome.

        • The Cubs are not trading Castro for fucking Buehrle. You are a fucking moron.

        • @ok blue jays

          Seriously dude go play in fucking traffic

  8. damn it feels good to be back again! for all those hating bitches stuff it! vegas 8/1 MLB fav to win WS. choke a load!

  9. Not sure if anyone has posted it yet but here’s what the erudite Mets fans who read the New York Times are saying. Short version: almost all are crying. Makes me feel sorry for them except … we got Dickey!

    http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/12/17/r-a-dickey-climbs-mountains-the-mets-dig-holes/?hpw

  10. was there ever any bad blood between reyes and dickey ?? I saw a reference to that yesterday…..i have no idea if its true or not. any Mets fans out there who can answer that ???

    • There’s an image somewhere (twitter?) of Dickey wearing a t-shirt with Reyes plastered across the front, so I’m going to imagine this is not true.

  11. when people talk about the AL east being weaker this year they say the yanks are getting old and the rays lost shields, and the orioles did nothing.
    More importantly the yankees don’t have a starting catcher of LF – with the departure of 2 20+ HR hitters. The Rays lost Pena who hit under .200 but still had 17 jacks – and the forgotten BJ upton, who despite his shortcomings is still a solid baseball player.
    As for the O’s, there is no chance they play as well in tight games as they did last season. They have the talent to be around .500 but not much more
    And i dont think i even need to discuss the sox

    • Rays have the best rotation in the ALE despite losing Shields. Their pitchers are already pitching in the ALE and winning while the Jays have 3 starters coming from the NL. No one knows what they’ll do. Mark was in the AL but gets hit hard in the ALE.

      The Os, Yanks and Sox haven’t even started their Christmas shopping and it appears they are all waiting for Boxing Day sales.

      But in my view the ALE has NEVER been tighter. I forsee many lead changes throughout the season. And I can’t wait for it to all begin.

      • enjoy your time here Ricky! As soon as the bearded one wakes up from his crash from the caffeine and burritos, you’re otta here!

  12. Parkes sounds a lot more like a Blue Jays fans than he has in a long while…no more talking about how much better the Giants are on DJF podcasts?

  13. I know we need rotation seurity, but wouldn’t it makes sense for AA to try to exchange Happ for a righty DH.
    Only problem is the Jays are apparently at our max cap so we would need probably to add lind to any deals.
    Bonifacio and Sierra to the Bravs for Uggla, and some $ to pay his salary?
    I know we have already given up almost everyone- but why not go fully all in and try to grab willingham from the twins for like Happ, Sierra and a mid level prospect

    • Willingham for Sierra plus seems more like a mid-season deal, at least to me.

    • why the christ would we even entertain the thought of getting perhaps the WORST fielding 2B in the NL and that the Braves are trying to dump in Uggla?
      The fucker hits .220, and strikes out>200 times a year, a pace even KJ couldn’t match and he was pathetic.
      If he was on the Jays he w/b an official fukstik so why would we want to bring him over and trade 2 guys for him-one of which is a potential 70 steal guy in bonifacio-you must be on mescaline or something-fuksakes

      • +a million

        Can’t stand Uggla. And I don’t want to see them deal Bonifacio. If Rasmus struggles Boneface slides right into CF until Gose is ready.

  14. Remember when we signed Maicer Izturis, and it seemed that might be one of the significant moves this winter? Like there’d be him and maybe a mid-rotation starter added, hopefully?

    Haha.

  15. From the New York Times Baseball Blog for today:

    Once the deal to send R.A. Dickey to Toronto is finalized, the Mets will carve out another piece of history: They will become the first team to lose a batting champion and a Cy Young Award winner in back to back seasons, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Oh, and Dickey also led the National League in strikeouts, innings pitched, complete games and shutouts in 2012. In a twist, Jose Reyes, who won the National League batting title in 2011, and Dickey, who became the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young Award, appear on the verge of reuniting in Canada.

    [snip]

    The Mets have been very determined to save money. Indeed, they lopped about $50 million off this year’s payroll. The team paid Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo and Jason Bay to leave, and they traded Francisco Rodriguez and Carlos Beltran before they became free agents. In shedding these big contracts, many fans assumed the Mets would use the savings to sign other stars and stockpile young talent in their farm system. Yet other than signing David Wright and Jon Niese to contract extensions, Alderson has not made many meaningful signings. Frank Francisco, for instance, has been a bust in the bullpen, despite receiving a two-year deal.

    Confirmation IMO of the school of thought that the Wilpons are in desperate financial straits.

  16. I cant believe theres fuckin notches on here referring to Nose as a glorified bullpen arm. Prior to trading him these same clowns thought he was Roy Halladay ish potential.

    whatta joke lol

  17. Many interesting posts at the NY Times, like this one:
    Dickey was one of the best sports stories of the last few years. That the Mets chose not to better capitaliize on it is a shame. As a knuckle ball pitcher, Dickey’s career could likely span another 7-10 years, or almost as long as the catcher they acquired in return.

    Hope he has continued success and experiences what its like to succeed on a winning team.

  18. I feel like it would be a sensible move to trade Buehrle for a DH like Willingham or trade him for a lower level starter like Harang, Volquez, Masterson, etc.
    Then with the cap space we free up from ditching Buehrle we can ink Johnson to a 4 or 5 year deal paying him around 15-20 million a year (think anibal’s deal with the tigers)

    • Willingham has extreme trade value. He’s not going for fucking Buehrle.

      Buehrle is a salary dump… you aren’t getting much in return.

    • Buehrle’s contract will be very tough to move.

      • Right? Where is this fantasy coming from that the Jays could move him without including significant value to offset the bloated contract? You know, the way the Marlins did.

        I don’t dislike Buehrle, but he’s not tradable without eating a tonne of salary or taking back a similar contract. So… why would the Jays do that? He’s a great piece for them to have and to be overpaying given how they’re now constructed.

        • The longer the offseason goes, the less money AA would have to eat to move Buehrle if any at all.

          Of course, I highly doubt he wants to move Buehrle.

          But in a world where a team gave Jeremy Guthrie 3/25 because nobody wanted to play there, I wouldn’t be surprised if a team or two would take on Buehrle and his remaining 3/48.

          • yep and 3/48 is a lighter version of the sanchez contract and both work out to 16m per year, and in my view Buerhle is a better value. i’m sure the LAA would take him as would others.
            Personally I don’t think he is going anywhere as it took a fair bit of effort to nab him, but in this crazy market where a Sanchez or Ejax gets 16m, there w/b a suitor for Buerhle for sure.
            Where’s that OK asshole-he’ll tell me we can trade Buerhle for Buster Posey and matt cain

          • Come on, the longer the season goes the more AA has to eat of Mark’s salary.

            When the Fish signed Mark for 4 years and 58M his was making on average 14.5M a year. With only 3 years and 48M left on his contract Mark now averages 16M ayear.

            If he plays half a year for the Jays in ’13 the Jays pay half of his 11M salary in ’13, or 5.5M.

            This means Mark is still owed 42.5M for the remainder of his 2 1/2 contract. This means Mark now averages 18.5M a year for the remaining 2 years of the contract.

            Mark isn’t even worth 10M a year.

            Felix makes 20M a year in each of the next two years and Mark is being paid 2M less than Felix in ’14 and 1M less than Felix in ’15.

            Only an amateur like AA would allow a team to pick up such a dumb contract.

        • Agreed…. I wasn’t inferring that they should move him, just saying if they wanted to it wouldn’t be easy because of the contract. I like the veteran prescence he adds.

  19. Do the Jays close the dome every time R.A. Pitches?

    • not required…my guess there is a 60% chance of rain on most starts. Don’t Rogers own some news stations in case the league investigates?

      • I love to see proof that knuckleballs are more effective indoors. Nice that the Jays have that option, but not sure if its fact or myth.

      • Investigates? I expect the Jays can do whatever the fuck they want with their roof.

        • I vaguely recall that the league cracked down on them in the first year with the Dome. Their record was oddly better with it closed and on a couple of occasions they closed it for no other reason. I think after that the league had to approve it – but I have no idea what the situation is now.

  20. Obviously we can’t take AA at his word as he may still have an impact trade or two up his sleeve.

    But he suggested that he’s probably done other than the 25th man and possibly another reliever. I’m guessing if Oliver is back, the bullpen, is done, though.

    I’m gonna guess Jeff Baker at 1 year $1 million for the 25th man.

    And if Oliver retires, Jason Frasor for 1 year $2.5 million with a team option for 2014.

    So hopefully Oliver is back.

    • Heard Hentgen on Prime Time Sports last week, where they asked him whether he thinks Oliver would be back, and Hentgen didn’t sound very promising.

      Oliver wants to stay close to home in Texas to be with his kids.

    • Frasor is a fukstik. No way he would waste 2.5m on him IMO. More likely he would try and sign Lyon in a case like that

  21. hi

  22. I read that the mets were 14-6 the day after dickey pitched. maybe romero should be that guy

  23. Jays have added about 17 of WAR in just 1 year. pretty sick

  24. Nicknames of your newest Toronto Blue Jays:
    Melk Man
    La Melaza
    Chinstrap
    Double J
    Bobby Knuckles
    Bone Face

  25. The Blue Jays needed to go all in one way or another. Treading water while squandering the presence of a player like Bautista would be indefensible. So they had to sell off the farm and go all in or trade Bautista. Those were the only rational options. I think they picked the right one. Players like Bautista don’t come along all the time; if the money is there (and it is) take advantage of the window.

    And let me add: SUCK IT Farrell.

  26. The 25th man. That’s the big question left. Likely a platoon for Lind and quite cheap. What are the possible worthwhile options there?

    • How about Jason Giambi for the 25th man? 264/366/875 3 year splits against lefties (296/367/848 is 27 ABs last year versus lefties)? Wouldn’t demand much playing time, useful bat against lefties off the bench, could play 1B if needed, and though he has a steroid-connected past, had been considered for managerial jobs as recently as this year (i.e. could be a good veteran complement)…

  27. Was it really just over two months ago that the Jays finished the season with 73 wins and the manager wanted out, to persue his dream job?. A starting rotation was available to any pitcher whose arm wouldn’t fall off?.A left field problem,a shortstop who embarrassed the organzation,nobody to play second?
    A payroll limit set at 95 million as reported by the reliable and plugged in Shi Davidi. Beeston was a liar, who was misleading the fans.
    And oh yeah,Rogers is cheap.

    Two months later ,a couple of changes later and there’s still people bitching.
    Maybe, everybody should take a deep breath,realize exactly what the Jays team looks like now, and maybe enjoy the ride in 2013.
    I know I will.

    • Haha, the last bit is so true. It’s surprising how many people seem inherently negative. I blame the degeneracy of tv news.

    • There’s some stuff in the comment section from 2 months ago that would look pretty funny in retrospect.

      Lookin at you, Oakville!

      (I kid)

      • @James.

        Yes, but two months ago there was no indication that rogers would increase payroll above 125 million. AA himself said that he never knew Rogers would authorize the extra money.

        There was no indication that the manager, (farrell) that AA had confidence in right after the season ended would turn around & leave for his “dream job” & that Farrell wanted to leave last year after his BFF Francona got fired.

        Poster like Brad Fullmer Fan , Bob Mccowan & several others said that the franchise would go nowhere without getting a 125 million payroll.

        Now they have that payroll & can get very good players.

        AA deserves credit for having the high value prospects ready to trade, but the deals don’t get dome without Rogers approving a 125 million payroll.

        I loved listening to the podcast where Stoeten ,Parkes & Drew explain the true value of prospects & that it isn’t fantasy baseball etc..

        2013 will be so mugh fun so fans should enjoy it & stop worrying .

    • Dat radar

  28. I wonder how JPA/Thole will split catching duties?

    I’d guess the two most probable setups are Thole with Dickey and JPA otherwise, or a more general Thole vs rhp , Jpa vs lhp.

    The Stats!

    Thole Career

    vs RHP: 275/345 /346
    vs LHP: Just No.

    JPA

    vs RHP: 216/273/415
    vs LHP: 238/281/486

    Thole’s higher on base probable makes him a marginally better option vs RHP, but with improvement or even just variance this is too close to call, a wash. I believe it’s optimal to keep jpa as the regular catcher and Thole for Dickey. Jpa is the higher upside player as it’s likely easier for him to increase his on base than it is for Thole to raise his power. If JP can improve his contact or fluke into a high babip he could put in a high value season. His walk rate in 2011 wasn’t shabby either at 7.4%.

    I see those two as a perfectly acceptable catching tandem for the near future. The bullpen and 1B are the only two area’s of slight concern. A platoon at 1B with Lind and Raj/Sierra could be league average or even better.

    This team is looking real solid as constructed. The fact these guys are locked up for multiple years is also pretty fantastic. By the time their contracts are expiring we will have had 4 additional years to develop/add to a pretty solid group of players, of whom only Jham is potentially gone after this year. When attendance/viewership/merchandise sales skyrocket like they inevitably are going to, the Rogers suits will fully realize the potential they have in the Jays. With AA at the helm, this is a contender for the long term. The Jays are already up there vying for the highest viewership #’s , with a decades long tradition of ineptitude and crappy non-playoff bound teams. I can see 2013′s #’s dwarfing the 17% increase in viewership jays saw in 2012.

    Fun times.

  29. Transaction analysis of the Dickey trade by Baseball Prospectus. Interesting stuff regarding park effects and the Dome factor:

    The November trade that brought Jose Reyes, Josh Johnson and friends to Toronto made it clear that the Blue Jays were going for it. The Dickey trade—whether it’s finalized today, finalized tomorrow, or falls apart completely—reveals the lengths to which they’re willing to go.

    There were some signs late last season that the honeymoon period for Alex Anthopoulos might be coming to a close, which might have put some pressure on him to stop stockpiling and start dealing from strength. In this case, though, it’s easy to make the case that the GM’s own interests line up well with his team’s.

    Look around the AL East. The Red Sox have signed a few impact players, but they’ll have to have an even bigger bounceback than the Blue Jays to compete after a 69-win season. The suddenly cost-conscious Yankees lost a few key free agents and have largely limited their activity to re-signing old players (old both in the chronological sense and in the sense that they played for the Yankees last season). The Rays have lost B.J. Upton, James Shields, and Wade Davis and added Yunel Escobar, Wil Myers, and James Loney, which seems (in isolation) like a downgrade for 2013. The Orioles have done almost nothing to offset any regression that might be in store after their run-differential-defying 2012.

    While most of their rivals have treaded water or worse, the Jays have added roughly 12 projected WARP from Dickey, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Melky Cabrera, Maicer Izturis, and Emilio Bonifacio (while subtracting roughly five projected WARP from the departures of Escobar and Kelly Johnson). The team that wins the winter doesn’t always win 90 games, so we shouldn’t let an active offseason blind us to the Blue Jays’ remaining needs. But plug in all the new players and factor in the likelihood of improved health for Jose Bautista and a pitching staff that couldn’t stay on the field in 2012, and Toronto looks like the pre-season favorite (or at least the pre-New Year’s favorite) in the AL East.

    More than once (before today’s discussion of the deal with Jason Parks), Sam Miller and I have played the “Would you rather?” game with Dickey and a whole host of starters with worse results in 2012. It’s a good game to play with Dickey, since he combines recent results among the best in baseball with an unusually high uncertainty level for someone two months removed from a Cy Young season. As fantastic as Dickey has been at preventing runs over the past three years, and despite the big spike in strikeout rate last season with an accompanying improvement in control, he posted his first league-average ERA in 2010, turned 38 in October, and relies on a unique offering that he could conceivably lose his feel for as suddenly as he found it.

    Given their pitchers’ struggles to stay healthy last season, Dickey’ recent durability has to appeal to Toronto: the righty led the National League in starts and innings in his Cy Young year and hasn’t hit the DL since 2005. Between Dickey and Buehrle, the Jays have added two innings eaters who should offer some security should the fragile Johnson prove as breakable as he has before, though banking on any pitcher to take the ball can backfire. PECOTA projected roughly 190 innings with a mid-3.00s ERA for Dickey in Queens; adjust those numbers accordingly for the AL East and a better hitter’s ballpark, and Dickey starts to look a little less special, albeit still an incredible bargain for the $5 million he’ll earn. But it’s hard to say how much a projection system based on comparables and several seasons of past performance can help us project a pitcher with no perfect comparables and a 2012 approach and performance completely out of character with the rest of his career.

    Last week, I came down (maybe a little more softly than some) against the Royals’ decision to trade their top prospect (and some other prospects) for a pitcher. So why aren’t I blasting the Blue Jays for doing something similar? In short, because the Blue Jays are the better team. On the surface, their results from last season don’t look much different from the Royals’, but the Jays’ injury issues were so severe that it’s easier to believe that they weren’t playing up to their capabilities. More importantly, the Jays have already made one big trade this winter that put them in a position to win with one more major move. Even factoring in some expected improvement from the Royals’ young hitters, it’s tough to make the case that the Shields trade put them in the same position that the Dickey trade does Toronto.

    One thing we’ve learned over the last week: as much as teams might value promising, cost-controlled prospects, they aren’t afraid to trade them. Whether because teams have gotten better at quantifying prospect value or (maybe more likely) because the second wild card has put a playoff spot within reach of most teams, many top prospects have shifted from “untouchable” to “trade chip.” D’Arnaud isn’t quite the prospect that Myers is, but he’s close to the prospect Bauer was before last season. Last week, I looked at how former top prospects who were traded early on in their careers from 1990-2004 fared in (roughly) their first few years of service time. The results weren’t pretty: top-10 prospects traded before losing their rookie eligibility accrued roughly 5.0 WARP in their team control years, compared to roughly 12 WARP for top-10 prospects who weren’t traded. D’Arnaud might not be a top-10 guy—according to our in-house prospect experts, he’s on the cusp, tentatively just missing the Top 10 but making the Top 15—but he’s close enough to give rise to a sneaking suspicion that the Jays sold high.

    Regardless, d’Arnaud’s departure leaves the Jays with a weakness behind the plate. J.P. Arencibia’s power makes him an adequate offensive catcher, despite his lousy walk rate, but according to Max Marchi’s model, he was baseball’s worst receiver last season, costing the Jays over 20 runs due to framing. Thole is average in that respect, but he has little of Arencibia’s upside at the plate. Last year, he posted the worst TAv of any hitter who got at least 350 plate appearances: .206, 10 whole points below Clint Barmes.

    There’s one more factor to consider before we move on. On our internal mailing list, Dan Evans advanced the idea that one reason for Toronto’s faith in Dickey might have been the belief that the knuckleball would be better in a dome:

    The biggest component is that the knuckleballer has confidence that the environment won’t mess with the path of the pitch, which reassures the pitcher and allows the guy to cast it without concern. Dickey’s ability to throw strikes with his knuckleball was extraordinary in 2012…

    The unpredictability of the pitch is both its strength and worst enemy. When the pitcher has comfort that the elements will not adversely affect it, the knuckleball suddenly becomes a better pitch.

    Knuckleballers are a small sample, and knuckleballers in domes are a smaller sample still, so it’s difficult to test this theory, at least by looking at the results of knuckleball pitchers. Comparing raw open-air stats to indoors stats wouldn’t do it: to come up with anything definitive, you’d need to account for how good the pitcher was when he pitched in those parks, what their park factors were, how good the opposing lineup was, etc. It would be a lot of work for a result that might prove ambiguous anyway (and it doesn’t help that the career in-dome split stats available online appear to be borked.) According to University of Illinois Professor Emeritus Alan M. Nathan, an expert on baseball physics (and a BP guest author), “there is anecdotal evidence of the knuckleball being more effective indoors.” Nathan says a dome’s “constant atmosphere conditions means the pitch is easier to control,” but he knows of no “controlled experiments addressing the issue.” What we do know is that Dickey believes that pitching in a dome helps him, or did as of 2009 when he signed with the Twins:

    “I pitched there last year with the Mariners,” Dickey explains, “and I found that that constant climate where you have a little bit of humidity in the Dome and a little bit of air conditioner in your face proves to be a real nice kind of controlled atmosphere to throw it in. Whereas if you’re on the coasts somewhere and you get wind gusts up to 30 miles an hour, it could be a little more difficult sometimes.”

    Dickey may have changed his mind after posting a 4.76 ERA in 19 games in relief that season, but he’ll have another shot at indoor pitching next season (depending on the weather and the Blue Jays’ whims— whether the Rogers Centre’s roof is retracted during Dickey’s home starts might tell us whether the Jays think there’s something to the knuckleball dome theory.) And if he gets his extension, he’ll have two or three years beyond that to get accustomed to Canada, at a significantly more lucrative salary and an even higher risk to Toronto.

    *Update* Ken Rosenthal reports that the Jays and Dicky have agreed to a two-year, $25 million extension, making a physical the only obstacle to the deal going through (hopefully Toronto already knows about the no-UCL thing). Two years on top of 2013 will take Dickey through his age-40 season, bringing his total earnings up to an affordable $30 million for three years with Toronto.

    *Another update* The trade is now official, and the identities of the last two players have been revealed: Mike Nickeas went to Toronto, while prospect Wuilmer Becerra went to the Mets. This makes the deal even better for New York: Nickeas is a marginal backup catcher who’s almost 30 and can’t hit (though he appears to be a pretty good framer), while Becerra is a legitimate prospect. The Jays wanted another catcher with experience catching Dickey’s knuckleball in case Thole gets hurt, but they had to give up a “potential stud,” in the words of Jason Parks. Here’s a sneak preview from the Mets Top 10 list, which will be up on Tuesday; Becerra made the “Prospects on the rise” section.

    A seven-figure player signed by the Jays in the 2011 J2 market, 18-year-old Wuilmer Becerra has all the tools to climb prospect lists in 2013. His 2012 debut was cut short after getting hit in the face, but the Venezuelan outfielder has the type of size/speed/power potential that is rarely found in one package.

    —Ben Lindbergh

    Whenever a team trades a top prospect, it’s natural to dig for reasons that exist below the soil of the obvious. The most common discovery is a narrative that the team is selling high on goods they believe to be faulty, or at the very least likely to fall short of the recognized projection. This is one of the benefits of an intimate developmental system, where teams can form evaluations that have more depth than a limited physical profile can offer; other teams might be quite familiar with the sketch of a prospect based on baseball performance from eyewitness accounts, but those evaluations will rarely paint the complete picture of the player.

    This isn’t to suggest that all prospect trades have root in the grift; rather, just that it’s easy to form ulterior conclusions based on this premise. If someone is willing to trade you a major-league-ready prospect—one that has skills both at the plate and behind it—one can assume that the return for said prospect is substantial enough to warrant the move, or that the prospect might not be as special as the profile suggests. The latter leaves the blind searching for holes in the product and the sales pitch, scared of falling short of luxury and landing a lemon. ’Tis the nature of the barter, where coming out ahead has a sweeter taste than mutual benefit.

    I’ve been thinking about the discussed Blue Jays/Mets trade since it took its first breath on Twitter, and I’d be lying if I said my mind didn’t jump to conclusions beyond a mutually beneficial deal. My first thoughts were “Really? Both d’Arnaud and Syndergaard for Dickey? The Jays must not believe in d’Arnaud. I wonder if they fear his long-term stability behind the plate? What if his latest knee injury is a red flag being flown with a different shade? I wonder if they don’t believe in the bat? I wonder if they are more willing to trade him because they didn’t draft him and aren’t as emotionally invested in him?” Right or wrong, I assumed the worst, having convinced myself that smart teams don’t trade premium up-the-middle talent on the cusp of the majors. The Jays seem like a smart team. Something must be up.

    Having profiled the Jays system only days before, I returned to my player notes, combing over the five outside sources I had asked about Travis d’Arnaud, a prospect that Baseball Prospectus ended up ranking number one in the Toronto system. The notes featured far more superlatives than stains, with every source giving d’Arnaud a floor of a major-league regular, with his ceiling ranging anywhere from first-division starter to perennial all-star. The bat has some impact potential, with a hit tool that graded out in the average to plus range, with his power potential receiving similar scores.

    With a steady (but not spectacular) defensive skill-set, the total package, at least on paper, made d’Arnaud look like a can’t-miss talent, a cost-controlled major-league catcher with substantial upside. I started calling around, asking about the knee, asking about potential makeup issues that could limit his ceiling, about weaknesses that would cause him to fall flat at the highest level. The reports remained positive. Despite some injury setbacks, I couldn’t find one source that thought prior injuries to his back and his knee would derail his ability to function at the position, and despite some minor deficiencies in his game, I couldn’t find one source that thought he would fall flat.

    The secondary prospect in the deal is right-hander Noah Syndergaard, a tall Texan with big stuff and a good feel for pitching. The scouting report can make the lip quiver, thanks to a plus-plus fastball and two plus potential secondary offerings, but the inherent risk of pitching prospects and the professional resume that concludes at the Low-A level create a profile that is anything but a sure thing. Despite this uncertainty, Syndergaard has the type of promise that can haunt a team should he develop to maturity. In combination with d’Arnaud, the Jays are playing Russian roulette with Amityville Horror, a potential fright-fest that only winning at the major-league level can diminish should it appear.

    I gave up my pursuit of a narrative and settled in comfortably with the notion that the Blue Jays felt adding a top-of-the-rotation arm was worth trading away such a promising prospect package, and after taking another look at their projected 2013 roster, I not only understood the move, I started to appreciate the approach taken by the Jays front office. They feel they have a chance to win, and they are willing to part with some of the currency they’ve been saving up to enhance their odds. It’s a risk, but you can’t always rest on the accomplishments of your farm system when the product at the highest level is paramount to your own survival. Eventually, you have to play your hand. —Jason Parks

    Programming note: Look for the Mets Top 10 Prospects list, featuring d’Arnaud and Syndergaard, this week at BP. Jason will also update the Blue Jays Top 10 to reflect the trade later this winter.

    NEW YORK METS
    Team Audit | Player Cards | Depth Chart

    Return to Top

    Reportedly traded R.A. Dickey, Josh Thole, and Mike Nickeas to the Blue Jays in exchange for Travis D’Arnaud, Noah Syndergaard, John Buck and Wuilmer Becerra. [12/16]

    True to form, the Mets mucked up the PR aspects of trading their most popular pitcher, making much of their contract negotiation process public, lowballing the ace with below-market extension offers, and complaining about Dickey’s comments at a team function last week. That’s a shame, since the team was wise to trade Dickey when it did. If the Red Sox-style verbal backstabbing on the way out was intended to make fans sympathize with the team, it likely had the opposite effect. It was also entirely unnecessary: the perception that Dickey’s departure had anything to do with his penchant for running his mouth to the media, writing best-selling books, and climbing Kilimanjaro obscures how much sense it made on a talent level alone. It was a win both for the franchise and for Mets fans who were willing to look beyond 2013, which they should have been doing even before the deal.

    Earlier this month, Tom Verducci reported that the Blue Jays “weren’t enamored with the basic math” of a Dickey-for-Arencibia-and-Anthony Gose deal, but the Mets ended up with an even better return, importing two impact players instead of settling for stopgaps. They weren’t going to win any more with Dickey next season than they had in 2012, they’d already appeased the fans by extending David Wright, and they filled holes for the future. D’Arnaud is ready to compete for a starting job right now, with Buck (an average framer and declining hitter) serving as his veteran caddy. And Syndergaard gives forward-looking Mets fans license to dream of a Wheeler-Harvey-Syndergaard front of a future rotation that could still include Jon Niese.

    Sandy Alderson has perhaps been guilty of letting opportunities to improve his team pass by: How much better would the Mets’ system look with another top prospect or two from a much-rumored but never-materialized Jose Reyes deal? But when he has pulled the trigger on a trade for an in-demand veteran—first with Carlos Beltran, who brought back Wheeler, and now with Dickey—he’s made the Mets much better. —Ben Lindbergh

    • Briefly read the part about the indoor vs outdoor knuckleball environment, and that’s why I was wondering about it myself. Small sample size of indoor games, and it could just as easily be the opponent and/or the pitchers confidence that particular game that produce the results as much as the enviroment. My guess is that unless its a super windy day, it makes no difference either way.

    • That’s a helluva long post, Ballsdeep.
      Just to offer a counterpoint.
      It’s amazing the lengths that sabermetricians will go to analyze the minutae.
      Dickey led the National league in several major categories.
      He’s the reigning NL Cy Young award winner.
      Think about that for a moment.
      Think about the top 10 pitchers in the National league.Name them out loud.
      Dickey was the best.
      If he regressed 20 % ,he’d still probably be the Jays best pitcher.
      If the roof was opened or closed and it affected him 10%,does it matter.?
      The offense has improved enough to make up for it anyway.

      • Just did a cut and paste job on the BP article Radar.

        Thought it was an interesting take on the trade, and it has a neat analysis on the dome factor for knuckleballers.

        Now go to bed young fellow.

    • you can’t leave a comment longer than the post. can you?

    • Dude

  30. I’m actually impressed by the O’s. It seems like their management realized this year was a mirage and didn’t prematurely blow their load all over the free agent and trade markets.

    • Or it’s just another case of Angelos being Angelos: A cheap motherfucker reminiscent of a pre-November 2012 Rogers Communications Inc.

    • I don’t know if it was the Orioles thinking they were a mirage. If I was an Orioles fan after last year I wouldn’t want my management thinking that, I’d want to see an improvement. I think they missed on several free agents, and when you look at how their marquee free agents helped (or rather, didn’t help at all) over the past decade-plus of mediocrity it might have been better for them. I don’t think they will challenge in the division this year, but that doesn’t mean they will be going away.

  31. With TDA moving on and Thole and JPA being around. These guys make me feel a little bit better about the depth in the Org.

    10) A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade C+: Recovering from Tommy John. Assuming that goes well, he’s a solid defender with a decent bat, though he doesn’t have D’Arnaud’s power.

    11) Santiago Nessy, C, Grade C+: I buy into his defensive skills and he’s got plenty of power, but strike zone judgment is problematic. High ceiling, if he adapts well to A-ball his grade will move up quickly. Good catching depth in the system.

    • Exactly. It hurts to lose the three prospects, but we still have:

      1. Most importantly, loads of pitching talent (a nice balance of some very high ceiling prospects, like Sanchez, Norris, Osuna, Tirado and Smoral, and a few lower-risk prospects like Nolin and Stroman, not to mention Drabek and Hutchison);

      2. Gose, who should be a 2 WAR CF even if his bat never reaches its potential. Even if Rasmus succeeds this year and gets extended, Gose is still a valuable asset to be used or moved.

      3. A couple of decent catching prospects, although Arencibia and Thole are both under control for 4 years and the combination is not so terrible that it will prevent us from competing, so there’s no urgency to upgrade (that said, we need to find a way to have Jimenez practice catching Dickey); and

      4. A boat-load of toolsy young outfielders with high risk, a few of whom should start arriving by 2015.

  32. Yes Jimenez is a plus defender that hopefully bounces back from injury with a strong year. He is gonna be counted on to develop even more so now with the recent trading of Darnaud and Buck

  33. Hope Dickey wins another Cy Young and the jays win the world series….n Blue Jays are now my favorite A.L. team…..good luck guys

    • Please never change your handle. Welcome aboard the bandwagon, 310.

    • Glad to have you aboard. I think most of us here would gladly embrace the Mets as our NL team of choice. It will turn around down there in time.

    • I can’t wait to see how many idiot Phillies fan jump ship. I’ve seen one Blue Jay hat (outside of mine) in the 33 years I’ve followed the Jays living just outside of Philadelphia. Sure I’ll see some soon

      • I currently live on the other side of Philly, but grew up in Delaware as a Jays fan since 89. I met a real-life Toronto native and sports fan during my recent trip to New Orleans. To me, seeing a Jays hat in these parts is like seeing the endangered bald eagle.

  34. If things are going well for Dickey he might be considered a candidate to pitch a no hitter. Of course this would take some stars to align, but he has almost done it a few times in his career (he basically did in 2012 but an error by Wright was ruled a hit) and with his unique pitches we might see some expertly crafted complete games out of Dickey.

    • “If things are going well for Dickey he might be considered a candidate to pitch a no hitter”

      I think Dallas Braden and Homer Bailey render a comment like this even more eye-rolling-y than otherwise.

    • Phil Humber, Len Barker, and Charlie Robertson all threw perfect games. Jose Jimenez, Bud Smith and Bobo Holloman all threw no-hitters. I think any pitcher is a candidate to throw a no-hitter every time they take the mound.

      • bobo holloman? good one-didn’t know that
        Yeah, I mean there is a tremendous amount of luck that has to be on your side in many cases especially in the perfect games.
        BTW a guy named Dock Ellis threw a no no for Pittsburgh in the 70′s while on an acid trip or so he claims, so on any given day….

  35. Hello my name is Tom and I have been a Jays fan since

    • Shit I am using my phone thats why my fuck you bandwagoners speech sucked. But I do hope the Score. Digital will find a way to eliminate the tools. By tools. I mean those of you that think ts just a game. It is a hotdog, a beer an a fucking .calculator

  36. Before we lay out the WS parade route solely on the backs of these starters – let’s start analyzing the bullpen. I’m hoping that these guys can turn a majority of their starts into 7 inning games – with Janssen and a healthy Santos slamming the door on their opponents.

  37. Incredible!!!!

    Before the off-season, most of us would have been thrilled if we added one good SP and a good OF.

    Instead we added 3 really good SPs, a solid OF, an all-star SS and two pretty valuable utility types while only losing two guys that did anything worthwhile for the major league team (Escobar & CV) & prospects.

    Now, if we can not be crippled by the injury bug (like 2012), keep the clubhouse in check (unlike 2012) and not have every break go against us – we should have October baseball finally!!!!

    • In all fairness, Alvarez could be added to the one of the ‘worthwhile’ players moving on. While he was near awful in most starts he still provided 187 innings, more than can be said for the other 3 starters.

      • True – my apologies to Henderson….He did a nice job and I’d be fine with him rounding out a rotation

        Forgot him during this dream of a real 5 man rotation

  38. and to think, almost exactly a year ago today we were waking up to this horseshit:

    http://blogs.thescore.com/djf/2011/12/20/yu-cant-always-get-what-yu-want-darvish-won-by-rangers/

    • Who would’ve thought that a year later we’d have front end pitcher whose name would lead to even more excruciating puns than ‘yu’

  39. interesting to hear AA on the the fan 590 last night where he was talking about the likelihood (not very) of getting all yoiur prospects ready at the same time, along w/ your regulars, and forming a ready, cohesive whole. He was emphatically saying it wasn’t going to happen. kinda sheds some light on the in-house vs. trade/FA debate. When the organic approach was all the rage here this past summer, I mentioned on these boards how hard it was to get all players on the same page, mentally and temporally. Not knocking one approach or the other, but it is a serious problem when doing it organically.

  40. Aaand to think at one time I could not call myself we, the baseball team.

  41. Blair’s producer already made a RA Dickey Blue Jays song, of course to the tune of “Mickey”. That was fast.

  42. It was a good song I thought…

  43. Blair was talking about who should start opening day. Caller suggested Morrow had earned the slot and I don’t disagree. Blair thinks Dickey should be pitched between two other guys which entirely makes sense. Let the two original Jays pitchers work against the Indians and then pitch Johnson/Dickey/Buehrle against the Sox.

    • I’d love to see Dickey between Morrow and Johnson, probably in that order. The only problem with that is you get the two lefties back-to-back, and I’d rather see them split up.

      So maybe: Dickey, Morrow, Buehrle, Johnson, Romero.

      It’s one damn good problem to have, that’s for sure.

      • Eh, the two lefties are quite different. Buerhle’s a soft tosser, Romero not so much, and he has the big reverse platoon splits.

        • Well, you still go from Dickey’s knuckleball to Morrow’s power. And you have a soft-tossing lefty between two power right-handers. Then Romero the hard-throwing lefty then turns it right back over to a knuckler. That’s my thinking at least.

  44. So now what’s left? Lind and his platoon partner. If push comes to shove, I’d be fine with a Lind-Davis DH platoon. Anyone else mind that?

  45. All you guys on here are secretly GAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY !

  46. Johnson has to be our ace right? I think he’s got the most stuff, himself or Morrow.

    I’d have it

    Johnson
    Morrow
    Dickey
    Buerhle
    Romero

    I still hate this deal AA, We already added Johnson and Buerhle, I think he got caught up in everyone sucking his dick over the Miami deal and got fleeced. It is however finally nice to see that we’re going for it and not playing as an afterthought anymore.

    • did you just put dickey in the 3 spot for your rotation? and you still want people to value your opinion on this trade lol thats jokes

    • You do realize Dickey won the Cy Young, LAST YEAR!

    • This makes no sense. 2 hard throwing righties back-to-back when you have the ability to slot Dickey between them? 2 lefties back to back??

  47. For shits ‘n’ giggles, let’s compare the rotation now to what it was when the season ended:

    Pre trades

    Romero
    Morrow
    Villanueva
    Alvarez
    Laffey

    Total fWAR: 3.7; Total rWAR: 3.5; Total fWAR from all SP: 5.2 in 2012

    Post trades

    Morrow
    Dickey
    Johnson
    Buehrle
    Romero

    Total fWAR: 13.4; Total rWAR: 15.1

    Pretty solid upgrade, especially when last year’s total 3.5 fWAR includes starts to a bunch of guys making starts when injuries happened.

  48. Here’s how I’d like to see the rotation ordered:

    Ricky Dickey
    R.A. Romero
    Mark Morrow
    Brandon Buehrle
    J.A. Johnson

  49. Hey Johnson
    and Dickey
    then Morrow
    and Buehrle
    hello Romero

    How could you card this rotation any other way…oh Morrow might turn out to be the #1 but who cares it’s a blast knowing you can’t fuck up the order.

    • no you can’t fuck up that order. I do think they have to go with the reigning CY Young winner to start, which also allows him to pitch to the massholes. Then split the two lefties so no more than one is also in that series…we’re set.

      Might not be the smartest to set it up to bring full wrath on the bsoxs but it sure will feel fucking good!

      • I don’t know about that. Sure we want to stick it to the Sux as much as possible but they would probably not open with the goofball. The way I understand it ….his pitch will throw off timing and make John Farrell think about a new dream job. Anyway, he should be placed #2…and I don’t foresee ego problems anywhere.

  50. Some gold from the MLB.com Jays forums:

    “Here’s what I see happening next season:

    - D’Arnaud hits .300 with 28 homers in his first full season and wins ROY
    - Hecchavaria hits .300 and wins a GG next year
    - Henderson Alvarez wins 15 games next year
    - Yan Gomes hits 35 hrs next season
    - Travis Snider hits .300 next season
    - Justin Nicolino and Noah Syndergaard both get called up in Sept next season and face each other resulting in a no-decisions for both with neither giving up a run
    - Asher Wojciechowski gets called up next season and throws a no hitter vs the Jays
    - Anthony DeSclafani becomes the Marlins’ new stud closer

    Jays make the postseason but cant get past the ALCS vs the Royals (deja vu 1985).”

    Paranoia has taken over the stupid.

    http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20121216&content_id=40669276&vkey=news_tor&c_id=tor#disqus_thread

    • Yeah…..I actually saw a post where this dweeb claimed AA was loading up on veterans so he could replenish the farm at the trade deadline. Fuck! ……Hell even the new shitheads coming on here make me a little puke in the mouth. The price of success I guess…..I can only picture Stoeten driving his new Ford to the city limits with a pocket full of page views. It will be good

    • Oh man, I thought this place was bad the last few days…

    • the predictions were written by a Mayan

    • @ Indestructible
      That writing sounds familiar to the ‘OK Blue Jays’ cock smear that was here last night, which I am guessing Stoeten banned by now. Not too worry much like after the Mathis trade it lasts for a few days and then back Oakville69 imposters and the bearded one berating us every once-in-awhile.

      If it is based on page views he is making a killing..I haven’t left since Friday afternoon for more than a few sleeping hours.

    • Wow.

      “Yan Gomes hits 35 hrs next season”

      Yeah, good luck with that prediction….

    • Here’s what I see from the paranoid postings…

      - D’Arnaud (ON-BASE OF) .300 with (18) homers in his first full season and wins (A ROOKIE OF THE MONTH IN MAY)
      - Hecchavaria hits (.250 )and wins a GG next year
      - Henderson Alvarez wins 15 games next year (POSSIBLE)
      - Yan Gomes hits 35 hrs next season (BETWEEN AA & AAA)
      - Travis Snider hits 300 (GROUND-OUTS) next season
      - Justin Nicolino and Noah Syndergaard both get called up (to AAA) in next season and face each other resulting in a no-decisions for both with neither giving up a run
      - Asher Wojciechowski gets called up next season and (GETS A BATTER OUT) vs the Jays
      - Anthony DeSclafani becomes the Marlins’ new closer (FOR ALL 10 OF THEIR SAVE CHANCES)

  51. For anyone worried about losing d’Arnaud, thinking he might be the next Posey, here’s another comparable:

    catcher A:
    Drafted 1st round 33th overall,
    at age 21 rated #22 prospect in all baseball,
    at age 22 batted 274/342/502 in AAA PCL

    Catcher B:
    Drafted 1st round 37th overall,
    at age 22 rated #17 prospect in all baseball,
    at age 23 batted 333/380/595 in AAA PCL

    Catcher A was rated higher defensively before getting to the majors, Catcher A is Jeff Mathis, Catcher B is Travis d’Arnaud.

    • Couldn’t agree more – catching prospects are probably the biggest crapshoots of any position.

      He may become a great catcher or he may become Ben Petrick, Ben Davis or Eric Munson – all who were to be the next “great catcher”

  52. For anyone who has not seen this yet, last year’s ESPN E:60 piece on Dickey: the painful childhood with 2 sexual abusers, the All-American at Tennessee, the draft high, the non-UCL x-ray low, the minor league struggles, the Orel Hershhiser suggestion, the loyal wife, the cheating on said loyal wife, the triumphant rebirth . . . . it is all here.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6k57yPfh1c4

  53. Why can’t we just let D’Arnaud become who he’ll become… and who knows what that might be. It’s ok to simply leave it at “he could be really good”. In fact, I want him to be great, because it will reflect well on AA’s deal with the Phillies.

    I was thoroughly disappointed with Shi Davidi last night on Sportsnet when he was brought into Connected to “analyze” the trade. I wasn’t expecting any kind of earth shattering analysis, but I was a bit surprised Davidi took the bashing route, and focused on D’Arnaud’s injury risks and how he might not be as good as people say. So all of a sudden now that now that he’s no longer a Jay, he’s a completely different player? I get it though, he works for Rogers, so I take it with a grain of salt. Just hope fans realize this when listening to the Rogers broadcasts or sports “news”.

    • On that note I agree….he ain’t a Jay no more sister so who gives a fuck. Sorry for talking like a Red Sox fan but why should one discuss and or try to convince themselves that it would be warm and fuzzy to see a prospect we traded fail……so thanks for posting that because one of the most shittyish things I have been super twister analysing is the sudden variance of prospect porn opinion. Now all of a sudden the Jays former ladys of the night are suspect or downgraded to a 3 year window of nothingness. I think the Mets did awesome on this trade and they are on the right path. As a Jays Fan I wish our former prospects well…..Can we have a big giant “Here our are New Guys Photo op yet”?

      • I think its a sign of the times. We live in a world of overanalysis and way too much information. Everyone tries to put their own spin on things, kiss corporate ass, or both. Reality takes a back seat.

        • I think your right on that. The thing that is pissing me off is related to the fact that I am a Jays fan but also a fan of baseball. Aaaaaaand I am a little annoyed with the influx of fucking fair-weather , never had a job., oh I love the Jays now, shit head, fucking dumb fuck NHL sucking CFL dweebs who probably piss in pools.

          • I’m the same way. I’m just a big baseball fan in general. I can thank fantasy baseball for that. Been playing for years now, and I get into it quite a bit. I’m also a bit of a stat head, and I keep abreast of all news, Blue Jays or otherwise. I find it hilarious when people can’t keep their opinions unbiased, and also, when people judge transactions in hindsight. The only way to look at this trade is to say its a couple guys with future potential for a guy with tremendous success in the present. And judge how you feel about it today, not “oh we have to wait and see.” Whatever they end up doing down the road is unknown. If Dickey ends up being a complete bust, and D’Arnaud and Syndergaard end up in the hall of fame, it makes no difference. Don’t use the luxury of hindsight to make judgement after the fact. The only opinion should be your opinion right fucking now. And for me, I love it, because it shows that we’re actually going for it. We’re giving Bautista, Encarnacion and Morrow the team they need around them to get to the promise land. How often does this opportunity come up? Its only been what, 20 years?

          • Fair-weather fans are always going to show up. The Red Sox have had an influx of those fans since 2004, “pink-hatters” is what they are called. Every team in every league gets bandwagon fans when they start to win. That’s just part of sports.

      • I touched on this yesterday. Some guys on here now all the sudden are referring to Nose as a bullpen arm down the road. Like get real

        I dont see the point of shitting on these prospects all the sudden just hecause theyve been traded. stupid..

    • @Ron.

      Agreed.

      Davidi looks silly bashing TDA. I hope TDA does well just like fans hoped that Jeff Kent would do well in 1992. He was traded for Jeff Cone who helped win the series in 1992.

  54. might be late on this one… but did anyone see that Syndergaard tweeted a gay slur on Dec. 9?

    http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/newly-acquired-met-tweets-anti-gay-slur-article-1.1222644

    Alex didnt want another Yunny??

  55. Release Adam Lind already AA

  56. Anyone know – does AA not believe in doing press conferences to introduce new big name players?

    • Off-season perhaps not wanting to drag the players up here to Toronto. Bad enough they have to head to Florida for a physical. I presume at some point there’ll be a big player press conference ahead of spring training.

      • imagine that presser…
        Dickey, Buehrle, JJ, Reyes, Bonifacio, Izturis, wow
        Cabrera! always forget about Melky… holy shit this is crazy

        • They should take a page from the Miami Heat handbook on how to introduce new players. Have each one of them come out like wrestlers with smoke, fireworks and their own entrance music. That would be epic.

      • The home opener is going to blow the roof off Rogers Centre.

        I would love to go to the State of the Franchise meeting.

        AA & Beeston deserve a Wiser’s Clap when they show up.

  57. Thole may not be so much a “throw-in” as portrayed. He is definitely Dickey’s personal catcher (since 2010 Buffalo) but he has been a good OBP guy throughout his career (.375 in minors, .350 in majors before last year). Last year may be an anomaly due to concussion he had in May.

    http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/11/27/3685492/did-a-concussion-ruin-josh-tholes-season

    He has an extreme platoon split in 2009 thru 2011 (so as a LH batter, a good fit with JPA who has had better numbers vs. LH pitchers, especially in 2011). On his wiki page, there is this quote:

    After viewing Thole in the 2009 spring training, Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen “gushed” about Thole’s catcher skills.

    One fly in the soup is Thole’s CS%, almost running at will vs. Thole it seems.

    Again from wiki: In 2009, Thole stated, “My throwing is still coming along.” Umm, yeah, still waiting Josh.But, hey, welcome aboard. A .350 OBP with a few doubles (do not expect HRs, but who knows with the move away from Citi Field as he enters his “man strength” years).

    All in all, Thole may deserve more of a look than last year because of that concussion issue.

    Talk to Steve Delabar about strengthening that throwing arm, Josh. He already persuaded Cecil to try it.

    • @ dm, th ‘running at will’ may have to do with the fact that he catches a knucleballer, which is basically a green lite for everyone.

      • the bad CS% is not because of knuckleball, Dickey does not have bad SB/CS numbers at all; that is on Thole with “traditional” pitchers. Take out Dickey stats and you have 116 SBs and only 36 CS in last 3 years.

  58. The catching market next year seems half decent:

    Catchers

    John Buck (33)
    Jesus Flores (29)
    Ramon Hernandez (38)
    Gerald Laird (34)
    Brian McCann (30)
    Jose Molina (38)
    Dioner Navarro (30)
    Wil Nieves (36)
    Brayan Pena (32)
    Humberto Quintero (34)
    Carlos Ruiz (35)
    Jarrod Saltalamacchia (29)
    Geovany Soto (31)
    Kurt Suzuki (30) – $8.5MM club option with a $650K buyout

    – not sure it’s any better than this year – McCann is better than Napoli, but Pierzynski and Martin might be seen as better than Ruiz and Salty – regardless, it seems like there’s a lot more depth in catching in 2014, younger guys on average, etc

    Also, I imagine a lot more catching prospects/young controllable guys could be available – Jesus Montero, Grandal, etc should their teams suddenly find themselves looking for something else or in a different position. This year, only a few names were floated – JPA, TDA, Salty, etc

    So it could very well be AA felt NOW was the time to sell on high on the most touted catching prospect – before TDA sees any playing time, ship him out – mid-season would have been too late to acquire Dickey for example – TDA’s value could have been higher but there may not have been the right pitcher AA could acquire

  59. Thole’s CS would of course be low catching a knuckleballer – this is always the case as you time the velocity of the pitch with a calander, not a radar gun

  60. Wow less than 24 hours since trade was official and the New York media has already found something to hurt Syndergaards character. Not saying it was okay for Syndergaard to say it, but it was more of a bad joke then the Yunel thing. Still Syndergaard is going to have to explain it, as Andy martini says the.mets are looking into it.

    • Might be why AA was willing to consider trading him only because of the Yunel thing Toronto might not want anyone who says a anti gay remark. Yunel, Syndergaard might have joking or whatever but kind of looks bad on the organization for having two players in one year making those kind of remarks. Syndergaard I think was just a bad joke, don’t think he meant to offend anyone.

      • I only read the article that linked above but how can you say it was ‘just a bad joke’. I’m sorry but it hasn’t been socially acceptable to for close to 20 years to throw out such a slur. One thing to think it but a whole different thing to throw it out there for the whole world see. THE FUCK.

        • actually it has been socially acceptable, how do you think people develop the habit of using it. Slowly more and more social segments are condemning this type of slur, but in the mean time there are still segments that foster its use.

        • Saying it it was a bad joke on his part, means he made a joke and because of the reaction it’s obviously bad. Knowing how young Syndergaard is him falling in the same age group as me and others I can tell you these kind of jokes are made all the time. So to this age group alot of the time they are jokes but that doesn’t mean I or others think they are funny, but it does mean they do which most of the time means they didn’t mean to insult or hurt or offend anyone they’re just trying to get a laugh. Of course it offends people but just because it offends alot of people doesn’t mean Syndergaard meant to offend anyone and that’s why I believe he meant it has a joke not an insult towards a community of people.
          I’m not defending him and said it was wrong but can see how he meant it as a joke, now whether he actually did mean it as a joke I don’t know until he makes a statement on it.

    • OMG, the guy tweets “Nice crocs fag lol” at one of his friends who was, one presumes, wearing metrosexual footwear. This is a big deal? No, this is a total zero. Nobody with a life cares.

      • Baseball players are plain dumb. But people are too senative these days. If fags are so proud how could words hurt them?

        I mean, I’m a sexy smart straight English speaking eskimo, so go ahead and make all the jokes you wants about sexy people, smart people, straight people, English speaking people, and Eskimos, I wanna see if I’m offended.

      • Anyone who doesn’t think what was tweeted when we see a man in the following:

        - crocs
        - strap sandals of any kind
        - leather sandals (black guys can wear them, so they’re excepted)

        … is a damn liar.

    • What did Synder say?

  61. OF and 2b free agency options next year are strong, pitching and catching pretty good. 3b, SS, 1b are very weak.

    AA was definitely planning ahead.

    • EE is still the best DH/1b after next year’s free agency, other than possibly Konerko. Well played there double A

      Lots of solid pitching available from the 2-3 range and down, but JJ still looks like the cream of the crop

      Cano and JJ will be the two most desired players entering free agency that may or may not be extended by their teams – going to be interesting to see where Jays/Yanks are at by the deadline

      • Put down the beer bottle my friend. JJ was offered to all teams since July. No one wanted him. The winter meetings just ended. No one inquired to obtain JJ. In ’14 JJ wants more money than in ’13, so he’ll be more expensive. If some team wanted JJ they would’ve taken him from the FIsh before the sucker AA got em.

        JJ is damaged goods. He’s no longer a top pitcher. He is a Tommy John victim and now has inlamed shoulder issues.

        JJ will be takin a cut in pay next year.

        No team is going to pay a Tommy Johnner 13+ mil a year.

        Other than AA.

        Jays have 5 Tommy John guys right now.

  62. Has anyone seen or heard anything from Melky Cabrera? I have to keep reminding myself that he’s on the Jays. Everyone else they’ve acquired has at least tweeted something or talked to the media.

    Man that guy is so shady, and I love it.

  63. I wonder if any of the new additions get added to the Winter Tour; Jose is actually going to be in Toronto and then making the trip to Winnipeg (Saskatoon and Edmonton as the other legs of the trip):

    http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/tor/fan_forum/winter_tour.jsp#tab1

  64. the scary thing is that yes they gave up alot of pitching prospects this year (not just talking about nose. But if you look at there bullpen they jays got lots of hard throwing guys team controlled for 4-5 years. if the bp guys can get it together, all you got to say is WOW.

    • The pen is the second weakest part of the Jays, after the starting rotation.

      How many games do you really think the Jays will win in 2013?

      Rays have the best team top to bottom, especially pitching. The weaker hitting Rays played more than half the season without Longgoria and still were 17 games ahead of the Jays. Long is back, baby and Rays still have the best pitchin staff in the ALE and now have a better defensive shortstop than the Jays.

      • and how many games did the jays play without Bautista, Longoria being injured is irrelevant if you discount Jays injuries. What a dumb ass. And to think the Rays have the best pitching staff after losing James Shields you are a dumb ass . They have a lot of guys that have done well, but to assume outside of price the Helickson and others wont regress but that the jays pitchers will get injured is mentally stupid.

  65. WTF….I leave for a couple of hours and no new thread? I am guessing we have a whole of pile of links coming to sift thru…not unlike dumpster diving.

  66. Chesapeake Bay Reference: They drank from the waters off Baltimore and became Godzilla Monsters; but Mothra’s on her way – it’s over.

  67. Mets fan here who will watch the Jays with interest this year since Reyes and Dickey are two of my favorite all time Mets players. Just listened to the podcast and if Thole is an upgrade defensively, the catching situation is dire. He seemed to regress defensively every season in the big leagues (although the concussion may have played a role this season) and by the end of the year he lost his job to Kelly Shoppach because all of the pitchers outside of Dickey hated throwing to him.

    Still, Dickey is awesome and you guys will love watching him pitch for the next three years. He may also be a dark horse candidate for the right-handed DH position. Just throwing it out there.

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