May 7th v Rays

Batter pLI WPA
Lawrie – 3B 1.08 -0.068
Cabrera – LF 1.14 0.136
Bautista – RF 1.82 0.003
Encarnacion – 1B 2.28 -0.018
Lind – DH 1.46 -0.079
Rasmus – CF 1.09 -0.017
Izturis- 2B / SS 1.88 -0.210 Pitcher pLI WPA
Blanco – C 0.55 -0.028 Buehrle – SP 0.73 -0.299
Arencibia – PH / C 2.30 0.765 Rogers – RP 0.40 0.017
Kawasaki – SS 0.47 0.050 Oliver – RP 0.55 0.023
DeRosa – PH / 2B 1.02 0.057 Janssen – RP 2.34 0.167
Total 1.45 0.592 Total 0.79 -0.092

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOOT: J.P. Arencibia, 76.5%
Griffin: Mark Buehrle, -29.9%
Impact At-Bat: Arencibia 2-Run Home Run, Top 9, 72.3%
Impact Pitch: Evan Longoria Grand Slam, Bot 3, -12.4%
Highest Leverage AB: Jose Bautista Bases Loaded Sac Fly, Top 8, 5.44
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Kelly Johnson Strikeout, Bot 9, 3.19
Lineup Contribution: 59.2%
Pitching Contribution: -9.2%
Average Leverage Index: 1.14
Chart explanation

- Mark Buehrle’s line: 6.0ip, 9h, 7er, 2hr, 2bb, 5k, 107 pitches, 5 swinging strikes, 29 game score, 6.68 FIP.

- Jeremy Hellickson’s line: 5.0ip, 6h, 3er, 1hr, 4bb, 3k, 101 pitches, 8 swinging strikes, 42 game score, 6.82 FIP.

- Three innings of 2-hit relief from Darren Oliver, Esmil Rogers, and Casey Janssen.

- Buehrle got himself in deep in the 3rd after Evan Longoria’s grand slam and a follow up 2-run shot from Luke Scott gave the Rays a 7-0 lead. To his credit, he retired 11 of the next 12 batters.

- The Jays started to chip away immediately in the top of the 4th, behind a Colby Rasmus (5) 2-run shot and Melky Cabrera RBI single.

- In the 6th Gibby sent Mark DeRosa (3) to pinch hit with a runner on and for the second straight game he went deep, cutting the lead to 7-5.

- It looked like the comeback would be completed in the 7th, when back-to-back singles from Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion put two runners in scoring position with none out. An Adam Lind fielder’s choice, Rasmus K and a Maicer Izturis flyout left the Jays empty handed.

- In the 8th, a Yunel Escobar error gave the Jays runners on 2nd and 3rd again, and Bautista’s sac fly brought them within one.

- In the 9th, with 2 outs, 2 strikes, and Lind on 1st, J.P. Arencibia (9) did this. A remarkable comeback and awesome shot.

- 8 runs on 12 hits for the Blue Jays, to go along with 8 walks. That makes 18 runs on 27 hits in the last two. 

- Every Blue Jay to have an at-bat made it on base with the exception of Henry Blanco, who went 0-for-2 before being pinch-hit for in the 6th. Brett Lawrie was the only one to not get a hit, but he did draw 2 walks.

- Hell of a ballgame, and everything that happened after the 6th saved us all from this post having Mark Buehrle’s contract details in it. Whew!

- This evening’s projected match-up is J.A. Happ (4.40FIP, 0.4fWAR) v Roberto Hernandez (4.55FIP, 0.1fWAR). 

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

{gif via Josh Gold-Smith}

Comments (95)

  1. It’s satisfying watching Rodney fail while wearing his hat with swag instead of class.

  2. big win

  3. I think Bonifacio was on third when Arencibia hit the home run.

    • Yup. According to me intently watching it on Gameday, Boni was on third with no one out. When it got to JP with two outs, I was getting despondent.

    • Yep, Boni was a pinch runner after Lind walked, stole second and advanced to third when Molina’s throw bounced into CF.

  4. As bad as this season has went so far –
    Last night was so heart-pounding and fun when JPA hit that 2-run homer.

    I hope Jays fans will stop killing JPA. He is not perfect, but outside of Yadier Molina & Buster Posey, ever catcher is very flawed. We still have many more problems that our main catcher (but do want to see Thole here instead of Molina – our starters are not performing better when Molina is catching, so unless he is JPA’s mentor – there is no reason for him on this roster)

    • I think you mean Blanco, not Molina

    • I’m JP’s biggest fan (and that’s only because I like getting 25HR or more essentially for free – I’m not especially excited about anything else about his game). I mean the guy is tied for 4th in all of baseball in HR.

      I have to admit though, his comments about being benched didn’t sound like much of a team player. This World Series favourite team is 10 games below .500 and he gets benched one night and doesn’t take it graciously? Ugh. Yes I know these guys have to fight for their playing time and look out for themselves – but this was one game.

      This HR will make him even more cocky now. He needs to learn to at least pretend to be a team player.

      • He’s a proud guy, with a healthy ego. He’s also seen his role as the face of the Jays diminish with Dickey’s arrival, so to be benched for a catcher who just can’t hit while being among the top HR hitters in the league…well, I can understand the frustration and I don’t mind the passion behind the comments.

  5. Napoli, Cano, and Longoria have all bent Buerhle over this SEEZIN. Buerhle bro, stop throwing BP to your opponents best bats. Walk in a fucking run if you have to.

    • Yeah why doesn’t he just pitch better?

      Or walk in runs until all the batters have gone. That ends the inning right?

    • Don’t forget Vernon Wells, a career .500 hitter against Buerhle who has a couple big hits off of him already this season.

    • How could we be so stupid all this time and not realize that walking runs in when the opposing team’s best batter is at the plate was the solution this whole time!?!?


      • Better than serving up meatballs to all-stars you fucking numbskulls. Buerhle is going to have a 4+ ERA. Its a given. We can live with it. Cant live with 6+.

        • Chone go early and watch batting practice sometime. You may be shocked to find out that the majority of literal batting practice pitches are NOT hit for home runs.

          Barry Bonds at his peak is the only player in the history of baseball worthy of being walked intentionally with the bases loaded. And even then, it is pretty sad that the pitcher couldn’t just pitch around him and see if he swings at a pitch a foot off the plate and grounds out.

        • You’d rather walk a guy, which gives you a run expectancy of -1.0, than pitch to Longoria, which gives you a run expectancy of, I dunno, about -0.6 and might give you an out? And *we’re* fucking numbskulls?

          • I want him to nibble once in awhile. If that amounts to a walk I am cool with it. You know what else it might amount to? An out. I am not cool with 83MPH meatballs to perennial all stars with runners on. Are you math wizards watching the same games as me or are you just punching in boxscores?

        • The ’93 Jays won a World Series with a 6+ ERA from Jack Morris. You have the internet; research isn’t hard.

    • He does seem to like to load the bases for the opposition’s best hitter – and then throw belt high 85MPH fastballs down mainstreet.

    • Yeah man I agree with you too Chone; don’t listen to sons I have discovered he is mostly here to work on his charming wit, and elevate some deluded sense of self worth by ripping on other people.

      Beuhrle is definitely a better pitcher than he has shown, but he is the kinda guy that has to pitch around sluggers like Napoli and Longoria. He showed he can do it, with really only the one inning last night being awful. I would rather him keep the ball down and walk a few guys than elevate fat hangers that get crushed by good hitters.

      Point taken.

  6. FamousAmazingGuy was keeping the fire last night…god bless you FamousAmzazingGuy

  7. Still getting chills thinking about that win last night. Too good. Let’s hope it’s the start of something.

    A bit unfair to knock Colby after a game where he contributes a two-run bomb, but here I go:

    His swing is RIDICULOUSLY long. Can’t someone start working with him on that? I’d at least like to see him cut down with two strikes, but quite honestly, it’s too long of a swing for any count.

  8. Just glad to see Gibby is finally swinging a hot bat. Just need him to pitch a little better from SP.

  9. burhle sucks

  10. Love that graph. The nosedive that follows Arencibia’s homerun reminds me of when I lost 1/2 the value of my stock portfolio in 2007!

  11. Aaron Cibia actually hit the homerun with Bonifacio on 3rd… may want to fix that up


  12. Casey Jannsen has given up 3 hits and 1 ER in 11 appearances so far this year. 8 for 8 in save opps.

    Casey is the fucken man thus far. Keep it up CJ!

    • It is kind of scary that the team is so bad that if Casey wasn’t perfect we’d be in a complete tailspin… or at least more of a tailspin.

    • First closer since Ward that allows me to actually enjoy the 9th inning. Go figure we haven’t given too many opportunities this yr.

      If its not one thing, it’s another……

  13. It is a good Yunnel still thinks he is with the Jays, without him this win dosen’t happen.

  14. Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Kelly Johnson Strikeout, Bot 9, 3.19

    Welcome to the 2012 Jays, Tampa. I hope you enjoy the ride.

  15. So this is what a winning streak feels like

    As Frank the Tank would say “We’re going STREAKING!!!!”

  16. Gibby:

    PH DeRosa for Kawasaki in the 6th – DeRosa HR
    PR Boni for Lind in the 9th – Boni SB takes 3rd on E
    PH JPA for Blanco in the 6th after keeping JPA out of the starting lineup just to try something different (Gibby fired him up!!!)

    And yet all of us Gibby supporters know better than to come on here and say “Gibby won the game for us”. But if we’d lost that game, imagine how many Gibby Haters would be on here calling for Gibby’s head.


  17. On behalf of the Blue Jays and their cynical drunken fans, and this parrot, I’d like to extend a thank you to Yunel Escobar. He may be a shit hitter, and a shit fielder, but for the Jays, he’s a team player while in a different uniform.

  18. Perfect job by Buerhle pitching to the (eventual) score.

    • +1

    • “Why cant the Jays allow me to pitch instead of Buerle?”

      cause you sound like an emotional wreck

    • He’s a crafty veteran….letting the hitters get there swings in

      • You’ve missed the strategy here. Buehrle gave up so many runs in the third inning that the Rays were exhausted from all that baserunning and couldn’t summon enough energy to swing their bats or score another run the rest of the game. This bit of genius set the stage for the fantastic comeback.

        • They didn’t have to do much running – just HR trots. Could have been tired arms and shoulders though.

  19. Mark Buerhle had the will to win that game. He pitched his team in a position that allowed them to learn how to hit their way out of a big deficit.

  20. Thats two. Now to make it three.

  21. Wow Im so glad we picked up Mark Buerhle from the Marlins and Provided them with a genuine BAILOUT.
    Every single off season acquisition has shit the bed and people want to complain JPA.
    Why is Adam Lind still in the majours?
    Why cant the Jays allow me to pitch instead of Buerle and ‘eat up innings’ and give up average 6+ runs per game and hope the offense BAILS me out. Mark Buerle has an easy job shit the bed and prey the offense backs you , I like how all the experts we salivating at the opportunity to pick up Buerle saying ‘ he just eats up innings ‘ . Yah innings are not the only thing he is eating .

    • Come on man, Jays are undefeated when Buehrle gives up 6 or 7 runs! It’s all part of the master plan.

    • You are a troll or a moron.

      It’s perfectly valid to be down on Buehrle. He’s getting older and he needs to pick corners to be effective. And so far he’s been just plain terrible.

      But get off your high fucking horse and don’t give me any bullshit about how all the ‘so-called experts’ are idiots. He’s thrown 200+ innings for TWELVE STRAIGHT SEASONS!

      That doesn’t just mean pitching a lot of innings. It means being durable and keeping a respectable ERA so that you can last deep into games.

      He’s the type of pitcher that you know won’t contend for the ERA lead, but he’ll keep you in games and, yes, chew up a ton of innings. This is also a MASSIVE benefit to a teams’ bullpen.

      Personally, I don’t know if he’ll rebound. His track record CERTAINLY says that he will. But tell me he’s finished, if you want, but don’t tell me he wasn’t ever any good and JUST ‘ate’ innings.

      That’s just idiotic.

  22. Jo Jo Buehrle

  23. Man, that GIF is satisfying.

    You missed Bonifacio’s WPA, which is an interesting little bit. He gets .203 for stealing 2B and advancing to 3B on the error, which is a big number for a pinch runner in the WPA world, but didn’t actually affect the outcome of the game at all.

  24. Is santos done for the year?

    • I’ve heard rumours of that guy the last couple years. Hopefully we can see him on the Blue Jays at some point.

  25. Let’s see how the Red Sox do as their bullpen becomes less and less “Farrell-proof”.

  26. Hanrahan and Bailey both blew their arms out. Time to take advantage and get a king’s ransom for Janssen. Do the Sox have any good 2B prospects nearly big league ready?

  27. So nice to be on the opposite side of a demoralizing loss for once!

  28. I was very impressed with the number of quality AB’s last night. Someone mentioned that about the game on Sunday and it seems they’re getting it together. That has to have contributed to Hellickson leaving early.
    After Buehrle gave up the 7 runs, Buck mentioned something about seeing if they Jays had any fight left in them. Up til 2 games ago, they HAD been giving up. It may take a little while for this to sink in, but I think the enormity of this win, in Tropicana where they never win, against a very good team which was up 7 runs, will be the turning point in the season.

    • Hellickson leaving early was a result of him being terrible.

    • Too much narrative. Cannot compute. BRBRBRBRBRRRRRRRRR

      • It’s so cute that Stoeten taught you guys that word.

        • It’s cute that the JPA home run gave this team “fight”… if he had struck out this team would have “given up” or “fallen short once again”.

          But seriously – the concept of “narrative” explaining the unexplainable in baseball has been around long before the DJF/GB crew.

          • Hey I agree with you in the ON/OFF switch of the everyday Jays fan this season, but I feel as if anyone’s optimism or pessimism is shrugged off as narrative; isn’t every subjective comment then technically narrative?

            • I’ll let you guys debate the use and meaning of the word.
              As for myself, I’m sick of it.

            • A subjective comment would be “I think the Jay’s struggles are mainly attributable to X, Y, Z” which is fine. The narrative is the “this is a turning point”, “this team has no fight left in them”, “this win will give the team some much needed momentum” stuff that, when you really break it down, just doesn’t make any sense. I see narrative as assigning some explanation to a serious of totally random events.

              But point well taken – the word is overused, no doubt.

  29. Does GBOOT stand for Greatest Bluejay Of One Time

  30. I have to take credit for this win. I was watching the game on Game Day and when Arencibia was in the 2-2 count I stared at his icon and with all my concentration, willed him to crush it. Sorry about not trying this in April. In today’s game, in Longoria’s 3rd at bat, his pants will split open as he strikes out on a mighty swing. You’ve been warned, avert your eyes.

  31. I am actually happy when Adam Lind comes to the plate nowadays.

    Look at his numbers this season:
    BB%: 21.6 K%: 12.2

    BABIP: .265, carreer .293

    And he is hitting fly balls at his regular pace. Once he hits a few homeruns he will be producing like someone who is good at baseball…

    • The production has been atrocious, but I’m really willing myself to like Lind as the “crafty veteran who works the count” nowadays. But it’d be great if he could back it up with at least a dozen homers over the course of the year – then he’d be a supremely valuable bench player/NL DH.

  32. I’m just thankful that Melky is getting it together. I have always really liked him as a ballplayer, and he has a warm smile.

    Maicer has picked it up somewhat too which is nice.

    When Colby had that at bat in the 9th I was ready to cry; it is hard to knock someone that hit a two run dinger in that particular game, but man oh man can he look like a fucking lump of poop up there sometimes.

  33. Maybe it’s the winning, or maybe it’s an adjustment to the frequency of trolls and naysayers, but this thread was downright hilarious.

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