April 23rd v Orioles

Batter pLI WPA
Kawasaki – SS 0.92 -0.118
DeRosa – PH / 2B 2.16 0.086
Lind – DH 0.51 0.023
Davis – PH 3.45 -0.042
Bautista – RF 1.28 -0.130
Encarnacion – 1B 1.41 0.214
Cabrera – LF 1.56 -0.113
Lawrie – 3B 1.54 -0.164
Rasmus – CF 1.25 -0.067 Pitcher pLI WPA
Izturis – 2B / SS 1.00 -0.028 Dickey – SP 0.84 -0.158
Blanco – C 0.79 0.020 Cecil – RP 0.80 0.060
Arencibia – PH / C 1.82 -0.102 Rogers – RP 0.36 -0.158
Total 1.31 -0.421 Total 1.42 -0.079

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!


Shamsky: Edwin Encarnacion, 21.4%
Griffin: Brett Lawrie, -16.4%
Impact At-Bat: Encarnacion 3-run Home Run, Top 6, 19.9%
Impact Pitch: Manny Machado 2-Run Single, Bot 2, -11.3%
Highest Leverage AB: Melky Cabrera Strikeout, Top 8, 4.36
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Nolan Reimold Sac Fly, Bot 2, 2.11
Lineup Contribution: -42.1%
Pitching Contribution: -7.9%
Average Leverage Index: 1.06
Chart explanation

- R.A. Dickey’s line: 6.0ip, 6h, 4er, 5bb, 4k, 118 pitches, 4.18FIP. He gave up all 4 runs when the Orioles batted-around on him in the 2nd inning, which included four hits, 2 walks, an error and a passed ball.

- Brett Cecil got another 4 outs out of the bullpen. Esmil Rogers picked up the other two.

- Gibby really emptied the bench and made some manager moves in this one. He pinch-hit J.P. Arencibia for Henry Blanco after Dickey left the game in the 7th. Mark DeRosa drew a walk in his pinch-hit spot for Munenori Kawasaki in the 8th, which was immediately followed by Rajai Davis pinch-hitting and sacrifice bunting for Adam Lind. In the 9th Emilio Bonifacio pinch-ran for Maicer Izturis.

- With the lineup combining for 6 hits and 5 walks, the Jays left some runs on the basepaths.

- Colby Rasmus went 1-for-4 with 3 strikeouts, moving him up to 30 strikeouts in 70 plate appearances.

- A 3-run home run by Edwin Encarnacion (3) represented the entirety of the Jays run-scoring plays.

- Adam Lind hit 2nd and got on base twice before being pinch hit for. Melky Cabrera hit 5th and followed Encarnacion’s home run by immediately hitting a triple. He also struck out looking on a debatable call with 2-out and 2-on in the 8th, the Jays last big chance to score.

- Lawrie and Izturis turned a lovely looking double play to end a threat in the 6th, and Izturis nearly turned another gem in the 7th but Nick Markakis was called safe on an atrocious decision.

- The Orioles win another 1-run game, because of course they do.

- This afternoon’s projected match-up is Brandon Morrow (5.06FIP, 0.0fWAR) v Josh Stinson (N/A). The Jays have been unsweepable so far this year, so let’s see if they can get to this 25-year old making his 2nd career start. 

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

{gif via Gamereax}

Comments (100)

  1. Excellent choice for a GIF.

  2. Another undisciplined, inconsistent night at the plate. More porous defence. Lucky to be sitting at 8-12

    Sometimes you need to go with the pitch and slap one the other way. Feast or Famine baseball with the home run does not win games.

    • Too many batters that are trying to pull everything for a HR. Just look at game 1 in the series with the wind blowing in, and they continued to try to pull everything. It’s no wonder why they have such a terrible RISP avg.

    • You are wrong. There has been plenty of research which proves that there is little correlation between, say, individual strike out rates, and overall run production. This is just the type of hitters that the Jays have. Don’t try to build a narrative around it.

  3. entertaining game, what more can you ask for.. besides a win.

    • i didnt find the 4run 2nd inning from our ace that much fun…..and the amount of guys left on base….flack me. singles would have been great, 8 hits might have won it, we ave 3 runs and 6hits or something stupid right now, we aren’t going to win many games doing that.

      if only a couple more guys could get out of this slump, it would sure as fuck help, we dont need to score 10 to win, the pitching over the past week or so has been good enough that 5 runs would make this club 500 right now.

    • I hate to say this, because I love baseball, but the Jays have been boring this year. Really boring. Atrocious hitting, and mediocre pitching. They have played very boring games quite frankly.

  4. As a very hard core Jays fans since 1982 the only thing I can say when will the carnage END!. The Jays are know 8-13, statistically very few Teams make the playoffs with such a bad start, except maybe the Cubs a few years ago. However the last several games have been good games to watch (NOT BLOW OUTS), but the Jays continue to be on the loosing end. Honestly Bono and Eysore have been very bad (no – hits and errors and bad plays which have costed some games, but to be honest allot of other players have contributed to games lost through errors and bad plays. The pitching seems to be coming around and the hitting is on and off, but the Team still needs to GEL and a true leader needs to step up on the BENCH side. I know people say its Bautista is the leader, but with not hitting and complaining at the plate I just do not see it yet.

    Lets hope Brandon can hold Baltimore today and lets get this train ROLLING.

    • JP – you used a Cubs example to give us hope?

      Lucky I’m not near a bridge….Just have to drink enough to believe the Jays are playing well

    • You’re an idiot. There are 141 games to go. In addition: I bet you anything I can find a stretch of time for every team that made the playoffs last year in which they went 8-13.

    • How can you be ‘a hard core Jays fan since 1982′…the better part of 30 years…and be so fucking stupid??

    • Ugh. Lots of great teams have endured a few losing streaks over the span of a season. What fucking difference does it make to a team’s playoff chances if one of them takes place at the beginning of the season? Zero.

  5. Seems like you don’t even need a bottom half of the graph when they play on the road

  6. wasn’t it pitching that was our problem last year, with more and more quality starts coming, why can’t we score more then 1-2-3 runs, what has changed, how can everyone bee so cold right now….grrrr
    come on bats, lets get some hits please, walks are coming more and more, but we can’t seem to string anything together.

  7. Isn’t ” 25-year old making his 2nd career start.” like Bluejays offense kryptonite?

  8. Don’t worry, we’ll have another “it’s early, you’re all idiots” post soon to calm us down.

  9. Lost in all of this is one kind of mildly awesome thing – Adam Lind doesn’t suck anymore (if you believe productive OBP is adequate). Is it okay to bring him out of the doghouse yet, if only to make room for Colby?

  10. Sorry, that should read “doesn’t suck quite so much”.

  11. I hate to join the blame the umpires parade, but looking at brooksbaseball, Dickey’s effectiveness was really limited by not getting the low strike call. Blanco shares more blame than the umpire I think having watched the game, but I counted 7 balls clearly in the bottom of the zone, so basically 2 of the 5 walks. Plus, Dickey got a whopping 1 ball out of the zone called for a strike. Gonzalez didn’t get the low strike 3 times, but got the benefit of 3 balls called strikes. There were another 5 or 6 balls called on Dickey that were closer horizontally to the plate than the one Strop got on Melky.

    Time to try Thole as Dickey’s catcher I think

  12. AA should update his CV. He’s going to need it — and rightfully so.

    • So hard to separate the trolls from the idiots. And worse yet, the idiot trolls.

      • Go suck a dick.

        The bigger idiots are the ones who continue to blindly follow this GM.

        He traded away the farm for a team that will still finish 4th in the division.

        • Not sure who you are or why you think your opinion counts but it bet you it would be hard to find anyone actually in the baseball industry that thinks that AA made bad moves this off-season.

        • You’re a fucking idiot. AA built a team that was favoured to win the world series – without even spending into the top 5 in the league.

          That the outcome isn’t there yet has to do with… wait for it you fucking idiot… that it is a competitive sport and you can’t have a certain outcome just because you want it.

    • Its hard to differentiate between humour and seriousness on here sometimes. But the rightfully so, doesnt have me laughing.

  13. Who is to say one way or another what the team needs to be doing to find their swing. More carrots? At anyrate, I am going to stick to the old adage that they really need to forget what just happened and move on to the next game and get better results.

  14. Stoeten you need to create a “Guide to Baseball 101″ for all the idiots going nuts so far.

  15. I think it’s time bring Josh Thole up from AAA. Not seeing the point of having Blanco on roster. Thole would actually be a decent bat on the bench with a proven record of getting on base and would be a great platoon partner with JPA. Blanco hasn’t shown the ability to catch Dickey any better than Arencibia, so whats the point of having him taking up a roster spot? #freethole

    • “Thole would actually be a decent bat on the bench with a proven record of getting on base ”

      lmao ffs really…..

      and Blanco had 1 of our 5 hits last night. and sucks just as bad as Thole with the bat. Catchers who have played 3 games aren’t the reason we have lost 13

      • Tholes career OBP is .331 with more than 1000 PA in his career. The Jays main problem right now is getting on base. Blanco provides nothing to this team that makes him worth a roster spot.

    • Don’t you remember? He’s a good clubhouse guy.

      • no one remembers that, cause it was never said. It was a depth move. Thole and Blanco are about the same, cheap, can catch Dickey, can’t hit. Its the only reason he was signed. If Blanco goes down, Thole is there, if we didn’t have Blanco, JPA would have to catch Dickey if Thole goes down, “again”.

        • Blanco hasn’t caught Dickey better than Arencibia at this point. He had more passed balls last night too, but because his name isnt JPA, nobody rips him.

          Thole career OBP is .331, Blanco is .291. Im sorry but im pretty sure thats a big difference, not basically the same. I dont like wasting roster spots on guys like Blanco and DeRosa who provide little value in any aspect of the game.

          • its not that big a difference when you think 3 of 10 is 300…..

            and JPA Sucked balls at catching Dickey, Blanco has done better hands down, if you dont agree, thats your choice, but i would assume you dont get it.

            Tholes OBP has dropped .050 in the past couple years, years he has been injured, hes not really an upgrade over Blanco that would warrent losing the depth he provides.

            As for DeRosa, im with you.

        • That’s not what John Lott said:

          “A 15-year veteran who has played for nine teams, Blanco is an adroit defensive catcher with a .227 career batting average. The Jays are giving him a chance in part because of his work ethic and reputation as a clubhouse leader and role model.”

          http://bit.ly/Ywukzu

          • yes, because Lott knows every detail of every contract

          • Sorry, that was for the Coach.

            • here is what AA said…..

              “Right now he’s competing to be a backup, but the fact that he’s shown enough durability to catch 100 games or more a few years, there’s certainly some value there as well. If something was to happen to J.P., Henry Blanco just cannot play every day.”
              Anthpoulos added the catching depth in the Blue Jays organization has recently become “somewhat scarce,” despite his belief that prospect A.J. Jimenez will be “an outstanding player.”

              • Thole and Blanco are compareable hitters and both considered strong defensive players. I would say having Thole in AAA making the bulk of the starts will be better for him long term if we need him to start if jp goes down.

      • I dont know why people discount this.

  16. Everyone I was watching the game with was screaming for Melky to go for the inside-the-parker. I mean, there were 2 fucking outs already, with Lawrie coming up who had been struggling mightily at the plate.

    • Wilner covered this pretty well last night. The throw form the outfield had Melky beat, you can’t be counting on a major league player to miss that final throw home, as he did unfortunately.

      • note…i was also wanting that inside the park homerun and seeing the dugout’s reaction afterwards made me sad

        • still shoulda went for it, also Rasmus should went for it in the 3rd. Rivera’s decision to put up the stop sign at third was a bad idea, Colby had it. Down by 4 runs that early, fucking go for it! Both times the throw was off the plate, may have made for some close plays yes, but i think both Melky and Rasmus coulda made it home safely, again, close plays, but safely. You can’t play it safe like that and hope someone will hit you home when your down by 4 runs in the third, you have to take the chance and send the runner, and the jays took no chances in the game at all, well, other than the giant chance of hitting Lind second, which i cannot fathom how they came up with that idea!

    • Well they were reading the throw from the outfield which was right on the money…the throw from the cut off guy was the one that was offline, it was clearly the right call.

  17. I still have faith, but truth is things are slipping very fast. The guys calling all of the fans idiots need to check themselves. Who the fuck are you to tell someone to react to a sports team? Lol fuck off. People have been freaking out about sports for many years, and for some reason social media seems to have created this divide between general sports fans and assholes that think because they can browse fangraphs they are an expert.

    Unfortunately, the next 5 games have become very important. Using hypotheticals here of course, IF they lose again today and IF they don’t win at least 3/4 in NY, the Jays will be in a very deep hole that even the “it’s still early” obssessers (not a word?) won’t be able to deny. It really sucks, and there are still reasons to be optimistic, but the panicking fan is not completely in the wrong. We aren’t out of it by any stretch of the imagination, but we are too close for comfort to another season of meaningless August baseball.

    From yesterdays game, I had a strong feeling we were going to lose after Colby wasn’t sent home, setting up the Blanco/Kawasaki double play. Blanco is Molina slow, and that should have been taken into consideration, yes even in a split second decision, when Colby was held at 3rd. They may have been going against the odds, but when the offense is bone dry…you have to take a shot at sparking something.

    I am one of the few that actually enjoy Wilner and his dedication to the Jays. It’s pretty funny when he shoots down all of the morons too. Last night though he argued hard regarding the above Colby situation and the not sending Melky for the inside the park homerun. But imo they should have been sent, even if it is a high risk play. As close as you get to a desperate situation, any slim chance you get for the run should be taken.

    Go Jays!

    • agree with you in a way about needing to be sent home, same as the Melky hold on the triple. The only issue i have with it, and its not the first game we have seen the hold sign when he should have been sent because he would have been safe moments. the only problem i have is that in that moment, you dont want to run into outs when the bats aren’t working. And with 1 out it made sence, cause I fly ball, and Colby scores sitting on 3rd.

      So i will say yes and no to that one.

      Then to the other part……eh, i can get what your saying, but at some point, those pankie fans really need to fuck off also.

    • +1 to first paragraph, especially the fangraphs line….haha

    • Yes it is no longer so early and whether it is bad luck or something else won’t matter if they keep going this way for too much longer.

      But the problem isn’t people complaining about that or bringing it up.

      The problem is people saying “fire AA” or “fire Gibby” or “what a mistake Dickey is” or “Bautista should do _____ [anything different than he has been doing for 3 years now]“.

      That is where the stupidity lies. This is the team. It’s a fucking great team. Every person in baseball knows this team has the talent to win the world series. Now we sit and watch. And debate in-game strategy. And complain about hideous calls. And hope all the guys play well – even the guys we don’t like for some arbitrary reason.

      It’s not the complaining. It’s the drawing of narratives and conclusions based on 3 weeks of play.

      AA’s report card won’t even be out in October. This team will be judged by this year AND the two after it. That’s the average length of all these contracts.

    • Well said.

      The “it’s early” crowd is more nauseating than the “sky is falling” crowd. I’m part of neither.

    • +1

      The team is struggling to score. Send nelly home

  18. I wonder if this is the worst April any Jays fan could ever have imagined. It’s not the results, it’s the effort. These guys just look like losers: big swings in singles counts, taking strike three in big situations and then whining about it afterwards etc. Pitchers walking themselves into trouble and then giving up two-out hits over and over and over.

    I find it hard to believe they can be a 500 team and the playoffs are out of the question.

    Reyes was too important to this team and Izturis, Bonifacio, Bautista and company have just been crap all year. Oh yeah, 2 errors from Lawrie already, he makes a nice play and then fucks up an easy one.

    You literally could go on and on about how bad each individual player has been, no one off to a good start, all the SP up and down (at best.)

    When you best player after 23 games is JA Happ, you know you’re screwed.

    • Every team looks bad when they lose. They lost by one run. They had the winning run at the plate. And might have been tied already from the inning before if the ump didn’t call ball 4 on Melky a strike instead.

    • Outside of 2 or 3 more big injuries – this is as bad of an April that could have been imagined.

      Our stud SPs have performed like the David Purcey and Brian Tallet types we used to have.
      Our offense looks lost. We aren’t getting on base, we aren’t using the speed we have (cause not getting on base) and our hitting in the clutch is non-existant
      Then our defense which I thought would be a strength – has been brutal

      To have played so bad on the 3 components of baseball and still have won 8 games gives me encouragement that when it turns, a lengthy winning streak is going to happen

  19. The Miami Marlins had a great team on paper too last year. Same to a lesser extent, the Red Sox.

    Look where that got them. Why the fuck won’t people wake up and realize, this team is not that fucking good?

    • Or maybe there are 10 teams that are good in baseball and the Jays are just one of them and it is a fucking sport and you can’t guarantee any outcome?

      Lots of “good” teams will “fail” this year.

      This is all covered by Grade 4 math.

  20. It’s the second year in a row that we have horrible offence in April. The only difference is that last year EE had a monstrous April and bail the team but this year he is in a slump too.
    If we hover around .500 in the first two months of the season I think they’re still in a good shape. They need to pick it up though. Playing shit baseball in the next 20 games can break this teams back.

  21. The good news is, they’re only 5.5 games out of the division, and like 4 out of a wildcard. It’s only April and there’s seven-eighths of the season to go. It CAN be turned around. They just can’t keep digging a bigger hole.

  22. What the heck with with Lawrie? Is there a pitch he doesn’t swing at? The coaches need to tell him to not swing at anything until he has two strikes (just for a game or two). The more pitches he sees, the better his timing will become after his late start. (Just a suggestion, obviously I am not a baseball coach.)

    • i think its a classic case of trying to “hit yourself out of a slump” which doesn’t work. Your right that he needs to slow down and see more pitches, dont know if waiting for 2 stikes is a good idea, but taking a few here and there wouldn’t hurt him.

      maybe he needs to cut the red bull to 5 a day.

    • Lawrie is behind because he missed ST.He’s still learning. He’s used to his athletic ability being enough to excel.But he’s so anxious to prove he’s a competitor/a warrior he doesn’t even try to outthink the opposition. He blows his load before he completes the task.Yeah I know it’s a politically incorrrect thing to say but fuck it.
      Lawrie’s got to think. He has to learn what the pitchers are trying to pitch to him.He has the tools but now’s the time to play smart.

    • yea, he seems like he’s trying to win the game all by himself. You could see Gibby talking to him after his last at bat and one would assume thats exactly what they were talking about.
      I know this was said last year, but it’s because he’s young and super confident in himself and his abilities, some might say too confident. He’ll come around as he ages, learn to be more patient at the plate and wait for a good pitch to hit.

  23. Dickey said this after the game: “I’m not 100%. I am giving all I can but I feel like I’m going in to battle with a 3-shooter instead of a 6-shooter.”

    Did he mean it just isn’t clicking / his execution isn’t 100%? Or is something wrong with him / his back or something is bothering him and his health isn’t 100%? If he isn’t feeling 100%, this is a problem.

    Can someone clarify if they saw him speak after the game?

    • he said he was still in some amount of pain yesterday. But still looked OK, the 5 walks are what killed him

  24. 4.5 games out of a playoff spot with 141 games left to play. Yeah…blow it up.

  25. Hey, look on the bright side. Its an afternoon game today. Which means I can curse at the game while sitting at my desk at work rather than at home watching it by myself.

  26. I remind myself of the interview Gillick did before he was inducted into the Hall.
    When asked which was the the best team he ever assembled, the ’92 or the ’93 Jays?
    He said “neither, the ’91 Jays were the best team I ever assembled”
    Makes ya think.

  27. This shit is so painful to watch.

    I just wish that once, once Buck and Tabby would roust from their slumber and rip this team for their shitty and uninspired play.

    • They’re too busy slobbering over the likes of Adam Jones, Chris Davis and Matt Wieters.. You know Tabby likes them big and strong, and with the soft hands too. Buck seemed genuinely happy when calling the wakl-off hits for the Royals and Orioles over the past two weeks.

      Nowadays I just watch the game on mute, Buck and Tabs are simply horrible. The Jays’ broadcast crew is barely above Hawk Harrelson in the stupid and annoying department.

      • I get what your saying, but to say that they are anywhere close to The Hawk in the shit department is false.

        • Agreed. Let’s get one thing straight here: as bad as Buck and Tabby can be, they are NOWHERE NEAR AS TERRIBLE as thou who shalt not be named. Listening to White Sox guy makes me cringe with anger as I fantasize about stabbing a pencil through his eye.

          Okay, that was a joke.
          But he is legitimately the most annoying commentator I’ve ever heard, any sport.

        • Oh no, Buck and Tabs are a level above the Hawk in the shit department, I mean, the Hawk is on a level of homerism and shit all his own, but Buck and Tabs shouldn’t in any way, shape or form be considered good. They’re barely passable as it is.

      • Skeezey and Wheezey are crapola…Rogers sycophants.

  28. It would be par for the course if the jays lost to a shot ballet today

  29. Don’t worry…Laffey will fix everything.

  30. The bats are just so cold right now, and i don’t just mean obp. I don’t mind the team having a low obp if they hit for enough power and home runs, similar to what they did last year when they lead the league in scoring before bautista got hurt. Every roster spot is upgraded or the same from last year, apart from maybe 2b, and even then Izturis is way below his numbers from last year. So, I think they’ll come around.

  31. Tired of hearing Tabby and Buck aka. Skeezey and Wheezey tell me that Dickey pitched a great game, and listening to Wilner defend every crap move that Gibby makes…60 games in, and no improvement, Gibby gets the gate. We have no bench/pinch hitting, no plate discipline. Lawrie is needs to ride the pines for a while.

    • Dickey had one bad inning with a lot of hard luck, flukey hits.

      Lawrie was injured and missed ST, so his bat has not heated up. He should be benched for who? DeRosa? Give me a fucking break.

    • And you do realize, Kyle, that Managers don’t create performance on the field or decide many games, right?

  32. I think they lose by one run again and get swept because Orioles KNOW HOW TO WIN ONE RUN GAMES!

  33. awful baseball to watch. just awful…also, i hope pedro strop took that ump out for drinks after the game. The lobby bar in The Lord Baltimore is pretty fun.

  34. I am definitely disappointed with this start; this division is too competitive to go down this road this early. Sure, all teams go through down streaks, but we have to win 5 in a row just to get to .500 ball.

    However, the way they have been playing I am not certain it shouldn’t be worse than it is. We are lucky to have 8 wins, and that is truly the scary part. How many games this season have we had more than 7-8 hits? You can’t fucking win like that,I don’t care how many solo home runs you hit.

    I was at the Yankees game on Sunday and consider myself lucky to have gone to the one game this season so far in which the Jays seem to have a little bit of energy and focus. I believe the day before that it was pointed out that JP’s strikeout to walk ratio was 28:1. That is fucking ridiculous, and then you hit him third in the lineup for a week?

    I’m not jumping off any bridges, cause I’ve seen a lot of Jays’ ball in 25 years, and this is not reversible with the talent that we have, but we have to be honest that this lineup as it stands right now is not cutting it, and some tweaks need to be made to get the right mix, and hey maybe a goddamn call going our way once in a while would help.

  35. Again. The problem with this shitty team’s pitching staff is that they allow way too many RBIs with two outs. I would venture that most of the runs scored against them this year have come with two outs. It’s loser ball.

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