April 18th v White Sox

Batter pLI WPA
Davis – RF 0.79 0.104
Cabrera – LF 0.58 -0.057
Arencibia – DH 0.68 -0.075
Encarnacion – 1B 0.77 0.066
Lawrie – 3B 0.60 -0.049 Pitcher pLI WPA
Izturis – 2B 0.47 0.014 Dickey – SP 0.91 0.344
Bonifacio – CF 0.90 0.134 Rogers – RP  0.67 0.046
Blanco – C 0.85 -0.134 Loup – SP 0.54 0.014
Kawasaki – SS 0.95 0.014 Janssen – RP 1.00 0.078
Total 0.74 0.018 Total 0.90 0.482

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOAT: R.A. Dickey, 34.4%
Griffin: Henry Blanco, -13.4%
Impact At-Bat: Edwin Encarnacion RBI Single, Bot 1, 8.6%
Impact Pitch: Alexi Ramirez GIDP, Top 5, 10.7%
Highest Leverage AB: Blanco GIDP, Bot 2, 1.55
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Adam Dunn Strikeout, Top 4, 2.09
Lineup Contribution: 1.8%
Pitching Contribution: 48.2%
Average Leverage Index: 0.82
Chart explanation

- R.A. Dickey’s line: 6.0ip, 2h, 0er, 1bb, 7k, 1.25FIP. Feel free to outwardly shame anyone that gave up on him after two starts. Seriously, he was fucking nails last night.

- It’s not all wine and roses, because as Stoeten mentioned, Dickey left the game in the 6th inning after just 64 pitches due to some back and neck tightness. As someone who recently had the slightest bit of back discomfort I can add in that having a hurt back is absolutely awful and impossible to really understand until it happens to you. If Dickey is doing anything other than lying on a wooden floor and binge eating Robaxacet he’s a bigger man than me.

- The bullpen was very capable in Dickey’s absence, giving up 2 hits and a run over 3 innings. Casey Janssen needed just 8 pitches to shut the door on the Sox in the 9th.

- Rajai Davis went 2-for-4 with a double, 2 steals, 1 RBI, and a run scored at the top of the order. Nice to see him have a good game after all the wasted air regarding his pinch-hitting in Wednesday’s game.

- Speaking of that pinch hit: Colby Rasmus came into the game late as a defensive replacement for Emilio Bonifacio, who drew a walk and was hit by a pitch in his 3 plate appearances. Rasmus did not record an at-bat

- As a team the Jays only managed 4 hits but also only surrendered 4 hits. This was a very good game if you’re a fan of quality pitching.

- Munenori Kawasaki went 0-for-3, but recorded a RBI on an Adam Dunn error that scored Bonifacio and he came around to score later on Rajai’s double. Those 2 runs would end up being the difference in the game.

- Brett Lawrie is yet to get on base in his 12 plate appearances since returning to the team, which is disappointing but understandable considering he’s a few weeks behind everyone else.

- Edwin Encarnacion stole a base.

- The Jays split the series with the White Sox two games apiece and now open a 3-game weekend set against the Yankees. 20 of the next 23 games are against the AL East.

- This evening’s projected match-up is Brandon Morrow (4.29FIP, 0.1fWAR) v Andy Pettitte (3.82FIP, 0.2fWAR), making it three straight left-handed starters to face the Jays this week. Also: Vernon WeLOLs and LOLyLOLe LMAOverbay will be in town.

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

{gif via the absolutely irreplaceable Ian Hunter}

Comments (69)

  1. i hope the pitching can keep it going until we start hitting,

    Does Colby get the start tonight vs Pettitte, we all expect Lind will be out.

    If Jose is playing, he DHs?

  2. Vernon WelLOLs is fun to say out loud… Well-oh-ells, really rolls off the tongue. However, try as i might, i have no clue how you would say LOLyLOLe LMAOverbay.

  3. It’s too bad that Dickey couldn’t have started the season pitching this well. It’s great that he’s feeling good but I hear it’s too late and we are already out of the play-off race. Too little too late.

  4. Kawasaki is getting better at the lo vista thing.

  5. Davis should have had that hit up against the wall. I would have caught that.

  6. I would very much like for “Dickey the best” to become a standard greeting in the city of Toronto. To that end, I’ve been going around this morning, doffing my ballcap to everyone and saying it. Some weird looks so far, and little reciprocation, but I’ll keep at it. Join me, won’t you?

  7. did you write ‘binge eating’ because bingeing is wrong and binging looks weird? I know that’s what I would have done.

  8. that half face of Kawasaki made me LOLed. Seriously this kid is too awesome

  9. Season in 10 parts of 16 games each-

    Part one – everything seemed to go wrong and we ended 7-9…
    Part two – I see a 10-6 mark… everyone other than Reyes healthy at that point and we
    continue the journey to the playoffs…

  10. The picture over the chart is outstanding. Kawasaki!!!

  11. sitting 25 rowsish behind homeplate tonite. Just going to laugh every time a yankee comes to the plate.

  12. 私が見た

  13. Is it fair to isolate Henry Blanco in this chart? He’s effectively only catching R.A. Dickey. I’m wondering if they should be lumped together as a single entity at +20%.

    (It’s either I write this, or I do real work.)

  14. Why do people keep referring to Kawasaki as a “kid”?

    He is 31 years old.

    • This, in general, is a HUGE pet peeve of mine. Announcers will refer to anybody under the age of 35 a “kid” sometimes, depending on how old said announcer is.

      • Whoa, get over it.

        Depends where you’re from. e.g. In New England, ‘kid’ is used the same as ‘dude’ or ‘guy’ in some contexts. Does not specifically refer to minors under the age of 18.

        • If you’re from New England…you’re not welcome in this blog!! Fucking Massholes!! (Yes I know they had a terrorist attack, this is strictly baseball talk).

  15. anyone else notice jansen gets about an extra two inches on each side of the plate?

    • That’s because he’s a gritty grinding bulldog who doesn’t fear the hitter but makes the hitter fear him with guile and sticktoitiveness even though he can’t throw a hundred he’s got the heart to make up for it with a true feel good story from rags to riches and painting corners with his need to win and i love casey janssen.

  16. Should of had Blanco sack bunt where he hit into the GIDP.

    • What kind of bag do you use to sack bunt?

      • Could you imagine if you were allowed to bunt with a sack full of baseballs, and when the pitch hit it the balls exploded everywhere, and the infielders would have to rifle through the spilled balls frantically trying to find out which one was the right ball to throw to first? That would be some solid strategy

        • LOL @DaveyP, that made me laugh harder than anything in a long time in this comments section. Nice ‘out of the box’ commenting.

  17. On bad backs: I can’t believe that there are folk out there calling Bautista a wimp or whatever for not playing with back spasms… I had some back spasms a month or so back and all I did was chow down on Robax during the day and sleep-aids at night until it faded (because it’s damn hard to fall asleep when your so uncomfortable). Thinking back on how I felt and imagining my self playing baseball the only way I could describe it would be torture (and utterly ineffective).

    And the Jays should find some way to keep Kawasaki on the team. The guy plays good D, doesn’t strike out, can take a walk, isn’t slow as shit, is an instant fan favorite, and looks right at home in the dugout… I’d rather have him taking a spot on the 25 man then Mark “Veteran Presents” DeRosa.

    • I’ve had them too. It gets so bad that you can’t even move without extreme pain that’s deep in your muscles.

      On an unrelated note, it looked like Dickey was reaching for his trapezius than an *actual back muscle. With some rest and a few massages, he’ll feel better, as long as it’s not around the spinal area. Then the pain can get quite nasty.

      *I say actual loosely, as it’s tied to your neck and shoulder also.

    • but Mark is the key to the playoffs….

      hes also the only why Brett will go from a Great D ave Hitter to a 5 tool player…


    • Bautista is a watermelon.

    • DeRosa’s going to DH again tonight, isn’t he? Fuck.

    • If Kawasaki can go up there and have 7-10 pitch at bats every time, there’s a case to be made he brings value even if he doesn’t hit well. It would be interesting to see if there’s any statistics to quantify that value.

  18. If Lawrie goes 0 for tonight I say we send him to Buffalo, bring up Sierra…


  19. Janssen was lights out last night.

  20. I will steal that closer’s job by the ALL-STAR BREAK

  21. Bautista better play tonight. If not go on the DL and bring someone up. He’ll come back for a game and then miss 3. It’s annoying

  22. “Hello. I do not speak English BECAUSE I AM JAPANESE!”.

    Kawasaki the best, and the best interviewee evar.

  23. I think the only thing the Jays need to do for the next month or so is hang around, not fall back a prohibitive amount of games or something. If they have their core healthy, and especially Reyes, for the second half they can make their push then.

    Key is just to not fall too far back, we can’t all be the 2012 Oakland A’s.

    • No, the key is to win more baseball games than your divisional opponents.

    • In the last Baseball Prospectus book, Derek Carty goes into the math of when a hot/cold start becomes “real” (pp. 358-65). It’s a good read. One of the things he does is look at when a record might become statistically significant (basically, when can you stop saying “it’s a long season). One method uses 48 games; without going into too much detail, I’d say that the results after the next 23 games (with 20 against the AL East) will be highly correlative with the end of the season standings.

      • I should add, though, that there is greater statistical significance to the record after 17 games (ie tonight) than assuming a league-average finish. If the Jays win tonight, Carty’s theorem would predict 78-79 wins within 7 49% of the time. This would both support Stoeten’s point that “it’s a long season” but also not negate some of the percolating anxiety because it’s a statistical projection based on more than “mere conjecture” (Carty 365).

        • And, if anyone is even interested, Carty’s theorem would predict a 73-74 win season (+/- 7 games 49% of the time) if they lose tonight to NYY.

          • Comment more please.
            Your services diluting the idiocy (including my own) are invaluable and appreciated. These are the most informative comments that we may have had since someone libeled all over Adam Lind one day.

  24. Kawasaki? More like Kawasexy am I right? *Ba-dum-tsss*

  25. Kawasaki might be the greatest human on the planet.

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