Sloooooow time of the year, huh? Here’s what’s what…

Over at Getting Blanked, Craig Robinson’s fortnightly infographic is entirely Jays-related this week, as he looks at the club’s draft history from 1996 to 2005. Awesome stuff– as you can maybe tell from the sneak peak above. Or maybe not. All the more reason to go check it out, no?

Shi Davidi writes at Sportsnet that he figures Henry Blanco is the favourite to go into the season as the Jays’ backup catcher, with Josh Thole, and his $1.2-million arbitration projection, being optioned to Buffalo– saving the club some money to splash on another reliever.

Regarding Blanco, at Bluebird Banter, Tom Dakers writes that he hates the idea. I’m not necessarily of that opinion, so… maybe this will actually give me something to write about this afternoon.

As for a reliever, indeed, Ken Rosenthal reiterates what we were hearing yesterday: that the Jays are among the club’s still looking for a late-inning.

Something the Jays almost certainly won’t be interested in, despite the Adam Lind Situation (the Adam Lind Situation being, of course, the fact that Adam Lind is still slated to take regular-ish at bats for this damn team), is Manny Ramirez. Jon Heyman tweets that he’s still hoping for a comeback.

Another Heyman tweet says that the Red Sox/Mike Napoli mess is slowly coming to a conclusion, and that another AL team or two are still in on the catcher-ish first baseman with the wonky hip.

Speaking of the Red Sox, it sounds like Terry Francona’s book is going to be hilarious. The Toronto Sun, among many others, has the excerpt that’s been released… where Francona recalls Sox ownership talking about the club’s need for sexier players. Hahahahaha!

Elsewhere in the Sun, Bob Elliott has a large feature on John Gibbons. Definitely worth the read, though it also has a lot of talk about the relative lack of success of managers coming back for their second go-round with a club, which, y’know, is pretty meaningless in giving us any sort of idea of what to expect from the second Gibbers era, interesting as it might be.

Mike Baumann of predicts a Jays-Nationals World Series… or… actually it’s not a prediction, he says, just an outcome possible enough to look into? I don’t know…

Speaking of the Nationals, yeah… uh… they’re pretty seriously terrific. In today’s URL Weaver at Getting Blanked, Drew looks at their just why that is. Hint: young talent.

Elsewhere at Getting Blanked, Drew wonders if maybe defence doesn’t matter.

Prospect Dan Norris is rocking some full-on Jesus beard on Instagram.

The Blue Jay Hunter wonders about the possibility of Josh Johnson signing an extension with the Jays, and like a lot of people doesn’t see how they could do it, sight unseen. I get that, but it’s not exactly going to be easy for either side to figure on what sort of timing best suits their end of the mutual risk equation. Dustin McGowan signed an extension at the end of camp last year, and even though we’re talking a whole lot more money with Johnson, I still wouldn’t rule out the possibility. Then again, is the rotation that much worse in 2014 with someone like Drew Hutchison in Johnson’s place? (Yes, probably).

Lastly, I’m a little weird with prospecting via the internet that doesn’t credit any source material– not that I’m not a little guilty of this myself sometimes– but there are a couple Roberto Osuna videos in a post about him at Bluebird Banter, and… so… sure. Check it out.

Comments (35)

  1. jim thome is better than lind

  2. Thanks as always for the link Stoeten. regarding Davidi’s piece, I personally don’t like the highly speculative “here’s how you get an arm if Blanco shows up at ST and can still play” dynamic.

    Blanco could, in fact, catch Dickey I suppose (as he’s done it before which I had totally forgotten). I would guess, however, that his bat would be less valuable than Thole’s. Save 1M to take a flyer on another arm isn’t really that great of a plan in my opinion.

  3. Davidi says “Oliver’s $3 million is not available to the team if he walks away.”
    Other than Davidi, says who?

    Blue Jays site, and Roto World are all reporting
    that Chad Beck has been outrighted to Buffalo.

    Looks like he finally cleared waivers
    and is in the fold, though not on the 40 man.
    This can’t be a bad thing

    • Anthopolous said. That was a commitment they made before they spent all of the money. The 3 million is not available to them; it would be considered relief from the budget they already went over if Oliver chose to retire.

      • I find it amusing that people take AA’s word on budget considerations at face value. What he’s saying may be true. On the other hand, he’s hardly going to announce that he has $x remaining.

    • Are you fucking kidding me? How the fuck is that rhetorical? Davidi reported it because Anthopolous said it. If Anthopolous saying anything matters not one bit then why bring up what Davidi says at all? Or what any reporter says?

      If AA always lies what the fuck difference does it make whether one man says “Oliver’s $3 million is not available to the team if he walks away” or every man says it. You ask a question that begs for unanimity (or at least other supporters) but simultaneously dismiss the meaning of any consensus that might exist.

      There is no logical point to your rhetorical question if you also believe AA can’t be trusted. you might as well ask “AA says . . . other than AA , says who?”

  4. Who are these people with crystal balls suggesting the Jays can’t afford to extend Johnson?

    Are these the same people that proclaimed payroll would not exceed $100 million in 2013?

    Nobody on the outside knows how high the Jays budget can go.

    Heck, Paul Beeston has suggested $140 – $150 million is possible. Considering Rogers just delivered on Beeston/AA’s promise that they’d spend when the time is right, why not trust Beeston that payroll can get that high.

    Both AA and JJ’s agent Matt Sosnick have talked about possibly extending the marriage.

    Even if payroll can’t be stretched much further for 2014, it’s not as though Buehrle and/or Romero couldn’t be traded to keep the 3 guys with ace potential (Dickey, Johnson & Morrow) together.

    • Because (according to Baseball Reference) the Jays’ 2015-2016 salary is already estimated at ~$145 million without the Jays doing anything else. Even if you take him at his word, and I think there’s no reason not to, the Jays would have to accommodate a salary north of $160 million to extend Johnson.

      Then even if that’s the real ceiling it raises other questions, like would that leave the Jays with room to extend players like Lawrie down the road? What about having room left to fill other holes in the roster through free agency?

      So I think it would be difficult unless the Jays find a way to move some of their salary commitments… either that or there’d have to be a lot more money than we’ve been told is available

    • In the upcoming draft, the Yankees have their own pick
      plus comp picks for Swisher and Soriano.
      That gives them picks 27, 31 and 32.

      Those picks should yield three very good prospects.

      Next year, I see the Jays doing the same thing with Johnson,
      giving him a qualifying offer and taking the pick.

      To replace JJ, they can put Hutch in the rotation
      or get another guy in a trade or from the FA pool

      Sure, an extension is possible.
      But my bet is on the qualifying offer

  5. Dan Norris looks like every man in Oregon including his choice of vehicle. I may be standing next to Dan Norris right now. I may be Dan Norris.

    • I haven’t been to Oregon, but I hazard a guess its similar to my beloved Vancouver Island. Because I swear I just passed Dan Norris in his VW. Or was that you OregonJay?

  6. It seems bizarre that the Jay’s plan would be to start Blanco over Thole in part to save $500k (less than 0.4% of team salary). Blanco seems like a great security blanket if either JP or Thole get injured in Spring Training. Maybe a good clubhouse teacher to help the young catchers in Spring Training if you buy that sort of stuff.

  7. I still get the feeling that a ton of fans in Toronto have no idea how good of a pitcher Josh Johnson is. Questions comparing the rotation with JJ or Hutch further my thought. This guy is Cy Young calibre

    • 100% agree,
      Johnson is a dominating Ace,
      I can’t even imagine having to face him, dickey and morrow in succession.

      • Ditto with you guys. Johnson, Dickey and Morrow locked up for the foreseeable future would really cement the rotation. And if Romero bounces back, holy smokes!

  8. Dan Norris looks like he’ll fit right in with the Toronto scene kids. Get that man a parking spot for his micro bus in a neighbourhood that’s not quite cool yet, but might be in a couple of years, and is close to a bike path to the Dome.

  9. So in all the time the Jays have existed, they’ve drafted 9 guys that have produced at least 10 WAR in the majors.

    So every 3-4 years on average we will draft one guy that ends up making 10 WAR. I think I just quit following the minors! Who’s a free agent next year?

  10. The funniest part about Bob Elliot’s meaningless talk of the lack of success of second go round managers is that the only number he gave that didn’t seem to be cherry picked to prove a point, showed that second time managers were pretty damn successful.

    He said that re-hires combined have a “so-so .517 winning percentage”. That would make the combined winning percentage of non re-hires under .500.

    • elliots a tard

    • Your math is wrong. You’ve inherently assumed that the second time managers always played first time managers. Obviously that’s not the case as there have been many times second time managers played other second time managers and first timer mangers played other first time managers.

      Might want to check you math before criticizing some one else’s.

      • And what do you think the chances are that the winning % for second time managers against other second time managers is anything other than .500?

      • No it’s your math that’s wrong.

        The .517 mark for second act managers includes their record against fellow second changers.

        As does the (slightly) below .500 mark for first time managers include their games against first time managers.

        The record is more skewed in favor of second-go-round managers if you were to for some reason exclude their games against each other.

        • Wow…there’s some impressive misunderstanding of how percentages work around here.

          All the win percentages are based on different numbers of games played. You can’t just sum them all up and expect them to add to 1.000.

          ugh…nevermind, I give up

          • Who said anything about them adding up?

            But if you pull out any sub-set of managers who have an above .500 record combined the remaining set of managers will be below .500. The distance each of the sets will be from .500 will be dependent on the relative sizes of the 2 groups.

            In simpler terms, if you have 50 games, there will be 50 wins and 50 loses in that set if you pull out a group that is 6-4 (.600) you could only be left with a group that is 44-46 (.489)

            .489 and 600 do not add up to 1.000, but being mutually exclusive, one being above .5 does ensure that the other is below.

          • @ Yay Math

            But that’s exactly the problem…the sets are NOT mutually exclusive.

            Your 50 game example involves two mutually exclusive states and a common sample. This is not mathematically equivalent to the original statistic in which the states are neither mutally exclusive nor having a common sample.

            I’ll drop it here at the risk of turning this into a math blog…but think about it.

            • In this case the states actually are mutually exclusive. The population being all MLB games ever played times two.

              For all the wins in MLB history the winning team was either managed by a manager on his second go or it wasn’t, and likewise for losses each of them was accrued by a manager that either was or wasn’t on their second go.

              As their is no third state to assign wins or losses, and all games t

              • To finish that sentence…

                As there is no third group to assign wins or losses to, and history has an equal number of wins and losses: a group which acquires more wins than losses will by definition leave less wins than loses for the remainder.

  11. Black magic is back!

  12. Not to be that guy, but if Josh Johnson leaves as a free agent, Roy Halladay is almost certain to be a free agent next season.

    • Perhaps more importantly, one of Sanchez, osuna, Norris, Hutchinson, happ, etc. should have emerged as a low-cost back of the rotation piece by then.

      Don’t get me wrong, I want JJ, but do you really need the whole 2013 rotation locked up at high AAV for the next 3 years?

      • Norris? He’s YEARS away

        • That’s exactly the point. You already need these prospect to be years away. There’s only one spot in the rotation that’s up for grabs before 2015. The rest are locked a big money:

          Dickey – 2013 – 2015, $12M/yr
          Morrow – 2013 – 2015, $8/yr
          Ricky – 2013 – 2015, $7.75M/yr
          Buerle – 2013 – 2015, $20M/yr

          Even if Romero and Buerle are terrible, you have to think they’ll get every chance to work out with those contracts, and would be tough to move if they played poorly.

          Let’s say you get JJ below-market by signing him right now for 5 years 80 mil (probably the best you could possibly get him to agree to). Then there would be no spots open until 2016 when Buerle, Romero, or Morrow were dropped.

          The fact the prospects are a long way off is good problem now.

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