klawdredd

KLaw Week continues over at ESPN.com, and this afternoon Keith has had his second of two chats with readers in the wake of the release of his Top 100 prospects list, and all the goodies that go with it. So, here are all the Jays-related nuggets from both Tuesday’s chat and today’s chat– but, of course, all the non-Jays stuff is gold too, so you should probably check them both out in full. I mean… what else are you going to do? It’s damn February.

Kyle (Toronto)
Noticed Syndergaard was ranked relatively low on your list compared to most top prospects list, reasons?
Klaw
Those other lists are wrong, obviously.

Ben (Leland Grove)
Why did James Paxton miss out?
Klaw
Poor command, lack of an average third pitch, walked a man every other inning as a 23-year-old in AA.

Ben (Ottawa)
You like Toronto’s decision to basically make Sanchez untouchable while making D’Arnaud available?
Klaw
Yes, I do.

Tim (Smithtown)
Most overrated prospect by fans…..Mike Olt?
Klaw
He’d be in the mix. Solid player, not a star. Syndergaard, but that may just be a function of unverified reports he threw 102 plus the coverage he got when he was traded. Also a solid prospect. I’m ignoring the guys like Ruf, Gattis, Junior Lake, Szczur, fringy guys who are treated by their own fans as future stars.

@Jaypers413 (IL)
Syndergaard at the bottom of the list – meaning, you aren’t too optimistic he’ll develop the curveball?
Klaw
Yes, that is the primary reason he’s not higher on the list.

Sid Booker (Philadelphia)
Do you see Marcus Stroman in this list next year?
Klaw
It’s equally likely that he’s no longer eligible because he’s in the Blue Jays’ pen.

Jeff (Calgary)
Can you explain the difference of baserunning skill and speed? I have seen you mention Hamilton vs. DJ Davis as an example. Is it possible for Davis to improve? Thank you.
Klaw
Plenty of guys can run but can’t run the bases – meaning, they are fast, but can’t read pitchers, or read balls in play, to add value by taking extra bases.

David (Vermont)
What your thoughts regarding a trade of Vernon Wells to the Mets if Angels pay a majority of his contract? Mets need OF help and Wells has worn out his welcome in LA. Low risk hight reward possibility?
Klaw
What’s the reward? He’s had one decent season in the last four.

Jerry (NYC)
Can you give a more in-depth scouting report on Sean Nolin?
Klaw
Usually an average fastball, best days will show a little better with two average breaking balls but a fringy change. Commands the fastball well. Fourth starter ceiling most likely. Power LHP out of pen if not.

Luis (Denver)
You used to live or at least spend a lot of time in Ontario so I was curious what your thoughts on their ban on pitbulls is and Buerhle’s situation?
Klaw
I was never a resident there, but this seems to be like punishing the dogs for the irresponsibility of people.

Comments (86)

  1. David (Vermont) made me laugh.

  2. I like that law never just assumes a young pitcher will develop a nasty curve ball like some other guys do. That’s a giant assumption

  3. Stroman in the pen this year would be nice but my guess is that the suspension will slow his rise to the big team until next year.

    Vernon to the Mets would be ridiculous. Don’t they remember Jason Bay?

    Baserunning skill vs. speed is a great point. The fastest guy is not always as a big an asset as the smartest guy. Here’s hoping Rock gets Lawrie on the right track this year.

    • I want the Jays to use him if he earns it. Fuck all of this shit about options, we need our best players on the field (or roster at least) this season. Sale’s development certainly wasn’t slowed in any way… Giving that it is less likely he ends up as a starter anyways, let’s get him on the Kimbrel path to bullpen domination now.

  4. How much would it cost to resign Johnson now with the Felix deal?

    • Not on the same lvl contract wise i wouldn’t think. Johnson has the ability to be an Ace. Felix has proven he is one.

      So i really dont know, and i can’t see AA doing a 5-7 year deal, even for a 29 year old Ace like guy.

      • Is there enough space for a David price when he hits the market

        • I would say no, not with the backend loaded contracts of Reyes and Mark, unless they trade one of the two.

        • I love the optimism that we’re now the Yankees (captured best by this guys name, Jays2013). AA’s biggest contract ever is what, Melky/RA? No way we touch Price’s cost on the FA market. It’s fun to think these days like the Yankees instead of Oakland though. F*ck Farrell.

    • Johnson isn’t Felix (mostly because of injuries) so my wishful thinking is that 4/80 could get it done.

      Of course, if he waits and has a big year he’ll get 5/120+ with ease.

    • I honestly think that Johnson could be locked up for 15-17 million/year. Just because he’s older, hasn’t been spectacular last 2 years, and most of all he gets injured a lot.

      a lot.

    • We were just talking about this in the office. Call me crazy, but I could see a deal getting done sooner than later. There’s a lot to be gained by both sides by agreeing on what I’d have to assume is a smaller, shorter deal where mutual risk is assumed. And there’s a lot to be lost by one of them– Johnson if he’s not healthy, the Jays if he pitches like an ace– if not.

      If I’m Johnson, given my injury history, I’d be interested in getting paid now, rather than risking it all on 2013. And if I’m the Jays, I’d be very interested in locking him up at a price that better takes into account the risks than you’d wind up paying at the end of the year.

      Then again, if Johnson proves healthy and proves to be an ace over the course of the year, maybe you’re more OK with a much, much bigger mid-season extension, given the added certainty of the extra data on him. Plus, Drew Hutchison could be a nice little pitcher for them to replace him with in 2014– though obviously without the ace ceiling– and the year after you’re probably (hopefully) looking at Aaron Sanchez. So… maybe they’re not as necessarily that interested at the moment.

      • Exactly, if Johnson doesn’t come back, jays still have depth at the SP position, and they get back a first round comp pick, so it wouldn’t be the worst thing to happen

      • Losing Johnson at the end of the year also means draft-pick compensation.

        I’m all for signing him early, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Jays viewed him as a one year option.

        • Draft pick compensation from who? A big market team that will have a low first round pick anyway? or (better yet) a comp pick from a team that also signed another qualifying free agent, higher ranked than johnson, thus pushing the jays comp pick even further down?

          I think the jays should really extend the guy now to a 3 year deal, 4th year with a team option….for something in the mid teens in millions per year.

          I dont see how he turns this down with injury risk and overall possible failure risk.

          the odds that the contract is terrible for the jays is rather low.

      • I think theyre going to let JJ go. Hes too big a risk until he has a great 2013, and he’lll be too expensive if he does.

        I think Dickey was brought in to replace JJ, and the thought process was something like, they were happy with the team after The Trade, and liked their chances. But they knew they had to replace JJ and they did so with Dickey, only with the added bonus of having one year of both of them.

        If you thino about it, there isnt a whole hell of a lot of difference between pre- Dickey trade 2013 Jays and current 2014 Jays.

        Dickey was brought in to ensure there was no drop offafter JJ leaves.

        • I think the entire let JJ walk for the draft pick crowd is gonna pipe down once they watch him pitch.
          He’s like a bigger Brandon Morrow.

          • Yup. I’d be happy to see AA work out 3 years with 2 mutual options at $16MM to $18MM per year. Fuck the draft pick. I’ll take a potential ace.

            • Its not abiut the draft pick at all. Its about payroll, and even though we dont know where it willl be (obviously this offseason surprised everyone) I just dont see a $150+ payroll likely, and thats where we’ll be with a Johnson extension.

              Some ppl think that because payroll went up big this offsason, that means its likely to go up big again. I take the alternate opinion. The big payroll jump makes it LESS likely we see another big jump, not more so.

              • I don’t agree. Attendance will dictate payroll. If 3M fans show up this year, I’m not an economics major but that’s a lot more revenue. If they make playoffs even more. No reason to think they won’t roll that back into the team. A winning team will be a gold mine for the owners.

      • I think the Jays have done the smart thing so far and will get some first hand looks at him in Spring Training before doing an extension. I think the team also knows that players are usually open to mid-season extensions too so there is no reason to rush without getting their medical staff some time with him.

        If they don’t have him locked up in the spring, they are probably interested in seeing how he does against the AL East. If he is isn’t locked up mid-season, they probably have concerns or he won’t sign a friendly enough deal.

        • Josh Johnson is an absolute beast. Jays should extend him for at least 2 more provided they can get him for 85 cents on the dollar. I agree with Stoten, both sides can assume some risk here. I think Hutch and Sanchez are going to be good but I’d much rather those guys coming in without the added pressure of filling the cleats of an All Star.

          Can never have enough good pitching, my vote (because I know you’re listening AA) is to extend.

        • Morrow’s contract has ridiculous value and he could be better than Johnson

      • As much sense as it makes for the Jays to let Johnson walk for a draft pick next winter–Sanchez, Hutchison, Drabek, etc. fighting for rotation spots, Johnson too expensive, etc.–how much more than a draft pick could the Jays get if they signed him to a long term deal, and traded him away in a couple of seasons to make room for Sanchez? We’d be restocking the farm, no? At the very least, we’d be getting better than a comp pick.

        • Drabek? did u say drabek? The only roster spot he will be fighting for anytime soon is the Buffalo Bisons. Drabek is not good. Sanchez is unlikely to be ready next year. Shit the kid has not even pitched A ball. I think the Jays will have in start in high A this year, perhaps a midseason bump to AA, and then a full year between AA and AAA in 2014 before possible september call up.

          there is no need to rush him up here with the depth in the rotation.

      • I think it all depends how Johnson looks in spring training. He is a year further removed from his shoulder issues. Although it is a shoulder he wouldn’t be the first to come back to ace level after having problems (Chris Carpenter). If he comes out strong in spring they Jays need to lock him up. If you want to win you don’t make room for guys like Hutchison and Sanchez outright. They will get their look through injuries/September call up. As long as they have options they are great depth. Johnson would be a great piece to have through 2015. I think a deal gets done before the season begins or very early in the season. As long as he is up to par with his stuff.

        • Let Johnson become a FA, and lets get Verlander instead

          • @dawg if the jays cleared some space; David price would be a realistic target for a FA signing as sheik by the king Felix deal, the rays aren’t going to have a enough money to resign him to that deal. However that’s probably a pipe dream at best for AA

        • Honestly, the one thing I would least use to prognosticate Johnson is spring training. remember jason lane? remember gabe gross? these were spring training heroes .

      • Stoet the problem there is you are thinking like a rational person who is not in charge of millions. If you’re Johnson, and you were once at your prime as an athlete, you would probably let your ego get in the way and think that you could stay healthy and receive a hefty payday.

        That’s my 2 freudian cents.

  5. Ban owners who put clothes on their dogs.

  6. Can someone clarify, which of Hamilton or Davis has the right baserunning skills according to Law? Isn’t clear from the question.

  7. 25 mill/year for Felix…hardcore

  8. hes worth every penny tom w. barring any catostrophic injuries your pretty sure what your gunna get out of the guy…id rather invest that type of money into felix then a guy like mauer..

    id offer johnson 5/85.

  9. That new Dredd movie kicked ass. suck it Farrell!

  10. Lyon signed with the Mets. Would not have minded seeing him back.

  11. He also took my question later in the chat about Sanchez.

    A lil Randy Johnson comp never hurt anyone.

    • I thought Smoral was our Randy Johnson comp.

      6’8″. Lefty. Nasty Slider. Some scouts said a healthy Smoral could have been a top 5 pick.

      If he’s healthy this year he could climb prospect lists real quick.

    • KLaw didn’t throw a Randy Johnson comp on Aaron Sanchez. He gave the name of Randy Johnson as an example of a pitcher who had control and command issues in the minors and into the early part of his MLB career who managed to put it togethe in his age 28 season or so.

      The knock on Sanchez is that he has command and control issues.

  12. Of course Romero being back to somewhat of his 2011 form than that is a huge plus

  13. the key to re signing JJ is an opt out.

    while I agree with stoets that he would prob love an extension, he isn’t going to take something ridiculous that he’ll end up regretting…

    I’d do a 5 year, 75 million dollar deal, some what back loaded, with a player opt out after the 2 year. So if he pitches like an ace the next 3 years, he’ll be 32, and we may have had him as a bargain but he’ll be able to search for a much larger contract and get it.

    if he doesn’t or he’s injured, he’ll have 75 mil to fall back on.

    win win from both sides i think.

    anyways, i still cant believe this guy could be our 4th starter this year.

    • I cant wait to see him. The only problem I have with that suggestion is, the Yankees, Red Sox and Dodgers love those contracts. Mind you, it did work out well in the AJ Burnett instance.

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