May 9th v Rays

Batter pLI WPA
Davis – LF 1.46 0.166
Cabrera – DH 1.80 -0.226
Bautista – RF 1.40 0.098
Encarnacion – 1B 1.22 0.073
DeRosa – 2B 1.15 -0.033
Kawasaki – SS 1.16 -0.028 Pitcher pLI WPA
Lawrie – 3B 1.23 0.028 Dickey – SP 1.35 -0.028
Rasmus – CF 1.39 -0.087 Delabar – RP 1.40 -0.244
Izturis – 2B / SS 1.50 -0.066 Oliver – RP 2.21 0.278
Blanco – C 1.50 -0.078 Loup – RP 2.17 0.017
Arencibia – PH / C 1.16 0.028 Lincoln – RP 5.30 -0.399
Total 1.40 -0.123 Total 1.70 -0.377

Bests / Worsts of the game after the jump!

GBOOT: Darren Oliver, 27.8%
Griffin: Brad Lincoln, -39.9%
Impact At-Bat: Jose Bautista RBI Double, Top 3, 13.3%
Impact Pitch: Luke Scott Walkoff Walk(tm), Bot 10, -35.1%
Highest Leverage AB: Melky Cabrera Strikeout, Top 9, 4.30
Highest Leverage Opp. AB: Scott Shrimp, Bot 10, 6.40
Lineup Contribution: -12.3%
Pitching Contribution: -37.7%
Average Leverage Index: 1.55
Chart explanation

- R.A. Dickey’s line: 6.0ip, 5h, 2er, 5bb, 5k, 110 pitches, 14 swinging strikes, 52 game score, 3.81 FIP.

- David Price’s line: 8.0ip, 7h, 2er, 1bb, 8k, 117 pitches, 12 swinging strikes, 63 game score, 1.72 FIP.

- The Rays jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the 1st inning on an Evan Longoria RBI double and he was cashed in on a Matt Joyce single. The Jays cut the lead in half in the 2nd when Brett Lawrie drove in Edwin Encarnacion with a single up the middle. They took the lead an inning later with a Jose Bautista RBI double and follow up RBI single from Encarnacion. The Rays quickly tied it in the home half of the 3rd on a Blanco passed ball to James Loney that allowed Ben Zobrist to score.

- The Jays took the lead in the 5th after Rajai Davis stole 2nd and 3rd and scored on a Bautista sac fly. Dickey left after 6 in line for the win.

- Steve Delabar gave up a game tying solo shot on a 3-1 pitch to the first batter he faced, which happened to be Yunel Escobar. Darren Oliver came in with a runner on in the 8th and got 6 outs.

- Aaron Loup got the first two outs of the 10th before Longoria (so very good) doubled and Loup was asked to intentionally walk left-handed hitting Loney (??). Loup was then replaced with Brad Lincoln, who promptly walked Ryan Roberts to load the bases and Luke Scott to end the game.

- Davis reached base twice, stole two bases and scored two runs.

- Bautista had a pair of RBI and also gunned down Longoria trying to score in the 8th inning.

- Colby Rasmus struck out 3 times. He has struck out 50 times in 108 at bats and is on pace for 225 k’s this season, which would obliterate the team record of 159 held by Mayoral candidate Jose Canseco in 1998 and Kelly Johnson’s 2012 season. J.P. Arencibia is also on pace for over 200 k’s.

- The Jays tallied 8 hits. Melky Cabrera and Rasmus were the only starters to not record a hit, though Rasmus did draw the Jays only walk.

- This was just the 3rd time in MLB history that both reigning Cy Young winners faced each other in a regular season game.

- The Rays managed a series split, which means the Jays have not won a series in Tampa Bay since April 8th, 2007.

- The (13-23) Blue Jays now open a 3-game set against (21-14) Boston, who happen to hold a 3-way share of 1st in the AL East, 8.5 games up on the Jays.

- The series opening projected match-up is Ramon Ortiz (2.67FIP, 0.1fWAR) v Jon Lester (3.50FIP, 0.9fWAR). Ramon Ortiz is a Blue Jay still / again, FYI.

{All numbers via Fangraphs}

{gif offered as a sacrifice to the Shrimp Gods}

Comments (100)

  1. Nothing worse than fighting through falling asleep on the couch to see the opponent get a walk-off base on balls

  2. Still only won the one series all year. Splitting the four gamer in Tampa almost feels like a win based on how it’s gone there in recent years, and salvaging the last games of series to avoid the sweep has made them felt better than they were, I guess.

    But, yeah. One series win.

  3. Dun nearly pooped myself at the 3-2 count 2 out bottom of the 9th situation that Lincoln had.

    Y U NO THROW STRIKE

  4. Interesting question: what’s the all-time single-season record for strikeouts by a catcher? Considering they’re so often limited to 120-140 games, you’d expect it’s lower than most positions.

    • Jorge Posada, with 138 Ks as a catcher in in 2000. Mickey Tettleton was my first guess, but he DHed too much. His most as a catcher was 100.

      So it looks like JP will destroy this record by the middle of August.

  5. I’m starting to hope they actually lose so they get a good draft pick.

    Go Astros! Go Marlins!

    • Um, no. I don’t wanna take 120+ more games of this dog shit for a player that might pan out well years down the line. Doesn’t sound like good value.

      • Draft picks/strong farm system is the only thing Jays fans can ever look forward to. Don’t kid yourself.

        • Aren’t you a Jays fan?

          • Yes I am.

            Why finish middle of the pack? You realize this is what has fucked the Jays for 20 years right? If the Jays just fucking tanked properly, you know they could have a chance at players like Harper? Upton? Price? Strasburg?

            Nah bro, instead we got DECK FUCKING MCGUIRE.

            • A couple points, to continue engaging you on this:

              First, that is no long-term strategy for success. And please do not counter with TB because they have not had a top pick in some time. They’ve demonstrated they can make do without it.

              Second, I don’t like watching my team perform like this. I love baseball and I love the Jays. The dream of top picks riding into town on their white horses a half decade or more from now does not improve my Jays watching experience today.

              In short, I’d rather not go the route you propose.

              • They are making it with players from those high draft picks anchoring their team.

                • By my count there are 2 TB high draft picks on their 25-man; not enough. Are you saying that’s all the Jays need to be consistently competitive? What am I missing? Please be clear.

                  I suppose at the end of the day I would rather see a shitty team than a fraud team. Let’s agree to disagree.

            • Key word in all that is “chance”…that’s assuming the Jays had the scouts to pick the ideal player at that top pick, not to mention them actually signing, none of which is guaranteed.

              Having that top pick isn’t a winning lottery ticket…
              - ’08…Kansas selected Hochevar with their 1st while Longoria went 3rd. Hell, if they had the 4th pick they mightve selected Brad Walk-in-Winning-Run Lincoln.
              - Matt Bush went 1st to Tampa while Verlander was the next pick in ’04
              - Bryan Bullington went #1 in ’02.

              And there’s been some quality players mid- to late-round in the past decade and a bit…Hamels, Swisher, Trout, Cain, among others.

  6. My baseball soul for the year of 2013 is officially crushed…. Time to get excited for football season…. what’s that? Oh right I’m a cowboys fan…. just f**cking great….

  7. How gibbons managing doesnt get pointed ojut is beyond me three games in a row he has made rookie mistakes and announcers cover him. Dickey is done yet blanco gets on and is alloweed to run in tie game. Bonnifacio is on the bench any manager would switch he leaves him in. Annoucers say arencibia hasnt had time off slow runnig blanco dP JP arencibia is in later in game it is 7th innig im sure jp can handle going in hes young. He doesnt start runners when contact hitters are up and does when strikeout hitters are ie izturiz getting thrown out to end inning when you have ist 3 one out in close game. Questionable defnece lineups changing lineups

    • I’m sure a guy who can barely spell and has probably never managed even a tball team is a great source of advice.

      Has it ever occurred to you that your OPINIONS of what Gibbons should do are just OPINIONS. You say “rookie mistakes” as if it is as black and white as overthrowing a cutoff man or dropping a pop up. l

      • Obviously I agree his grammar and spelling are awful, but he does have good points the whole way around; he just can’t express them properly.

  8. I have a feeling that the only way the Jays win tonight is if they remove the lumber from their posterior regions and hit a lot of balls over the fence. Otherwise its going to be a bad night to watch baseball for TO fans.

  9. time to start tearing this team down let Lind, the clown at second base go get rid of most the the coaching staff, time to look at the outfield, great defensive center fielder but can’t hit time to look to next year sad to see but I think Jo Jo maybe all we get out of the trade

  10. It boggles the mind as to how Loup and Lincoln got into this game before Janssen. If the save stat didn’t exist, would Janssen have pitched? If the game kept going for a while, do you go to Ramon Ortiz before Janssen because it’s still tied?

    • And what’s up with the Loup IBB of a LHB? No seriously, what’s up?

        • That is counting on too much happening; I agree, Loup should have pitched to Loney, there was two outs already. Janssen should have been warming up and ready to go in case they got a runner in scoring position.

          • If you’re looking at his .476 vs lefties, that’s fine but what about his .229 with RISP? Also, what lefties were those? Loup was throwing great, just because he allowed a double to Longo doesn’t mean much, he has been hitting everything thrown his way.

            • Gibby was yelling from the dugout to pitch away from Longo. Loup made a mistake and left one out over the plate which was hit off the wall for a double. With first open and a hot hitter, Gibby chose to IBB him to allow for a force at any bag and to bring in the righty to pitch to Roberts who hasa tough time with rightys. Lincoln walked a guy who hits 152 and 211 vs right handers.Another mistake. Then Lincoln goes 0-2 on Scott and after getting robbed on strike 3, ends up walking him.Big mistake by Lincoln.
              Strategy by Gibby was sound. Lincoln didn’t execute. He coulda thrown 3 cock shots and got either Roberts or Scott for the third out.

          • the problem with quoting both those Splits (for Loney and for Roberts) is that they’re only for 2013. In his career Loney has bad splits against LHP.

            I like Gibby and defend him from the people saying he should be fired but he fucked up last night. Given there was two out, he should’ve had Loup pitch to Loney.

            • Loup was supposed to pitch outside to Longo and didn’t.So Gibby’s supposed to let Loup make another mistake to Loney when you got a 211 hitter vs rightys coming up?
              Especially with first open?
              C’mon, I can’t see it.

              • OK Radar, even if we go with you on that one, is that how we’re doing things now? We’re yelling our strategies against great hitters from the dugout? I’m not buying that. It still doesn’t explain why Gibby wasn’t thinking ahead and didn’t have a righty already warming up in the pen at the beginning of the inning to face Longoria then. It doesn’t add up, and no matter how I look at it, I don’t get the lack of Janssen. Maddon had Rodney out there in the ninth trying to keep the game close so they had a chance to win. He simply did not use his pen correctly in a crucial game in extra innings.

                Yes, the lack of strikes is on Lincoln, but he’s not really supposed to be used in those situations, and in my opinion he didn’t have enough time to get warm.

                • http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/wilner-was-holding-back-janssen-the-right-call/

                  If Lincoln throws strikes, there’s no problem.
                  Why waste Janssen against Roberts and Scott?
                  He wasn’t warmed up enough but went 0-2 on Scott?
                  Strategy was correct,execution wasn’t.

                  • Thats just it. Counting on Lincoln to throw strikes is a HUGE mistake by Gibbons.

                    If loup is not trusted to get out a lefty, then he shouldnt be up here. period. end.

                    its not just about the hitter, its also about the pitcher. Loup is simply a better pitcher than that piece of shit lincoln.

                    He made a mistake to longoria so he shouldn’t be trusted to pitch to a lefty? can you imagine if you applied that rationale to every pitcher in every game?

                    • Check the splits on Roberts and realize there’s two outs,a runner on second and first base is open.

        • Thank you…

  11. I missed why they yanked RAD. Was there a reason or just Gibby guessing it was a great idea? Dont mind Delabar but wasnt Dickey pitching well enough to at least go 7?

    • no he wasn’t. his pitch count was over 100 and he had walked something like 4 out of the last 9 batters he faced.

      • He was walking guys over the 6 innings he pitched and 100 pitches for a knuckleballer is nothing. I would’ve stayed with him.

        • he walked four in his last three innings and was consistently struggling to locate the knuckleball in the zone. he threw over 30 pitches in the fifth inning alone.

          by any knowledgeable baseball fan’s understanding of pitching, he was struggling in his last few innings.

          110 pitches is what he tossed so why don’t you throw 110 pitches at 80 mph and when your arm is dangling off his socket, tell us it’s nothing?

  12. This one hurt. With us taking the first 2 games I was really thinking we were going to win 3 out of 4 then go for 2 out of 3 against a struggling Red Sox Team.

    Now our initial 2 wins are cancelled out by our losses and we’re throwing a token warm body out against Lester tonight.

    We’re only 8.5 back but with all the teams to catch, Still hoping for a 500 team near the end of June…..but I’m starting to lose faith.

  13. I would have rather seen a walk off grand slam. Horrible loss.

    • Absolutely! Man watching him walk those two batters was horrible. Especially since he was ahead of Luke Scott, and then the ump fucked that third strike. I’m not willing to take Lincoln off the hook for that though, it’s his job to throw a strike in that situation.

      • It wasn’t a third strike though, it was a ball. This wasn’t one of the umps from the first two games.

        • Well this I disagree with. Maybe being biased and in the moment I saw it wrong, but that seemed like a pretty sweet pitch to me, and could easily have been called strike 3. Perhaps I need to see it again.

          • Brooks has it as outside of the zone, however, Price got about 4/7 pitches in that rough location called for strikes earlier in the game (too hard to compare with Dickey). So take it or leave it. Certainly looked like a good pitch

  14. You can’t be expected to win more games than you lose when you have 4 starters (CF, 2B, SS and DH) who are platoon guys at best. Lind and Rasmus just don’t inspire confidence when they are at the plate. Rasmus hits the odd mistake, much like Arencibia does but his massive strikeout numbers are downright pathetic. Lind looks like an automoton at the plate and it looks like he is praying to get 4 crappy pitches so that he can take the walk. I enjoy watching the team play but I am also a realist and acknowledge that it is highly unlikely they are going to make the playoffs with the currently constructed roster. An impact DH and 2B will be needed for next year, together with more starting pitching if they hope to compete.

    • I agree with the gaps at 2b and DH but Rasmus has the defence in CF that makes up for a less-than effective bat.

      He has to hit no higher than 8th though. Seeing him come up to bat right after our production guys and so far from the turnaround to the top of the batting order is deflating.

      • You can win with platoon starters if you platoon them.

      • Rasmus defense is so overrated around here. Three balls went over his head in this series that he should have caught. You people just THINK he’s a great CF because you are comparing him to shittier Jays alternatives like Rajai Davis and bonafacio instead of actual quality CF.

        • I remember two of them,one a line shot which is extremely hard to judge and the second went to the deepest part of the park where it indents into the seats.both very difficult.
          Rasmus is an excellent defender who strikes out too much.
          It is what it is.

    • Tampa uses platoons liberally and they normally win…

  15. Let’s assume that the off-season trades didn’t happen. Let’s also assume that AA resigns Charlie V – just because he would have to sign someone to be a 5th starter. In this case our rotation would be:

    Morrow
    Romero
    Alvarez
    Happ
    Charlie V

    and we would still have in the minors (none of which are ready for the majors):
    Anthony DeSclafani
    Justin Nicolino
    Syndergaard

    In this case we still have a shitty rotation with no immediate depth in the minors. The way it is now, we have a better rotation on paper, and no depth in the minors.

    I know AA assumed that Happ was going to be his insurance policy in the minors, but after that there was clearly no plan in place. Was M. Batista and Dave Bush his emergency back up plan? You have to know for a fact that you will not get through the entire season with 5 starters as multiple SP’s will need time on the DL (see Blue Jays, 2012) – so why was there no plan in place?

    • I would have happily taken back charlie v. The guy was a good pitcher. I dont know how much money he got from the cubs but I doubt it was very significant. Should have been resigned if the jays consider themselves a large market or even mid market team. He was an important piece because of the versatility he offered.

    • I’m guessing he was relying on a certain amount of luck as well. I mean, was he counting on Dickey and Morrow having sore backs? No. Happ being beaned in the noodle with a line drive? No. You can’t account for the lack of luck we have been having with our SP. Also, there was McGowan supposedly being ready, and we know how that went. He also has Drabek and Hutch coming back at some point.

      • Come on man. Dustin McGowan? If he was relying on McGowan to be ready to pitch at the major league level, he should be fucking slapped.

        • I’m not saying that isn’t the case, maybe he should be slapped. He obviously had some faith in him though because he signed him to an extension. It is one of the few glaring mistakes I feel AA is directly responsible for.

    • He could have paid Charlie V starter money and kept him as a long man. But that ship sailed after he talked shit.

      • I agree, you can’t let a player call the shots, or soon you find yourself out of a job. He played hardball with Oliver too, and it panned out. Charlie V just happened to be a bigger dickhead. He can go ahead and pitch for the sad sack Cubbies if he wants.

  16. Wow listen to yourselves. I’ve been as guilty of this shit as anyone but last night at least they played reasonable b/ball and kept themselves in the game. I was mad as hell that the winning run was walked in but that could have happened at any time to any team and it’s no reason to start yelling about the end of the 2013 season. The team I saw play yesterday was nothing like as listless and uninvolved as the team I’ve watched since April. If they don’t make the playoffs this year they may well next year. Have you forgotten two come-from-behind wins in difficult circumstances at the beginning of the week? They may be turning it around.

    • To some,it’s easier to whine and get attention.

    • I dont know..because maybe this isn’t college and “ye old college try” doesn’t really do it for fans of pro sports teams?

      maybe because this team is supposed to contend, and added on really terrible backloaded contracts like Buehrle’s AND trade away top prospects in order to “go for it” and yet you would have us clapping our hands for a team winning two games out of four vs tampa, who is also struggling?

      in the words of chris rock “low expectation havin’ ######”

      • It’s the high expectations that are killing us and we’ve been here before. I was unhappy about those expectations because so far on this team I have not seen them fulfilled since 1993. There have been other times when the front office has ‘gone for it’ and nothing transpired. Obviously I’m disappointed and mad that the team we paid so much for has turned into a disaster. But I am yet hopeful that they will turn it around. Maybe because hope is all there is that’s left!

        But yesterday’s loss, while painful, was nowhere near as bad as some of the losses we’ve had this season. I realize that being thankful they at least stayed in the game is in itself an indictment of this bunch of under-achievers. But, baby steps. A lot of these guys have played NL ball and are finding the AL a short sharp shock.

    • It’s all well and good to say that two come from behind wins are positive, but to be honest you don’t want to have to win ball games that way. You can’t count on being able to go down seven runs and come back to win it; it just doesn’t happen that way.

      It’s also interesting to note a lot of people on here that attacked commenters for being reactionary when we lost 10 of 12, are the same people being reactionary because we won two games against Tampa Bay wherein we got incredibly lucky at times, i.e the Escobar errors. It swings both ways, people.

      I want the Jays to win, but the only place I’ve seen real progress lately is from Melky, who went 0/5 lat night, and maybe Rajai and Maicer hitting a little better. I’m not at all ready to drink the kool-aid on Cletus; he still struck out 3 times last night, better AB’s or not.

  17. FML

  18. It’s easy to look at the record and wonder how we got 10 games below .500, but the schedule has been very tough so far.

    How about it Getting Blanked? A writing assignment analyzing the schedule so far and what we can expect upcoming?

    • Only the schedule doesn’t get better, it gets worse. There are very few bad teams in the AL this year, and we don’t play them that much. That was known from the jump.

      If we are waiting for some 10 out of 15 game stretch where we play the astros, its not going to happen.

      Really? who are the bad teams?

      ok, the white sox; played them and split.

      houston: dont play them much at all.

      minnesota: hmm. maybe not terrible.

      cleveland: actually decent with the pick ups of swisher and bourn..shit even mark reynolds is raking over there.

      seattle: lost 2/3.

      thats about it.

      the schedule is not going to get easier my friends.

  19. Fuck Colby Rasmus

  20. See what we did there last night to the angels?

  21. Gibbons was pissed at Loup for refusing to walk longoria.

    He threw the first one knee high over the middle. Ump calls a ball because JPA caught it like it was a grenade.

    Camera cuts to gibbons and he is pissed, and shouts something that buck thought was “keep it away from him”. Maybe buck even heard it, there were only a handful of people at the trop.

    Count goes 2-0 and he throws another strike which longo hammered. Gibbons was visibly pissed and thought fuck you loup, I’m not letting you pitch to a lefty. I’ll bring in Lincoln

  22. Are the Jays really going with Ramon Ortiz today? Is this a joke?

    This guy has posted negative WAR is SEVEN seasons! And now he’s like 50 or something. Are things so bad that the Jays can’t get replacement level players to fill in for injuries? The replacement level bar is not set particularly high.

  23. Maybe they should trade for David Price. Apparently Tampa wants to trade him…

  24. F M LLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL

  25. Noah Syndegard had a 1.61 ERA in the minors this year. I’m starting to like Dickey less and less.

    • D’Arnaud also has another broken bone though. I’m beginning to think he’s gonna be on of those players who never gets the chance to have much of a career because he’s always injured. Especially as a catcher.

    • I wonder what Dickey’s ERA would be pitching against minor league batters. Just saying…

  26. I missed most of yesterday’s game because the Habs were on tv.

    Beeston is still optimistic and assured hay hurst there would be no fire sale. On the podcast. Stoeten’s & drew have conceded that the jays ste f$$$ckd. They have accepted reality. The team still has a chance to finish above 80 wins.

    Kawasaki says we should go to games and drink beer and shout. So that’s what I will do.

    The team could get into the playoffs in 2014.

    Bier hole can pitch better.

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