Dear John… – Gibberish!

dearjohn-gibbers

Gibbers you ol’ shrapnel-assed sack of shit, what’s cookin’? It’s me, Stoeten!

Now look, John, I know I already wrote you once this week, and I don’t want to make this a habit– especially when what I’m telling you is going to send you into a bloody pissing and shitting rage– but you’re kinda killing me here, John. Killing me.

Oh, don’t look at me like you don’t know exactly what the fuck I’m talking about, John. That tenth inning was a bit of a fucking disaster last night, and as much as pitchers need to make their pitches, you’ve got to understand a little goddamned thing called leverage.

Believe it or not, John, I can live with whatever the fuck that was with the intentional walk to Loney. The microsplits, John– Jesus!– but I do get it. He’s 10-for-18 against lefties this year, with a pair of walks to boot. If he gets a hit there, even though it’s not nearly as likely as those gaudy numbers make you think, you get skewered for it. But John! Casey Janssen! He’s right fucking there! He had already been up and warming in the bullpen!

Maybe– maybe– you worry about burning him too quickly if there’s some directive from on-high that wouldn’t allow him to come back out for another inning because they want you to be easy on his shoulder, but shit… if you’re OK with Brad Lincoln in that situation, doesn’t it maybe follow that you could live with him to start a save situation later on, if you even managed to get yourself there?

I mean, come on, John!

And then you go and throw Lincoln under the bus!

“You shouldn’t lose games like that,” you tell reporters. “You’ve got to throw strikes. It’s pretty simple. It’s not always the easiest thing to do, but you need to throw strikes. Get beat, let ‘em hit their way to victory.”

Like… what the fuck is that??? I mean, you know who can throw strikes, John? The guy who was sitting on his ass out in the bullpen!

And no matter how badly people with oddly tenuous grasps on the notion of leverage want to defend you– saying strange things like: “Even if Gibbons had used Janssen in the highest-leverage situation Thursday night — space-time continuum considerations aside — the result of the game would have been the same. That’s because the highest-leverage situation is the bottom of the ninth of a tie game. You give up a run, you lose. No higher leverage than that.”– the fact is, the leverage index on the spot where Lincoln came in was at its third highest point of the game (double that of the start of the ninth, which, incidentally, was lower than it was for the three batters in the eighth that followed Longoria’s double), just behind Cabrera’s at-bat against Rodney the inning before, and well below the clusterfuck Lincoln found himself in after the walk to Roberts.

Maybe you know this now, John– you damn well should– but it was a situation that screamed for you to use Casey Janssen and to sort out the lead-protecting, if it ever goddamn well came to that, later.

Now, obviously this isn’t a reason to fire you– I’m not jumping on board the cottage cheese brained bandwagon with those fucking dolts– but it was bad, John. A few more like it– especially with the scrutiny so high and your team so badly needing everything to go basically fucking perfect from here on out to have a prayer– and not only will things get ugly, but I won’t be able to defend you.

Don’t let it come to that, John.

Stay gold, Ponyboy,

Stoeten

Comments (72)

  1. first

  2. wasn’t it the 10th inning?

  3. You can come into a game with a 3 run lead in the ninth and give up 3 hits and 2 walks and 2 earned runs and you still get a “save” and are worth double the guy who pitched the 7th or 8th inning. And maybe in the 7th it was tied and you came in with a man on third and no outs and got out of it unharmed.

    Absolute stupidest part of baseball.

  4. THANK YOU!!! I was losing my shit watching Jansen warming up and not coming in. You cannot get a more high leverage situation than that. Bring in your best pitcher period. STOP forcing certain guys into certain situation/innings. If Jansen was the best arm available then BRING HIM IN. jesus fuck. That was fucking heart breaking. This team is not good for my health.

  5. Couldnt agree more. But what about when the catcher got on in -8th? 9th?- where the hell is the pinch runner?

    • It was the seventh. But that didn’t warrant mention, for me. They had the lead already, and Bonifacio was the last RHB on a really thin bench after they brought JPA in for the next inning. Could have made the switch, sure, but that’s nowhere close to as bothersome as the tenth.

      • Ok I get what you are saying, but do you think this team would be better with more of a small ball approach or does it just seem that way because of how things have gone?

  6. Great letter

    Are you going to hand deliver it to Johnny or fold it up and air mail it from the 5th level?

  7. Its all Sergio Santos fault for being injured

  8. “The fact is, the leverage index” does NOT take into consideration who is available, hurting, in need of a night off, what the plans are for tomorrow’s game, and who has “looked good” in throwing and batting sessions.

    If this information was available, perhaps this letter is not written.

    This game is played by humans, therefore there is much human element that need be considered. “The fact is, the leverage index” does NOT take that into account.

    • This letter took that into consideration. Janssen was up and warming in the ninth, you dolt.

      • Yes he was, but in the event that the team took the lead, if you remember the Jays had runners on base he started warming up.

        In my opinion, it was clear that Gibbons was going to bring him i if it meant securing the win, but out side of that he wasn’t pitching. It was on the few guys left who were available to get it done last night.

        Janssen was in “use only if necessary mode”.

        It’s so clear, I wonder why you can’t see it.

        • Poor argument = “Janssen was in “use only if necessary mode”.”

          First – you have no way of knowing this.
          Second – even if it’s true, “necessary mode” is when you will lose the game if you don’t perform. So, the bottom of the 10th qualifies.

          • Re:Poor argument = “Janssen was in “use only if necessary mode”.”

            1. He pitched monday and tuesday back to back. Common sense and convention would lead to this.

            2.Gibbons chose to save Janssen for the only save situation (as evidence of him warming up in the top of the ninth). Why?…. because in my opinion, he didn’t want to burn an outing on anything less than a sure thing.

            If you have been watching the entire series in conjunction with remembering the demands on the pen in both the series and the entire year, this would be clear to you.

            Bottom line, this decision had many more variables and considerations than the leverage index.

            • Agreed, there definitely were more variables in Gibby’s mind than leverage index, and given that Janssen was available and had already been warming up, that’s precisely why it was a bad decision.

              Thanks for playing.

  9. Janssen typically throws very few pitches to get his outs a – couple of innings would’ve been easy for him.

    • He pitched in back to back games on Monday and Tuesday.

      I am not a MLB reliever, however, either are YOU or anyone else here……. and how many times do we hear that “the real test is how I feel after back to back games”

      I’m guessing that if it was to finish the game Janssen could have pitched, but anything outside of that he was likely deemed as “yellow” or “use only if necessary”.

      These are humans that play the game, not machines.

      • Again with the machines. Seriously, nobody thinks they are machines. Quit pretending you’re saying something when you say that.

        What exactly is your point — that the pitching choice Gibby made was superior to what Stoeten is suggesting, given the information we all have?

        • The point is that these arms have to be managed, and we don’t know who was available for what yesterday.

          Fatigue, overall health, etc have to be considered.

        • Re: machines:

          I’m sure nobody thinks that, but often I think that many forget that these guys get tired, sore, and less effective without adequate rest.

          Machines is just a faster way of saying it. I’ll make an effort to spell everything out for you in the future.

      • I was thinking this earlier but he was so good he only threw 10 pitches in each start. Still probably want some rest prior to the red sox series i suppose.

        • *10 pitches in each appearance

          • +15 pitches in the pen + 7 for the warm up on the mound x 2 + 10 + 10 = 64

            We have no idea the Jays think in managing his arm.

            My general point overall is that it’s not so black and white, and that within the flow of last night’s game Gibby may have only had so much to work with that was made even more challenging by the notion that the game was in extras.

            • P.S. 64 pitches at a higher intensity because he knows he only has one inning of work.

              • One question I just thought of when reading this – did Jansen get up, throw and say “can’t go, coach”? That would be another explanation of why we were treated to the joy of Brad Lincoln in such a high leverage situation?

              • “Never save your best pitcher for tomorrow; tomorrow it might rain.”
                -Leo Durocher

                Thanks for comin’ out, kids.

  10. What shocks me is that you think they even have a remote chance at this point

    • Why’? Look at this roster, if they win 18/20 then they are right back in it. I know that seems crazy, but the odds of them winning that much have to be greater than whats happened so far. Too early to give up hope. Just ask the Athletics.

    • Do you not understand what the word remote means?

  11. It is easy to second guess the manager, but still they had 2 outs and Lincoln just walked two guys, i mean, thats a worse case scenerio. Just as easy to blame Melky for not getting a hit in the 9th.

    • Not anywhere close to as easy as blaming Melky. Getting hits is harder than throwing strikes.

  12. the mistake was probably not bringing Janssen to start the inning. Gibbys not going to bring him in with 2 out if he cant come back for the next inning. Lincoln had a perfectly good opportunity to succeed and he blew it.

    • What, in your mind, would be stopping Casey Janssen from pitching 1.1 innings instead of 1? Seriously explain this to me.

  13. Yeah, I’ve got to agree with you on this. On the bright side, though, this is only the first second really daft decision Gibbons has made all year.

  14. I like this letter much better than the first one. Although I was more frustrated by the loss itself (what a sad way to go) than by Gibbons leaving Janssen in the bullpen. The ump seemed to screw the Jays on a few strike calls as well which was annoying.

  15. I was enraged when gibbons was named manager but after reading here and from other sources I warmed to it and actually thought it was a good hire. After a month of this shit (sorry no other word seems suitable) I can not defend him any more. This is not second guessing i,ve been screaming at the tv game in game out simple things gibbons has been doing or not doing. A manager deals with the players he has and cant control things i understand this. But not starting fast runners when contact guys are up and hitting into easy double plays I actually miss farrell. Has gibbons ever heard of suicide squeeze bunting guy over stealing a base your team isnt hitting yet you pull the one guy that is and weaken your defence at the same time. Stats geeks how many dp have jays hit into and what are ph avgs cold coming into game Leaving 40 yr old catcher in when you have boni on bench and then pulling him later is inexcusable. How about putting in a 200 catcher to help pitchers game and then leaving him in even after it becomes slugfest. How about scheduling a player whose con is shot to pitch vs hernandez ahhhhhh. Playersorry done ranting carry on

    • The lack of bunting and small ball bullshit is such a huge part of what makes Gibbons great, because that stuff is very counterproductive except in certain rare situations.

      • Yes and its worked so well waiting for the jays to get a hit with runners in scoring position or leading league in solo home runs

        • This isnt small ball just simple baseball full count you start your runner . Not steal and get thrown out by 5 feet but get them more than a foot off 1st. How many dp have the jays hit into when baserunner isnt even in the picture at 2nd While the opposing team the runner breaks up jays dp. How many runners have been left at 3rd with less than 2 out. We dont know because he didnt do it but maybe bonifacio runnig for blanco and they A. They dont hit into a dp or b he steals a base and puts himself in scoring position putting more pressure on pitcher thereby forcing the pitcher to throw strikes to a patient smart hitter who realizes he is in control not the pitcher. It is called utilizing what you are given.

  16. Sorry hit submit by accident was going to add players are creatures of habit and he is changing the lineup daily. Everyone has been saying its early and its a small sample size which i agree but switching batters and lineups because a guy is 4 /18 as example is also small sample size. Some jays are slow starters and will come along and foolishly i think they still have a shot. You can argue im way off but the proof is in their record and gibbons 5yrs prev players have fallen below career norms last time he was managing. Im done call me idiot whatever

  17. Wonder what the Vegas odds on tonights matchup is, with Ortiz vs Bucholz?

    +188 Toronto

    Fuck it, I think I will drop 100 on Toronto. Stranger things have happened. Rasmus might not strike out 4 times…

    • If they are +188 does that mean you are getting $188 for every $100 you bet? Because thats some sweet juice right there…that can’t be real, I would take the Astros over the Braves for that.

      • Yup..

        Moneyline odds

        Moneyline odds are favoured by American bookmakers. There are two possibilities, the figure quote can be either positive or negative.

        Moneyline odds are often referred to as American odds. Moneyline refers to odds on the straight-up outcome of a game with no consideration to a point spread.

        Positive figures
        If the figure quoted is positive, the odds are quoting how much money will be won on a $100 wager (this is done if the odds are better than even).

      • You must not bet very often.

  18. I wrote this earlier on another site. Stoeton this was brilliant and you summed it up better than I did in the second paragraph.

    I don’t know how this gets any better, the bullpen as is tired looking as Helen Hunt in Twister. Loup’s looks as if he couldn’t even make a muscle to hold Edwin’s parrot at this point. Oliver must be like I should be in Jamaica sipping rum and now we have Ramon Ortiz gonna suck like all other Ortiz’s that have touched a major or minor league field ever other than David. Look up Ortiz’s other then Papi that list is huge mediocrity. It’s time to bring back lefty specialist Brian Bohanon and looks like one of those ‘Social Network’ rower douches just to eat up some god damn innings.

    As a huge Jays fan I made a pact to not get too high or low with this team as the expectations were through the roof this season. Last night for me though had me frustrated more than any game this year. The bottom of the 10th inning was the most mismanaged I’ve pretty much seen in the game. Jays have 2 outs with Longoria up to the plate with a lefty on the hill. They decide to pitch to him and he rips a double. Fine! Now you got your lefty lefty matchup and you decide to INTENTIONALLY WALK LONEY!!! My cripes Loney isn’t a huge threat make him beat you, you have 2 out! When Lincoln is brought in I knew it was over. I was beyond words, we all can blame JPA, umps, etc. But why this loss, this is all on the coaching staff. Now tonight Ortiz is going to be lit up like a Christmas tree!

  19. Still, 2/4 from Tampa, however painful, is still a small victory for the Jays.

  20. I’ll take shit for this, but here goes. AA made a bad miscalculation. He thought that he’d brought in enough talent that all they needed was a babysitter or cheer leader and that Gibby would do that job. Now that some of the talent is injured and some of the talent is underperforming, we’re seeing that that’s not the case. I’m not saying for a second that our current plight is Gibby’s fault, but I also don’t think that Gibbons is getting the most out of the players either. I have to feel like a better manager would get a few more percentage points out of them, especially when so little is working well.

  21. meh. not as funny this time. but I would have used Jansen after Lincoln gave up the walk.

  22. Wilner’s post was well-thought-out but still incredibly waffley.

    Ninth vs tenth is small potatoes. Yes, technically, you need to get through the ninth to get to the tenth, but if you’re willing and trustful of giving Oliver two innings you could do worse than leaving him in for the ninth against the bottom of the order.

    You really can’t ask for a better spot to face Longoria than 2 outs, nobody on. Seems strange that if you were willing to go to Lincoln later in that inning you wouldn’t bring him in right there. Or better yet – given that you’re giving Black Magic 2 innings to lengthen the game – trust Loup to get out of the mess.

    That said, man were those pitches ever close.

  23. I bet the thing Gibby regrets most this morning is throwing one of his players under the bus. It was uncalled for and no doubt said in the heat of the moment. Im sure Gibby is just a frustrated as fack

  24. I was surprised Gibby didn’t bring in Janssen in in the 10th. He used both Janssen and Santos like that earlier this year.

  25. I actually liked the call at the time. I thought a grounder or fly ball would get them out of the inning. Not a walk fest. Lincoln looked like a deer in headlights with the game on the line. With Jansen still not 100%, and pitchers dropping like flies, he saved the first two games, and the last two starters didn’t combine for more than two innings. Rock and a hard place. But if Lincoln was able to get an out, then work another inning or two, and Jays take the lead, he looks like a genius. Ballsy move, and really feel like this was on Lincoln.

  26. Awesome, Ramon Ortiz is a little older than me.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *