It’s been a while since we’ve had a proper laying down of the law around here, mostly– I suspect– because the Jays weren’t a particularly interesting team to talk about for the majority of October and November, and also because he does his local radio hits on TSN radio now, and their archive is so much more frustrating to work with than the Fan 590′s is.
But with the Jays being perhaps the biggest mover and/or shaker of them all so far this off-season, all kinds of Jays content made it’s way into KLaw’s latest chat with readers over at ESPN.com, and I was there (or… well, I am now) to scoop it all up. (Though, of course, you should read the whole thing, and subscribe to ESPN Insider for all of Keith’s outstanding work.)
Klaw, do you see TDA continuing at C long term, or do the Mets need to think of him in the outfield or first base (and trading / mivng Ike Davis). If he can stay healthy and at C, the Dickey trade was a no brainer for the Mets, but if not …
d’Arnaud is a catcher. He’s not Posey where the bat might play elsewhere and still make him a star.
So where do you rank Toronto’s farm system now? 1-30
I haven’t done firm rankings yet, but top of my head I’d say 16-20 range.
Do you agree that d’Arnaud is a “scouting” prospect, as some have recently suggested? I’ve seen his numbers, from the hitters-friendly PCL, compared unfavourably to Yan Gomes and Jeff Mathis.
You largely have to discard hitters’ park numbers (it’s not the PCL specifically, but certain parks, like Vegas and Albuquerque) for top position players and focus instead on performance at other levels and the scouting reports. The main problem is that non-prospects can rake there but top prospects still face a ceiling on their overall stats – a natural .250 hitter might hit .320 in Albuquerque, but a natural .330 hitter won’t hit .400. I’ve seen d’Arnaud, and I believe he can hit and he’s coming into some power. He needs to play more than 88 games a year.
Can you elaborate on why you feel A. Sanchez is a much superior player to Syndegaard
Better stuff across the board, better delivery, better athlete. Does that cover it?
It should be noted that in a November chat, Law said that he actually ranked Justin Nicolino in between the other two members of the “Lansing 3,” so… stick that in your disappointment and smoke it.
Who you got? Norris or Osuna and why?
Osuna. Norris’ arm action has never impressed me and I think it’s behind the varying velocity and lack of command.
Mike P. Moffatt (London, ON)
Are there any obvious adjustments JP Arencibia make to stop being a total out machine?
I can’t imagine a guy with plate discipline that bad suddenly figuring out how to get on base.
Oh, don’t worry, JP fans. Keep reading, it gets better…
Thoughts on Stroman as a starter?You think DJ Davis will ever be able to hit enough to be a good outfielder?
Stroman has the stuff to start but his fastball is pretty flat, a function of his height. I think he’s got all the mental variables you’d want to see in a starter, but he might just end up too homer-prone to stay in the rotation.
I thought the biggest issue in trading d’Arnaud was not necessarily losing him, but being locked into Arencibia behind the plate. Does he still hold value because of his power? Should there be a time share with him and Thole?
Arencibia shouldn’t start for anyone, and I think the Jays are well aware of that.
By my count, six catchers had a higher BR WAR than Arencibia. When you say “he shouldn’t start for anyone”, maybe you’re overvaluing the catching market?
More likely WAR isn’t the be-all and end-all for discussions of player value, amirite?
Gruber’s Mullet (Toronto)
Is 2013 “make or break” for Colby Rasmus? Have to think the Jays org will make a decision one way or the other with Anthony Gose seemingly ready to play full time CF.
Yes. If he’s not already broke. Gose ain’t ready for full-time duty, though. The paperboy just put a little spin on Gose’s morning LA Times and Gose swung and missed.
(That joke worked much better when newspapers were a thing.)
Who are the next two best pitchers not in the Hall of Fame?
I have said this before but Dave Stieb belongs in the Hall before Jack Morris. This shouldn’t even be in dispute.
How surprising to you is the lack of development of Rasmus? Does TLR & co. get most of the blame, or does it fall more in the category that some guys just don’t pan out as expected?
Have to put some blame on Rasmus at this point. He got out of St. Louis and hasn’t improved.
Do you think Toronto will continue to bet on precieved “lower character” guys like Rasmus and Yunel now that both haven’t really panned out?
I don’t think they were betting on bad-character guys so much as they were betting on guys who appeared to be undervalued by their then-current teams.
In your write up of the Dickey trade you made the point that, despite the extension, the Jays were only trading for 1 year of Dickey. But wouldn’t it be correct to say that the Mets are only offering 1 year of Dickey (since that’s all they own the rights to), but that when judging the Jays side of the trade it should be assessed against 3 years, $31M since the trade was conditional on the extension?
No. The Jays acquired one year of Dickey for the players they gave up. They paid him for the other two years. This comes up every time there’s a trade-and-sign deal and the answer will never change.
Yeah… I get this one, but then again, I kinda don’t. I understand not assessing the deal based on the extension, but I’m not entirely clear why there at least isn’t some kind of value attached to the negotiation window that the deal was contingent on. I get that the window isn’t something the Mets “gave up,” so in the strictest technical sense it really is just one year of Dickey coming the Jays’ way, but it’s also not like the Jays were doing the deal for one year and hoping for the best regarding an extension. I don’t know… not that it really matters, but to me it’s kind of irrelevant whether it happened to be the Jays or the Mets who signed Dickey at those terms– the contract was as much a part of the trade as the prospects. Though… sure, since the Mets weren’t going to sign him at those terms, I suppose it’s not fair to their end of the assessment to act like they were giving up more than the single year.
Ultimately, of course… whatever. R.A. Dickey!