April 10th vs Detroit

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.93 -0.092
Cabrera – LF 0.91 0.053
Bautista – RF 0.96 0.025
Encarnacion – DH 1.40 0.157 Pitcher pLI WPA
Lind – 1B 0.96 -0.053 Buehrle – SP 0.90 -0.208
DeRosa – PH / 1B 2.18 0.245 Delabar – RP 0.76 -0.082
Arencibia – C 1.69 0.288 Loup – RP 0.69 0.029
Rasmus – CF 0.87 -0.091 Cecil – RP 1.51 0.082
Izturis – 3B 1.24 0.011 Oliver – RP 1.17 0.089
Bonifacio – 2B 1.47 -0.049 Janssen – RP 1.20 0.092
Total 1.22 0.496 Total 0.96 0.004

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOAT: J.P. Arencibia, 28.8%
Griffin: Mark Buehrle, -20.8%
Impact At-Bat: Arencibia 3-run Double, Top 7, 34.0%
Impact Pitch: Alex Avila Double Play, Bot 2, 8.8%
Highest Leverage AB: Arencibia Double, Top 7, 4.82
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Avila Flyout, Bot 7, 2.07
Lineup Contribution: 49.6%
Pitching Contribution: 0.4%
Average Leverage Index: 1.09
Chart explanation

- Mark Buehrle’s line: 4.1ip, 7h, 5er, 2bb, 2k, 3.58FIP.

- Buehrle was shaky, but xFIP (5.00) and FIP (above) are a lot nicer to him in this one than his ERA, which clocked in a hearty 10.38.

- The bullpen pitched 4 2/3rds of shutout baseball, giving up just 4 hits and 2 walks, with both walks coming from Steve Delabar.

- Aside from Mark DeRosa’s RBI walk, all of the Jays runs came via doubles. Rallies!

- J.P. Arencibia’s hot start continues. His base clearing double was the piece of timely hitting that was sorely missing in previous games.

- DeRosa came off the bench to spell Lind and finished with 3-RBI in 3 plate appearances.

- Bonifacio had another not-so-great day. He looked to be a little pensive attacking grounders and his arm is whatever the opposite of a cannon is. He’s taking a ton of flak in some places, so I think it’s semi-important to give the reminder that he’s a part-time role player on the team when everyone is healthy so he’ll ideally not be getting this many regular at-bats and 2B is not his prime position.

- Jose Reyes had a single and stole another base. Melky Cabrera followed with another pair of hits and a walk. I’m not sure Melky has had a bad at-bat yet this season.

- Signs of life from Edwin Encarnacion, he went 2-for-4 with 2 doubles and a walk. The 2-3-4 hitters all scored two runs each.

- It feels damn good to come back and win a game.

- This afternoon’s projected match-up is Johnson (4.79FIP, 0.1fWAR) v Doug Fister (7.32FIP, -0.1fWAR), so get all your puns ready.

{Gif via Matt Gwin}

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

Comments (121)

  1. God that felt good!

    • +10. Most enjoyable game of the year.

      The bullpen after Delabar was excellent.Gibby did a good job there.

      Very good at bats by derosa. He might be a mascot but the double & timely walk helped.

      JPA came up with a clutch hit as he has done in the past. Perhaps most important hit of this young season.

      The odds of the Jays coming back from a 6-1 deficit late in the game at Tiger stadium are very small.

      Today is a day why we watch baseball. The game was a rollercoaster, but the jays finally won.

      I had to listen to Jack Morris on the way home on the GO train. He is so full of cliches , I thought it was a parody.

      Wilner is getting better & has some emotion.

      Zaun’s theories about Windows & HR’s are in the Globe & Mail .

  2. if we cant get johnson going then maybe we can get to fister

  3. Part-time role player or not, it’s time for the team to stop giving Bonifacio starts at 2B. Play DeRosa at 3B every day until Lawrie returns if you have to or even call up McCoy for the occasional start. His D is that bad out there.

    • Derosa at third is just as bad if not worse!

      • Couldn’t be worse than Bonifacio so far. Would also move Izturis to his better position, so at least you’d only have one awful defensive spot instead of two.

    • It’s hard to go from watching an infield chock full of above average to elite defensive infielders who are constantly shifting and positioning themselves optimally. to watching a bunch of mediocre defensive infielders with a manager who refuses to shift. I don’t have much to complain about Gibby, but his refusal to shift and position his defenders optimally is just going to amplify their weaknesses.

    • mccoy has 2 errors in 24 career innings at 3B. Very small sample size.

      Could the Jays trade a someone to get Johnny Mac back.?

      Johnny Mac can probably play better defense than Izturis or Bonifacio.

      • Ahhhhhh. The call for a trade for Johnny Mac. Finally, some level headed advice for a sinking ship. Bravo asshole.

  4. This might be the difference between 3-5 “THE JAYS ARE BACK #LoveThisTeam!!!!!” and 2-6 “OMG THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!”


    Baseball’s a hell of a game, people. It’s gonna be a fun ride this year.

  5. This is one of those times John McDonald could have come in handy. You could throw him out there at any infield spot and not worry about the D.


  7. better yet with bonifaco, why are the jays moving him to 3rd and izturus back to 2nd. Bonifacio has spent more time at 3rd (128) than 2B (82).

    • Good question.

      Of course, would the Jays dare put Edwin back at 3B & Lind at 1B…..

      On second thought, edwin could go back to being E5.

      easiest answer is bring back Lawrie ASAP.

      or bring up Mike Mccoy.

      • because Bonifaco is a .955 fielding defender at 3rd to Edwin Encarnacion’s .934 at 3rd. as well as ewdin at third effects his bat. Mike Mccoy is only a .933 defender at 3rd in 156 games. his 26 games in the majors, shows that he has spent less time at 3rd than Bonifaco. So… Fuck No. Not to mention his career .190 average screams impact bat….

        • Right, so why not try Bonifacio at 3B, Izturis at 2B??

          Totally agree about edwin and his bat being afected when he makes errors in the field.

          Today was a good day for many reasons& I am happy that eddie started to hit.

          • I am just suprised they continue to keep throwing Bonifacio at second. he cannot play second. Heck davis played 1 inning in 2008, can we try him????

            • They need to ask Jose to play 3B. You put Izturis back at 2nd where his arm plays. You then play mix and match in the OF depending on matchups and L/R. If Davis’ arm plays in right, would Bonifacio’s? Can Melky play right? Can Rasmus?

          • But isn’t Boni’s biggest problem his lack of an arm? Wouldn’t moving him to third only exacerbate that weakness? I say move Itzuris to second, and go with DeRosa at third / EE for a game or two if needed. I know there are downsides to that, but having Boni at second and Itzuris at third is the most sub-optimal.

  8. Of all the signings over the off-season (fuck, was that only one off-season? There was enough action for a slew of them) the one I was dubious about was the Cabrera acquistion. After seeing him for a couple of weeks, getting the Melkman is now looking like a very good move.

  9. How and where do I get a Brett Cecil jersey? I’m all over that bandwagon.

    • Jersey’s are so mainstream. Go with the Cecil speed goggles.

      • Cecil didn’t have his best stuff today, but he got the job done. I like Brett .

        Tigers are a great team, but their weakness is the bullpen.

        Bonifacio at 2B reminds me of the worst days of E5 & Edwin at 1B

      • great marketing idea, first 40,000 fans get a free pair of Cecil Spectacles

        • Totally off topic, but I always thought a great promotion would have been fake $10 bills with John MacDonald on them. I’ll email the Pirates.

          • fake bills? give me the real thing.
            If you do fake ones you need to get permission from the Mint and all that legal bullshit. No permission needed to just start handing out $10 bills haha.

          • There was an off-season video in which Brett Lawrie quized his teammates about Canada. He asked them all who was on the money. Adam Lind’s response: “Johnny Mac?”

        • How about Bonifacio cement mittens day?

      • aaaaaaah ahahha

  10. I am a bit late to the party on this.
    I criticize enough, im not the type to say oh well its only one game after a total bullpen collapse for example, I am competitive and think every game is important, but really what the hell is this?

    • Brutal…

      • Shit like that is really making Toronto fans look like tools.
        I know its been a generation since a winning team and this year has a lot of new fans following the team but come on.
        People saying stupid stuff on Twitter is expected. A major news outlet picking up that story is surprising.

    • It’s lazy journalism. If you use the search function of Twitter you can find someone at some point saying literally almost anything you possibly want. If you actually search the #FireGibbons hashtag on Twitter, there’s like 3 or 4 tweets in total from today that actually use the hashtag with any semblance of seriousness. If there were 3 or 4 people standing outside of Rogers Centre chanting “Fire Gibbons” it wouldn’t be a story. This is amateur hour journalism with little to no basis that serves no purpose but to perpetuate the whole Chicken Little “The sky is falling!!!!” narrative.

    • Congrats to CANOE for releasing that steaming pile of shit on the interwebs. They must have been badly constipated to come up with that one.

      Also congrats to them for finding 17 tweets by individuals who have the same number of brain cells shared between a worm and a goldfish.

  11. Coming from behind on the road, against a good team and in cold, miserable conditions can give a team big lift. Maybe now they’ll be able to grip those bats just a bit more loosely, relax and just play. That win in those conditions may be the first step in developing team confidence and a bit of swagger.

    • +1. it was eerily familiar to the home opener last year in cleveland. The team was down 4-1 with masterson on the mound. The indians went to there bullpen. Jays tie it up at 4-4 in the 9th.

      jays win 7-4 on a 3 run HR in the 16th? inning .

  12. Can’t wait for Lawrie to come back and hold down 3B, so Izturis can start at 2B and Boni can do what he is perfect for – a player who can pinch run like the wind and play all over the place after he subs in.

    Anything we get from his bat will be gravy like Rob Ford.

  13. DeRosa double = Shot thru the heart

  14. Re:Bonafacio as a role player
    I heard Blair on 590 this morning say he is now hearing the team likes Bonafacio as the everyday 2B, and Izturis as the part-time player. Wilner was on with him and agreed that makes sense. Said the team values the extra offense from Bonafacio over Izturis’ superior d.

    • Over the course of a year there is probably very little separating the two. Why not put the higher upside player in there?

    • Not sure why people are referring to Bonifacio’s bat like it is some kind of plus. He has a career .671 OPS. Tolerating his poor defense might be more understandable if he could hit like Ian Kinsler (although, even then, you have to make these routine plays if you’re going to play that position).

      • His defense has been horrible, but we’ve also a sour taste in our mouths. Of course defensive metrics are kinda a crapshoot so we rely on the eyeball test, but I’ve not watched too many NL games to verify that he is the absolute worst defender in the history of the league. He’s slightly worse than average but so is Reyes. As the bat goes so goes the player.

        • Didn’t realize that Reyes was a below average defender: a below avg defender with a cannon. Is that all the more reason to have Izturis premium d at 2nd?

      • (I am in the camp that thinks defense matters more and Izturis should start at second when Lawrie is back)

  15. Random notes to consider from this game:

    • Boner Face is a little bad at 2B, and by a little I mean he’s fucking awful. The Romans had better defense whenever they got sacked.

    • Delabar doesn’t like cold temperatures.

    • #GibbyTheBest

    • Boner Face again with putrid-looking strikeouts. It’s early, and therefore he should keep getting PA’s while he can, but so far he’s a wet paper bag while in the batters box.

    • I hate it when the Jays’ pitchers walk batters.

    • #JPTheBest

    • It would be some kind of awesome if Buehrle could manage pitching passed the 5th inning. It would also be some kind of awesome he wouldn’t throw ~30 pitches in the 1st inning. Again, it’s early. Doesn’t mean it can’t be tiresome already when the other 4 are doing the same thing.

    • #GibbyTheBest .. again.

  16. Gotta say what ever JP is doing I hope he doesn’t stop,

  17. Wow, I don’t think I can remember seeing a graph where the Jays were so close to defeat and managed to pull it out. Great comeback.

  18. Not to change topics but the Orioles have scored 5 runs in the top of the 9th against the fuck faces from Boston. Pretty awesome seeing Farrell’s face :-)

  19. Anybody watching this red sox game??

  20. Fister?

    I hardly know er!

  21. Dont wanna bring up the pitch framing debate but that was strike 3 to end the game instead called ball 4 to load the bases and then boom their down 3 runs.


    • I feel like great pitch framing performances in the 9th inning are highly correlated to cold, miserable rainy days when umps are trting to get the last outs finished.

  22. I don’t see how Johnson and Fister could be the basis for puns.

  23. That baseball-in-the-groin really needs some Hans Moleman-type sound effects.

  24. Game ball to Jim Leyland for leaving Dotel in there agsinst Reyes and Cabrera from the left side of the plate. He lucked out of that one.

  25. Watching the Red Sox lose that heart breaker felt as good as watching the jays win in their comeback

    • Better still is knowing that Abraham, Bradford and McAdam are furiously re-writing their stories after gobbling their team’s balls all night.

  26. Just got back from my applied matrix algebra exam. Crushed it, obviously (Time management be damned)

    Now I got two weeks of no classes til my next exam and I plan to learn EVERYTHING there is to know about the Blue Jays and spiced whiskey.

    Today’s win was an awesome one, let’s get more of those. Have Beurhle pitch everyday, he makes our offence show up with his veteran presence. Gotta love it.

    Him and Mark Derosa should play every. single. day.

  27. Everyone needs to stop hating on our own guys, straight up… The lack of loyalty is disgusting… Stop with the attacks, stop with the “they need to change this, they need to change that” bullshit… Everything is going to be ok, and even if we don’t end up in the playoffs, or winning the world series, we still have the most exciting roster and intriguing management we’ve had in this city in 20 years… having a shit ton of talent and an abundance of hope and hype (which may not necessarily pan out) is a lot more fun than having a franchise that’s completely lost, declining, and eventually will have no choice but to move out of town… Let’s enjoy this year and stop turning on each other for chrissakes… And will somebody on this team PLEASE bring back Robbie Alomar’s Cooper neon and blue BG’s??? I’m looking at you Reyes…

  28. Fuck you, here comes Aaron Cibia.

  29. Also, what the fuck are we going to do with Bonifacio? Allowing Fielder to beat out that ground ball was goddam outrageous.

  30. Can we start putting they jays on the top of that graph, it makes what little is left of my mind twitch when the “positive” outcome is at the bottom.

  31. When, and yes it will happen, people sober up and resume their bitching and complaining, they will yammer on about Buehrle and Delabar sucking today. Don’t forget the conditions. Almost every pitcher was having it rough. A numb dry hand is not good for pitching.

  32. Bonifacio is a much better outfielder than infielder.

  33. Highlight of the night :

    Was actually post game when Gibby was being interviewed. A very large and dried patch of chaw spittle glistening off his chin. Like he didn’t give a fuck. And he didn’t.

    Majestically redneck.

    • It was freeze dried Hillenbrand.
      He’s been chewing on what’s left of his carcass for years.

  34. Big win, big hit by JP

  35. Most of the people saying “I TOLD you not to panic!” are still wearing nooses around their necks and holding the charred remains of their brand new Dickey jerseys in their hands.

  36. If this were the NL we would first have our Johnson in the box and then Fister in the box.

  37. CANOE…SUN MEDIA? If so, it explains it all for me. This “NEWS” outlet is about as far away from journalism as one can get and they’re known as rightwing, Harper loving liars too, in my opinion.

  38. I’m suprised with Bonifacio. I watched a good amount of his games at 2nd base two years ago with Florida. Not gold glove, but middle of the road.

    He is acting like he is not seeing the ball of the bat at 2nd base. I wonder if he is having problem with his eyes.

    But I definitely would shift him to 3rd base while Lawrie is out and see if that helps

  39. My gf is unsatisfied with the size of my Johnson, so I had my buddy Doug Fister.

  40. God, that graph has a sexy shape to it.

  41. Aaaaaaand Boner face will not be playing 2nd base today.

    Sometimes I want to punch him in the face, then the next minute I love him as he hits a triple or RBI double. Want to see the dude succeed…love his speed and athleticism…just gotta improve on some d!

    -Non-panicking rational drunk Jays fan

  42. If ballplayers don’t like the rain, I wonder how they feel about ice pellets.

  43. testing 1,2,3… ;)

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