April 25th v Yankees

Batter pLI WPA
Davis– DH 1.03 -0.048
Kawasaki – SS 1.00 -0.122
Bautista – RF 0.85 -0.066
Encarnacion – 1B 0.74 0.128
Cabrera – LF 0.65 -0.049
Arencibia – C 0.84 -0.055 Pitcher pLI WPA
Rasmus – CF 0.97 -0.099 Buehrle  – SP 0.81 -0.334
Lawrie – 3B 0.82 0.107 Cecil – RP 0.46 0.055
Izturis – 2B 1.13 -0.052 Lincoln – RP 0.67 0.034
Total 0.88 -0.255 Total 0.72 0.375

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

Shamsky: Edwin Encarnacion, 12.8%
Griffin: Mark Buehrle, -33.4%
Impact At-Bat: Encarnacion 2-run Home Run, Top 1, 18.3%
Impact Pitch: Robinson Cano 3-run Home Run, Bot 3, -31.3%
Highest Leverage AB: Maicer Izturis Flyout, Top 7, 2.34
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Ben Francisco, Bot 3, 2.35
Lineup Contribution: -25.5%
Pitching Contribution: -24.5%
Average Leverage Index: 0.80
Chart explanation

- Mark Buehrle’s line: 5.1ip, 7h, 3hr, 5er, 0bb, 3k, 99 pitches, 9.76FIP.

- Brad Lincoln gave up a hit and walk in his inning of work. Brett Cecil threw 1 and 2/3rds of an inning in relief, striking out one and allowing a hit.

- Edwin Encarnacion (5) homered for the 3rd straight game and Brett Lawrie (1) hit his first of the season but that was it for the Jays, who did all of their run scoring before the first out of the 2nd inning.

- Ben Francisco was called out at first on an attempted bunt in the 7th, but there was an umpire conference and the call was overturned. John Gibbons came out to rightfully call shenanigans and threw his hat on the ground, getting himself tossed for the 2nd game in a row. Sources say Gibby still the best. Reference the above gifs and make your own judgments.

- The Jays recorded 7 hits, 6 of them in the first two innings. They did not record another until Lawrie’s single in the 7th.

- Seems like I write this every day, but Lawrie was excellent defensively at the hot corner.

- Robinson Cano’s 3-run bomb in the 3rd came off a mid-80s fastball from Buehrle and took all the wind out of any positivity that came from Lawrie’s home run. All of the runs in this game came via homers.

- Hiroki Kuroda settled down after the rough start. He lasted 6 and didn’t give up another hit after the 2nd inning.

- Colby Rasmus’ dad finds his son’s hitting “Painful to watch”

- Vernon Well’s continued to own Mark Buehrle’s life, because of course he does.

- WPA calls it a split decision between the offense and the pitching being responsible for the latest mess.

- This evening’s projected match-up is Josh Johnson* (4.58FIP, 0.1fWAR) v Ivan Nova (2.87FIP, 0.4fWAR). Most of the Yankees starting pitchers have really good numbers so something has to give eventually, right? … … Right? 

* – Unless he’s injured, which, ugh. 

Ah, what the hell… Here’s a happy gif.

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

{gif via Scott Johnson / Scott Lewis / Gamereax }

Comments (77)

  1. The Blow Jays now sport a nifty -31 run differential, good for third (worst) in the league behind Miami and Houston. Go Jays!!

    • At least they have a badass manager!

    • is that you,miller?

      • Must be….because he posted the identical “The Jays now have a -31 run differential” on the Globe and Mail comments page.
        Miller…you’re getting awfully sad.

        • Miller also calls them the Blow Jays. Some people and their spare time… I suppose it was just a matter of time before he brought his inane ramblings here.

          • Has he mentioned his other adolescent nicknames for the team on this esteemed board?
            What about “Spasmus”? Or his cherry picked statistics?
            How about the”three key member”s of the Cardinals’ World Series pitching staff that the Jays traded away? That was a funny one…for the first 3 years.
            If anyone needed a fucking punch in his smarmy yap…this guy does.
            GOD, being able to vent in proper terms without the Globe & Mail’s censor kicking in is very refreshing. Hey, Miller…kiss my ass, alright?

    • I’m not Miller, and I don’t post on the Globe & Mail. Only here and BBTF.

    • Wow, Blow Jays!! How original. Did you come up with that yourself? Are you also the genius that came up with Stankees and Red Sux? Impressive, douche bag.

      • Busted, Miller….so busted.
        How about R.A Duckey? The Craptors? Sound familiar?
        Nothing about Buerhle’s dogs?

        • yeah it’s him allright the cocksucker. Would love to track that IP address

          • If it’s the real Miller doesnt he live somewhere down east?

            • Busted, busted, busted. I fucking love it.
              He’ll be backtracking all the way to Peggy’s Cove now.
              Apparently, from someplace in the Maritimes where he’s from, they like the Massholes much more than “Canada’s team”.

  2. The look on boni’s face in that gif “what in the fuck!!… oh shit eye contact!”

    as morrow pushes by smirking to himself “what a fuckin’ idiot”

  3. Can any of us start questioning what the fuck Chad Mattola has done to our hitters, Jesus Christ!

    • Keep in mind that Rasmus was terrible before so maybe he’ll take awhile. They made some remarks last night about how JPA has lowered his hands and anytime JPA wants to start hitting for average is ok with me. Lind is definitely taking more walks. (about 3 years too late).
      I dont know a thing about Izturis or Bonifacio but they should be made to stay late after school.

    • If you think a hitting coach has that much influence over his hitters, you need to educate yourself.

  4. Did anyone else catch the bit where Jack Morris responded to the note on Lind’s paternity leave by connecting it guys becoming polygamists to get a month off? He’s now crossed the Riccardi Line, going from incompetent to mildly offensive.

  5. The only person that doesn’t give a shit that the Jays keep losing is my 6 year old. I give it until June until he becomes disgruntled like everyone else.

  6. So the umpire RIGHT THERE called Francisco out, but the umpires 90+ feet away decided it was the wrong call. Even though they have no method of replaying it.

    I’d be fucking livid too. Atta boy Gibby.

    • Yeah, and the guy who made the original OUT call, then supposedly agreed with all the others that he was wrong. ( according to the crew chief who tossed gibbons) If he truly believed that, why did he call him out in the first place? The fukin umps can’t even lie properly.MLB better look at the incompetence of some of these fuckers.

      • Not really pissed about that call so much as I’m pissed about the calls (especially balls and strikes) in general. I’m getting that paranoid feeling that they dont like the Jays and it’s a little bit Lawrie and a little bit JB.

        • I think you are correct. they have received an inordinate number of bogus ball/strike counts. I’ve seen bad calls in other games but it seems like many more in jays games. I thought Bud gave a shit about the integrity of the game

  7. Johnson will miss tonight’s start due to triceps tightness


    OK, so NOW it is time to panic, right?

    • Can Laffey really be worse than Johnson?

      I guess in theory he could be but that is one tall order.

      • Laffey is garbage. Johnson is not. So yea, it can be much worse.

        • Unfortunately Johnson has yet to pove to TO fans he can pitch this season. So garbage in garbage out. So therefore Laffy could do no worse than what Johnson has shown this season.

          Its sad to see this team playing like they are still in spring training or a AAA baseball team. It seems besides Reyes TO picked up a pile of guys entering the later half of their careers with the best years behind them. The Yankees are fielding mostly retreads and Blue Jays B team of a few years ago,but are succeeding. The same could be said for Boston where the Jays should be in standings if everything did work out. John Farrel maybe was/is smarter than people give him credit for.

          With Regards to Gibby, I think its great, but the rest of this team is not gelling. By the all star break the starting rotation may look alot different yet again with Drebek…et. al coming off DL and if they can perform. It seems the Jays are worse then the Team they field last year at this point in the season.

          • I have an idea! How about the hitters win us a game for once…..

            :( I know…aint gonna happen

            • That was kind the plan this year. The hitting was supposed to make up for the shoddy defense going into this season. So far, not so good.

          • Dont think you’ll see Drabek or Perez til August if that. And you definitely wont see Hutch til next year.

  8. Is that really Rasmus’s dad?

    My dad just figured out email this year. I can’t imagine him tweeting about my performance at my job – joking(?) or not.

  9. What I didn’t notice in that GIF at first was bautista dancing like a crazy person in front of Lawrie.

  10. ESPN New York: “The Jays were so hot off Kuroda early you wondered if they were stealing signs.” http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/yankees/post/_/id/53486/rapid-reaction-yankees-5-blue-jays-3-2

    Seriously. They won’t let that shit go even when the Jays lose a ballgame.

    • “Wait, the Blue Jays got some hard hits off Kuroda so the first thought is they were stealing signs? Is this about the “white shirt” lies that got debunked two years ago?

      Why not theorize that Cano’s on PEDs from his home run? You actually have more to go on there.”


      • Cano probably is on PEDs. He was linked to Biogenesis last week.

        That said, most of the league is probably on PEDs of some variety. A recently injected lab monkey could probably pass the MLB testing program.

  11. Don’t worry guys, we got it today with Josh Joh… oh… shit. Ok, maybe tomorrow then. Happ vs Sabathia? Hmmm, well I guess the Jays can stick to the “let’s at least win the last game of the series” thing they have going.

  12. Okay, here’s the glass half full argument: Laffey gets by for one start with some smoke and mirrors because he realizes that most of the Yankees hitters fucking suck and stops trying to dance around them.

    We get on Sabathia early and often – he is a guy who will give up some home run balls early if you don’t let him settle in.


    This team is just too fucking good to be this shitty. Last year we had Francisco Cordero as our goddamned closer and Henderson Alvarez as our second best starter and we were over .500 until the gypsy curse hit us. At some point something has to go well.

    I hope.

  13. From a commens section of Wilner’s latest post:

    “I think one thing that is being overlooked in reacting to the Jays’ poor start this year is the context in which they are losing.

    As of Apr. 25th, they are 9-14 and a combined 16.5 games behind their AL East opponents. Their schedule has been more AL East-heavy in the early going than I can remember in recent seasons. So while they are losing, they are pushing their division rivals farther ahead of them and burying themselves.

    The cumulative games behind division rivals as of April 25th is the most since the 2003 season. That year Toronto was 9-15 and 20.5 games behind on this date. While they recovered to go 86-76 that year, they finished third in the division and didn’t go to the post-season.”

    Everybody beat up on Tampa Bay and Baltimore in 2003, hence the fact the Jays could be so far behind on April 25th and still recover.

    • Cumulative games behind… now there’s an interesting stat.

      • Well considering how many games are played against each other, it probably has some significance.

        Don’t ask me to explain further though. I don’t math.

        • It has absolutely zero significance.

          • Of course it has some significance. Saying it doesn’t is equivalent to saying it doesnt matter if you are 5 games back of one team vs five games back of 4 teams.

            The more games you are behind each team infront of you compounds the difficulty in catching all the teams.

        • It doesn’t take a lot of math to realize that it really doesn’t make any damned sense.
          Is being in last place bad? Yes. But they are a handful of games out of first. Not a cummulative fuck ton of games out of first.
          You can only play one opponent at a time. If you win games, the rest takes care of itself.

          …. so…Now they just have to, you know, WIN some fucking games.

          • Lets say you are 8 games back of the yankees and 10 games back of the first place redsox.

            red sox lose ten in a row..jays win ten in a row. they are now tied with boston

            but lets say during that ten game period yankees went 3-7.

            now the jays one game back of first place..despite going 10–0 and the THEN first place sox going 0-10.

            so effectively they WERE 11 games back.

            so yeah, it matters.

      • The cumulative games behind may not mean shit, but their play against the AL East is concerning as each W/L vs. an ALE opponent is instantly, and always will be, a two game swing in the standings, whearas games against other opponents is only, automatically a one game swing, with a 0 or 2 swing dependent on other contests outside of the Jays control.

        • +1. It also helps the Jays see how they do against their rivals. Lots of games in September against the AL East.

  14. Laffey Goes 8.1 tonight FTW!

  15. Blue Jays scratch Johnson.

    Sounds like what they’ve been doing all season!!

  16. Yes, it is still early.
    But what, if any, are the signs that this group can turn it around?

    For example, Adam Dunn was 1/30 something headed into Wed.
    He then walked 3 times in 4 PA’s (seeing the ball better)
    Thurs made two line drive outs and his 3rd PA was a 2 run homer.
    You could actually see the guy coming out of his funk.

    What about the Jays? Can we see any signs?

    EE has started to hit the ball hard.
    He has some homers and some at em balls;
    but those at em balls will sooner or later begin to fall for hits. He’s on his way.

    Lawrie seems to be showing better plate coverage. Maybe there is hope for him.
    However, he’s a bundle of energy constantly on the verge of being out of control.
    by comparison, Machado is under control to the point of appearing virtually comatose.
    I’d like to see Lawrie adopt a little bit of that.
    Use his great athleticism, but play under control and quit whinging.

    Second base is a black hole. Don’t see how that is improved without a personnel
    change. These guys don’t have the range, the arms or the consistency. Their inability
    to make plays shows up in longer innings and weaker pitching stats.

    They need a better approach at the plate. Too many all or nothing swings. To be successful, most hitters have to be willing to take the ball up the middle or go the other way. So far, very little of that from the Jays.

    I’m not giving up; but I can’t say I’m terribly optimistic.

    • Call up Negrych for 2B. It can’t be any worse than it already is with 2B.

    • @STW, Why did AA sign Izturis to a 3 year contract in the first place?

      Was he the best available 2B?

      Kelly Johnson was better defensively than Izturis.

  17. For this team to continue like this, the majority of the players on this team would need to underperform compared to what they have done in previous years.While anything is possible, baseball is life.
    AA has been the most innovative GM in baseball, with some of the best minds to advise him.And include Beeston.
    If you think that if the Jays are still shitting the bed after 50 games and he’s going to be sitting on his hands,you’re dreaming.

    • Personally I don’t want to hear about how smart Alex Anthopolous is again until there are some results on the field.

      So far he has a last place finish and a team that is in last place in April.

      There is only so much marveling at his intelligence that can buy. Not saying they can’t turn it around but I’m sort of a results based fan not an expectations based.

      • It’s obviously not enough for you to aquire the current NL Cy Young winner, the 2011 and 2012 NL batting champ to accompany the player who has hit more HR’s than any other player since sept.2009 and a 1B who hit 42 dingers.
        Yup, a recipe for disaster.
        I’ll take my chances.

      • EZ – he upgraded the talent on this team by 100 percent. All AA can do is get them to sign contracts….he can’t make them healthy, nor hit/field the ball.

        • Professional sports is a tough business you are judged on your results not the could have the would haves or the should haves.

          The injury excuse gets far less entertaining when you go out and get players with long track records of being injured.

    • “Underperform what they’ve done in previous years”, eh?

      All along this team was wildly unpredictable. If all the players came close to their career best years, we could have had a 110 win team, but if all of them performed at a level closer to their career worst, we’d be lucky to win 70. Of course having them all suck at once is bad luck, but not in any way unimaginable. Every player on the roster, with the exceptions of Buerhle and Arencibia, have had very inconsistent careers.

      This is the regulars, with the worst OPS+ for each player in a season over the last three years (at least 300 PA).

      Reyes – 103 (2010)
      Davis – 67 (2011)
      Izturis – 82 (2012)
      Cabrera – 83 (2010)
      Bautista – 137 (2012)
      Encarnacion 109 (2010)
      Lind – 90 (2010)
      Arencibia – 89 (2012)
      Lawrie – 97 (2012)
      Rasmus – 85 (2012)

      Not a successful lineup, espcially when you consider only three of them (Lawrie, Rasmus and Bautista) have plus defense.

      How about starting pitchers? Same idea, only with ERA+ and a 100 IP minimum.

      Dickey – 112 (2011)
      Morrow – 90 (2011)
      Buerhle – 100 (2010)
      Johnson – 103 (2012)
      Happ – 71 (2011)

      I had a lot of hope that this team could get a few breaks for a change (especially after last year’s injury carnage) and challenge for a division title. The player talent is certainly there. The player results were only ever hit and miss. Even if they all end up matching their career OPS+/ERA+ by the end of the season, this team won’t be sniffing the playoffs. We needed upside performances from at least half of the roster, with no black holes, to make the postseason. Its pretty clear to me now that all of that was wishful thinking.

      • Some fans always count a players career best as the player they got in the offseason and then the reality of the season kicks in.

    • @ RADAR. I agree with you, but at some point result do matter.

      I bet AA is pulling his hair out these days. He did everything that most fans said needed to be done & the results so far are much worse than expected.

      The team should perform better as the season progresses , but would anyone be happy with 85 wins at the end of the year?

  18. Our record stinks but at least we haven’t played the Astros yet

  19. What sucks is if Laffey exceeds expectations and goes 6 innings giving up 2 runs –

    He will leave the game down 2-1

    • True.

      But let’s be honest here, he should get bombed.

      • With that short left porch and a little luck he could be ok with Gardener, Overbay and Cano. but…..

        NaaaaaaaaaaH ! WTF am I thinking?

  20. It is painful watching trying to hit.. he would be better off taking as step towards the plate and let the inside pitch hit him for all the good it does him.

  21. Gibby looks like the Incredible Hulk in that pic. hahaha.

  22. Colby’s hitting is so terrible right now even his father can’t watch. ouch!

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