April 9th vs Tigers

Batter pLI WPA
Reyes – SS 0.78 0.029
Cabrera – LF 0.81 0.081
Bautista – DH 1.14 -0.119
Encarnacion – 1B 0.86 -0.093
Arencibia – C 0.64 -0.064 Pitcher pLI WPA
Rasmus – CF 0.4 -0.006 Morrow – SP 0.88 -0.284
Davis – RF 0.79 -0.064 Cecil – RP 0.24 0.025
Lind – PH 0.17 0.011 Rogers – RP 0.35 0.03
Izturis – 3B 0.67 -0.069 Oliver – RP 0.12 -0.017
Bonifacio – 2B 0.39 0.045 Gonzalez – RP 0.05 -0.004
Total 0.71 -0.25 Total 0.55 -0.25

 Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

Shamsky: Melky Cabrera, 8.1%
Griffin: Brandon Morrow, -28.4%
Impact At-Bat: Emilio Bonifacio Triple, Top 3, 6.9%
Impact Pitch: Miguel Cabrera 3-run Home Run, Bot 4, -22.2%
Highest Leverage AB: Jose Bautista Flyout, Top 3, 1.52
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Jhonny Peralta 4-3 Groundout, Bot 3, 2.57
Lineup Contribution: -25.0%
Pitching Contribution: -25.0%
Average Leverage Index: 0.62
Chart explanation

- Brandon Morrow’s line: 3.2ip, 9h, 5er, 2bb, 0k, 2hr, 11.76FIP

- Jose Bautista returned to the lineup. He went 0-for-4, facing 8 pitches total.

- Brett Cecil and Jose Reyes continue to be bright spots for optimists looking at reasons to feel good. Jose was 2-for-4 with a run, a steal and a RBI; Cecil gave up just one walk and no hits over 1.1.

- As seen in the gif above, Don Kelly made a catch he had no business making to rob J.P. Arencibia of another home run.

- Colby Rasmus continued to perpetuate and accentuate claims of his Three True Outcominess, striking out twice to go along with a walk and another home run in 4 plate apperances.

- Other than the Rasmus homer a 9th inning Lind pinch-hit double was the Jays only extra base hit.

- Reyes and Cabrera combined for 5 hits, but the Jays 3-4-5 hitters went 0-for-12 with 4 k’s.

- This afternoon’s projected matchup is Buehrle (8.09FIP, -0.2fWAR) v Rick Porcello (8.28FIP, -0.1fWAR)

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

Comments (33)

  1. I love these, always helps put the game into perspective and explains exactly what happened.

    Anyways, I hope today that the meat of the lineup can focus on getting some contact on the ball and putting it in play rather than just swinging for the fences. Lets get those averages up and score some runs with some speed! I think Buehrle has a big bounceback game today…IF they play…damn rain…

    Go Jays!

    -Optimistic Jays fan

  2. Rain Rain go away?

    Could they push the game to tonight instead?

  3. Jays could use a few rainouts in a row, they look so awful right now, maybe they need to get away from it for a while, who knows?

  4. Is it raining in Detroit? I know its raining here in GUELPH!

  5. I’m getting sick of having to tell my 6 year old son every morning that the Jays lost again. He keeps saying “again??” He is going to be scarred for life.

    • It’ll make him a man — and prepare him up for life as a Toronto sports fan!

      BTW: shouldn’t that be all Toronto sports fans’ official slogan — a disheartened child’s whining “Again?!”

      Out of the mouths of babes….

  6. Just watching that GIF makes me realize how much give that fence actually has at Comerica. I’m thinking if they were playing at a park where the fence didn’t have that same give, he may have been hurt there, or not been so aggresive in the first place…

    • I agree. However, when someone makes that kind of defensive play on you, all you can do (and should do) is tip your hat.

  7. Love all the gloomers and doomers that come out the first week of the season

  8. From John Lotts Twitter:

    AA says Lawrie might be ready for the NY series April 19-21 or the following series in Baltimore. Taking batting practice now, “feel great.”

  9. We found a role for Adam Lind – pinch hitter

  10. Lind as pinch hitter in already decided games is fine by me

  11. I need a reason to be happy today. I hope the Jays win.

  12. Is it too soon to say that it seems like we`re going to live and die by the homerun again this year?

  13. I watched the Giants-Rockies game yesterday, and something struck me. Lincecum was terrible in the 2nd inning, but otherwise fine. He was not booed. Even when down 6-2, the fans were in it the whole time and you could feel that they collectively thought they could come back.


    Because the Giants have won two of the last three World Series and are one of the most successful franchises over the past dozen years.

    This, I think, is key to all the booing and anger at Jays games–they’ve been bad for 20+ years so no one believes they will come back, no one believes they will be better the next time out. I know I feel beaten down by all the losing, and my father is even worse, he finds it hard to watch them live at all.

    Do fans effect the team’s performance? Maybe a little, but it’s certainly not a large factor. However, when writers on this blog and others get angry at fans for “panicking” or “booing their own players” maybe they forget that we’ve been going to games for 20 years with ZERO results whatsoever. (and I go to 25+ games every year, my father around 20).

    I am very worried about this team, 2-5 is a bad way to start, but it’s not like I’ve given up hope. On the other hand, I think the “small sample size” is a paper tiger, It seems like a strong argument, but really it falls apart when you realize that every game matters for a team trying to scrape into the playoffs, whether it’s in the first two weeks or the last two.

    • The difference is the expectations.
      Lincecum has been struggling and not as dominate as he once was.
      The current jays staff isn’t expected to struggle and if they do, the offence is potent enough to overcome a bad pitching performance.
      It’s not that the Jays are losing, it’s the way they’re losing.

    • ZERO results would be 20 years of 162 losses, wouldn’t it?

    • But the argument stacks up nicely when you look at the numerous examples pretty much every year of teams who start as bad or worse and yet still make the playoffs.

      You are not understabding what ppl are saying when hey use the SSS argument. They are not saying games dont mean anything in April. They mean just as much as a game in September. What they are saying is that the record of a team 7 games in has almost no correlation to what their record will be over he course of he year.

      As far as Lincicum, he doesnt get booed because hes been there a long time, is a homegrown product, and played an integral part im at least one WS win. That buys a whooooooole lot of goodwill. Dickey has no such goodwill here. Not saying booing him was right. It was stupid. But thats your reason.

    • “Small sample size” is a perfectly valid argument. If the Jays had gone 5-2 instead of 2-5 to start the season, would you be THAT much more confident of making the playoffs — despite there being 155 more games to be played? Don’t kid yourself.

      Would you also expect Encarnacion, our goddamn cleanup hitter, to end the season with a .379 OPS, or Morrow to finish with an ERA around 6?

      Also, Jose fucking Reyes.

    • The small sample size argument isn’t meant to calm you about past results. No one is happy about being 2-5, and everyone recognizes that wins now are as important as wins in september.

      The small sample size claim is meant to point out that you cannot extrapolate future performance from a small sample which is likely not representative of the true talent level of the involved players. There is bound to be some regression (positive and negative) toward their career means over the course of a (very) long season, during which outliers in performance will occur for short periods, but will generally be levelled out by overall steady production along the lines of a players true talent.

      All of which is to say relax dude, it’s only April 10th.

  14. What the hell is this sportsnet1 shit, are there really more fans that want to watch soccer central then want to watch the bluejays?

  15. Jose punished the ball when he hit it though, the Tigers just had Torii in the right place pinching towards the RF gap and Comerica is just way too f’ing big in centre. A slightly different defensive positioning and a park that isn’t 420′ in centre and Jose would have had two doubles and a homerun.

  16. I already loss 1000 on the jays.. pathetic on my part for believing in them.

  17. “Other than the Rasmus homer a 9th inning Lind pinch-hit double was the Jays only extra base hit.”

    Bonis Triple?

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