Jays Graph April 6th v Boston copy

Reyes – SS 0.65 0.086
Davis – RF 0.73 -0.04
Cabrera – LF 0.91 -0.07
Encarnacion – 1B 0.83 -0.09
Lind – DH 0.59 0.036 Pitcher pLI WPA
Arencibia – C 0.73 0.17 Happ – SP 1.01 0.276
DeRosa – 3B 0.41 -0.015 Delabar – RP 0.57 0.09
Rasmus – CF 0.61 0.072 Loup – RP 0.17 0.013
Bonifacio – 2B 0.46 -0.035 Santos – RP  0.08 0.007
Total 0.66 0.114 Total 0.77 0.386

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOAT: J.A. Happ, 27.6%
Griffin: Edwin Encarnacion, -9.0%
Impact At-Bat: J.P. Arencibia 2-run homer Bot 4, 20.5%
Impact Pitch: Jacoby Ellsbury 3-1 FC, Pedrio Ciriaco out at home, Top 3, 8.0%
Highest Leverage AB: Melky Cabrera Strikeout, Bot 3, 1.84
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Dustin Pedroia F5, Top 3, 1.85
Lineup Contribution: 11.4%
Pitching Contribution: 38.6%
Average Leverage Index: 0.71
Chart explanation

- J.A. Happ’s line: 5.1ip, 1h, 3bb, 6k, 0er, 2.26FIP

- The rest of the bullpen combined: 3.2ip, 1h, 5k, 0bb, 0er

- Aaron Cibia continued his hot start: 2-for-4 with a HR.

- Adam Lind got his first hit of the season and also drew a walk and stole a base.

- Jose Reyes continued his string of getting on base a ton, going 2-for-3 with a walk and a stolen base. He’s gotten on base as a lead-off hitter in every game he’s played for the Jays so far.

- Colby Rasmus’ home run was crushed. When he makes clean contact the power just seems to come too easily. He added a nice running catch at the wall to end the game.

- It appeared that Jose Bautista might make a pinch-hit appearance but Rasmus decided to just go deep instead.

- The Jays wrap up the series tomorrow afternoon. Dickey (5.66FIP, -0.1fWAR) v Lester (1.23FIP, 0.3fWAR)

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

Comments (79)

  1. what’s this thing Zaun said?

    • He has a theory that the removal of the windows at Windows Restaurant changed how the ball is flying out of the stadium. He pointed to the number of balls being crushed to CF on this homestand. I need a much larger sample size to take it seriously, but maybe it’s something to keep an eye on over the entire season.

      • that sounds ridiculous nutI guess the wind can now blow from behind the plate to centre field? I guess thats the theory. maybe the jays knew all along and this was an elaborate plan.

      • Wow, I’m pretty sure Zaun is being ridiculous – again.

        I was out on the centrefield “patio” on Friday night – with the Dome CLOSED – and there is no discernible wind or breeze or anything.

      • I think what he means is that the removal of that huge wall of glass has stopped a lot of the swirling air currents that used to happen. Don’t know if he’s right but it’s certainly possible. The dome is a big bowl and you could feel the air coming from the outfield down in the lower 100′s in the past.

      • You need a much larger sample size to diagnose retardation. I think we are good.

      • I think you guys are all reading too much into it. He could just mean that psychologically it has made that area look closer or something like that. I don’t think he is saying that removing some windows is making the ball go 50′ higher.

  2. How well do you see R.A pitching on Sunday?

  3. Delabar and Cecil may be good advertisements for their velocity program; potential Jay-haunter Young Beedah appears to be doing it too.


    BTW Beede is having a very good sophomore season at Vanderbilt thus far – 1.00 ERA in 7 games/45 innings pitched, a K per inning but also 31 walks; weak early competition, but still nice numbers for him. And he is pitching well today too.

    • 31 walks in 45 IP? That’s nice?

      • do you know the quality of NCAA umps?? I sure don’t, so I have no clue whether his walk numbers are bad or not – he is not allowing many hits or runs and the K rate is very good

      • When coupled with 45 strike outs it’s not bad

    • I’ve been meaning to check the data on Cecil’s velocity this year. Glad you mentioned it.

      This link is to his data for 2013 so far, small sample size that is, but it shows a significant jump in his velocity over last September when he pitched exclusively in relief. I mention the relief part so we’re comparing apples to apples or at least as close as possible. Obviously a reliever is going to be able to crank it up a notch or two knowing he’s only going to pitch an inning or so.

      Check out the 5 year velocity graph at the bottom of the page. Quite a jump even over his 2009 season. Still it will be interesting to see if he’s throwing this hard in another month or so. If he is, I certainly hope the Jays really take a closer look at this guy’s program. I’d love to see what it does for a starter who has lost a couple of mph over the years.


      • nice manimal, definitely something to watch; that program could be very intriguing if the results have lasting impact

      • Whether he can continue to sit 93-94 remains to be seen, but Cecil is infinitely more effective when he can actually throw his fastball to set up his other pitches. He’s looked great so far. That is found money as far as the Jays are concerned.

  4. Encarnacion looks like a bag of ass early on. Hopefully he regains his awareness of where the strike-zone is ASAP.

    • yeah he’s looked bad, but come on….there’s nothing larger to be culled from his performance thus far other than he’s in a bit of a funk. he’s the least of our concerns.

    • His strikezone awareness is fine. The problem for the last 2 games has been umps calling strikes 5 inches outside on him

      • i have been spouting that for years – the jays get screwed way more than any other team on balls and strikes (esp. so in crucial spots – like first pitches and 1-1 counts) – but it just sounds like i am a home-r so…who knows.

        but i still say they get screwed (and so does pitch fx – even over a large sample of games (buddy and i went through a ton of games last year in a drunken-smartphone-w/internet-all-day-at-a-bar-assholes day).

    • This is baseball. Five games do not a bag of ass make. Please figure this the fuck out already.

      • Please note the “early on.” Never did I say that 5 games is a sample size worthy of declaring that he’s gonna be shit for the season. I’m sure he’ll be fine. But he has looked like a bag of ass early on.

        You’re funny when you’re agitated, Stoeten.

    • E5 is still having great at-bats and hit some loud outs. I’m not worried about him whatsoever, he’s much less slump prone than Bautista, for example.

  5. from ESPN:

    The Red Sox were shut out for the first time since Sept. 16, 2012, when they also lost 5-0 to Toronto.

  6. Fuck the Boston media

    • getting jiggy with it…


    • It’s pretty cool that fans are allowed to sit up in the press box now. But seriously, Pete Abe & that bunch are insufferable cheerleaders & fuckfaces.
      “Rah Rah Rah! Go Sox!” Unbelievable.

      It’s not at all hard to see why people shit all over that particular media ensemble. Pretty rich for them to: ‘Tut Tut’ anyone else’s fanbase, with all the fairweather ‘pink hats’ running rampant in their smelly, urine soaked, joke of a park.

      fuck that entitled team, front office & media forever.

  7. Any news on Lackey’s injury? If Lackey is in form an able to put together a good season then Boston’s rotation looks pretty good.

  8. What happened to poor edwin? Did he switch bodies with charles barkley?

  9. Not enough good things can be said about Cecil last night and Happ today.

  10. Atta boy Happ, he got himself out of one or two jams and looked pretty composed the rest of the way. He is a very serviceable dependable guy to have in this rotation. I just wish Delobar or Santos would have been in the top of the 9th yesterday, and Jeffress could have been given a 5 run cushion here.

  11. don’t know if this means much and it is not on the level of Cano’s agent switch but Colby has new representation:


  12. happ, ace!

  13. aaron cibia makes me laugh…

    • Do you mean, like giggles? Most of the fans on this blog ooze alcohol. I mean, Colby and Aaron have exceeded expectations. Give them a break. …. Now what was I drinking.

    • I think he means the “Aaron Cibia” name-joke thing, although I’ve been wrong before….

  14. Love this quote in the Star from Cletus:

    “I love the fans,” Rasmus smiled. “I love it when they get into the game, get rowdy. That’s what it’s all about. That means they’re having a good time. It gives us energy and it’s always good.”

    Just a good ol’ boy, never meaning no harm…

    • He’s gone 100% country this year – have your heard his walk-up music?

      • His walk up music makes me smile every time he steps up to the plate, even though it is a harbinger of a strike out more often than not. You gotta love a good ol’ boy that knows who he is.

      • talkin’ ’bout girls, talkin’ ’bout trucks……
        love it.
        I’m waiting to see if he tries a Lo Viste

  15. Jordan Walden had a bicep strain last year, missed month and half for Angels

  16. Is Rasmus becoming the CF version of Mark Reynolds?

    .220 BA, .300 OBP, 180Ks and 30 bombs?

    If so, is that good enough from your CF?

    I know it’s early, but these numbers aren’t too far off last years totals either.

    • If he returns to plus defense then it is acceptable.

      Do you trade Gose & keep Colby if you can sign him to a long term contract.

      Coby’s HR power is amazing. I expect someone at Sightlines restaurant to get a HR ball from Colby.

      I expect at least 25HR from Colby this year.

    • Yeah, it’s early. Remember last year minus June.

  17. Really starting to like Loup, his stuff is pretty nasty.

    • +1…

      I think guys like loup (on pot. championship teams) make a much bigger diff. than many give credit for.
      I remember Santiago Casilla coming to SF from Oak in 2010. He was a minus WAR player with awful stats in Oak and then he was lights out for SF and his was was somewhere near 2 in only 50 or so innings —SF won their div. by two games and got home field by one game if i remember right (sure, i know that isn’t strictly attributable to Casilla ..but….point made i hope).

  18. Highlight: Lind stole a base!
    Lowlight: some jerk off threw a slice of pizza from like row 25 in the 500 level and narrowly missed hitting someone in the head in the first row.

    • I think you have the highlight and lowlights reversed

    • Out of nowhere a slice of pizza landed in my lap. I was just geting ready to head up for a snack. It must have been one of those free promos. First one I ever got. Pepperoni and cheeze. Gotta love those giveaways!

  19. I couldn’t even look at a beer this afternoon during the game. My check-liver light came on.

    Things I noticed watching the Jays sober.

    -Colbys flow seems to flutter even when he’s not moving.
    -There’s a vapor trail that follows Reyes around
    -Happ looks like an alien hiding in a human body, like in Men in Black

  20. Can Aaron Cibias hot start be for real? If it is then there’s blood in the water in the east.

    • unlikely. did you see him first two games? he is a mistake hitter and he got some mistakes thrown his way the last couple games.

    • I’d put more stock in the last 2 seasons stats than the 5 games he’s played this year.

      But a bit of improvement can be expected I would think. Catchers develop a bit slower offensively than most and by all accounts JPA has a great work ethic.

      I’d be happy with .240, .300 and 25 bombs.

  21. Shit Shit Shit Shit Shit.

    This can’t be happening.

    • If Happ has a couple more good starts in the next few games, apart from an injury how does Rickey get back in the starting rotation?

      • After 5 games, despite the 2-3 record every starter has a QS except Happ (didn’t go 6) and Buehrle (won his start). Ricky Ro is SOL for the near future.

      • If Cecil is throwing in the 90s again, Ricky may not even be the #6 option pretty soon.

      • That’s a great problem to have. If RR gets his mojo back and still isn’t good enough to crack the rotation OR the bullpen then the Jays are sitting pretty. Barring injury to the starting 5, if he’s dealing and still not better than what the Jays have, and we don’t see Rickey until September call ups, the season must have been awesome. There’s always next year for him in the bigs, and/or we’ve got some added insurance if Johnson moves on after this year.

        And if RR is lights out and can’t break into the Jays rotation, how good are the Bisons this season?

        It’s a good problem for everyone but Rickey.

  22. just a quick shout out:

    I love the pLI WPA chart for each game (and of course the write-ups and comments)…thank you!

  23. Bats out again today but back tues I guess?

    • Available to pinch hit as well

    • This team is such a fuckin cocktease when it comes to injuries. ” yeah he might miss a game but maybe not”. Then, ” we wanted to give him another day”. Then “yeah, hes still not ready”. Some fuckin honesty wouldnt hurt in regards to the severity of his injury. If he could miss the whole series then say it. Same shit happened with lawrie and many times before that.

      • Are you being serious? So you twist your ankle at a pickup basketball game on Tuesday. Can you really say, “My ankle will absolutely feel better on Thursday. Not Wednesday. Not Friday. Nope, Thursday. That’s the day. ”
        Can you stop living in a world of fantasy?
        You sound ridiculous. They aren’t being liars, they just don’t know how long his body will take to heal.

        • Yeah, except they never said we dont know how long it will take. The expectation was he would be ready the next day. They said lawrie would definitely be back on opening day when his injury happened. Hes already been out for more than a month. If theyre not sure how long he will be out, then fucking say it instead of giving fans false hope.

          • Bautista was considered day to day. Maybe they should be less specific for you like in hockey and just say its a lower body injury. Would that be better?

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